On today’s show, Ryan looks into the the 2025 Travelers Championship — a course preview and breakdown of TPC River Highlands, opening lines, outright picks, the model top 10, horses for courses, past winners, first-round leader picks and more.
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[Music] hi everybody welcome to the press good to have you with us it’s a little bit late for this week’s show but we are going to talk about the Travelers Championship the final signature event of the year on the PGA Tour schedule getting toward the playoffs portion of the year uh this will be the last of those $20 million events that we have with the minimum 72 player field then we’ll we’ll get some more $20 million events those just happen to be in the playoff portion of the schedule so everything travelers championship today we did an audio version of the show earlier today to talk about the KPMG women’s PGA Championship the LPGA major this week couple minutes on the Collie Company’s Championship double major this week we’ve got the PJ tour champions with a major this week out in Akran Ohio the old uh the old WGC Bridgestone is now a PJ tour champions major and we got Live Dallas that’s all I’ll covered in that episode but this is all about Travelers Championship so let’s get right into it travelers Championship the eighth and final signature event of the year it is played once again at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell Connecticut there’s an interesting backstory here and I I forget about this every year because I I really just enjoy the tournament don’t think about the course too too much but this golf course opened in 1928 and it’s had like three or four different names over the years it became a TPC I want to say like 1989 or something like that like late 80s and the original designers of this course are Robert J ross and Maurice Kernney and they then had it when once it kind of got to a different point in the 80s they the PJ tour kind of got a hold of it they brought in Pete Dye to redo large portions of this property even though a lot of it doesn’t look very diish if you kind of get really picky about it but he did a basically a renovation job on this golf course like 1984 85 uh somewhere in that range but ultimately this course is still one of the shortest on the PGA tour it’s a par 70 they’ve got nothing to expand there’s nothing they can add to there’s lots of houses on the property so they really can’t redo a lot of this it’s effectively a residential development 60 44 is the yardage again not a lot there yardage wise but we’ll talk about the course a little bit more again $20 million purse 3.6 million to the winner and 700 FedEx Cup points to the champion this week let’s start with the top of the table i don’t think any of these guys are surprising again we have a 72 player field here we keep hitting that minimum number on the PGA Tour for these signature events kind of makes me wonder if they’re going to think about expanding it to maybe 81 or maybe 90 that’d be nice but uh nevertheless we got 72 this week pretty much everybody who’s anybody’s in the field I think it’s 47 of the world’s top 50 are competing this week liv’s kind of down to a very limited number of players in the top 50 anymore but Scotty Sheffller’s plus 365 to win i mean depending on where you shop this is an offshore book number but probably plus 350 uh state side uh they’re they’re I mean let’s just be serious it this is Scotty’s tournament to lose every tournament is Scotty’s to lose until further notice if he had made sixfooters if he had made enough three-footers that he had missed at Oakmont he’s the US Open champion he’s a two-time major winner this year and a four-time major champion that’s what it came down to a guy who kind of lacks confidence and putting at times struggling on a faster surface struggling on slloier surfaces this is not that kind of place the the targets are relatively small right the targets off the tea are relatively small there are some tight spots there also some pretty wide spots but you can kind of do what you want and Sheffller talked before the tournament about what he values in a test right he wants good shots rewarded bad shots punished well you get a lot more good shots rewarded at a venue like TPC River Highland so you’re thinking about 20 22 24 under as the winning score for the week against a par of 70 so ultimately you’re thinking 260 255 to 260 is what you’ve got to shoot here to have a chance this week right i mean that’s that’s a lot that’s a that’s a low number you got to go deep to have a chance this week uh Sheffller’s done it before he’s been a winner here k Morawa 16 to1 rory Maroy 18 to1 feels like there’s a lot more eyeballs now on Maroyy’s behavior what it means still seems to be to open to a lot of interpretation so I was at a media day for a course opening uh just just yesterday and that was the topic of conversation over and over again what’s wrong with Rory what’s he why is he acting like this what’s going on i have