Pat Mayo and Alex Blickle preview the course and run through the odds while making their Procore Championship 2025 Picks, Bets, DraftKings Selections. Then they move into the stacked field at Wentworth for their BMW PGA Championship Picks and Bets before moving to the Ryder Cup.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
1:47 Procore Championship
42:27 BMW PGA Championship
1:04:45 Bets Recap
1:07:28 Ryder Cup
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Windham’s game fits match play really. No, that is that is the hottest take of this show. Windham Clark should be on the RDER Cup team because he dominated TGL. Quote Alex Blickl. Sure. Go for it. Mayo experience. Mayo experience. Mayo experience. Mayo experience. Experience. Welcome to the Pato Experience presented by Underdog. back into golf cuz there are two huge tournaments this week. The Procore Championship in Napa, which is usually just a throwaway as the first leg of the swing season, but not this year cuz all of the US RDER Cup members minus Bryson are playing in the tournament. And then overseas, the even better tournament with a stronger field, the BMW PGA Championship from Wentworth, which has all of the European Rder Cup members, minus Seb Straka and a whole bunch of other really good players at the same time. So, I was going to take a golf hibernation for a bit, at least until the Ryder Cup, but no, we can’t do that. We got to make some bets here. Alex Blickl from ftn.com on the line to talk me through all of the bets, all the picks this week. But first, I want to get started. is you had a near miss in the Millie Maker, man. You were so close. I was so close. There there was a time yesterday I thought I was going to have it. Got nothing from Nico Collins, but it was a it was a fun ride and can’t complain about 50 50k. Yeah. 50 and that was seventh place, right? Mhm. What What Millie Maker was that? The $100. No, it was the $4,444. Uh which I only play when I have tickets for it, but I want a ticket at the Tour Championship. So, it makes all the sense in the world that we’re talking PGA today. So Tommy Fleetwood came through for you at the Tour Championship. He did. Yes. Well, which one do you want to start with? Do you want to start Procore or do you want to start BMW Championship? Because actually, you know what? Well, let’s start Procore because Scotty’s the favorite in the field. He’s plus 230. Get all the lines at coolb.com. If you’re in Canada, outside of Ontario, hit the description. You’ll find yourself a nice little bonus down there as well, plus some PME exclusives. So, he’s the overwhelming favorite. Russell Henley is second in this market at 13 to1. Justin Thomas is 17. So is Canlay. Sam Burns is under 20. Morawa is 20. Cam Young’s 22. Ben Griffin’s 24. Matt McNeely also 24. Then you got JJ Spawn. Those are all the players under 30 to1. It’s difficult for me to parse because this is a tournament I usually like to bet on. We’ve seen some gigantic underdogs win here, but this field is approximately 3,000 times stronger than it is in any other year it’s been played. So I don’t know what to do. Yeah, I I hey, I start in the same place that I always always start with course fit. We’ve got a pretty good model for this course. So I I obviously like it’s it’s not a onetoone comparison when you when you do suddenly have a much stronger field, but the same skill sets should still translate at least theoretically. So ball striking. Yeah, got got a lot of signal on driving distance here. Not a ton on driving accuracy, a little bit less than usual. Good signal on approach play. and then a shocking amount of signal on around the green play which I do think you can see like when you just look at the at the guys who have won and who have contended over the last few years there a lot of really good short game players so won here backtoback years Brendan I mean Brendan Steel won here backto-back years as well two years a did the win last year two years ago I think Kazy was last year I think what’s that sorry was Kazy last year Kazy was last year like 300 to1 or something silly like that. Yep. So, yeah, Fala was two years ago. So, yeah. Did I mean distance, not a ton of accuracy, good iron players, good putting, good short game for at least Homa and Thala. So, that actually does make some sense. But now Scotty’s playing. So, do do we even bet it? Yeah. I think the the one thing you can do is continue. And so like whenever Scotty’s in the field, it it hurts that like 30 to 50 range so much because Scott is just taking so much equity. And so essentially what that’s doing is when we’re when we’re betting golf, like we have to overcome this massive egg, right? Like there might be 25 35% juice sometimes in the market. So to overcome that, it’s really hard to do if one player is taking 25% of the win equity or whatever he’s getting. So, I like to go to the longer shots. And I think like it really leaning into course fit and leaning into volatility is kind of the the path that I I look forward to actually find some advantage in these markets. And and there is a guy at 150 to one that I like in uh in Benny on because he is distance and around the green play to the extreme. He is, but you also need him to make a putt at some point. you do uh which is why I will be taking him with uh with placements instead of just the pure outright. So Ben an 150 to1 eight places I can get behind that. I was looking at Jackson Kovven as well but unfortunately he’s 50 to1. Yeah he’s he’s like the the prototypical guy that three years ago would have been 150 to1 and we’d be so happy to bet him. But now there the the books are finally on top of the fact that these young guys are ready to win as soon as they get up here. Yeah. Yeah. So, I’m just looking at the the rabbit hole. Ron does such a good job of putting all this stuff together. For Silverado North, it’s a par 72, 71, and 138 yards. So, it’s a very short par 72. We see some par like East Lake was like 7,400 yards at a as a par 70. So, you can get to these. You have to smash the par fives here. That’s number one. The greens are a little bit smaller at 5,400 yards. The rough length is about average. It’s hard to hit fairways in general here. a lower driving accuracy percentage than you would notice, but it’s not super penal to miss the fairway. Hence, probably where driving distance comes in, right? Yeah. And also, like you mentioned, we have to our guys are going to have to really play the parfs. Well, I think this is one of the times where that around the green signal, it’s not saying, hey, you’re going to need your guys to save par on these difficult holes. It’s saying you’re actually going to need short game to get up and down for birdie uh when when birdie is the the score you need. So, uh, an interesting tidbit there because usually we don’t associate around the green play with these birdie fests, but I think you nailed, uh, the reason why that shows up here. Yeah. So, around the green, uh, on average very difficult at this course, which once again would be the signal that you do want these good around the green players. And it’s not even just it’s not even just around the green from like the the long grass from around the green, which isn’t even all that long. like trying to chip off the short grass like scrambling uh from short grass is extremely difficult at this course versus your regular events which I just found really really weird. So I I think you can go two ways here. You’ll want to go with the the types of guys that you were talking about distance you know above average to average irons great short games maybe they can make some putts or you can swing it back the other way because this was the site where Grio got his first win. always plays well here, which indicates to me that if you do have a massive fairway finder who does excel with his irons, if they can roll a hot putter, they can get in contention, which is why I was on Kovven in the first place. Yeah, that’s it’s it’s such a good point and it’s something that like is always the case and I I think Victor Havland is kind of the guy that I I mention every time when having the discussion like the the corset model is looking at everybody, right? And so it’s not when when the corset model says that around the green play is really predictive and really important, it doesn’t mean that you can’t find an outlier in the field who’s going to hit the ball so damn well that he’s not going to need that that around the green play the way most of the field will. Whether that’s Greo, whether it’s a Victor Havlin type, uh, you know, that’s that changes with every event of course and and you can find some guys like that here in this field like potentially Colin Morawa, some someone that you certainly have no um uh you’re certainly no stranger to betting him. So, he could be the guy here. I It’s funny because I have not bet Morawa in such a long time that you may maybe now is the time to get back in. I don’t know if I can necessarily pull the trigger. Him being back in California is nice though. How much do you put into splits like that because we have seen certain guys just dominate in California over the years and you’re like, “All right, it’s going to be a big year for this guy.” And then you never hear from them again. Yeah, I I don’t put a lot in to them. Um, which is interesting because like as a as a player myself, I know that I play a lot better in the Northeast than I do like down in Florida or something. But I think that most of that is tied to the actual courses themselves and how they test players. And so my my point isn’t that hey there’s something about, you know, California courses that he plays better. My my thing is that if there is, it’s going to be captured in the course fit analysis. So we don’t need to do any additional stuff beyond that. Uh and especially that’s true because when you get into those splits, you get into really small samples. So now you’re looking at something that, you know, if you’re looking at just California splits, maybe you’re not actually seeing California splits. Maybe you’re just seeing randomness and you’re being drawn away from what the course fit is telling you, which I think is just better analysis to begin with. I I was trying to think of some of the guys that do do this. I mean, it’s just some guys start play much better in January to March. Like Mark Wilson was like this. I think Mark Wilson has five PGA Tour wins and none of them have come after March 1st. Yeah. And well, and and something you’re alluding to there is like the schedule on the PGA tour is so seasonal and it it goes from one place to the next. So like I’ve made this point a lot with like um Bermuda splits for example, where the Florida swing, if a guy has an alignment issue with his putting, which happens all the time. And when you have an alignment issue, like you’re just kind of screwed until you fix that. You can have an alignment issue, go to the Florida swing, putt poorly for four straight weeks. Nothing to do with Bermuda. is because you’re struggling with your alignment. Eventually fix it and now your Bermuda putting splits are totally screwed for the next four years. Every single time someone looks at your Bermuda Bermuda splits for the next four years, you’re going to say, “Oh, this guy can’t put it putt on Bermuda.” But actually, it’s just because you had one four-week stretch and the schedule is so seasonal in that way that now it it skews the results and and people are looking at bad data for the next four years. So, I I’m always really careful with that type of split and it comes down to just the sample size issue. What What was the name of this tournament before? It was the fries.com open. It’s the Procore now. What was it? The the Fortnet. That’s right. And it was the Safeway as well. Yep. I I keep trying to search for Andrew Putnham. I just feels like he’s never played this tournament before. Oh, I have it set to last six months. That’s why I was like, of course not. The Fortnet. Let’s see. Nothing really good for him there. Safeway. He makes the cut every maybe a good DraftKings play, but I was trying to think of the other type of player that I talked about who could be like a