2025 John Deere Classic Betting Preview

Get ready for an in-depth golf betting preview of The John Deere Classic! We break down the top players, course analysis, key stats, and value picks to help you make informed betting decisions. Discover the latest odds, expert predictions, and one and done picks for this elevated event. 

Topics Covered:
    •    TPC Deere Run course overview
    •    Key stats for success at the course 
    •    Top bets and placement markets 
    •    Betting strategies and best odds

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This is Long Shots, Vison’s premier golf betting podcast. Here’s Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. And it is Long Shots Golf Betting Podcast here on the Bon Podcast Network. Matt Brown West, Kelly Bidlin coming to you here as we talked to John Deere. Fellas, I don’t think we need to take a very long look back this past week. other than the fact that somehow we escaped last week without winning anything and outright which is like guys we we did almost the impossible because we were all over that some and could not get anything done uh with all of that. That said, I had been in California the week before. I pre-signed up for a whole bunch of DFS tournaments or whatever and I won all the money on DFS. So, I’m fine with all that because all of our guys were there just couldn’t get the freaking thing home. Uh, so it was it was uh something else and and you know, Wes, it played exactly like we thought. It played easy. You bombed it. You did whatever. Everybody shot low. I mean, literally like every single player in the field shot low. You had You didn’t have to have any form. Aldrick Potguider was not playing well. It just easy courses for these dudes. They’re all the best golfers. We say it all the time. We say it on this podcast every week. They’re all the best golfers you’ve ever seen in your whole life. And if you put them on an easy course like that, they can all just go light it up. Yeah. Somehow some way we didn’t end up on the longest driving distance guy on the tour uh with uh with with Aldrich Pot Jeter. And I was on him at the Mexico Open earlier this year. He lost in that playoff when Brian Campbell got that great bounce off the trees and then and then eventually won on the playoff. Uh Aldrich here, by the way, did not pub well in that Mexico Open playoff, but he put it pretty darn well here in Detroit, unfortunately, for uh our man Kelly Bidlin, who had Max Graaserman. I I know Matt, you had a guy in the hunt. I had Michael Chawbornson, who was uh one shot off the lead, one shot out of the playoffs. So Bob Jeter wins over Graserman. Chris Kirk was also in that playoff, but he was eliminated on the second playoff hole. So uh uh Aldrich gets his first win. And look, it makes sense that Detroit bombing off the tea, no real hazards, and we’ve seen those guys win there in the past uh in Detroit uh uh with I think KM Champ, a former winner. So, Bombers can win there. And another one did last week.
I feel for you, buddy. I mean, uh
I had nap, so I was four inches short of being in that playoff with you as he misses the putt on 18 by 4 in and uh and didn’t didn’t quite get there with all that. But yeah, I mean, we had the damn thing surrounded and and you had Graserman and just, you know, uh
here we go. I mean, we were all over it. It’s tough to be It’s tough to be upset. It just it is what it is. You know,
it is. Um and I we talk a fair amount on here about our different hedging practices and stuff like that. And I for a tournament like that, Matt, I tell me I got an outright in the final two in a playoff. I’ll take it cuz it was, you know, was able to hedge off. I I I mean, hat tip to Chris Kirk. Thanks for getting out of the way so I could even do something with that ticket cuz it’s really not much you can do when there’s three guys in that playoff. Uh I don’t know about you guys, I when those three went to a playoff, I was like, “Well, Chris Kirk’s going to win this thing.” Like I not even like that Chris Kirk deserves
I that much respect, but I I I thought with the way that those guys were burning edges coming down the stretch with putting, I was like, Chris Kirk’s just going to be the steadier guy in this playoff. I was fairly surprised to see him be the first one knocked out. Missing his own putt at the end there to to not make it be able to continue. But um yeah, it was look I’ll take the money and run just a little bit. I was able to squeeze out of that tournament in in the birdie fest like we tal about. And yeah, Wes, we I know we talked a little bit about it on a numbers game, but man, Pocket I I sure had sure got my attention in these two ter only might be only these two tournaments this year, but I think we got to start asking the question just with his distance and how young he is of of is he just got to be a look for every one of the every one of these Bombers events at least.
Well, he certainly has the pedigree. I mentioned uh he won the British amateur, which is the equivalent of the US amateur. It’s called the amateur championship. He won it three years ago at age 17. Now he’s the ripe old age of 20. But you know, I I’m kicking myself a little bit for not backing the guy that’s number one in driving distance on the PGA Tour at a course where bombers tend to do well. But I’m also looking at the fact that he only had made five of 14 cuts this year. So, he’s been really inconsistent and you’re going to see that out of a lot of young players like, you know, the guys that like like Luke Clanton’s missed a couple cuts and and he’s been right there for the win on a couple occasions. So, a lot of these guys that get right out there on the tour and have some immediate success where they like contend, they don’t always maintain that consistency and certainly uh uh Aldrich Potater has not, but he does now have a win on the PGA Tour.
