2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

Get ready for an in-depth golf betting preview of The FedEx St. Jude Championship! We break down the top players, course analysis, key stats, and picks to help you make informed betting decisions. Discover the latest odds, expert predictions, and one and done picks for this elevated event. 

Topics Covered:
    •    TPC Southwind course overview
    •    Key stats for success at the course 
    •    Top bets and placement markets 
    •    Betting strategies and best odds

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This is Long Shots, Vison’s premier golf betting podcast. Here’s Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Biden. And it is Long Shots Golf Betting Podcast here on the VO Podcast Network. I am Matt Brown. That is Wes Reynolds. That is Kelly Bidlin. It is finally here. We have gotten to the playoffs here in the PGA season. Counting down to NFL getting going and playoffs. Yeah, we are down to the playoffs here and uh got to start things off here. It is a very sad day, maybe the saddest of sad days here on the Long Shots podcast. We have often listed off our list of losers and uh the guys that have cost us the most amount of money since we’ve been betting golf. And there’s one golfer who if you had bet an outright on every single time that he had teed it up 94 previous times you would have a ROI of negative infinity because Cam Young had never won a PGA Tour event. Wes Reynolds has an affinity for Cam Young in his game. And Cam Young was rude and crude and went off and won a tournament that West did not have him on the outright card. And I do not like Cam Young and he is not allowed on this podcast ever. Even if he wants to come on and talk to us, he is barred and forbidden from ever coming on long shots because Wes, you of the 21 other times that you have bet him, he could have gone out and won a damn tournament and then he goes out here in this one that shouldn’t have fit him at all. He should not have been able to win this tournament. Instead, he runs away with it. Damn you, Cam Young. You are for you are barred from this podcast for life, buddy. You know, there there’s a part of me that kind of felt dumb not betting him, even though you’re right, Matt. He’s not a fit at all for for this type of course. This is uh not a driver heavy course there at Sedgefield for last week’s Windham Championship in Greensboro. And look, that’s what Cameron Young does best is is is hit it with the driver and he hits it all over the place, but he can hit it pretty far. So I thought, well, this really doesn’t fit even though it’s kind of a home game for him because he played his college golf at nearby Wake Forest in Winston Salem, not too far from Greensboro. And so the home game I think carried over and plus the fact that his ball striking was was absolutely excellent last week. He ran away and I look at the final margin because I stopped following it at at very early on Sunday knowing that this was pretty much a foregone conclusion and and I looked at it and it’s like he only won by six. Like I felt he should have won by like 10 the the way he struck the way he struck the ball in in this tournament. and you know ju just just an absolute clinic from the guy and uh uh congratulation to him and and also the fact that that he led this field in putting so that’s always going to help any event that you’re in. But Cameron Young wins by six and uh perhaps puts himself in the RDER Cup consideration. I think there’s a couple spots on the back end of Keegan Bradley’s roster that uh may still very well be open. So, these playoff events are really going to matter over the next few weeks, not just from the money standpoint from the FedEx Cup, but also for RDER Cup consideration. Kelly goes out there on Sunday and uh bogeies the first hole and I go, “Oh god, I can’t oh my god, he’s going to do this. He’s going to collapse. I cannot believe this is going to happen.” And then and then he birdied four straight holes and then uh it was never no looking back from there. But yeah, I mean I had no money on him. We collectively had no money on him. I was actually rooting for the dude because like when he bogeied that first hole, I’m like, “Oh my god, this guy might never recover if he blows this freaking lead and like doesn’t win this tournament.” And so I I was when he bounced back with the birdie, I was kind like, “Oh, thank God.” I mean, this is like because we don’t we don’t ever root against these dudes, right? I mean, like we’re not like we’re we’re fans of the sport. We’re fans of golf. And so, um, wanted him to get it done and and fortunately did get it done. And as Wes said, I mean, you know, at least maybe considered on how he shows out the next few weeks could put himself on the back end of all of that. I don’t know. The inconsistencies for him, I would I would not have him anywhere near uh the team uh is just like going out and win one tournament at the like we’re we’re we’re being very like biased like by recency bias, right? I mean like like his his his overall performances are so erratic that like I mean just cuz he wins a tournament here down towards the stretch doesn’t really mean there’s so many guys on that back end too that you can like throw a blanket over that are really borderline and you know does Bradley go with experience or does he go with who the hot player is because there are guys that are going to be on this team that are already clinch pretty much in the points that we didn’t think were going to be on namely JJ Spawn who is going to be on this team as the US Open champion So, you never know. Uh, he’s a big hitter, so you would think he would fit Beth Paige a hell of a lot more than he did Sedgefield, but he is very erratic and has been really all season. Well, what I mean, the only thing I’ll push back on there is where where we at with uh Okay, so Well, this is going to be I do not have Ryder Cup standings up, so this is a complete waste. Kelly Kelly, Kelly, if you’re if you’re going to push back on something, you better pull up the right graphic. I mean I you can’t you can’t say like you can’t say no where are God up and Griffin at? Where are God up and Griffin at? Are they in or not? They are not in the points right now. I actually have it pulled up. Uh are they are they in Matt Brown’s power rankings ahead of Cameron Young who rank God up and Ben Griffin? Absolutely. Okay. So, is it more exponentially more consistent than he? Is it more is it more recency bias though to latch on to Cameron Young, a guy who’s at least played much better golf over several years than those two or or to go to those two who have done it all this season? Well, I mean, you have to So, there’s difference between recency bias when we’re talking about an entire calendar year of golf and we’re talk and we’re talking about like one week of tournament. Like, it’s sure you can sit there and say like, oh, over the course of his whole career, but I mean, then you could bring up like a million different guys who have had who have played well at some point for stretches or whatever. Great. He’s got the win rate and should we be debating Lucas Glover then? I mean, like, what are you No. I mean, no, of course not. Like, and to your point, like there are guys that are like nowhere in consideration that are past RDER Cupers that have had good runs. Like, like Tony Fee now is nowhere near this team right now. He’s like 22nd in the standings. By the way, it’s top six that finish it in the top uh of the standings that get the automatic bids and then six captains picks for Bradley. But like like Tony Fenow or Ricky Fowler. So, it’s like, do you do it where somebody gets really hot in these FedEx Cup playoffs? And then you got to consider cuz I remember remember several years ago when Billy Horchel won two playoff events and did not get selected to the RDER Cup team. So, I think it’s a more holistic view and and uh you know, we’ll we’ll see what Captain Bradley does. I’m I’m starting to lead, by the way, a little bit to maybe Captain Bradley is not going to pick himself as a player. I’m starting to think that he’s not. I’m going to be so upset. I think that he should. I agree, Kelly. I agree, Kelly. I think that he should, but I think when you’re the Ryder Cup captain and especially when you represent the side that’s been getting its ass kicked in the last 20 to 25 years, you don’t get this opportunity to be a captain. So, like, like look how negatively we think of Zack Johnson now. It’s like, man, he did not captain a good Rder Cup in Rome. And you never want that as your legacy. So, I think Bradley might be like, yeah, if I play, I’m going to be distracted. So, that maybe opens up another spot on the back end of the team. Yeah. I mean, there there’s another guy though, right, who’s uh he’s played well recently and has got some legacy numbers to back him up way more than Cameron Young that I would be much more infuriated. You know what’s funny, man? I know you’re getting sick of me right now. What’s funny is I never feel like