🏌️ John Deere Classic – Winner Predictions Podcast Summary
This transcript from a golf betting podcast features an in-depth discussion between hosts Sleepy J and Dave Essler on their top picks for the upcoming John Deere Classic. It highlights the analytical process behind their player selections, using performance metrics, betting odds, and course history to justify their predictions.
🎯 Conclusion
The podcast provides two contrasting approaches to selecting winners: Sleepy J opts for top-ranked players Ben Griffin and Jason Day, emphasizing consistent form and strong finishes, while Dave Essler takes riskier flyers on lesser-known but statistically compelling picks like Luke Clanton, Lee Hodges, and Jacob Bridgman. Both agree on Denny McCarthy’s threat level due to his elite putting and approach stats, though neither selects him. The strategic rationale is grounded in course compatibility, historical performance, and current form, all within the scope of betting value and odds.
🔑 Key Points
📈 Ben Griffin’s Form: Five straight top-15 finishes, including a 5th at this course last year.
📊 Jason Day’s Value: At 25-1, he’s seen as a favorite offering better-than-usual odds.
🚨 Denny McCarthy Fear Factor: Despite not being picked, he’s seen as elite in putting and approach stats.
🔮 Luke Clanton’s Profile: Four top-10s in 16 events, plus strong course history despite limited appearances.
📉 Lee Hodges’ Upside: Ranked 25th in SG Total and 29th in SG Approach; also 17th in GIR.
🎯 Jacob Bridgman’s Specialty: Top-tier putter in the field, benefiting from absences of top-ranked overseas players.
🧠 Stat-Based Handicap: Clanton is in the top 10 of all handicap categories used by Dave.
💸 Par-5 Scoring Bet Tip: Dave hints at betting Hodges again as par-5 scoring leader, especially on DraftKings.
🎙 Philosophy on Picks: Sleepy avoids “dart throws” and aims for high-probability value bets.
📣 Value Talk: Even odds like 16-1 and 25-1 are seen as generous compared to usual low-value favorites like Scottie Scheffler.
📚 Summary Detallado
Sleepy J (0:00 – 2:52)
Sleepy J begins by emphasizing the podcast’s integrity—avoiding speculative or quantity-based picks. He selects Ben Griffin (16:1) based on recent form: five consecutive top-15 finishes and a previous 5th-place finish at the John Deere Classic. He notes the course doesn’t require length, favoring Griffin’s playing style. Griffin is framed as the best in the field, offering rare “value” odds for a favorite.
Sleepy J on Jason Day
Jason Day is his second pick at 25:1. Despite usually avoiding multiple favorites, Sleepy believes Day is undervalued and more dependable than others like Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, or Thorbjorn Olesen, who are deemed inconsistent. He also expresses slight fear of Denny McCarthy due to his potential, mentioning him as the only unpicked player he’d still bet in a “big guns” group wager.
Dave Essler (2:52 – 5:10)
Dave also respects McCarthy’s skills—particularly elite putting and approach metrics—but omits him. Instead, he favors Luke Clanton (35:1), a high-risk pick justified by four top-10s in 16 starts and a strong course record. Dave values this course for producing first-time winners.
Dave on Lee Hodges
Lee Hodges is his value bet at 60:1. Citing his win as a par-5 scoring leader and recommending repeating that specific bet on DraftKings, Dave points to Hodges’ high rankings: 25th SG Total, 29th SG Approach, and 17th in GIR, paired with an above-average putter.
Dave on Jacob Bridgman
Lastly, Jacob Bridgman is selected at 60:1 for his elite putting. Dave argues that Bridgman is one of the top available putters in this field, with higher-ranked players overseas. This unique opportunity enhances Bridgman’s value.
