Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats at Fantasy National making his early 2025 US Open Picks. Plus, Mayo speaks with Andrew Novak, Alex Blickle and Keith Stewart to get their insights on the course and how they expect Oakmont to play over Father’s Day weekend.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro/Quick Notes
8:23 Course Info/Flyover & US Open History
20:56 Andrew Novak
28:25 Keith Stewart
1:14:33 Alex Blickle
1:34:23 US Open Stat Research & Model
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you know like every time I see Max Home on the range he looks like he’s just looking for a hole to go crawl in and when I see Scotty he’s walking around like his pants are unzipped entering the mail experience experience mayo [Music] experience pat Mayo experience experience welcome to the Pat Mayo Experience presented by Underdog the US Open Research Show and some picks to go along with it i got three fabulous guests lined up for today keith Stewart’s going to be doing a deep dive with me on the course alex Blickl who played Oakmont as a part of the Pennsylvania Open in 2015 the year before it hosted the US Open which Dustin Johnson won is going to be on and currently top 10 in the FedEx Cup standings andrew Novak who is in the field this week is going to be on the show breaking down his assessment of what it’s going to require to compete at Oakmont this week you can catch the full Andrew Novak interview on tomorrow’s show where we talk about his season the US Open the upcoming Open Championship and his RDER Cup aspirations and on Saturday I have a special show coming out with me and a PGA professional playing Oakmont on a simulator going hole by hole showing where the pros actually want to miss and you get to roast my swing the entire time because it’s not good i’ll tell you that right now his very good mine not so much but it’s an interesting discussion to have with a pro playing it from the tips obviously much easier on a simulator than we’re going to see in real life but it’s a fun conversation talking through some of the players and their specific misses and why that might be beneficial or detrimental to their performance at Oakmont for the 2025 US Open i want to remind everyone to smash the like and sub to the channel in the comment section you give me your early winner for the US Open you’ll get into a draw for a pair of two boxes let’s say of Provx underdog balls i will send those out to you plus I might have some more equipment giveaways coming next week so if you just do the giveaway right now then you’re going to be in the draw for that one as well there’s going to be cash giveaways as well so give me the winner in the comments section if you want extra ways to get extra ballots into that draw subscribe rate and review on Apple and Spotify that always goes a long way sub to the free newsletter we’ll have more detailed written info coming out plus all the hot links throughout the course of the week that’s down in the description right now and please anytime that you see one of these shows or an article pertaining to the US Open on social media primarily X at the PME you share that around you get ballots into the draw who doesn’t want some crisp i use some today some crisp provs with the underdog insignia on it if you use code Mayo right now at underdog you get the deposit bonus of up to $1,000 you get a free pick for the US Open and one of the key features to Underdog right now as a part of the fantasy game which is available in almost every state California New York Florida and Texas all in that mix to make the cut and to miss the cut plays you can put eight of those together i know people are always asking me where you can play those and I love the to miss the cuts for the US Open because it’s a full field of 156 players and only the top 60 in ties end up making the cuts and because Oakmont is prepared to play so difficult we are going to see some blowups from some big players you’re going to take a look at the top 10 on the odds board and like three or four of those guys are likely to miss the cut we see it every year at the US Open no matter how great you feel about a player unless it’s Scotty honestly if Bryson and Rory miss the cut I wouldn’t be stunned that’s not going to go well for one of my bets and I really hope that doesn’t happen but it’s certainly on the table just based on how out of control things can get at Oakmont if you shoot even par you’re probably going to be inside the top five this week that is how difficult it’s going to play i get the crews assessment on that a little bit later on of what they think the winning score is going to be and the skills that they need to do before we get into the research you can always jump around to the time codes as well but I’m going to hit you with a a few facts about the US Open right now is the first time it’s been played at Oakmont since Dustin Johnson won at four under par in 2016 going back to that year there was massive weather delays dustin didn’t actually tee off until Friday for his first round almost got both of his rounds in and he striped it the entire week came in in excellent form and that translated through it