2025 John Deere Picks and Predictions | PGA Betting Tips, Course Preview and DFS Plays!

⛳️ Expert Golf Handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman take a closer look at betting the 2025 John Deere Classic! How are the course conditions going to look, who are some golfers that can trip you up and who should you set in your DFS lineup? Andy and Nick give their answers!

#golfpicks #pgapicks #rocketclassic

Introduction 00:00
One & Done 1:30
Course Overview 3:00
Favorite Hole 6:30
18th Hole Rating 7:26
Total Strokes Gained 8:23
Players That Can Trip You Up 11:45
Nick Borrman Offers Available 14:00
Favorite “Favorite” 15:21
DraftKings Darlings DFS Selections 17:00
Worth Longshot 19:30

📍 2025 John Deere Classic
📅 July 3–6, 2025 | 📌 TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
A field of 156 players tees off on this par‑71, 7,257‑yard course.

🌟 Featured Names to Watch
Ben Griffin (+1600) – Early betting favorite with two wins already this season.
Jason Day (+2200) – Six-time PGA Tour winner returning in top form.
Davis Thompson (+3500) – Defending champion and 2024 scoring record‑holder at −28.

📺 How to Watch
TV Coverage (all times ET):
Thu, Jul 3 & Fri, Jul 4: 4–7 p.m. — Golf Channel
Sat, Jul 5: 1–3 p.m. — Golf Channel; 3–6 p.m. — CBS
Sun, Jul 6: 1–3 p.m. — Golf Channel; 3–6 p.m. — CBS

Online Streaming:
PGA Tour Live via ESPN+ (featured group coverage starting early each day)
Paramount+ (CBS live stream)
NBCSports.com & NBC Sports App (Golf Channel simulcast)

📻 How to Listen
Tune into PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM, with free audio available at PGATOUR.com/liveaudio.

📊 Current Betting Odds to Win
Ben Griffin: +1600
Jason Day: +2200
Davis Thompson: +3500
(Odds via various sportsbooks; subject to change.)

🏆 Interesting Tournament Facts
Charity Impact: Since John Deere became title sponsor (1999), the Classic has raised over $189 million for charity.

‘Trophy House’ Tradition: Recent winners—J.T. Poston (2022), Sepp Straka (2023), Davis Thompson (2024)—stayed in the same house during their wins.

Notable Past Champions: Steve Stricker won three in a row (2009–11); Jordan Spieth first teenager to win a PGA Tour event here in 2013.

Pre‑Open Tune‑Up: The event serves as a final chance to qualify for The Open Championship and offers a charter flight to the UK on Sunday night.

📱 Hashtags for Twitter / Social:
#JDC2025 #JohnDeereClassic #TPCRun #PGA #BenGriffin #JasonDay #DavisThompson

