New Verstappen Rumours Rock Red Bull & Mercedes

Fresh rumours from Italy suggest the Max Verstappen-Mercedes switch has taken a step forward.

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With Toto Wolff keeping the Verstappen-to-Mercedes story alive, the F1 rumour mill is in overdrive as key figures openly discuss the future of both Max Verstappen and George Russell. With Red Bull under pressure, Mercedes are hunting for a new era of dominance and the upcoming 2026 regulation changes adding extra heat to the driver market – and locking Max in at their current leader’s expense. We break down Sky Sports Italia’s claims about a potential agreement plus the fascinating mind games between Toto Wolff and Christian Horner. The boardroom drama to shifting allegiances, every angle is covered as the summer break approaches and speculation reaches boiling point.

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Max Verstappen Rumours Heat Up as Mercedes Eyes a Shakeup

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Even though I really don’t want to talk about this, I feel like I have to because Toto will not stop going on about it. Why won’t he just let this go? Ah, well, l you know exactly why. But I think it’s fair that most of you probably wish that this story would just end. Either confirm it or just stop talking about it. And honestly, I feel the same. It’s exhausting. And the person to blame for all of this is none other than Toto Wolf himself. the main instigator of why this story will just keep on running and running and running. Because if you look at all the headlines related to Max Stappen and his future, whether it’s at Red Bull or it’s not, it’s constantly fueled by the drip feeding of negotiation tactics, situations regarding contracts, words from Toto. Whether he’s dropping cryptic hints, giving vague answers, Toto, or just kicking the can down the road to the summer break, because according to motorsport.com, Wolfp is aiming for a decision come August, which honestly does fit his usual pattern. The only exception came with Nico Rossberg’s deal, circa 2014. Mercedes had all the bargaining power in the world. There was no pressure. It could easily be done. They had the fastest car. Nico was not going to move. And you could chalk that up somewhat to Toto being a little bit naive because 2014 was only the second season where he had been a team principal. Lock Nico in, you get rid of all of the angst from outside the team and then you can quash some internal drama regarding concerns of Nico’s future. But then all of that happened anyway. So that was a very important life lesson for Toto. So yes, the rumor mill at the moment I could understand is quite annoying. He does still have runway left before his typical announcement window. And it’s not early for heavy gossip either. Driver market chaos always heats up from around Austria through the summer break. Lack of confirmation in July. That is classic Toto. Keep options open. Keep everyone guessing. There’s a lot of noise, zero signatures, which admittedly is something that Christian has been saying in response to the Vstappen rumors. Just claiming it’s all noise, yada yada yada, same old, same old. It’s it’s mind games really. even though it does have a kernel of logic behind it because well look at where Red Bull right now are there comparatively to 2023 right in the turlet so yeah the Max George rumors they are still on schedule but even if the timing is still reverting to type for Toto the aura around it still feels incredibly different and I will give you many reasons why so buckle up first the stakes are way higher this time in past years wolf summer negotiations were about extensions or promoting juniors is nothing truly seismic. This time, Toto is openly circling the sport’s dominant four-time champion, who’s still under contract elsewhere. You might argue that, wait, Lewis Hamilton was a big name back in 2012, but Mercedes wasn’t the powerhouse then, and neither was Lewis in comparison to all of the other drivers on the field. Now, in 2025, Toto is targeting a superstar. While McLaren and Ferrari are surging, and Mercedes is rebuilding, the pressure and hype are on another level. Second, as is quite obvious, Red Bull is in a little bit of a wobble at the moment. Given their due, Red Bull did survive 2024 rather admirably despite all the things going against them. Key personnel leading, technical shakeups, and a wakeup call regarding McLaren. And then, of course, there’s the allegations regarding her. There was a lot for that team to deal with, and they did come away with something. But the future of Horn is still a question mark regarding that team and a source of contention seemingly if sources from Alp Motor are anything to go by. Claims from that piece saying that the Vstafen camp are happy to stay within Red Bull as long as her powers are curtailed or he is removed entirely. So that is a whole other spanner of speculation for another video. But one thing I think we can easily confirm is that the old safe stable that Max Vstappen settled himself in circa 2016. It’s well and truly over. The new in-house engine project isn’t settled, and there are real concerns that Ford might not be pulling their weight in the battery department. Hence why Christian her and Fred Vers were going to the FIA