Tune up your mowers & tune into the John Deere Classic this weekend!
Will Ben Griffin win as the 16-1 favorite, or does Davis Thompson overcome the 35-1 odds to win the tournament back-to-back? Our experts preview TPC Deere Run, catch you up on everything PGA Tour related & give their best bets for the 2025 John Deere Classic!
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 27th stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E27).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
08:22 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
09:04 Aldrich “Jack” Potgeiter Wins the 2025 Rocket Classic
15:58 Champions Tour: Paddy Harrington Wins the 2025 US Senior Open at the Broadmoor
18:25 Caddie Notes: TPC Deere Run Breakdown
24:20 Club Twirls: 2025 John Deere Classic Picks & Predictions
25:16 The Favorites
31:00 The Mid-Range
41:32 The Longshots
49:40 The Hat Pick
50:50 Plugs + Outro
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🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the nineteenth hole we are live on in between media we are sports we are lifestyle everything in between big winners last week at the rocket classic we’re moving on to another classic in the midwest it is the John Deere classic from TPC Deer Run in western, southwestern Illinois. It’s the Midwest. Who knows? Tri-cities area between Illinois, Iowa, Des Moines, I think, is there. Who knows? But we’re having a golf tournament. They have a pretty good field here. Not the strongest field, but a lot of up-and-comers. This is when the youngsters usually win. Their first tournament is at the John Deere. We’re going to dive in. Connor Coughlin and myself right after this. yeah buddy oh I gotta put connor on the show do you want to be on the show connor I if I must yeah there he is how are you doing buddy I’m I’m here so I’m glad that you’re letting me be on the show I’d be a heck of a fifty minute wait yeah it’s it’s also necessary because I don’t think I could talk about the john deere classic solo for fifty minutes but we’re gonna with with your help we might even have some people to bet on I’m gonna give it give my old college try And so, although on this show, I didn’t mention it, maybe more one or one of the three guys I actually bet on Wednesday after the show, but, uh, I had a really good week last week, Connor. It was, uh, It was Sloan Kettering and Johnny Hopkins, and we were blazing that up every day. I had Aldrich Potkeater and Max Grazerman in the playoff with Chris Kirk. I was rooting heavily against Chris Kirk, and when he had the shortest birdie putt on the first playoff hole, I was clenching. I was clenching my butt cheeks together because I was going to be really angry if the one guy I didn’t have in the playoff on my betting card won the thing. But Chris Kirk three putted on the second playoff hole and got bounced. So I knew it was going to be their max at thirty five to one or Aldrich Potkeater at one hundred twenty to one. Thank goodness we got a little a little excited with the twenty year old gigantic South African man child. Aldrich Potkeater with a one ninety six ball speed hitting three hundred and sixty six yard tanks down the fairway. That was my rationale was there’s no penalty for hitting it. Three hundred sixty yards offline at the Detroit Golf Club. So full steam ahead with a ten dollar bet. And it was a good payday outside Thor Bjornsson and Grazerman with top five finishes. So it was a good week. The bankroll is looking tidy and I’m going to save most of it for the Scottish and the Open Championship in next week and the week after the John Deere is not going to get a lot of my bankroll, but it will get some Connor. Well, I’m glad you had a good week. And me and my infinite wisdom, I think I said something to the tune of, Gracerman, I think we missed our window, so that held up well. And I called him a stat darling at thirty five to one. Luckily, luckily, I was just like, you know what? Whatever. I put ten bucks on him and with the top five, the top five kicker was plus seven fifty or something like that. So I got a little bit of cash on that. I was way heavier on Thor Bjornsson and he just couldn’t make enough putts down the stretch on Sunday to stay in it. I made a couple of very costly bogeys that made me very angry. Yeah, I had an all-around bad golf week. I’d love to share with you probably the most embarrassing thing that’s happened to me on a golf course happened over the weekend. I took a ten on a par three with no hazards in play. Oh, that sounds like your short game was really rocking. You didn’t leave it in a bunker or anything? No. Nope. Just missed her a little wide right and decided I wanted to slide the lob wedge under the ball two times. Then trying to fix that, I bladed it about forty yards across the green and fluffed that one. Yeah, we’ve been there. Four putt. Four putt. Oh, great. Yeah. So it was a good… I also consequently finished DFL in the tournament I was playing in, so… Well, yeah, when you shoot seven over on one hole, it sets you back a little bit. And we’ve all been there. Every single one of us watching and listening that’s held a golf club have made a ten on a par three, myself included, including the whole fluff it under the ball and then blade it. Like the longest wedge shot I’ve ever hit in my life is when I was twenty yards from the hole. That’s the best time to really give it your all. I’ve found out it’s to take out the teeth of the people on the next tee box. Yeah, you’ve got to keep them alert and alive, especially in a tournament. You’ve got people out there drinking. You’ve got to fire warning shots. Just yell at four as soon as you’re lining up every shot. Four! I’ll tell you. Yeah, I just stopped looking at my bets in my DK lineups about midday Friday and then proceeded to, yeah, have probably the worst possible tournament performance of my life over the weekend. So it was a good golf week. Well, no trunk slams. We don’t