US Open 2025 PGA DFS Picks & Strategy | Best DraftKings Golf Lineups

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Join us for a first look at DraftKings PGA DFS strategy for The US Open Tournament 2025! We’re breaking down early PGA DFS picks, top value plays, lineup construction tips, and what you need to know to build winning DFS golf lineups for this weeks event!

00:00 PGA DFS Picks
2:30 Top Tier
11:00 Midrange
16:30 Salary Savers
21:00 Lets Build

Whether you’re entering the Millionaire Maker or single entry contests, this DFS golf strategy show will help you gain an edge before salaries adjust and ownership projections sharpen.

🔍 First look at DraftKings pricing
🏌️‍♂️ Early PGA DFS Picks & Player Pool
📊 Strategy for large-field GPPs & cash games
💰 High-upside value plays & fades

📅 US Open Tournament DFS content all week long – don’t miss out!
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what’s up everybody benzi here for Stochastic PGA Strategy Show US Open edition you know it’s a major serious business we got a lot of players we’ve got Oakmont we’ve got the rough we’ve got players saying that an 18 handicap would shoot 150 maybe that’s true what do I know what we do know is that we’ve got an incredibly difficult course ton of money to be made in the DFS streets in a field worth breaking down that’s what we’re going to do we’re going to use the tools we’re going to use our hopefully knowledge of these players and we’re going to build some lineups right here go through the players strategies all that good stuff sit back let’s get to it if you’ve just joined us on this channel for the first time welcome to Stoastic all things DFS picks tools breakdowns we just simply show you how to be a better DFS player hopefully results in some big wins which we’ll be highlighting throughout we’ve had some great runouts for the stochastic family lately and we’re going to keep it rolling also I’m gonna tell you about how to get involved in just a little bit but let’s start with the course you guys know the drill here we got Oakmont i just mentioned it it’s a beast obviously it becomes mysterious the mystique the legend it grows with each passing day as does the rough apparently deep rough crazy bunkers crazy sloped greens lightning fast you got to be long you got to be accurate you got to be a good scrambler you got to be a good putter you got to be a good ball striker well that sounds pretty difficult winning score you know maybe even i don’t know what do I know uh Dustin Johnson 10 years ago give or take nine years ago minus four four under it’s the US Open so let’s get that right out of the way for some people uh this is not the Masters we’re not at Augusta year after year this is a rotation so don’t look at recent history and think that that matters i think there’s some you know maneuverability about US Opens in general the style the game the temperament but Oakmont is going to be relatively new for all players now what do you actually need i’m going to say if I could only have one I’d rather have a guy that hits it further than accurate obviously I want both but I do think driving distance will be important uh scrambling certainly bogey avoidance getting up and down around the green is going to matter you’re going to have a ton of putts 11 feet for par you know you’re going to have a ton of shots very awkward distances because you’re going to be not able to get it you know if you hit it in the rough you’re not going to be able to get to the green so you’re going to have like 60 yards a lot of times uh for birdie stuff like that can you get up and down from those so short wedges things of that nature obviously I want my guys to putt but it’s very high variance things like that some of these holes you know it’s a course that’s interesting distance-wise there’s like a 300 yard par three there’s some extremely long holes the rest of it’s very manageable it’s still par 70 it’s about 7,300 yards give or take so nothing crazy there i don’t think it’s a week where there’s some gimmick you got to play well you got to know what you’re doing you need the skills let’s get to the players that’s what we’re here for let’s start with uh who should we start with how about Scotty Sheffler oh yeah um so they just keep going and I I’d say this is crazy but they they 14,400 never thought I’d see the day but Scotty Sheffller has won three of his last four tournaments uh it’s a situation so we can talk about all the nuances i’m not going to get into Sheffller’s game he’s the best player in the world and all that but I was talking with a friend about this sheffller’s price is somewhat irrelevant honestly because if he wins whether he’s 128 or 133 or 144 or 151 you need him that’s a fact if he doesn’t play well there’s not going to be many scenarios where you’re like man if he was only 128 this would have worked like if if he has a bad showing you’re probably in trouble regardless uh now of course yes it puts more strain on the rest of your five golfers but other than that it’s kind of irrelevant for this price point because if he hits his ceiling which is just winning once again there is no price where it’s like oh he was too expensive you’re going to need him uh now if he comes in and it’s very early on a