Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings, Injuries, Props | DraftKings Picks, Ownership, Top Values

Pat Mayo updates his 2025 Fantasy Football Week 5 rankings with the latest news and goes through the Week 5 NFL Injury Report telling you who is in and out and which players stand to benefit. Mayo then goes through his favorite Week 5 Props and fills out an Underdog Pick’em Entry before getting to his Top Cheap Plays on DraftKings for Week 5 at each position.

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Show Index

00:00 INTRO
1:09 Injuries & Updated Rankings
23:05 Week 5 Underdog Pick’em Entry + Week 5 Player Props
33:50 Week 5 DraftKings Ownership by Position + Value Plays

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Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings, Injuries, Props | DraftKings Picks, Ownership, Top Values Welcome to the Pat Mayo
Experience presented by Underdog Week 5 injuries, Updated fantasy
rankings, Props, Underdog DraftKings It’s all here in the
week 5 CHEAT SHEET. You can always get this in text
form up on fourforfour.com along with the updated rankings list
which are which are out right now.
You can get that down in the description.
Additionally, if you submit the free Mayo Media newsletter,
you’ll get the e-mail blast later on Saturday evening when
all of the injuries are finalized.
Additionally, smash the like sub to the channel.
That always goes a long way. If you have a question about
week #5 on Sunday, dump them in the comments section.
I’ll get to them Saturday night and early on Sunday morning,
hopefully before the London game.
Depends on what time I wake up. Spoiler alert, I’m always up
early before that game, so I’ll be there for you if you need the
help. And if you only want to hear
about props or DraftKings and don’t care about the fantasy
rankings, hit the time codes. Jump around for me.
All right, let’s get to those injuries and fantasy rankings.
Chuba Hubbard is out against the Dolphins for the Carolina
Panthers with a calf injury. I’ve moved up Rico Dowdle to
number 13 in the running back rankings.
Trevor ETN. Not Travis.
Trevor ETN. Trevi comes in at #40 I would
guess that the split is somewhere between 70 and 30% for
Dowdle and Trevi because that’s what we saw once.
Hubbard really not left the game last week, but just wasn’t
really being utilized much in the game.
Daddell’s been a pass catching back for them.
He’s only $4300 on DraftKings as well, so you have to pick your
poison this week with some of the backup running backs.
It would be Daddell for me. No ETN.
Bucky Irving is out with an ankle injury or foot injury or
whatever the hell they’re calling.
He ain’t playing against the Seattle Seahawks this week.
I don’t know how this split is going to go.
Additionally, the Seahawks defense is really good passing.
Running wise, it’s just been excellent so far this season.
So I tentatively Rashad White as a low end running back to 19 in
the running back rankings now. That’s mainly because Sean
Tucker comes in at #32 Just remember the times when Rashad
White would be out last season and be like man, it’s time for a
Bucky Smash fest boarding. However, it would be like a
split between Sean Tucker and Rashad White or Sean Tucker and
Bucky Irving. They just like to run 2 running
back systems in Tampa Bay. It could be completely wrong,
could be 90% White. I don’t see it going that way.
White will be the primary pass catching bat that I feel pretty
good about. Not like completely certain, but
pretty good about. But Sean Tucker could be the
goal line back here. Plus it’s a tough D.
Who knows how many yards are going to accrue anyway.
So not great starts. It would be White over Tucker,
but in a pinch you could play and hopefully things break your
way. I think the biggest one of the
week and one of the more confusing ones about how this is
going to shake itself down. Trey Benson, the hot pickup from
last week, has now been placed on entered reserve.
He’s out at least three weeks in Arizona.
Glorious matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans.
Bottom three, run defense, bottom 2, and giving up fantasy
points to opposing running back. So that leaves us with Michael
Carter and Amari de Mercado. And then you have Bam Knight
lurking somewhere in the background.
I did bet Bam Knight to score a touchdown at 14 to 1 or 16 to
one. That number has been cut to 4 to
1, so sometimes jumping upon the news early can pay huge
dividends. Whether he scores or not, I have
no idea, but I’d rather take four times the odds to figure it
out. I would not bet him at 4:00 to
1:00. I bet Michael Carter plus 180.
I think it was plus 175 to score a touchdown and he’s down to
like plus 1/25. I have Michael Carter above de
Mercado. I have Michael Carter at #21 in
the running back rankings. That’s sandwiched directly
between Alvin Kamara and Chase Brown, so I would play him ahead
of Chase Brown. That’s a terrible matchup.
More on that in the props. Demarcado, I have it running
back #26 that’s sandwiched between Henderson and Jacory
Kroski Merritt. The thinking being, I think that
Carter is going to be the primary ball carrier between the
tackles on the ground. Not to say that Demarcado is not
going to get any carries, but like pencil him for like 4 to 8
and be the primary receiving back.
Now the problem is the Cardinals are 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 point
favorites wherever you look. It’s not like Tennessee’s
pumping the scoreboard with points lately.
So if you expect as the spread does that the Cardinals be out
in front in this game, it’s going to be the guy on the
ground. So I think the cutter gets the
carries. I think that he gets the goal
line work and Demarcado will be spliced in as a change of pace
or in two-minute drills on clear passing downs, third and 15,
whatever it might be. But I think the Carter will end
up with more touches in the more valuable touches in this game.
So it’ll be Michael Carter over Demarcado for me.
He’s a low end running back #2 rather play Dowdle in the spot.
But here we are. Lamar Jackson is out one 2-3
weeks with a hamstring injury. If we don’t get 25 Derrick Henry
touches in this game, what are we even doing at this point?
I haven’t running back #11 for this game.
Issue is they’re taking on the Texans who have a very good run
defense. I have Zay Flowers as wide
receiver #16 with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback.