no answers just like the rest of you right i mean it could be a variety of things it seems like maybe someone had to come to Jesus talk with them of hey what’s going on here like why are you like this you should be happy your life at least professionally as we know it is in an incredible position we don’t know what’s going on in your personal life of course he’s trying to move from Florida to the UK you know a year ago basically he was going to get divorced and then called it off right so is that still a thing there’s probably plenty of speculation more toward his personal life than his professional life i think you can make this argument that Maroy did all the karmic thing you know the cosmic karma things right over the last number of years talked to people frown smiled when he should have frowned or was natural to frowned he talked to media when he was upset he was the face of the PJ tour like he did all those things maybe in service of the universe hoping that it would pay off someday now that it has like I don’t have to do that anymore i don’t think it’s that simple but I’ll I’ll throw that explanation on the uh on the fire victor Hoblin’s 20 to1 xander Schoffley past champion here 20 to1 patrick Canley is your horse this week we’ll talk about him later some more 28 to1 along with Seth Stra who I think should get quite a bit of love this week similar kind of look and feel i mean please don’t compare Philly Cricket to GPC River Highlands but sort of similar feel and presentation of the golf course speed greens all that’s very different but this is the kind of place where SEP should thrive uh you got Tommy Fleetwood at 28 to1 again we’ll never bet him until he wins in America daniel Burgerer 35 Keegan Bradley 35 i think both those guys are great plays i think Henley is an interesting play this week bermuda Burns is going to get some love maybe as a kind of a bounceback win type of thing jt was a non-factor had the weekend off 45 to1 at Oakmont aaron Ry I think is kind of interesting here 50 to1 might be a little sneaky pick uh Shane Lowry’s bit me too many times but I think Ben Griffin could continue the run here he was kind of under the radar on the Sunday coverage of the US Open but he had a very very nice week to the opposite end of that well not the opposite end of the coverage cameron Young got plenty of coverage but Cameron Young came out of nowhere and he has not had much of a year to speak of and now all of a sudden he’s 55 to1 whereas if we held this tournament two weeks prior to the US Open he’d be 150 to1 please do not let that fool you please do not let that happen if he wins this week kudos but there’s plenty of reason plenty more reason to not even look at his name than have him on a bet slip let’s put that way uh Matt Syama’s become just a guy after a great opening start of the year bobby Mack 55 to1 this feels like a Bobby Mack course got to be honest with you i mean if you think about the places he’s won when he won Canada it was like that uh this kind of similar setup tighter little shorter didn’t necessarily favor a bomber i mean bombers can win here obviously but doesn’t necessarily outright favor them i I think he’s an interesting play i did me I did see someone mention kind of speed’s numbers starting to kind of turn a little bit i I’m a little attuned to that i’m still I think it’s a little early in the process but maybe he could show up at the open and do some crazy things let’s get to the model top 10 then we’ll get to the remainder of the 72 player field so we we run this model every week top 10 make available for free because usually there’s not really surprises over at golfnet.com but you can join for the rest of the list all one to 72 $40 a year $70 for two years or $100 for three years scotty Sheffller is number one by an enormous margin uh Rory Mroy is next and then Xander Schoffley is kind of falling off from last year so those points kind of starting to change a little bit patrick Kent lays up there primarily as a horse for course like he is the horse for course pick this week other than maybe Brian Harmon and outside of that I mean Scotty and Xander yes uh because it’s winners and they have multiple you know good finishes but u they’re kind of in their own company I guess Tommy Fleetwood fifth which is an unfortunate circumstance because he doesn’t win Matsyama six Morau he’s kind of fallen off a little bit recently but this does seem like a kind of place that would work for him but he’s been you know we’re four years into a winless skit at this point justin Thomas eight Cory Connor’s nine i think Cory Connors could do very very well here sunjm 10 I think is a is a believable bet he’s in that 60 to1 range as well so armed with that you know here’s some of the here’s basically the rest of the field the next couple of graphics Brian Harmon at 7 to1 I think is a play matt McNeely I wish were a play i I want him to be a play here but I don’t think I can tom Kim at 85 to1 kind of a a lastm minutee guy bud Collie at 90 I feel like is a good