Wednesday these numbers can and will update if he’s that popular there’s no possible way that I get over the field i’m going to have him in the pool because I think you need to um but what an interesting situation’s developing here because Rory Mroy you know after the Masters probably if you would have told me who’s going to be the most popular golfer at all you know at each major Rory would have been on the short list and he was terrible at the PGA and he was even worse in Canada he was I mean that was maybe his worst ever performance on tour what does it mean i don’t really know what I do know is that he’s going to be underowned because of this uh if you think he bounces back quickly is a great buy spot um you know recent form is not good so it’s either something or nothing it’s very hard to tell he was so bad in Canada i mean he lost strokes in all four categories i Rory’s going to be squeezed there’s no doubt about it because Bryson is right below him bryson’s going to be extremely popular as well we know what he can do obviously we’ve seen him uh and Rory duke it out just last year at the US Open Bryson was the winner um Bryson’s got a kind of a formula which is I’m gonna I don’t want to paraphrase he’s a lot smarter than me but basically if we’re all going to be in the rough I want to be closer to the hole uh and he has done that very effectively a pair of times in US Opens i’m indifferent to the play i do I still think that there’s a lot of ways Bryson gets himself into a lot of trouble um but he’s shown the ability to handle these conditions he thinks about the game in the right way which translates to US Opens i guess what I’m saying is most of my interest is going to be on balance plays i’m fine with any of them relative to their ownership you know Rory it won’t be hard for me to get over the field if he’s 5% you know I could have 10% 12% jeffler on the other hand I might have 30% and I’m shorting him um Bryson I anticipate I’ll be around the field if he comes in 25 30% owned of that nature the guy I want to talk about in terms of there’s five north of 10 john Rom is my guy this week he’s going to be extremely important he was my first bet um I got him at 12 to1 which is out there we’ll talk about some betting throughout this i think he sets up fantastic eighth at the PGA seventh uh seventh 14th at the Masters he was right there at the PGA right there with Sheffler neck andneck and he just melted those last handful of holes we know that we don’t get to see him week in and week out he’s over on live but I still absolutely like what his game kind of not represents but he’s got the right formula he can really hit it we know his T green game is good he’s an underrated short game he’s got great around the green at times he certainly can roll it there’s not many players that I trust this is you know somewhat of an opinion but standing over a six eight-footer for par I really trust Rahm in those situations i like him a lot second man in we’ll try some of those i’m going to build some lineups with you guys showcase the tools uh so stay tuned a little difficult first man in very balanced very easy uh you can do a lot with that xander’s next to him not going to spend a lot of time there i don’t have a strong take let’s go to the nines uh Morawa if you want to do it a little differently we know that he’s shown not the ability to close that’s for sure i can’t give him credit there but he’s done a lot of other good stuff he’s almost automatic off the tea um and with the ball striking so he he is someone that I I do understand um he doesn’t have a US Open but he’s got a pair of majors maybe the game’s not in that form i would rather have a slightly lower owned Abear um here’s someone with mega talent obviously he’s got no experience at most of these or limited experience at most of these places it doesn’t seem to really matter though i mean he’s someone that came right in and competed uh in majors right off the bat he was 12th at the US Open last year you know he’s contended in the Masters he seems to be a little healthier ready to go he was 13th in Canada 16th at the Memorial bombs it off the tea i worry a little about the short game but he’s just such a talent uh I’m fine with a Bear i If you make enough teams you’re going to have some teams that start with him and that’s reasonable i’d rather have him as an aggressive second personally patrick Anley every every time I talk about him I get him wrong i’m uh I struggle with him there’s no doubt about it i really liked him at the PGA Championship and he missed the cut um he’s played still decently well he makes a lot more cuts than it would seem it feels like I’m hitting miss cuts with him all the time and I’m not 9300 10% owned not going to let him define my week simple as that in the pool not that important jt is more of a wild card i think he’s got higher miscut equity i also think he has higher win equity he’s been a little mixed bag kind of all over the place also missed the cut of the PGA Championship he’s been putting great seven straight events with positive strokes gain putting but he’s got to get the rest of the game in shape fleetwood’s going to be cash viable there’s no doubt about it people are going to go to him he’s reliable i will also