John Deere Classic: Nationality Props Summary
This transcript captures a podcast discussion between [Sleepy J] and [Dave Essler] regarding nationality-based betting props for the John Deere Classic. The conversation presents analyses, player form, and strategic reasoning for betting choices across Oceania and Japanese golfers, with mention of broader Asian golfer props.
🎯 Conclusion
Sleepy J recommends Jason Day (-200) for Top Oceania in a 3-man field, citing his strong historical performance at the course (never missed a cut in six attempts, 3 top-25s) and the poor form of competitors Carl Villips and Endicott. Dave Essler supports Ryo Hisatsune (+135) as Top Japanese, despite a prior week setback, due to consistent form and a limited 4-man field. Sleepy J suggests that Ryo might also be a valuable pick for Top Asian, referencing the poor form of Siwoo Kim and Sungjae Im, potentially yielding greater odds (~+700). The conversation centers on calculated risks and identifying inefficiencies in limited-field nationality props.
📌 Key points
🟩 Jason Day dominance: Sleepy J strongly backs Jason Day (-200) for Top Oceania due to his flawless record at the course (0 cuts in 6 starts, 3 top 25s).
🔻 Endicott’s struggles: Cited by Sleepy J, Endicott missed the cut in 4 of his last 5 events, and 8 or 9 of his last 10–11, making him a non-contender.
🚫 Villips untested: Carl Villips has no experience on the course and is in poor form (cut in last two events).
🇦🇺 Oceania prop narrowed: Only three golfers — Day, Villips, Endicott — make this a focused bet, increasing predictability.
🇯🇵 Ryo Hisatsune value: Dave Essler picks Ryo (+135) as top Japanese, based on form and competitiveness despite recent slip.
💔 Hideki’s interruption: Ryo had a promising run last week until Hideki Matsuyama’s resurgence and his own Saturday falter derailed it.
📊 Small Japanese field: Just four players, making Ryo’s bet highly feasible based on current form.
💡 Top Asian angle: Sleepy J notes that poor form by Siwoo Kim and Sungjae Im opens opportunity for Ryo to place top Asian — potentially at +700.
🧠 Betting strategy: Sleepy J suggests using Jason Day in multi-bets to reduce juice, indicating high reliability.
💬 Podcast rapport: Mutual recognition of each other’s bets and friendly persuasion underscore the collaborative approach to wager insights.
📚 Summary
[0:00–1:19 | Sleepy J on Jason Day for Top Oceania]
Sleepy J selects Jason Day (-200) in a 3-player Oceania field, citing his course history (never missed cut in six appearances, 3 top-25 finishes) and the poor form of competitors Carl Villips (2 recent missed cuts, no course experience) and Endicott (8–9 missed cuts in last 10–11 events).
[1:20–2:17 | Dave Essler on Ryo Hisatsune for Top Japanese]
Dave backs Ryo Hisatsune (+135) as the top Japanese golfer. Although Ryo faded late last week, he was in contention (top 10–15 after Friday), and the field is short (4 players), supporting the bet based on Ryo’s form.
[2:18–3:09 | Sleepy J on Ryo for Top Asian]
Sleepy J builds on Dave’s pick, suggesting Ryo might offer even better value as Top Asian due to weak performance from Siwoo Kim and Sungjae Im. He recalls Dave’s similar prop last week and supports the idea of stretching it beyond Japanese to Asian markets, aiming for +700 value again.
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Uh props. Let’s get into those there. Uncle Dave, I have one nationality prop. This probably won’t come to uh as much as surprise as some may think. Uh top Oceanana. I’m going with Jason Day minus 200. So I’m I’m getting chalky with this one. It’s only a three-man field, so it’s Jason Day, Carl Phillips, and uh Indicott has not only been great this season, but this course he’s never been cut at, and he’s been here six times. Three top 25 finishes. Phillips never been here before. He’s been cutting his last two events. So, not in really good form with him and Endicott. He’s never been good here. I mean, this guy was 66 cut, but he’s been cutting four out of his last five events. And if you go through and you just look a little bit deeper with Endicott, he’s been cutting like I don’t know what it was, like eight eight or nine out of like his last 10 or 11. He’s just not good. So, Jason Day is the cream of the crop here. I normally don’t say use golfers in in like parlays and stuff like that, but I really think Jason Day if you’re looking to go ahead and limit, you know, the juice that you have to lay, then you could plug them into some type of a bigger juice, you know, wager that you’re looking at. But I’ll play top Oceanana there, Uncle Dave. That’s my prop. Jason Day minus 200. And that’ll be over Carl Phillips and Endicott. Forget his first name, but uh those that’s what I’m going with.
Uh you know, once burned, twice shy. I’m going to get back up on this horse. top Japanese uh Rio Hizatsuni and I had him on a similar bet last week and of course Hideki decided to have a good week. Uh but other than that he played well. Uh didn’t have a great Saturday but you know he was he was in the top 10 or 15 there after Friday. Uh but he was competitive for two and a half rounds and actually had a good chance of cashing that nice ticket. I mean, it was it was plus 700. So, you know, those don’t those don’t happen every week until he faded. And it’s a short forman field that he’s in top Japanese. And he’s just far and away the best player in the group uh with good form. So, at plus 135, I know it’s not sexy, but you know, if we’re looking for sexy, we’re uh we’re probably looking the wrong way if we want to make money. So, I took Rio plus 135, top Japanese golfer this week. interest in there, Uncle Dave, because I was looking at that same wager and I said, “You know what? Uncle Dave might actually make this one.” But I was actually gonna try to convince you to take him to be the top Asian. And the reason I say that is because if you look at Siu Kim and you look at Sunjm and you look at their stats, they’re not good. Those guys just are not playing good golf at all. So, I was thinking maybe that that would be a sneaky pick because I thought that you gave out the same wager last week as top Asian and I had a feeling that you might shrink it down. I actually think I’m not saying it’s a mistake, but I would actually say that I actually think the Top Asian is probably, you know, a wager that you might want to look at because you might end up getting that that seven to one odds that you got there last week. So, I was in uh in full support of that one. But, uh, there’s our nationality props.
