Picks and predictions | 2025 Procore Championship | Betting on U.S. Ryder Cup players

The PGA TOUR stops in Napa for the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort. Ten of the 11 players on the U.S. Ryder Cup team are in the field. Are any of them worth picking? Plus we have picks for outright winner and other best bets and props.

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Time to make some picks on the PGA Tour. The Procore Championship at Napa Silverado Resort Northcourse. Team USA is here. But are they worth picking this week? One thing is for sure, your winner is going to start very fast at Procore this week. In fact, all 11 winners at this course have gained at least two strokes on the field in the first round. That’s more than any other tour event since 2015. An average of four and a half strokes gained on the field in one round alone. What does that mean? We’re going to digest it here on the round table. Chris Bree, Paul Hodawanik, and Will Gray. Will, what do you think? TMUSA is here, but they got to start fast. Yeah, this is going to be an interesting week to see how these guys handle wine country and the tests of Silverado. We’re going to get into the course characteristics in a little bit, but it is not necessarily a bombers paradise. And I think as that stat references, it’s a place where the leader can kind of get out to a lead and protect as opposed to one where we see a ton of, you know, come from behind victories, but certainly looking at the RDER Cup angle, knowing 10 of the 12 Americans that are going to play at Beth Page in two weeks are teeing it up this week at the Pro Court to kick off FedEx Cup fall. It adds Paul a little bit of intrigue, some more storylines for us uh to work through on the content side, but it is definitely going to be uh a group that we’ll keep an eye on for the for the next few days. Yeah, you got to assume. I mean, these are the highlights of the field. These 10 RDER Cup players that are in the field. It’s just it’s an it’s an interesting week because what some of these players we haven’t seen for more than a month since the Windham championship. So, it’s hard to play off P or recent form because we really can’t say much about what they did a month ago. Maybe that carries over to this week, maybe it doesn’t. Maybe they spent the month working on things. Then we have a couple guys obviously lot a lot of those RDER Cup guys that we saw just a couple weeks ago. So it’s an interesting week from that angle and then yeah how focused are they on this tournament when they’ve also got the RDER Cup in two weeks. You have to digest all that this week. So obviously you could feel like every RDER Cuper has something different to play for. If you’re Scotty Sheffller, you’re Scotty Sheffller. It doesn’t matter. You’re there to win no matter what and people expect you to win with those odds. But then you’ve got players who barely made this US team. Well, and to me it seems like those are the ones who actually have motivation this week and to me the ones that you may want to pick. I mean, first of all, I’m looking at this graphic and minus 400 price and Sky Shuffler for a top 10 finish is absurd. I don’t know what sort of world we’re living in, but the guy has not finished outside the top 20 uh since the players at March. So, I guess it makes sense. But T8 or better for pretty much infinity. Uh so, you know, I guess there’s something to be said for that. But yeah, I agree. Listen, the guy that we’re seeing right now, Ben Griffin, Mr. Aviators, I think he has some potential to be a big wild card at Beth Page in a good way for the US team. And I’m fascinated to see how he performs this week knowing, you know, a lot of these guys are showing up this week because of the perceived criticism of the 2023 team that they didn’t play enough leading into Italy. A lot of those guys had three or four weeks off after the tour championship. And so now Keegan Bradley is the US captain said, “No, I want to get the guys together. I want to play. Maybe we can read some of these pairings.” We’ll see. But I I think someone like Ben Griffin uh could have an X factor this week and is someone that I’ll have an eye on to see what, you know, how are they dealing with and digesting being on this team? Because when he left East Lake, I’m sure he felt like he had a great chance to be on the team, but he didn’t know until he got that call from Keegan Bradley and now he is part of that 12 that’s going to head to New York in a couple weeks. And how does that impact his performance as he looks to continue to build on what’s been a career year? Yeah, and I think like there is a general sentiment, oh, their mind’s going to be wandering on the RDER Cup. Things maybe not going to go great for them this week. I don’t really buy into that. I mean, we saw last week on the DP World Tour, Rory Mroy win the Irish Open. Obviously, that has a little bit of a hometown feel to it, but Rory said it himself