be going to him i know the win equity hasn’t been there and that’s putting it mildly but a guy is just very consistent and hasn’t missed the cut all year 16th at Memorial fourth at Charles Schwab made the cut at the PGA made the cut at the Masters uh 14th at the Players gains with the Iron seven straight events everything is pretty sound he can handle US Open venues doesn’t mind difficult conditions price is a little rich um but it’s hard not to like Tommy Fleetwood uh again in a DFS setting I’m fine with that uh Neman’s right below him neman could be popular i don’t think he’s going to be that popular again this ownership uh can and will update so just keep an eye on that havlin what do we do about Havlin 85 so I think this is where even in in a Oakmont where we think we know the course at the same time do we really know i think this is where you have to start making decisions about what you think the course is going to do not for your whole portfolio but for individual lineups because if you tell me that Oakmont is a torture chamber and every single player will have tremendous strain around the greens I don’t know how you get to a lot of Hofflin he has been horrendous around the green basically indefinitely even when he improves it’s still not great and when it’s bad it’s some of the worst for an elite player if you tell me that it’s just a part of the puzzle a piece of the puzzle Olin’s still a worldclass at times ball striker i mean the Irons are elite elite uh the you know off the tea game is is strong not as strong as it was but overall this is a top-notch player and he fits those type of builds so for me Havland is another guy that’s in the pool but it has to be the right conditions and I think we get that more often than not for him to be able to survive brooks obviously not going to be popular but I have no interest decki he hasn’t been nearly at the top of his game but you know crazy difficult courses long irons things like that the good Decki would thrive there now he lost nearly six strokes on the approach at Memorial i don’t really know what to make of that unlike Havland Adki is one of the most underrated around the green players so again I think it has to fit the profile really good around the green though he’s always been really good but I think he gets masked because sometimes his ball striking uh you know it kind of leans and carries him in these tournaments jane Lowry and Straka then we’ll break and I’ll talk about some of the things we got going on these two guys are going to be also cash viable these two guys are going to be super correlated to Sheffller lineups i think that’s pretty clear uh when you build Sheffler cut out the next two ranges pepper the sevens pepper what’sever left you have a lineup a duped lineup but a lineup uh it’s hard to knock either of them shane Larry is a noted hold hardcore specialist uh the guy’s always shown the ability to handle this type of stuff he’s playing pretty well his irons are maybe the hottest on tour right now and if they’re not honestly Seb Strakas might be uh because he has just been absolutely crisp with ball striking memorial the truest everything he missed the cut at the PGA but that was about it these guys have been absolutely cooking i’ll be honest if they’re north of 20 25% I’m not going to get that much of them uh I like the range but I I like Hatton a lot 76 so he’ll be a pivot for me and I think there’s some other names in the lower lower sevens that we can get to but look at the screen right now again I don’t want to say this is the end all beall but there is going to be a lot of ownership in this mid7 range connors is going to be popular heaggan and Henley make a lot of sense beith I think will be the lowest owned of the bunch but these are guys that all have some potential uh to suck up a lot of ownership and it makes sense because if you want Sheffler this is the range you kind of have to attack leverage scores here i could bring these over for you guys um again this will update with the ownership and whatnot a lot of negative leverage because of the popularity of some of these players Connors in particular but I I just want to kind of tie it in i’ve been talking through and we’re in the mid-range right now if you want this data this is all part of the data hub right here it’s all part of what we do here at Stokastic i’m going to show you you know the single lineup simulator which is one of my favorite tools where we actually build out some lineups obviously we have our sims where you can build hundreds of lineups the ROI the EV all that good stuff uh and it’s all part of the plans we have plans for everybody monthly and weekly and it shows you okay if you’re playing very casual this might be the best plan for you core and max that’s some serious stuff the best values are up there there’s no doubt but speaking of values it’s the major come on now you knew that we were going to do some good stuff for you guys 50% off PGA DFS Core Max package with the code ROM the link is in the description of this video take two seconds to click the link and at least check out what we’ve got at those packages again I I brought them up on the screen but you’re talking 50% off and you’re getting a ton of resources a ton of tools the ability