Who ARE the REAL Volume Kings of Fantasy Week 6? (RB + WR Deep Dive)

Who’s really getting the valuable volume in fantasy football? Joel Smyth breaks down two data-driven graphs — one for running backs, one for receivers, revealing which players’ usage actually matters for your lineup.

From Christian McCaffrey’s insane goal-line dominance to DeVante Adams’ elite red-zone + deep target combo, Joel shows which players are real workhorses and which are fool’s gold hiding behind inflated box scores.

Players discussed include:
CMC, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, DeVante Adams, Rome Odunze, Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Pickens, Quentin Johnston, and more.

0:00 RB Valuable Volume Breakdown
00:35 Christian McCaffrey
01:35 Josh Jacobs/Jonathan Taylor
03:00 Kyren Williams
03:40 Chase Brown
04:35 PIT RBs
05:05 Bucky Irving
06:00 Bijan Robinson
06:50 Chuba Hubbard
07:20 TreVeyeon Henderson
08:10 Cam Skattebo
08:40 James Cook
09:00 Quinshon Judkins
10:30 Travis Etienne
11:10 Kenneth Walker III
12:05 WR/TE Graph
12:55 Davante Adams
13:45 Emeka Egbuka
14:20 Rome Odunze
15:25 Amon-Ra St. Brown
16:10 LAC WRs
17:45 Tetairoa McMillan
18:35 Nico Collins
19:20 Drake London
20:00 Hunter Henry
20:25 Theo Johnson
20:45 Dalton Kincaid
22:30 Mark Andrews
22:55 Kyle Pitts
23:15 Brenton Strange
23:30 Waddle/Worthy/Diggs

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Hello. Hello. Today we have two different graphs. One for running back and one for receiver with the same idea. Who is getting the valuable volume in these offenses? In fantasy, a lot of times we can look at the box score. Go to running backs. How many carries they get? Receivers, how many targets do they get? And it goes a little bit deeper than that. Some of these guys, it’s not as good as what the box score is telling us. Or it’s a lot better. And same thing for receivers. So, let’s look here at running backs first. On the left side, we have the goal line carries per game. the most valuable thing you can get in fantasy, followed very closely by targets per game on that bottom x- axis. So, we’re starting off with CMC. He is a graph breaker. So, he’s not even right here because Achan has six targets and CMC has over 10. So, if I included him in the graph like normal, it would make the graph look horrible. So, we’re not going to. But, his volume has been incredible. It is the OG CMC. And I would say his goal line usage is even better than what this suggests because we are still at five weeks into the season. He has gotten all the goal line carries by a running back except one to use check the fullback. But in terms of Brian Robinson taking some that hasn’t been the case. So he is clear there and he’s still getting a ton of targets that will maybe dip some when KD comes back. But still like it’s not like he’s going to dip from five to two targets. It is 10 to maybe seven targets per game. and that goal line work will increase. That efficiency still been solid. He hasn’t scored as many touchdowns as we’d expect, but it’s starting to come around as we saw last Thursday night. So, wheels up for CMC right now. And then Taylor and Jacobs are the two other guys that are the best in this. Pretty different for being right next to each other. Taylor a little better in the receiving and I know they are right next to each other, but Jacobs really just had that one game. Daniel Jones helps Jonathan Taylor a bunch in terms of that receiving those consistent targets week to week. Jacobs, it was really just one blowup game. The targets haven’t been bad. It is better than what you’d expect for Jacobs. So that’s nice. If he can stay around three targets per game, that’s fine because he is getting 100% of the goal on carries in a Packers offense. That’s good. And a defense matters there, too. When you have a running back getting a 100% of the goal on carries and they’re down there a lot because the defense is also good or at least outside of when they play the Cowboys, that’s a good sign. Taylor, it is a little bit of a mix in terms of his goal line usage because he has two. That’s amazing. Two per game is incredible for a fantasy running back, but he only sits at 55%. So, two different things. One, I think it increases from that 55%, but also two, maybe they don’t have as many goal line carries as a team. So I think stays around here which is great overall but obviously Daniel Jones has had some and Warren even too has had a couple there as well but obviously like he’s had multiple three touchdown games already that won’t happen as consistently but he is still amazing and love him for the rest of the year overall. Kairen is down here another surprise and very similar to Jacobs in the fact that he had one blowup game. He had the best career game of his or best receiving game of his career with 10 targets just seemingly out of nowhere. Zakorum is taking a little bit of those goal carries has had a couple this season already. So Williams, who is usually way up here in terms of those goal attempts per game, is sitting right at 08, but in this offense who has been producing, he’s been on fire recently. I still like him overall. Nothing too not too many things to worry about overall in this Rams offense just because he’s been a solid back, great team in general, getting enough usage where he might not be a top five guy this year, but he can still be that fringe RB1 for you. And then the question of the day, Joe Flacco has now signed with