do that on this show. At the same time, I do commiserate with you. Are you drinking tonight? Do you have the good old H two O going? I got, I got water with the grape again. It’s been trying to cut back during the week. Some would say maybe I’m slightly more boring, but you’re healthier. You’re insufferably boring, but you look healthy, which is good. I got good color. yeah, your, your, your cheeks have a little bit different color, better color. Um, I probably will need a water with grape, uh, pretty soon because the only thing in front of me at my desk here is a bag of hot and spicy chicharrones. Oh, chicharrones. Very salty. And I’m going to need some, I’m going to need some fluids here soon. So if I duck out of the show and let you talk for a couple of minutes, it’s because I’m really thirsty. what an incredible selection you made at the checkout somewhere the two ninety nine giant bag of chicharrones you could have had any any snack but you chose that hey man baconettes are good I don’t care what anybody says and I remember when this bag was ninety nine cents I do I remember that sad right it’s sad the snack bag was fifty cents and the big bag was ninety nine cents I was walking somebody through a guy was playing with smoking cigars. He’s like, does the smoke bother you? And I was like, no, I was a smoker for twenty, twenty years. And I said, I remember when smokes were under under like under two bucks for a pack. Now you’re paying ten. Thank God I kicked that habit. But then that that segued into the dollar for a gallon of gas conversation. And yeah, yeah, I understand. Like gas prices in California are atrocious. Like we pay a dollar more than anybody else, but it’s, I think it’s, I’m more upset that I can’t just pump my gas and go in and pay after I’m done. Now you have to prepay for everything. It’s just a pain in the butt. I like, I want to pump my gas and go in and pay the guy and have a conversation without like getting moved through so fast. Would you trust a guy that looks like you to come in and pay after he pumps? I don’t know. Absolutely. I am a very trustworthy. Look at my face. You don’t trust the guy with this face. Only a mother could love a face for the radio. Thankfully, we’re not on. We are on the radio in Western Tennessee right now. Shout out Memphis. Shout out to the B. Shout out to the Beale Pollard’s barbecue there in Western Tennessee. Listening on one of five point one. Shout out to all you. Let’s get into the news in the world of golf. They have the news Niblick right after this. All right, right off the top, it’s it’s a it’s just a great I just love writing these headlines so much. But do I have it? Yeah, there it is. Founder. Yeah, I found it. Aldrich Jackpot Gator. Oh, twenty year old, wide bodied South African One ninety six ball speed absolutely thrashes Detroit Golf Club for his first PGA Tour win. fantastic performance uh with nary a short game to be found his is off the tee game and timely putting make a lot of birdies that that’s what did it for him five whole playoff sudden death uh first playoff hole it looked like chris kirk was gonna win he got bounced in the second playoff hole with a three putt from from deep like he just left himself too much of a nasty four foot in between her. Those are the pressure ones, especially since the other two guys had already hold out for par. So his knees were buckling four feet. And yeah, that was, that was it. When Kirk, when Kirk got bounced, I was very happy because I knew I had, I had won. Uh, but Aldrich pot Gator, take it away, Connor. Like, how do you feel about this kid? If he finds a short game, what’s going to happen to the tour? Yeah. You know, I was having this conversation earlier and I, I find myself really conflicted about guys like Pocketer, like, because you look at like, you look at what he does on the season and it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it’s like, it reminds me a lot of like cam champ where, um, you get them on a course where there’s absolutely no penalty to just whack in the living, you know, stuff out of the ball. Yeah. And, uh, and, uh, yeah number one and number two and strokes gained off the t were aldrich potkeater and cam champ and guess what mattered more than anything in the world at detroit last week strokes gained off the t And so, like, I don’t know. I’m starting to come around to your, like, take on more carnage is better. Because I think there’s, like, some of this technical side of golf. Come to the dark side. And I just, I don’t know, man. Like I said, I just find myself really conflicted. I think it’s awesome that the twenty-year-old got a win under his belt. I thought the way that he and Gracerman especially handled the moment, I thought was really, like, kind of mature. So, you know, I thought as far as stewardship of the game and all that stuff, I thought that was on display rather well. I don’t dislike Pac-Eater as a guy or anything like that. I just, yeah. He’s a lot more well-adjusted than we were at twenty, that’s for sure. A hundred percent, but yeah, I gotta go back to what I was saying, and I just, I’m getting really conflicted about some of these bomb and gouge. You can get by just being able to hit a three-forty. I don’t know that I love it. It’s Yeah, it’s it’s not the type of golf I enjoy watching. It’s the type of golf I aspire to one day play because I don’t hit it three fifty like Aldrich does, but I hit it a good distance and I do have an advantage of off the tee with most of my playing partners at the club. It’s just going to come down to this guy gives himself so many opportunities to score with that off the tee game. And the way the PGA Tour is kind of routing courses these days, it encourages that style of play, especially at the Rocket Classic. This week is more of the similar thing, but a little bit more strategy involved. But really, it’s coming down to they want the excitement of the game to be around these big