saying, “Please, sir, give us mercy.” And then there’s obviously the fact that Red Bull are falling down the constructor’s order and there is a noticeable gap between them and Mercedes in that standing. They are very much Red Bull looking at the prospect of being a distant fourth much like what Mercedes were having to deal with last year. For the first time in a while, it is quite believable that Max would want out. And also, previous Mercedes contracts were all about just maintaining stability and continuity, not anything to do with rescue missions. Thirdly, the 2026 rule set changes everything. And that is something that can easily factor in for multiple conversations, but including this one. When the new rules hit, every single driver is going to want to try and pick a team that is looking likely to be the most resilient regarding these new rule changes because these aren’t just a sprinkling of light regulations like you might get every now and again like say the front wing characteristics change circa 2019. You get some bigger rear wings in 2017. Then you get the ground effect era of 2022 which admittedly was a pretty big change in the aero department. But 2026, that’s a big that is encompassing every single bit of minutia regarding the fundamentals of a Formula 1 car. Every single aspect of it is going to change. And none of Toto’s previous deals involve this level of technical upheaval, even though the Hamilton 2014 bet is a somewhat close second. If Max wants that stability, Mercedes looks like a safe bet. Fourth, the negotiation is playing out in public. And that’s the real kicker because look at all the interviews that Wolf is conducting. At almost every single opportunity, Toto brings the conversation round to Max in some shape or form, and it’s getting borderline creepy and weird. Then we fall into the similar pattern of Her just kicking back, saying the rumors are absolute nonsense. And then in this situation, Helmet Marco talking about performance clauses and what have you. And we are now back to where we were circa 2020 2021, the peak of when Red Bull and Mercedes would be sniping at one another. It’s happening in full force this year with Mercedes somewhat rebounding and Red Bull very much slipping away. And the stakes, they’re not about this year’s championship. It’s about the future eras of dominance potentially. And then finally, there’s the Russell factor. George is a proven race winner and by most metrics, the best of the rest this year. He’s even closing in on Max thanks to consistency and a bit of luck. Yet Wolf is leaving him hanging, which feels way more ruthless than the old Hamilton Rossberg security or botasses year-to-year deals. Russell doesn’t put a foot wrong, but there’s still no clarity. You can sense the frustration in his interviews, too. He’s having the season of his life and still can’t get any certainty. Therefore, this just makes the whole situation regarding this July August tradition that Mercedes seems to have. It’s not like, “Okay, George, it’s time to come clean. Let’s just get this deal done. Shake the heads.” Oh, yes, Toto Blimey. Thank you very much indeed. Yes, it’s all choreographed to make us look really stable. No, it looks like a standoff and a high pressure one at that. The F1 rumor mill though is absolutely loving this. This story will simply not die. And then Sky Sports Italia overnight dropped a petrol bomb on the issue. And what they are claiming right now is that the whole discussion regarding Matsin Toto is that allegedly supposedly so spanner time here folks that the two parties are past the will they won’t they phase in that Vstappen has said yes but in principle publicly Max is still saying he preferred to stay at Red Bull which makes sense. He knows that team inside out and a switch would be a huge risk. Once you break a contract like that, there’s no turning back. Still, with Red Bull’s form dipping and Mercedes future looking brighter and more solid, the temptation is real. The only holdup seemingly, according to Sky Sports Italia, some Mercedes board members aren’t convinced it’s worth spending big on the staff when next year’s rules might hand them a top car anyway. So, keeping the current lineup would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Even if they do get a bump in pay with their contract renewals, it would still pale in comparison to what the stappen would be asking for. And if the board allegedly reportedly apparently signs off in this deal, according to this Italian publication, it would be Russell that would take the brunt of this hit and not Antelli, which understandably would make me raise the spanner again because it’s an Italian publication and the Italian driver would be safe. Convenient. But also, Russell is still in negotiations reportedly regarding monetary expenditure and compensation. Talks are about €35 million a year or something like that, which admittedly would be higher than what either Norris or Pastra are being paid over at McLaren. But in short, Max has allegedly been given the green light to pursue a Mercedes deal. The only quibble amongst the board is that they’re talking about cost versus need. And when the domino falls, the driver market is going to go absolutely wild. However, let me make this clear. There is no official team statement backing this Italian report