Travelers Championship – Top Finish: Transcript-Based Analysis
This transcript captures a discussion between [Sleepy J] and [Dave Essler] on top betting picks for the upcoming Travelers Championship, focusing on players’ recent form, tournament history, and course characteristics. The conversation centers around selecting players for top 10 and top 20 finishes based on insights from prior performance and course suitability.
🏁 Conclusion
The transcript reveals a focused strategy by both speakers to capitalize on value in top 10 and top 20 betting markets, particularly in a shorter field. [Sleepy J] leans on bounce-back potential from recently cut players like Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood, while [Dave Essler] emphasizes statistical suitability to the course, noting that it’s short and favors precision over power. Key picks include Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Ben Griffin, and Eric Cole, with analyses grounded in course history, recent form, and physical demands from the previous week. The conversation delivers targeted, data-informed predictions rooted strictly in observable trends and tournament characteristics.
🔑 Key Points with Details
📈 Justin Thomas (JT): Chosen by [Sleepy J] for top 20 at +105. He was cut last week but has strong history at Travelers (T5, T9, T3 in 2016), making him a high-reward bounce-back candidate.
🏌️ Tommy Fleetwood: Also selected for top 20 at +110. Though not as dominant at this event, he has two top 15s in four starts and seven top 20s in his last 11 events, showing consistent form.
📊 Keegan Bradley: Picked by [Dave Essler] for top 10 at +320. Despite underwhelming last week, he’s a past winner at Travelers and faces a smaller field, increasing his chances.
🧊 Patrick Cantlay: Top 10 pick at +220. Although struggling recently, he finished in the top 5 here the past two years, indicating strong course fit.
💪 Ben Griffin: Chosen for top 10 at +300. While [Dave] notes concerns about fatigue, Griffin is the only player to top 10 in the last two majors, and his youth is a positive factor.
🔁 Eric Cole: A high-variance top 20 bet at +300. He isn’t long off the tee but excels around the green and on shorter approaches, matching the 6,800-yard course well.
📉 Short Course Advantage: The course’s 6,800-yard layout diminishes the need for long drives, favoring accuracy and finesse over power hitters.
🚫 Avoiding Bombers: Players like Min Woo Lee were dismissed due to reliance on driving distance, which won’t be a major asset on this course.
⛳ Post-Cut Motivation: [Sleepy J] prefers players like JT and Fleetwood who missed the cut last week, expecting them to be more rested and motivated.
💥 Energy Management: [Dave] underscores the fatigue from last week’s majors as a factor, favoring younger or less-worn players like Griffin and Cole.
📚 Summary by Timestamps
[Sleepy J] (0:00 – 1:39)
Picks Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood for top 20 finishes. JT’s strong Travelers record (T3 in 2016, T5, T9) and recent missed cut are seen as advantages. Fleetwood has solid recent form (7 top 20s in last 11 events) and past top 15s at this course. Both players are expected to benefit from rest and rebound from last week’s fatigue-heavy majors.
[Dave Essler] (1:40 – 4:13)
Shares four picks, emphasizing the importance of the short field for value in top 10 markets.
Keegan Bradley: Top 10 at +320; a former winner of the event.
Patrick Cantlay: Top 10 at +220; strong past Travelers finishes despite current struggles.
Ben Griffin: Top 10 at +300; recent top 10s in majors, though fatigued.
Eric Cole: Top 20 at +300; great short game and suited to the short, 6,800-yard course.
Dave notes that power isn’t needed this week, so he avoids long hitters like Min Woo Lee.
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uh let’s go let’s jump into some top 40s through top fives there Uncle Dave i’ll go first here i’m going to go with two guys that were cut there last week and again I’m just keeping that kind of approach i want guys that were cut and I’m looking to go ahead and just stay away from guys that had a golf all four days one of those guys was Justin Thomas so I’m going to go ahead i’m going to play him top 20 uh at plus 105 jt very good here at the Travelers like I said off of a cut there last week his last two finishes here are very good t5 T9 also had a T3 here back in 2016 so you know he can do well here he’s proved that and I think he’ll be one of the guys that you know will be a little bit salty coming off of that cut pissed off but probably a little relieved that he gets to go ahead and see a new course so it’s top 20 JT uh at plus 105 and then kind of like in the same breath there I’m going with Tommy Fleetwood again here at top 20 plus 110 same thing I said about JT being salty being cut whatever the case might be but uh he hasn’t necessarily been as strong here as Justin Thomas but he does have two top 15 finishes here in his four total starts fleetwood doing really well you know prior to last week seven top 20s in his last 11 events so I think Fleetwood could bounce back here rather strong i think he will like I said some of these other favorites that are in this field there this week all ended up having to golf all four days and I really think you know that Oakmont just chewed these guys up spit them out uh are going to end up struggling somewhat in in some type of fashion so those are the two guys I’m going with they both of them top 20s justin Thomas Tommy Fleetwood that’s what I got what are you looking at yeah I only got four this week Sleepy so uh you know you’ll have less to edit I guess maybe um I took Keegan and I took a bunch of top 10s remember this is a a short field so you know the the value is going to be in top 10s i mean it drops off significantly to play top 20 so you know do it or don’t but I took Keegan top 10 plus 320 uh and as I said remember this is a smaller field and so only asking him to finish in roughly the top 14% uh he cost me last week but the list of those that didn’t cost me last week is not a short list so for anyone with a short memory he has won this tournament before i also took Patrick Canley at plus 220 top 10 as much as he has underperformed lately which has not helped my bankroll he’s been in the top five here the last two years i also took Ben Griffin top 10 at plus 300 i am most certainly mindful of the fact that he’s played a lot of golf and he used a lot of energy last week so I make this bet somewhat reluctantly but you know almost all these guys used a lot of energy last week some more than others uh but Griffin’s the only guy that’s finished in the top 10 the last two majors and he’s young so there is that um I took Eric Cole top 20 uh plus 300 uh based on his driving which isn’t ideal this is a high variance bet uh he’s but he’s far from long off the tea but this course is only about 6,800 yards so you know he doesn’t need to be long and he’s elite in and around the greens and above average on shorter approaches which there will be a lot of those so I think Cole could be the guy that you know it’s not a long shot but uh he could be the guy that maybe not a lot of people have on their card that that might cash us some money and you know 6,800 yards to put that in perspective you know that’s uh 700 yards shorter than last week and you know most most amateurs only play you know 62 to 6,400 so you know it’s it it for these guys it really is that short uh so I guess I’m saying that because it’s anybody’s ball game if they can get hot with the with the with the short shots and the flat stick uh but also length is probably not going to be overly helpful here which is why I didn’t use a lot of the bombers like Minui and whoever else hits the ball a very long way i I don’t think that’s going to help him a lot here