bombing, the gigantic club head speed, ball speed, the track man stuff that they got on the broadcast. And then… They did address Aldrich Pottkeeter’s struggles after he almost won in Mexico and Brian Campbell got the luckiest break of all time and beat him in that first playoff hole. Pottkeeter, it was a very similar tournament. For me, Mexico and the Rocket are very, very similar events. So I just saw that correlation there and I was like, whatever, let’s do it. Brian Campbell can’t camp. Campbell can’t scare us this time. Uh, Aldrich pot Gators game doesn’t fit very many golf courses. It fits at Mexico and it fits at the rocket. And he missed what seven or eight cuts in a row after that Mexico open, because the course, the courses got tougher. And I addressed that on the betting pros podcast. When I called for him to win is I said, Hey, Yeah, he played very poorly after the Mexico open loss. Like he finished second. There was a good tournament for him. I was on him there and I was heartbroken with him when he finished runner up in Mexico, but then he fell face to earth. We didn’t really bet him either because all the golf courses after the Mexico open were a lot tougher. They were a lot more strategic. They demanded good approach game. They demanded better wedge play and short game. And that’s just not his style of play. And then he went off the grid for a whole month and a little bit more than a month. He got all new clubs. He revamped his entire game around a whole new set of clubs. And he just said, hey, let’s go back to work. And I’m a professional golfer. It’s his first year as a professional golfer on the PGA Tour. He had to figure some stuff out. You missed seven cuts in a row. It doesn’t matter where you are. I believe Justin Rose back in the day missed eight cuts in a row. And look what he’s done for the last fifteen years. All the pot is young enough to do a complete ayahuasca retreat for a month, get a whole new golf clubs and come back and win his first tournament back. Uh, that’s, that’s, I think what happened, uh, it’s just this style of play is, uh, it’s going to be encouraged as we go along. And unless you’re at a major at the Memorial or Arnold Palmer classic, where you got a lot more difficult conditions, you’re going to see these types of players win more often, uh, especially at the John Deere and the rocket. Yeah. You and I were talking about it in the, in the pre-show. I mean, I think, I think that’s, I think I’m, I’m so much more gravitating towards the majors and you know, some of the signature events, just that it’s not that I don’t like, you know, cause I like this style of golf too, to some extent, especially like in these lesser fields, like I like some fireworks. So it’s not all bad, but it’s just kinda, I don’t know. It’s very happy Gilmore ask you, right. It’s just kinda like a, kind of gimmicky feeling to some extent to me. But to your point, he’s twenty years old. He’s been able to course correct a little bit as he’s demonstrated. So, you know, he give him give him another couple of years and he can round out some of that short game, especially the wedge play. And I mean, he could be a super dangerous player. So he could he could be absolutely unstoppable if he gets a short game. It will cross our fingers. I’d love to see him just be like well-rounded bomber. That’d be great. That’d be cool. Yep. All right. And we had a major on the Champions Tour this last week at the Broadmoor in your old stomping grounds in Colorado. Yes, sir. I believe which is near Colorado Springs, if I’m not mistaken, just on the foot of the Rocky Mountains. And gorgeous property. It was really fun to watch on TV because that place is immaculate. Patrick Harrington, Patty from our sacred grand of Ireland, took home the championship despite losing a golf ball that Roger Maltby did not help him look for. He still won. Great performance for the Irishman. Won by a shot. Didn’t hurt him that he lost a ball and played his provisional. That was kind of a non-story. I chuckled a little bit on Friday when that came out that Roger and Patty had words after the tournament because Roger saw it go into the deep fescue and was like, that ball’s gone. It just kept walking. Yeah, the exchanging of words looks a little more heated than I think maybe it was. Yeah. I think Patty just wanted a little more courtesy, like a little look-see from Roger before he went on his way. But yeah, Roger had a point. That ball was gone, gone. They were never going to find that ball. And in that part of the world, man, I got a couple of rules. And my most important one is, is I don’t go in any grass taller than the sole of my shoes. So if you don’t need to go try and search for something, then you don’t. Yeah. My, my rule is ankle deep. I got to go a little bit deeper, but yeah, if it’s, if it’s tall grass, like where he hit the ball, I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. You shouldn’t have to need an on-course reporter to help you look for a golf ball. You tee up your provisional, you look for ten minutes that you’re required to do, and then you just play the provisional. You don’t need Roger’s help. Roger’s been doing this a long time, just like you. He was a pro just like you. It’s just silly. It was silly. Yeah, take your anti-venom in there with you, though. Oh, for sure, yeah. Those rattlesnakes really love it this time of year, hiding in the shade. especially down there. Oh, yeah. So congrats to our favorite Irishman on the Champions Tour, Padraig Harrington. Do you have any other words for that now? No. All right. as per usual you did a brilliant job sir okay well I’m doing a brilliant job of making myself thirsty so I’m gonna hit this drop for caddy notes you’re gonna wax as poetic as possible about tpc deer run in sylvis illinois I’m gonna grab some sweet tea out of the fridge I don’t even think I know you anymore, by the way. Chicharonas and Sweet Tea. It’s some kind of a night over