up. The sources which I have looked at and well sourced the various publications have only really recycled what Sky Sports Italia said. They’re not really offering fresh reporting. They are making good on this particular bombshell of a story that randomly was published in the middle of the night when everyone in Europe was sleeping. And it doesn’t help the source’s credibility that 5 days ago, Reuters quoted W saying Russell is still more likely to stay than Vstappen is to join, which points the other way. Helmet Marco then also tells Planet F1 that the exit conditions of Vstafen’s contract have not been met. So Red Bull expects him to honor his current deal. But there’s no concern on that front from the Austrian and close ally of Astappen. And taken together, this looks like an unconfirmed scoop rather than a done deal. So until Mercedes issues a formal announcement and Max Vstappen actually entertains these rumors from Sky Sports Italia, treat this news with extreme caution and it is merely just speculation. It is admittedly a rather interesting piece and it does go that little bit further than some other rumors that have been reported previously. And uh oh, who am I kidding? This is the reason why it’s blowing up because it’s something different. Why? because it’s got all the ingredients of a perfect storm. And again, it really doesn’t help that Lewis Hamilton’s deal to Ferrari broke the mold utterly and completely. There’s the matter of the Mercedes boardroom, which did come up in Lewis Hamilton’s contract extension through 2025, and that Lewis didn’t get the deal that he wanted, which was maybe more than two years extension and a 10-year ambassadorship. There’s Red Bull not being in a strong position at the moment because, well, come on, them being in fourth place. That’s the first time that’s happened since, I think, 2014, a long time ago. There’s the shock of George losing his seat despite him being in the form of his life and not putting a foot wrong and actually doing his part in being a good leader for Mercedes and helping Kimmy Anteneelli settle in with absolutely no animosity, no resentment because, well, let’s be real, Kimmy Antonelli is the future of Mercedes, whereas George Russell is the current bastion. And of course, we are heading toward that window of opportunity for Toto in just three races time, the summer break, when Mercedes deals of the past have been forged. So, understandably, this is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger, folks. No matter whether you like it or not. And again, this Italian gossip is the most extensive that we have seen in previous times. It’s never been this advanced where Max has been reportedly and allegedly and supposedly saying that he has said yes in principle to the deal. But I must remind you that you need to take plenty of phones and spanners into this one. Even if the constant repetition from the big major outlets is making the story even bigger than it actually is. And you might be thinking that I’m part of the problem that I’m making a video on the topic. But I wish to provide some grounding amidst all the intrigue that yes, this is still a rumor, but there is some just cause as to why it’s still being propagated, why it’s still being manifested, and as to why it won’t be left well enough alone. And oh, oh yes, there’s the British angle involved in all of this, too. All of these major outlets hail from the United Kingdom. George Russell hails from the United Kingdom, the boy from Kings Lin. And in this circumstance, he is the outright victim. Maybe Toto Wolf is taking advantage of the British bias that of course putting George in the firing line is going to make all of the big English publications squawk out in protest and going, “What? George, he’s he’s doing great. He’s doing amazing. Why would he be removed from Max? It makes absolutely no sense. Public public. And it’s making Christian Horner absolutely see. There’s nothing he can do about it. It makes good business to keep discussing this venture. But ultimately, what are the odds in this actually happening? Taking Wol’s overall words at face value, the mixed performance of the Mercedes car and Vstappen stated wish to stay put, the chances, I think, of seeing Max and Silva anytime soon looks about one in three. It’s high enough that both teams may have to plan for it, but it’s still not the bookie’s favorite outcome. If Red Bull do climb back into the top three and the Horner Power Struggle calms down, these odds will shrink faster still. Yes, I made a video not that long ago saying Mercedes had slammed the door seemingly on max and thrown away the key. Well, Toto has seemingly found the key again whilst I found the milk because that take aged horribly. Oh, yeah. Why is this almost empty, L? Well, um, I had to use most of it for my lawsome video the other day. But another byproduct is something that I did talk about in that video and a previous video that still remains true. That all of this gets under Christian her skin. Because not only is he having to deal with all of the constant prickling that he’s getting from Zack Brown, and Zack Brown is taking very much a lot of glee out of, he’s now having to deal Christian with all of the stuff from his old nemesis from the last few years, Toto. He’s now back on form, back on song. and Mercedes are