The PGA TOUR is at Black Desert Resort in Utah for a second consecutive season. We are going through the key course stats to help you make your picks and bets this week
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Year number two of the PGA Tour going to the state of Utah last year at Black Desert Resort. It was Matt McCarti coming away the victor at 23 under par. What did he do so well last season to get that win and how does it correlate this year at Black Desert Resort? That’s what we’ll talk about picks predictions here on the golf bet round table. Chris Bree, Will G Gray, Jimmy Reinman, and guys, we have a lot to dissect on a very unique course this week. Will Yeah, I would say so. Listen, the three of us are all based in Florida. That does not look like a Florida golf course. It’s not anything that I am very familiar with. We’re playing golf on Mars this week, Jimmy. It is a fun landscape. Uh for the TV viewers at home, a different test than what our guys are used to seeing week in and week out, but it should be a good one this week. Yeah, certainly a different look than um what we’re used to. but one that was met with a pretty warm welcome last year. I heard a lot of good feedback just on the scenes. Um I was just at French Lick Resort two weeks ago for the corn freight board championship and that was very p picturesque too. So some good uh some good landscape on our recent golf menu. Yeah, we’re spanning the globe. Chris, I I believe it was Matt McCart’s third start on the PGA Tour when he won last year. You’re not going to see him anywhere near the top of this odds board. What do you think of this, Will? Alex Norn, of course, played really well in Europe recently. He’s been making a comeback. Kurt Kyama’s won recently. Davis Thompson hasn’t won in a year. We’ll get to him. But Matt McNeely and Michael Thorbjornson, no no no brainers at the top there. Yeah, I think McNeely is an interesting uh prospect there as a betting favorite. We’ve talked for so long about when is he going to get that that Maiden PGA Tour win. It was last year at the fall at the RSM that he got it done. He translated that into some pretty good form in the early part of 2025. And we’re kind of rounding into that portion or that discussion for another Stanford guy in Thorp Bjornen who uh is not quite as decorated as Matt was in terms of longevity of career, but absolutely at this point uh seems to be knocking on the door of win number one. Yeah, Thor Bjornson being up there, he’s been just been dancing around. It feels like that breakthrough performance and we’ve seen that kind of coming. He’s been a hot betting pick throughout the FedEx Cup fall and one that has been on a lot of sheets going into this weekend. He’s got all the tools. And could we have another uh first time winner like we did last year with Matt? Does his game correlate to this course? Let’s talk about this course and the big stats that we found last year and Matt McCarti’s victory. This is kind of twofold here, guys. We’re going to look at the way this course played last year and only one year sample size uh for the 2024 season. It’s very interesting. This is one of two courses on tour the entire year. this and worldwide technology in Mexico were it ranked in the top three in both easiest fairways to hit and easiest greens to hit. Second easiest fairways to hit, third easiest greens to hit. So, Will, when you when you talk about that, automatically your mind goes to it doesn’t matter where you drive the golf ball. But how true do you think that is this week? Uh, moderately true. I I know Jimmy’s done some digging on this, but as I’m looking at these landscapes, I’m seeing a lot of brown and black. There’s not It’s not like you’re uh in the Bermuda ryrass rough out here in Utah. If you do stray, you could really be uh facing uh a tough spot or potentially a penalty stroke. So, uh it’s pretty wide targets, relatively speaking, by PJ Tour standards for both the fairways and the greens. But I do think, Jimmy, that for those that do stray, we found that at least last year in a one-year sample size, uh, you tended to pay a penalty more often than not. Yeah, that that’s I think um a little bit more to that cuz I feel like this course can play firm and fast out of the fairway. And while a lot of guys did end up in the fairway, there is a lot of danger if you do enter those runoffs because then you get into that, you know, black lava rock where I read that there was over 200 penalties associated with it last year on four. So, we have to kind of monitor where your ball runs off if it starts to move. But, um, with if it is able to play firm and fast, I think driving accuracy is going to be a little more important step this week than just pure distance. Last year’s first round was really unique. Of course, many of these guys are playing this week for the first time last year. 84 players shot 69 or better in the first round last year and then that plummeted way down in the second round. Let’s talk about Matt McCarti and what he did so well because putting we say every week, Will, what do I say? The winner putts fantastic every week. But this stat on Mccardi, I want you you to walk us through how big putting is going to be this week. Because