We move into this week, it is the John Deere Classic at TPC deer run, and it’s going to look a lot like we saw this past week as well. There’s going to be low scores out here at this one. So, what are we looking at just from a course perspective?
Yeah, the uh the uh John Deere classic uh uh my my little hat that I bought at a local convenience store for just just for the proper occasion.
That’s right, man. The amount of money we’ve spent on show props, you know, may not be as much on lawn shots, but spent a lot of money over the years.
I’m sure the company will reimburse uh uh for this purchase. Uh TPC Deer Run, it opened in 2000. Silus, Illinois, so the Quad City. So Davenport, Iowa, Bondorf, Iowa, Rock Island, Molen, Illinois, if you’re familiar with that area or era. This used to be called uh the Quad Cities Open way back in the day. DA Wybring who won five times on the PJ tour, including three times at the John Deere Classic, designed this track. Par 71, 72, 89 from the tips. You have some elevation changes and you do have some bunkering, especially in the fairways. 76 bunkers, three water danger holes. There are some dog legs and some sloping fairways, so players are going to have to use Epic Club in the bag. You know, the fairways are relatively wide, about 36 yards, so they’re getable, but it’s not quite the Bombers Paradise that we had at Detroit Golf Club, even though there is some correlation between the two courses. Plays is one of the easier courses. I think it was the second easiest course on the PGA Tour. Uh we actually got the winner home here last year with Davis Thompson, 28 under par. That was the all-time record at the John Deere Classic 256. Uh main defense there is four inch thick Kentucky blueg grass fescue rough greens are average 5,500 ft 12 on the stimp. So uh 7289 as I said 7 par 71 TPC courses have some correlation here. Craig Ranch, River Highlands, Twin Cities, Summerland, which hosts the Shriners out here in Vegas, Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield, Keem Trace, which has the old Barbasol Championship. So, you know, pretty easy course. Uh, in weather conditions going to be hot and humid. It’s going to get up to about 95, I think, on Friday. And then when I look at the Acuet forecast, real feel 102 degrees. So, it’s going to be nice and hot there in the Quad Cities. Yeah, Kelly, as I looked at this, I mean, yeah, I mean, really all I did was just flip as far as the model went this week and just moved moved distance out, put accuracy in, and then basically went with the almost the same damn modeling type of deal that that I had last week. If we look this field, it’s it’s got there are some guys been playing good golf for sure. So, I’m not going to say it’s a weak field, but as Kelly has it on the screen right now, if you’re watching over on YouTube, uh, with us, anytime there’s a tournament, and don’t get me wrong, he’s been playing great, but but Ben Griffin’s your short shot. That lets you know what kind of field we’re dealing with here. As you look at this board, Ben Griffin, Jason Day, Denny McCarthy are your top three in this, Kelly. So, I mean, you can see the difference here in the leaderboard. Like I said, there are some guys who been playing some good golf, but it’s certainly not a star-studded field.
No, not No, not at all. I I’m sure you guys checked odds around town here. We consider Circa one of the one of the sharper golf golf betting shops uh in the world perhaps. And uh man uh I was I was even more blown away to see that Ben Griffin is there and getting bet there and all the way down to almost 11 to one over at Circa. So I look I I think that it’s very easy to say for us to say that Matt what you just said but also but also I could say man Ben Griffin has just not let he’s not let down recently. It is incredible this run that he’s on. I mean, it’s a top 20s in what, six straight that he’s cashing. So, um, I get it. I I I get it. I’m not looking there for for an outright price that short on basically anybody in event like this. Um, but yeah, it is it’s a tough it’s a tough field. I know you started talking stats and what uh I’ll get to that, Matt, but man, I struggled with just this field and pricing and just are there guys. I mean, there are some bigger names in this tournament, right? I don’t we don’t talk about this often on the p on the pod because I think we all kind of rely on so much recent form and statistical data and stuff but is there a buy low point for you guys on almost any of these dudes? I mean like just the South Koreans, Sunjm, Tom Kim, like Si Woo Kim, where are you guys all bet at? You’re all playing terrible, but like you can get longer odds on those dudes if you’re interested. I’m I’m not, but just bringing it up. Homer’s 100 to one, right? Like there’s some names in this field. I just none of them are playing well.
