U.S. Open Round 2 Recap | Round 3 Preview and Picks

The Golfbet team is updating the betting boards to help you make your live bets and picks as the U.S. Open heads to the weekend a Oakmont Country Club

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more carnage at the US Open for round number two at Oakmont Country Club Bryson Desambo will not be defending his title Is Scotty Sheffller still in this thing Some will say yes some will say no And that’s what we got to talk about on the golf bet team chat here on a Friday night with Sam Burns in the lead barely over JJ Spawn and Victor Havlin who many people felt like came out of nowhere Will we weren’t giving him much of a chance on Thursday and now here he is with the second lowest odds of the tournament on Friday What are you talking what what I didn’t We weren’t giving him much of a chance I wrote a column saying to get on him at 35 to1 last night You might have read it at golfb.com I was in on Victor I thought the ball striking was great He had an incredibly poor putting day in the opening round The putting worked out in a much better way He’s actually leading the field in strokes getting around the green which for Victor Havlin is like walking to the moon Uh but but you know listen to green he’s in good shape He’s actually talking positively about his game So listen we’re talk there’s a lot about Sam Burns today He’s the story of the day shooting at 65 has the lead is the betting favorite going into Saturday But Victor Havlin deserves to be right there in that discussion Tell 2021 Victor Havlin that he’s leading the field and strokes gain around the green Here’s our three Uh whether you think these three are the ones who are going to win is it going to be one of these three I’m not ready to say that it’s one of these three Just w with how when it comes to relative to par how mediocre the scores are I mean Sam Burns a three under This guy was plus two after two round after a round yesterday Got hot today Yes he’s played very good golf You know what happened last week I am not ready Will to say that Sam Burns is going to go out there and post a round on Saturday that keeps him in the lead because I think anything can happen if the driver is not perfect for you Oh yeah I mean listen any of these guys can shoot 76 moments notice That’s that’s what it’s about in Oakmont It’s a wild phenomenon here where you have no water essentially You don’t have a a ton of crazy obstacles All you have is a very difficult course with undulating fairways very thick rough and super slick greens And that’s enough to you know they’re living on the razor’s edge at this point Shane Lowry talked after his round you know he shot 16 17 over and he said “I spent the entire day two inches off the green two inches off the fairway and it cost you here at Oakmont.” So yeah these guys listen Sam Burn shot at 65 today He gets you to 75 tomorrow But likewise we could see guys that are at two three or four over par that I guarantee you Chris are going to bed thinking they still have a chance to win the US It’s easy and fair to look at this these three and think about who’s behind them But let’s forget about who’s behind them The only players who are underp right now are these three In your mind if if in your gut which one of these three would you think has the lead after Saturday I mean whether is the lead after Saturday I’m not sure But of the three who I I think has the best chance to win this tournament is Victor Hoff You know Sam Burns has five wins to his credit on PJ tour but has not won in over two years We saw JJ Spawn go toe-to-toe with Rory at the players But Victor Havlin has been in the arena a few more times and has has climbed a few different mountains uh than both of those guys And I listen Victor Havlin is a little bit kind of like an agent of chaos at this point You don’t really know what to expect out of him you don’t you’re not really sure how he’s going to evaluate his own game but man when it is all clicking I think he has the highest ceiling of any of these three guys and I think that it’s definitely a high enough ceiling to potentially win a major title Yeah I mean the the raw talent is there and sometimes he makes it seem effortless I I would agree If if I think anybody on this list is going to win it’s going to be Victor Havlin With Spawn to me it just feels like you’re waiting for that moment when it gets too big for him Uh it didn’t happen today for the most part He spent most of the day in the league but then starts to drop off I for one and tell me if you’d feel differently think at some point it may not be tomorrow at some point JJ Spawn’s gonna see this and fall back to the pack just just just because of the player that he has been and the inexperience of what he’s doing right now Potentially I I will be interested to see how much he learned from that experience at TPC SARS right going you know toe-to-toe in a playoff on a Monday morning with Rory Mroy uh having a putt to win that tournament in the in the darkness on on the 72nd bowl Those are the sort of building blocks and stepping stones that can lead to bigger things He was very open about you know this is basically a career resurgence for him in his mid30s He’s lost a lot of weight He’s gotten in better shape Uh you know he’s got a couple kids focusing on dad life So uh it’s a bit of a renaissance for JJ Spawn and he’s having a great year even though he hasn’t won you know headlined by that runner-up