if Mccardi gained 1.65 strokes putting per round, that’s six and a half strokes on the field. There’s basically the entire average of of of the the margin that he won by over the rest of the field. But you look at his average feet of putts made on the week, it was barely any better than the field was that week. So, what do you make of the putting stat and how big it was for Mccardi last year? Anytime you have a winning score that’s going to get into the mid20s under par, you’re going to have to make more than your fair share of putts, which honestly uh scares me a little bit based on my outright pick that we’ll get to later, but I digress. Uh, you know, he took the scenic route last year. He made a ton of putts in the opening round in route to a 62. Made over a 100 feet of putts. Matt McCarti actually lost strokes gained uh or lost strokes uh to the field in putting in the final round, but by then he had built up a pretty good lead and and he had some room to to deal with that margin for error. So uh he took a bit of a scenic route to those stats that we saw. I do think at the end of the day, if these targets are, you know, relatively reachable, the greens are going to be uh relatively susceptible to to accurate approaches, you’re going to have to roll in your your 10, 15, 20 footers to a certain extent because uh the ball striking can only take you so far. Uh as we saw last year, McCarti was able to combo both. I mean, he was on a an absolute heater, Jimmy, last year coming in off that three- win promotion on the Cornferry Tour. As Chris said, this was his second or third start on the PJ tour. didn’t quite go wire to wire because Adam Spencson shot a 60 in the opening round, but uh did everything other than going wire to wire last year in what was an impressive performance. Yeah, I mean he was coming in hot and he maintained that especially with the flat stick. I am a little worried about while he has kept up there this season with uh his strokes gained putting he’s dropped off significantly with his approach play down to 108th and while these greens are big and easy to hit being a resort course still still got to get it somewhere up there. So, I’m worried if he can get it close enough to even have the ability to get hot this year. And are we worried at all about his maybe some shell shock coming off that end to the Bay current championship when he had a chance to shoot shoot 58 and uh pumped one OB off the final T? I know uh takes a lot of takes a lot of uh skill to even be in that position. But, you know, maybe he’s uh maybe he’s just looking a little bit extra on at his ball this week. Yes. The most regrettable 60 of all time potentially. It’s a good problem to have. Good problem to have. God, I’d hate to have that problem. So, let’s let’s get into some picks here. The folks might notice who watch the show on a weekly basis. Will’s kind of been going outside the box on some of his prop picks lately. You’ve been successful. You’ve you’ve had some failures. You’ve had a lot of success. I think here’s one this week. What’s the thought process on this Ryan Gerard first round prop? We are focusing on Thursday. So, I’m going to take, listen, this is a a player we have so many, as we get into the heart of the FedEx Cup fall that are really sweating that top 100 bubble. It’s so important when determining status and eligibility for 2026. Ryan Gerard is not one of those guys, right? He won the Barracuda. He’s got a two-year exemption. He’s doing just fine. Uh, when you look into his 2026 schedule, so now you’re able to freewheel a little bit on during a week when other guys might be a bit more uh, you know, tense or cautious. Brian Jordan is 11th uh in first round scoring average this season on the PGA Tour, has gotten off to a ton of hot starts and is a guy that, as we saw at the CUDA and as we’ve seen at other events, has a pension to go low. So, I don’t know that he’s going to stay in the top 10 for the entire week, Chris. But I do like the idea of him getting off to a hot start as we saw last year. Again, small sample size, just one year, but in order to be in the top 10 last year at this event after round one, you had to, I think, shoot a 64. I mean, you got to go really low really fast. Uh, so I do think Ryan Gerard fits the bill as one of the fastest starters this season on the PJ tour, especially when you’re talking about guys that are in the field this week for Utah. I’m thinking about, you know, recent winners on the tour, Jimmy, and I’m looking at Ryan Gerard’s numbers, albeit a top 10, you’re going to have harder difficulty on odds, but plus 550 for a top 10 after one round. just in general too, Ryan Gerard’s not getting the respect that a lot of these even winners who we’ve seen two years ago on tour that that Ryan Gerard’s number is not as great. I’m a little confused why he’s not a better odd up there. Yeah, I’m with you. Ryan Gerard’s a big name that we kind of saw percolating for a long time leading into this before his win at the alternate event. and to get that kind of price for him, especially in the early tournament where he has seen a lot of success and has, you know, all the talent in the world, especially with this um, you know, field lacking a lot of star power and