go-esque player. Irons putting around the green and just kind of hits a bunch of fairways. Putnham would be that guy for me. Although I do think that what you kind of pointed out the path of least resistance of around the green is the way you’d want to go. Hell, Cam Champ is one here. Yeah, I mean Champ certainly doesn’t have the around the green play, but he’s got the he’s got the distance and he can get hot with the putter. So, um, he he definitely can, uh, become that guy. And and also, like you mentioned, Greo, well, Greo could be this year’s Greo. Again, he’s, you know, he’s still that type of player. He’s still accurate off the tea, really good iron player, and a I think a much better putter than people give him credit for. Yeah, I’m trying to just fill out the model. I’m on the rabbit hole right now. If you go to betsgolf.com/mo, you get yourself 25% off. Highly recommend it. And additionally, get this, Blickl. The race for the Mayo Cup at fantasygolf championships.com is now open for the new year. I’m going to be giving away some stuff on the show. You’re going to want to have entries into that. There’s almost a hundred people in it so far. Top prize this year, one or sorry, 110,000, which is really nice. There’s 1.2 million guaranteed into the prize pool, which you know, of course, is always just so so nice. But listen to this. Here’s the breakdown of the Where are we at? My entries, notifications, home. I just want to see the payout. Show me the payouts. That’s That’s what I’m looking for here. Uh I think it’s the top 20. I’ll get five figures. That’s outstanding. That’s outstanding. I shout out to you. The The way you’ve grown that contest is absolutely spectacular. It’s so much fun to play in. Uh I’m in the Survivor this year as well that you’ve got going on for NFL. It’s It’s all awesome. I love it. See, I I like the Surv I like Survivor as well. And if you join, sir, you still have by the time you’re watching this, I don’t think that Monday Night Football has started yet. It’s the last chance that you have to get into the 4 for4 Survivor. It’s 50 bucks to play. You can multi-enter it and there’s 500K up top. The one thing that I don’t like about Survivor versus the oneandone is you can have [ __ ] 10 bad weeks in one and done. That’s fine. The guy who won last year won by a bunch. He forgot to submit an entry at Bayill. That’s hilarious. I didn’t even know that. Yeah, but like you can have bad weeks, you just need to have good weeks to go on top of it and it keeps you engaged. And if like you have a really good year in Survivor, you make it you come second. You win nothing. At least if you win second in the race for the Mayo Cup, you win $75,000. Yeah, it’s it’s such a good tournament. Uh it I know Tambo talks about like gifting it to people. I got my dad in. I got my uncle in. It was it was a lot of fun. Yeah. Fantasyolfchampionships.com. fanolfchamps.com is a URL that it will also work or you can just hit the description, get in it now. I give my my dad an entry into it every year for Christmas. I know that Tambo does. If you don’t know what to get your dad for Christmas, just buy him this entry right now and then give it to him that day. It’s it’s perfect. And then you guys actually have something to talk about every single week anyway. You’d be shocked at how little my father and I have to talk about. Whatever works. Yeah. So, strokes gained approach. What do you think the good time frame is? I’m just adding in some stuff here to try to create a quick model on the rabbit hole. I put in distance. I put in off the tea. I put in around the green. I did those past three months, past three months, past four months. What would you take for strokes gained approach? Would you want to shrink it down to a super small sample and then cut that in half and then add in a really long sample to go with it? Yeah, there’s some there’s some subjectivity to this type of question because I think an underrated like part of this answer is that it depends on the type of year. like these guys haven’t played as much and especially once you get to like the RDER Cup, they’re gonna have essentially one round recently. So, I I think I at this point I’m I’m more interested in their long-term numbers than their recent numbers because I don’t necessarily think the recent numbers still apply. So, uh I I want the the really long-term great iron players, the you know, obviously Morawa is one of them. I think Avatilla has become one of them. Rico Hoey going down the board. So, uh, I I want the guys who aren’t just hot recently, but have shown us year after year, this is the strength of their game. So, I put in the last two months and put eight months in. So, basically encompassing the entire year, which I do I mean, it’s not the longest of sample sizes, but I feel like it’s it’s plenty generous here. We’re talking about 70 to 85 rounds for some guys. And and to that point, like if if a long-term iron a long-term great iron player has struggled for eight months, that doesn’t necessar like there’s no reason for us to believe that this is the week that he’s going to figure it out. We can still say, yeah, sometime in the next year, I think he’ll figure it out, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to figure out this week. So, I I like that uh that split that you just created. Well, I I know that you uh you’ve done really well on underdog for PGA. I was just looking at it and the overall and maybe this differs because the quality of player has gone up at this field so far, but the 5-year average at this course of 48% driving accuracy. That ain’t good. No, it is not. Um I I can also bring up some some like birdie and stuff stats here for for underdog, but yeah, I we can definitely attack that, but I to your point like I think you you have to be aware of just how much better the field is this year. And so maybe the move is to keep that in mind, see the round one data and then see if the if the lines have have uh properly adjusted and if they haven’t then you just hammer. That could be the move. I I just wonder that when they open up those fairways hit prices or even take lower fairways on some guys but higher greens and regulation because it’s super easy to it’s almost like the Sony open in that way where not a lot of guys actually hit the fairway but everyone is hitting greens and regulation. What is the green and regulation percentage here? Let’s see. approach play rabbit hole so easy to use fairway a green regulation from the fairway 81% 60% from the rough so the green regulation percentage overall is 69% so that’s it’s higher than tour average yep and you would expect that probably to go up with the better players this year too definitely going for the green percentage is about just over 50% G but so this kind of hearkens back to exactly what you said earlier with the around the green play being the scoring being scoring induced for par fives. The going for the green hit percentage on par fives on the four of them at Silverado has a 5-year average of only 15%. That’s crazy. So yeah, you got got to get it up and down. So Scotty’s going to win this tournament by a hundred strokes, just like every other tournament. Yeah. Like would you like have you started to think about dabbling in the non-Scotty market? I haven’t. Um, but I I think the main reason I haven’t is because I I live in a place where I have multiple books with eachway options. I think if I if I was in a state where I had to bet pure outrights only, there’s a good chance I I would have started to to dip into that non-cotty market. The only thing is like I haven’t checked every single event, but the couple events that I have checked, the juice has been even higher in that market. And I don’t I don’t like that. It depends on the site. It seems like they’ve kind of caught up to it, but for a while, FanDuel was basically offering the same odds on every player in that market just without Scotty Sheffller. That’s funny. So, you can get away with it sometimes. I think it’s always helpful to check because if the number is like two points different on a player and you get to eliminate the favorite in the field, then I would do it. But, I mean, I I actually got back some nice cash from hitting Tommy Fleetwood at the Tour Championship and a lot of people were like, “Oh, yeah, just bet it without Scotty.” It’s like I don’t want to bet it with I don’t want to bet Fleetwood ate the one or something without Scotty. Just let me bet. Let him if he wins, he wins. He finally did win. It was nice to see. And I think that’s an important part of the equation, too, is like understanding the player that you’re betting on when he plays like if he has his agame, is his agame good enough to beat Scotty or do you need or like is his agame just going to be beaten by Scotty’s C game? So, that’s a really important part to to think through and obviously when Tommy has it, he can beat anyone in the world. Uh just in terms of creating this model, I’m throwing in putting short and long term as well. But just taking a look at is there any like specific stats in general that you would look at of maybe proximity ranges, birdies are better, bogey avoidance, anything like that to throw in? I don’t think so. I like to keep my models really simple. And I I think like one of the things that I’ve stressed especially in the DFS side of things and and this isn’t as true for for betting, but I I really take the side of like I I want to be upfront and honest with myself about how hard it is to predict golf. And I think it’s really easy to fall into the trap of like trying to predict that which we can’t predict. And then you just get in a situation where you’re overconfident about things. and I want to lean into the variance and and use the variance of golf to my advantage instead of trying to eliminate it just because as human beings we’re uncomfortable with uncertainty. So that’s the the approach I take. I like to keep a very simple uh model and I do that with the with the corset model and then um you know I I separate uh driving into stroke scan driving distance and strokes driving accuracy and to me that that’s been really successful and and I try not to go too nitty-gritty beyond that. All right, so I’m going to fire this one up here. I built it as we were talking Procore. I’m going to put this in the newsletter so you can sub to that for free down in the description. I’ll probably post it on Twitter as well once I go through it. Procore Mayo V1. I got distance off the tea around the green two two with approach two with putting just different lengths of time and weight it a little bit differently. I’m going to save and generate this model. You can access this on the rabbit hole as well if you just go down to view expert ranking. That’s a very loose definition of the word expert, but here I am. I got mine in there. PGA tout. So John has his in there as well. I’m sure that more will populate. Do you find that DFS is easier or harder on DraftKings for golf while football is going on? Do you find it’s only the hard hardcore players who know what they’re doing or playing or are other people getting into it because they have extra money. They’re around for NFL. It’s like, “Hey, let me throw in a PGA one.” That’s a great question. I haven’t thought about that much. I think I think it’s probably a little bit tougher depending on your strategy. Like I take a very contrarian strategy. I’m always trying to leverage the field and I think it’s a little bit harder this time of year to project ownership than when there are, you know, six or seven shows around the industry that that are are kind of driving ownership. Uh so I think that part of it is is tougher. There’s there’s a lot there just fewer indicators of who people are actually playing and I think to me like that’s more important than what’s the quality of the competition. Well, how about this? that the fact that we’ve both said driving distance on this show, Cam Champ’s gonna be overowned. Yeah, probably. But he’ll be overowned at like what, 5% when he should be 3% or something like that, maybe. Well, let’s see here. The the top driving distance players in the field over the past four months uh in order and they’re all