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the 2025 John Deere Classic is here Welcome everyone to Tea Time I am your host Andy Lang being joined as always by my fellow golf betting expert Nick Borman We’re going to break down TBC Deer Run the course We’re going to go over some players that can trip you up some DraftKings darlings Nick is going to break down the total strokes gained in the top 10 in this field We’re also going to talk about favorite favorite and a long shot But as we always do Nick we do our one and done to get the show started And it is neck and neck Like we are like within like like $20,000 of of each other So what how it works is we pick a one and done We can only pick that person once a year until we get to the playoffs and then uh we get their prize money and literally like we are within just like a few thousand of each other So uh these are the weeks I feel like kind of make or break it because you’re going to have to pick some guys that are a little bit off the radar I’ll go first I’ll go Michael uh Thorbjornson He’s been really really good this entire season to be honest He’s coming up off uh he he took a break He didn’t play for like five weeks Comes back and finished fourth last week He was a runner up here last year and 17th before that So I can’t ignore those numbers Uh really really good off the tea His putting isn’t amazing but in this field you’re you’re going to have to pick somebody that’s got a little bit of a hole in their game So uh Yeah Yeah So the runner up last year the fourth place last year uh the good form this entire year makes him my pick Who are you going with
well last week I uh I went with Keegan but then I him and Haw said really I kind of wanted to do Harry Hall Well Harry Hall was the better play Uh so I kicked myself there I’m probably gonna do the same I’m gonna go with Denny McCarthy and I’ll go into a deeper dive on him later Hint hint Um but my alternative for those that want another option if you’ve already used DMAC I don’t know why you would have used DMAC but in case you did Lucas Glover good history here Uh kind of kind of thrives on this this type of course So he would be my other guy but Denny McCarthy is my guy I’m going to get into him a little bit later as to why I love him so much All right Love it Love it Agree with it as well So let’s get into the course here and we are talking TPC deer run Uh cut to the chase It’s pretty easy Par 71 just over 7250 yards They got pretty wide fairways The the weather is going to make these greens really really receptive Even I as of now we’re recording this Tuesday morning there’s even going to be a little bit rain Saturday night overnight So it’s like oh now they’re going to get even more receptive greens on Sunday And as as Jess Thomas has always told us you give us receptive greens we’re going to tear it up So this is a place where you got to go low Like it’s just a requirement Even even to make the cut you’re going to have to have really really good uh scoring So um the reachable par five the 17th that sets it up for a really nice 18th hole run Um I just think it it’s a layout where there’s really not much testing these guys There there are trees They’re not the most difficult trees in the world It’s not like you’re going to be hitting into forests And um you know the other thing is with with these soft fairways the runoff like you know super dry course you may hit a fairway but it may run off into the rough It’s not the case with with these fairways So I don’t think these guys are going to have any problems uh putting it out into the fairway and then it comes down to getting a hot putter So uh the the the greens they’re they’re receptive They’re not huge Uh there’s a couple of them um that are pretty good They do have some good elevation changes There’s water like you know 18th features water There’s some pretty cool uh views of rivers around but um there’s really not one type of player at favors I think just in the end and I know this is sounds may pretty obvious but Nick hottest putter is going to be the one Yeah And and we talk about this This is the kind of this is the kind of course in tournament where someone out of nowhere gets hot with the putter over four rounds and all of a sudden oh there’s someone at 80 to1 uh winning the tournament So what’s your take on TPC deer run
not much I mean literally the easiest way to describe it It’s just it’s an extension from last week You know it’s going to be the same tournament It’s going to be the same type of scoring Uh there’s really no trouble off the tea There’s no trouble I mean the rough is up at the tallest point up to four inches but again like we saw last week it was too and it’s not thick So most of the time they’re hitting the rough they’re they’re either staying kind of fluffed up a bit Uh they’re just not really going to the bottom and they’re not like settling into a thick area Occasionally you’ll get the bad lie in the rough which you know will happen but over the course of the tournament it’s not nothing there And as is most weeks hitting greens and making putts is going to win the tournament Well there’s not a huge disparity between a lot of these players on hitting greens There’s not anybody that’s like eyepoppingly good or at least that much better than the rest of the field Putting though there are some guys that can really roll the rock and you have to shoot low I mean you’re going to have to average you know 600 par likely every every round to to win this thing 24 that would get you to 24 under which is a common winning score here 28 was last year uh with Davis Thompson So no I think it’s an extension last week Whatever you did if you had success last week uh in your bets and you were targeting certain types of players it’s probably going to work again the same way If for whatever reason you uh had no success well then 180 that and that should give you success this week Uh it is exactly the same as last week The greens pretty much average for PJ tour size 5500 So again nothing nothing here that’s tricky Uh so I expect this to be like like you said low scoring Weather doesn’t look to be an issue it looks If anything it’s helping the scoring because it might be a little uh thunderstorm action over the weekend but otherwise pretty seasonal and uh Fourth of July you know probably doesn’t get a lot of uh a TV coverage but I’ll be watching you’ll be watching Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah You know listen this course is not really near my house but it’s in the same you know area of the country We’ve had a stunning amount of rain man around here Like st like I got up this morning it’s