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So, with that in mind then, Uncle Dave, let’s go ahead and let’s jump into our winners. And that was why I’m going to go ahead and I’m going to give out the two favorites in this tournament because I didn’t want to go ahead and and have any dart throws. And that’s something that Uncle Dave and I kind of pride ourselves on with this podcast is we do the work and we don’t just necessarily throw out picks just for the sake of of throwing out picks. other podcast fine, they do what they want, but you know, we try not to give out too too much and try not to just go ahead and and make up a bunch of uh just to fill some time. So, I didn’t feel comfortable with a lot of guys there, Uncle Dave, this week, but I got to be honest with you, if Ben Griffin ends up winning this week after I gave him out last week, uh I’ll be sick. So, I got to do it. I got to take Ben Griffin again, 16 to1. The guy’s just been simply just too good. five straight top 15 finishes in a row. He’s only been here once and the dude finished fifth. Another guy who’s not long off the tea, but like you just talked about before, this isn’t necessarily a course that you have to be long on. And I actually am a little excited there as well there, Uncle Dave, to go ahead and see a favorite at 16 to1. You know, it’s always Scotty at plus 280. So, you never feel like you’re you’re getting anything special when you go ahead and and you bet Scotty and he wins. I mean, yeah, big deal. So, it’s plus 280, but just the fact that it’s 16 to1, it feels like a bargain. It’s probably not, but I’m going to go ahead. I’m going to take uh Ben Griffin here at 16 to1. I do think that he’s the uh he’s the the class of this entire field. And then I’m going to go with the second guy uh right behind him, and that’s Jason Day at 25 to one. Like I said, I’m just taking the two favorites here, which I never do that, but I can make a case against a lot of the guys that are right behind these guys on the odds board. I just talked about Cu, I talked about Sunj, not very good. Uh Thorson and Pop Jeter. Obviously, those guys, there’s at least a decent chance that those guys ends up letting down. And uh Denny McCarthy scares me. I I’ll be honest with you, he’s like the one guy that does scare me. JT Poston and Thompson and and Clanton, I I just don’t see it. I don’t know if there’s a big guns wager out there, but if there is that includes McCarthy Day and Griffin, even if it’s, you know, like a plus 280 or something like a Scotty Price or something like that versus the Field, I would probably go ahead and do that because Denny McCarthy does scare me a little bit. But I’m not going to go ahead and just give out, you know, three, four winners. I’ll just give out two like I usually do. So, I’m going to go ahead and take the two favorites here. I feel like I’ll have a horse at the end of the race, maybe both of them coming down the stretch there. So, it is chalky, but hey, I’m getting 16 to1, which I normally don’t get, and I’m getting 25 to1, which I normally don’t get when we look at the favorites. So, I’m taking Griffin. I’m taking Jason Day. That’s where I’m at there, Uncle Dave. Those are my two winners. What do you got? Yeah, I mean, McCarthy scares me too a little bit. And I I don’t know why I don’t have him. So, you know, somebody out there might want to use him somewhere. He’s uh you know he’s an absolute elite putter and his approach shots are are are up there with the best of him. So you know yeah he’s a definitely a guy that uh if he won would not surprise me. But you mentioned Luke Clanton and I did take him at 35 to1 and I don’t know why it’s only in a field like this when a player who’s never won has odds that short but he’s also top 10 at this course uh in event history. Now that’s not saying he’s been there five years but he does have a track record here. This is also an event where there’s been a ton of first time winners. So, you know, I’m not afraid to make that bet. I mean, the kid’s had four top 10 finishes in 16 events, so, you know, yeah, it’s a high variance bet, but one I don’t want to leave off. Uh, he’s also one of 11 players I found that is in the top 10 in every category that I’ve used to handicap this. So, you know, caveat mtor took Lee Hodes 60 to1. Uh, we cashed a huge ticket on him to be the par five scoring leader several weeks ago. And if you can find that wager this week, I think it’s usually on DraftKings. There’s no reason not to bet it again. But much to my surprise when I started digging here, he’s also 25th in shots gain total on tour and 29th in shots gain approach and he’s above average putter that’s 17th in greeds and regulation. So I don’t know what more you want uh to c for a guy that is listed at 60 to1. Uh, and then I threw in another guy that’s 60 to1, Jacob Bridgemond. Um, he’s just an elite putter. Uh, one of the best in shots game putting on tour that’s in this tournament. He’s probably seventh or eighth, but anybody that was was higher is, you know, already overseas getting ready for the the Irish Open and the British Open. So, yeah, Jacob Bridgeman, Lee Hodes, and Luke Clanton. Uh because I knew you’d take the chalk, sleepy, so I decided I would take the flyers.