I don’t love any of these options, even that 11 for Henry
just because he is Derrick Henry.
You give him the benefit of the doubt that he can do this.
And he’s probably your first round pick or your second round
pick and your running back one. So you’re probably going to have
to play him anyway unless you’re just born with so many great
options. I can see benching him.
I wouldn’t bench. I here’s the thing, I didn’t
know that like no Lamar in a banged up offensive line of the
best run defense that they played all year because I’ve
seen Henry as high as like 3 in people’s rankings.
That seems crazy to me. It’s just without Lamar.
I just think the degree of difficulty is higher for Derrick
Henry. They’re going to score, score
fewer points both against a great defense and without Lamar
around. Cooper Rush trying to not turn
the ball over and under Center for the Ravens.
So like, he’s a good play. He’s not a high upside play in
the start unless he goes full Derrick Henry and goes for like
220 and three touchdowns. I just don’t expect that to
happen. Miles Sanders is questionable
for the Dallas Cowboys against The Jets.
I think that he is going to go. Obviously, I still much prefer
Javonte Williams. He didn’t practice on Friday,
which usually means he’s out, but he’s a veteran, so he could
be there. Jura said that Jalen Blue is
actually going to be active for this game.
I still put Javonte Williams at running back number six.
If Sanders ends up going, I’m going to drop him down to 9 or
10 only because we’ve seen Sanders take away a lot of the
goal line work from Javonte Williams so far this season.
It’s not every single snap, but they’re like splitting inside
the red zone. That’s not great for what you
want to be a high upside play in Javonte Williams in a fantastic
matchup in a high total against The Jets.
Taje Spears is leaning in for the Titans.
So I pumped down Tony Pollard just a wee little bit.
Not that I like Tony Pollard anyway.
I’m I’m looking for any excuse to not play Tony Pollard.
I haven’t running back #24 this week in a decent matchup.
But there’s also four teams on buys and a whole bunch of
injuries. So it’s not like a great vote of
confidence for Tony Pollard. Pick up Spears if you if he’s
available, he’s probably not available in any competitively,
but if he is available in yours, go make bench room for Taji
Spears. Pollard’s at 24.
That’s a spot behind like JK Dobbins, Even Chase Brown, I
play ahead of him because of the receptions.
Michael Carter is the head of them.
That’s in front of like Pacheco and Henderson.
I have Spears down at #39 in the running back rankings.
Once again, if you just want to see the entire list of rankings
by position, hit the description.
Go 444.com. They’re all updated there right
now. The direct link is down there.
Smash the like and some of the channel where you’re here.
And then once again, if you have any questions, hit me up in the
comment section. I will get to them or my
internal get through them. One of the two of us will get to
them and we’ll be fine. Tyron Tracy is expected to be
out. He’s doubtful against the New
Orleans Saints. He was back at practice a little
bit this week. They do play on Thursday Night
Football, so it’s looking like he’s trending to go do it that
week. Next week, I believe it’s
against the Eagles. Scat Mangato, not really him.
Scataboo is running back #12 This week against the Saints,
Aaron Jones remains out on the injured reserve for at least two
more games. Jordan Mason in a difficult but
not the end of the world match up on the ground against the
Browns is running back #18 Xavier Scott is #43 Last week
Xavier Scott was able to pile up a bunch of receptions because
the Vikings got down a lot in that game.
He became the clear passing down back.
He and Mason ran similar amounts of routes, just Mason played so
many more snaps that he was running routes on non obvious
passing downs. 2 minutes, real comeback time.
That was Xavier Scott even stole the touchdown away from Jordan
Mason. So running back 18 for Mason,
running back #43 for Xavier Scott for The Jets.
Braylon Allen has been placed on injured reserve.
And see, I mean, it looked bad on Monday night and it turned
out that it was bad 8 to 12 weeks.
He’s probably done for the season at this point because I
doubt The Jets are making a deep run into January starting the
year off. Oh, and four hot start.
The Jets real good. Good.
Breeze Hall is running back #5 in the rankings because he’s
still good. And Isaiah Davis, now the
primary backup to Breeze Hall, is coming in at #41 He’s also a
special teams player. The Jet sign?
Khalil Herbert earlier this week, too.
There are a slew of injuries for Washington.
Debo Samuel with his heel and foot injury is expected to play.
That’s good news because Terry Mclaurin remains out with this
quad injury. Noah Brown remains out with his
groin injury. Another big boost.
Jayden Daniels going to be back wearing a knee brace, but he
will be playing against the Los Angeles Chargers this week on
the West Coast. So this backfield is an absolute
cluster. I’ve no idea what to do.
I do have Jacory Krosky, Merritt as the highest of of the running
backs, but he’s running back #26 or 27.
It’s Chris Rodriguez after that, and then it’s Jeremy Nichols.
They’re all basically played the same amount of snaps a week ago.
If everyone’s only getting 30% of the snaps, none of these guys
are startable until we get a better sense of what’s going on.
I have Daniels at quarterback #5 I get he has the brace.
Maybe he won’t run as much, but I do like the back and forth
nature of this game. Luke McCaffrey does come in at
#43 Jalen Lane at #56 You could play Chris Moore because he’s
running the second get most routes and playing the second
most snaps. Just no one is throwing to him
in this spot. You could play him like over 2
1/2 catches. I over 3 1/2 catches.
I think pays like 2 to one if you want to ladder him up.
If this just becomes the Chris Moore game, I don’t think I’d
run him out for fantasy purposes because it’s just very low
upside. But for just overall receptions
and a little bit of a floor, it’s probably Chris Moore.
Luke McCaffrey would be my preference of all the guys who
are not named Debo Samuel as a part of the wide receiver core.