the Bengals or was traded to the Bengals. And we got Chase Brown. Is it going to get better? I don’t have a ton of hope. It could get a little better. Something is better than nothing. When we’re looking at the targets per game, he’s gotten a decent amount, but they haven’t been valuable targets. It’s a lot of checkdowns with two different linebackers on him. Like, he’s not really in space too often. All of this goon usage happened over the first three weeks. He hasn’t had a single goal line attempt the last two weeks because they haven’t really been down there. But with Flaco coming in, maybe the offense gets a little bit better. And he did target running backs nearly nine times per game in his four starts with the Browns this year. So, Pier will take a couple, but a lot of that will go to Chase Brown. So maybe there’s some slight improvement there against the Packers this week. Definitely not like an easy start. Maybe a flex I would say for now and we’ll see how it goes. Right next to him is those Steelers running backs. Specifically Warren, I do not want to be counting on Arthur Smith to give me a consistent fantasy running back as an RB1 or even an RB2. But in terms of a flex play with this usage, it can be a very valuable boom bust, especially for a guy like Warren who we expect to be that number one guy still. the targets are there in the air in Rogers offense and they’re getting lots of goal line work. So although it’s unpredictable in terms of who might get the ball week to week if we understand, hey, there might be some games where Warren’s scoring under 10, there’ll be those games where he’s scoring 20 plus again. So that can be valuable. Looking at this bottom right, Irving down here, Bjun Robinson, similar guys, but a little different scenarios. So Irving, I would say, has just been plagued by bad luck outside of the injury. the targets very good, very encouraging and he’s getting Bellcow work in general. Honestly should be closer to Chase Brown in the long run because they just have been unlucky in terms of their amount of goal line snaps this year as a team for a really good offense that the Bucks have and the amount they’re scoring. The first four weeks that Bucky was in, they had two snaps inside the 5yd line. So White got one carry, not really worried about it. And Bucky Irving had one the other snap where it was just a pass play and that’s it. So that’s why he doesn’t have any goal line attempts. It’s not that other people are getting it. Then week five when he was out the Bucks, they had two carries inside the five yard line and white it worked out for him. So Irving longterm very confident. Behan on the other hand, great receiving. That’s been awesome. However, in their four games, they do have 11 snaps inside the five. So a little different story. Algier is taking a decent amount of that which is annoying. Bejian obviously still amazing but not really what you want from your overall running back one hopes in a guy like Robinson. So they have 11 snaps, three carries on four snaps for Algier. Bejian has played the other seven snaps and he has two carries and no touchdowns. So a little disappointing there. He’ll get more touchdowns because he’s not going to have zero, but it might not be the Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor goal line usage that we want from Abjan right there. Achan a more extreme version of that with Gordon taking a little bit of that goal line usage now too. He’s more getting the goal line usage. Achan that is on those creative plays. This next guy is doubt. I’m I’m worried honestly. I’m a little worried because I was already worried beforehand. That’s the main reason DA was getting 100% of the goal line carries already. So they were inside the five actually a lot and two things. One they are extremely pass heavy in the red zone right now. We’ll get to that later with another guy in terms of the receivers. And then two when they are running it’s not to Hubard. So when he comes back after Doubt has ripped off 200 yards I was already worried. I was already worried. and Stephvenson. Henderson when we’re looking at these guys like Henderson I want to hope like he’s so good him similar with like an RJ Harvey like when they’re on the field they’re not looking bad Henderson hasn’t really flashed too much honestly but they’ve talked a lot about Stephvenson’s role after this last week where he had another fumble still Rael was like we need Stephvenson to have that big role because Gibson goes down to injury that role is mainly that red zone role he’s getting about 60% of the snaps and 60% of the touches in the red zone. That other 40% isn’t Henderson. It is Henderson and Gibson. Basically 20% each. So my confidence in terms of Stevenson going away. Still not really high despite the fumbles like you would think. And going rep back up real quick to Scatabo. I feel like I missed him earlier, but I do want to point out that usage has been amazing. The valuable volume. It’s not just that he’s getting a ton of touches, but he’s getting a lot of the goal line work. He’s still getting the receiving. It was an up and down game with uh Dart at quarterback. That first one they threw 20 times, so only had two targets, but when they were in a pass, they doubled it, had 40 attempts, then he had seven targets. He was getting a lot with Wilson. Now he’s getting still a decent amount with Dart and a ton of goal line usage. So up there looks really nice, too. When we’re