I’m the big Rder Cup guy and I never ever want to get into these conversations like everybody does their whole like rankings this time of year and I’m just like this is so boring to me. But every time I get pulled into one of these conversations, I always somehow have a passionate take on it. I I don’t know. Top six, by the way, in the points right now, just to mention, Sheffller, Schoffé, Spawn, Henley, Dambo, and Harris English as of where we sit right now are the top six. And then JT right outside of it, I expect JT to make the team. Morawa just behind him. Still expect him to make the team even though, you know, he might want to have a couple good performances the next couple weeks. I I wouldn’t be pissed off if Colin was left off like to like Yeah. I mean, maybe not to your point, Matt, but to to the overall season success, I expect more out of Colin Morau. Find a caddy first. He’s got to find Caddy number five this week. Number four, I think number four this week. Uh Mark Urbanac, by the way, who is Tony Fen now’s bagman, is now on Colin Marott’s bag this week. I got I got a couple other things we could move on. I know that Don’t worry, Ryder Cup. We’ve got plenty we got plenty of time to talk about it, argue about it. It’s going to be I I I think we can all agree the next couple weeks though are very important for for what the back end of that team looks like, right? Yeah. I mean, I I you you talk about Morau. I mean, yeah, he he he didn’t do well overseas, but like I mean, you know, outside of that, I mean, it’s T7, T72, T10, T14, T17, T20, T23, T8. I mean, like he just hadn’t won anything, so it’s kind of like it feels like whatever. But, I mean, you know, he’s What have you done for me lately? Colin, give me a double. I’ll just put it this way. I don’t really care about arguing about this because we can and all this. Just next time that you say like, “Hey, I got a point to proof.” And then like you go to a window and you pull up Pornhub instead like like I don’t like like don’t pull up your Pornhub window like instead of like the actual window that you’re trying to like pull up on the thing over here. Like just have it ready if you’re going to try to come back to me about Ryder Cup porn is a real niche show. That’s a real niche right there. Two other things I want to bring up. How How are Okay, so the Cameron Young ROI, I love that Rick Gaiman did this. If you bet $100 on Cameron Young every tournament of his career, you’re still down $3,200. That That’s where we’re at with the Cameron Young. I have some hundreds, maybe in the thousands range that I have lost on Cameron Young. So, uh I’m at least part of that. The other one I don’t know how much we’ve talked about ever on this podcast. It is one of the things that fas of all of sponsorships on the PGA tour that have as wacky as we’ve seen in the past 2030 years especially in the 90s right before Tiger came around and really it was okay a lot of big brands come into play. Well, I’ve never fully understood the Major League Baseball sponsorship on certain golfers and like how I don’t know. It’s just kind of I’m not saying it shouldn’t be okay, but it’s a little weird. And there’s like four or five of them that have it. And how did like the golf casual fans I feel like never bring this up. They never bring this up. And I it’s mind-blowing to me that like these guys win this tournament. You know, Johnny Vegas or a Cameron Young, there’s just a big like MLB logo on their collar. It’s just it’s odd to me. Nobody else. remember when uh uh Payne, the late great Payne Stewart wore the NFL stuff and he always wore the team of the city he was in. So if there’s a PJ tour event Chicago, he’d have the orange and blue on for the Bears on Sunday. And that’s what Payne Stewart always did in the 80s and the 90s. So nobody’s really tried to duplicate that though with the baseball. They’re just wearing the big MLB logo. Like it’s not like, “Okay, we’re in Atlanta this week, so let me wear a Braves polo or or something like that.” So, we haven’t seen that yet. Just I’m I’m waiting for that next NBA team to just have like an NFL shield like next to them. Like, I just That would be weird, right? Like that would be weird. But in golf, we’re just like, “Yeah, it’s okay. That’s fine.” I mean, I’m just going to assume they don’t pay very well because like none of the bigname dudes have it. It’s like, dude, it’s none of the big name, right? It’s so it’s like Yeah. baseball gives them like five tickets to a game a year or something and that’s like what the end season tickets to their home home team. Are they paying what Kevin Cosner or Roy Makavoy got in Tin Cup where he had first Bank of Salame and like such and such a you know Chills Barbecue and Grill or something or whatever the hell was on it. I mean it’s Cameron Young, Johnny Vegas, and Adam Long I believe I can remember off the top of my head and I feel like I’m missing one or two. Like it’s more than you would think. It’s just weird to me. Sorry. They’re allowed to throw out a first pitch at some point over the next two years as the sponsorship or something. They can go out and throw the first pitch out at one of the games or something. You guys don’t seem as enthused as me. I’ll I’ll pitch it to Pablo Tori finds out. We’ll we’ll go investigate this real hard. Yeah. Yeah. Go get it. Yeah. Go get us a definitive answer and then you can come back and show it up on the screen and it’ll be a totally different window and like it won’t even be what you’re trying to investigate the NFL. Yeah. Yeah. He has more of an interest in Bill Bich’s love life certainly than I do. Okay. So Pat, put the uh regular season behind us and off we go. And we are heading over to TPC Southwind and uh Wes of course as always if people want to become a VO pro subscriber voncent.com go over you can get the full write up and breakdown of everything. But uh here for podcast purposes what are we going to be looking at? Yeah we are in Memphis Tennessee at TPC Southwind as we usually are. So, uh, uh, we don’t have it queued up, but cue, pretend you’re hearing the Walking in Memphis song by, uh, the 1992 Grammy Award-winning best new artist, Mark. Kelly, don’t you dare do it. Don’t you dare. We’re going to get booted off of YouTube and whatever. We’re going to get all kinds of like copyright infringements and stuff. Yes. We don’t need a lawsuit here, but Walking in Memphis, just imagine you’re hearing it. Uh, by the way, this is the top 70, but this week, Rory Mroy not walking in Memphis. I have no idea where he is. He’s probably resting somewhere in a tropical climate, but he is not in this field this week because he’s going to be in the tour championship and they reset the RDER Cup point or the not Ryder Cup, FedEx Cup points, I should say. And and oh by the way, just to look ahead, tour championship. We don’t have the starting strokes anymore. So that makes me more interested in the FedEx Cup playoffs that we don’t have that because I hated the starting strokes. It made it a nightmare to handicap. So we still do it 7050 30 in the FedEx Cup event. 70 this week, 50 in Baltimore next week for the BMW, and then 30 at East Lake for the Tour Championship. So, we are looking this week though at TPC Southwind, which has hosted the uh the tour for forever uh here in Memphis. This used to be this has been a variety of names when it was just the regular St. Jude Classic uh in June and now it’s been a WGC event. Now, it’s a FedEx Cup playoff event. So built in 1988. Ron Pritchard the designer. Fuzzy Zeller was a consultant on this. Probably one of the more difficult TPC courses of all the TPC uh layouts owned by the tour. 7288 par 78 is Zoya Grass. So very similar to East Lake in Atlanta where you get some bounce in the fairways, but these fairways are really narrow. 