I did bump up Zach Ertz the tight end number six who caught
touchdowns in both games at Jaden Daniels has started this
season. And with Brock Bowers banged up
and a ton of injuries at tight end, Zach Hertz is one of the
more reliable options that you can have right now.
Chargers not great against tight end either.
Michael Pittman is expected in for the Colts.
Alec Pierce is out again with a concussion for the Colts, so
Downs moves up into that Pierce spot at wide receiver #43 that’s
by like Malik Washington, Luke McCaffrey, Hollywood Brown and
Cooper Cup. Not a great option, a low upside
option, but a good match up in that passing game against the
Raiders. Then we go to Dallas.
We already talked about Miles Sanders, but the receiving corps
additionally quite banged up. CD Lamb is still out one to four
weeks with his ankle injury. There is a chance that he comes
back next week, so fingers crossed for that.
For anyone who’s a CD Lamb owner, Kevonte Turpin is out
with a foot injury. Also hurt his neck last week
too. And Jonathan Mingo is a Mingo is
questionable, has not played a game yet this season, so he
might get in against The Jets. I really like Jalen Tolbert in
this. Not as much as George Pickens
obviously, but George Pickens is wide receiver #8 Jayden Jalen
Tolbert is wide receiver #26 in this game, his over of 3 1/2
receptions. Be it an underdog or any of the
other sports books that you can go to that it’s plus money right
now. It’s like plus 125.
And in a game against The Jets, they have just been a sieve
defensively so far this year. One of the highest projected
point totals on the slate for the Cowboys as favorites.
Even on the road. I really like Tolbert in the
spot. Everyone’s going to want to play
Jake Ferguson. Granted he’s going to get a lot
of low A dot targets. I just think that if Sauce, it’s
not that sauce can’t be beat by George Pickens.
George Pickens can beat probably any DB in the league.
It’s whether or not he holds onto the ball, stays in bounds
and doesn’t take like a 20 yard stupid penalty after he catches
the ball for doing something absolutely brain dead.
Tolbert more reliable in the sense I think we’re just going
to see a lot of him in this game with the other injuries that
have been piling up for the Dallas Cowboys here.
So I think that he is a high end wide receiver.
Three play if you need someone to pick up and start this week.
Cedric Tillman for the Browns in the early game in London has
been placed on injured reserve with a hand injury.
He is out at least four weeks dial on hot fire.
Gabriel is taking over for Joe Flacco under Center for the
Browns, which is probably for the best, but they’re playing
Minnesota who is a very good pass defense, so it might not be
the greatest start. The Browns are missing multiple
offensive lineman in this game, as are the Vikings as well.
So maybe not a ton of offense here unless it’s a broken play.
I have Jerry Judy at wide receiver #35 Isaiah Bond, 37 in
the wide receiver rankings. He is another guy that you could
pick up. I would prefer Tolbert over Bond
as a plug and play this week, although with Tillman out for an
extended period of time, maybe you get lucky and Gabriel’s
actually pretty good and can throw the ball down the field.
Then you get Bond for three more weeks after that.
Actually, I think they’re on a bye week next week coming back
from London. Maybe not, though.
I’ll research that. TuneIn.
Sunday night, Sunday Night Live, 7:15 PM Eastern Time, we’ll go
over the games and you can find out if Cleveland’s playing or
not. But he could be a very good
pickup. Jerry, Judy, just he looks kind
of washed. He’s open a ton, but he cannot
catch the ball. Top five in the league and drop
so far this season. Kelvin Ridley is questionable
for the Titans against the Cardinals this week.
He has looked awful. He has looked like he’s been
playing through injury. He’s getting no separation.
In fact, like Tyler Lockett’s been almost better than him in
the receiving corps. And here’s a fun fact.
Tyler Lockett has been terrible so far this season.
The only one you could play. I mean, you could play Chig, I
suppose, if you want to, But Alec Ayo Manor, the Knigen is
wide receiver #30 this week against the Cardinals.
And what I mean, every week for the Titans is a big comeback
spot, but at least they look for him in the red zone on the one
chance that they get down there during the game.
Xavier Leggett is expected in after missing the past two weeks
with his hamstring injury against the Dolphins.
Jalen Coker, the practice window is open for him to return next
week. We’ll see if that happens.
It’s probably going to be a couple more weeks, but that’s a
good boost for this offense. I have Ted McMillan at wide
receiver #12 against the Dolphins and Hunter Renfro at
wide receiver #44 I would still not play Leget.
Maybe you get a touchdown out of him, but more than likely you’re
going to have one point and you probably do not want that in
your fantasy lineup this week. Mike Evans is out still one to
four weeks with that hamstring problem.
I have Egg Buca up at wide receiver number six and
honestly, I do not feel good about it.
That’s more of me relying on the projections this week rather
than what I saw with my eyes. He got like no separation
against the Eagles last week and relied on a busted play to get
into the end zone. If it wasn’t for that, he would
have had a terrible week. However, he just continues to do
it every single week and he’s going to be the focal point of
this offense in the passing game and games where they’re
underdogs. So you got to have them up
there. I’ve got one at #33 He have
probably the easier completions to make for Baker against the
Seahawks running shorter A dot routes, crisper routes.
But he’s still not 100% right now and until you see that
flash, it’s really too hard to trust him as a high end option.
If you need to plug him in as a wide receiver. 3 completely get
it. Tyree Kill done for the season
and happy about it. If you see him pictures, all
smiles on old diary kill. Jaylen Waddle That bumps him up
to wide receiver #9 for the week.
Again, don’t feel great about that because it’s Jaylen Waddle.
You know he’s going to have three receptions where he goes
to the locker room every time, but he always seems to come
back. He’s got puka Nakua syndrome in
that regard. Malik Washington at #41 It is a
fantastic matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
Maybe Horn ends up on Waddle and that negates him a little bit.
