Mark Kelly: Surprise surprise, Scottie Scheffler. Fresh off dominating the PGA Championship, he’s looking to win his first US Open. A scary thought: a win at Oakmont would see Scheffler go for the career grand slam at Royal Portrush in July.
Scottie Scheffler is the hot favourite to win his first US Open title. Photo / AFPWho will win – non-Scottie Scheffler edition?
McMillan: I’m expecting the LIV Golf duo of Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm to be right up there, along with Morikawa. I don’t see a maiden major winner this week.
Plummer: Defending champion DeChambeau is a strong contender and will depend on his long driving ability and putting on speedy greens to give himself a chance. Xander Schauffele has had six top-10 finishes at the US Open since 2017 but is yet to win. He could break through this week.
Kelly: Joaquin Niemann. For the fourth time this season, the 26-year-old Chilean put together a cracking final round to claim a victory on the LIV Golf tour. Niemann has been one of the most highly touted golfers coming through the ranks ever since being the world’s No 1 amateur. Data Golf ranks him as the world’s No 8 after his win at LIV Virginia. The only names ahead of him: Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, DeChambeau, Rahm, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood and Morikawa.
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However, major championship success has yet to come for Niemann. Before his T8 finish at the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, his best finish on golf’s biggest stages was a T16 at the 2023 Masters. That was the only time he cracked the top 20 in his first 23 major starts.
Dark horse?
McMillan: Sepp Straka is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour this year, and the course suits his game. The Austrian is ranked eighth in the world, so maybe not a genuine outsider. I also like the majors form of Harris English. For a real dark horse, how about $251 outsider and world No 150 Emiliano Grillo winning it 18 years after fellow Argentinian Angel Cabrera lifted the US Open trophy at Oakmont?
Reive: Corey Conners has quietly become one of the most consistent players on tour. He’s among the top 10 in driving accuracy and has eight top-20 finishes this season, including at two majors. In 15 events in 2025, he’s missed the cut only once. He hasn’t won an event on tour since early 2023, but I expect he’ll be in the mix here.
Plummer: Dustin Johnson. A true underdog, with most believing he’ll miss the cut due to recent poor form. But the last time the US Open was played at Oakmont, in 2016, Johnson won by three strokes. Another major win is what the 40-year-old needs to reignite his career.
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Kelly: Tony Finau. A T3 at the US Open at Pinehurst last year, Finau has been there or thereabouts at many majors in his career. Watch out for him this week.
Who would you want to win it?
McMillan: Ryan Fox is the only answer. How great would it be to have a Kiwi winning 20 years after Michael Campbell lifted the trophy? And his recent approach play could suit Oakmont. Outside Fox, I’d love to see Jordan Speith win another major – possibly with five bogeys, nine birdies, a double and an eagle in the final round.
Reive: Nothing would make me happier than seeing Fox lift another trophy. But I’d also enjoy seeing Shane Lowry win. The Irishman knows his way around Oakmont and looked likely to win this event at the same venue in 2016 before capitulating in the final round. He returns as one of the top players in the world and looks a strong contender this week.
Plummer: It would be criminal for any Kiwi not to want Fox to take home his first major. With two wins on the PGA under his belt in the past month, the 38-year-old is in the best form of his life and could be in with a chance. Apart from Foxy, it will likely be Phil Mickelson’s last US Open and last shot at pursuing the coveted career grand slam. It’d be great to see two golfers complete the feat in the same season after McIlroy won the Masters.
Kelly: Like the rest of the experts, Fox is the only answer. How good would it be to see him become a major champion? Other than that, I would love to see “Lefty” Mickelson complete his career grand slam. Time is running out for the 54-year-old: this will be his last automatic US Open invite after winning the 2021 PGA Championship.
Most likely to miss the cut?
McMillan: Cameron Smith. The Aussie has missed the cut at the last three majors, and I don’t think the course suits him. Form on the LIV tour has been too patchy. You can probably add fellow Aussie Cam, Cam Davis.
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Reive: Wyndham Clark. A course where accuracy is likely to be the most important element can only work against the often erratic American.
Plummer: Brooks Koepka. A shadow of the player who won the PGA Championship in 2023, Koepka has missed back-to-back major cuts already this year and could be in for a triple. He lacks distance off the tee, which will hurt him at Oakmont.
Kelly: Min Woo Lee. Ever since his maiden win on the PGA Tour, one of the biggest drivers has been wayward off the tee. Can’t see the young Aussie doing well at Oakmont.
Winning score?
McMillan: -1
Plummer: -4
Reive: -3
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Kelly: -2