finish uh at TBC Srass So I do think that I’d feel more comfortable about him knowing what he went through in March than if he was just coming in cold off the bench and we hadn’t been talking about him all year Uh but that being said if you’re asking me who is more likely to win this tournament I’m going to take Havlin then I’m going to take Burns then then I’m going to say JJ SP Here’s what I love about this tournament right now We’re talking about the so-called favorites and they’re three under they’re two under and they’re one under Look at their odds okay And now look at the odds of the next guys on the board Ben Griffin and Adam Scott are both even par They’re one shot back of Victor Hoblin And look at their odds compared to the other three leaders Brooks Kepka is two over par John Rom’s a little farther back He’s the sleeping giant we talked about That’s why his number is so low Is there a guy on this list that you think these favorites should be worried about Because all four of them have a great number if you want to bet on him For sure Now we have also skipped over a certain world number one who’s kind of sandwiched in between I know I know I’m just saying it’s not we’re not going straight to Ben Griffin Uh of this group I I’m very high on Adam Scott I think that this is a a chance for him to have uh a win that frankly would just be a paradigm shift It would redefine how Adam Scott is viewed if he gets two two major wins in and in addition to being world number one in addition to winning the players Uh listen he’s second strokate off the tea seventh stroko approach We know the issues that he sometimes has on the greens but this is a course in a tournament where you need ball strikers and elite ball strikers at that Adam Scott fits the bill He has the patience to handle the ups and downs of a US Open and the temperament to handle Oakmont and and Tita Green He’s in a really good spot right now heading into the weekend Just three shots off the lead You know what you what to expect You know what you’re getting with Adam Scott I should say when when you’re halfway through a tournament you’ve seen what he’s done for 36 holes I for one would expect that to relatively stay the same I know weather and conditions could be different over the weekend I think what we’re getting is what we’re seeing with Adam Scott That’s awesome With Kepka and Rahm Kepka concerns about the driver It wasn’t great like it was yesterday And John Rom you saw the frustration in him that we’ve seen the last couple of years where things go wrong and it starts to snowball and bogey after bogey and he gets off the lead for a while and he’s not really on track anymore I don’t see either of those guys in the mix You agree I mean listen Chris I’m I’m looking at it like anyone at four over par or better has a chance to win this golf tournament Yes we have guys like Rory back at six over You got some guys that are making the cut at seven over that they have a chip in the chair They got a chance to win And I know that my former colleague Justin Ray has a bunch of stats about where you need to be at the halfway point It’s probably a top 10 is going to be your line in the sand of historically where the winner is coming from But ah man this one just feels a little bit more wide open The twos and the threes are definitely still in the mix knowing they’re only what five and six shots off the lead and only have a few guys under par that they’re chasing But even if you go back to the guys at four over par through 36 holes I having talked to multiple players including Adam Scott yesterday that think that four over par is going to be the winning score right Like those guys that are at four over could be sitting on the winning score right now You go 68 72 72 68 whatever and you’re right back where you need to be and you got a chance going down the stretch on Sunday I’m really glad you bring up the outliers and those stats that we see that everybody loves talking about those numbers You got to be XYZ or you’re not winning There’s always outliers We see it every once in a while That’s why you can never confirm it’s going to happen I think that kind of outlier right now is a guy like Ben Griffin somebody who’s never won a major who clearly is hot right now now knows how to win on the PGA Tour How many times have we seen major champions get their first major it felt like it was out of nowhere and they make a name for themselves because of what they were able to do and they believe they can do it Ben Griffin could have folded today He had chances to fold and now he’s still there a couple shots off the lead I I don’t I’m not ready to give up on him at all No I’m not giving up on him I just think I would rather have Adam Scott at plus 1600 than Ben Griffin at plus 1100 knowing the the test that comes through on the weekend and what it takes to win a US Open You’re right Listen Ben Griffin outside of Scotty Shuffler is the hot hand on the PGA Tour I think we need to start talking about Ben Griffin Ryder Cup participant at Beth Page uh in September given how well he’s been playing through the summer Uh so it wouldn’t be a total shock given what he’s done over the last couple months but I’ll still take a little bit of a better price on a guy that has been in this arena a time or two before And I’ll take out Scott Very fair to say Okay now we can talk about the guy we’ve been waiting for Scotty Sheffler continues to have these short odds I’m putting him and