there. Anyway, John Deere Classic, TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois. It’s par-seventy-one, seventy-two hundred and eighty-nine yards. Bentgrass Fairways, Bentgrass Greens. Yeah, this is a… So I’ll start by saying it’s a pretty unremarkable course. The field is okay. I wouldn’t say it’s over the top. I think what we usually see at this event, Bo alluded to it earlier, is a lot of volatility. You see a lot of random people just pop up or guys that don’t normally put four rounds together all of a sudden put four rounds together. So, but anyways, back to the course, very gettable course. I personally think it’s actually kind of a pretty walk. It’s, it’s, you know, some rolling hills and it’s kind of a lot of undulation elevation change throughout the place. So I don’t think it’s an ugly course by any stretch. I just wouldn’t say that there’s anything terribly difficult about it. It is tree lined. So it does take slightly more, more control hitting fairways than what we saw last week. but typically that really hasn’t been much of a struggle for the field. The greens are very large, but they do have some kind of challenging slopes and undulations to them. And they have a tendency to put the pins in some really challenging spots. So it’s a little trickier than what it would look at at first glance. um but yeah I think honestly if I had to be fair the course’s biggest defense probably is the elevation changes throughout it so that there’s quite a few kind of blind landing spots um kind of some weird weird angles you’ve got to play as a result so um I think that if you do have the ability to get out and get some practice rounds in get familiar with the course I think it does give you a pretty decent edge knowing where to hit and how hard to hit as I said it’s a little tricky on some of those blind blind shots but Ultimately, I think this course kind of proves year on year that the guys who have the best approach from about a hundred and twenty five to one hundred and fifty and then two hundred plus to help handle the three par fives that are on the property tend to rise to the top. So it’s a bit of a bit of an approach and a putting fest to some extent. Always, always scores pretty, pretty well. I think the average here typically is somewhere around twenty two under if memory is serving me right. Yep. Except for last year, Davis Thompson went twenty eight under, which is an average of seven under par per day, which I actually think we get something probably closer to that here. Last year, there was even a little bit of wind and some moisture early in the week. This year, it’s really not calling for that. It’s humid and hot. Yeah. Low nineties. Humid. Pretty miserable, pretty miserable walk, I think. But outside of that, I think the course should be pretty darn gettable. So yeah, I would expect probably mid-twenties to be the winning score and probably a cut. I’d say somewhere in excess of four under, probably coming up on five, six, maybe. I look to filter by strokes gained electrolytes because they’re going to need all this. They’re going to need all the hydration they can get here, but I couldn’t find it. As you sip your water. Yeah, strokes gain vibes. I think it’s a very much a second shot golf course with how wide the fairways are. You can’t be too far out of position. Like last week, it didn’t matter what position you were in. If you’re down there with a wedge in hand, you could make some birdies. This takes a little bit more strategy, a little bit more short game because some of the hazards are firmly in play here. They’re just not that much in play. Last week, the hazards are there for aesthetics and there was no danger. This week, you have a few holes where the hazards are actually in play and affecting where you aim your second shots. But it’s still generally gonna be a birdie fest, one to under par. It’s going to be pretty fun to watch for, if you like, not carnage. Or if you like the charities in the Tri-City area, because this event is huge for charity, which is a great part of what the PGA Tour does on their rounds through the country every year. The John Deere is one of the longest standing tournaments, and this golf course does accommodate as well as any golf course on the PGA Tour, period. And like I said, if you live in the Midwest or like the Midwest aesthetic or whatever, I do think it’s a pretty course and it’s very well maintained. And they got the cool tractors as T markers. And they always have large equipment on the property. So, I mean, there’s some good sites to see. And we do get to see some of these lesser-known guys actually going at it, which is kind of nice. We’ll talk about a few of them when we get over into the betting segment. But, yeah, there’s some young bucks here that, you know, might make some noise. So that could be entertaining to watch too. So I don’t think it’s a total scrap of a tournament, but it’s – It’s not not near the excitement we’re going to have for the next couple of weeks after this one. Yeah, we’re still looking forward to the Renaissance Club next week. And of course, the Northern Ireland in a couple of weeks. That’s going to be great. But we still got to bet on some golf. We still want to bet and win on golf again this week. Honor, you got to get up the schneid. I need I need you locked in, sir. So locked, locked, locked in. Let’s bet on golf. Let’s twirl some clubs. Are you ready, Connor? Because I’m ready. I got my sweet tea. I’m ready to rock. Bombed it right down the fairway. Oh, yeah, I’m sure. DraftKings Sportsbook is what we’re using. You can use whatever books you’d like. The odds are not that different this week. Uh, they’re not all that favorable this week because our betting favorite is Ben Griffin. Who’s playing great golf this season. No mistake about that. Sixteen to one Ben Griffin, however, seems like a stretch. Does it not Connor? I don’t know if it does. I like, I see that this is where we’re