U.S. Open 2025: How improbable was J.J. Spaun’s walk-off birdie putt? A deep dive into the numbers
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us Open 2025 how improbable was JJ Spawn’s walk-off birdie putt a deep dive into the numbers his walk-off birdie putt on the final green settled the week no more T-shots no more putts no more drama it was over but just how incredible was the 279th shot of Spawn’s week at Oak the answer of course is very very incredible so I dove into the numbers behind the moment to shine some light on the walk-off putt that won the 2025 US Open the heroics for Spawn came after a 90-minute weather delay on Sunday after changing clothes and coming back out he made birdies on 12 and 14 and then hit what then felt like the shot of the week on the drivable par 417th a 310yd drive that finished just 17 ft from the hole he two putted for birdie and regained the solo lead for the first time since the fourth hole on Saturday he had one hole to play and he led by one shot with the tournament on the line he hit this T-shot straight down the middle it finished 308 yds and left him just 190 yards to one of the hardest holes in the US Open rotor as Spawn played the 18th hole only three of the 62 players who had played the hole had made birdie just like Dustin Johnson in 2016 Spawn hit a sixiron for his approach into the 72nd hole however unlike DJ who hit his approach to 4 ft Spawn’s ball finished 64t 6 in from the hole his approach albeit conservative actually lost strokes to the field the strokes gained approach value of his approach from 190 yards was minus0.08 before Spawn got to his ball and began to study the putt he got a fortuitous break victor Hovland playing alongside Spawn on Sunday had missed the fairway and hit his approach to the left side of the green also it came to rest 66 ft from the hole on almost the identical line spawn would get to see Havland putt before attempting to win his first major championship worth noting in eight previous major appearances he had never finished in the top 20 dot amazingly Spawn hadn’t hold a putt longer than 35 ft all season on the PGA Tour spawn has played nearly 1,000 holes on tour in 2025 972 and this was his first made putt over 35 ft and it was nearly double that length to put it in context Spawn’s birdie putt gained plus 1.24 shots on the field sam Burns leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting in 2025 gaining plus 1.03 shots per round in fact only one player since 2004 has gained on average more than one shot per round on the Greens jason Day in 2016 spawn did better than that with one stroke gaining over a stroke on the field in one shot is extremely rare consider how incredible Bryson’s bunker shot on the 72nd hole was at Pinehurst last year it gained plus 0.94 shots it seems the US Open is getting used to drama on the 72nd hole this year it was a walk-off