like what you want going into the RDER Cup is to be playing well. And so, all these guys want to play well, to feel the confidence, feel the momentum going into next week. and playing in Beth Page in front of those fans is like nothing you experience, but the closest thing you experience week week in and week out is just by contending. So, I think a lot of these guys are going to want to contend, want to feel that juice, especially after not playing for the last couple weeks. So, maybe some people have some hesitancy about the motivations and how that squares with some people that are trying to keep their cards on the PJ tour playing this fall. I really don’t read into that at all. I think these guys are going to want to win. Scotty Shuffler is the best player at compartmentalizing every week. So I think that’s value makes sense. Uh that minus 400 number uh makes a lot of sense just given his play and given that like I don’t think he’s going to be distracted. So I’m not cautious about, you know, betting those guys or or favoring those guys into this week. And I think people need to realize this is their profession. They do this every single week. And just because they have a big event coming up, maybe the biggest event of their lives for some of them is not going to change how they go about a week’s a week’s process as a professional. You and I would go out there if we had something going on in two weeks. It’ be way different. But these guys these guys are honed in every week. So I agree. If you want to pick these US guys, pick them. It’s all going to be a matter of though, can they keep the ball in the fairway? Because last year, this was the toughest place to hit fairways on tour at 46.8%. In fact, you look at the last four years, three of the four winners here were inside the top 10 and driving accuracy. You see the winners compared to the field and accuracy hitting the fairway. Will, is it that big of a deal hitting the fairway here? I think there’s some correlation in terms of the stat that you see there with the winners outpacing the field. Generally, it shows they’re hitting the ball a little better. either hitting it straight or for sure. You know, these are very tight fairways at the north course at Silverado. It’s not exactly US Open rough when you get a stray. You’re still able to, you know, make some escapes. And honestly, it’s more if you’ve been out there, it’s a lot more tree trouble than, you know, what you can do out of the rough. This is definitely a, you know, Northern California typical course that it’s trees everywhere around these little nooks and crannies. So, a lot of times you can miss a fairway by just a couple yards and now all of a sudden you’re trying to hit this punch out or hit a little, you know, draw around a corner as opposed to being in the fairway and you get a full shot at the green. So, those sort of pieces can start to add up over the course of 72 holes. It it is definitely a place where you think of a guy like Cameron Young, one of the best drivers in the PJ tour, playing really well at winning the Windom and through the playoffs. I don’t know that his strengths are going to be accentuated as much this week as they would on a course like Beth Paige in two weeks. It is it is more a place in Silverado of keep the ball in front of you and be able to attack the birdie holes, the par fives when they come up and just make sure that you’re avoiding some of the squares on the scorecard. Yeah. And to me like we have seen winners that can bomb it here like it’s not like prohibitive of those players. Cam Champs won here. I was uh at the tournament when Sah Fagala won. I wouldn’t call him a bomber, but he’s certainly not accurate. And he was hitting recovery shots from everywhere and getting up and down and putting and when he was hitting the fairway, obviously converting on those opportunities. And when it’s that hard to hit the fairway, sometimes to me it’s just like, well, everyone’s going to miss fairways. So, it’s really some of it’s going to be luck in terms of what holes you miss the fairways on, where those trees are in those spots because the rough is not heavy at Procore. At least it hasn’t been when I’ve been there. So I to me this is more like it’s a little bit of luck and I’m still gonna favor some of the guys that hit a little further because if it’s this difficult to hit fairways even your most accurate player is going to miss some this week. And I I think another big key that our stats people told us this week was strokes gain te to green more so than on the green which to me will is confusing because if we’re looking at what 20 under one last year 21 under the year before there’s been some lower numbers but in general your winners are shooting 66 as an average. To me that means making putts. So I I got a little confusion when it says te to green’s the most important but you still got to make putts to win. Yeah, it’s it is, you know, a bit of a unique setup in terms of