slightly different. It’s much, much, much, much, much shorter than I would love to be paying for Ben Griffin, but. But he should win, right? Yeah, he should win. I mean, he’s playing out of his head right now. And every statistical model I ran, and trust me, I ran quite a few trying to figure this one out. I was running them just trying to get rid of them. Yeah, I couldn’t get him out of the top spot. He’s number one in approach. He’s number three in putting. It makes more birdies than anybody else in this field. Excels on the par five ranges of this course, five fifty to six hundred. He’s third in the field, number one in DraftKings points scored. in the proximities that we’re looking at. I mean, he’s green across the board. I’m a green light on Ben Griffin at sixteen to one. It’s short, but the boy’s having a heck of a year and I see him keeping it rolling here. Au contraire, mon frere. I got Ben Griffin at twenty first in my model, which makes him not a go at sixteen to one. I wish he was twenty five to one. That’s where I’d probably bet him. But he’s not. He’s way too short. He’s probably going to get shorter as we get closer to lock. Unfortunately, because he is such a better golfer at this stage of the season than everybody else in this field. More consistent for sure. But where I have him not well is on approach from seventy five to one hundred and fifty yards. He is outside the top one hundred in this field by how I filter my model. And I also filtered those approach proximities as the heaviest in this field because it’s a second shot golf course. So where he does make a lot of birdies, he, he crushes par fives and par fours. He’s got a really good short game. He’s accurate off the tee. His short iron approach has not been good, especially when you, when you need to score a lot of birdies. I am a hundred and twenty second from seventy five to a hundred, a hundred and eighteenth from a hundred to one twenty five and one forty ninth in this field. from one twenty five to one fifty. You got to lay up the chicharrones or something, man. There’s something or something wrong with you tonight. This guy, he’s green at every other category. This guy has gained no less than three strokes on approach since May. Every tournament he has played in since May, he has gained a minimum of three strokes on approach. Like his approach game is nails. Now, you could be some of those wedge ranges, maybe. But even like the short around the green wedge game, he’s he’s averaging one point six strokes gained in his last eight starts. I mean, I say that with the caveat that he is still twenty ninth and strokes gain approach, which is a lot better than one hundred and something. on those three proximity distances. I think what we’re running into is he’s not good at hitting it close with the short iron, but he’s making so many putts that he’s gaining strokes anyway. And where, yeah, I could look like a fool and say Ben Griffin, don’t bet him at sixteen to one. But if he somehow slips, which he’s not going to, then obviously you can bet him he’s the class of this field. I just would rather spend what little I am going to spend on this week on Danny McCarthy all the way at twenty eight to one. more consistent golfer with a more well-rounded game uh not quite as hot as ben griffin but if you look at everybody else’s field consistency wise making top tens uh I think denny mccarthy is a better value in this field at twenty eight to one than is ben griffin yeah I I I like denny at twenty eight um I had to make a choice. If I’m being honest, I had to make a choice between the two of them. I like Ben Griffin a little bit better because I really wanted to, I really want to put some money on Michael Thorpe Bjornsson, but not to get off of Denny that quickly. Like Denny, absolutely to your point, very consistent on approach. He’s got a bit of a hot hand right now. Been playing good golf. Putter is always amazing. So when you talk about the shorter approach ranges and a bit of a putting contest, Denny McCarthy, we’ve said it time and again, should rise up. He’s just a solid all-around player, and he’s just as good as Ben Griffin, if not better, over the course of their entire careers. Griffin’s kind of a renaissance story this year where he got a little bit more speed in his game, and it turned his whole entire career around. Denny’s been consistently good the last two and a half, three years. So I’ll take Denny. You can take Griffin. We can do a beer bet if you want to adjust him for odds. I don’t care. I’ll do it straight up with you. because I do like both of them. I just like the value on McCarthy a little better. No, no, I totally get it. I totally get it. Deviled Advocate is probably my middle name. That’s a long middle name, but that’s what I like to do. I mean, and hey, over the course of the last month, you are riding the hot hand, so maybe I should tail you. Proceed with caution, because your MO is that as soon as you’re off somebody, they win, and as soon as you’re on somebody, they miss the cut. So… if you start if you start having more confidence in my bets then that means something’s gonna go terribly wrong yeah I’ll just pay off your bets and then yeah we figure out how to but we’ll we’ll balance it out it’ll just cycle back around where you’ll get hot eventually and it’ll it always goes in cycles do you like anybody else in that like short range to forty to one or shorter Uh, four to one or shorter. Yeah. Um, like I said, Michael Thorpe Brunson, I, I, especially, so I, I was, I kind of gave you a little bit of pushback last week on him about the birdies and bunches and he actually really got it going. Um, which was, which was nice. Right. Because like, I think we both, I think we both always have said that like this guy is, you know, part of the future of golf and just kept waiting and waiting and waiting for him to get it going. And if you look at what he’s done this year, Not great. But, but last week, I