sub. Cameron Young is the only highric player who’s up here in this. So, Yesper Spencson, Cam Champ, Keith Mitchell, Celinda. Oh, my boy Celinda playing him for sure. Although he ranks 122nd of 156 players in this model. Ben Anne, your guy, Joseph Braramlet, Tim Widing, Cam Young. Widing is interesting. Didn’t he was it Spencen or Widing who won the Irish Open like last year? Oh, I’m not sure. I I can’t Tim Widing. Tim Widing was the guy who won backtoback on Corn Ferry. It must have been Spenson then. Or was it the other? It was some sweet who hits the B. No, it was Vince Norman who won the Irish like two years ago. Another long-hitting Swedish guy. Jordan Gordon Sergeant is here. Trevor Conn, Taylor Moore, Jackson Suber, Graaserman’s interesting actually. Very very interesting. One one of the uh largest differences between the course fit projection and our just like baseline projections this week. So he’s he’s very much on my radar. How how does that work? Like how do we get the course fit uh projection versus the baseline? Yeah. So the the baseline projections uh it’s actually a really cool process. So what we do is like we separate the categories in terms of how much we want to weight recent form. So like I so many people will take you know oh this is his form over the last 12 events or last 12 rounds last 24 last 50 whatever and they’re using the same weight for the last 12 versus the last 50 for example to project their putting and their driving. And what we have found is that’s not very that’s that’s not as good as you can do. Whereas like putting, you have to go back 44 rounds to get any predictive value whatsoever for putting, but driving accuracy, you can go back eight rounds and start to get some predictive value. So, we want to be viewing um we want to be viewing like the different categories, the different skill sets in golf differently when we weigh recent form versus long-term form. And so we we take that in, we estimate the driving, we estimate the approach play, we estimate the around the green plane, we estimate the putting independent of the course first. That gives us a profile for the player and that gives us a baseline expected strokes gained. And then we take that profile, we apply it to the course fit model which says like for example um this week we have distance being 30% more predicted than usual. So if you take two players and one of them is half a stroke better in driving distance than the other, that half a stroke gets multiplied by 1.3 since it’s 30% more predictive and that 0.5 stroke advantage becomes a 65 stroke advantage. So then you have a baseline expected strokes gained and a course expected strokes gained. We blend those together to get our actual expected strokes gains that we then run through the simulations. Oh, so that’s pretty interesting. So Grasman would rate out well at this course then. Yeah, that’s is that’s exactly what it’s saying. So like if if you put Graserman verse um Thor Bjorn Olison on a neutral course, we have them projected almost exactly the same. 72 for Olison, 74 expected strokes gained for Grasman. You put them on this course, Olison goes to 79. Graser goes all the way up to 1.27. So now on this course, we say, “Okay, Graserman is a much better course fit. We’re going to project him a lot better.” uh whereas they’re probably like the same quality of player. So looking at it right now, I’m looking back at the past five years and the players that have played the best at Silverado. Figial Homa, Cooer, Hogi, Spawn are the top five. So Spawn is really the only Rder Cup regular from the USA team that plays this course over and over. Yeah, that’s a really good point. I don’t know how much to weigh like this is another one of those really interesting just like general golf conversations where there was definitely a point in time where experience on a golf course and there are certainly still courses like Augusta where experience on a golf course is predictive success. I think we’ve gotten to a point where there’s so much data and and these guys do such a good job of mapping out a strategy for each course that I just don’t think it matters the way it used to. And that is obviously part of why these young guys get to the PGA Tour now and they’re just ready to win. It’s because they’re as prepared for the course as guys who have played it for eight years. Like that that local course knowledge just doesn’t mean what it used to. So one of the other weird things about this tournament as well, Xander is actually not playing. So I was I was incorrect about all of the guys besides Bryson playing. We don’t have Xander here as well, but I think it was last year with Xander. He came and played this tournament. It was either last year or the year before. And one of the things that the top players, like every once in a while, you’d get like a pretty big player playing in this tournament. And all of a sudden, they just wouldn’t do very well. And you try to figure out why. This was always kind of known for the top players as a place that their wife wanted them to play. and they would just basically treat it as, hey, I’m gonna play in this tournament, but I’m actually on a wine weekend holiday in Napa with my wife. That’s a really good point. And and I think an important point there is like it doesn’t mean that once they get inside the ropes, they don’t care about how they play. What it means is instead of putting all that time in Monday through Wednesday to come up with their plan to iron in their game, they’re off touring wine country with their wife. So it it does make some sense. So with that, let’s I guess the fundamental question comes down to there’s three levels to this. One, what do you do with Scotty? Two, what do you do with the RDER Cup guys who are the next 10 best players in this tournament? And if we factor in those things, would you make basically bet the don’t pass line against all these guys and be like, okay, they’re sucking up all the win equity, but maybe like they’re there for team camaraderie weekend for the RDER Cup, and maybe they can get got this week if there’s a week to get them. I wouldn’t go that far because I think they’re they’re here for a reason. Like they’re they’re all very motivated for the RDER Cup. I don’t think it matters that they care about the state of their game for the RDER Cup instead of caring about it for this week. And and I think that they will also like just the competitive nature. Like I’m sure I’m sure we will hear Scotty Sheffller say I’m here to win this tournament, not just to prepare for uh for the RDER Cup. So um I wouldn’t go so far as to say they can get God for that reason. But I also think that like, you know, if if they start slow or if they’re in contention, they’re they still won’t be as focused on this week particularly um as they usually are because they’re here to make sure their game is as prepared as possible for two weeks from now. Like if Justin Thomas isn’t in contention, like he makes the cut and he’s like T63. He’s having a wine weekend. Yeah. And I I think like he’ll he’ll still be grinding to to try and find something that he can lean on. Sure. But but it’s not but it’s not the same, right? It’s definitely not the same. It it’s 100% not the same. Whereas guys, I I you know what I think? I think it’s probably more applicable to DFS where like if you have a guy who just squeaks through the cut and is in 50th like I want I want the player who knows that going from 50th to 20th could be really important for his status next year. However, I will also put in the qualifier there that if if that’s the case, he’s there because he hasn’t played well when he’s really really wanted to before. So motivation is is also like one of those traps where yeah, guys want to play well all the time. If motivation was predictive of success for everybody, then no one would ever be battling for their card because they’d all play well when they need to. Exactly. And what we’re talking about is absolutely unquantifiable. You just cannot know. Like, oh, maybe Scotty’s the one who decides to go out and have a good hang and Harris English is super locked in. You have no way to know. Agree completely. So, here’s what the rankings told me. So, the power stat rankings that I did, Scotty, of course, is number one. If you make a if you make a model, this has been kind of my rule of thumb over the past two years that doesn’t have Scotty at number one, you might want to try to start over again. Yeah. And if you have guys who are like at $5,600 third in your rankings, you might want to start over again. And usually, it’s not that you’re doing the wrong thing, it’s that you just have too small of a sample size. You just need more long-term form or you need to be a little bit less picky about how granular you’re getting with your data. See, I don’t mind that from time to time if one of these cheap guys pops up because at least it indicates to me that they’re do they’re doing something well currently that I am looking for. That doesn’t mean they’re reliable at all, but at least I’m trying to ride the wave. Yeah. And to that point, like it can be directionally correct that, hey, this guy who’s $5,700, like he should be uh or he should project a lot better than everyone else in his range. It just means okay, but I probably need to tone down what is putting him there. And and so he goes from third in my model to I don’t know 17th. Like that would still be a really good play at that cheap of a price tag. Uh and then that can also then like it it’s it’s directionally still important for you to see that that guy’s projecting really well, but now you know, okay, if I dial that back now, the rest of the guys here are probably a little bit more accurate. So the difference between the guy who’s ranked fifth and 10th means a little bit more to me. That’s really interesting. I never thought about that as a way like finding the outliers near a top of a model as a way to essentially back test it in real time. Yeah, 100%. Like that I think that’s really well said and it’s and part of that too is because when we are betting when we’re playing DFS, it’s like the the goal with projection models, we we always think about it as like well I want I want it to be as accurate as possible. And I think a more important thing is when your model is telling you something different than what the market is telling you, that’s when you need maximum predictability. You need your outliers to be outliers for a good reason and not because there’s a bit of a flaw in in your process. And so judging the outliers is a fantastic way of judging the the viability of them. So here’s the top 10. Sheffller, Griffin, Henley, Thomas, Jackson Kovven, JJ Spawn, Mav McNeely, Patrick Canway. The the outlier for me is Cameron Champ at 7,400 bucks. Then Cam Young, Harris English, oh Chairman Mau, 7,300 bucks. Then you have Mark Hubard, who actually has some really nice course history here at 13. Woodland, M. Meisner, Sam Burns, Hoey Fishburn, Web S Web Simpson. Good lord. Maybe I do need to maybe I’ve back tested this in real time. I need to figure something out. And then Ameliano Grio at 20 to1. Then yes. But me having overweighted distance and off the tea is giving me certain guys like a certain type of player. I I get that web Simpson outlier all the time in my stuff whenever around the green pops like it does this week. So he’s he’s probably up there for me too. But yeah, I mean I have I’m looking at at the top 10 for our expected strokes gained right now and we might have like eight of the same top 10. So, uh, that that seems like a really solid start. And Web Simpson probably not one of them. He’s not one of them. Go. Oh, Ash is number 23. I I like how he’s been playing. It just I feel like it’s so hard for him to put together four rounds. He’s 14 for us. Okay. Yeah. He’s a He’s a fun one to root for because I’ i’ve personally played so many tournaments against him. Oh, really? He He is He is easily my favorite player on tour. It’s not even close. He’s so fun to watch. He is. And I So I can’t remember it was a It was a tournament in the like the most northeastern part of North Carolina that you can possibly get. Really cool part of the country