a lot of pedigree. I think that he is I mean 550 for him to be in the top 10, that’s something I’d be all over. So, we got a that round one prop for Will. Jimmy, walk us through this is a top 20 prop for Patrick Fishburn. You want to talk about odds that you think should be way better. And I get it. The guy is still trying to figure out how to win, but this is a simple top 20 for you. Yeah, I mean, I love this bet, especially for that price. Patrick Fishburn’s a guy that was talked about a ton coming off the corn free tour and has obviously had his struggles, but has really started to round into shape recently. He’s made eight straight cuts. So, he while ranking fifth on poor in greens and regulation percentage with these big greens, he’s going to have a chance to go low. Uh he’s a local guy, a Utah guy, and a BYU product coming off a big win in the Holy War. So, little bit of strokes gain vibe there. I love that this we’re right on the holy war territory. So, you’re going to have some some divisive opinions among the Utons in this field. I hope I’m saying that right. But, uh yeah, I like the made cut point that you that you emphasized there. The T8 at Windham certainly stands out, but in three starts uh in the fall, he has been consistent. He’s getting into those, you know, high 60s, low 70s, and giving himself a chance to then move up the board as you’re going to need to do over the weekend. And he’s a really powerful player. And while we kind of talked about how it might not be distance that gets it done this week and might just be overall driving, he still ranks within that realm of uh total driving that I think a top 20 is definitely a great value. I will say Chris before before we move on, he is though in that zone 98th in in FedEx Cup points. So he’s one of those guys that I’m sure especially with the Utah ties has this one circled as all right, if there’s four events left in the season, this is one where I can really make a move. So he’s going to potentially try and have his foot a little bit more on the gas. Yeah, I mean if if he responds to the pressure well, he’s probably a guy you want to bet in the future because, you know, he has that it factor if he has the ability to play under that pressure. I was just going to say shout out to all of us who had uh BYU plus three and a half to beat uh Utah last weekend, let alone Colani Sitake, he’s coaching them up, man. They’re they’re they’re under the radar. Quality program. I was one of them, by the way. I don’t know if you were as well. Uh okay. Kind of built like that big quarterback there, Bear. We’re getting we’re getting knocked off. No, keep going. He wanted to make this a college football show. I’m sure we could probably make some people money more so than we do on the golf course. I I was going to say my my pick Doug Gim. Um I do not like the way he is putting this year. He’s losing strokes. It’s not terrible, but he’s still losing strokes on the field. I love his tea to green game right now. He is the best player in this field statistically in strokes gain te to green. You’re going to need that. I don’t care if his driver is poor as long as it’s not playing that tight as Jimmy may have may have referenced early. This is a top 20 again. Pretty good odds plus 240 odds for for Doug Gim. You want to talk about four rounds. I like Doug Gim to have enough chances, Will, to get those birdie putts that are not too bad. They’re makeable and have enough chances to make enough birdies for top 20 is all I need. I mean, the stats are there from a ball striking perspective. 10th strokes gained TA Green 17th strokes gained approach this season. Uh I cannot I can’t fault you for taking a ball striker that you hope has a decent putting weight because that’s definitely the the blueprint that I’m going with in the outright market. Uh I would have liked to have seen a few higher finishes from from Doug. I know you’re shooting for that top 20. He hasn’t had a ton of top fives, top 10s. There have been a few 18th 19th. So I think if you’re going to cash this, you might be squeaking one out by a shot or two on Sunday. But the ball streak and bonafides are there for sure. Yeah, it’s funny that you bring up Doug Gim because he was kind of someone as I was looking into some course comparisons. I saw a lot of TPC Summerland lining up this week with the Black Desert Resort and Doug Gim was a guy who’s always played well there. But I w I kind of almost wish that you would have done maybe a first round here cuz as as a self-proclaimed as a self-proclaimed gimme in the Doug Gim fan club, um he likes to kind of trail off after the cut. So, we can see if he uh maybe this is the week that he sticks around. Maybe maybe I’ll I’m going to look for those odds while uh Will gives us his winner pick. You don’t like the putting you’re on Rico Hoey. I’m proud of you, Will, for sticking to your guns cuz you know that’s my thing. I am. I’m I’m doubling down, maybe tripling down, quadrupling down at this point. I mean, listen, every everything I had to try and pick Rico Hoey for an outright a couple weeks ago has only gotten stronger because this guy is starting to actually putt uh decently. He’s not going to be the world’s best putter anytime soon. Still 171st