think, I don’t know if it’s a combination of the field, a combination of being able to swing pretty free at the rocket. I don’t know what it was, but I mean, he was definitely got the driving distance too. Yeah. And he had a great week. And I mean, even his approach was pretty decent last week, which has kind of been a little bit of a problem for him most of the season. Putter got super hot. I mean, he made almost everything he looked at. So in this field and with him at thirty to one and riding a little bit of a hot hand, I do like going back to him this week. Yeah. Again, this week is throwing me through a loop because I got Thor Bjornsson just last week. It’s seventy. At seventy to one and his top five number that I cashed was plus seven fifty or plus nine plus eight hundred something like that. And now we’re getting thirty to one for Michael Thorpe Yarnson on a course that doesn’t fit his game quite as well as last week. It’s really making it hard for me to believe in him at that number. I can hope that he slips to thirty five or forty. I’d be amazing because I do love Michael Thorpe Bjornsson a lot, especially in the strokes game caddy department, which was another argument I had last week. Outside of Ted Scott, there is not a better caddy on this planet than J.J. Jakovac. Colin Morikawa letting go of J.J. was the dumbest thing he’s ever done in his whole career. And that’s saying something. Agreed. Yeah, I thought Cal Bears were pretty smart in general. Guys that go to Berkeley, generally smarter guys. Colin, that was dumb. Yeah. First tournament with JJ on the bag and Thor Bjornsson pops the top five. What does that tell you about Colin Morikawa, who played pretty well, just didn’t make enough birdies to stay in it at the end, but he should have won that tournament last week. He probably would have if he still had JJ on the bag or even Joe Greiner. Well, not to go on a segue about Morikawa, but Morikawa’s got to figure out putting, and he’s got to figure out what putter he wants to use. Now he’s got some prototype putter that he put in play. Like, I… It was definitely better than his first round. He lost four strokes putting with the blade putter on Thursday and then ended up flat for the rest of the week with the mallet. The mallet that looks identical to an Odyssey that he played in college. It’s the same putter that JT uses shape-wise, but that’s not exactly a resounding endorsement either for putting prowess this season. No, I got the Scotty that JT uses, and trust me, as I alluded to earlier, four-putted. So it’s not a fix-all. No, of course not. Yeah, Luke Clanton interests me a little bit at thirty-five. We talk about him every week, so I don’t need to really beat the drum on that. Oh, but his Sunday, oh my goodness, was that bad. Yeah, and I think, again, young guy, growing pains, all that. He’s just volatile. He’s so aggressive. When he’s off, he’s way off. But, again, he’s one of those guys, especially in this field, looking at the names on the top here. Luke Clanton is every bit. golfer than any of those guys are in my opinion so if he doesn’t have a nuclear bad one round he’s right there in the thick of it with everybody else last week so yeah maybe he pulls puts it together and doesn’t implode on sunday this week and and can do it for us yeah not gonna quit him so but uh that’s it for me in that range I can’t quit michael kim michael kim yeah michael kim is forty to one Michael Kim won this tournament way back in twenty eighteen. It was a whole different world. He was a different player back then. But Michael Kim is a really good golfer. And he’s having a really good season. And he’s got some good vibes here. Even though he’s missed the cut here recently, that was before he was having this season where he’s figured a lot of things out about his game. Going in from his Twitter account, he’s excited to go to the John Deere. He might be the most excited golfer to play the John Deere this week because A, this is where he got his first PGA Tour win. And B, he’s playing better than he ever has before. I think Michael Kim could do this absolutely at forty to one. especially with how the stats line up. He’s made so many improvements over last year and in years previous. The John Deere might not be able to contain how low he can go. Yeah, I was on him last week. I’m going to keep riding with him this week, too. And really, he’s been having a pretty good year. So nothing to really add to what you said. I think it’s a pretty decent number on him. A little apprehension just based on the tournament history here. He has missed the cut the last four times he played here. Not great, Bob. But he did win seven years ago. Yeah, so it kind of erases the four missed cuts in a row. It’s a wash. It’s a wash. And he’s having such a great year. um but yeah no I I’ll ride with you on that one I like that all right and for mid price that’s all I have so fire away at your guys and I’ll I’ll retort with why I’m not quite there on some of them well bud collie’s been kind of moving he’s we love bud collie we love bud collie friend of the show Now he’s at forty. So he’s right there to just again, rate it out well for me. Does a lot of the things I was looking for here. Number one in one hundred to one twenty five proximity. That’s a good that’s a good step. Number one. Yeah, he – and that popped quite a bit. He also scores – he’s in the top ten for the par five scoring range that we’re looking at. He’s been putting up a fair amount of birdies as of late. And then he’s seventh in overall approach, so on a second-shot golf course. But Kali, I definitely like him, and I kind of like where he’s been kind of trending off and on this season. He’s just – Not making a ton of noise. We saw him pop third at the Charles Schwab, um, twenty-fifth at the Travelers last time out. Um, but had a nice little run back in March with the players in Balspar and Valero. So, um, I think, I think he’s just somebody