They do like to move Waddle around this offense so they can
scheme him open and that’s what we saw towards the end of The
Jets game as well. Malik Neighbors out for the
season, The Giants are taking on the Saints.
Jackson Dart, obviously playing quarterback for the Giants right
now. I have Slayton above Wandale
only because I think you can take advantage of the Saints
through the passing game, especially deep, a very soft
back end. They have to do some squats, get
that firmed up a bit, but that leads me to believe it’s more
Slayton than Wandale. Slayton could be an absolute
bust in the spot because maybe Dart isn’t the best at throwing
forward passes, but if you can connect down the field, that guy
is going to be Slayton, not Wandale.
Wandale and Theo Johnson are going to be patrolling right
around 10 yards and in around the line of scrimmage.
Easy passes, probably higher receptions for those guys than
Slayton. But if Slayton is going to be
the one that you start, you’re hoping for a home run from him
this week with Jackson Dart. Also like the Jackson Dart
rushing over because he just prefers to rod rather than throw
the ball at this point. So here’s the Niners coming off
their big win on Thursday night. Here’s their official injury
report. Ricky Purcell.
Ricky Bullets did not play. Jawan Jennings did not play.
Brendan Iuke is unlikely to have his practice window opened
officially after next week, which he would be allowed to.
George Kittle might return next week.
Don’t count on it. It’s probably going to be two
weeks for him. Brock Purdy probably not going
to play next week. He’s leaning out for week 6.
Mac Jones was all gimped up near the end of the the Thursday
night game. He’s probably going to play
Adrian Martinez. Not necessarily needed to be
called on so far for the San Francisco 49ers.
Somehow they continue to get it done.
Obviously, Kendrick Bourne was the one that you want to start,
not DeMarcus Robinson on Thursday Night Football.
I don’t know if you’re going to see a lot of, you know, 35 point
games for Kendrick Bourne in the future, but it’s nice and he’s
probably still available on a ton of waiver wires.
But it sounds like Jennings could be good to go.
We’ll see with Purcell later on in the week.
I would expect probably both of them to return though with Mac
Jones under center. Tight ends slow injuries.
Again, find the rankings down, direct link in the description.
fourforfour.com. You can also find them for free
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for free. Brock Bowers is questionable
with a knee injury. He hasn’t practiced either of
the past two days. Obviously he’s played the past
few weeks. I would expect him to play, but
I even by his own admission, he is not running full speed, so
he’s not getting any separation. And Michael Mayer, we don’t know
yet because he’s still dealing with this concussion.
He’s questionable as well. I bumped down Bowers from tight
end 2 to tight end 7. So you’re probably playing.
I’m like, you’re not going to bench Brock Bowers, who’s
probably playing to go pick up some absolute loser tight end,
waste a bench spot and go do that.
You have Bowers. He’s probably as good as one of
the losers even at 30% as you’re going to roll out anyway.
So you’re kind of stuck with him, which sucks because he’s
not 100%, but you know, maybe he’s just playing 4D chess here
and he’s going to be fine. We’ll see what happens against
the Colts at tight end. Number one, it is Trey McBride
and then Tyler Warren comes in at Numero Dos Dallas.
Goddard is expected in. He is at tight end #10 this
week. My main man, Juwan Johnson
remains at tight end 9. Nuts down from tight end 5
earlier in the week because there is a possibility that both
pay some Hill and Foster Moreau return for the Saints against
the Giants this week. I don’t love those guys.
It’s just someone to take away potential touchdown upside from
Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson doesn’t block.
He runs routes on almost every single drop back.
I think that he’s going to be fine.
It’s just the overall touchdown equity does bump him down a
little bit, even though the Saints are favored in this game.
Just too many mouths to feed if they end up scoring A touchdown.
It’s like how Brendan Cooks has been taking away from the bottom
line of both Chris Olave, who has 80,000 targets and four
fantasy points because he’s fucking awful, and then Shaheed,
who just can’t get a completion down the field.
But it’s a big who cares on that front for me.
Ditto with No offense returning for the Bengals and Will Disley
probably returning for the Chargers.
I don’t really care about these guys.
That’s not where I’m looking now.
This one is intriguing because I went this way last week.
If you watch the show, you cash. Bigly on it.
Jetavion Sanders is out again with this ankle injury.
It seemed like he was close, although he’s probably out with
his high ankle sprain. In another week or two, we’ll
see. Tommy Tremble now comes in at
tight end #12 in the rankings. That’s down a little because
Dallas Goddard ended up playing, but Tremble scored two
touchdowns last week. Wouldn’t bank on that.
But again, even with Leget coming back, he is going to be
the primary route runner for the Carolina Panthers in this
offense against they pretty bad. We saw Mason Taylor light up the
Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
I mean light up for a Jets tight end, which I can’t even remember
in my lifetime, the last good Jets tight end.
But Tommy Tremble’s in a very good spot here again, very low
over unders, both on props on underdog. 2 1/2 receptions is
the total. I like the over on that.
He’s very cheap, $2900 on DraftKings.
If you have to go to a spot you need someone to pick up.
I like Tommy Tremble at least for one more week.
Well, Jetavion remains on this in on on the sidelines in
London. We got backup quarterbacks
galore because I mentioned that Dylan Gabriel is starting for
the Browns. We’ll see how that goes.
Gigi McCarthy is going to be out for the Vikings.
That puts Carson Wentz against Cleveland and he’s missing 2
offensive lineman. This has the recipe for like 8
turnovers in this game between these two quarterbacks.
So I don’t know if that necessarily lends itself to the
under because the defense can score too.
You bet both teams have scored defensively.