27 yards wide on average. These are very, very tight windows. You’ve got some Bermuda rough. They can be tricky and unpredictable. Greens are Bermuda. The course is pretty much Bermuda for without or throughout. Slower greens, slowish, maybe average. Uh but very small greens to hit. 4,300 square feet on average. You have a lot of water on this course. Uh uh I think the most water balls on tour by far over the last 20 years. So what they did in terms of some renovations, they did rebuild and resurface all the greens and all the tea boxes, but not a lot of difference in what we saw last year. maybe about a 50-yard longer course. They have had a lot of rain too in Memphis. We’ll get to that when we talk about the weather, but they’ve had a lot of rain this year. So, you are going to get firm greens, but I think the heat is going to counteract that. So, this should be pretty firm greens and some bounce in those fairways. If we uh if we look at this, Kelly, is there anything as you were looking over the course? I know that we’re it is at least a little bit different than what we’ve seen in years past with some renovations being done uh within the last year. Is there anything that stood out to you? Um yeah, I a course I like um this is I I remember now as we do these podcasts, it’s always like the alternating weeks of the courses that I like down the stretch. So, um look, I it’s it’s a premium on ball striking, right? This is these are narrow fairways. Got to keep it in the fairways. These will be penal roughs that these guys are going to have to deal with. So, keep it in the fairway. Distance helps for sure. Um, so off the tea is going to be major here and then it’s going to be a real premium on approach play. This is a par 70. A lot of par4s baked in. How you do on those par fours uh is going to be probably how you do in the tournament. Um, the greens, I don’t I don’t think they’re the trickiest on the plant, but they’re small, right? So, you got to hit the greens and, you know, if we get a hot putter, you’re you’re probably around for the weekend. I do think you got to factor in a little around the green play, a little a little scrambling. Uh but man, this is a major ball strikers week and I think we’re the uh the ball strikers podcast. So you’re looking for guys out there that are going to go flush it and get a another Kirk Kittyama home or something like Wes Reynolds there. If you’re looking for course correlations, you know, Sawrass for the players, Inisbrook, which is where the uh uh Valpar is, PJ National, East Lake, of course, with the Zoya and Atlanta, and maybe a little Pebble Beach. I I’ve seen cuz I kind of like to look at these and see, okay, what players have succeeded here and other courses and if there’s kind of some course carryover like we talked about last week with Sedgefield and uh and Harbortown for the RBC Heritage, I think those courses I listed, you’ll find a lot of common winners or at least very high places here. Yeah. A couple notes, a couple notes I actually wrote down. This is from Ron Claus and then Patton Mayo. Both of these I kind of combined. In the past 13 years at TPC Southwind, only three winners have finished worse than 16th for the week in strokes gained off the tea. So 13 years, only three of those winners have finished worse than 16th off the tea. Uh and on approach, no winner has finished outside the top 20 in the year in which they hoisted the trophy. No winner ever. Uh over the past three years, 43 of the top 48 players on the leaderboard gained in good drive percentage compared to the field. So, I mean, I I I don’t usually lean on a ton of trend numbers like that, but man, that shows you you got to you got to keep it in the fairways, do well off the tea here, and do well on approach. Yeah, it is. um you know, one of those deals too where we’ll talk about this when we talk about the stats that matter, but you know, it’s you’re going to look and it doesn’t sound like it’s all that intimidating with only 3-in Bermuda rough, but as we talk about a lot of times, like these dudes would rather play out a 4-in rough of any type of other grass than 3-in rough of Bermuda just because there’s no consistency whatsoever as to how that’s going to come out because that that rough like sticks to the club face. Depends on how and how far it gets down in there. then it just like can get all kinds of crappy and whatever and stuff. So, just uh something to keep in mind. I’m sure we will we will discuss that as we talk about the stats that matter to us from from what we’re looking at off the tea with all of this. But, as no surprise to anyone that has been listening to uh this podcast or playing uh any sort of any sort of golf tournament throughout the course of the year, yes, Scotty Sheffler is your favorite and he’s your favorite by a ton. He is anywhere from about high 200ish something to I think there’s still one 3 to one out there in the market at MCM but yeah it’s like basically kind of where we sit um you know right at that 3 to1 a little bit less than 3 to1 and then it jumps all the way to 18ish something like that with with Xander and and as was mentioned it’s every big name in golf outside of Rory Mroy so we’ll we don’t have to go down the the list here but you Fleetwood, Thomas, Fitzpatrick, Ludvig, Henley, etc. McCrae, etc. Like, they’re all here. And uh they all kind of go down into that mid20s into the 30s range. And so, you know, Kelly, here comes the question that we will talk about before we, you know, get going here. And and I already got asked this on Twitter, and we’re only here on early on Tuesday, is should I be playing the winner without market? And I mean, this is a it’s hard for me to say no to somebody out there. Like I mean, if somebody gave me if somebody gave me a million, you know, a million dollars right now and said I could either bet three golfers at 333,000 or I could bet all million on Scotty Sheffler. I would bet all a million on Scotty Sheffler. Like I mean like it’s just it’s like that’s like that’s just the honest of God’s truth. And so he is better than everybody by a long shot. We can go through the stats we go at on here. It is like it’s not even close with with the the next guy. And so, you know, I I guess that is the question. I don’t know how you um are looking at it this week or something, but I mean I I honestly believe if you’re if you’re parachuting in and you want to bet this tournament and you’re only looking at the difference in like if it’s if if your guy is 35 to1 or he’s 31 to1 in the winter without market, like don’t have Scotty Sheoffller like break your heart. Like like don’t have Scotty Sheffler like ruin your tournament for you. Like like it’s four points. Just just eat it, you know? play play the winner without. Yeah, I think a couple um yeah, a couple I’m glad you asked me this question because I actually did play the winner without market this week. I did. Okay. Um and I don’t play it a ton. I I go back and forth. I think there are um I I think there are times where it can make sense to just load up more on your top five bet. You know, we don’t have eachway betting, right? We always talk about this. Um we’re usually covering our outrights with top five somehow. And I think that if you’re really that scared of Sheffler in a week, and I do think this is a week where you should be very scared of him. There’s only 69 players playing in this field. Um the we’ve seen him win with a lot more guys that he has to battle through, right? So um it’s not a market I would say I play often. I think in event like this, if I’m not looking to bet Sheffler, um I think it is smart to mix up how you’re attacking outrights. And what I did, Matt, because because we don’t have as many books straight up offering singular with or without Scotty Sheffller markets, it was only Caesars and MGM that I noticed here in town. You don’t have the you don’t have the option to compare as many prices, right, as you do with outrights. And the problem is is that you don’t find that perfect example you gave of a 35 to 31. You’re usually getting your legs chopped out from you a little bit more um with the winner without prices that I found at least. So, what I did was, and this is going to apply to, this applies to every outright bet I made. Every outright bet that I made this week, um, it’s not pure this pure of math, but just think about it that twothirds of my bet went into the outright and one-third went into a winner without. That’s probably what I’m That’s probably what I’m going to end up doing, too. Now, in the column that you’ll read at vis.com, and I think the regular readers know that there’s a winner without shuffler market, uh, but those of you that might be new to the program might not, of course, Kelly mentioned the books here in Vegas, but DraftKings typically offers this uh nationally as does, I believe, FanDuel. So, there are the winner without so there is that ability. So, in the column, I only gave in terms of the prices for for my outrights, the regular prices. I did not give the without, but what I’m probably going to end up doing, and I’ve proportioned these anyway at the end of the season, you know, we’re we’re getting obviously into football and everything going on. So, I proportion these smaller as deeper as we go into the season as well. So, I’m going to have a maybe a proportion on winter without and then some on the outrights that I’ve already bet. So, I will be adding some winner without stuff. Yeah, I think that that is a good way to do it as well. just kind of like if you wanted to mix it up, if you wanted to kind of I I would highly suggest at least getting somewhat creative with your bets, I can say like, you know, the the shorter the number, the less you get chopped off. I mean, uh, you know, Xander’s 18 to1, but he’s 14 to1 in the winner without. So, like, you know, like like little stuff like that. So, just um best I could find was 12 on him and maybe I just tipped off one of my bets, but best I could find was 12 on him. But I still bet it still bet it small. So, like somebody like Burger that’s 50 to1, you’re going to be getting like 30s and 35s in the without. Yeah. Is it that drastic? You’re right. Your point is is is right. It I just noticed at DraftKings I just happen to have that open in front of me and uh that was the cut off. Okay. Um