in putting uh on the PJ tour this season, but two out of the last three starts. He’s been inside the top 10. Played really well in Japan. And Chris, those ball striking numbers are off the charts. He’s just the best ball striker uh for my money in the field this week. He’s inside the top 10 uh on a on a bunch of different metrics from that, whether you’re looking at approach or TD Green, what have you. And I just need him to have a decent week with that flat stake or the long putter or whatever. Maybe he’s going to putt with a shovel this week. I don’t know. Um, but you know, the ball striking is too good for me to look the other way. It’s tough to back him at this short of a number knowing he’s among those top favorites that you mentioned at the start of the show, but I just really feel like he’s trending in the right direction. And he doesn’t need that much to go right or to go his way on the greens in order for that ball striking to shine through and get him a win. Wasn’t there a player in March of 2024, right before Bay Hill, where people were saying he couldn’t putt and all of a sudden he figured out how to putt? I’m not I’m not ready to go to go there yet. I need I need more from Rico before we start pulling the the Sheffler footage. Maybe Roy Moy tells Rico Hoey to start using a mallet putter. But uh I mean the ball striking is there. He there are not a lot of guys that can say I can go toe-to-toe with Scotty Sheffler Ta Green on the PJ tour in 2025. Rico Hoey might be in that conversation. Yeah, on PJ tour.com, Rico Hoey has by by far my favorite strokes game, Pentagon. Um I’m not sure it’s like a name. Yeah, there’s an amputation that happened there. Yeah, we’re we’re still looking for a name to describe that shape, but he mentioned that it it’s been getting better. It it can’t get any worse. And you know, he’s been hearing all the noise about this because people have been lauding him. kind of his stat profile has gone viral recently. Just like, hey, like this guy is absolutely flushing it, but cannot get the ball in the hole. So, you know, he’s trying different things. He’s got to be trying different putters. You’ve got to be trying different strokes. Maybe he’s going to close his eyes this week, but it it it has to happen eventually, right? That’s what that’s what you want to hear. Uh it can’t get any worse for a guy that you’re picking to win. It has gotten better, though, to be fair. It has definitely gotten materially better over the last few weeks, and the results have followed. T4 bay current T9 three starts to go at the Pro Core and so I do think that there’s reason for optimum that rationale is and not that my pick’s a bad putter but that rationale is similar to what I’m doing with Michael Thorjornson on two two fronts here will I’m sticking to my guns backtoback weeks on Thor Bjornson third place by the way behind Xander a couple of weeks ago in Japan this is not the time to go off of Michael Thorbjornson for me if I feel like he’s going to win one because of the field. I don’t love the number, but it’s because of his talent in the field. That’s why he’s 16 to1. If he’s going to have a breakout, I feel like it’s going to be at a week like this where he’s knocking on the door. He’s getting more confident. He’s playing these new courses these guys mostly have not seen. I like Thor Bjornson now when he’s already hot and in form well than I would say maybe in February or March when he’s going to be playing other players and all these courses are very familiar for these guys who’ve been on tour for 10 years. He hasn’t been along around that much. I like Thor’s game all around. I think he’s the most talented player in this field this week. 16 to1 is not great, but this guy’s going to win soon and I don’t want to back off right now. I I do think there’s some merit to if you feel like the guy’s going to win, look back to what McNeely did last year. Eventually, that win usually will come. Uh I I look back to the Rocket Classic for Michael Thorjornson and coming so close, you know, missing that playoff by a shot and and how do you respond as a young player to that sort of close call and he has steamrololled things from from there and has played really good golf? five out of his last top eights, including that T4, uh, at the at the Rocket Classic, or five of his last eight results have been inside the top 25. So, uh, I I do think that there is is reason to really like where he’s going and clearly he’s he’s trending in the right direction. Now, it’s a matter of can you put together 72 holes instead of 54, 63, or 65. Yeah, I think Thor Bjöson is just kind of settling into being a PJ tour professional. I mean, he comes in, he almost wins the Travelers as an amateur, and he just doesn’t have that kind of immediate success that people might have thought he had like a Levig Oberg or a Nick Dunlap. And now we even see with those guys like Levig and Nick just how it they struggle once actually being out here. And Michael didn’t have that first b first when he got his tour card, but now he’s really settling in and we’re seeing his name a lot more on the leaderboards. Chris, does it bother you? I noticed that he’s a prodigious driver of the golf ball, but he is a little bit worse in