their relatively smaller range. You’ve got POA up in Northern California that’s going to be tough for anyone to putt on. So, this is not a place where you’re going to see guys roll in 60, 70, 80 foot putts to really, you know, reach out on on the strokes game putting metric. It’s a lot, you know, how do you get to 20 under? There’s a few different ways. And the way that guys tend to do it at Silverado is first off, taking care of the par fives and then secondly hitting a bunch of approach shots inside that 10, 15, 20 foot range. you’re not necessarily rolling in the long ones. It’s a matter of of trying to really capitalize on the frequency of the approaches knowing that with the small greens and the small targets if you’re in, you know, in close proximity, you’re probably going to be setting yourself up more than more often than not with a makeable birdie pup. We got the data, we got the stats. Let’s make some picks, boys. Paul, best bet. Top 10. Jackson Kyven, talk to me. Yeah, Jackson Kven. Uh, I was enticed a little bit by this top five number, but I think with just the amount of those RDER Cup players that are in this field, uh, I’m a little bit hesitant. There’s just obviously there’s only five spots up there, but Jackson Kyan, regardless of the level, pro amter, one of the hottest golfers in the world, won a couple times in college this season. Obviously, he’s coming off a Walker Cup victory from the US. He got into this event based on a top 10 at the Windom. He had a top 10 the week before, I think a T11 the week before that, all on the PGA Tour. So, kind of like we saw with Luke Clanton a couple years ago in this kind of stretch of the season, uh, you can go low and these college kids are really, really good. And I think Jackson Kovven is the cream of the crop that we’re seeing right now. And so just based on that current form, like plus 360 for a guy with that talent and the way that he’s been playing, like if you look at data golf over the last three months of the guys in this field, I think the top eight are seven RDER Cup players from the American side and then Jackson Koven. So I’m going to bet Jackson Cory has better numbers uh at least odds wise than any of those guys to get this done. Jackson Kovven not turning pro until potentially after the NCAA’s in May. This is not the last time he’ll be mentioned on a golf bet round table over the subsequent what seven or eight months. Uh this is a guy with some serious game. You mentioned the Luke Clinton comps from last year are legit. Uh and and I think that he’s someone that’s going to pop up especially in those top finish markets with some frequency when he’s playing on the PJ tour uh from now until next summer. We can talk about players and the potential they have. Players who have shown it will but maybe have not shown it lately. Why do you like Akai Batia here? Yeah, I I think this is a bit of a a high variance option for me with a you think back to some of the the big rounds that he’s had this year, whether it’s a T3 players, he kind of peaked a couple times as well over the summer. He has a T9 finish at this event a couple years ago around some mis cuts and it’s just a place where it seems to be able to bring out the best of him. This is an interesting moment for guys like a I think Maverick McNeely is certainly in this conversation of you’re surrounded by these US RDER Cup players and and candidly you probably hoped four or five months ago that you’d be on this team and so how do you how does that dynamic kind of play out um for Ace knowing that he he kind of you know not necessarily faltered but but faded down the stretch uh of the season. So, I I just think the plus 700 on a top five, I’d rather have that than maybe a plus 300 or plus 350 on a top 10 because I do think he has the game as a two-time PJ tour winner to really get up close toward the the the lead over the weekend if his game is firing on all cylinders and if those those ball striking numbers that we saw in the spring tend to pop back up a little bit. And I do like Ash just hitting some of those creative shots if he finds himself under trees or needing to kind of manipulate his spin, his trajectory. I think we saw that at the players really, really well from Ashe. Like one of the premier guys ball striking wise, approach play, but then just being able to manipulate shots. He’s one of the better guys. So has been spraying it a little bit off the tea, but I think he’s one of those guys that I kind of back to find a way out of it uh if he does. So I like that pick. you I will say also on the Oshay point uh credit to to our our industry colleague Ben Kohley over on the other side of the pond uh there are more comps between TPC San Antonio and Silverado than you might think in terms of guys that have played well at both courses and it’s not exactly uh two courses I would think of that are that are very similar you know TPC San Antonio very wide open windswept not a lot of trees but uh if you