looking right in the center here, right behind Judkins is James Cook, which you know, it’s a good sign for Judkins to be next to James Cook. Cook’s volume has bumped up significantly. Nearly 30 40% usage compared to last year. Judkins, what’s the difference? Well, he’s not on the Bills offense. He’s on the Browns offense. However, those carries are increasing each week. He’s gone from 10 to 18 to 21 to 23. That goal line usage will be all his. He’s getting all of the ground game. The routes are a little inconsistent and there’s some worries in general. Like I want to be more positive on Judkins because he looks so good and I do think he’ll be a fantasy RB2. So I want to hear want you to hear me there. However, in terms of the routes, it’s been up and down. It was nothing at first and he had a couple weeks where it was rising and then Gabriel comes in and for some reason Drum Forward took like all of it. He had five routes last week. He played eightman boxes 70% of the time and was still good. Still good. I just fear there’s going to be some floor games coming if this uses if this usage stays the same. So, right now, like honestly, 2.8 targets per game wouldn’t be horrible. Um, I don’t expect it to increase too much is the issue. And in this Browns offense, he probably needs a little bit more to have that pure fantasy upside. And we get to this bottom left, and you don’t want to be here. It’s red for a reason. It’s the dirty work zone. So, Dobbins and Mason are on the edge of that. Dobin still getting a decent amount of goal line carries and a good offense. So has some value there. Genty on the other side of this. That target share is increasing some of that due to no Bowers, no mayor. The routes are going up which is good but still lots of red flags there obviously. But like Bacho, it’s all between the 20 carries. ETN he leads the NFL in yards per carry which I wouldn’t use to show how good he’s doing but rather what you’d expect in fantasy. If a guy is putting up those numbers in the box score, you’d expect more than say RB14 in fantasy points per game. So why isn’t he? Well, it’s because he’s in the dirty work zone. He has three touchdowns this year. That’s amazing. But he doesn’t have a single goal line attempt. They are 30th in RB target share this year. So he’s getting some design work, some of those screens, but besides that, Lawrence isn’t thrown to him at all really. So the targets are lower than normal. He’s getting no goal line attempts. still has those three touchdowns and great efficiency so far. But RB14, I would definitely say is his peak and at more of a sell high moment in terms of the process. Walker very similar. I don’t know if there’s a single guy in the NFL the past whatever year years that has been a better NFL player than he is in fantasy. He’s great in terms of an NFL back, but in terms of fantasy, it’s been rough. He kind of lives in hell. They’ve had eight goal line snaps this year. Sharp has taken seven of them in those four games where they both played. Sharps has taken seven of those eight goal line snaps. They run the ball more than anybody in the NFL in terms of percent of plays that they’re running. But that offensive line is a problem. They’re 31st in target share, two running backs. He’s only had two designed carries, so his targets are way down. He’s not getting the goal line work. So we’ll have 10 for 86 on the ground like last week. Amazing. It doesn’t mean too much in fantasy unless you’re playing in standard leagues. And even at that point, it’s not perfect. So upside RB2, but he is more in that flex boom bust territory for sure. As we move to receivers, the two categories are red zone targets per game. On the left in the bottom is your downfield targets. Those targets of 15 yards downfield or more. Shows how much upside some of these receivers have and what we can hope on. Are there touchdowns going to continue? Tight ends too on top of this, not just receivers. And we notice up in that top right a surprise for some. For me, Devonte Adams looking incredible. No one is even close. It’s this elite target range where he’s getting a ton of the downfield over four downfield targets a game and two red zone targets per game. On the left side, we have the touchdown upside type players. The bottom right is those guys that are deep threats but not getting too much red zone work right now. And then the bottom left, again, the dirty work zone. We don’t want our guys there. But on top of Adams one in terms of sticking there. Actually, they’re fourth in passing attempts. Stafford is third in terms of percent of his throws being those 15 plus yard throws. So right now he’s wide receiver 16 with three touchdowns. But I’m not worried about that touchdown regression because of this and other factors, those end zone targets. He has nine pickings, has 11 over here. So both way above anybody else. The third guy is at six. So, just to show how much more he’s actually getting and how much more Pickins is getting, almost two times as much as the third place guy. So, those touchdowns should stick. I would expect over 10 touchdowns this year. And he’s got Shawn McVey, he’s got Stafford, everything there is there for him. So, I would say wide receiver 16 is kind of where you’d expect him to be for the rest of the season. Looking great right now. Ibuka looks amazing on this graph. He is the perfect mix right now of Evans and Godwin. People were trying to decide which one he’s going to be. He’s