that I didn’t even know you could get that far northeast in North Carolina. And they had this like long drive competition. And he and I were in the in the final like five. And it was hilarious because there were three guys who were like, I don’t know, 6’4, look like they could be linebackers or tight ends. And then there were me and Ash Batia. I’m 5’7. He’s a stick. Like this is like why are these two in this in the final five? It was It was fun to see. We did not win. So, one of the other guys hitting the ball 380. So, yeah, his driving accuracy is trending back upwards. That’s nice to see over the past 81 rounds cuz in my mind he’s number one in total driving too which might actually be one of the better stats here. Yeah, definitely. I mean I personally like I think strokes getting off the tea is better than total driving but it’s the same concept. Well, it’s funny that he’s first in total driving, but he’s barely above average in strokes gained off the tea. Yeah, it’s it’s because I think total driving overemphasizes accuracy and it it’s also like I think you and I have had this conversation before, but I I’m not a fan of percentage of fairways hit as a as a measure of driving accuracy. I don’t think that’s actually what it’s capturing. And like obviously when you’re looking at a stat for a skill, like you want that stat to actually show the skill and percentage of fairways hit shows an inverse relation to how far you can hit the ball more than it shows your ability to hit the ball where you want it. So, I I think that’s probably uh the biggest reason why uh Total Driving doesn’t quite capture it, but Total Driving still gets like the best drivers. They they’re still always up there because they’re both accurate and long. His off the tea has been actually very good over the past little bit. Lost a little bit at the Tour Championship. His around the green has been good. Weirdly enough, it’s his putter that’s been letting him down, which frankly I’m willing to buy on a dip on A’s putter. Me, too. We we still have him projected to gain strokes with this putter. Yeah. And he’s lost in one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight of his past 10 tournaments on the greens. Yeah, that won’t last. All right, so let’s go with that. Maybe Oxy. Where are He’s probably like 30 to1. He is [ __ ] 30 to1. Of course he is. I don’t know if I like that. I don’t think I like that, but I I like him. If he’s lowowned, I’ll be playing him. All right, so what are we thinking for bets here? You like Ben Anan. I I Cool Bet has a Grazerman 66. I don’t hate that. I like that. Other than that, they’re not really giving us much value. Go’s 100 to one. Maybe just roll out Go 100 to one with eight places and call it a week. Yeah, I don’t mind that at all. And and I also like I really really really don’t mind the idea of having a small card all long shots. You’re almost definitely going to lose all of your bets, but you’re not going to lose a lot, so who cares? I suppose that’s true. Maybe I’ll just Ox is 33. Here I’ll talk to Coolback. Get him boosted up. Get him to like 40 to1 or something. Then we’re in business. When he loses by 12 to Scotty. Yeah, I I’d start to think about it at 40. I would definitely be in if you got it to 50. Yeah, I I there’s no chance that gets to 50. I I thought maybe you had some real special connections. I I I wish I wish I had those special. They they Well, they they accept all my boosts. Like, well, Patton never wins, so this is perfect. But boost up whoever he likes. That’s fine. Uh I I I actually hit the Fleetwood once. They were like, “All right, you calm down, pal. Trying to figure this out.” But um I’m looking at some other sites now to see if there’s any other larger numbers. There just doesn’t seem to be at the moment. It feels like there they know that the only people that as Jeff always called it, it’s like the people who bet the Masters futures like in November, it’s like they’re looking for crack and they’re like, “Hey, here’s some crack. Would you like to smoke it?” People are like, “Yeah, yeah, get me get me in on these golfs right now.” Yeah, that’s a really good point. Uh, here’s another guy I think is worth mentioning. I don’t know what what you can get him at, but Luke Clinton very much fits the bill of someone who theoretically could hit the ball so well and get hot with the putter so that his short game uh weakness does not matter. We haven’t seen the putter spike recently, but we know that it’s capable of spiking and and obviously the ball striking is there quite a bit. So, uh, what’s he at? Mr. swing season. I’m seeing him at 100 to1. He’s the same as like Nico. Would you consider this an easy course? Yeah. So, Nico at easy courses despite being sort of the antithesis of the player that we just talked about. Yeah. I’m more interested in Clanton there. Yeah. So, Clanton at 100, go’s 100, Nico’s 100, Gim Reaper’s 100. It’s funny to see all these guys ahead of Ben Anne, weirdly enough. I guess Ben had a bad year, didn’t he? He had a really bad year. He had a really interesting year because when he was playing well, he was doing it with ball striking and better putting, but around the green play, which like historically even when he has not been that good, he’s been one of the best around the green players in the world. He’s had one of the best short games in the world. So, it was weird to see that like that was the part of his game that was failing him. And then as the year went on, he got the around the green play back. His short game was money for the rest of the season and everything else kind of fell apart. So, I I think that like I I actually like seeing that kind of trend more than he’s struggling with one aspect, he can’t figure it out, he’s not going to figure it out because now we know, okay, he’s had success in in all the areas he he needs to have success in. He just has to finally put it all together. And I think that’s easier to do than finding something in a in a category that you have never been able to find success in. So, shortlisted right now, we have none of the RDER Cup guys. That’s probably a mistake in a field that features all of the best players from the RDER Cup. So, I I don’t think it is because I I think we can like phrase it this way. Are books more likely to hang a bad number, a wrong number for a guy at 100 to one who isn’t really relevant, hasn’t been playing a bunch lately, or are they more likely to make a mistake on guys that we’ve seen play the last few weeks and are going to get the most attention this week because they’re playing in the RDER Cup? Like, of course, they’re less likely to make a mistake on a Ryder Cup guy than someone down the board. Of the RDER Cup guys, I know you said I’m seeing a 25 on Morau at Kbat. Actually, that doesn’t seem bad. It’s not awful. I don’t think I’d play it. Thomas at 16. I think Thomas or Kantlay would probably be my favorites at these numbers, but I just don’t want to bet them at 16 or 18 to1. Yeah, I agree. Where are uh where are Burns and Cam Young? Uh Cam Young is 25 to1. Burns is 18 to1. Definitely wouldn’t touch Burns. I think I would bet Cam Young at 25 before I bet Morawa. All right, so we’ll throw Cam Young on the short list. So here’s what I got shortlisted right now. Graaserman, Benan, Grio, Clanton, Kovven, Oshay, Cam Young. I like it. So I I’ll whittle that down. I’ll release the plays in the newsletter or I’ll tweet them out, do whatever with them. Uh and we’ll get to the bottom of this and maybe something will pop up during the course of the week. Maybe I’ll bet Cam Champ, see if they they can get a huge number on him. Who knows? For over a century, Johnny Walker has shared its bold spirit with the game of golf. Now crafted with Devo Golf, Johnny Walker introduces the Johnny Walker Blue Label inspired Sunday golf bag. Elevating the game with sleek design, blue label hues, and refined gold accents. Celebrate your hole-in-one with a premium Sunday bag crafted by Devo Golf. Submit proof of your achievement to johnnywalker.com/blue-in-1. Please drink responsibly. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/patmo and get on your way to being your best self. Sometimes we turn to some funny places for support. But not everyone’s a therapist. Not everyone is the one. Find your right match with better help. What you need to do is actually talk to a quality therapist and Better Help the Therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the United States. It’s also completely online. You can pause your subscription whenever you need to and switch therapists anytime at no extra cost. As the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of expertise. Find the one with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com/patmo. That’s betterhelp. hlp.com/patmo. I really want to talk about the BMW PGA Championship from Wentworth. If you’re thinking, hey, this course is in England. It doesn’t really look or feel like any of the link style courses that we’re used to. is a treeinfested parkland style course. Yeah, it is. It It’s It’s also a fantastic field, a fantastic event. The only thing I don’t understand is why it’s called the BMW PGA Championship. I think it’s because the BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. It’s to differentiate it. I guess why’ they go with PGA instead of like DP World Tour Championship? That I don’t know. But there’s also the BM like there’s a BMW International Championship as a part of the DP World Tour schedule that takes place in Germany. So maybe it’s a differentiation between that and the one in the States. Could be. I It confuses me, but it’s a great event. It is. And we’ve seen Here’s the problem. Like when you just take a look at who has done well at this course over the years and you take a look at the past champions, it’s just a random spattering of guys like Ryan Fox, Shane Lowry, Billy Horchel, Tierrell Hatton, Danny Willlet, Malinari, Alex Norin, Chris Wood, Ben Anne, Rory Mroy. Only thing that kind of draws me to this and I mean I don’t even know how like Willlet or Hatton were playing that year or even Fox but a lot of accuracy based players. Yeah. I I’d also say like it’s it’s always a strong field and a much stronger field than most DP World Tour events. And a a difficulty there is if all you’re doing is looking at guys who win and guys who are in contention, like I don’t think you’re going to see separation there because of certain skill sets. I think you’re seeing that separation just because they’re that much better than the other guys in the field. So it’s it’s hard to do analysis that way. But I als like like I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing because it’s the same this year that like there’s still a group of guys in this tournament that are much better than the rest of the field. Yes. And this field is stronger than the field in Napa. So it has a bunch of live guys. It has the European Rder Cup guys and then just random dudes like Seiwoo and Hideki are playing in this tournament and your run-of-the-mill uh guys from like, okay, I’m going to get sucked into this because this is what I do. But Dean Burmester 66 to1. It’s it’s very doable. This is a little off topic, but if you combined these fields, it’s a major championship field. Oh yeah, 100%. Like the the here are the live guys that are playing. Rahm is playing, Hatton is playing, Neman is playing, Reed is playing, Burmese is playing, I think, and McKibben. I bet McKibben at 80 to1 with eight places. The European Rder Cup team is is treating this like a tuneup as well. So, it’s I I’m actually a little bit surprised that Bryson didn’t choose to go play there in since the PGA tour wouldn’t let him play in Napa. See, this is exactly what I’m And Brooks is playing as well, but he doesn’t matter at this point in time. So, I I am in a 100% agreement with you. I do not understand why Bryson isn’t playing in this tournament. Like, as a real FU, like this is the better field. You get Bryson in it, then it really has some like this has juice to begin with because the field is so strong, but it basically is just missing Bryson in terms of like people paying attention to it. Yeah. And I I don’t know if he’s