to not just use the single lineup simulator but the postcontest simulator obviously the projections and the data all this good stuff stat projections clearly and you get to use the sims it is worth a shot for a major even if you come in for the week just to see what it’s about maybe you’ve used it for other sports maybe you haven’t used it at all and you’ve just seen all the screenshots floating out there i use it every single week changed my process for the better doesn’t mean we’re just going to be straight to the top of the millie that would be nice and we did see one of those a couple weeks ago uh but man it is absolutely worth it again the code is rom at checkout the link is below core or match 50% off now Tony all right look at that tony Feno I just alluded to pivots in this range tony Feno would be one of them for me uh I admit I think the guys right above him probably check slightly more boxes but if you’re talking 156 the ownership that’s a pivot I’m willing to make i actually like Veno’s game he’s made four straight cuts ball striking is not the problem putting comes and goes around the greens sneaky steady uh hasn’t been great in the best events miscut at the players missed cut at the Masters top 20 at the PGA so somewhat of a mixed bag i’m okay with that though now uh Ben Griffin no not at not at that ownership for me uh don’t really see it cam Smith if he wins I’m I’m retiring i’m becoming an accountant or something can’t can’t do that sam Burns uh he didn’t kill me last week because he came in second but he also kind of killed me because I needed him to win and he should have won now this is a tricky situation he was awesome in Canada he gained everywhere and he gained a lot he is riding the single hottest putter on tour it’s the age old question well that’s great because we need that this week but can you keep that up can you rely on a guy gaining four or five strokes putting every single week i tend to be worried about that here because it’s such a unique complex the Greens are so atypical but man he seems to be able to do it everywhere uh it’s a long-winded way of saying I’m okay with Burns i don’t love it at 15% when everyone else around him is one or two% i would make those pivots uh Feno would be a pivot for me fitzy would be a pivot for me it’s been a down year for Fitzy but I still think that at his best this is the type of golf that I want him to play in at least he needs to just get the driver and the irons kind of more in shape his short game I still trust he just had too many leaky iron weeks but he did explode at the PGA he came in eighth six strokes gained on the approach that week that’s what I’m talking about uh Sew I think if I’m looking for we’re about to hit the salary savers sew at 6,900 that checks a lot of boxes for me patrick Reed just a grinder no doubt about it i’m sure people will take some shots with Rose and the guy shows up at the biggest events i would rather play Patrick Reid interesting name here Ryan Fox maybe the hottest player on tour overall is just ripping off win after win clearly if the pricing so this is just a general tip it doesn’t mean you have to play them but for people that aren’t aware so typically the week before a major they want to get the pricing out so they put it out before the the tournament is complete so the guys that played well the previous week all look underpriced because they kind of are if they put out the pricing today Ryan Fox Cam Young Sam Burns would all probably be a few hundred higher so naturally it leads to some ownership there comes game theory question blah blah blah i prefer the next tier not tier but the next couple guys Harris English and Bobby Mack i know they might be some of the more popular 6K builds but I’m fine with that jj Spawn uh he’s been extremely good in terms of total driving fine with him you want the putting man Denny McCarthy is right there okay last couple guys here and then we’ll build the lineup and we’ll get out of here again if you have any questions on anything hit me up on Twitter Jazzrazbetss i kind of serve this as a a broadstroke here’s what I’m thinking here’s what I’m doing then I use these tools i f formulate my lineups we get at the updated latest projections latest ownership and I uh I spin the wheel and give it a shot pendreth great driver of the ball i get it ben played really well last week reliable around the green putting is always an issue good driver of the ball cameron Young going to be definitely more popular in my opinion than this because of last week scary but he does check a lot of boxes he can handle this course off the tea he’s been putting great i like him as well i don’t know how many more guys that I’m gonna need down here there are plays there’s no doubt rasmus is down here at 61 he’s a name i’m taking a shot you have to have some dark horses in the pool and this is one of mine uh he can do it he absolutely can do it he’s shown the abilities off the tea he’s shown the abilities with the putter in a specific way that he spiked putts and what I mean he’s not a consistently good putter but when he gains he gains a lot and that is something that I’m very interested in uh Ryan Gerard maybe as a flyer i’ve seen his name floated out there thunderbear I’m not really