is shocking he didn’t win by more strokes that week with the way that he drove the ball went a little bit off the rails in the third round for him but then he got it back together in the fourth round shane Lowry actually went in with a pretty significant lead into the final day of the US Open he shot seven under in the third round on the Saturday at Oakmont which there’s going to be a few of those scores out there this week i don’t know if anyone actually shoots a 63 like Lowry did but there’s going to be a 65 a 66 in an isolated round that’s great you’re going to You don’t necessarily need something like that to win the tournament it’s all about keeping it together when things start going off the rails and that’s going to be so important this week and we’re going to try to talk through the different ways that you can do that accuracy being at the very top of that list that’s not necessarily how we think about US Opens the past five six seven US Opens just sort by driving distance take that guy three of the top 10 are going to be inside the top five that’s just how the US Open goes and frankly I think that’s how it’s probably going to go end up going again this week because there are misses that you can have here that are much better than certain other misses as Blick will point out a little bit later on you are much better with a big miss deep left 20 yards from the fairway than you are just simply rolling through these firm and fast fairways and being nestled a yard off because that is in the deep deep rough where you want to hit it is where the people are standing because your ball might actually sit up in the 5 and 1/2 in rough you thought the rough was bad at Mirfield Village it’s going to be an inch to two inches longer this week and there is a little bit of rain in the forecast right now and earlier on in the week before it starts to dry out throughout the course of the week so super long rough mixed with wetness is a recipe for disaster for a lot of these guys hence why listen if you can keep in the short crash you’re going to hit a lot of greens in regulation on these gigantic greens but if you can hit it further down even if you miss the fairway you’re just simply going to have shorter clubs to try to hack it on and maybe roll it up on some of these greens we see that in the simulator preview a lot where there are certain holes where you can roll it up and other ones with false fronts where you’re going to have to really figure out where you want to get to your key distance to to lay up especially even on the second par five on the back side where very few people if any are actually going to get there into Bryson might be able to get there rory might be able to get there but Dustin didn’t get there in any of the four rounds in 2016 and dude led the field in driving distance and was up there in accuracy as well and he still couldn’t get there almost got there in round number two but didn’t get there in any of the four rounds so Bryson has more distance Rory has more distance hell Minw did at that time right now so maybe some guys are going to be getting there but certainly not an eagle hole by any stretch of the imagination that would be number four number four is a scorable hole and some of these are scorable holes they can generate birdies especially depending on the pin positions number two comes to mind number 17 could be drivable on certain days it was in the third round of the 2016 US Open that those guys could just take a gez they were hitting like fivewood at it and the bailout is to the bunker on the left depending on where the pin position is of course but you can get up and down there pretty easily but if you miss that bunker and you get nestled down in the rough you can be making bogey or double bogey pretty easily as well there’s going to be an element of luck in terms of drawing good lies out of the rough and just getting a few breaks whether it bounces out rolls into a bunker bunkers are the miss at this course not so much the pew bunkers the fairway bunkers those aren’t so good but the green side bunkers unless you are shortsided from the pin that is going to be the preferred miss unless you can come up short of the green and land in the fairway for a lot of the pros this week the more you can avoid this awful rough the better off that you’re going to be and you’re going to be able to visualize that yourself right now if you’re watching this video with this flyover oakmont CC is playing as a par 70 7372 yards which is longer almost 100 to 150 yards longer than we saw in 2016 poa Greens 8300 square foot greens these are massive 210 bunkers littered around the grounds no water hazards no water on site but the drainage ditches are out there and they won’t have any water in them you can play in them as a penalty area but it’s not going to be a whole lot of fun they’re very covered in fescue no club in America has hosted the US Open more than Oakmont this will be the 10th appearance and 10th time that the national championship has been played here just outside of Pittsburgh oakmont’s famed church pew bunker lies between the third and fourth fairways it’s 100 yards long and 40 yards wide and features 12 