Might be the absolute bet of the week here in this London game,
but more on that in a second when I pile in with the props
from that game, the underdog play from that game, and we get
to the overall props in general for the week and the DraftKings
plays. Those were the injuries.
Those are the updated rankings. The rankings will continue to be
updated with whatever news that we get in the Mayo Media
newsletter and on fourforfour.com.
Hit the description, get the link, it’ll take you there
absolutely free. Check it out right now.
We got props coming right after this.
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Drink responsibly. Let’s dig into the Week 5 props.
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If you’re in Canada outside of Ontario, hit the description,
get yourself a $200 deposit bonus and you can play on the
PME weekly tab along with me. If you just go down the left
hand side PME weekly boost, you will see we got Jamison Williams
longest reception 24 yards or more.
That’s a bit adjusted up of what we want to do.
And then I adjusted up the under for Chase Brown’s under rushing
yards to under 60 1/2 and then Giants money line chucked on
there. They’re only 1 1/2 two point
favorites depending on where you look.
And then it is boosted up itself and that will pay 6 to 1 if
that’s the way that you want to go jumping over to underdog
fantasy. I played a few of them so far.
I’ll give you the one for let’s see here we go to pick em and
we’ll take a look at the London game.
So I was able to do 1. You know what we’ll do one for
the later games already, so let’s see we’ll go to this one.
There’s a 60% boost currently in the lobby on Underdog.
Additionally, there’s a 30% unlimited boost right now.
You can use it as many times as you want.
It’s a $50 Max, so you got to keep that in mind, but you can
use it if you just want to play up to 50 bucks.
You want to play 10 bucks, get that extra profit boost right
now, code Mayo at Underdog. If you play a $5 pick, pick of
entry, you will get at least $100 back in terms of bonus
funds, win or lose. You play a $5 pick of entry,
boom, those funds go into your account if you’re a new player
and you can use this unlimited profit boost as you can see
right here, this one, it’s Chico Congo, higher than 28.5
receiving yards. Gio and Tolbert, who I’ve
mentioned a few times higher than 3 1/2 receptions and Tommy
Tremble, who I mentioned higher than 27 1/2 yards that pays 8.82
to 1. So 50 bucks pays 441 in that
regard. So that is a good spot that you
can take advantage of of that per 30% profit boost.
I think that overall it pays almost 7 1/2 to one without the
profit boost on it, but those are the ones I like for the
later games. Here’s one that I ended up going
for with I think this one is the profit boost on it.
Maybe I forgot to put it on. I did forget to put it on and it
still pays, you know, 8.2 to one.
I think with the profit boost, it ends up around 12:50, but
it’s Dylan Gabriel, lower than 175 passing yards in this game.
Adam Thielen, I adjusted him up lower than 19 1/2 receiving
yards. Judkins, who has been excellent
on the ground. I think that you can take a
little bit of advantage of the Vikings rush defense versus the
past defense. At least so far this season.
That’s what we’ve seen. I got higher than 74.5 rushing
yards. I also went to Harold Fannon.
This one is down a little bit. It’s like -140 but higher than 2
1/2 receptions. I do think that the rookie will
try to take the easier passes. I do think that the lower A dot
routes, the easier passes in this game are probably going to
go to Harold Fannon. He’s just going to be open.
Damn. I don’t.
He’s going to have like 100 yards, but three catches for 29
yards gets the job done for us in this entry.
This would be the way that I am playing it on Underdog.
I have a few more. Just do you want to see what
they are, what we got here? Got some college football ones.
I got some, I played the same one I but I played it as a flex
play for a bit more money. That one’s a $200 entry.
So I got a few more that I’ll try to cook up.
You can pay attention to my Twitter feed and I might put out
some more during the games, but that’s where I’m at right now
with them. And then we can jump over to the
Sharp Stack app to see what that is.
Liking for the NFL prop so far this week 4 for four.com/mayo
will get you over to the four for Four page.
Right now under my page, if you use code Mayo 50, you can get
the Sharp Stack app on a 7 day free trial, free to use for
seven days with code Mayo 50. Then it’s 50% off the monthly
plan after that with that code Mayo 50, take the seven days,
see if you like it, see if it’s working for you.
And we can even play them against my picks this week.
So there’s a couple that I really like.
I mentioned Jio and Tolbert over 3 1/2 receptions.
Cooper Rush under 4 1/2 rushing yards.
Chase Brown under 51 1/2 rushing yards.
Jamar Chase over 66.5 receiving yards.
Jamison Williams 22 1/2 longest reception, all ones that I’m on
this week. Quinton Johnston, 23 1/2 over,
longest reception against a very bad back end of the Washington
Commanders. Jackson Dart over 38 1/2 rushing
yards. These are all on the table for
me, but here’s what the computer is telling us to do.
Adam Thielen under 1.5 receptions in the London game.
He only ran 12 routes last week. That was with the return of
Jordan Addison. Jalen Naylor was on the field a
lot more than he was. And Carson Wentz is going to be
under duress this entire game against the Browns.
The highest one right now. You can play that at fanatics
-165 for the under of 1 and and a half receptions, one of the
higher EVs on the board. Not the highest though.
When you sort by EV Dylan Gabriel under 181.5 passing
yards -115 you can even play that in a weird correlation as
well. I was.
That’s what I was able to do to get back the famine number that
I wanted to get. So if you go to the NFL and you
can see the players that I had been looking up, even on
underdog, you can get this to work.
You can get it to work on many different places.
But if you just go to Dylan Gabriel and we Scroll down,
let’s see here, there’s Judkins, there’s Fannins, we’ll take the
.76. So not very high, but you’re
you’re eating a lot of vig here on the over 2 1/2 receptions.
However, when you get yourself to Dylan Gabriel and you take
the under in the passing yards, I won’t give you anything here.
