The San Antonio Spurs jumped in the lottery for a third straight year. They are now loaded with up to six first-round picks to trade, including the second overall selection in the upcoming 2025 draft. They also have several young players of interest, but I think they’re going to try to keep them all. De’Aaron Fox nudging his way to San Antonio was just the tip of the iceberg. It feels like Giannis Antetokounmpo will consider the Spurs as a preferred destination and they might have the most attractive package for him.

In this video, I analyze the Spurs salary cap situation for the upcoming season and show what is required from them to acquire Antetokounmpo.

Spurs offseason preview: https://www.thirdapron.com/p/san-antonio-spurs-five-big-decisions
Spurs offseason discussion: https://youtu.be/YrCowG9BYmU

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hey everyone welcome to the show i’m Yosi Goslin NBA salary cap analyst and welcome back to my salary cast if you’re not familiar with my work a year ago when I started this channel I would make these team ccentric videos where I talked about uh hypothetical moves they can make and I show my work and show the all the CBA and salary cap minutia stuff they have to abide by and now that we’re past the lottery and we have a little bit more clarity on what where teams stand what they can do I think it’s time to start doing these again and seeing how the Spurs just jumped up to the lottery I think they’re the first team to talk about and as you can see in the bottom I am going to show how they can uh just jumpst start their contention window trade for a guy like Giannis Atendent Kumba who I think is probably the Spurs are probably the biggest contender to get him right now they seem to have the most attractive package and I’m sure they’ll be one of his top preferences and also go over what a dear Fox extension could look like that’s going to be another big priority and just how they could fill up the roster show what the cap sheet will look like in the end uh so it’s just going to be some fun salary cap stuff uh I also suggest you check the description i have already covered the Spurs where I had uh Noah Maggaro George he covers them on my podcast we talked about them a couple months ago so you get some good context there and also I put a link to my uh preview on the Spurs where I talked about them uh what their offseason could look like i got into more details on a Fox extension uh Sohan extension so a couple other things that I don’t really talk about in this video you’ll find it in that preview uh but yeah let’s get to the actual video so here’s the Spurs current cap sheet heading into the off season uh so biggest thing of note they moved up from 8 to2 that adds about $7 million to their payroll uh number two pick makes like a pretty good amount of money uh they have the 14th P pick they’re keeping that now marks the third year in a row where the Spurs not only keep a top four pick but also moving up in the lottery so very strong stretch of lottery luck for the Spurs uh so even though their payroll jumped up a little bit with the results of the lottery uh they still project to be under the first apron and more importantly the luxury tax so you might be thinking well if they’re going to trade for Giannis or an all-star like that and why would they still want to deduct the tax couple reasons the main one is that when you’re in the tax for three or four seasons uh you become a repeater you get designated as a repeater you pay higher tax rates uh in the future so they still have Victor Webyama on their rookie deal where he’s basically making the mid-level so they got to take advantage of that they got to make they’re going to try not to pay the tax because eventually Webyama is probably going to get a max contract if you’re going to have potentially three max players on the roster you’re going to be paying tax best to delay starting that repeater tax so you can be in the tax later if that makes sense uh so that’s the thing like I’m sure it’s not really necessarily about the money uh but it just practically speaking if you conduct it right now uh they should do it uh it’s also worth noting that the CBA the new one in 2023 changed the rules we’re starting this upcoming season uh the luxury tax rates are going to be much higher starting in some of the deeper the deeper you go basically I’m not going to get into the exact details but um yeah so they’re going to want so especially if they are in the repeater tax it’s going to make the those penalties way higher so expect them to duck the tax and they will probably be able to as I go through this they’re going to be able to field a pretty deep team and potentially trade for an all-star all within staying the under the tax so last year they had cap space they use some of it to sign Chris Paul they traded for Harrison Barnes this year they’re most likely going to be an overthe cap team so they’ll have the non-t tax pyramid level exception uh the bannual exception you can see those amounts listed there and they’ll be able to resign their free agents here are some of them the biggest one I’ve noticed Chris Paul uh so they’ll be able to use all these different types of avenues to deepen the roster while going over the cap and the other thing is that they can increase their payroll in a trade so unlike some teams that are already pretty expensive they kind of have to do like dollar for-doll type trades the Spurs don’t need to do that so they’ll be able to increase their payroll and probably even use some of these other avenues I mentioned uh to uh to in to to deepen the roster and still stay within the tax uh they could also engage in signing trades while staying below the first apron all these things I just mentioned that they could do it would all hard cap them below the first apron but that won’t really be that it won’t really matter because they’re going to probably duck the tax anyways now as you look at the roster they have plenty of salary matching they can do without having to save money and open up cap space between Devin Vel Harrison Barnes Kell Johnson uh even Jeremy Sohan perhaps Stefan Castle they’ve got enough money to make uh a trade for a Max player work uh but before I So I’m going to get into what those combinations could be i’ll tell you the type I’ll show you the type of combination I think it’ll end up the Spurs will end up trying to push for but first I want to get into the Dear Fox extension so the Spurs acquired Darren Fox during the offseason for what I would consider was like almost very minimal value uh and I think that kind of makes the possibility of if there is a max contract