accuracy and I could I could see that coming into coming into factor this week. Yeah, I mean the the fact that his you know his proximity to the hole is not going to be what a lot of the other guys on the leaderboard will be statistically. Maybe maybe he’ll do better this week, but Thor Bjornson is he’s on a streak right now where does he care if he’s putting from 12 feet out or 25 ft out? I think the guy’s got it right now. Uh, you’re going to have to make like 28 birdies this week if you’re going to win. I would put Thor near the top of my list of guys who I think are going to make a ton of birdies. Yeah, I no doubt that you’re going to have to rack them and stack them this week. you know, whether you’re hitting it close and rolling in from there or you’re taking advantage of, as you said, some of the resort style uh setup and and the larger greens because you’re going to have to get to at least 20 under maybe 22 or 23 where McCarti landed last year uh to have a chance. So, it’s uh Jimmy’s first week with us here on the round table. I’m coming out here on camera because he’s going to give his pick. Uh and just to preface, I didn’t tell him to make this pick. I didn’t ask him who he was picking. Uh he’s picking the guy who I love to pick. He’s He’s gotten me a victory before. Davis Thompson, my friend. What do you got here for us? Yeah. So, I didn’t quite realize how much scar tissue there was here with um with my guy Davis. But we’re going with David Thompson. This Davis Thompson this week, mostly because when I was looking at this course, as I mentioned before, I was trying to find courses that kind of line up well with this design. And I was seeing a lot of TPC Summerland in the sense that it rewards guys who are good total drivers, but not necessarily the guys who hit it the furthest. Um we’re looking at same bench grass greens and around that same elevation with that desert gold. So guys who played well at Summerland, Patrick Can uh Tom Kim. So great control with the driver and have the ability to get hot with the putter on bent crash grids. So it also lines up a little bit with the American Express. So when you kind of look at who’s played well with those tournaments, um you look at Davis Thompson five at the Shriners last year and also that solo runner runner up at the MX back in 2023. So, another interesting thing is that when I was looking at this tournament, the LPGA had their Black Desert Championship here back in May and Honu won that tournament and she ranks number one on the LPGA in strokes gained approach. Do you know what she ranks on the LPJ in putting? 152nd. She’s the top player on approach and she ranks 152nd in putting. So that kind of gives you that we just need to get it up there, you know, and and if you can get it done with the putter enough, you got to get hot. And Davis Thompson is a guy that when he gets hot, he can go low like we saw at the John Deere when he got his win. Um, so you also have the factor that he’s sitting right on that bubble to get into the AON Next 10. He’s 75th in the FedEx Cup standings, so he knows what a good performance, maybe even a win this week, could could mean for him. And he’s actually been I know Chris you probably poured over his numbers and and felt the damage from it, but he’s been pretty consistent and he’s coming off of three finishes of T11, T19, and T-21 with five top 25s in his last eight starts. So he ranks top he ranks inside the top 15 off the T. And while the putting has been a problem, he ranks 143rd. I’m going with that, you know, LPGA stat and his ability to get hot. And I think um with you know the pedigree of this field lacking a lot of PJ tour winners I think he knows what it takes to get it done on Sunday. Well all our guys a comprehensive handicap there Chris. He he left no stone unturned. We’re going PGA to LPJ. We’re spanning the spectrum geographic analysis. You know passing the vibes test. Everything’s there. Well the reason why I I brought it up the way I did is because I truly I often try to find a place for Davis Thompson in my card. uh for the reasons that I feel like he’s the kind of guy who can suddenly get hot and when he gets hot, you made the point, he stays hot. You think about when he won at the John Deere last year, that was the third of three straight top 10s for him and the week before should have won at the Rocket Classic and didn’t. So, he’s a kind of guy who I say, “Okay, he’s playing well. He’s going to keep playing well.” But I haven’t seen that so far this year. That’s why I was laughing at you earlier in the day saying I I want to pick him sometime, but this week it’s not for me, which means I’ll probably win this week. Well, Davis, another Davis 25, right? Yeah. And well, he’s only missed one cut in his career in the FedEx Cup fall as well, and that was in 2021. So, it might maybe he’s just a maybe he’s just a crisp weather guy. Georgia Bulldog is Georgia Bulldogs won this week. So, yeah, we got a lot of things working for us here. Moral of the story of our picks this week, we’re all pitting like the the worst putters in the world. Is that what we’re doing? We’re acting like it. Roll with the ball striking. Be decent on the greens, Chris. That’s all you need. I need help. [Music]