Yeah, it’s so I I I brought it up at the top of the show and I’ll bring it up again here because I mean look, it’s gambling and I understand that we typically talk just just traditional sports betting or something like this. Like I think a tournament like this is fantastic a fantastic DFS tournament. Like you you find 12 dudes you really really like and then you can just kind of cycle them through and come through with like the best iteration of these six-man teams and stuff and all that. I think this is an awesome DFS week. I don’t know how great of a betting week it is honestly. Uh when it all comes down to it because again there are kind of like we said last week there are 50 guy 40 guys that could win this tournament probably you know 40 guys that could win this tournament um with the way that it went. we saw last week. I mean, again, half the field went low. Literally, literally half the field went low last week, and it’s going to be close to the same here uh in this one, though, there are some guys that are going to get a little willy-nilly off the tea and and they’ll they’ll suffer. But outside of that, uh most of these guys are going to to be able to handle this course. And so, just weeks like this, it’s an awesome DFS week. I just don’t know how great it’ll be
um from a betting standpoint. But as far as statistics go, like I said, I mean, for me, I popped open the model from last year, you know, we had some pretty good success. Kind of looked at what went on with that and then just went in with some more stuff that I thought with this one, guys. And I mean, I ended up on a model that a lot of accuracy stuff, good drives type stuff, fairways gain type stuff, and then scores, you know, birdie or better, birdie better gain, opportunities, stuff like that. And then uh you know I did I did a version of the model and then just took it in on easy courses. Um but that’s about it. I think the only difference for me and curious as to uh Wes and Kelly what you guys did is because like we said whenever you start putting in so many factors like for for easy courses or short courses and stuff like that they don’t often play easy courses. they don’t often play short courses and certainly when they play easy and short it’s it makes that sample size even smaller. So I actually did a time frame this time as opposed to so some of the models out there allow you to do time frame as opposed to to to uh rounds. And so I just did the last 18 months. So instead of like shortening it to a certain specific um time uh amount of rounds, I just did over the last 18 months because even though it’s 18 months, when I started to put in all of the different factors, it shrinks the sample size down anyway. And so, you know, I kind of wanted to see what these dudes have done on these shorter, easier courses, etc., etc., and stuff like that that that favor accuracy and and blah blah blah because as we saw, um you know, again, like I said, Pot Gator was not playing well. He goes out and he handles an easy course and basically so did everybody else in the field. So I’m not incredibly worried about form all that much here in this one. I just want to see who does well on short easy courses that favor accuracy. So Wes, what uh what was your strategy here for this one?
Yeah, and when you and when you talk about form, there’s two types of form obviously recent form and course form. So those are two things. you know, sometimes you count one or the other, but you have to, I think, take both into consideration, at least most weeks. And, uh, I took maybe a little too much recent form last week, but in terms of the stats, uh, you know, approach, I think I think you had to look at here because it’s a lot easier to gain strokes off the tea, uh, here. Uh, so I think there’s a little more of a premium on iron play. Uh, birdie or better. Average uh, score under par last year was 2.22 strokes. So, 68.78 was the average round. It was the second easiest course actually on the tour last year. So, birdie or better? Uh, from a off the tea standpoint, I use good drive percentage or good drives gained because I think it when you look at the recent year winners of this event, you get a lot of guys that are kind of shorter hitters but more on the accurate side. The JT Poston’s uh the Lucas Glovers, the Michael Kim, the Ryan Moors. This is going back over the last 10 years. Those guys have won here. It hasn’t been all bombers even though Bryson a former champion here in 2017 uh when he was 50 to1 and a very new player on the tour but you know I I think accuracy matters as much as distance so I use good drives gain uh little bit of scoring strokes gain par4 there’s 11 par4s on a par 71 here at Deer Run a lot of the shots are going to be wedge so I did use the wedge buckets 75 to 100 to 125 125 to 150 just for some context and then some strokes gained around the green because these greens are elevated. So, you’re going to miss some approaches that’ll roll off into those collection areas, those short grasses. So, you are going to have to have your chipping game on point and scramble for pars at times. And then strokes gain putting bent grass. This is usually a putting contest. If you look at the guys that have won, they’ve been one of the better putters of the week. So, you have to look at that. And then total strokes gain, easy scoring, easy courses. Uh I did like last 36 rounds and that’s about it for me. Yeah, Wes, that’s the that’s kind of the unfortunate thing about this too is you look and it’s it this is taking nothing away from Pot Ger and all this I at all and any of the guys that played well last week, but everybody when everybody is tearing up his course, it it basically just comes down to who gets a few putts to fall, you know? I mean, it really does, you know, it comes down