still in contract negotiations. Maybe he’s already figured it out, but like I would think that this I would think that Bryson would view this as like a really good opportunity to show like, hey, watch. if I go play in this event while there’s a PJ tour event, it’s as close as the DP World Tour will ever get to having better ratings on on the Golf Channel and stuff like that. So, I think it’s a missed opportunity for him, but I also think that, you know, Bryson is really good at at figuring out how to prepare for big events. We’ve seen him play so well in the majors, even when the lift schedule isn’t conducive to doing so. So, uh I also think it’s it’s fine to just trust Bryson to to get himself ready for the Ryder Cup in whatever way he thinks is best. Sure. It just seems funny that like he he said he would have played in Napa if he had the opportunity. I do enjoy the people who are like, “Oh yeah, they should let Bryson play.” That sounds like a terrible idea for the PGA tour. Yeah, I don’t know how they would have they would have uh I don’t think they could have done so without opening themselves up to like really bad outcomes legally. So you want to know what the worst outcome would have been? Bryson wins. Yeah, that’s the And it’s a it would have been a Napa would have been a great course for Bryson. It really would have. We’re talking about how how great distance is there. He just goes and bullies the thing to death. Yeah. So, here’s the odds board. Rom and Rory are the co-favorites, which seems kind of ludicrous, doesn’t it? Like, shouldn’t Rory be a massive favorite over Rom? I think so. He’s so much fun. That Eagle putt, by the way, was like such an awesome preview for the NFL slate. I don’t know if you saw it live, but like I was watching it live. I was at the gym watching it at it was like 40 minutes before week one kickoff. It’s like, “All right, I’m going to get myself home. I’m going to take a shower. I’m going to be ready for for kickoff.” And I’m I’m on the treadmill and I’m watching. I was like, “Holy [ __ ] he might make this.” And just like my my ear pod just like exploded with the roars when Rory made the putt. It was awesome. And that hour is the slowest hour of the entire week. And in week one, it’s even it might be the slowest hour of the entire year. So to have that Rory uh playoff was was fantastic. I loved that. Yeah. and he ended up winning. He wins the Irish Open. This is actually a great event for pregaming NFL on Sunday. It really is. It’s fantastic. So Rah and Rory both six to1. Fleetwood is 10 to1. Then it drops to Ludvig at 18. Those are the four guys under 20. Then you got Fitz, Hatton, Havland, Neman all at 20 to1. Now this will vary based on the book that you go look at. Some guys will be higher, some guys will be lower. Bobby Mack is 25 to1. Then you got Lowry at 28. That’s the group below 30. Then it’s Connors. I didn’t even see Connors was playing this. Okay, this might be the ultimate Cory Connors course, by the way. I I will take your word for it. I don’t I don’t have the corset model for Wentworth, but it it seems like it’s right up his path. It It seems like an accuracy position type golf course. Keep your ball in play, hit a lot of greens, and and yeah, he’s he’s an absolute technician. So, I think I agree. Yeah, it’s funny like and this this would make the most sense in the world like oh yeah, he’s gonna go get a big win in Europe. Also very true. And no one will give him any credit for it or anything like that. That just it would work out too perfectly for Cory Connors. Marco Pen is 33. Norin’s 33. Rye is 33. Then Patrick Re Patrick Reed has three straight top three finishes at this course. He’s 40 to1 to win this week. He’s the same as Rasmus Hoygard, Harry Hall, Rose Matsyama is 50. That’s the same as Seiw. And this is Billy Horchel’s first start since coming off injury, isn’t it? He won here three years ago. Yeah, I believe so. Let’s see. I don’t think he’s played since. He hasn’t played since the Heritage. Yeah. Then you got Near Guard Peterson, the other Hoy Guard, Matt Wallace, Burmese at 66. As mentioned before, Michael Kim is playing in the field. He’s 80 to1. Adam Scott’s over here. They’re like this field [ __ ] this field [ __ ] is what it does. It’s awesome. It’s so good. Min woo is 100 to one. I think that sounds right. Yeah, I I guess so. So, what do you think? Like you see I’m trying to find like the outlier here. So, the real outlier Chris Wood won in 2016. Another high accuracy player. Manisero won in 2013. He’s like 125 to1 this week. Yeah, I I think um Justin Rose has my attention. I mentioned like one of the things that I spent a lot of time doing is is projecting volatility for players and really embracing variance. Nobody encapsulates that more than Justin Rose. Rose is either in contention or he sticks. There’s never an in between for him. So, he’s he’s going to be in contention more than his number. Uh because nine times out of ten a player’s number is is based on like their overall talent level and just a measure of how good the player is. And when you compare how good Rose is to guys in his price range, he contends and wins more than those guys. So I I’ve I’ve bet Rose so many times and it works out quite a bit. I really wish Hideki could drive the ball. It’d be very helpful for his overall success. I feel like the rest of his game is so good and all he has to do is set up himself to take advantage of of those skill sets and and he’s not doing it right now. No, he was 17th at the St. Jude and that was with losing strokes. He’s lost strokes off the tea in four straight and eight of nine. Yeah, it’s a killer. And it’ be one thing if he was just like losing a ton of distance, but he was still hitting a bunch of fairways, which was kind of his jam for the past two years. Now he can’t hit fairways, right? And when you’re as good as he is with your irons, like you need to be giving yourself as many opportunities as possible. And when you’re missing fairways and you’re chopping out or you’re, you know, you’re you’re just hoping to get into the green side bunker, like, yeah, his short game is also elite, so he can still make pars, but you’re taking birdie opportunities away every single time you you miss the fairway. Whereas most players like they don’t have they don’t have a birdie opportunity every single time they’re in the fairway like he does. whether it’s a six iron, eight iron, he’s capable of hitting it close and and so he needs to be driving the ball better than he has. So if we’re trying to find some outliers, I mean, guess Roger Sloan’s not playing in the field, so that’s going to be a little bit tough. Rye would have my attention here, but he’s playing like garbage, so that’s probably not great. Trying to find some accuracy guys who actually mix distance in with it, but most of them are all the American dudes who are playing. I’m not seeing anyone. Hatton rates out the highest of the bunch, and then it’s Connors. Those are the two guys. Yeah, I’m gonna bet Cory Connors. I like it. I like it a lot. Uh if if you want a longer name, uh you’re just saying like accuracy from guys who also have the distance, Jonathan Vegas is down there. Oh god, I bet I I bet Vegas last week did didn’t work out so well. No, it didn’t. But he’s another one of those like I think this is another thing that that uh that not enough people do is if you’re betting a really high volatility player and he doesn’t do well that shouldn’t take you off of him. That’s reinforcing how volatile he is. If volatility is part of your thesis for playing him, go back to him right away because you know that for him like recent form doesn’t matter as much as it does other players because that’s who he is. He either has it or doesn’t and he can go back and forth all the time. Oh, listen. G giving up on guys a week before they win is sort of like my mo, but the reason I ended up betting Vegas last week is that he was like 80 to1 in that Irish open field. It’s like, well, he’s it’s at the K club that’s in a pure driving distance course. It seems funny to me that it it that this is a guy who was, you know, almost the first round. I think he was the first round leader at the PGA Championship. A guy with multiple PGA Tour victories. not in the not so like recent past y that he’s going over and playing against listen like the Euro fields can be good but like I like some of these guys as much as the next guy but you know I’m look when I’m scrolling through the odds and I’m seeing that like how is ahead of Vegas like I know howong could be good is a better player but in this field he’s like not good right I will say I I’m I’m looking at his data now I’m I’m a little concerned that Vegas might be hurt because his speed is gone. Like early in the year, he’s gaining between 13 and 28 yards um per drive on the field. He gained seven at the Travelers, seven yards, lost two yards at the Scottish, gained 999, lost two at the BMW, and lost 10 yards to the field at the Irish Open. Well, let’s uh take a look at this. Let’s see the club head speed. Would you prefer ball speed or club head speed? Ball speed. Ball speed. So, let’s go to ball speed. Brandon Matthews, Cam Champ, Bryson, Gordon. Should we look at Gordon Sergeant for Napa? Or does he just suck too much? I don’t think the rest of his game is ready. All right. He’s Cam Champ without the potential to get hot with the putter and irons. Uh, let’s see. Hoygard, Hoygard, Norgard are all very much up there. Minw is up there, Rahm and Neman and Rory, all the guys that you would expect because you would you feel like you would expect to see Vegas up here in this number, right? Yeah. Vegas has been most of his year, most of his career. Vegas is 37th over the past three months, which isn’t horrible, but that puts him in the range of Pearson Culie, Celinda, Taylor Pendrith, Johnny Kefir, MJ Duffy, Nick Dunlap, like that level of player. And that guy from the European tour, Jacqu Kersick from South Africa. So he was 37th. If we just go past, let’s just shrink it down. Let’s let’s see here. See what’s happening to him. Vegas over the past two months. Instead of looking at the ranks, can you also look at the actual speed? Uh, I can’t. No. Okay. I mean, I’m sure that there’s probably a way to do that. Let’s see. Average ball speed. Uh, yes, I can. 180. Okay. Is that good or bad? I mean, obviously it’s good. It’s Is that the last three months? That Yeah, that’s the last three months. Okay, let’s let’s look at the last like Can you look at the last month? Yeah, I’ll look at the last month with Vegas. Yeah, it still says 180 for right now. Okay, let’s see. See, maybe maybe it’s not quite as Well, okay. We actually need to We need Can you go wider? Can you get like the last year? Yeah. Last 18 months he’s at 182. So he’s down 2 miles per hour. Okay. Yeah, that that’s what we’re seeing. That’s what we’re seeing. Okay. So yeah, that’s that’s somewhat interesting to look at. It’s concerning because maybe he’s not injured. Maybe he’s finally actually just acting his age because, you know, speed should start to fall at some point. And for when a player is dependent on that advantage that he’s gaining with distance, when that advantage is no longer there, it’s a lot harder to to see the upside case for him. So, uh, I I take back my my Vegas recommendation. I like that we were able to talk through that. One of the things now that I’m with Betsertz Golf in the rabbit hole, join it betsgolf.com/mown. Getyou yourself 25% off is I want to create because we just have it’s it’s a far more customizable system that we can kind of get into it and like I want to be able to do that and see that like side by side with each other. So I want to see whatever stat that you want be it club head speed, ball speed, stroke and approach that like hey I want to see in a chart instead of having to click from like two months to 18 months just like have a filter of like hey what is the plus minus over that range. Yeah. Yeah. I think it’s a really good way to do it and a great way to display. Brandon Matthews 193.5 ball speed. Yeah. He’s a he’s a local guy. I know him really well. I’ve played in his uh his charity event at Scranton Country Club. it. I’m