Great. So if we go to record, yeah, you
can get yourself almost back up to even even with another crappy
odds one that goes along with it.
So just straight up a you need to find a third to go with this
and you can use the free pick. That’s something else that you
get if you use code Mayo as a new player right now.
But even you know, even with that correlation, you’re going
to bump it up higher than probably it should be.
And you can see that the app loves Bill and Gabriel under 181
passing years. You can find that at MGM right
now. Hunter Renfro under 2 1/2
receptions because it plays pays such plus money makes a bit of
sense. I like to tremble over Hunter
Renfro. I think he got to three last
week. It was pretty dicey though.
I don’t love these ones because it’s really just playing on what
the vig is, but the computer’s telling you if you played it
every single time in the long run you’d end up being a winner.
He always hate to do these with, you know, the under 2 1/2 when
you know that a player has A7 reception upside, but a bad run
defense for or the Miami Dolphins are going to give the
ball to ETN and Dowdell as much as possible.
Obviously tet tremble and now if we’ll get back, it could bump
Renfro off the field a little bit more.
Plus 137 for under 2 1/2 receptions.
AD Mitchell over 22.5 yards. That’s actually a pretty good
one. I like that one a lot.
Let’s see what we got cooking here for AD Mitchell on
underdog, what his total and number is going to be.
He’s 29 1/2 receiving yards there.
So at bet MGM right now -118 for AD Mitchell, that’s even
probably something you can ARB on some spots probably don’t
have to. I like the over because again,
we have no Alec Pierce in this game.
It’s not like they’re using downs down the field.
I mean, Mitchell got there last week.
He dropped the touchdown. That doesn’t matter.
He would have hit the over 22 1/2 pretty easily.
Jackson Dart passing yards is another big one that people seem
to be on. At least the computer projects
out. I like his over rushing yards of
37 1/2. However, under 186 1/2 passing
yards right now, that’s the same number and same big at Hard Rock
and Bet MGM. You can both play those.
I’m guessing that if you go to the prop screen, you can find
them at different places as well.
Let’s take a look at what that number is across the board and
what the vig is across the board for Giants and Saints in this
game. So passing yards, you can see
it’s as low as 172 that is at bookmaker right now and as high
as 186.5. All that’s been vigged up pretty
well I bet MGM. DraftKings has it at 175, so
almost 11. It’s 11 yards lower at
DraftKings. FanDuel has it as 8 yards lower,
so it really does help. You can find all of the
different books on the Sharp Stack app.
When there’s a prop that you like, you can find it with the
vig. You can find it with the number
as well. It is imperative that you site
shop for all of these places to get yourself the best number in
the long run. If you’re making $100 bets on
this, you’re saving yourself what, 10 bucks almost every
single time. If you can find $0.10 on a
number between -115 and -1 O 5, it’s hard enough to hit these at
a high rate anyway, saving that $0.10 is like a 300 bucks over
the course of 10 bets if you save yourself $0.10 a time.
So it is very important that you end up going with it.
Saquon Berkeley over or sorry under 2 1/2 receptions plus 115.
Anytime you can kind of take the underarm Berkeley in receptions,
you probably go for it. We’ll see.
We’ve seen that the run blocking for the Eagles has been just
quite terrible so far this year. We know that the Broncos are
going to be bringing the heat. Will that lead to Saquon Barkley
receptions? You can always go to projections
and see what comes in. So we’ll go to running backs and
we’ll go to, we can just search the player.
We’ll go to Saquon Barkley. We have him as a slight over on
the receptions of he’s projected for 2.66.
So on the bell curve, obviously it’s not going to be 2.66, it’s
more than likely going to be two or three.
But you were getting odds to do it.
So I think it was plus 122 is what we saw in that regard.
So what we’re seeing is that if you bet 100 bucks, you win 122.
So it’s worth it to take the gamble at even a smaller, even
if it’s a 5152% loser because of the odds, it would actually
inflate it up because you’re getting plus money back on the
other side of that. So that’s how you can leverage a
lot of these to do what you want.
Again, fourforfour.com/mayo get you to the main screen code.
Mayo 50 get you the seven day free trial, which also get you
all the season long fantasy, all the DFS tools, the SIM tools,
everything like that. Plus the Discord where Noonan’s
going to have his tackle props, Deforest Buckner, if he plays,
which he should. He had a Veteran’s Day rest on
on Friday. I like him over tackles, 3 1/2
and 4 1/2 against Gentie. They’re going to try to pound
Gentie. It’s not going to work.
Buckner is either going to get sacks or he’s going to stop
Gentie at the line of scrimmage. So over 3 1/2, probably right
around even Monday is a really good look at just those tackle
props. Have not populated yet, but you
do get the sharp stack system along with the projections, the
ARB tool, everything that you just saw on the screen, plus
more. Some of the stuff that I didn’t
even go to in those tabs. Free seven days plus a 50% off
discount for the monthly plan there on out code
[email protected]/mail right now.
OK, let’s move to DraftKings. And as I mentioned, one of the
other tools that you can get involved with that sharp stack
and Code Mayo 50 is all of the DFS tools that we’re going with
this week. This is the optimizer and SIM
tool and ownership projections from 4 for four underneath the
DFS tab. You can find everything in
there, all of Squirrel Patrol’s content, showdown simulator,
solver lineup, generator, floor and ceiling projections,
ownership projections, stack projections, everything like
that. I am just looking over who is
going to be the highest owner, who are the best values of the
week are going to be as you can see right now, highest projected
ownership is going to be Devin A chain.
These will update on Saturday evening and Sunday morning to
give you the better sense cuz I have a feeling, I know that he’s
not going to be very highly up there.
Rico Dattle is only projecting right now for 9% ownership.