play here harris English is a horse for course multiple top 15s in the last five years at 90 to1 really interesting stat that he has always made the cut in the US Open i think 12 appearances the USGA said pretty impressive that he’s been able to do that uh he seems to find his best work on the toughest courses this is unfortunately not one of those but he does seem to like it nick Taylor 91’s interesting tony Feno’s had a better year than you might think but 90 to1 is going to be a pass for me i think Denny McCarthy at 105 to1 is very interesting to me uh he showed some signs in the US Open he likes Northeast golf i think that’s a thing to get into andrew Novak’s going to fly under the radar here i don’t know that this is a place for him but I would probably go into Ryan Gerard instead at 115 i know he had a rough weekend at Oakmont put that to the side it was an opportunity for him on a bigger stage i think he will learn something from it that’s a positive in the end so I’ll put that to the side here um maybe Davis Thompson i do want to think about M Hughes a little bit i was just talking to John Sherman at this event he is he’s kind of a data and analytics coach uh for M Hughes and and things were heading in the right direction kind of sounded like so may and and we’ve seen that with the run at the Myrtle Beach Classic which I’m not saying the dunes in here are the same place right they’re very very different but kind of similar look and feel not that long somewhat tight landing areas it’s it’s all about second shots i mean that’s that’s what Matt Hughes does uh it’s a wild world to see that Matt Fitzpatrick is also 125 to one um I felt like we were starting to see a little bit of turnaround there but that kind of got styied a little bit I think at Oakmont uh but Hoy 135 is kind of interesting to me but I I probably won’t play that now we’re into the you’re just happy to be here and get a free paycheck part of the signature fields kevin Hughes had a had a very nice year but 135 to1 ricky Fowler Ryan Ryan Fox 135 to1 I think is bananas i think you almost have to play that out of principle he’s won twice in what six weeks seven weeks and you’re telling me that he’s still 135 to1 you You go almost You have to bet it luke Clinton 165 to1 freshly minute pro he’s got his tailor made stuff all set up they had the announcements about that today on social media about his staff stuff i mean that was kind of a known known but that’s that’s out there i think he might be able to shock the world here i mean this is a huge opportunity for him being able to have a PGA Tour card at a PJ tour you accelerated to get into a signature event right out of the gate this is a big chance for him and I think he knows it and he knows he’s good enough to beat anybody in this field uh I I wouldn’t be against betting Ryan Fox and Luke Clinton windham Clark uh we will not bet Windham Clark until further notice uh he is got a serious anger problem at this point and you can feel how you want about him busting up the lockers at Oakmont i’m sure there have been angrier things that have been done in that locker room in a 100 years however doing it a US Open just a couple weeks after looking like a buffoon at the PGA Championship not a good look there’s something clearly wrong there please do not get within a mile of betting him for any reason unless he’s got a five shot lead with nine to go on a Sunday and you want a minus 500 number then at that point okay fine but that would be a shock to us all matty Schmidt’s kind of interesting been playing pretty good golf 250 to1 little I think a little deep for for what he’s in this week maybe if this were a different field I I could bet him uh and then everyone after that is just happy to be there i think I mean Gary Woodland has had some ups and downs and I I still think Houston was a great opportunity for him um he saved his career he saved his card you know obviously very well with his season but 350 to1 seems uh seems about right honestly for his chances i mean if we’re thinking about this week in reality we’re looking at Sheffler Kentley from a horse for course perspective it it should be a week where one of the kind of four or five best players winds up winning but then we thought that about the US Open and look what happened there so I think there’s going to be a little kind of better’s remorse you know we like I said we had JJ we didn’t do a show last week about the US Open i was out in the Outer Banks internet connection stuff was weird so it was kind of tough to put that together jj Spawn was 33rd in my model that’s about right for his odds you know 150 to 175 depending on where you were looking and what price you got and what time that’s pretty fair assessment but you get tournaments like that where you assess the field pretty correctly and then just that guy wins it it does happen it’s not like JJ Spawn should have been fourth or third i think that was the right place for him just happened that way but more often than not especially in the current