to who’s going to get a few putts to fall. And hopefully you can have a guy with a big enough number where you can figure out how to monetize the ticket or whatever it might be because that’s really at the end of the day what it’s likely to come down to. Yeah, no question. No question about it. I think uh just looking at at the guys that have won here over the years, you’re seeing I I think Davis Thompson when he won last year, I was fortunate enough to be aboard him. I think he gained like 7.7 strokes putting or or something like that. that I may be a little off on my number, but that that’s what that’s what it’s all been about. I think this definitely turns into a a putting contest and and what was he last year? He was uh fifth in strokes gain putting. Sea of the year before was fourth. Dylan Felli when he won he was second. Michael Kim when he won in 2018 was first. Dishambo the year before second. So, it is all about the putter. And probably about a third of the strokes you’re going to gain here are with the putter historically, at least over the last few years. Well, we’re just going to go ahead and just plow through here with this one. A second week in a row, Kelly Bidlin has decided to let his internet fail him, Wes. And so, we’re just going to go ahead and and plow through and have Kelly have to come in and and clean up the pieces afterwards. Get some better internet out there, Bidlin. Jesus Christ. It’s not like you do this for a living or anything. I mean, what’s going on? It’s usually me with the tech problems. Uh in full disclosure on this program. So uh yeah uh uh one thing I did want to mention before we go through uh Matt, this is kind of like a quirky little trend. So don’t put too much stock into this. I usually have a couple little trends and angles like how many in the last 10 years were first time winners, how many had like a top 10 or a top five in the last month or something. But this is a quirky one that I found. And there’s something there’s some sort of like trophy house, what it’s called at the John Deere Classic. Each of the last three years, by the way, the winner has stayed in this trophy house, which is in fact an Airbnb just a few miles away from the golf course. JT Poston stayed there in 22, Seph Straa in 23, Davis Thompson in 24 because Seraa because they had just had a baby had to get a hotel room. So that gave Davis Thompson the spot and he won. So, uh, Ron Close, who I want to give credit, he had a he’s based up in Michigan, uh, PJ Splits 101 on X and he had a media credential, I believe, for the Rocket Classic last week. So, he asked Davis Thompson who’s staying in this place. Thompson said he’s staying again. He’s not going to give up his spot after he won last year. Grayson Sig, Chris Kirk, Ben Kohl’s, Patton Kazire, JT Poston, and Denny McCarthy. So, I guess there’s the card right there. We don’t need to do any of this modeling stuff. Okay. One of those guys is going to win based on this trend over the last three years. What’s funny is I have one of those guys on my card.
I do too.
Yeah. So, what’s funny is I have one of those guys on my card. So, uh we put in the data. We spit out the stuff right here. And uh so what did you what’d you end up landing on here?
Well, let me go with the one that is staying in that trophy house uh right from the start. Denny McCarthy 28 to1. Kind of like Graaserman last week. He’s had a he’s had some near misses over the last couple years trying to get that first PJ Tour victory. Has not been in the peak form. Has not played poorly, but hasn’t really been in contention in as many events as he was in 2024 and also 2023. However, you look at course form here, seventh last year, sixth the year before, and then sixth the year before that. He’s one of the top putters on the PGA Tour. And if this is going to turn into a putting contest, there aren’t very many guys I want more than Denny McCarthy. Denny McCarthy 28-1. And then a guy I played last week that I fell a little bit short with. And I played him at 90 to1 last week and now I got to play him at 33. Michael Chore Borson who finished runner up here last year and was one shot out of the playoff last week in Detroit. Made 27 birdies here last year. So he can go low and he’s knocked on the door multiple occasions. Runner up at the Coralis Punaana. was fourth in the the team event New Orleans fourth last week in Detroit. So Michael Chbornson 33 to1 Kevin U 40 to1 six here two years ago 20th here last year fourth in this week’s field for TA Green and he’s been close a couple times this season remember he won uh last fall at the uh at the what what is that Sanderson Farms at Jackson Mississippi third at the Canadian Open fourth in Myrtle Beach so he’s got some good form coming in and then I’m going to give this guy a try Bud Collie 45 to1 who’s been close his buddy Justin Thomas is former roommate at Alabama said he’s really close to winning and he’s got four top sixes this season. So, this is as close as he’s been to winning on the PJ tour since he first appeared on the tour in 2011. We know the injuries he had with the car accident. He’s been back on the comeback trail. Perfect place I I think for him to complete that comeback. Uh so, Bud Collie 45 to1. And then we had a South African last win last week. So, I’ll go down narrative street and add a couple South Africans this week. Cristian Bazadenhout 75-1 who was the runner up here back in 2022. He’s played good golf T12 at Oakmont at the US Open and then he was only 45th at the Travelers but he was first in the field for strokes game putting and he is very similar to McCarthy one of the best on and around the green. So, Beset Hout 75 to1, Cheirsten Lawrence 85 to1, missed 10 of his first 12 cuts in his debut season on the PGA Tour, but he went back to the DP