just both. It’s awesome. It’s a downfield offense. I said Stafford was third in that percentage of his throws going for 15 air yards. Baker is number two behind only Lamar Jackson. It’s kind of what he was last year. It’s amazing right now. Evans, it looks good for him as well. But Ibuka just getting those downfield targets. They are accurate. They are deep downfield and then a decent amount of red zone work too and some in the slot. So looks great overall there. And right below Evans, who do you notice? A Dunes. Especially when you’re comparing him with DJ Moore. Pretty much the opposite. Adun the biggest benefactor of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams turnaround this year. Caleb Williams fourth highest percentage in that 15 plus years though. I promise the last time I used that stat, but the percent of those throws going for 15 or more yards downfield. Caleb Williams is the fourth highest. Last season, Roma Dun was dead last in the NFL in catchable target percentage. This year he is 27th, which might not sound incredible, but when you’re looking at the guys above him, it is a lot of those short area slot receivers. Like Josh DS is above him. He’s nowhere on this graph. So when you’re looking at that, he’s actually like well inside the top 20 in terms of catchable target percentage for the downfield deep receiver. That is amazing, especially when you’re comparing it to being dead last year. So I am wheels up for Dunay right now. I love him going forward. These first four games have been incredible. Especially with DJ Moore, it’s less designed targets for him in general. And you know those downfield targets, red zone work, it’s not there. Adun is up in this elite target range. I like him a lot. Sam Brown, a ton of red zone work. A little bit of a negative for Leaporta because that’s where some of it is coming from this season. And Jameson Williams not really getting anything at all. So the worry for St. Brown was he was incredible last year, but he was 17th in target share. His target share dropped off a bunch this year. Not only is he getting all those red zone targets still, that red zone points per game is still incredible, but he’s now number six in target share back to what he used to be. That red zone work for Leapora is lower. He’s only at a 19% target share. JMO down to 15%. So that’s not improving at all. Same role as last year, but even just more downfield for him. And Detroit right now, they’re number one in passing touchdowns in the red zone. So St. Brown’s going to be the biggest benefactor there. We have all three of the Chargers receivers here in three different sections and it really emphasizes or just shows perfectly why it’s not working for Manki and the two others their role. Kenan Allen is that clear red zone threat that third down guy red zone the chemistry with Herbert is perfect. It probably won’t change and Johnston. They are not throwing it downfield a lot this year, but when they are, it’s to Johnston. And that is the big thing in terms of his upside. I don’t think it’s gonna get worse. And it could all actually it could actually get better, which is crazy because he’s been so good through five games. But Johnston, in terms of that downfield target percentage, Herbert is fifth lowest in the NFL right now, which compared to last year and just throughout his career is a lot lower. And a lot of that is due to them being pressured more than anybody in the NFL right now as a team and as a quarterback. So if they can figure out that pressure, get some of those offensive linemen back healthy, then that could be huge for Johnston in just increasing his downfield targets even more because the percentage just isn’t there. And he’s still above two downfield targets a game. So the upside is big for him. Where Maconi, he’s just not getting a lot of this. He’s gotten 14% of the targets on those red zone or downfield shots. So, it’s just not too much the targets in general. If he was doing this and getting 10 targets per game, then sure, that can work. But right now, he’s getting like, you know, seven. It’s just not good enough. In this bunch with Johnson, you got Nua, Jefferson in there, Collins is up there, Marv. So, there’s interesting names. Starting with McMillan. Bryce Young last year was the second most aggressive quarterback in these downfield throws. And this year that has dropped to the fourth lowest. So McMillan, just like Johnston, is getting a ton of this work. And yet the Panthers aren’t throwing it downfield too much. So, if Bryce Young even gets a little bit of this back, maybe goes to the middle or back to being that super aggressive quarterback we saw last year, that is where there’s a ton of hope for McMillan because some other positive stats, they are number one in red zone passing attempts this year. They have seven red zone passing touchdowns. McMillan has none. Seven red zone passing touchdowns. And McMillan, who is that red zone threat, you’d think, does not have one yet. I think that changes here pretty soon. So for Collins, it’s similar in a way, but I would say a little bit more negative because McMillan, it’s the same quarterback and same offensive coordinator, same head coach. You would expect a little of that Bryce Young aggression to come back, more of those downfield targets, and you just honestly, we just need Bryce Young to play better. With Collins, it is a new offensive coordinator. So Straoud has dropped from being that top 10 quarterback