already baked into it uh you know bring him in in the fact that they gave up very little I think kind of helps with that so he’s eligible to extend the summer it’s a maximum of four years 200 projected about 229 million uh would be 30% of the max starts out at 51 million and tops out at 63 million in his age 32 season i highly suggest you guys do check out my Spurs preview on Third Apron uh from the description because I get into uh I really dug into comparisons historical comparisons i looked at guards that got max contracts on their third contracts and and like to comparatively Fox is probably one of it’s like far less accomplished than a lot of these guys uh you know guys like Chris Paul Russell Westbrook Steph Curry there’s more of them what I’d be interested in knowing is if the Spurs could potentially negotiate him into something a little bit less in the Max a couple days ago I released a Hawks offseason preview and I talked about Trey Young’s potential extension and I came to the conclusion that I’m not in sure there’s going to be a max contract out there for him and something that might make more sense is maybe something closer to like the 25% max which is what he’s already making and I’m not here to compare trade with Fox but I do feel like they’re in a similar tier where they probably shouldn’t be making the full Max but I think like they should definitely still be making more what they’re currently getting so here is the projection that I made for Train i think it’s pretty applicable for Fox uh he still makes more money than he ever has uh on each season the money goes up each year uh averages about 25% of the cap and for the Spurs they’re getting about 8 million less a year uh on his contract which could be a pretty big difference it might not seem like that much but when it comes to managing the cap in the future years especially when they do enter the tax it could make a meaningful difference in potentially adding having another player on the rotation uh within without making the luxury tax bill go too crazy now before I get into any hypothetical trade I want to go over what the Spurs have to offer mainly their first round picks because after the Fox trade they still have in my opinion a pretty good uh collection of valuable first round picks the only one of value that in my opinion they really gave up for Fox was the Wolves first in 2031 and they traded a Bulls first which is back to the Bulls which probably won’t convey so as you can see they still have at least one first round pick in every single draft through their next seven seasons uh the other one that I didn’t mention they traded to the Kings was a 2027 first their own but they they already have a 2027 unprotected from the Hawks coming in so since they have a pick in every single draft they don’t have any restriction on which trade uh pick they can trade they could technic so every single pick at the moment is trade eligible uh now they can’t trade them all so the way I showed it is that I think the Spurs based on how they approach the Darren Fox trade they’re I think they’re going to try to keep all their players i’m talking like Stefan Castle Devin Vel may even Harrison Barnes uh I think they’re going to try to keep all these guys and in exchange try to uh you know try to compensate for that by trading uh their draft picks uh I just think that you know if they’re going to bring in Giannis they’re going to need some shooting so they’re going to want to keep Velin Barnes i think they’re seems like they’re very attached with Stefon Castle he could be a very good point of attack defender one day and that’s just like another type of guy they don’t have other than him on the roster so after the draft is done they they make the two selections they would be able then to trade a maximum of four additional picks which would be in the even number year so it’d be a 2026 first a 2028 first a 2031st and a 2032 first now uh you might be thinking okay well the Spurs are going to be really good in the later years most likely why should you get excited about getting those picks and the thing is they have done a really nice job acrewing swaps over the years that adds a little more variability to the value of those first round picks so in 2026 they have a Hawk swap next year 2028 they have a swap with the Celtics which you know what might be looking a little better now 2030 they have uh swaps to get the most favorable of the Mavs and Wolves swap so uh you know in 2031 if they wanted to trade that one instead they you know they’ve got to swap with the Kings so all of a sudden you’re not necessarily going to get locked into a Spurs pick potentially but you might get another team’s pick if one of those teams falter so I don’t know if the Spurs need to give all this up to have the best offer for Giannis but I get the feeling they are going to prioritize trying to keep their guys and hopefully try to get something done with a big combination of these picks so here’s a type of scenario I could see the Spurs really pushing to try to acquire Giannis at Tindo it’s a pick heavy package allows them to keep all those guys I mentioned now a couple things first of all this is just what I envision the Spurs are going to try to send out from their perspective if they do end up getting Yiannis it’s not going to be a two-team trade in all likelihood is going to be a three or four team trade with these various picks going to different teams where maybe the Bucks get some of them but ideally the Bucks are also getting uh some players some veterans or young players that they prefer from other teams and these picks are going to those teams to get the you know whatever it is the Bucks want back so something that could work it’s like they get the number two pick from the Spurs maybe Sohan if they want him and then they’re also getting you know some various other players from other teams i’m just showing what the Spurs are mainly sending out on their end so they need to send out a minimum of $43.1 million to match for Yiannis’ uh $54.1 million uh salary it’s within 25% of it uh now one other thing is that this trade uh would one have to be done at least on July 6th because that’s a new salary cap year however this exact framework wouldn’t be able to work until at least August 1st and the main reason is because I’ve got them using the number two pick and the number 14 pick as part of the salary matching any first round pick that is signed cannot be used uh towards salary matching in a trade until one month after it’s signed so this is the big way the Spurs are able to inflate their salary while only sending out like Kellen Johnson mainly as their big salary piece