World Tour, finished fourth in Belgium, and then all of a sudden he came back and he was T12 at the US Open, T8 last week in Detroit. So, maybe some momentum on Tristan Lawrence’s side. And then, uh, we’re going to close it out 100 to1, the Gim Reaper, Doug Gim, uh, 124th and FedEx Cup points right now. So, he needs a couple very good weeks to kind of keep that card out of peril. Top 20 last week in Detroit, gain strokes in all areas. Uh, and I think he’s the guy that kind of fits that profile. I mentioned a little bit earlier about like Glover and Poston and Michael Kim and those guys. Shorter hitter that’s a really accurate ball striker. So, Doug Gim 100 to one closes out the card. I just as I sit over here and kind of giggle to myself, Wes, as uh as as Kelly uh popped in, but then popped out again. Um like it’s just something something going on with him over there. So, whatever. It kind of it is what it is, you know? It is what it is with uh with Kelly. So, uh again, it’s kind not a spray and prey situation for me. uh last week. I mean, Wes, every one of my freaking guys made the cut and and then it just, you know, it just didn’t it just didn’t get home. I mean, like, you know, like we said, got the closest with Nap, but
you know, Clanton blew up on Saturday only to come back on Sunday and shoot another really great round. I mean, it’s just there was just it’s funky. Everything’s funky. So, kind of is what it is. I did end up I did end up on uh Bud Collie as well with you there. So Bud Collie did make the card. Uh for me, if you look for him, uh guy that finished inside the top 12 in every version of mine. So uh anytime that’s the the case, then I’m going to have to go in and uh give him a look. So I I did that. So Bud Collie did make mine number one in my model. And Wes, again, I I went about it a little bit differently this week considering how Trump went for a much bigger sample size of all this, but Rico Hoey, I mean, like just, you know, made made the top. I mean, literally number one in the model for me this week.
He was number one in good drive percentage for me. So,
if you’re looking here again, you know, talk like I talked about this being a a decent DFS week and stuff. I mean, he’s only $73. I mean, $7,300. So if you’re if you’re trying to cobble together a lineup that has some cheap dudes and stuff like that, if you need to fill them out, I think Rico Hoe’s in there. So Rico Hoey made it for me this week. One of the guys you mentioned standing in that house, Wes, Ben Kohl’s uh made it for me uh this week. So good on that. So Ben Kohl’s. So there I’ll check Ben Kohl’s um off the list of of maybe I’ll be able to to say that I I followed the narrative street and did that and got Ben Kohl’s home for that. had a guy you were on I think last week or two weeks ago or whatever, but uh Lee Hodgeges. Um yeah, I was almost going to play him again.
Yeah. Was it last week that you were on Lee Hod? Yeah.
Uh he was third, fifth, and fourth in the various models in all of this. So,
um again, another guy that just when you go in and you look at approach, he’s good there. You look at um you look at birdie better percentage he’s going to be inside like the top 25 and like that’s good enough for me right you know I mean inside the top 25 with all that means he can go out and do it do do it on some of these courses and whatnot even off the tea inside kind of the top 30 top 35ish type deal and so uh wellrounded for what I’m looking for here this week. So did did play me some uh some Lee Hajes. Who else ended up making the card? Mark Huard made the card for me uh this week, which was a little bit um which was a little bit surprising, but uh modeled out well and then went in and just kind of looked at him on the flip side of some of the stuff that we’ve been doing here and uh hey, I’m going to play uh I’m going to play a guy that can spike. And T13 last week, green across the board, T5 back at Craig Ranch, another course that people did well at. Green across the board. You can see the Charles Schwab at at at Colonial where almost green across the board. He lost.3 strokes off the tee there in that one, but he’s typically gaining off the tea. And so Hubard uh decent little stat profile for him here over the uh over the last little bit. And again, another guy that I think can in a in a weaker field have some success. And then last one for me is Kevin Roy. And uh Kevin Roy inside the top 15 for me in uh pretty much every version of the model. and and Wes, look, we talk about this often. We like to see green across the board in different tournaments, but if you’re only lacking in one of the areas, I can deal with it, you know, and so at the Rocket T8, he lost a little bit putting the at the Canadian Open, green across except for around the green where he lost a little bit. You can go back to the to to the Byron Nelson, same deal. Green everywhere except for around the green. So, one little stat that’s not really popping for him. Hopefully he can just hit the greens. I know I I put in a little bit of around the green as well, just like you did, but hopefully can just hit the greens. We don’t have to worry about the around the green game here from Roy, but uh that’s the card for me this week. A bunch of dudes with big numbers and hopefully can get themselves in a contention and I can figure out a way to monetize this ticket. But again, it’s it’s it’s Hoey, Collie, Kohl’s, Hubard, Hodgeges, and Roy for me this week. And and Wes, it’s a deal where I’m probably just going to back all since all of them are pretty decent numbers. I’m just going to back them all up with top tens or top fives depending on what I need to do with all of that and I’m going to call it a week. I don’t know if I’m going to have any placement market stuff, especially after last week, right? I mean, we see