in those downfield throws to the second lowest in the NFL. And that’s the concern is Nico is still getting these valuable targets. It’s been a little less consistent this year and less in terms of Stout actually throwing those downfield balls to Stout or to Collins. A lot less over the middle and I think a lot of that is just this new offensive coordinator. So, a little bit more worries when it comes to him. Drake London, if we see him in this bottom left right by Bowers, it hasn’t been good. But I would blame a lot of this similar to Kyle Pittz down here in terms of just the opportunity in terms of the red zone work. The Falcons only have 12 red zone attempts per game. There’s only three teams with lower. So he’s getting the usage, the percentage. The Falcons offense just needs to get better. So we’ve seen that in certain games, but when you put up zero points against Carolina, it’s not going to look as good in terms of these graphs. So I have hope for London. he’s at least getting used correctly. The Falcons offense just needs to be better. The tight ends live in this touchdown upside area. It is what tight ends are made for. We’re looking for the guys that are going to get us somewhat consistent tight ends. A guy like Hunter Henry so far. He’s got a few. And that red zone target share is really good. Even with Diggs kind of coming on these last couple weeks, he still has multiple red zone targets. So, that’s good. I would expect to continue on this offense with that quarterback play. Johnson not as confident. Bellinger is still there too. The quarterback play, you know, not to Drake May’s level. That offense in general, they are second in the NFL in red zone passing attempts. They have 30 second to the Panthers. They have 11 completions. 11 of 30 in terms of that red zone passing. Not the greatest for a tight end right now. Cancade getting down here. I love Concaid. The positive before I say any of this, he is very good and he’s on a really good offense. So there’ll be some good days. He’ll still be that fantasy tight end one. However, whenever I look into Concaid, it makes me sad. So right now, he’s at one red zone target per game. That’s pretty good with Kelsey, Craft, Ferguson, McBride, all these tight ends, mostly really good tight ends. And then we got Concincaid. So five red zone targets this year already. That’s awesome. He was not using the red zone too much last year. That was one of the bigger worries. Can they use him in the red zone this year? He had nine red zone targets last season, the entire time. Right now, he has five and four being endzone targets. It looks great. Is he running more routes and is he being used in the red zone? Were the two questions of can we get top three upside from Concaid this year? Well, his route share was at 57% last year. Not good. This year it’s at 56%. So, it’s the exact same. In terms of the red zone though, 57%. So the exact same as his route share in terms of outside of the red zone as inside of the red zone still just 57% pretty low especially for a tight end this year down to 42%. So he has five red zone targets when he’s on the field they’re targeting him but he’s only running a route on 42% of the red zone plays inside the five yard line. So those easy touchdown tosses he has one route. Knox has four. So it’s annoying. I do not expect these touchdowns to continue. There’s going to be lots of floor days. There’s still going to be some ceiling days because of again, he’s great and his offense is great, but in terms of the touchdowns continuing like this, it is nearing the next to impossible if the usage does not increase. Andrews, another guy that was very reliant on touchdowns last year. He had nine endzone targets and nine touchdowns. This year, three endzone targets, only one touchdown so far. His red zone work in general has dipped. He does not get targeted downfield at all right now compared to what he was used to. Especially especially considering Lamar is number one in the NFL in those downfield throws. Never to Andrews though. So, a little bit worrisome there. Pitts, like I said, with London. It’s honestly not been bad for Pitts. He’s being used well. I would credit a lot of this just from them not not really being in the red zone yet this year. A lot of their touchdowns, think about it, like Bean’s housing these from 70 yards, 30 yards, whatever it is. It’s less red zone work in general right now. Strange is the one that’s o just nothing nothing. Zero red zone targets as a Jacksonville tight end which honestly with Trevor Lawrence and then Liam Cohen coming in from Tampa Bay. Like not a shock. Not really a shock. The red zone usage is next to none for Strange and he’s not really being targeted downfield now he picks up that injury but in terms of just when he comes back the ceiling as a tight end is extremely low. So that is sad. And to end just the whatifs real quick. The whatifs. Where would Waddle be in week five with without Tyreek Hill? He would be next to Devonte Adams. Interesting. Worthy after two games would be right on top of Piol. That’s a good spot to be. And Diggs these last two weeks when he has gotten more playing time. Douglas has lost his routes. Where would he be? He would be right on top of a Dunes. Another great one. So, those three whatifs that I really like gives them some confidence going forward. Hope you guys like these graphs. I enjoyed it. It was a fun time. Hope you guys have a good week and I’ll see you back on