that really goes kind of a little bit unnoticed, um, in how well he’s playing this year. Not here. Not here. We love Bud Colley. We love Bud Colley. um so yeah I’m gonna I’m gonna roll bud collie out I I like how he sets up here um I think this is a field that he could really make some noise in so yeah I that out of the the guys on the show sheet that you’ve listed I am most in on bud collie especially if he slips a little bit more which he could with some of the guys around him Um, probably going to take a, I’m, I’m the next two guys I’m going to talk about. I haven’t pulled the trigger on, but they’re just guys on my radar. Um, I’m looking a lot at Hubbard. Um, looked great last week. Looked great last week. I believe that he’s done fairly decently here too. Yep. Yeah. He’s, uh, he’s, yeah, he’s, he’s got a pretty good track record here. So And Hubbard, we talk about Hubbard sometimes, too, in the same vein that we talk about McCarthy, where it’s, you know, some of these shorter approach mechanics and just having him get a little bit hot with the putter. He’s that same type of player when he’s firing on all cylinders, albeit not as good a putter as Denny. But no, but he’s still a decent putter and overall a good short game. He’s struggled with short iron approach this season, but historically he’s been streaky in that area. And the putter, I mean, going back to the putter, too, right now, it’s been super hot. I mean, he hasn’t lost strokes going all the way back to, again, March. Like, he’s gaining strokes week on week. He’s off the tee game, which is something we don’t typically associate with Hubbard, gaining strokes. Top ten for good drives gained. That’s good. We like that. So, yeah, there’s a lot of things to like, especially coming off that thirteen at Rocket Mortgage. So, yeah, I probably will end up pulling the trigger on Hubbard. Fifty to one is it seems short for Mark Hubbard, but we got to remember it’s a John Deere classic. Everything’s a little different this week. Everything’s a lot different. Fifty to one. Mark Hubbard, where are we right now? Is this is this a fever dream? And then I started taking a look at Lee Hodges this afternoon, too, at sixty to one, which is a deep cut, deep cut. And same lines as fever dream. Lee Hodges is sixty to one. But I was I was surprised when I ran the modeling, especially from the one twenty five to one fifty range. Hodges is in the top ten for that over the last twenty four rounds and ninth and overall approach. So he’s got a really hot hand when it comes to second shots lately. He crushes par fives, too. He annihilates par fives. Yeah, he’s good on par fives. You know, the putter is very hit and miss, but great driving accuracy. And he’s got an all right run going. I mean, he was a series of missed cuts, but Charles Schwab, he popped back. He finished fifty third, ninth at the Canadian Open, thirty fourth at the Rocket. So he’s there. He’s there. Yeah. And that’s that’s a weird thing. Like when you’re looking at the thirty fourth of the rocket mortgage, the field is better. Right. So, I mean, same same level of field that we have this week. I mean, you’re probably talking closer to top ten, top fifteen. And so at that point, you’re knocking at the door. So I don’t know. I’m justifying the Hodges a little bit, but I like I really like the par five scoring in that one twenty five to one fifty range that he excels at. Just a good chance for him to pop up a little bit. So if I told you in the year twenty twenty one that we’d be getting ninety to one odds at the John Deere Classic for one Max Homa, what would you say back in twenty twenty one? I would have told you to bet bet your mortgage entire entire house. Yeah. Right. And as we all know, Max home is having a terrible two year stretch. He’s losing eligibility in some of the tournaments. He needs the John Deere classic more than the John Deere classic needs him. ninety to one for max homa who has shown some signs of life he hasn’t put it together for more than two or three days in any tournament this year but when he has looked good he’s looked every bit as good as he has even in majors he’s looked good for a couple of days this year max homa are we are we getting enough life out of homa to throw on some dollars at ninety to one Come on, tell me there’s a chance that Max Homa can do something in this field at this tournament at ninety to one odds. I’ll throw a fiver at it, but that’s about the level of confidence I have. So gross. We got we got fifty to one homeless hubs, Mark Hubbard and ninety to one Max Homa fever dream. Max, Max Homa coming off a miscut at the rocket, which I think is an easier course, um, easier course, but it’s so gross, man. He just looks so bad at times this year and so good in just little spurts, like little, like he’ll, he’ll go out there and shoot a sixty four and then he’ll shoot seventy seven the next year. Like, uh, okay, Max, what is going on? Do you know that he has only gained strokes T to green once this year? Yeah. His approach game is off the tee game is terrible. Like terrible green. He’s only gained strokes once and it was at the Masters. The most challenging tee to green course that they’re going to play all year and he’s he’s doing great. It was also one of three times that he gained putting an approach as well was the Masters. He peaked at the Masters. Which is why he’s ninety to one at the John Deere Classic. Yeah, just wild. Throw a fiver on there. I don’t usually like betting too many long shots at this tournament, but that’s just too much. You’re putting money on the player he can be, and Max Homa is an elite golfer. He’s got some issues. He’s in his head right now. It’s all mental. And when he snaps out of it, he’s going to bounce. He’s going to bounce back and he’ll be, he’ll be up there with the big boys again soon enough. So I need a one. I don’t hate it. I mean, I, I could, I could even justify going a little, you know, throwing ten