everything’s soaked Uh like we’ve never had this much rain in this area You know normally it’s drought drought drought Instead the grass is you know mile high So it’s it’s uncharacteristically wet um around here for for for this kind of year So all right real quick Let’s do my favorite hole on this course I chose the fourth hole 455 yard par4 There’s not a lot of holes on this course that really stand out but you know me Nick I love a good random obstacle in the middle of of of a hole This one just has a gigantic tree splitting the fairway Uh you’re going to want to be to the right of the tree to have a much closer approach into the dog leg Right The green does have some pretty steep bunkers on the left It’s got runoff on the right So your approach is going to need to be accurate You you have to be careful not to get get around this this big tree They should be able to get past it But if you get under it where the branches are screwing up your approach you accidentally hit it uh yeah you can you can give yourself a little bit of problem So I just love I love holes where there it it’s very putt putt coursees uh where there’s there’s just a random obstacle in the middle of the fairway The 18th hole rating nothing too special about this hole It’s a 4.3 like the rest of the course It’s just not very difficult Fairway bends to the right There is a big fairway bunker on the left There’s trees on the right so accuracy does need to be there Uh in the fairway it’s a fairly easy approach There is water on the left so I’m just expecting the right side of this green to to get most of the shots Not a very dramatic hole but the element of water next to it makes it a little little bit interesting but this hole just kind of blends in with the rest of the course I don’t expect a lot of drama on this one You maybe see a few balls in the water on 18 but nothing that’s going to nothing that’s going to affect the leaders in my opinion So
let’s take a look at the total strokes gain While we’re doing that if you guys could please do us a favor and hit the like button and leave us a comment you know we go in and read all the comments and you guys have been absolutely crushing the comment section this year So interested to see who you guys have picked uh for winners Give me some props give me some outrights give me some long shots It’s a really really good field uh to try that in So let’s take a look at total strokes gained at Nick And I love this graphic in these tournaments because you’re seeing a lot of names that we wouldn’t normally talk about So let’s take a look here and uh what can we decipher from uh I mean Michael Kim makes an appearance Holy cow Bud Collie uh Ryan Gerard All right Talk us through these What are your takeaways
quite a uh quite a different uh take here on these on these player names than we’re used to seeing And it’s always fun because I have to adjust my color uh conditional coloring here for these type of of screens because you know strokes gained when Sky Shuffler’s at over three as the leader versus when the leader’s at just barely over one It requires a little different little different shading on this on this graphic But the fact that Jason Day is number one over the last 12 months kind of tells you where we’re at with this field Ben Griffin clearly the hottest player and that shows in the shorter term three-month stroke gain numbers there over on the right hand column But surprising names not really I mean this is kind of who you’d expect to be in the better players in this field Um Sunja is a guy that just you know we’ve always talked about for years consistency consistency consistency but you can see here in this graphic the six-month and three-month trends are going the wrong way Same with Luke Clanton who turned professional officially So he’s just trying to get his feet uh get under his feet under him I guess you could say Uh and Lucas Glover I mentioned earlier kind of same thing He’s trending the wrong way right now but very good course history here Um Davis Thompson’s getting a play this week because he’s a defending champ But really from what you see in this graphic you probably wouldn’t be taking him because he’s trending the wrong way However in this field sometimes those trends don’t really matter what you’re doing if you’re going the wrong way because all it takes is one good week And it’s not like the field is consistently going to be making cuts or consistently going to be finished top 20s with these guys So anybody can have a bad week just as easy as anybody can have a good week Um but Poston’s a one that’s had a lot of success here Uh he’s playing pretty well right at the moment One of the better ones in the field The guys down at the bottom uh I added in because they’re more of the guys playing the best in the last three or six months You already mentioned the bottom uh player there Thorb Thorbjorn Jornen Thorb Yornen Thorb Jornen Just want to make sure I have to say saying that correctly Mikey very good Mikey Mikey Very good Yeah there you go Mike
let’s go with Mikey T