real quick, can I add something real quick before we move on? Uh Rory sitting out. How how do you guys feel about it? I mean, they’ve given these guys that option, but I I feel like it kind of does delegitimize because Rory already he’s always like he’s won the FedEx Cup before, of course, numerous times. I think the most frequent winner of the FedEx Cup. So, he’s always kind of prioritized this like this is a really big accomplishment and people should give a damn about it. And then you miss the first event because you already know, well, I’m going to be at the tour championship anyway and they’re resetting the point. So, it’s like, you know, I I feel like it does kind of cut the, you know, what off of the playoffs and and and its importance. So, I’m not going to get on him too bad, but I feel like he should be in Memphis this week. I I kind of feel like he should be there, but then again, at the same time, if the if the goal is to win the whole thing and whatever, I you know, if he feels it’s best to not play like You don’t want to be hot down there in Memphis. But but by the way, it’s hot in Atlanta in two weeks, too. Rory, I understand it’s uncomfortable to say this, but like it’s always maximize maximize what you can do within the rules that you’re given, right? And this is week 18 of the NFL sitting your starters when everything is clinch. I don’t know why Rory sitting out didn’t make more people think, you know what, like the the the biggest goal here, you guys correct me if I’m wrong. I think the biggest goal here though is just to make sure you’re in the top 50. That’s gets you into every signature event next year. So, I’m not saying you need to skip multiple if you’re a Rory Mroy. That like that sucks. But man, if I was well inside that top 50, I would be thinking well really hard about skipping this first event to not possibly screw up what where my standing’s going to be. Well, and one other angle here too, and this is not to say that Rory is not generous with his philanthropic endeavors. He’s certainly I think proven to be over the years, but it is FedEx St. Jude. So, it’s St. Jude’s Children’s Hospital, which is based in Memphis, and the charity has always been a huge part of this event, even though now it’s a playoff event, not just a standalone regular tournament on the tour schedule. So, there is a little bit of that, too, where it’s like, you know, I don’t want to be because that’s what they do. They have all the kids from the children’s hospitals and and all that at on the grounds and you know it it does it does kind of it is kind of a bad look I guess from a strategic standpoint it’s probably smart but it’s a bad look. Yeah it’s you heard it here first. Wes Rynold says on you heard it here first. Wes Reynolds says on Long Shots podcast Roy doesn’t like kids. So there it is. You heard it. Rory says f them kids. Yeah, you heard it right here. Breaking news. Wes Wes Reynolds says Roy doesn’t like kids. No no it’s a step further. Wes Reynolds doesn’t like sick kids. Even worse. Even worse. Even worse, poor brother. Oh, boy. Oh, brother. See See if you can get a drink the next time you’re in Memphis. Huh? Yeah. He He’s not He’s not going to uh take my question at the next press. All right. So, I I didn’t mean to derail this whole thing. I just think I think it’s interesting. And for much as we talk about this with like the NBA and NFL and stuff, man, I I I I think they’re going to have to address this. Like I know I I almost feel bad for the PGA Tour at this point that they have to like think about changing this every single year, but like sorry, every year you change something. You create a new wave of issues you didn’t really foresee. I can understand that. But something I think something’s going to have to be changed up here because if I was sitting 32nd in the standings right now, I would not be playing this week. Yeah. No, I’m with you. I I don’t you know it’s a it’s it’s unfortunate but yes I mean like you said Kelly you you’re profession it’s this is nothing new right professional athletes gamblers whatever like you you you go to the maximum amount within the rules that are provided for you and you know that’s that’s where we’re at with all this. Okay let’s get to the stats that matter here. for West Reynolds. We know uh like you said, pretty decent sample size of this course. So, we have a decent idea of what it takes to have success here. So, how it just comes down to how heavily you decided to weight all of that stuff. Uh what did you go with and how heavily did you weight it? Well, approach is a very good starting point here considering four of the last seven winners here third or better during their winning week. So approach if you want to go in the proximity it’s like 2/3 from anywhere from 125 to 200 which wedge range to kind of like short middle irons you know maybe from like wedge to like seven irons here basically. So 125 to 150 150 to 75 175 200 or if you just want to combine them all together to get some numbers. So that from the approach standpoint in terms of driving this week uh I took a little different approach. I did not go with SG OTT, strokes getting off the tea. I went a little bit with total driving because I think distance, you can cut some of these dog legs because I think there are 12 dog legs of the 18 holes on this layout, but the fairways are narrow. So, you still kind of got to be accurate, too, but distance will help. So, I did a little total driving. I also did fairways hit percentage, and that could be fairways gained depending on what stat site you may use. Uh, it’s a little more difficult to find fairways. Like I said, 27 yards on average. So, you got narrow landing zones and you still got to play a little bit of positional golf. This isn’t something where it’s just like grip it and rip it and overpower and overpower the course necessarily. And if you look at the previous winners, by the way, of these events, pretty damn good ball strikers with the irons. Hideki Matsyama, Lucas Glover, Zatatoris, Thomas, uh, uh, uh, DJ Daniel Burgerer. Like you could look at the previous winners and say, “Okay, approach play has been really important and your irons really end up deciding this thing.” But getting back to the tea, I did some good drives gained as well. Uh for guys that are going to miss some of these fairways because these fairways and greens are so small. You’re going to miss some of them even if you’re striking the hell out of the ball and doing very well. So there are some times you’re going to have to try to reach the green out of this rough. And good drive percentage, I think, really uh measures that. So it’s not just hitting the fairways for good drives. uh uh opportunities gain because the Greens, as Kelly mentioned earlier, pretty forgiving here. Not not a lot to them. Not a lot of uh of uh I think uh not really a lot of undulations or or any or anything to these greens. So, uh pretty straightforward. So, opportunities gained I think is important. Uh scrambling could be a little bit important here. It’s some of the smaller greens on tour. So, you are going to have to scramble in order to save pars. Three of the last six winners here, by the way, led the field in scrambling during their winning weeks. And then uh also did stroke skating par4 450 to 500 because six of the par4s of the 12 par4s I should say on the layout are between that. And then I did putting for a tiebreaker, but I don’t think you want to do much putting this week. So you’d go stroke game putting Bermuda greens. These are straightforward like I was like I was saying uh not a lot of complexities to these greens. Kelly, I did something just uh just to kind of like do a little bit of comparison stuff here. So, to create a mixed condition model, I kind of wanted to see who has been good all season and then who’s coming in hot and then if there’s any consistency of people who have just been good all year long. And so, I I made a model and this isn’t necessarily this Yeah. Yeah. I made a model that isn’t necessarily the one that I made the bets off of, but I went in and like the the categories that I really liked. So, I went tea to green, off the tea, approach, short game, total driving, good drive percentage, uh, distance from the edge of the fairway, birdie or better, and bogey avoidance, right? And then I went in and did it over the last six months. And then I went in and did it over the last 24 rounds. The last six months takes us back to February, which is basically kind of the beginning of the season. It also includes the Florida swing, which I think is uh something I certainly wanted to look at uh as comparison for for uh this. We’re getting back into the south. We’re getting back into the humidity. We’re getting back into the Bermuda greens, the things like that and whatnot. And I just evenly weighted it all the way through just to kind of see what what the the results were from all of that. And then I also just went over to Rick’s site and did the the typical modeling stuff that I do over there as well. Most of the stuff that Wes