uh to eventually make the money work um this is the same uh element that delayed the Kevin Love for Andrew Wiggins swap back trade back in 2014 they had to wait for Andrew Wiggins salary to uh have been signed for a month so they can use that towards the matching component for Kevin Love so the Spurs are able to make up about a third of the salary just with their first two first round picks alone uh everyone else for the most part salary matching i’m sure they would go to other the other teams but they get within 25% of Giannis’ salary uh they increase the payroll by only about 8 million so they’re now hard caps the first apron so let’s take a look and see what the roster would look like so as you can see the Spurs really loaded up on their top five and six for next year and they have a pretty deep bench in my opinion you’ve got Giannis at the max over here you’ve got f Fox making his max deon Vel Harrison Barnes Vanyama uh and notice that I removed Blake Wesley as well who I don’t really think is going to be in their plans uh so one thing they could do is trade him for a $10 million player u another thing they could do is trade him to save money maybe attach a couple second round picks they have a lot of second round picks i don’t even know what the number is but it’s I know it’s the highest in the league and they save some money they could open up using the non-ax pyramid level exception i’ve got them only using about 10 million just so they can have some space to stay below the luxury tax i left them about 2 million below the tax because Deon Vel has some incentives that he could very well hit and also just to have like an emergency signing in case something happens uh so you know just have that in their disposal i also have them with their second round pick uh number 38 overall and yeah so you know this is the type of roster I would imagine the Spurs are going to try to push for if they’re going to acquire Giannis now a couple things i understand that it’s probably unrealistic or more unlikely that they’re able that they’re going to be able to pull off a trade for Giannis without including uh some of these guys like Deon Vel or Stefan Castle or Harrison Barnes uh but at the same time I’m also uh maybe those six up to six first round picks maybe there is a combination of stuff they could do with other teams to satisfy the Bucks maybe they don’t even need to give up that many picks to make something happen so I I feel like whether it does involve uh some of the other players that I have them keeping here or those picks I I think either pathway does have uh a path to get them giannis it’s also kind of unrealistic that a team would want to wait a month to potentially acquire the number two pick they wouldn’t have him during summer league and waiting a month to complete this trade could hold up other moves in free agency in general so because of that aspect yeah it’s pro there’s probably a very good chance that they would have to get the trade done earlier which means they might have to include a guy like Devin Vel or Harrison Barnes or maybe they can uh get Chris Paul involved in a signing trade uh some of their other free agents to to help inflate the money kind of like what the Knicks did in that Carl Anthony Towns trade last year but this framework is just way more fun i do want to circle back to the Fox extension to see how it impacts things for next year because if the Spurs do nothing else to add any long-term money meaning they don’t trade for an all-star they don’t really sign anyone else uh other than their first round picks mostly run it back they and the only thing they do is sign Fox and let’s just put him at a max salary for now they would still have cap space next summer something about like in the 30 million range which isn’t a lot but it’s just important to note because having the cap space is a way to leverage a trade than to actually sign someone nowadays that’s basically how they were able to get Darren Fox as early as they did because he was going to be a free agent in 2026 and you know made it clear to the Kings that he was probably going to sign there uh once he hit free agency so they were able to get that outcome now so they could still leverage a trade for a different all-star later in case they don’t trade for an all-star now obviously Giannis attend Kumbu he’s signed uh he’s under contract through like 2028 I think so you know they wouldn’t be able to leverage any anything for him but they could maybe get somebody else uh if they don’t get anyone else right now and now if we look at their payroll for next season after acquiring Yiannis attendent Koopo uh hypothetically and I’ve got Fox signing that extension I suggested they have their top five guys uh Barnes is expired at that point but with these guys they are still having a pretty healthy cap sheet uh they should still be able to avoid the luxury tax next season while fielding the rest of their team uh they could run back a similar roster that I put back resign a guy like resign guys like Harrison Barnes whoever they used with the sign with their mid-level exception um you know maybe if Barnes isn’t as effective anymore they could have traded him by then but either way they have the avenue to run back a pretty the topheavy roster that uh I put together for this upcoming season and running back for the next season as their last stay under the tax type season before he’s this would be his last year making his rookie deal jumps into the max and pushes the Spurs payroll into a huge deep territory um I think the biggest thing from that point I’m not going to project into that is that hopefully the penalties aren’t too deep and maybe they could stay below the second apron to avoid certain penalties like freezing the draft pick seven years in the future um but for this core honestly it might be worth all that all right guys that’s everything I got if you have any feedback let me know in the comments do you think it’s something that’s possible do you think it’s too unrealistic i feel like a lot of you guys might say that uh let me know in the comments what you think make sure you’re following me on Twitter and Blue Skyos Gazin you can find all my previous work also under Yoscazin on YouTube Spotify and Apple and check the description i’ve got as you can see in the top left uh corner I’ve got the sports business classroom logo i’m going to be an instructor there for the salary cap uh major and you could check out what that program is i have spots available and I’m having a promotion in the description you could check it out if you sign up with code third apron get a lifetime subscription for the Third Apron newsletter