bucks out of it or something, you know? I mean, it’s not. Come on, Max. We believe in you, Max. We believe in you. Now you need to believe in you. In Silvis, Illinois. Who else? Who else we got? I saw an interesting name on here. I wasn’t on him last week, but I’m on the precipice of being on him this week. Matt McCarty. Shout out to the mix out there. Matt McCarty is a pretty good golfer. He’s still very young and inexperienced. Didn’t pan out last week for you, but I think he might be a better fit for the John Deere than the rocket. So tell me about Matt McCarty and why should we even care that this guy’s seventy to one? So, yeah, Matt McCarty, he’s like guilty pleasure of mine week on week. We know. I’ve had some luck with him, mostly in the DFS space, obviously. But, yeah, with McCarty, I wasn’t really looking that deep into it until I started filtering by the proximity buckets. And what I liked was he catapulted in the one twenty five to one fifty range all the way up to fifth in the field. um, for approach from that range, which is going to be a lot of the approach shots he’s going to see this week. And this again, over the last twenty four rounds. Um, the other thing that I like a lot about him is he’s seventh in this field over the last twenty four for birdie or better rate. Uh, we know you got to, we know you got to score here. So making that level of birdies as well as being that proficient from where I think the majority of the approach shots are going to be hit from, um, really got me turned on to him. And, uh, It’s actually a really good number on him, given his skill set at that ninety to one. Solid pick. Seventy to one. Sorry. Another guy is at ninety to one. Two guys that you have at ninety to one. One I’m on board with because he’s a good course fit. The other one I think you must be wasted on that grape water because. I can rubber stamp Chandler Phillips on a course that requires approach accuracy. But what are you doing with Sammy Valamaki? That dude is not even close to a good fit on this golf course. What is what’s going through your head, Connor? I don’t understand. Valamaki is again, last twenty four rounds, hyper focused on that one twenty five to one fifty bucket. Yeah, he’s good. Twenty ninth there in my book, in my book. Well, so he’s eighth in mine over the last twenty four. He’s fourth in birdie or better rate. He’s eleventh in putting and he’s twelfth in overall approach. Now, this is not micro filtered the way you do. This is just open. But nonetheless, that’s over the last twenty four. I think we’ve seen Valamaki contend in these lesser fields, especially on courses that don’t penalize you so much for a little wayward wayward shot here and there. um so I think ninety to one on sammy is pretty good he rates out really well for me overall I have him uh six in my modeling so um I’m gonna go back in on him we had a little luck on him last year um yeah about three minutes left in the show chandler phillips I don’t have to argue with that ninety to one for chandler phillips in this tournament it’s pretty solid I’ll do Uh, you also have both of the young Jackson’s Koi Voon and super, I can, I I’m with you on Koi Voon, super really good finish last week. I think he’s more of a bomb and gouge guy than Koi Voon is Koi Voon’s what much more well-rounded. So I can get on board with that one at a hundred to one on each of them. Uh, I have Carl Phillips at triple digit odds, and that’s an auto bet for me. where last week at the Rocket, very similar to the Mexico Open with obviously the correlation there with Bomb and Gouge. John Deere is very similar to the Puerto Rico Open, which is the same kind of Bomb and Gouge, but a little bit more strategy and approach game focus. And who won the Puerto Rico Open this year, Connor? Was it Carl Phillips? And we pretty much guaranteed victory that week, and it came through for us. One of the most surefire things we’ve ever said, like both of us. And that was seventy to one. That was seventy to one in a very similar strength field on a very similar golf course. A very similar winning score. And Carl Phillips won by three or four shots that week at seventy to one odds. We cashed the whole ladder this week at the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Illinois. Carl Phillips is one hundred and fifty to one. you’re going to have to take out a third mortgage to get me off of Carl Phillips this week. Um, I have some concerns, but at one hundred fifty to one, you can shove them. And I see and I see the correlations and I and I know the player that Carl Billups can be. So I’ve done way dumber stuff with five bucks. I’m going to go ahead and ride with Carl again this week as well. So no, it’s too sweet. One hundred fifty to one. Get out of here. You can’t hear. All right. Winning score. And who does it? This is a wide open tournament. Nobody knows who’s going to win. Very few people even care who’s going to win. Well, if you care, according to the hat, Denny McCarthy is going to win the hat. The hat drew lucky number thirty seven, which is thirty seven. Thirty seven is Nick Hardy for me. Not bad. I don’t hate that either. Yeah, Nick Hardy, if he can figure out how to make birdies on par fives and find a short game where he’s one hundred forty ninth, we can do OK. I think I think Ben Griffin, twenty five under. I’ll say Denny McCarthy, twenty six under. First round leader. I’m going to go. Dorm Yardson. I will go with Luke Clanton. First round leader. I like that, too. Yeah, he’s he’s bound to shoot a seventy nine one of these days, but it won’t be Thursday. Mr. Burke, we’ll we’ll give the hat a better cameo next week when we have a little more time. Yeah. Thank you for joining us for the John Deere classic here on the nineteenth hole live. As always, next week is the Scottish Open from the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. The sacred grand is going to be a good one. Going to be a great one. Bye, everybody.