almost surprised that it’s not higher because I have seen him hit some some shots and I’ve you know he’s famous on my home course for from the tips hitting like a three iron onto the green on a it’s a like a 640 yard hole the last hole it’s just he hits shots that you don’t see and there was a there was one corn ferry event I think it was um it was like 380 over water and he was just like yeah screw it I’m going for the green and hit the green he’s a he’s an alien. Is he still on Corn Ferry? Uh he he was injured, so I don’t know if he still has medical exemptions, but uh like that’s obviously what he’s playing through. I don’t know if he’ll still have corn ferry status when he plays through his It looks like he does. Um so yeah, I think I think he’s still playing on on medical. I don’t know how many starts he has left, but hopefully he uh he figures it out because the guy’s incredibly talented and an awesome guy as well. So, going back to the betting board, Hatton is sitting there. Maybe I just take all of Legion 13. I I got McKibben on the card at 80 to1. Maybe I put in on Hatton at 20 to1. Connor’s at 33. You said Rose. Rose is what, 40? I said 40 to1 for Rose. I can whittle it down from there. Connor’s for sure. McKibben for sure that I feel like I can be talked into some other guys because we we’ve seen just so many different skill. You know who is another guy who could figure this out? did not end the year well on the PGA Tour, but with just the sort of player like the outlier players that have won here, feels like it could be a really good seaw course. Yeah, it does. And I like we also talked about how at this time of year, maybe we shouldn’t care as much about recent form. We should care more about long-term form. Long-term C was fantastic uh for this course. I’d also say, by the way, like he closed the year pretty well. like he I mean at the at the St. Jude and at VMW like the ball striking was there so I like it. You just need the putter to show up and it hasn’t shown up in a while but that’s the kind of thing like hey if it’s going to show up I hope that it shows up when he’s had a month off to just work on it right and I I don’t know that he’s been working on it the whole time. We of course can’t know. Maybe he hasn’t touched a putter because he was so pissed off with his putting. But maybe that’ll help too. Maybe he just needs like a full factory reset with his putter. So, who knows? I I think that’s the type of bet that that makes a lot of sense just fundamentally uh in terms of like how to bet golf, especially this type of event. And he has lost strokes putting in 10 consecutive events just for what it’s worth. I’m telling you, like a factory reset could not possibly be a bad thing for him. I’m just trying to see like what else. Florida swing guys do pretty well here, too. So, I mean, Fox won in Myrtle Beach and he won in Canada this year, but Lowry wins, Horchel wins, Hatton wins, Willlet wins, Malinari wins, Norin wins. Those are all like Bayill guys. Yeah. Where’s Let’s look at Bay Hill here. I’m trying to think off the I mean, Connors is a Beayill guy very much so. So, Connors. So, Connors for sure. What other Beayill guys can we get to? Is there anyone like sticks out in your mind that’s actually playing in this tournament? No. But I but I would say like I think part of it is just it’s already what we’ve we’ve talked about with Connors. It’s it’s not just like how many great shots you can hit. It’s avoiding the really bad shots. Just being so consistent with your misses, being smart with your misses. He just fits that bill so well. And of course that applies to all of the Florida courses, let alone just Bay Hill. But but I think it also applies to Wworth. Let’s see. Bay Hill. We’ll go to it right now. It’s too bad Scotty Shuffler is not playing in this tournament. Oh, is Kittyama in the field? I don’t think so. No, he’s not. You think You think this is a tournament that Kittyama would go play in? Go try to like win a prestige European event after coming from the DP World Tour. I guess he just got the win, so he’s not worried about rankings anymore. But this will be worth a lot of points if you win. It would. And also for someone who spent so much of the year struggling and then found his game like I would think that he would he’d be so happy and and he’d be having so much fun on the course that he’d just want to play as often as he can. See th this year from Bay Hill taking a look at it. Connors was third. Lowry was seventh. Your boy Ben Anne should be playing in this tournament because he was eighth. Rose was eighth. So that that’s looking good on that front. If we go back obviously Scotty won the year before. Windham Clark came in second with Lowry in third. Windham Clark is I mean he had been playing over in Europe. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in this field. He’s not. Do you like not qualify for the field or something? Were they like, “Man, we don’t want you smashing up our locker room. Take a hike.” My guess is he’s he’s so defeated by not making the Ryder Cup that he just doesn’t want to touch a golf club for months. Do you think like that some of these guys that clearly had no chance of making the RDER Cup thought that they were going to be on the team? No. But I but I think that he I think that he thought that he was going to play himself on. You know, he played well at the Travelers, played really well at the Scottish in the Open, continued that form at the 3M. And I think that he thought, okay, if I play well at the St. Jude and, you know, and move on further into the playoffs, I’m going to play my way on the team. And I think he was just really, really disappointed with the way that he played the St. Jude, finishing 56, not qualifying for the next week. And uh and I think that that’s what just like totally took his uh his energy for golf. Fitz has a really good track record here too at Bay Hill. Sorry. Yeah, he does. Connors is like Conor’s got to win Bayill one of these days if you can ever figure out how to putt. It’s a tough thing to do, but yeah, he should. Yeah. May maybe we can get him through one of those stretches where he’s actually aligned right and it just happens to happen in Florida. Exactly. His problem might be that even when he’s aligned right, he can’t hit his line. I It’s funny going back and looking at it. Victor, Hatton, Horchel have all been really good at Bay Hill along with Fitzpatrick and Connors. Obviously, the only other one who’s actually been really good who’s playing in this event is Hideki. Yeah. Like what what does Hideki’s number have to get to before you take like a talent play on him? 50. He’s at 50 now. then I think I’d bet it. All right, Hideki short list. All right, so to recap the names that we’ve went over, so I’ve bet Connors at 33. I did that during the show. And McKibben at 80 to1 for the BMW PGA Championship from Wentworth. The other short list guys right now are Hatton, Rose, and Hideki. I’ll get to those in the newsletter sub for free down in the description. And then back from the procore, uh, we had Benan at 150 with placement points. That’s one that you liked. I like Grazer Minute 66. Clanton, Quan, A, and Grio. All sort of made my short list, but again, I haven’t officially bet any of those guys yet. I want to kind of wait and see what the market does. Were there any other names that you wanted to add to that mix? No, I think you got them all. 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Now that I’m old, I’ve had to come to the fact that I just don’t bounce back the way that I used to. I don’t wake up in the morning feeling normal. And now that football season has started, that is absolutely unacceptable cuz I got work to do in the morning and I got kids that are waking up. It’s no good. But that isn’t a problem anymore because I found Ziotics Pre-Alcohol. The Ziotics pre-alcohol probiotic drink is the world’s first genetically engineered probiotic invented by PhD scientists to tackle the rough mornings after drinking. Here’s how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It’s a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration that’s to blame for the rough days after drinking. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre-alcohol the first drink of your night. Drink responsibly and you’ll feel the best tomorrow. Go to zbiotics.com/patmo to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Pato at checkout. Ziotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee. So, if you’re unsatisfied for any reason, they’ll refund you your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com/patmo and use the code pato at checkout for 15% off. You want to talk Ryder Cup for a sec? Absolutely. You being an American and all, you sweating yet? No. I I got to tell you like my my patriotism has gone down over the last few years. I I don’t think I need to elaborate on why. How dare you? You’re just a part of the woke hive mind, Blickl. It’s I I love golf. I am I am rooting for whoever I bet on, whoever’s in my DraftKings lineup, and I’m going to have an absolute blast watching the RDER Cup. It is so much fun. Uh it it is the best that golf has to offer. I know Jeff says the same thing, but like he’s he’s 100% right. It’s the best of the sport. It’s the most energetic, but it’s also like you can just see how much it means to the players and they they get to a level of emotion that you don’t see when when they’re just playing on their own. It’s it’s it’s awesome. Uh with ties, plus 150 is the best number I see on Europe. Am I crazy to look at these two teams and think that Europe has a way better team? I wouldn’t say crazy, but I don’t necessarily agree. I think America probably is the better team. Are you sure? Cuz I see some guys on that team. I’m like, I don’t know. Maybe they maybe Ben Griff, maybe Ben Griffin, Harris English, J I mean JJ Spawn has kind of upped his game this year, but we’ve seen this happen in the RDER Cup a bunch of times where the guy out of nowhere with the hot year plays himself in on points. Sucks at the Ryder Cup. Listen, I was I was kind of in the group of Ben Griffin 100% deserved to be, but if I were the captain, I don’t care who deserved it. I care who’s going to help me win. And the the point that I made on Griffin is like I am very confident that you know Morawa for example, I’m very confident that Morawa is going to once again be one of the best players in the world two years from now when the Ryder Cup is being selected again if he doesn’t qualify. I’m I’m not going to be surprised if this was the best year that Ben Griffin ends up having in his career and two years from now he’s not at all a part of the conversation for who is going to be on the US Rder Cup team. And I think that that sort of thing is like is how I would have selected the team. Uh because when you get to the Ryder Cup, when you get to that type of pressure, it’s not your recent form. It’s it’s who you are. And like uh major championships bring out who you are more than who you’ve been. And and I think the Ryder Cup does the same, maybe even to a higher extent. So that’s how I would have picked my team. And to that point, I think you might be right that the the European team is better. But in terms of just like who has played better golf over the last year, I don’t think there’s much of a question that it’s been the US, even though it’s not like some major disadvantage. Well, I just feel like the outside of Scotty the the next like how many of the next best players are on Europe? I mean, maybe you’ll throw like I don’t think that Bryson’s better than Rory. No, I I would put Rory and Rom second and third. And then, weirdly enough, is Fleetwood the next best guy right now or is it Bryson? I think you’re probably right. I think it’s probably Fleetwood. Then it’s probably Bryson. Then I think it’s Bryson. Xander. And yeah, I mean Xander’s one that like if Xander played anywhere near as well this year as he did last year, I would say he’s probably third behind Rory. But right now, I don’t have a problem putting him behind uh Bryson and Tommy. And but I I think that we’re taking into account with Xander in that ranking that he’s going to get