it’s just
every one of these dudes can can go low and it’s just it’s so rough if you’re playing a top 20 on someone or top 30 on someone and they go four under or five under and they still get lapped because somebody else is doing it, you know, two days in a row. to me last week with Davis Thompson who uh was right in position then bogeied three on the back nine and ended up I think like 32 tied for 32. So and I tend to go a little bit more you know I guess wide ranging on these where I play a lot more 20 30s and 40s especially in a full field like this than I would like 10 where that might be what I do in a signature event but I’ll have a few of those. Uh a lot of different motivations this week too. you know, some guys maybe trying to get that one of those final spots in the open in a couple weeks at Royal Port Rush. Guys trying to get some FedEx Cup points in a full field event that’s going to pay out full points when a lot of the big guns are away. So, you know, it’s always kind of kind of a a quirky little event. I I actually like the course and I like the event because it’s it’s in a small market. The people come out and support it every single year. You know, it’s one of the better run events. So, I end up liking it. and have had some success here. Hopefully, it continues.
Some other names that did pop in the models, just for people out there that if you might if you might like him better than me and it wants to make your card or again from a DFS perspective, um Lucas Glover, you mentioned him a little bit earlier. He he really stood out for me. Luke Clanton played pretty well in a lot of the models for me as well. Alex Smallley kept showing up over and over again.
Was runner up here a couple years ago.
Yeah, for me he kept showing up uh again and again. I know you played Kevin U. Kevin U play uh uh really showed out for me in the model as well. Um Victor Perez was inside the top 20 in a bunch of different versions uh for me. So probably would have been even higher, but he’s like god awful around the greens. He’s literally like 135th in this in this field like around the greens or something. So uh probably would have been a little bit better if he wasn’t just so so so terrible
there in that one. Max McGrevy, another name that was popping up several times for me. And then my boy Ryan Gerard um is is another guy that kept uh
that kept showing up over and over again in the various versions of the models. So again, they while they didn’t make my card, doesn’t necessarily mean they shouldn’t make yours. They just didn’t Something I didn’t like about them doesn’t mean that you might not like them a little bit better. But they’re all dudes that again, if I was they’d at least be I’d think about them in my player pool anyway if I was playing uh if I was playing DFS. So, as we get to the end of my plays, we get to the end of Wes’s place. Kelly Bidlin has figured out how to get the hamster back on the wheel to get his internet working. So, do you want to run through yours very quickly before you lose internet yet again because we know what’s happening. That’s what’s happening. Sorry, there’s a hurricane in Las Vegas, man. I don’t know what’s going on right now. Um, the weather is crazy, though. Hey, great breakdown by you guys. That was awesome. Uh, I love listening to every second of it. I love the fact that he was here just long enough to tell his great breakdown and then he lost again. So guys, uh we’re we’re we’re not going to keep you and and go back on this. Kelly will tack on his plays to the end of Me and Wes right here just like he did last week and then hopefully he can get somebody out there to uh to his place here in Vegas and figure out why the hamsters keep uh stopping running and he can’t get the wheel running with the uh with all of that. But uh Wes, final words here for for this one? Um
yeah. Yeah, I guess a couple uh uh that were leave offs for me. Uh you meant you played one of them, Ben Kohl’s. Uh uh Jackson Suber, another one uh that I certainly considered approach numbers are really good for this guy. But you know, it’s what it’s going to turn into. A lot of guys are going to shoot low and got to get hot with the putter. There’s going to be a lot of guys in contention. It’s going to be the leaderboard. But I think the way it’s structured is going to be very similar to what it was in Detroit where you got a lot of guys bunched together. I don’t know if it’ll play as easy as Detroit did because there’s more ways to get in trouble on this course. But like Davis Thompson last year it was relatively comfortable. I think he ended up winning by four shots uh 28 under because he just kept making birdies on the back nine. So it was very fortunate for me. But
usually you get a pretty close leaderboard. You’ve had a few playoffs here over the years. hadn’t had one by the way since 2015 or but uh you know certainly could have one. I think uh a lot of guys do have a chance to win this event. I think you put it at 40. I think that’s about the appropriate number. Quick reminder guys uh our NFL guide is out over at VSON. So head on over if you are a VSON Pro subscriber already then you it’s waiting on you. So you can go ahead and you can take advantage of it. If you are not you can get in for as low as $9.99. You can do uh now till the Super Bowl till the end of the Super Bowl for 175 bucks. But, uh, whatever it is, go in, take advantage of it. I’m not going to say that the guide moves the lines, but certainly anything that was mispriced out there is going to be getting bet. So, they’re they’re going to move. So, you want to do it here in the next in the next little bit if you want to uh play any of these things that are going on um out there for Wes. I am Matt. Here comes Kelly with his picks.