environment the rankings are right and the result is pretty close to right thanks to guys like Scotty Sheoffller i think that’s more likely than not to happen uh this weekend the odds reflect that a plus 365 some horses for courses just to go over a little bit of deeper analysis about this sheffler Schoffley Canlay Harman Speed all guys we’ve already talked about to a degree one way or another i think I think all kind of viewed somewhat you know favorably um course fits for this week this is a really interest TBC River Highlands is really interesting in that a lot of the the strokes gained on this course probably more than any on the PJ tour comes from putting it’s like a 4852 putting Tet to Green split it’s insane and there aren’t many guys like that on the PJ tour the guys that are in this field that have those kinds of fits are Max Sam Stevens Harris English Matt McNeely which is kind of why I want to bet him here this week uh and Windham Clark who I will never ever bet u unless you force me some hot hands so guys multiple top 15 finishes in the last five PGA Tour events played uh or 10 PGA Tour events played excuse me um no five sorry wrong graphic uh Keegan Bradley Sam Burns Bud Collie Harris English Ben Griffin Bobby Mack Taylor Pendrth Scotty Sheffller Matty Schmid Seb Straka i don’t I don’t think those names are out of place we’ve talked about a number of them already ben Griffin and Seb Straco certainly we have Harris English as a horse for course and a guy who had nice US Open bobby Mack this is a course for him taylor Pendendrick and away it may be for him but I I don’t really love that fit here keegan Bradley certainly makes a lot of sense it was a big deal for him to win here a couple of years ago winning as a signature event i think it was then a designated event i figure when they changed that term but it was a big deal for him and he played pretty darn well at the US Open he gets amped up for this kind of stuff uh starting to think hey maybe I can make my own RDER Cup team here right now I think he would leave himself off but if he wins this thing maybe he puts himself on and then there’s a whole other set of discussions i think he is trying to make this team i don’t I don’t think he has resigned himself to not so I think there’s a lot of reason to get behind him this week um we talked about the last five champions of this tournament scotty Sheffler Keegan Bradley Xander Shelf Harris English Dustin Johnson dustin Johnson was the COVID winner here remember when they came back from the break this was the first event back and they had all the protocols in place and it was just crazy Wild West times dustin Johnson won that week believe it or not he he does not seem like a fit for this course but he did it all right so let’s look at instead of longer term form which is really the focus of my modeling and look at short-term form which is really a look at how players are playing now in terms of strokes gain in the aggregate quality strokes gain which is our measure of strokes gain multiplied by a factor related to the official Wolf ranking of an event field and then strokes gain on the approach first two columns are kind of telling me hey you’re beating the field consistently no matter how you do it and then the quality strokes game piece is going to tell me you’re doing it against better competition than weaker competition and then the strokes on the approach you may not fit into the first two buckets but if you’re doing well on the approach you’re telling me you’re doing a critical component of the game right so you’re either better driving or better putting away from doing something potentially spectacular so let’s let’s kind of look at through all these columns you’re going to see common names right you’re going to see Sheffller Straa Griffin Fleetwood Keegan Bradley um Harry Hall’s been up there seeu Kim Sam Burns just playing very good golf lately um couple other guys on there for the quality strokes game perspective that otherwise wouldn’t be on there xander Schoffley uh Shane Lowry who has kind of fallen off in the strokes gain capacity but is hanging in there because he’s playing great competition consistently harris English is on that list of players who are doing great against the higher competition or well enough against the higher competition to qualify for that and then if you look at Strokes on the approach I just again kind of treat this separately but Brian Campbell is up there he’s 750 to1 this course it I’m gonna talk myself into this but this is the shortest course on the PGA Tour he is the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour if that’s not a fit I don’t know what can be for Brian Campbell he’s gaining well on the approach given that he’s hitting longer clubs into every hole than every other person on tour basically maybe there’s something to be said for not having to hit the same long irons in every hole yes everyone’s still hitting shorter clubs than you but if you’re also hitting short irons and wedges maybe it’s a contest