looking somewhat stable, more resolute. It’s going back to the old game book where Mercedes look like this stable overlords where they look down at Red Bull and say, “You’re lying to protest, Christian.” Absolutely uncool. So, is Wolf still deliberately winding Red Bull up? Well, there is plenty of evidence to suggest so because with Wolf calling the team petty and embarrassing after all the brewhaha in Canada whilst removing Max from the equation entirely, that’s a direct attack at the integrity of the team who historically has relied on protests to get their way when faced with difficulty. Christian himself has mentioned at times last year that Wolf and Brown are working to stabilize Red Bull racing rather than minding their own performance figures in business. So, this public needling is another reason why the story is going to keep on trucking. Because if Red Bull’s top brass are going to have to constantly field questions regarding the Staten’s future at every single Grand Prix going forward, it’s going to detract from the narrative that they want to spin, Christian especially, about Team Unity coming out the other side, mucking in to figure out what they need to do to keep Max happy and to make sure Red Bull can be competitive again. It’s noise. Christian is right. But it’s the noise that they really do not want. It still is noise. still exists. For Wolf, this is an absolute win. Either Vstappen does jump ship over to his ship, or if Vstappen chooses to stay, Red Bull look utterly like clowns. But then there’s the most recent talking point, a rather big one. That crash between Kimmy and Max in Austria. Whilst on the surface it is pretty spectacular, and it very much mirrors the bleakness of Lando Norris after the Brazilian GP of 2024, where Max now finds himself 61 points behind Pietri in the championship. So, it’s kind of like Norris last year being that far behind and then having to try and claw it back about to reach the halfway point of the season. Tall order. The overall aura at that moment was different. I don’t want to say it was a surprise or an absolute shocker, but it was uh enough to make you notice. Max remained ice cool. The anger boiled down to one exploitive in the cockpit before he found out who it was that went into him. That being said, when you step back, there are reasons to explain why Max keeping cool was smart. and in the moment logical because Vstappen has praised Anteneelli all season calling the teenagers raw pace very impressive during the Miami weekend in particular also as has been made evident really recently with this huge glut of rookies that we’ve seen for 2025 the stappen has very much taken them under his wing he has been incredibly nurturing and very very supportive not just to Kimmy Anteneelli but also to Gabrielle Bortalto who scored his first points in Austria and they saw each other in the media pen what did Max say to He had a beaming smile and went, “Well done, Le Man.” And they had a hug and they talked it out and Gabrielle has been a huge supporter for Max, saying that he is a huge figure in his life and a major influence as to why he goes racing. Yeah. And of course, there is the penalty point angle, but I won’t linger on it because it’s no longer relevant because two of those points have expired. There are the home track optics to consider as well, and the fact that the Orange Army are just right over there between turn six and seven. Max losing his temper at the home circuit would not go down well for the team or their sponsors or any of the local populace. All at a time when morale around this operation is looking incredibly shaky. This would have not helped. And then there’s the fact which I have seen many of you in the comments of my previous couple of videos mention that if these rumors turn out to be true and Max is Mercedesbound, Kimmy would be his future teammate. So, if Max were to have a blazing argument with Kimmy, not only would it go against his convention of nurturing the rookies, something of which he wasn’t afforded back when he was a rookie himself, the media would just tear into him and Max had nobody to, you know, help defend him. Kimmy would be his future teammate, and then it would be incredibly awkward for all concerned, especially the Mercedes board. They’d be just looking to to say, “Why on earth we want this guy if he just disparages Antelli in public? He’ll only do the same if he comes over to us.” And then there’s the media angle to consider. Max tearing into Kimmy, Kimmy looking absolutely sheepish and apprehensive and scared, then the media would just constantly run with it. And if it does turn out to be confirmed, the media will not stop talking about it all the way through the beginning of 2026. They’ll be thinking, “Oh, are you sure that Kimmy and Max will get along?” Because, oh, that time in Austria, I mean, they they did not like each other one bit. Max, oh no, he’ll tear Kimmy aunder and Toto will have lost a rookie and Antelli’s confidence will be just blown to smitheroon. Well, I would argue the last few races for Kimmy have blown his confidence to smither ruins because, you know, the only highlight is that Canada podium and not much else after that. Nah, Max is not going to be playing that game. Any discourse he might have with the Italian Stapen would be played out behind closed