Well, great stuff as always from Matt Brown and Wes Reynolds. I enjoyed listening. I hope you did too cuz uh there was a hurricane hitting Las Vegas or something and uh my internet went in and out and in and out. So tried not to distract them. We’re going to do the same thing we did last week. Uh you guys just heard all the bets that they ran through. Wanted to jump on here and go through mine as well. Admittedly, you probably heard me leaning this way uh as we were talking at the beginning of the podcast. Um I I feel like I’ve had a pretty good read on things here. the past few weeks, uh, past couple months, uh, have been pretty good. There is not much that is jumping out to me from a betting standpoint this tournament. Matt talked about it a lot. I do think this is a good DFS week. I agree with him just like last week was and very good for him. Uh, apparently I this week I thought it was very, very difficult to find bets that I really, really, really liked. um it’s a weak field and you’re seeing shorter numbers on guys that you know you’re used to seeing long longer numbers on even if you are fairly confident in their form. Um Ben Griffin at 16 to1 at draft kings almost 11 to1 here at circa is pretty wild to see as a favorite. Um having said that I everything statistically backs it up with him. Um he was by far my highest rated golfer in the field uh this week. I am gonna do the same thing I did last week with Ben Griffin and play a top 20 on him. Look, he’s cashed six straight. The game’s there. He’s gaining in every statistical category. Um, that outright price might be a little too a little too expensive for me, but I’ll jump in at a top 20. Again, you can find right around even money on that. Um, not a big bet. Not a big bet on anything for me this week. Uh, with it being a birdie fest, how much variance we can see on the leaderboard, how much changes we can see of placements there. You don’t want to mess around too much with the finishing position markets in tournaments like this. At least at least for me, that’s how I approach it. So, only one top 20 bet uh for the for this week. That is on Ben Griffin. I don’t have any matchups that I’ve played yet. Uh even just initially looking through them, there’s not really many that jumped out to me either. Uh with these guys that can go solo on a course like this, I’d rather just bet little uh bet a little bit, play a few outrightes, cover it with some top fives. uh in case you get burnt like I did last week with Razorman, at least you’re able to collect that uh top five money and move on. And you know, g guess what? We got our last major of the year coming up. So, if you’ve been get betting golf all season, nothing wrong with holding back a few dollars that you know you’re going to end up spending uh on the open championship. So, look, three outrights for me this week, three top five plays. Um two that I am pretty confident in, and then I would say a third that look, it’s a name you’ve heard me bring up a bunch on this podcast on a numbers game. uh if you watch that as well. So start at the top. Chris Kirk, I I’m on him 38 to1. You might want to say this is a little recency bias and in my numbers it probably is pulling from that uh a little bit in the incredible tournament he had last last week just losing in that playoff. Um but man, it’s been a couple solid weeks in a row for him where he’s gaining in every stat category. The Irons are locked in. He’s gained on approach in seven straight tournaments and 11 of the last 12. Now, we expect that from Kirk, but even gaining with the putter the past couple weeks is impressive off the tea as well. So, like Matt talked about as far as modeling and stat stuff. I guess I should hit that first. I he put it he put it pretty much perfectly. This is a very very similar model to me uh to what I had last week week except for dialing back the emphasis on distance and putting that more on accuracy off the tea. Those are really the biggest change that I made. Only other thing is looking at more if you you have access we put it on the show all the time. rickr rungood.com, Rick Gaiman’s website, uh you’re able to do some more weighted uh stats and takes into uh t takes in into account which events these guys have played on. And if you’re seeing if you’re running some of your own stats at home on some of these sites, you’re going to see some guys spike. You need to check what tour they’re playing on. A lot of these guys are coming from Court Ferry tour, something like that. They’re putting up great numbers there, but be careful that doesn’t exactly translate over to what these what a guy like a Chris Kirk has been playing through on the PGA Tour all season long. So, I I thought that was a little bit more important to do this week. But otherwise, strokes gained off the tea, good drives gained, fairways, um and then approach proximity 150 yards. It’s going to be a lot of wedges again this week. Opportunities gain birdie or better. You got to build build in your scoring stats this week. par fives. Um, all three of them are you can hit in two shots. Basically, everybody can in the field. They should all be very scorable. Um, and then I looked at some putting stats because I think this is going