look back over the course of of the last 15 or 20 years you do have a few guys uh Brendan Steel comes to mind. You also got Steven Bodic and uh Martin Lair and a couple others that have played well at both or have won both events. That’s why you do the research. That’s why you watch the show. Uh Will, you made a comment about Cameron Young. I thought it was going to be positive. It turned out to be negative, but I actually and I actually think that Cameron Young’s putter is going to be part of his strength this week. I was very surprised to see that he’s sixth on tour in strokes gain putting. Depending how you want to look at that metric, you can. He’s also very good tea to green. I I understand why the driver could be a concern, but I think his overall game here is good enough for a top 10. I I’m a little surprised that with the strength of the field, top 10 for him is 2 to one, but that just goes to show the strength of his game right now. This is a guy, Will, who has not been outside the top 11 since the open championship. And like like we said earlier, he wants to prove to Keegan that he’s a good pick and he can play more than a couple of RDER Cup matches. I mean, listen, you’re buying high on Cameron Young. It is definitely a moment where his game is in about as good of a shape uh as it’s been in his career, and he now has that confidence boost from not only winning Windom, but really doing it in emphatic fashion. Followed it up with a really good showing at Memphis, final round 64. carried that all the way through the last two rounds of the or legs of the playoffs. So, I I agree with you there. I mean, he’s playing with some confidence and now getting that pick for the Ryder Cup team is even a bigger confidence boost. And and you’re right, the putter is going to be a big key to his success both this week and two weeks from now. If that is going to show up, especially out west on the poetic greens that are traditionally tricky to putt on, that’s really going to help round him out. It’s not like he’s going to be, you know, bunting the ball around. he’s still going to have an advantage off the tee even if he’s using three-wood or a hybrid or iron off the tee in some of those spots where you need to on the dog legs at Silverado. So, if the putter is there, if he has a very well-rounded uh, you know, option, I think that he’s going to be in the mix for sure for a top 10. And Chris, you mentioned starting fast and just needing to make a lot of birdies on this course. Cameron Young is 12th in birdie average uh this year. So, if you’re looking for a guy that can fill it up, uh he can fill it up. It’s just about limiting some of those mistakes and some of those big big drives to keep himself in contention. We are not afraid of picking Ryder Cupers this week. Are we Paul? No. Ben Griffin uh we talked about him earlier in the show. Just very bullish both statistically how he profiles for this course, but then just kind of anecdotally and the vibes surrounding Ben Griffin at this point. I got to think as a player who’s never played in a Ryder Cup, never played in the President’s Cup, not quite on the radar of most people coming into the year as a Ryder Cup pick, like he had to feel some pressure to go out there and earn it. And he really really did over this summer. And so I think just that release of not having to have that weight on your shoulders uh of am I going to make this team, am I not going to make this team can just lead to even more success for Ben Griffin this week. And then obviously, like you said, he wants to feel like he’s prepped, playing well, and proving himself as a good pick. I think all those things are in favor for Ben Griffin. And truly, like the more stats you look at, it’s basically like who’ve been the best players over the last couple months. And Ben Griffin doesn’t fall outside the top five when you look at most of those things. He’s a great T Green player, as we talked about, Chris, right? When you mentioned that first round uh average stat, I looked up his first round scoring average. He’s top 15 in that. So, just all the indicators uh pointing me to Ben Griffin at uh at the number we have here. I I don’t have a ton to add to that other than I just want Ben Griffin to be the chief vibes officer of the US Ryder Cup team. I think that uh there is there is immense potential for him at the end of this at the end of this month up at Beth Page. Uh I don’t know if you’re going to say the same about Vibes officer as your winner will. Mr. Flatline, we must have everyone happy vibes. Yeah. Uh Patty Ice, let’s let’s run it back. I listen if we’re looking at this field it is clear that there’s so much strength with those US RD cup participants and of that group I I feel particularly strong about Patrick Kentlay as someone who has a lot of Silverado experience he’s played this tournament more than most of the guys uh that are coming in you know Scotty Shuffler is making his tournament debut there’s you