I think of all of the cheap running backs who are coming in
this week between D Mercado, Rashawn White, Sean Tucker,
Michael Carter and Rico Daddle, Daddle will be the one where
everyone goes. So you can see he’s a very high
GPP value at 5.39. We’ll see who the best ones are
going into that. Right now it’s a big high points
per dollar value. Using him at $4300 is a way that
you can not necessarily get different because everyone, I
think like 9% ownership, I think that’s going to end up being
like 15 to 20% and even higher in smaller stakes contest
because Michael Carter is just not projecting well.
People are going to try to save money somewhere.
Carter only 4% own. I don’t hate playing him either,
I just prefer Dowdle. Maybe as a pivot you can go to
Carter. I just thought it was
interesting that right now we’re seeing a chain.
Jonathan Taylor, Omarion Hampton all coming in at very high
ownership. Breece Hall did it.
Right now all four of those running backs are being
projected for over 20% ownership with a Chan as high as 35%.
Like just the easy run back. If you’re going to pair up a
chain with someone else, it’s going to be a chain and dattle
or a chain and tremble. In my mind, that’s the way that
I would play it at the other positions.
Jackson Smith in Jigma, Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens and Ammon
Ross St. Brown are the four that are
really popping off the page. Then you’re down into Garrett
Wilson and Quinton Johnston, all of them projecting between 15
and 25% at the moment at the position.
Tyler Warren and Trey McBride right around 20%.
So all of these guys are very high prices.
Like we haven’t got to a single value play yet.
The the highest value play that people seem to be gravitating
towards, Rashad White at $4700, I don’t think that’s a good
play. I think Dowdell and Carter for
cheaper prices at lower ownership, at least projected at
the moment, much better plays on this slate than Rashad White.
Famous last words, Pat’s going against someone, but split,
split carries. Maybe he makes it up through the
receiving game and scores a touchdown, but going up against
a very good defense. I do not like this situation at
all. And then we start to take a look
at some of the other positions. The best quarterback in terms of
ownership on this late Justin Herbert, right around 18%.
I think that ends up coming in lower.
And then you got no one until Daniel Jones.
So Herbert and Jones are going to be the most likely duo that
people are building with as a starting point.
You can watch the show on Friday on Mayo Media Network, sub to
the channel and you will see lineups that we built with both
of those quarterbacks to stack up those games and how you can
still get a little bit different.
What this tells me right now is that no one can jam all these
guys in. We built a bunch of lineups on
Friday that feature a Chan, Jonathan Taylor and Breece Hall.
And then Breece Hall is a very good value at only $5600.
But how do you get around that? Like you can stack up?
And Jamir Gibbs is another one that we worked in against
Cincinnati just because he was not popping off the page like
17% ownership. I don’t think that he gets that
high because it is impossible to play all these guys together at
some of these ownership. You’re going to have to use a
Dattle which takes up one of your running back spots or
Rashad White. The other way that you can go is
to use some of the cheaper wide receivers.
So instead of using George Pickens to go opposite Breece
Hall, you can use Jill and Tolbert at $3600.
Boom. Then you can play 3 stud running
backs which are the safer options.
Darius Slayton is the same price as Rico Dattle.
You can make A1V1 swap instead of using Warren or using Trey
McBride. It’s expensive options.
The tight end Tommy Tremble is just sitting there for everyone
to use at $2900 and works in the game stack where a chain comes
along. Anyway, if we just look at
values this week, Garrett Wilson is the best on the board for GPP
value. It’s him, Bri Saul, a chain,
then Rico Dattle at #4 Jonathan Taylor, O’marion Hampton, who I
don’t love this week. I mean, I like his passing
prowess. I don’t think he’s going to run
all over Washington. That’s just me.
It’s been a bad look for him. If you want to take advantage of
Washington, which we’ve seen so far this season, throw deep on
them. That’s why I like QJ more than
anyone else on the Chargers side.
Got Rashad White projecting as a very good value, Javonte
Williams at $6200 projecting as a value.
Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Gibbs Waddle.
None of these guys like the highest guy.
Honestly, who’s getting lost in the mix.
Baltimore has no defense to speak of right now.
Everyone is hurt. Woody Marks took over in that
backfield for the Texans last week, both on the ground and in
the receiving game. Scored the two touchdowns.
It’s not like he’s like 99% getting the snaps like Nick
Chubbs going to have his work. But there’s a great situation.
The Texans are favored against the Ravens.
They have no defense of Woody Marks because of the cheap
values that have emerged and Breeze Hall being right around
the same price. Only $5400 for Woody Marks, 3%
projected ownership. He might come in even lower than
that. That was a very good calculated
gamble if you want to pivot off Breeze Hall and get access to
that Texans and Ravens game, which is not going to be like a
super, super good game for fantasy purposes, but a good
spot for Woody Marks. The other two in that similar
range that no one really seems to want to go to Scataboo with
no Tyrone Tracy and a good matchup against the Saints.
Only 8% ownership and then at 52 percent, 52, $100 and 3%
ownership. Everyone’s, everyone wants
pieces of this Lions and Bengals game because you can beat up on
the Lions, yet no one is using David Montgomery.
That’s usually famous last words.
I too would love to jam in Gibbs as much as possible, but he’s
cheap, no one’s using him and it’s a spot where he just might
score 3 touchdowns in this game. So very interesting.
If you did want to pivot off of some of those lower tier running
backs that we talked about like I like Dattle, then Carter,
those would be the two that I use.
But if you’re not going to have to save the money there, I think
that you. Would go to maybe that mid range
because everyone who does fade a lot of the cheaper and tight the
cheaper and running backs is just going to throw in as many
as possible of the expensive options or use Breeze Hall at
$5600. If you can get away from that,
that might be the move to make your team slightly different.