back to what closer to what he was, which we didn’t see all year by the way. No, we did not. We saw flashes and we we saw a lot of we saw a lot of like man for the fact that he’s not playing well that he’s consistently finishing where he is. Like that’s a really good sign because it means once he actually does figure it out, he’s going to win again. And we never got the when he figures it out, but but but he’s clearly still one of the best in the world. So, I mean, coming off the the ribs injury is is always going to be tough. So, it’s a Europe Ryder Cup team because we haven’t even mentioned Ludvig or Victor or Hatton yet. Yeah. And then then like now we’re into the Spawn English Griffin unless you go like can’t lay Morocawa Burns like the guys Henley’s next. I don’t like I mean if we start thinking about I mean you can run a course fit model on Beth Page. You think Henley’s going to like this is a good Henley course? No, I don’t. Um I I think you can make a very good argument that like the course fit isn’t good for Henley. But if we’re just talking about the best players in the world where they rank in the world, I think Henley would be next. If you want to go course fit, I think you can get to some of these longer guys like then I think you can even bring Cam Young into the I It’s funny that you mentioned Ben Griffin. if you were trying to pick the team. Mhm. And I know that this will seem very hot takey and maybe it doesn’t need to be this name in particular, but I would have rather than Ben Griffin. I would have taken Ben Griffin because he played him I think he played well enough to be on the team, but if we were thinking about it objectively, what plays well at this course, I think he would have been better off with God or Kittyama or one of those guys. Yeah. I mean, I don’t hate to take um by any means. I I think it’s it’s solid. I think the the guy that I might have taken is actually Windham Clark. I probably He’s got bad vibes. Bad vibes on Windham Clark. Maybe. I I don’t know. I I don’t know how the players feel about him because the the They like him. I I can confirm this. I asked Michael Kim. He’s like, “Yeah, people love Windom.” That that’s kind of the the indication that I got. So, I don’t I don’t necessarily think it would have been bad vibes. I like it stinky might be true that Mora was actually the bad vibes guy. I again I don’t know but but yeah I I think Windham could have been could have been a good pick and really enough like I I certainly am not saying that um Windham should have made it because of how well he did on TGL but I think there’s an element of Windham’s game fits match play really that is that is the hottest take of this show. Windham Clark should be on the RDER Cup team because he dominated TGL. Quote Alex Blickl. Sure, go for it. But but no, it’s it’s I think Windham’s game fits match play really well and I think we saw that through TGL to a degree, but I don’t think we needed TGL to to know that about his game. It’s it’s how fiery he is. It’s the fact he’s a really good putter. the fact that he’s got the distance and can be so streaky with the ball striking that like you could get Windham where it doesn’t matter who he’s playing, he’s going to beat his opponent that day in match play. And then you can also get Windom where it doesn’t matter who he’s playing, he’s going to lose that day in match play. But but that kind of boomer nature of his game of course fits better to to match play than stroke play because you can only lose one hole at a time. You can’t make a triple bogey that completely ruins a round. Yeah. And I just look at the back end of the team that maybe I’m dead wrong where the Henley, Griffin, English, like they’ve played I mean Henley and English in particular have played really well at long courses and hard courses in their career. So maybe that’s not going to be an issue for them. I would just want to have the longer skill set and I think that just belongs to Europe right now. Like who are their short guys that they’re taking? Rose, Lowry, Straka, and Bobby Mack, I guess, are like their short off the tea guys. And three of those guys have like a ton of experience in Rder Cups. And not only that, but like they they also are really accurate off the team. Rose, not necessarily. Rose is kind of like in that Hideki uh group of if he drives the ball well, he’s going to contend because of how good everything else is. But but like you can even throw Tommy in the mix of like guys who aren’t overly long, doesn’t have much ball speed, but drives the ball so well and so straight that especially if Beth Paige is firm, which I can tell you like most of the golf courses around where I’m at here in the Northeast are firm right now, then part of the distance equation is going to be getting the 30 yards of run out on the fairway instead of hitting the ball into the rough. So, uh I course fit is a little bit concerning for the Americans. I think I I I really like the way Europe stacks up there. Like, but listen, even if you think it’s close to 50/50 or the Americans are slightly better, plus 150 just seems like a big number. Yeah, it it feels very um it feels like it’s overweighing the home course advantage. And I don’t I think it was Kentlay. I don’t know if you saw Canley just gave this answer the other day about like the the home course advantage for the RDER Cup and and how dominant uh Europe has been in the RDER Cup lately and he brought up the point that like look we play once every two years. There’s a there’s a really big sample size. Klay Klay is not a small sample guy. He is really not. No surprise, right? He’s the he’s the uh finance guy. So, of course, he knows numbers and probability, but uh but he everything he said is 100% true. If if there was no homecourse advantage and there was no European advantage, we would still expect through pure randomness this type of Europe dominant streak and this type of home course dominant streak to show up a fair amount of the time just again out of pure randomness. So, um I think I’m with you. plus 150 is where the value is because I don’t necessarily think that the home course advantage is as strong as it seems to be lately just because we are assuming that this run over the last I don’t know 20 30 years is because home course matters a lot more now than it ever has. It might just be totally random. Well, part of the home course advantage is getting to set up the course the way that you want it to be set up. I do think that there would be positive signal to that. The issue is now with the Europeans and obviously listen they were just outclassed at Whistling Straits. It was a bad course for the team that they brought and the talent at that time for the it was too young. It was too early for some of the young guys on the European team who have now kind of elevated themselves up to be like full reckoning type players that I just think that it’s not necessarily the captain. I don’t really think the captain matters all that much, but I do think that the the infrastructure and the team itself does mean a lot. And it just feels like the European side just has way more going on behind the scenes. Yeah. I I mean, and Whistling Straits, like that’s a perfect example, by the way, of home course mattered because of the setup, but it also mattered just because the Americans had a big distance advantage that year and Whistling Straits is a big bombers course. So like is that homec course advantage or is that just hey there happened to be a talent gap uh particularly in the skill set that mattered most on that golf course. Uh so agree with you there and the other thing I really agree with is is your point on captains. I think the only thing that captains make a big difference on and I would actually say like this is maybe less captain and more just like overall leadership team and of course the captain should be the one driving that and making sure these decisions are going on and being made as a team is how you pair guys in alternate shot. I don’t think pairing matters a ton in baseball. Don’t think uh you know finding the quoteunquote right matchups or how you throw guys out in order in singles. I don’t think that matters a ton. How you pair players in alternate shot 100% matters and I think that’s where Europeans have dominated Americans in the past. A and I would say that is not attributable really to the captain and that’s more of the infrastructure that they have. They’re not going on V like Keegan’s going to go out there and go off, oh man, Henley and Scotty are great pals. Alternate shot. Put them together. I Yeah, I don’t know. I mean, I think they they might take the the queue from the President’s Cup. I actually think Scotty and Henley do make a lot of sense together. I was just giving that as an okay let’s say let’s say Henley let’s let’s say Henley and Sheffller make a ton of sense in alternate shots like oh but I’ I’ve been seeing Burns pal around with Sheffler all week. Let’s put them together. Yeah you friends are going to be perfect. That’s a perfect example of a really bad pairing because Scotty’s the best iron player in the world by a mile. Put him with somebody who’s going to put him in the fairway and let him use that strength. Right. So um I I think that’s a really good call out. really good really good example of the type of mistake the Americans have made in the past. Hopefully Keegan and company do not make that type of mistake this year. Uh I I think like we could do an hourlong show by the way just of what we think the pairings are going to be and how we would pair them if we were Captain Keegan. That would be a fun show. Will you pull a Mike Weir and just run the same team out backtoback sessions? I might for for alternate shot. I’d probably mix things up in in baseball. Um, and in particular, like I would do that because that’s where I think it it matters a ton just how guys are playing and and who’s making a ton of birdies, who’s who’s struggling to read the greens, and therefore they’re not going to be able to make many birdies. But alternate shot, like to me, that’s so much about how guys are together that if I had four teams that I thought were much better than any other combination that I could make, I would absolutely put that out there backto-back days. Wait, is it Forsomes is alternate shot, right? Forsomes. Yeah. All right. So, here are some of the pairings from last time. Man, there a lot of American guys were Here are some guys that went out uh together as a part of the USA team. You had Jordan Spe out there, Brooks, Homer, Harmon. Uh those guys aren’t on the team anymore. So, no, it’s a it’s a very good indication of why they got their ass kicked. So, what’s weird about it is I would be like I I was trying to think like what my strategy would be like what would I see work well and just one of the best uh alternate shot pairings I can remember in Ryder Cup history was actually in France was the Tommy Molinari team. They just but they did exactly the same things well like Europe has a big habit of throwing out guys outside of like Rory and Rom who they try to stick like another good player with them. They should almost play together in a weird way. Yeah, I think there’s so like as as a as a goal for myself, the way that I would think through this is number one, I want I want guys who are are are not putting players in a disadvantageous situation that they’re not used to. So like that’s number one. So for example, if if Scotty Sheffller is used to hitting every single fairway, I don’t want to put him with someone who’s going to miss fairways. And now Scotty’s like, “Well, what the hell? I I don’t know how to just recover every hole. I’m so used to being in the fair. I’m so used to being able to attack over and over again. So that type of thing is is the first thing that I think of. And then the second thing is I look for opportunities on the course itself. And quite frankly, like I haven’t thought about Beth Page thoroughly enough to say whether this is one of those courses or not, but is there is the does the course provide an opportunity and alternate shot where you can have like a role for each player where you have a driver? Yeah. Par three guy, driver