know he obviously has his thumb on the scale from the odds perspective down there at plus 210 and so then it trickles down to other guys like Russell Henley and here Patrick Kentlay who and he’s coming off just a couple weeks ago. Uh, you know, had a great performance at East Lake, nearly won the FedEx Cup as opposed to, you know, some of these guys that are in this field. We haven’t seen, as you said, Chris, since the Windham Championship or even before then. So, I I like that there’s a little bit of recent form. I like that there’s a little bit of momentum for Patrick Kentley. He’s going to a course that that can accentuate uh some of his skills. He’s never missed a cut at the Pro Core. Has always shot in the 60s. We mentioned that fast start factor. He’s always been in the 60s for round one at Silverado. So, at plus 1,800, I think that I’m willing to take a chance on him, knowing that if he gets off to another solid opener, that number is going to dwindle into rounds two and three. And it would surprise no one to see Patrick Canle lifting the trophy, even though he is now more than three years removed from his most recent PJ tour. It is, it’s funny to think that a Patrick Can win could be a crazy storyline, but it would be maybe. And when you talk about the fall, I I feel like there’s always a storyline where we get a winner who nobody expected. Uh I’m picking Davis Thompson, guys, uh for the similar reason that Will, you’re picking Ak Beta for a top five. I I think these players Davis now hearing this specifically is too good of a player not to figure it out eventually. You look at how lackluster his 2025 was. It was nowhere near his victory in 2024 and all those great wins he had. He was still top 20 T degree. I love that. And this is a player who only needs a few good breaks. I think he does the reset button. He looks at this fall as a new chance. He knows how to play. He’s hitting the ball really well. His putter has been awful. He’s losing a ton of strokes on the green. He gets that going. I think he’s the kind of player who you look at, you say, “How’d he win that week?” Oh, yeah. He’s won before and he’s been really close to winning a lot of other events. I think he’s the type of story line you look for winners like this all throughout the fall cuz they’re really out there. We’ve talked about in previous shows how the margins are getting thinner on the PGA Tour and this is a great example. Davis Thompson finishing 71st uh in the FedEx Cup in the regular season. Normally in you know a couple years ago that number was fine. Now it left him on the outside looking in of the postseason. So, how does he respond knowing that we’ve had a couple of guys, you know, whether it’s Ben Griffin or JJ Spawn or um you know, Maverick McNeely last year who used the fall as a springboard into next year’s season. Uh whether you’re getting into the A on swing 10 or just setting yourself up with a little bit of momentum. So, Davis Thompson has that multi-year exemption for winning the deer back in 24. He’s still going to be in a lot of the events that you want to be in, but he’s outside of the signatures. And maybe this is a way uh if he gets off to a good start in the fall, potentially spikes another win to get into some of those exclusive events in 2026, knowing that it is that much more difficult these days to both uh earn and maintain your playing status among the upper echelon of the PJ tour. And if there was a playing surface where your putting has been an issue, like going to PO where everyone’s going to struggle, where bumps are going to kind of push putts offline for pretty much everyone in the field, like that’s when I worry a little bit less about how well you’ve puted, especially when for in Thompson’s case, you miss the playoffs, you have a month to just kind of reset and work on it. So, uh, don’t hate it. I look at numbers like that. Davis Thompson’s 55 to1 in this event with this field feels very weird to me. Did you guys get that sense that some of these these markets seem like they were I would say underinflated where guys numbers should have been better than they are? Uh I I think there’s still a little bit to be understood of of how Scotty Sheffller and having so many of those top guys trickle down to the secondary markets and the odds on the guys outside of the 10 that are on the Ryder Cup. trying to judge exactly how to handicap or forecast how the procore is going to go in a world where those guys aren’t necessarily a part of it. It the math can get a little tricky. Some guys get over inflated, some guys get underinflated knowing that Scotty is still, you know, the secretariat racehorse that’s out there um you know changing math on all the markets. Yeah, I’m I’m not the market expert that you guys are, so I defer to you guys. But uh plenty of stuff that I found. I was happy with the Matt Cooer top 20 number that I found. There’s plenty plenty of little nuggets for you if you’re looking to search for it.