doors, which by the way, there seemingly is none. But I still remain steadfast in my belief that whatever happens, Toto benefits. Because if the transfer never happens, he got his way anyway. He took Red Bull down a peg or two. And given where they are right now, and if Max does leave, I think they are going to be the candidates to be the ones falling into the midfield where one of the midfield teams will then get the promotion. I thought it was Williams, but I’m now started thinking that Audi might actually have some legs. Now, none of this proves a secret deal is done, but the behavior of all three main actors, Wolf’s public jabs, Horner’s defensiveness, Vstappen’s composure, they all align neatly with a pressure campaign designed to loosen Red Bull’s grip on its star driver. But what you are also asking is this. What does Toto do with George if he does go ahead with this plan? Well, in my mind, I think there are three scenarios that could play out regarding George Russell’s future within Formula 1. And if you’re a Russell fan, don’t you worry. All three of these outcomes are somewhat good for George in that he does remain in Formula 1. If the Mercedes board signs off on bringing in Max Fappen, Russell will be told before the world is told and Wolf will help him secure another seat like he did for Botas. And also there are the informal inquiries going around the Mercedes rumors that if this were to happen then some kind of driver swap between Toto and Christian that George would go to Red Bull, Max will go to Mercedes would be struck even though the prospect of this would be rather odd that Christian would want to even talk to Toto after having stolen his star asset and the main thing that’s keeping Red Bull goodwill going. Then of course there’s the Aston Martin rumors that have been floating around that George Russell is in play there to replace either Fernando or Lance. Take your pick. But going back to that Russell Red Bull angle, as I touched upon in my Lawson video, which admittedly is starting to age like milk pretty badly, there is the British angle that her did bring up that bringing in Arvid Limblad might answer a question in terms of where does Red Bull stand amongst the British fans because admittedly that team despite being based in Milton Kees in Motorsport Valley has taken plenty of glory from British F1 stars Hamilton, Norris, Russell, etc. So if you bring George in and he does have plenty of fans and he is British, then surely some good will be restored. And if you had Limblad and Russell, oh doubly so, then there’s a second one which is quite simple. If the board just looks at what Vstappen can offer them and ultimately says it’s not worth it, then it’ll be simple. George gets the two plus one deal that he wants and he’ll get a payriseise of some sort and then that’ll be that. Russell himself saying that that is the most likely scenario and that the only reason it’s been delayed because they just want to see where the chips lie the board about the stapen whether it actually has some potential and whether it’s actually cost-effective because yes if Mercedes turn out to make a rocket ship and it’s just going to be between the two Mercedes drivers it would just make sense to keep George and Gimme because they would be the contenders for the championship much like how Oscar and Lando are now the two main competitors for this year’s championship or there is a third way perhaps some kind of informal pre-contract where Max can decide what he wants to too, where Mercedes has first did should Max walk from Red Bull with Russell, then getting not the two plus one deal, but the one-year deal that Botass was afforded for many years. A kicking of the can. Not ideal, but George would in theory get one last season to show the paddock what he can do in a Mercedes in what could be the best car. Yeah, Russell would be a little bit sad that his time with Mercedes would be coming to an end, but in their final season together, he could have a title winning car. Mercedes doing the double and it would easily propel Russell’s stock right up potentially him being a world champion for 2026 or a serious contender alongside Kimmy. So if that did happen, George would be leaving the team a very very enticing prospect for any team that would want him. And then it will leave the door open for the Stappen to arrive at that team for 2027 when the pecking order will be better established than it is right now. And 2026 will give George plenty of time to court other teams. they can sort out some contract for then Toto will help facilitate it and then at least there is some sort of exit plan which looks you know somewhat reasonable. This is not the first time that we have seen this that a driver who goes for the world championship does end up leaving that team the following year that happened at Williams twice. Either way, Russell is covered to varying extents. He will either stay on with Brackley or he’ll get Wolf support wherever he goes next. So that safety net is what is allowing Mercedes to keep their options open while they chase the bigger prize. Hang on. Go back law Aston Martin. Really? Well, yeah, George is reportedly under consideration there. Find out why that might be the case and which of the drivers will be the most expendable. Watch this video next straight after this one.