After cashing yet another winner with Xander Schauffele at +1100 at the Baycurrent Classic, we have our best bets from the Dimers predictive model for the Bank of Utah Championship in Ivins, UT.
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FedEx Cup fall is back. This is the fourth event of the fall. What are we looking at for the Bank of Utah Championship? Yeah, so pretty excited to get back into it after a week off. We cashed Xander Scuffley at plus, 1100 in the last tournament, Bay Current Classic. Uh it’s our second outright win and third if you played Griffin without Sheffller at the Oh, which one was that? I forgot the name of the tournament, excuse me, but uh or played Sheffler at his short odds in that one. But over the past four events, we picked three winners uh and at least one ladder play. So, models firing and we got a bunch of edges on this one. I’m going to bring up the predictions here and then we’ll just run through our top picks all around. So, we’re going to Utah uh Black Desert Resort Golf Course. Uh 7,421 yard par 70. This is a really unique layout because it is literally carved into lava rock. Uh, it’s a treeless golf course. There’s red rocks all around. It’s really beautiful. It’s brutal. If you miss the fairway because you’re probably bouncing off the rocks and stuff, but it played as a birdie fest last year. I would expect low scores again, even though it’s about 50 yards longer. I think they added about 25 yards on one hole and split the difference on some other three. So, should be pretty much the same. Uh, big big stats here are putting probably most important. The greens can get a little crazy. uh approach from higher distances and off the tea where you want to prioritize accuracy over distance. Uh and I’m just going to run through our value bets real quick here. You can see them in the predictions on the screen. Uh and I’m just going to talk about each of these guys real quick. Uh first up is Maverick McNeely. He’s the tournament favorite and the model favorite. Not uncommon that we see that, but he’s got a nice little edge. He’d be fair at plus 1025. You can get him plus 1,600. He’s got a little edge at top 10 and top five as well. Solid form with a third place at the BMW Championship. Uh T13 in his only event of the fall. Seven top 10s this year. 21st in putting, 55th off the tea. Not the best on approach, but his distance should shorten up these holes. That’s our best bet uh based on value and probability. Uh second, our second guy, Alex Norin, 6.3% plus 2,000, a favorite of the Dimer’s model, fair at plus,500 here. He gets a top 20 edge at plus money, and he’s only one of two guys, him and McNeely, who are 50% or higher to finish top 20. Uh short season for Norin after returning from injury back in May. He finished this year though with a T7 and T3 in big events and then won twice on the DP World Tour since. He’s in as pretty much as good form as you could be in in the fall for a player who didn’t even golf the full season. Good putter, accurate driver, and he’s sitting outside the top 100 in points. So, he basically needs to start racking them up over these next couple tournaments. Uh I think as I mentioned, fair odds at plus,500. So, a nice value here at plus 2,000. Uh Jason Day 4.8% plus 2,800. Fair at plus 2,000. He’s got a small edge in placements for a ladder play. If there was one guy you were doing, it’d probably be him based on the models projections. This is his first action on the tour since the BMW championship uh in the playoffs. Finished T-23 there. He’s got kind of a mixed bag of stats. Decent putter. Uh ranked 61st, but he’s above average. Uh right at field average in driving accuracy. Solid off the tea. Might have a little bit of rust to deal with here. Uh Christian Bazudin height 3.8% plus 3500. Far at plus 2500. So a $100 difference there for a $10 better. He’s a ladder play. Top 10 in back-to-back uh stops on the fall circuit. 11th ranked putter, 29th most accurate off the tea. Distance is not really his strong suit. Um so he’s probably appro appropriately priced as a long shot with upside here. And our last guy, he’s actually off screen here. I’ll roll down. Billy Horchel 2 and a half% at plus 7,000. This would be fair at plus 3900. So a huge difference although that probability gap is actually I think 1% or less. Uh returned after injury absence to an up and down tournament uh last one around at the bay current. Finished his first round of 77 bounced right back with a 66. Finished even on the tournament. Uh strength has always been his putting and he flashed upside with a couple top 10s this year but you know another guy who might just be a little rusty but great value. And just two guys that I like independent of the model projections. Michael Thor Thor Bejornson at plus,800 and Matthew Mccardi at plus 3500. Guys I’ll have on my card even though they’re a bit on the lower end of the probability scale. All right, lots of different ways to approach it. I love the PGA season. One of the most fun sports to bet is golf. We’ll have you covered week in and week out throughout the PGA Tour schedule here on the Dimemer Sports Betting