said, I think I went a little bit more uh driver heavy though than than Weston. I have off the tea. I have distance. I have uh total driving um I have good drive percentage in there um as well. And then on the from an approach standpoint is I didn’t put buckets. I didn’t put whatever. Uh, opportunities gain is basically, you know, it’s basically an approach statistic because you’re giving yourself an opportunity um to to make a birdie and stuff. And so I kind of split approach between that and opportunities gained for me for the model. And that’s how kind of how I went about it this week. But I think a little bit more driver heavy maybe than than Wes did. Yeah, I I’ll rattle through mine pretty quick as you guys are sounds like all three of us are relatively similar. Um, I I I I don’t know if I heard any of you guys bring this up, but kind of similar thinking, I guess, Matt, of just I don’t really care how you’ve gotten it done, but how have you gotten it done to get to this point? So, I actually looked at te to green stuff a little bit more just general uh overall than I usually do. Um, so factored that in and then basically everything off the tea that you mentioned, just strokes gained off the tea, driving distance, and then accuracy. accuracy and good drive stats and fairways and good drives um is what I looked at. Approach opportunities gained. I did sprinkle some of those buckets. I didn’t go too heavy though. I actually just focused mainly on the 125 to like 175 proximity. Um the par4s 450 to 500. I did that light. Um and then scrambling around the green, bogey avoidance, birdie or better and strokes gain putting just pure strokes gain putting like you talked about uh Wes. All of those very minor, but all the but I would say all the ball striking uh metrics were at 70 plus% of my modeling this week. Yeah, I think our models are going despite the fact that we didn’t maybe weight everything exactly the same. I think our models are probably going to look fairly similar given the stat profile of the golfer that we’re going for everybody. Well, Kelly, what what Yeah, I was going to So, what what did your spit out? And just as we’re kind of like running through this, so top three and one of these guys I didn’t Well, okay, one of the guys I didn’t play, his name’s Scotty Sheffler. Um, top three pretty consistently were Sheffller and I took everything from last 12 to last 24 rounds, kind of sorted through and looked at different pulled up different models. That’s kind of how I usually do this and then see where everybody’s rated out at. Um, it was one, two, three, Sheffller one, and then a mix of two three with Russell Henley and Victor Hofflin. And I had I had I had Henley in my top in my top three as well. Uh, uh, Straa, Scotty, of course, number one. Straa, by the way, ended up number two this week for me. Really interesting. Yeah. So, yeah. Uh, Havlin nowhere near for me, actually. Havlin, the closest Havlin was, let me click through here, 18th. So, I don’t I don’t I don’t know what you weighed to get old Havland up there, but uh yeah, didn’t didn’t get there for me. Well, it’s the approach stuff, right? It’s it’s he’s been his irons have been out of [ __ ] control here recently. I ended up with two, by the way, because of a lot of the proximity buckets because he was up there in all of them. So, good. Having weighed them, that’s what put him so high where he is, he might be probably I think at a traditional model somewhere like maybe bottom half of like the top 10. Yeah, Matt. A good call. Good call by Wes. So that what a few things that I heard me and Wes enter that stroke. The par4 is 450 to 500. Victor is one in and then 125 to 150. He’s seventh in and 150 to 175 he’s 10th in. Yeah, I guess that could be Yeah, I mean I guess that that could certainly be it. So for me um and this, you know, can kind of like lead to a some of the best for me because again, like I said, I put in distance not heavily at all. I went way more with with uh good drive percentage and and even just a little bit more on the me too on the total driving stuff than than I did driving pure distance. But at least I did play a factor and then a matter of fact I only put in 5% on driving distance in the model. So you know a very very small percentage of it all. But mine went from an average perspective I averaged the three different ones together. Sheffller, Burger, Fleetwood, Straka, Lowry, Connors, Henley, Morawa, Goddarup, Kittyama is my top 10 on average of the three of the three models. So, um, which again lets you know how good some of those dudes are in all of the other [ __ ] because most of those dudes are not long off the tea. Like, most of those guys are not very long off the tea at all. So that lets you know just how outstanding they have been in all of the other stuff, you know, um with all of that. So anyhow, uh that’s how the models went out. Wes, what ended up in on the card for you, buddy? Yeah, somebody didn’t model at the top, but this this card is a little bit of a mix of gut, model, and market. So we’re going to start with gut here. Cameron Yan, of course, broke his losing streak last week to be the thousandth different winner on the PGA Tour, uh, winning in Greensville last week. So, who’s going to be 1001? If anybody,00 Yeah, I saw a tweet that said 1,000 career different players have won on the PGA Tour. So, who’s going to be 1001? Why not Tommy Fleetwood to do the same this week? Why not? Let’s add the uh the European Cameron Young who’s broken by heart. He’s number three in the average over the average of the models for me. So he does that. Cameron Young beats Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff. This is Oh jeez. Boy, that’d be more that’d be more salt in the wound. It’s just like just so cruel. I’ll you know, I’ll just hand you my money. You don’t have to like kick me in the you know what. Uh I’ll just give you the money. But uh you he doesn’t have as many runner-up finishes as Young. He does have four on the PJ tour plus that silver medal uh over there at the 2024 Olympic Games. uh seventime DP World Tour winner. Kelly and I benefited when he kind of gagged on the 18th hole. Kind of gagged. He did gag on the 18th hole to give helped give Keegan the victory at the Travelers. So, I think he’s kind of owed one. And he’s got some history here, too. Third two years ago, fourth in 2019. Ball striking heavy course. I think that he he really should fit this place. So, Tommy Fleetwood, I’m not getting a bargain on the price. I feel like I should be getting in the 30s, but I took 25 to one. So, now we’ll go to the 30s. a guy that did profile very high for Kelly and I Russell Henley at 30 to1. He’s actually I looked he has only played five PGA Tour events since the Masters. Yeah. But he’s pretty much with the exception of the PGA he’s played well in all of them. Top 10 at the US Open, top 10 at the Open Championship, runner up at the Travelers, co-runner up with Fleetwood to Keegan by the way and fifth at the Memorial. And he’s got a couple top seven finishes here 2016 2023. He’s also a fairway finder. So if you use fairways gained or good drives, he’s going to profile high for you. Historically, he is at his best on the Bermuda. So Russell Henley, I think could go very well here. And I he’s one of those guys that I think most assuredly is on the RDER Cup team. So Russell Henley 30 to1. And then a guy that I think is on but maybe could use a good showing here, uh Colin Marawa 33, 34, 35 to1. I think there’s various prices in the market. I mentioned Mark Urbanac who was with Tony Fee now the last several years is now on Marawa’s bag. I think this is Caddyy number four. Kelly, you might be right. It might be number five. I’m trying to cycle through them all in my head here. Hold on. I’ll find it. Yeah, because he had his brother. I I I think or I thought he had his brother for one. I know he had Billy Foster and then he had uh uh his original guy. So, uh while you go through that, he hadn’t played poorly. If you really look at his 2025, he was runner up at the opener at the Sentry. He was runner up at the Arnold Palmer, but he’s been inconsistent. He missed straight cuts overseas on the links at the Scottish in the open. But I’m willing to dismiss that a little bit because this is where I’m playing market. If you’ve listened to us or watched long shots all year, you’ll notice that Marawa’s price has been in the high teens, low 20s pretty much all season, even in fields with Scotty Sheffler. And now you’re seeing him in the mid30s. I think I’m gonna buy the dip here. I I I just I I just think that even though he had doesn’t have the win equity, I feel like the numbers just a bit high in what is a limited field no cut field with 70 players. Uh he’s going to be likely on the RDER Cup team. I think with his body of work and his experience, uh I would put him in in the 90 percentile and not quite at 100% just yet. So he could use a good showing I think over the next week or two. I think he might get it here on what is a ball striker course and his approach numbers are obviously still stellar. Uh I wasn’t going to play this guy, but I feel like this is a FOMO play and it was between him or Fitzpatrick, so I chose Victor Havlin instead. Runner up in Memphis last year. By the way, when you just look at the pure rankings on the PGA Tour this season, Scotty Sheffler obviously number one on approach. Number two, Victor Havlin, though. not and uh you know a little bit of distance but pretty damn good ball striking numbers he and approach numbers he won at Inennisbrook in the Valpar which I think has some correlation to this event and he won when he was on inconsistent form remember he drifted to like 70 to1 that week it was like that’s an absurd price for that guy his talent of course I didn’t have the foresight to bet him but I digress uh ability to win on these strategic ball striking heavy courses that are treeine so Victor Havlin 35 and then a couple more separ to one fourth on this field on approach. Gains in proximity and that’s why he modeled so high for me is because he gains in all the buckets this week particularly with the wedges 125 to 150 150 to 175. 