24 Comments

  1. Great content. Spurs have such a unique and fascinating situation on the cusp of greatness. Probably more likely have to include Castle/Barnes/salary necessary + 2/14 + more. Bucks will want to set future up next decade

    Would Love to see you make a video in an attempt to fix my Suns mess of a situation lmao

  2. Trading 6-7 years of your future for 2-3 POSSIBLE years of title contention just isn’t the “Spurs way”. The smartest move is to roll with Fox, Wemby, Castle, and Harper (or whoever they draft) and use the swaps/ picks they have to fill in the future. Giannis is amazing but the spurs future is so unbelievably bright I just don’t see it being worth what they have to give up. The picks give them a lot more options and I just can’t see the Spurs taking that big of a risk.

  3. Please stop trying to give us(Spurs) Giannis. Spurs trying to build a dynasty within, not trying to be in a predicament like Phoenix Suns, LA Lakers, or the New Jersey Nets.

  4. Great video! Spurs have too many ball handlers to draft Harper… Castle is ideally a PG to me… Why draft another ball dominant guy?? Rutgers looked better without Harper

  5. See if Bucks will accept #14 pick + future picks + Harrison Barnes + De'Aaron Fox sign and trade deal for Giannis and Tyler Smith. Spurs should keep #2 pick and draft Dylan Harper. If Bucks don't want to deal, try trade with Suns for Kevin Durant or Celtics for Kristaps Porzingis.

  6. The Bucks aren't trading Giannis without Castle being involved. It's going to take picks and Castle+. He's the second best player in the entire league; we gotta be serious about this.

  7. Spurs will stay the course. Slowly build through the draft.
    Let Houston or Dallas mortgage their future away for the Greek Freak.

  8. As good as Giannis is, I wouldn't go that route. I really can't say what I would do, because I don't know if CP3 is resigning with them, so that is a part of the problem when it comes to the #2 draft. I honestly think they have enough Guards, & even more than half of them don't even get playing time. If I were the Spurs, I would pick Ace Bailey with the #2 & I would try to land Asa Newell or Noa Essengue with my #14. They really need to invest in a backup Center in which I would go after Rocco from Australia. He's stayed under the radar, but he's a promising prospect. I would also try to sign Naz Reid, because he can play PF/Center & can stretch the floor. Barnes needs to be moved back to his original SF position. I would trade Vassell for Cam Johnson. I think these are the best options for the Spurs, & I really hope 🤞🏻 that they make the correct decisions with this opportunity.

  9. Some people are really thinking of trading a number 2 pick for giannis?😅 you never know who you are drafting i will tell you we will cry later if we don't trade for giannis it will take us 5 years back

  10. 3 team trade:

    – Spurs recieve: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma

    – Magic recieve: De'Aaron Fox

    – Bucks recieve: Franz Wagner, Devin Vassel, Keldon Johnson, 2nd pick of this draft and 14th pick of the draft (San Antonio)

    Something around this I think would work for all 3 teams

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