to come down to the flat stick uh again this week. So, that’s what I did from modeling standpoint. Uh, talked about Chris Kirk already. Do like him. Last 16th round. He’s ninth on approach in in uh in this field. Second T to Green. T Green I factored in a little bit more too. I think that goes along with what we’re talking about with weight uh with the weighted stats as well. What have you just done from getting it from the tea onto the green? Let me see where you rate out. That’s more important than almost anything to for me this week. So, uh, he was second in that category. Great with his wedges. He’s got solid course history here, too. So, I mean, nothing that’s going to blow your mind, but two top top 25s here the last two years. So, Kirk, I played outright in top five. Um, and then next on my list is Alex Smallley, 53-1. Smallley. Uh, look, I played a bunch this year. He started off very consistent at the beginning of the year. We ain’t really shown the consistency right now, but he continues to pop him, uh, in the models, and it’s it’s no surprise if you’re going to look at stuff, some of the ball striking statistics that we look at so heavily and factor them in, guys like him are going to pop. Uh, he’s 13th off the tea, last 16 rounds in this um, in this field. He’s ninth T degree in overall, 23rd birdie or better uh scoring, 12th on good drives, fifth in total driving. So everything you’re looking for off the tee here. Um he’s one of the guys that’s actually going to have to dial back a little bit. I probably wouldn’t have played him if he didn’t have a he finished T2 here two years ago. So having the course history to kind of back up what you’re seeing in the model allowed me to lean a little bit less on recent results. Now that is not how I usually approach things. So we’ll see. It’s look, it’s a 53 to1 shot. Priced accordingly. I’m going to play it small though here. Um Kirk, I like the other one. I like I know Matt Brown was on him as well. I don’t know if Wes said he bet him uh this week at all, but Wes has bet him a few times this year. Lee Hajes, I I am on Lee Hodes. I think at his number, he stood out to me. You’re betting him at like 66 to1. I got him outright price. Cover that with a top five at 11 to1. Um which is great, great value there on that top five number. Uh, look, Hajes last 16 rounds, the ball striking numbers are great. He’s gaining off the tea and on approach. He’s gained with the putter now in two straight events, too, which you’re always trying to look right when these guys who are good ball strikers kind of catch it with the putter and looks like he’s putting it together. He’s gained eight straight eight straight events T Green’s gained on. He’s third in par five scoring in this field. He’s 14th in bogey avoidance. Um, recent results, T34 last week. He finished with a T9 at the Canadian Open. So Lee Hodes might be rounding right into form here. I think he’s got a game that could fit this course pretty well. I think it’s 66 to1. He’s a good player. Really like to that that number this week uh on Lee Hodgees. So 66 to1 11 to1 on the top five um is how I played him. So again, high on Kirk, high on Hodes, played Smallley. There were other names that stood out to me. I Kevin U was probably my last leave off. I believe Wes played him. I like Kevin U. Uh I’ve played him a fair amount this year. I think all three of us have on the pod. We’ve played him a fair amount. I just can’t get there on this number. He’s as low as 25 30 to1 in places. For an outright price, I I I can’t play it. I don’t blame you if you do. I He did rate out very highly for me this week. I got very close uh on him. Milliano Grio, Mark Huard, guys I considered as well, but ended up passing on. Jake Knap I got close to getting back uh going to this week as well. Like all those guys, they rated it out very highly for me. They’re all going to be passes, though. I This is, like I said, I think I’ve had a pretty good uh read on things here the past few weeks. I spent more time digging into stuff this week, coming away with very little that I was interested in put uh investing too much money in. So, uh it will be a light card for me this week. Again, outrights Chris in top fives on Chris Kirk, Alex Smallley, Lee Hajes, and one top 20 play on Ben Griffin. Good luck with all your bets this week. Thanks for watching and listening to Long Shots. Reminder, it is up on YouTube if you are listening to this in your car right now, maybe and on your way to work. Uh all of our stuff can be found on YouTube. We do use some visuals from some of the websites we talk about as well. So check it out. Um you know, leave us a thumbs up. Uh leave us a rating if you can. We appreciate it. Any comments you got, uh I leave them there. You should tweet them at us, though, for sure, too. That that is definitely the way that uh me, Matt, and Wes will find you close uh quicker. So uh what is it? Wes Reynolds1, MattbrMM2, Kelly Bidlin. Remember everybody’s Twitter accounts. It’s pretty impressive. Uh, von.com for all of our bets as always and Wes’s great writeups. Definitely want to check those out. Uh, until next week, I’m Kelly. See you later. [Music] Yeah. Make a putt, Grazerman. You’re killing it. [Music]