you can win crazy as that sounds don’t bet them just telling you if you want a 750 to1 bet that’s what you would say to yourself uh some other approach guys that aren’t on the other lists uh Eric Cole Patrick Kentlay who’s putting and driving have been just atrocious this year uh Ash Batia is also on that list who I I think has the ingenuity to play this course that well strokes gain te to green leaders with low variance we just kind of have this graphic in every show because I think it’s helpful to know the guys that do gain a lot of strokes gain t to green putting is a huge variable it’s something you can and can’t if you are a great putter you’re probably consistently a great putter otherwise there’s a lot of up and down right there’s a lot of variance in putting unto itself take that out of it for a second and just say “Okay Tita Green who gains strokes consistently and does it at a level that’s relatively high without a whole lot of up and down right not as many waves.” And those guys are pretty consistent too shane Lowry Rory Mroy Scotty Sheffller almost qualif for our measure of this just missed it by a little bit keegan Bradley uh Justin Thomas Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood i think I have seen a number of people who tout uh that Daniel Burgerer is a good pick this week i wouldn’t don’t hate it wouldn’t be against it um let’s get into top 20 percentage leaders so in the last 50 events on the PGA Tour did you finish in the top 20 40% of your events were better it’s a big list signature event makes sense this is the best of the best but if you want to to look toward the tail end of this graphic toward the bottom right of the the graphic think about a Sam Burns maybe a Mav maybe a Russell Henley for a top 20 maybe an Aaron Ry top 20 bet may be a decent value this week again 72 players no cut that market’s not going to be as as juicy or interesting because you get four rounds regardless but if you’re thinking about those kind of derivative bets this week at least uh consider those but in terms of a consistency sake these are your most consistent players in high finishes obviously about the more in the upper left of this graphic the chefers Macroy Morocawas those guys are close to 80% in the top 20 then you kind of get into the Cantlays and below and you know high 50s low 50s then overall on the right is about you know 40 and above 42 and above something like that but that’s still high clip that’s that’s still impressive golf and then for your first round leader friends uh let’s talk about th this event’s first round leaders um you have some interesting mix there and then the last 50 i don’t I don’t think any of those are surprising except maybe Mackenzie Hughes uh being surprising on that list cam Davis too uh could be worth a look uh at the end of the day so that’s everything that’s everything travelers Championship um this is an interesting one because you’ve got a quality field you’ve got a course a lot of players like uh it is demanding but it’s also very scoreable it’s a it’s kind of a tournament of complexity to it even though it seems very straightforward and easy you’re playing a 6,800 golf course i mean if you’re having a good day you’re going to light it up 58 is possible 57 is probably possible here uh I wouldn’t be surprised if someone challenges 60 in the first two days at all and yet at the same time if you’re playing pretty poorly off the tea and you make a lot of mistakes in your approaches it’ll eat you up and it’ll make you look pretty bad it’s it’s a very interesting course i I really like the tournament it’s run very well nathan Group uh who is the tournament director has been fabulous over the years he he does an excellent job and this has been a really cool tournament for the Hartford part of the world the Connecticut you know Connecticut community uh back when I used to work at Backn Network you know this was a big week for Backn Network for the couple of years that it that it really existed and uh really appreciate this tournament all right that’s going to do it for us this week on the show thank you so much for watching or listening you can watch the show on our YouTube channel listen to it as an audio only version on the Golf Newset radio channel or you can go to the Golf News Net channel watch the show on the video version you can watch the show on Golf Newset TV available for freecast free live sports and Z and you can watch it on the golfet app for Roku and Amazon Fire you can also watch our website golfnewet.com catch us on your favorite podcast platform of choice email me Ryan atthegolfnewet.com with questions i’m on Twitter ryan baling other handles Ryan Balaggolf on Facebook and Instagram joinnewet for $40 a year $70 for two years $100 for three years over at golfwnet.com and I think that’s everything for this week so thank you so much for your time thanks for listening good luck with all your bets this week hopefully it’s a winning week for you and we’ll see you next week right here on the press [Music]