Mikey T playing very good over the short shorter span And Gerard was a guy that’s like if you’re not paying attention you’re not never gonna know his name but he’s sneakily being pretty consistent and in this field um kind of leaps and bounds above above most of the guys here Same with Bud Collie who’s made a return the last year and a half from like a three-year highest with injuries So it’s good to see him back in there But listen don’t be stuck to this graphic I I I usually always you know mention how important it is to stick to this graphic the signatures and the majors but in this type of field this graphic doesn’t matter I also mentioned uh last week that 24 of the 25 tournaments this year excluding the three alternate fields have been won by somebody in the top 25 in in strokes gained last 12 six or three months Last week pot gater was not in that that So he was 24 of 26 So if you’re going to venture down from this list it’s usually still the next tier that wins So it’s not too far down but you can certainly throw some darts this week and take some long shot guys Love it Love it Uh let’s jump into players that can trip you up And this was one of the toughest ones because I’m trying to figure out who is everyone going to pick this week So uh we’re just going to start with Chris Gotup which I’m sure Chris Goddarup never expected to be in this uh category but uh he’s being priced like a contender this week And I get it Nick You’re going to have to put some of these guys in in contention But the results don’t back it up here Uh despite the short odds he has not posted a single top 10 all year Missed the cut here last year 2024 Putting massive massive concern Minus0.47 strokes gained over the last 30 days that is not going to get it done on a birdie friendly layout where you have to have the hot putter So I think he’s a fade at this number I’m not putting him in DFS I’m certainly not putting him in head-to-heads where he’s he’s matched up against these higher priced guys So Chris Gdder up is priced way too high for me Uh Davis Thompson last year’s winner Um uh don’t let that distract you He’s not been very good in 2024 Hasn’t finished better than 10th all season putter ice cold losing minus0.39 strokes over the last six months Again bad putter on a course where you have to go low on the greens Uh course history alone is not enough to justify me backing him In fact I think he’s overpriced I may look to fade him um if I get a good head-to-head matchup with him And then we’ll go with Pearson Cody as being priced like a contender but I just don’t think he’s shown enough at the PGA Tour level He’s had really really good strong results on the corn ferry Uh he’s just one finish better than 25th in seven PGA Tour starts this year He finished 30th last year Again a weak field It’s solid but it’s not enough to justify a really good performance here So weak field betterers may we may be chasing upside Uh this price tag to me doesn’t give me value on the upside So Chris GDP Davis Thompson and uh Pearson Zancudi I think these are guys uh that are a little bit overpriced this week All right Nick let’s take a look at your favorite favorite Before we do that tell everyone what you have up for clients at Wager Talk
Sure Uh right now we have uh the the well not the finals but the end of the FIFA Club World Cup We got some matches going on uh today Tuesday and the semi-finals of the Gold Cup which is the uh USA Mexico basically tournament going on Both of those are nearing their end We got a little bit of time left but I have plays up for those over the next week And then MLS still in full action Um weekend car will be up uh later this week And that’s really all that’s going on for me right now during uh during the summer Of course John Deere Classic uh pack is up and available as well We did give out Pot Gater after round one last week nine to one It wasn’t the sexy 100 to1 but I was never going to land on that guy ahead of the tournament but after watching that first round I was like you know what it’s worth it’s worth something So hopefully we can do the same here I’m trying to track Andy this year a lot of the I guess like midternament type of data You know what what is what does the winner look like after round one and round two right to try to pinpoint where you can get those live winners Uh and so far so good Obviously last week was a good winner Um but just gathering a lot of data so that I can attack these type of tournaments because let’s be honest these ones are crapshoots right it’s hard to pick a guy to win this thing It could be anybody But after round one or two yeah your odds are not nearly as good But if you can get nine to one 10 to one 12 to one on a on a potential winner at this type of tournament I think it’s great So hopefully we’ll have some success as we go forward uh with those type of plays
Love it Love it Let’s talk your favorite favorite Who near the top of the odds list have you pegged this week
yeah I mentioned him before It’s it’s DMAC Uh I mean I don’t think you have to go dive too deep to know uh his recent success here is fantastic three straight top seven finishes at TPC seed deer run So you know that could blow up in our face and all of a sudden a big mis cut but certainly he’s gonna have confidence around here and it does feel like you know a win at this place is just a matter of when But he really makes sense as far as his player profile You have to make buries and bunches and the only way to do that is to have a hot putter And he’s once again and I say once again because it’s like every year this guy’s a top 10 if not the best putter on tour where he ranks ninth right now this season strokes game putting so he can roll the rock you have to be able to do that uh on this season he only has two top 10s uh but that’s among eight top 20s but the best part about DMAC is that he makes the weekend he hasn’t missed a cut this year 16 starts uh tied for 12th in his last start at the Travelers which was two weeks ago so he’s got a little benefit of rest not playing last week as well but he doesn’t miss cuts that’s going to give us a chance uh even if he has a slow maybe Thursday or Friday he probably rallies on the other round and we make the cut and maybe we back door ourselves into a top 10 or top 20 uh if he’s not playing great right off the bat But I think DMAC’s going to have a good week I’d be very surprised if he’s not in contention again Uh let’s take a look at DraftKings darlings Um and yeah you’re right I mean Denny McCarthy my god who who can go on a hotter streak with a putter than Denny McCarthy unbelievable