If you go with one of those Herbert or Daniel Jones or even
Justin Fields builds, which are all going to be pretty popular
this week. You can see Jo and Tolbert does
project out as one of the better values on the slate. 3600
dollars is 11th in wide receiver value and at only $3600 just
rates out really well because he allows you to do a ton in your
lineups because the because of that price point at tight end.
The other ones that we’re looking at right now, McBride,
Ferguson and Juwan Johnson, it takes a while to get down to my
main man time with Tommy Tremble is only projected for seven
points. I will go against the computer
on this one and play him at that.
Big savings. You can play Gaddison.
I wouldn’t because it seems like Will Dizzley is going to be
back. He’s not going to run all those
routes but the cheapest 1 you can find like Mason Taylor maybe
is the throw in piece to that high scoring game.
If you’re going to play a jet stack anyway.
I would still prefer Tremble as I said.
Or maybe Chig gets a bad defense against tight ends for the
Arizona Cardinals and Chig might be the primary pass catching off
option for Cam Ward against the Titans in a big catch up spot.
I just don’t want to play any Titans so that doesn’t really
work out for me. You can also test out all of
your lineups. Like just you set the optimizer
for what it’s going to be. You see Fields, Fields and
Darnal lineups and then you can SIM them for different size
contests if you want to. So in the large field MME, this
lineup is Fields with let’s see here.
You got 2 Dolphins. So it’s Garrett Wilson and
Fields together and Jake Ferguson as a bring back.
So that’s actually makes a lot of sense.
Jonathan Taylor, one of the better plays of running back
8000, he’s in there. You got 2 Dolphins, Waddle and a
Chan coming together just to try to hope.
That’s a concentrated offense. That’s where all the scoring
come from. You have Alec Aomanor at $4100.
This is where or I would actually just play Geo Geo and
Tolbert and save the money and try to get better somewhere
else. Debo Samuel at $6300 in the
flex. Texans D my favorite cheap D of
the week as well. It’s them, the Giants and the
Seahawks for below $3000 for me. You can find all the ownerships
in the CHEAT SHEET coming out later on Saturday evening.
Updated again on Sunday morning when you click back on it.
But this is a pretty decent lineup.
You know it’s a top one percenter.
We’ll see how that goes. So this is for a large field MME
with over 10,000 entrants. This is theoretical going to
cash in tournament simulations 26% of the time.
Obviously it’s a win rate in a 10,000 entry plus tournament,
it’s not going to win all that often.
Top 1%, right around .1%, so not the end of the world.
Good ROI on this lineup of right around 20% because of the
ownership and projections that come into place with it.
So it’s a very solid GPP exclusive lineup for large field
tournaments. The thing you need to remember
is how does that go against small field MM ES where you’re
right around 100, like 1000 entries, or large field single
entries, or small field single entries or even 3 Max
competitions of 3000 plus. Let’s simulate this out for a
small field GP250 plus entrance. So yeah, when you get to the
minimum of that, does that this rate out well?
No, it does not rate out all that well in a smaller field
tournament, which is very interesting.
That shows you the juxtaposition between large field GP PS and
what it takes to get to the top of that.
That still cashes around 22% of the time, wins .4% of the time,
top one per .1% point 4% of the time.
But you’re going to lose out to more stable line UPS that just
feature better players in them. And you can see how often that
they come, you know, a top 8% finish, this comes a top 9%
finish. This line up finish in the 9th
percentile of the contest and 79.8% of those simulations.
So there’s a lot of different variables that go into
thisbutagain444.com/mayo. You can get the 50% off monthly
package that includes this SIM product.
It includes all of those tools plus Sharp stack, plus the
Discord to go back and forth. There’s also different ways that
you can go through everything. If you just go back to players,
you can hand build lineups as well and just, you know, do
those at the same time and run through the simulations if you
want to see how well that would work out for you in those
smaller field terms. Because I like to hand build
smaller field tournament stuff as well.
And now that I can run them through the simulations to see
if it’s profitable or not in the long run versus the expectation
of the ownership that we’re getting.
In that sense, it’s made me a better player.
I’ve been winning. I’ve won 3 or 4 weeks so far of
DraftKings which is very helpful and just getting the information
from both John and Tambo on that Friday show as I’m trying to
build lineups, trying to find the theory.
The big thing is, is you need to know that you’re not going to
win every single week. If you’re going to be playing
these giant field tournaments with the SIM product can do is
at least try to help you maximize the good weeks that you
have that you’re not just, you know, winning double your money
in large field GPPS. That when you have a chance to
get to the top, that you have the right simulated lineups that
you can do fourforfour.com/mayo right now.
Get on that main page, Mayo 50 to get 50% off.
That’s the CHEAT SHEET for week #5 if you want to get the list
of the rankings, you want to get the ownership percentages all
updated. I’ll have this CHEAT SHEET in
article form in my newsletter completely free.
Go sign up for it right now. It’s down in the description.
Additionally, you can find it at fourforfour.com.
If you just want the updated rankings list, that’s already
done. That’s in the newsletter.
And the direct link for the update on 4 for Four is just out
of the description right now. Please go click on that, check
them all out and if you have a question, a start sick question,
any question you got, you got to smash the like you got us up to
the channel. Then you can leave it down in
the comment section right now. I’ll get to it Saturday evening
and or Sunday morning before the London kickoff promises.
All right, thank you all for watching.
Have a good week #5 I’ll see you Sunday Night Live at 7:15 PM
Eastern Time right here on Mayo Media Network with myself custom
to return of Gary and Thorne. You can go set your reminder
right now for that because it’s a a lot of fun doing that show
before Sunday Night Football, but until then, we’ll see you
next time.