12 top team 15 finishes got a victory at the MX which we got at 60 to1 earlier this year and also at the Truis the week before the PGA runner up here in 2022. who remember he was in that playoff with Will Salatis when Will Sales had been coming close and not winning on the PGA tour and uh and then finally won his first event. Hopefully he is uh recovering from his surgery and is back on tour soon. But Sepraka 45 to1 and then kind of Mr. Memphis uh uh uh not quite Jerry the King Lawler or Elvis Presley level in Memphis, but Daniel Berger’s had some success in this city. a two-time winner 2016 2017 has only finished outside the top five once in five visits. Cooled a little bit it recently from the earlier hot form, but top 10 in approach, top 10 in fairways hit, top 10 in good drive percentage, top 10 in scrambling, second in the field for total driving. Just, you know, he’s on the outside. I don’t want to say just on the outside. He’s on the outside looking in, I think, for the RDER Cup team. But this is a guy maybe there’s maybe that one guy that gets hot that steals a spot at the end. It could be Daniel Burgerer. This is a good a venue and as good a time as any for him. So Daniel Burgerer 50 to1. Kelly Bidlin uh winning up on your card. Alrighty. Um Wes, how did you set that up? The uh the the by the model, by the gut, and by the number because I think I check all those boxes this week as well. Um, yeah, Gut Gut was Fleetwood and and and Morawa was Market just on a price and then and Gut was also Havlin and then like Straa Burger and uh Henley for me were kind of like model plays that just really liked what I saw in the stats. Yeah, I I I like I liked how you set that up because I actually think I that applies to me all those this week as well. So I I mentioned how high Havland rated out for me this week. He was consistently top five. Ah, I kind of like you just teed it up, uh, Wes that you had a choice at the end. Kind of did the same. Decided to go another direction. I just played Victor in a top 20, which which, you know, we take if we take things back a couple years, that feels very appropriate. That’s how we were betting him all the time. So, uh, Victor Havlin top 20. I mean, just the approach numbers are insane. I mean, the rest of it, the rest of the bag kind of concerns me, but man, I just take away the open and it was 12 straight tournaments, I believe, of heavy heavy obaining on approach. Finished T2 here last year. I know you said that. So, uh I I played a top 20 on him and moved on. That’s where I left it at. And then I I’m going to go a little bit backwards here. I did play Tommy Fleetwood as well. The only market I played him in though, top 20, uh, I laid it I laid minus 15 with 50 with Fleetwood and just loaded up there. I I think with a field of 69 guys, I don’t know if he can go out and win this thing as we’ve become accustomed to with Tommy Fleetwood, but biggest bet of the tournament for me is a top 20 on Tommy on Tommy Fleetwood. So, uh, went with those. All right, now I’m going to go backwards because outright it all kind of scales down from there. Uh, outright started the card Xander Schoffley played him 18 to1. Uh look, last 16 round, eighth on off the tea, fourth on approach, third in distance, fourth in opportunities gained. The recent results are there. We know he came was coming off that injury to start the year. The ball striking is maybe I you know, I guess we’d like to see a little bit more consistency, but with what he’s done with the club head speed this year, this about as good as it’s ever been with Sander. I really think I think I said this a couple months ago. I I’ll stand by it. Like I think this dude wins before the year’s out and we we’re running out of tournaments for him to do that in. So I think I’ll probably be on Xander every week here. Um Matt, do you want to jump in there? I have that ticket from like whatever, you know, I have that. Me, too. They don’t. Yeah. Okay. I’m glad you brought this up numbers. Glad you brought this up. So, how are you guys attacking that this week? Because this is a thing every year, right? Like Wes, are you betting to win the FedEx Cup? Are you are you making those bets on every outright that you bet this week? I am not necessarily. Uh I have a little bit of trouble with that market because even without this now without the starting strokes, it’s obviously going to be a little bit more fair this time. So, it’s not going to be like Scotty Sheffller minus money when he has such a big gap because they do, by the way, quadruple the points in all of these events. So, you’re not getting the typical if you look at your point distribution uh table or grid, you’re not getting the same that you would get even in like a signature event or a major. Like, they’re really influenced on the playoffs. So, they quadruple the points this week. So, theoretically, they want to make it possible for everybody to have a chance, even the guys like the the Matty Schmid that got like the last spot in the points last week at the Windom. So, that’s what they’re trying to do. So, it’s a little bit different than if you’ve been playing that market in recent years. Yeah. I mean, good point. I I guess I guess I guess with that, Matt, though, tech technically, it does make that a little less valuable to get in on it earlier that uh early like we did because you don’t get you you’re hoping to wind up with a guy that maybe has that starting stroke lead, right? And then and then that’s you’ve got that sweet number on him. But whatever. I’m already in on Xander and Tony Fenow. So, enjoy my money on that one, Caesars. Um, okay. Xander outright, winner without, and top five. This is how I bet these guys uh that I did at the top of the board. Did Xander split them up between the outright, the winner without Sheffler, and a top five on him. Um, also did that with Ludvig Goldberg. You did, you talked about going between Fitzpatrick and Victor, uh, Wes. I did that. I was doing that with Ludvig and Victor. Uh, I decided to go, you know what, Ludvig’s been the a little bit more incon uh more consistent here the past couple tournaments with his ball striking numbers. I think this course could set up well for him and almost anytime he drifts out to 30 to1. I think I want to be in on him. So, enjoy the two water balls on Sunday and he falls off and like finishes T 30. So, just enjoy enjoy the two water balls on Sunday and like yeah, it’ll be that’ll be fun. Accuracy is an issue with him off the tea. There’s no doubt about that. So yeah, I’m glad you torture decide to torture yourself this week. So enjoy enjoy the two that’s also part of the betting process, right? I’d rather sink more money on a Victor Havlin top 20 ticket that I feel a little bit more secure with him being around for most of the weekend. And Ludvig, who has been inconsistent this season, I’m trying to catch catch that what catch the falling knife sort of thing, whatever, however they say that. So Ludvig, I went outright winner without top five. didn’t go any deeper with him on that as far as spending money. U the two guys that I played the most on this week overall, Russell Henley and Matt Fitzpatrick. I’m not going away from Fitz. This is he didn’t land I don’t know if you noticed this uh Wes, those prox proximity buckets like weren’t exactly I guess his bread and butter because he he rates pretty far down on those uh for me. However, we’ve been talk I’ve been talking about him at least for the past three weeks here, three tournaments that he’s played. It’s just he’s getting it done everywhere. I mean, the ball striking has been really damn impressive. I the putting in short game success is not all that new for Fitzpatrick, but man, what he is doing off the tea and on approach right now is really, really, really good. He hasn’t finished worse. I mean, he’s got what, four straight top eight finishes. Go back, it’s five if you want to go back to the Travelers and make T17 or