guy. Yeah. Like does it does it line up with the par threes? Does it line up with the par fives? That there’s a driver guy and an approach guy. And because if you can do that, then driver guy, iron guy, putter, like it it can line up for let’s say it lines up for 12 of the 18 holes. You’re now getting a much better player player that combination of guys than you would if just either one of those individuals were out there on his own playing his own ball for 18 holes. So that’s the way that I would do it. And and I think that I I would go so far as to say that I would if I were the captain, I’d be picking my team with forsome pairings. Like that’s the number one thing that I would be using to pick my players. So the Ben Griffin versus Colin Morawa decision might come down to which of these guys am I more likely to use in forsomes? And then that’s how I that like that’s the criteria. It doesn’t matter who had the better season. Does it matter who I want in baseball? Because I know I’m gonna be able to find eight good Americans to put out there in best. I don’t know if I’m gonna find Here were the initial Ryder Cup European teams. You had Rory and Tommy Ludvig and Victor seemed like the most log seemed like the most logical pairing until you got to Lowry and Straa playing together. That makes a ton of sense. Yep. And then Ram and Hatton who are you know they are teammates. Yeah. Yeah. they those pairings like really seem to be exactly what you were talking about like put guys who are similar and it’s also like it’s it’s kind of what I’m saying too because if you have similar golfers then neither one of them is being put in a disadvantageous situation that they’re not accustomed to. So I I think it makes a lot of sense the way they’ve done it and hopefully Americans learn a little bit this year. Just trying to see if I can find those from the Saturday forsomes. What were the other foresomes matchups? Trying to find RDER Cup and President’s Cup like records, matchups, singles is like the most difficult thing in the world to Google. I I use chat GPT that didn’t really work. No, it’s so hard. You think even when you go to these sports books, it’s really hard to find. Like sometimes they’re under uh golf, but you can’t find it through PGA or sometimes it’s under RDER Cup and you can’t find it through through golf. It’s it’s so annoying. So they actually did the the Friday forsomes. they rolled out were exactly the same because they went four and0 in Rome in the forsomes in the first session because they didn’t lose a match on the opening day. So they went four and0 and they just rolled back those same four teams on day two. Might as well. Yeah. Yeah. Havlin and Ludvig played together I think in every session. They sat one session. No, because Havlin played with Hatton but other than that they they were paired together three of the four team rounds. Rose played with Bobby Mack and we got Fleetwood with Hoygard when Rory sat in baseball, but that’s it. I like it. All right, smart. I’m I’m so sorry you didn’t win the million bucks, man. I’ll be okay. So, I I was I did a a review show with with Tambo this morning, and I said this there, too. is like so many damn things went exactly the way I needed them to yesterday that I really can’t complain about Nico Collins not playing well. And and the other point there is like there were two guys ahead of me who had KD hit a touchdown on the first drive and got hurt. Who am I to complain about Nico Collins? It would have been a lot of fun, but it was still a really good day and and a lot of fun sweating it out. It’s funny because I like Nico, too. I think everyone liked Nico going into the game, but to see the outcome and then to reverse engineer what happened, you’re like, “Oh, that actually makes a ton of sense.” I I said this on on the table show, too. It was like, I think I was right to like the matchup for Nico, but I was very wrong to trust the Houston offensive coordinator to take advantage of that matchup. Uh we have not seen anything from from their offensive coordinator in years. So, uh yeah, that was uh that was maybe the the part that I overlooked. But I also think that look, he might have been a really good play and it just didn’t work out. That happens all the time. It is. But I just the way that because I went back and watched the game cuz I was curious of like what happened to him. The Rams defense did two things. They basically triple covered Nico just made sure they had him low and high at all times and put all of their focus in the secondary on him and they just it was basically just going through Swiss cheese on the offensive line. Like Stout didn’t have time like the routes that you would want Colin to get himself into. He they just didn’t have time to develop and when they did he was completely covered. Yeah. I I I think the thing that I most overvalued was the likelihood that they would draw up some like quick targets for him. Like I don’t know if you were watching the game but on the opening drive for example they had a third and long and they called a screen a wide receiver screen to Nico Collins probably picks up 15 yards. They punt but that would have been two and a half points. The problem was they had a false start. They ran the play. So now there’s like, oh [ __ ] the Rams just saw what we wanted to do there. So they went away from it and like they never went back to a wide receiver screen. The Rams were playing off. They they could have gotten six, eight yards at will a lot of the time. They chose not to. And it was just a really odd game plan and they kept running Nico like right into the heart of the zones was was really frustrating to watch. So one one last question pertaining to my golf game. Uh, I I’ve now changed my driver’s swing after I played my my my personal RDER Cup with my friends and I try to win. I won it this year for the first time. It was fantastic news. Congratulations. Thank you. Um, but I’m changing my driver swing. I’m hitting the ball too high all of a sudden. Okay. And I’m getting It’s so baked out here like that. It should be rolling for days, but my ball basically hits and stops now. Feel like that’s bad. It’s not ideal. No. Not ideal, but but I’m hitting like a really high cut which can turn into a slice when I mis hit it. So now I’m trying to hit a draw, but it doesn’t go nearly as high, but it [ __ ] flies. Yeah. So I’d say two things. Number one, um, when when you’re hitting the ball too high and especially if you’re over cutting it with your miss, the first thing that comes to my mind is you might be leading your weight too far back. So, just think about getting to your front side in the swing. But I also don’t want to necessarily like steer you wrong with that because I’d have to actually see the swing. So, you know, I have good buddies. send me the damn video of your swing and I can give you better uh better feedback. And then the other thing is you might not be doing anything wrong. You might just need better equipment to make up for whatever adjustments you made, especially if you know if you’re someone who works out a lot and you’re getting stronger and you’re swinging faster. You’re going to need to change equipment otherwise you’re going to hit a high spinny shot. So, uh lot of different options for what could be and I don’t want to steer you wrong just by guessing. Well, I bought the actually Michael Kim just gave one away, but I bought it earlier this year. I bought the Titalist M2, I think it is. It’s awesome. Yeah, the forgiveness on that club, like I can tow the I can just tow everything and it still just kind of goes. The the reason why why I’m hitting the ball so high now is that I have a bad problem with early extension and popping up through my swing. And I was doing that on my driver. So, I was slicing the ball like crazy when I got this new driver cuz I was hitting everything at the very bottom of the club. So, my golf coach was like, “Hey, just just tee it up higher. You’ll probably hit it like dead center.” Which I started to do. problem is now like I’m hitting up on it so much that it’s going super high in the air. Yeah, early extension is a tough one because it’s not as simple as don’t early extend because most early extension isn’t something that you’re like subconsciously trying to do. It’s that you’re making up for like a something that you’re lacking physically. So, you got to figure out what that is first and then either address it or figure out how to compensate in the rest of your swing. So, early extension is a really really hard thing to figure out. It’s something I struggled with a lot in my own uh golf career. Yeah. Yeah. So, so at least now one one thing that I’ve gotten into with my swing where even if I do, I’m more topping it than chunking it now with the way that I’m like aligned and the way that I’m swinging. So, at least, you know, unless there’s a hazard directly in front of me, like a like I had one the other day where I think I was like 185 out. I had a bit of wind at my back, so I took out an eight iron and I was like, you know, if I click if I crush this, I’m going to get it there in two. If not, I’ll be slightly short. But I ended up topping it because, you know, I ended up coming up on top of the ball instead of chunking it. It just whatever spin got put on, it just rolled directly to like eight feet. I was like, “Yeah, that’s perfect.” So, the misses the misses have become much better for me because of that. Because before with the early extension, I was chunking everything [ __ ] two feet in front of me. What’s interesting is sometimes chunking and topping can actually be the same issue, which is just the low point of your swing has moved backwards. Yes. And so if the low point goes into the ground, you chunk it. the low point doesn’t go into the ground, you now come up over the ball and you top it. So, it can be the same issue. Well, it was exactly the same. I just moved the ball up in my stance instead of back in my stance. Yeah, exactly. So, so yeah, it like I said, if you want to send me your swing, I’m more than happy to look at it. It’s I I love doing that sort of thing. Appreciate it. Next time I hit the golf course, I will let you know. ftn.com. Blick tell everyone where they can follow you on the Twitter machine for both golf and football since apparently you’re the seventh best player in the world as of this week. I I’ll take that. Alex1 on Twitter and yeah, you can find all the FTN fantasy stuff. Uh I projections, ownership, all that over on FTN. You can also check out the the new Discord I started, especially if you’re interested in in Pickham stuff. I know uh you love you love underdog and I’ve been having so much fun over the last few years uh learning how to like kind of excel over on underdog. It’s been it’s been really helpful and it’s especially helpful with like balancing the swings that can come with DFS. If you’re consistently making money on underdog, it’s a lot easier to handle when you have a two, three bad week stretch over in DFS. That will do it for me. I’m Pat Mayo. Follow me at the PML of the newsletter with the final bets coming out a little bit later on. Want to think about it a little bit more. If you want to do your research, do your own research. That’s what I’m saying to people. Ask your own questions. You can do that at betswordsgolf.com/mo. Use the rabbit hole as a DFS optimizer. It has projections. It has a Discord. And it has what you’re used to, be it with the rabbit hole or fantasy national as the generic template that we’ve always used to store the sats. And the rabbit hole is just so much more efficient with more stats and more customizable for everything that you’re looking for. So go give it a go. rabbit hole.com. Sorry, not rabbit hole.com. Betsgolf.com/mo. All right, thank you all for watching. Smash the like on the way out and I will see you next time. And they experience experience.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
1:47 Procore Championship
42:27 BMW PGA Championship
1:04:45 Bets Recap
1:07:28 Ryder Cup
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My bets here
Thank you Pat for the information.
This guest is smart
Thanks for being there for us golf junkies