Prime Minister will meet his US counterpart facing mounting pressure domestically over Gaza
As Sir Keir Starmer made his obligatory circuit at the No 10 drinks laid on for the Westminster press pack this week, he spoke of the importance of his ministers and MPs getting at least some days off during the summer recess.
After a gruelling first year in power, one that has seen the Labour Government’s popularity fall off a cliff, there is an overarching sense that a break will do all within Whitehall some good.
But before Starmer can even consider donning his swim suit, he must pay a visit to Donald Trump, who is squeezing in a little Scottish sojourn of his own, with a trip to his two luxury golf courses on the east and west coasts of Scotland this weekend.
What was meant to be a “private” trip to allow the US President to play a few rounds of golf with his Maga pals has, at the behest of the White House, morphed into a formal bilateral between the UK and US leaders.
Starmer is expected to fly straight from the Women’s European Championship final in Switzerland on Sunday into Scotland in order to hold what has become an increasingly important set of talks with Trump for the Prime Minister.
As The i Paper revealed on Thursday, Starmer is expected to raise what he himself described as the “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza, as he comes under mounting pressure from his own Cabinet and MPs to do more to isolate Israel over its actions.
Starmer’s daunting tightrope
But as ever when dealing with the US President, the Prime Minister faces a daunting tightrope walk as he attempts to meet the growing demands of his Labour colleagues on the issue – and increasingly public opinion – while keeping relations with the notoriously erratic Trump on an even keel.
Most keenly, Starmer is under growing pressure, including from his Foreign Secretary David Lammy as well as his own MPs, to follow the French and formally recognise the Palestinian state.
In itself this would have little impact on the ground, but would have immense diplomatic and symbolic repurcussions. Not least of these, is irritating – possibly angering – a President Starmer simply has to keep onside for the sake of the economy and security.
Starmer is expected to spell out to Trump what the UK’s options are when it comes to Israel and Gaza ahead of his Monday meeting with the President, as the worsening situation in the region has precipitated a hardening of No 10’s stance towards Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
UK toughening its stance
Downing Street issued words on Thursday that demonstrated a toughening of Starmer’s language, particularly on recognising the state of Palestine, which he described as an “inalienable right”.
But already there are doubts within Whitehall as to what the Prime Minister can realistically achieve.
“I think it feels like we’re at the limits of what we can actually do,” one minister sighed this week. “Even if Trump aligns with what we do, and even if we end up recognising a Palestinian state, Netanyahu is not going to fall into line. He’s just so boxed in now, and every day that continues is just a disaster.”
There is pessimism within No 10 as to how successful Starmer will be when it comes to changing Trump’s position on Israel, which one insider described as having “hardened” in recent weeks.
The collapse of the peace talks between the US, Israel and Hamas on Thursday has only made the UK’s task to help improve the humanitarian crisis even more challenging.
Police outside the perimeter of Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire, ahead of the US President’s arrival to begin his five-day private trip to the country (Photo: Robert Perry/PA Wire)
But Starmer and his aides know that the more pictures of emaciated children that are beamed into the homes of Britons, the greater the clamour will be for him to take action.
Throw into the mix a new left-wing party spearheaded by Jeremy Corbyn, which will put Palestine at the top of its agenda, and the political headache for the Labour leader is plain to see.
France’s decision to formally recognise the Palestinian state has added further pressure onto Starmer to do the same, something Washington condemned as “reckless”.
The UK is widely expected to follow suit, despite the diplomatic sensitivities, but No 10 is aware it must be done at the right moment in order for it to have its greatest effect.
‘Lack of ego’
In the meantime, there is hope that in Starmer’s newfound role as Europe’s “Trump whisperer” he might be able to persuade the US President to force Israel to rejoin the peace talks, or to enable more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
One minister said Starmer’s lack of ego has allowed him to get closer to Trump than other world leaders, such as Emmanuel Macron. “Despite all the criticism he’s had, he’s done very well on the diplomatic stage. I think it shows where others have perhaps had a higher opinion of themselves, they have not done quite as well,” they said.
Another minister claimed that there was a disconnect between how the UK leadership was seen by UK voters, and how it was admired by its international allies, after years of diplomatic tensions under the Conservatives post-Brexit.
“I think there’s a really big difference between how the PM and the UK is perceived by our allies and how it is perceived internally. Maybe because we haven’t cut winter fuel payments in other countries,” the minister joked.
“But they now see genuine leadership. I think we got used to the last decade or so, where we thought we were a really big country, but we’re just having a moment. And we weren’t putting in quite that same effort, with the exception of Ukraine. But across other things we weren’t looking quite as firm. Now we do. And that’s where you get us as this convening power, and people want to get involved.”
And don’t forget the trade deal
Starmer will also hope to use his unlikely bromance with Trump to try and press the UK’s case for better trading terms with the US, having all but agreed a deal with the White House.
Officials were optimistic about an agreement being struck on tariffs on UK pharmaceutical exports to the US, which was worth around £6bn to the British economy last year. But doubts remain over whether Starmer will be able to carve out a deal for steel, which attracts 25 per cent tariffs and remains at risk of being hit with 50 per cent levies.
Trump departing the White House for Scotland on Friday (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty)
“They genuinely get on. It seems so unlikely but they really do get on,” one Government source insisted.
Trump himself raised hopes before climbing aboard Air Force One on Friday.
Speaking to reporters the President said: “We’re going to be talking about the trade deal that we made and maybe even approve it.”
Diplomatic experts believe Starmer has played his hand as well as he can given the circumstances.
Dr Martin Farr, a leading expert in US-UK diplomacy, thinks Starmer has handled Trump “very well so far – better than other countries have managed”.
“He’s been more like [Clement] Atlee than [Harold] Wilson – giving quiet words of counsel for allies, rather than trying to intercede in things,” said Dr Farr, a senior lecturer in contemporary British history at Newcastle University.
Whether his Scottish trip is successful all comes down to whether Starmer can turn his deepening relationship with Trump into concrete action when they meet at the President’s Turnberry golf resort.
He may well rue his lack of love for the game of golf. Starmer became the first prime minister to turn down the honorary membership of the Ellesborough golf club near Chequers, such is his ambivalence towards the game.
The Prime Minister will hope that it won’t become a handicap in their special relationship.