anticipating going into the fives much if at all i will straight let the tools do the work here i’ll be honest i don’t you know the leverage scores are going to be good because these guys are all like 0% owned and there’s a whole another page which I’m going to spend about 10 seconds on as you can see I don’t think there’s a lot of merit to going to these guys no matter what you’re doing with them you’re going to be over the field even if you’re playing like a 100 lineups you have these guys in like one lineup there’s no ownership down here and there shouldn’t be these guys legitimately have no chance i I would not mess around with them so to me the the drop deadad cut off is about flat six there’s a couple guys in the upper fives that are legitimate players but let’s build a lineup before we get out of here I will showcase our single lineup simulator one of the tools again promo code is rom 50% off a week or a month of core or max find the package that is best for you and you can see this is such an easy tool oh yeah I didn’t mention go he’s 57 the tools just What am I doing apologies to go and everyone watching my favorite player not my favorite play but my favorite player on tour and I do like him this week if you’re in a jam I like Pendrith i mentioned that uh I like Bobby Mack so uh yeah there there are more guys than I I said at uh at the bottom that’s that’s my fault um all right now so we got some salary savers here i’m going to go with Fleetwood i mentioned that I like him where are we at 115 i mean this could definitely be a Sheffler lineup if we I want to see what happens if we go to ROM though um and then you can always go show affordable players so you don’t have to think about logical fallacies it’s going to be a Bryson lineup and we’ve got we’ve got some extra salary so I can bump Let’s see where do I want to go do I want to go yeah I’ll kick out Fleetwood um go get a bear this is kind of interesting don’t know how this will grade out might not be well but uh so yeah you’ve got this by the way you select your parameters so like all right I’m going to play in a large contest blah blah blah press run simulation and it’s going to spit out a grade for us and if it’s positive we know we’re on the right track if it’s negative it’s not the end all beall but it gives us an indication of okay this is what we have to work with maybe we do a 2v2 maybe we use this lineup in a different type of contest things of that nature it It’s very very simple but to me the best part about it is you’re getting a picture of what’s going on so you see negative5% it’s not really where we want to be so we can always go right back to the drawing board and we can change some stuff up we can say okay let’s I like these punts let’s let’s put Sheffller in there let’s see what happens if I go with him and Neman and we’ll go show affordable players where do we want to go here we could leave some money on the table if we want or we could get up to like Straa this will be a more chalky lineup so like if you’re going to use those Sheffller lineups I do recommend maybe leaving some money on the table like I just did 400 bucks that’ll get it more unique because the Straka Sheffller correlation is going to be quite strong uh and that’s putting it mildly let’s see where this grades out i’m actually very interested to see is this better worse more of the same um and again this is just I can’t stress this is more if you’re a single entry three max not bad minus three and a half% uh you know the the real sims and the contest generator and all that stuff uh obviously you you start generating your lineups there and you’re going to have a lot i’m not going to go through this whole process but powerful stuff uh nonetheless so it’s going to be a hell of a week i couldn’t be more excited for what we’ve got in store and again I know I just said this but you have questions for me one v one hop in Discord you get that with any package but you could also tweet me i’m always happy to answer anything about how I go about using these tools you know how to get in again 50% off any core or max package code is ROM link is below or just anything golf related i love talking golf it’s a major week it really doesn’t get better than this friends so on that note my last request two requests one hit the like button on the way out please share the show all that good stuff it keeps it in front of the payw wall if you enjoy it subscribe and like I said like comment uh something nice preferably second request I want to see someone win a million dollars we saw it uh I believe at the PGA we had a million dollar stochastic winner still have that screenshot somewhere um and it was just Yeah I think it’s right here yeah right there look at that a million dollars literally a million dollars i want to see someone else run that back with the stochastic avatar this week preferably me but if it’s not me I hope it’s one of you and when it is tweet me so I can celebrate with you it doesn’t get better than that big hits on the be biggest golf weekend of the year but I’ll talk to you happy Father’s Day to all the fathers out there let’s make some money with the US Open thanks again for tuning in everyone good luck enjoy the tournament and I’ll see you next week [Music]