better. He’s just on absolute fire. I’m going to keep uh keep playing him. I played him in outright outright winner without and then went heavier on a top 10 with Fitzpatrick at two to one. I did the exact same thing than with Russell Henley. So Henley outright, Henley winner without and Henley heavier in a top 10 market uh as well. I really like Henley. I didn’t I I was trying to figure out how much to ladder those down into different markets, but just decided to go heavy on a top 10 with him. It fits there. So again, that’s everything. I’ll go through it one more time. Outrights and winner without Xander, Henley, Fitzpatrick, and Oberg. Top fives then on Schoffley and Oberg. Top tens on Henley and Fitzpatrick. Top 20s on Fleetwood and Havlin. And absolutely zero tournament matchups for me so far. And I don’t think I’m going to add any cuz I don’t know about you guys, but there’s like there’s like a lot of good golfers in this tournament. So, it was really hard to find matchups that stuck out. You know, it’s kind of weird. Like you get to the playoffs and it’s just good golf. There there’s there’s one matchup I really wanted to play and actually it involves a guy you’re just talking about there. It’s available offshore right now. I’m hoping one of the one of the domestics puts it up but they have Fitzpatrick going against Ludvig. I know you’re on Ludvig. I am not at all. I think this is a horrible horrible layout for Ludvig Goldberg actually. Um and so I would love to go up against him with Fitzpatrick. It’s available offshore right now. It is not uh here stateates side. So maybe one of the books ends up putting it up, but that’s the one that I was really trying to uh to get down on. I have Fitzpatrick as a huge favorite in a head-to-head against Ludvig. So that’s the one I would like to try to get into the account if at all possible. I very very heavily considered being the boring guy coming in here and saying, “I put $1,000 on Scotty Sheffler. There’s my bet. I’m out of here.” Um I was really close to doing that. I think he probably wins this tournament. I I mean, if if what this course demands, he is just he’s just better than everybody. I mean, he’s just better than everybody at at all of these things. I mean, like I told y’all that I made that mixed model, right, of over the course of the of the season since February and then over the last 24 rounds. So basically you have the entire season of golf excluding the Hawaii stuff and then you have what’s happened over the last six tournaments. Ta green first. Ta green first. So like this will go this will go all season last 24 rounds. Ta green first in the field. Uh T green first in the field. Off the tea second. Off the tea fourth. Approach first. Approach first. Short game second. Short game eighth. Total driving second, total driving 13th. So get it together, Scotty. 13th in the field. Uh hopefully he’s rusty, right? Yeah. Yeah. Good drives 10, good drives 14th. So again, that probably goes in with the whole total driving stuff or whatever. Distance from the edge of the fairway eighth, birdie or better second, bogey avoidance first. You get the picture. He is better than everybody over the course of the whole season. He’s better than most everybody over the course of the last 24 rounds at every single category that we put in for this golf tournament. So, I was very very close to firing the single bullet and walking away. If you’re in a DFS state, I might drive down to the border and just like make a hundred Scotty Sheffler like teams or something and then just like rotate it with these guys that we’re saying we like and stuff, but ended up not going that direction. I’m going to end up regretting it. Um, I played Henley as well. I played Straa as well. I told y’all how the my models averaged out. So, that’s probably no surprise to you. They were very, very high in the models for me. So, all the stuff that that Kelly and Wes have said about both of those guys all apply to me for Henley and for Straa. I didn’t get the 30 that Wes got on Henley. I got 27, but I did get the 45 on Straka. So, 27 on Henley, 45 on Straka. Um, you know who else modeled out very well for me is Ben Griffin. And I know it’s like, how much can this keep going on and how long can this guy keep doing it? And I get all of that and but I mean, he’s been doing it all year long. It is it is a it is something, you know, maybe he figured something out. I mean, look, we’ve seen it with with with golfers from time to time. Like, I’m not betting on Ben Griffin probably long term. Like, I wouldn’t be buying a bunch of stock in Ben Griffin. like if we’re talking about what’s going to happen next year and the year after that. Um but he sure figured something out right now. And sometimes when your swing is just working, it can just work for a little while. And so Ben Griffin at 40 to1 checks basically all the damn boxes, which is like something I did not think I’d be saying as we got to playoff time. So yeah, I put in on Ben Griffin. Yeah, I did. I’m just staring at it, Matt. Like I you know, you guys know I did this a couple weeks with God up and like I’m kind of kind of was kind of beating myself earlier. I didn’t do go right back to it where I’m like you, you know, like if you’re not even as bullish as Matt, like you just want to ride the hot hand, throw in a top 20 on Ben Griffin at even money this week. Like it’s I I 41 sweet, right? But like I if you want to just ride the hot hand and get get a you think this guy’s going to continue to have quality finishes, scoop up the I don’t want to say easy money, but God, the way that the way that him and God areup have been in these grooves here over the past few months, it’s just I I hear you, man. I’m not going to knock you at all for going right back to them. Yeah, y’all read uh y’all heard me read Off the Model a little bit earlier. So, uh going to be no surprise to you that I am also on uh Corey Connors. I am also on Shane Lowry. Uh both of those guys inside the top seven in the model for me. uh if we talk about the stuff that we really like and we think that this course is going to demand. If you want to talk about getting into the fairway, giving yourself a chance to have good approach shots, Cory Connor’s third in this field in fairways gained. The guy is just a fairway finder. If you go in and you look, you might be shocked to find that he’s actually 18th in total driving in this field. He’s not a long guy at all. So that lets you know how good he is from an accuracy standpoint. when you combine that with him being 53rd in driving distance uh in the field. So that ought to give you a really good idea of of kind of where he stands with all of that. I want dudes that give themselves chances to make birdies as well. Opportunities gained. Shane Lowry, you wouldn’t think about that, but that’s where he is at as well. Shane Lowry 11th in this field in total driving despite being 62nd in driving distance in this field. So that lets you know again when you add in the accuracy aspect to all of this how good Shane Lowry is and bogey avoidance and you know that comes into avoiding you you know different courses bring different challenges and that you know that brings in you know avoiding pot bunkers that is avoiding you know hitting it into the woods that is avoiding free play the water and all the different like that here we are Shane Lowry second overall in this field in bogey avoidance only to yeah you know Scotty Sheffller you knew that anyway but like this is just something for for me if these dudes can go like I just want the chance that these that someone’s not going to piss it away right and like so if don’t go hit it into the water twice and just completely lose your chance and like Shane Lowry from an accuracy standpoint with the tea from not making bogeies and all of that and and honestly like we said probably more than we even think about gives himself opportunities to to make birdies. Uh Shane Lowry is going to round out the card for me. So Henley, Griffin, uh Straka, Connors, Lowry for me. By the way, you can find Shane Lowry as long as 66 to one out there in the market right now. I think that is a ridiculously disrespectful number to a dude. Like we said, if we value what we say we value in this tournament, um that number is just crazy to me. He was in my top 10 for from a model standpoint. So that is a very high number. I agree with you, Matt. That is also not the first time we have said that about that golfer on this podcast this year. Yeah. Yeah. No, I know I’ve said it at least once. I think it’s been a couple times where I’m like, dude, these Lowry odds just do not match up. Yeah. And we’ll, you know, look, we’ll we’ll see if he can put it all together. I mean really the the biggest thing about Shane Lowry and anyone that watches watches a bunch of golf just knows it’s like three of the things work and one of them doesn’t, right? It’s like it’s just kind of like and that’s been his biggest problem. And so if he can put it all together though, I think he is a dude that can really really make a run here. Um the the last time he was green across the board, he was second at the truest, right? I mean, like it’s just like if he can put it all together, he’s going to be there at the very very top. and and uh that’s kind of what we’re looking for here out of uh out of Shane Lowry. So that that’s the card for me. I will go ahead and say this one last time. I think Scotty Shuffler wins the tournament. Like I mean I I I know it’s like boring to say. I know it like he’s just that much better than everybody. And on a course that on a on a course that No, I’m just saying on a course that like on a course that that one shot can like just completely crater your whole tournament. Like he just doesn’t control one shot. Yeah. I mean, it’s like he he’s not he’s not going to be the ball. He’s not going to be the guy standing on one of the holes with with six holes left who hits it in the W. He’s not going to do it. Like he just he just does not do that. I mean, I’m not that worried about like Russell Henley doing that either, but like Russell Henley can’t hit it as far as Scotty Sheffler then either. So, you could Yes. Yes. You cannot. Oh, wait. I got a question. So, we all three What’s the pod play? Henley. We’re all three on Henley because I have a Henley question, right? So, you did you did play you did you so you played Henley outright as well? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. And honestly, probably my strongest the guy I feel strongest about this week I think is Russell Henley. So, I I want to ask you guys this question cuz Wes, you brought this up. Um, I think the only reason I held back from adding even more more money and maybe even another market or two with Henley was was the lack of tournaments that he’s played. Yeah. Um, and then his position of where he’s at in the rankings and is it just like I don’t I don’t I hate to play mind games with these guys, but if we’re already skipping this, we’re going back to that whole conversation. Like does Henley just feel like he’s so comfortably inside like I just got to go out there and put together a an okay week and I’m good? Like that concerns me a little bit and and just the lack of golf that he’s played just I did find weird as well. Like Wes I noticed that same thing as I was going through his season. I was like this feels like very little golf for him. And I was looking at the grid too. Uh like JJ Spawn’s not a guy that’s played a lot lately too. Uh uh played Memorial won the US Open. uh traveler, Scottish, and then the Open Championship like like Scotty has actually played somewhat frequently ever since he won the PGA, played at the Schwab. He’s based in that area, the Memorial, US Open, Travelers, Scottish, and the Open Championship. Russell Henley did not play the Scottish, uh nor did he play the Charles Schwab, but that’s the differences because they were right there lined up on this grid I was looking at. So, yeah, some of these guys have played a little bit more. some of these most of the top end guys over the last like 12 weeks which is three months I think have predominantly played like seven events. Yeah, I don’t know if I really had a question in there or not, Matt, but it was just that was something that a little bit held me back from going a little bit harder on uh on Henley because I he was he’s my favorite bet this week. He’s my favorite bet. Okay. Yeah. I um I think the only big differing opinion I have from you guys is is is Havlin. Like I said, he he didn’t even come close to being a consideration for for me this week. I if you go and look short like strokes gain short game at this course is exponentially more important than it is on a typical tour event. It is actually the ninth most important uh thing at the St. Jude historically where it is like it like 15th on the tour average like as far as like uh uh uh importance in a typical tournament and so his short game numbers are atrocious still um he’s still figured that out. He had a pitiful year pitching here, right? Wasn’t this one of his like alltime bad pitching grounds? Uh yeah, because uh this is a I mean, you know, he’s he’s usually a little bit better out of like punching out of like thick stuff, right? But he’s not good in terms of like tight lies. Yeah. And and the like here. So it’s kind of like combo he’s lost on lost in four or five years around the green. But yeah. Yeah. So that just really kind of got me off of of him. I was actually trying to I was actually trying to find ways to attack him actually in the headto-head market, but there’s no nothing’s appealing. Like they have him up against Spath and I’m like I mean back and speed. We I think we all did I think we all did that once or twice this year and yeah I don’t really want to like I don’t like him this week, but I don’t I don’t I don’t dislike him that much, you know? Like I don’t I’m not going to go I’m not backing Jordan Spie against him. I am trying to look up somebody hit Spiff like in a matchup market. I’m trying to see uh on my screen here who who he was matched up again that I thought was really curious that that that kept me off. I’m I’m I’m trying to find it. I I may not we may not be able to do it uh before we uh run out of time. Breaking golf news coming down I can report on uh that people that people listen to nine hours later in their car driving to work tomorrow, but you know, whatever. Um Rory Maroyy’s absence in playoff event has officials quote concern. And this is an ESPN article according to Peter Peter Malady about Yes. concerned and stuff in the works to uh keep this from happening again is basically Yes. So there we go. They do need to fix something because I would I mean are you kidding me? If I was in this event if I was locked in number 32. See you. Kelly’s taking a week off. I’ll go get ready for the next one. Lock me in. Give me that money for them signature events next year. That’s all I care about. Yeah. He’s probably I mean he’s probably playing just like short par threes inside his like 60,000 square foot house that he’s got or whatever, you know, like he’s just like Yeah, he’s playing like little 50 yard par three course anyway. So maybe he’s the first maybe he’s the first one to design the Midland indoor golf league, which is uh I don’t think I’ve ever explained it on this podcast, but if you think about a parking garage, just like an elevator system, the holes just go up. They just go up and you just you just go up. Just build it up, Matt. You don’t have to build it out. You just build it up. The big the the the bigle. The bigle. The big biddling indoor golf. The bigle. There you go. The bigle. There you go. The big. There you go. Just you just take an elevator up to every hole, man. Just air conditioning. Living the life. That’s what I’m talking about. That’s what Matt Brown’s going to be getting me playing golf again. Yeah. I got to get you out, man. We got to get going. If if Von Frinkles out there, I got to get you out there. Come on. Like you Yeah. No, I already talked to him about it the other day. I was like, you guys have fun. You take Matt Brown, you guys have a great time. Uh guys, it is uh definitely still golf season, but also we know football season’s right around the corner. We’ve already had a preseason game. We got more coming this week. And also over on von.com dropping today, Tuesday, August the 5th. A couple of different very fun things over there. The college football betting guide drops today. So go in, be sure and take a look at that. I personally think it is the most valuable thing that we do at the network with the transfer portal that is now a very very big part of the off seasonason. You don’t have any idea who plays where and what they’re going on and what the depth charts look like and all the stuff like that, but we have a bunch of different people working on that to help you out. It’s a great way to get prepared for the college football season. So, go in and look at that over at von.com. And also premiering tonight, uh, Circus Survivor Quest for 14.2 $2 million documentary 10-p part series going and looking behind the scenes of the biggest legal sports contest in the world right there at Circa and uh it goes all the way down to the very end following all of the winners along the way and and getting interviews with those guys and all of that. It’s a really cool deal. Episodes 1 to five today on the site. Episodes 6 to 10 will be next week next week over on the site as well. So, couple of good things going on over at von.com today as well. And of course, you can get Wes’s write up and all of our plays over on the picks page. vs von.com/pick for Kelly for Wes. I am Matt. Good luck on all your St. Jude bets. I timed it so perfect. Come on. What’s going on? Why are we lagging? There we Oh, now the volume’s not up. Get it together, Ben. Now you’re going to start your own golf league. Oh, boy. Can’t even play a video. Right. If you if you would have just if you would have closed out the Pornhub page, then this thing would have fired on time. God damn it. Pornhub slowing down another computer. Got to move to