Pretty amazing how he can get that done So
all right let’s take a look at DraftKings Darlings Had a great week last week Finished 16th out of 200 in a tournament last week So yeah the previous week wasn’t very good but last week we had a we had a had a really really solid showing Really never in doubt here So uh we’re going right back to Adam Hadwin at 6,800 Came through for us last week He pretty much gave us exactly what we wanted which was uh he made the weekend Wasn’t huge upside but he got us weekend points and that’s all we’re we’re looking for That’s made the cut in seven out of his last eight starts So really steady form and in a weak field like this I would expect them to make the cut again Not a high ceiling play Uh but sometimes what do they say sometimes par is good enough to win So just give me a made cut here on on this uh on this course and give me some weekend points and we’ll be really really happy with that one Going back to Austin Ecro who’s been really good for us He’s been a quiet nice asset making the cut in six straight events consistently delivering weekend points Stat profile isn’t amazing but he’s just been steady enough to be priced at this lower level and still get us weekend points So cutmaking streak matters in DFS Echo’s price is a little bit low So he does have a little bit of upside but uh again just weekend points And now this guy does have some pretty good upside Kevin Roy 7,400 He’s becoming one of my favorite DraftKings darlings He’s made the cut in seven straight tournaments He’s in those seven tournaments he’s had an eighth place finish 18th place finish a 15th place finish So consistency and a little upside at 7,400 makes this a play that I I think you have to have in your lineup So and as always uh my final lineup is going to be on my free digital download article It’s on the same page where all my plays are posted wt.buzzal If you’re watching this on Tuesday it is $5 Tuesday All handicappers can put up a play for $5 We’ve got one of our team totals That is up We’re on a 24-10 run in team totals 35 and 20 on totals this year So totals have been really really good source of income And this one is in the MLB Absolutely love that one And it’s only five bucks So take advantage of $5 Tuesday and take advantage of the free digital download article wt.buzzal All right let’s look at another long shot here DraftKings darlings and then another long shot in a field that is kind of full of long shots Nick stick uh who did you have circled down the list on the on the odds page
yeah you mentioned uh you’re not going to find a player you know that’s not going to have some sort of uh part of his game that’s like you know it’s kind of this whole field is you got to take your chances on somebody that might not be fully fully rounded But Valamaki I really love how he’s been playing uh you know in these type of fields uh this year He he does have four miscuts on the season in 15 individual starts but he’s had several good starts in these again these type of fields He had a solo fourth at the Houston Open tied for 12th at the Valero Texas Open tied for seventh at Myrtle Beach tied for 19th at the Rocket Classic last week just to prove again this is kind of his pedigree He’s got a couple other top 20 finishes and tougher events at the RBC Heritage Signature event and then at Farmers Insurance Open which Tory Pines is always very very difficult golf course So he’s got several good results this year Unless you’re a nut like us you probably have never heard of this guy but Valamaki is worth a look He’s got the recipe I think for these lowscoring events He flushes his irons He ranks 27th actually in strokes gain approach this season which is is in the top 10 in this field this week He’s also in the top 10 in strokes gain this uh putting this season He comes in at eighth So eighth eighth best putter on tour right now this year and in the top 10 in strokes being approached in this field Those two is that’s exactly why I like DMAC and now you give me Balamaki at 100 to one Okay is he going to win ah but plus 850 for a top 10 or plus 360 for a top 20 I think are no-brainers Uh and then you just sprinkle a little bit on the 100 to one but he’s going to have to make a lot of birdies He can roll the rock He’s hitting his irons better than most in this field I think it’s a recipe for success and he’s shown that he can he can play and have good results in these type of fields So Sammy Valamaki for the long shot win Love it Love it Uh yeah a lot of lot of interesting sprinkles and long shots in this field this week So um I still go back to Jason Day being the number one last
I know it’s crazy Feels like 2012
Yeah I’m surprised Griffin hasn’t caught him even in the last 12 months I’m surprised Griffin hasn’t caught him this year So uh and yeah Ben Griffin will be in my DFS lineup like uh I I feel like he’s like almost the new Scotty Sheffler You have to put him in
some of these lineups Like if you’re playing seasonal fantasy you got to use up all right on right now Yeah
Yeah Um I can’t It doesn’t matter I don’t care I don’t care what he did last year I know It doesn’t really matter
Such amazing form this year Uh yeah Yeah did not did not did not see the Ben Griffin uh just elite status come through So yeah
All right that is going to do it for us Go ahead and hit the like button We got a big couple of weeks coming up uh for for tea time So we’ve got another major down the road We got the Scottish Open which is always really fun to handicap and figure out So should be a good couple of weeks Make sure you’re subscribed to the YouTube channel 207,000 subscribers So join the Wager Talk family That way you get notified when all the videos go live when all the videos get released especially tea time uh cuz we’ll be with you for the rest of the season So hit the like button make sure you leave us a comment in the comment section Good luck on all your plays and take care