Rory together because again they’re relatively close on the leaderboard a two shot difference now compared to one yesterday at four over and six over But again huge difference in odds And if you’re so inclined to bet on Sheffller I mean go for it I I I for one do not understand going for a top five at basically even money for a top 10 which he’s not even at right now I get that there can be a lot of different things that happen over the weekend I’m steer steering clear from both of these guys I got no business betting either of these guys for any market I I listen I understand Sheffller’s probably a little bit short It’s it’s a little crazy for me to see Scotty Shuffler as the fourth shortest player on the board for the outright But the thing is especially when you get into top fives and top 10 markets He hasn’t done anything wrong right You look at Rory and he’s had the blowup holes and he’s gotten you know caught up in the bunker Scotty hasn’t really done that He’s missed a couple putts He missed a couple of shots here and there but it it hasn’t been one where you’re like “Wow this is a really rough four or six hole stretch for Scotty Shepler.” And so the more golf you play especially on a demanding course like this the more it’s going to play into Scotty Sheffller’s hands you know what’s what’s the worst he’s going to shoot tomorrow 73 74 Whereas I think he’s got a really good chance of shooting something around where he may be under par and that’s really going to just shoot him up the leaderboard So uh you know if if Scotty Sheper plays even par or one over the rest of the way he could win this golf tournament He’s certainly going to be cash in those top five or top 10 props Rory has a much bigger mountain to climb I know he birdied 18 to make the cut He give himself a little bit of a cushion Uh so that was a step in the right direction but he still seemed way more of a high variance option than Sheffler who is just kind of plotting along and doing a lot right but not everything right I will say Chris the one caution is we saw Scotty the media center is right next to the driving range here at Oakmont and we saw him grinding absolutely grinding on a post round range session which is very unlike Scotty He had swing coach Randy Randy Smith out there He had a trackman out which usually he does not do My our colleague Paul Hoani pointed out that he’s usually you know one of those guys that plays by field Isn’t going to be looking at those flight numbers like he does with Trackman but he had the machine out today He was hitting a lot of fairway woods a lot of drivers trying to find something So it’s the swing is not quite there The results are hanging in there to give it a chance but man the more golf you play the more it’s going to tip in the scales for Scott Yeah I I hate to say you’re right but you you’re probably looking at that If this continues to be guys coming back to the pack and Shuffler’s just sitting there I guess we’ll wait and see Before we go I I want to see if we can give the folks a chance to maybe make some money on a prop bet specifically a top five market that I think is very interesting for these three players just given the odds for Henley Bradley and Morawa Because I look at Henley he was your pick for for a prop this week I believe it was top 10 right Yep So I watched Russell Henley today feel like he couldn’t do anything right and then all of a sudden he makes a handful of birdies coming in and look where he sits on the leaderboard right now and still three to one for a top five This guy continues to hit the green continues to two putt and continues to make his pars If we’re going to see everybody start to struggle all weekend Henley for top five three to one sounds awesome to me Yes Uh he was an absolute magician today The driver disappeared on him He’s 137th Wow In strokes gained off the tea One of the worst off the tee in the entire field and he still comes in at a 72 Right This is just a a player that has the comportment and the mentality that really fits with a US Open This is a tournament where we said going in He’s finished T14 or better three of the last four years He’s right where he needs to be I’m not looking at Russell Henley to potentially win this tournament but man give me a top five or certainly a top 10 I think he’s going to remain in the mix He’s he’s a streaky putter but it’s working well on the green so far through 36 holes I think that continues into the weekend And I think the driver is going to improve and get closer to where he was in round one than what we saw him trying to endure in round two Keegan Bradley’s been all over the place Tons of bogeies tons of birdie stretches Colin Morawa was Colin Morawa Uh either of those guys would you say yes or no to the folks Uh excuse me I think Keegan is interesting because you enter the conversation of is he going to play his way onto his own RDER Cup team at this point coming off a T8 finish at the PGA I think it’s a real conversation uh especially if he remains in the mix Moratawa has the ball striking but you always have to wonder about the putts And we saw him have a few really skittish holes uh today during round two So of the three I certainly like Henley I would probably go in that order Give me Henley then Bradley then Morow for looking at a top five All right fun stuff You guys stay dry on Saturday and we’ll be back tomorrow night for more bets for Sunday’s final round We will It’s going to be fun [Music] [Music]