grasscovered travesting ridges that resemble church pews that’s why they’re called it the 2021 US amiter was also held at Oakmont jacob Bridgeman and Ricky Castillo that year both made the round of 16 joe Highmith and Ryan Gerard both made the round of 32 and Ryan Gerard is a name that you’ll see pop up when we do the research a little bit later on he’s all over difficult course playing and at least he does have some experience here albeit as an amateur but in USGA conditions bridgemond was T7 after stroke play at minus4 and Highmith was T9 after stroke play at minus3 taking a look at the course there are four par 3 is the average distance 227 yards a lot of that being wrapped up in the super long par three that is number eight that is 289 yards it’s only 23 yards shorter than the aforementioned number 17 this week in 2016 Dustin Johnson par his final seven par threes of the week just trying to figure it out and treading water on the par threes and maybe trying to steal one somewhere along the line is how you want to go par fours there’s 12 of them the average distance is only 436 yards and this is where the hidden distance of Oakmont comes into play because there is a few short ones now a lot of them you’re going to have a decision of whether you want to fly one of those fescue infested penalty areas or not so you’re going to hit iron off some of these TE’s maybe a fivewood for some of the field or you might just be Bryson or Rory and say “Hey I can clear that.” Especially if the wind’s at my back and they go full hog with the driver and get themselves 50 yards from the hole we’ve seen Bryson do that a ton recently and it doesn’t turn out to be a great success at all he just doesn’t his proximity from 100 yards in him was just so terrible at the PGA Championship i think that will be less of a thing this week because simply putting it to 35 ft and two putting is such an advantage and that’s essentially the strategy at Oakmont that that will play to his favor a lot where he doesn’t need to go out and find birdies par is going to be good enough and then he can beat up on these power fives primarily number four the two power fives the average distance is 622 yards both par fives are are on the front half of the respective nines this tournament isn’t going to get a dramatic par five late you’re going to have to the the scorable maybe gamechanging hole is going to be number 17 as that could theoretically be an eagle hole with the perfect drive and it can go the other way as well dustin Johnson on the par fives uh in 2016 made seven pars and a Saturday birdie although he three putted number four both times he was on for eagle and left himself about 80 feet and three putted both of those times just to circle back to the par fours for a minute uh Dustin played the front nine par fours at even par for the week and both nines start you have a 488 yard par4 then a 461 yard par par4 that’s how they start and then they end with super long ones 472 and 502 if you are not beating up and hitting your 175 plus club well this week especially from the fairway i mean there’s a lot of these especially these long par fours that will become threeshot par4s if you get nestled down in that rough there’s just going to be no chance with a long iron to fly it there and hell even stop it there these are firm probably the fastest greens that the players are going to have seen all year long so you’re going to be chunking it up when we get to the research a little bit later on I’m going to try to figure out who the best players are from 50 to 100 yards 100 to 25 just because you’re going to see more shots from that range if the rough really does eat up a lot of these clubs and players can merely advance the ball from the rough or some of these terrible bunkers that that’s the range that they’re going to be in to save par so pairing that up with inside 10-ft putting is going to be essentially key spoiler alert Matthew Pavon a guy who came top five at last year’s US Open at Pinehurst is someone who has done that incredibly well over the course of his career in US Opens to date he’s only played in three of them but it’s been pretty good for him so far some more course notes the turn could be a leverage spot over the weekend holes number nine and number 10 have a cumulative double or worse rate that is greater than their collective underpar rate so survive 9 and 10 and you can be good to go holes 13 14 and 17 are three of the four most birdied holes on the course along with number four all over 16% if you like them in the form of a chaser you could see the streak being put together and that could lead to the clubhouse i wouldn’t be trying to play any sort of birdie streaks in DFS this week though that’s just not not something for the US Open just take your pars and get it a dodge sneak out a birdie or two and just don’t make some double bogeies and you’re going to be fine in 2016 the DraftKings scoring didn’t match cleanly with finishing position jason Day and Zack Johnson both tied for eighth on the final leaderboard but Day scored 21.7% more DraftKings points than Zack Johnson reminder to all of my good friends north of the border in Canada if you live not in Ontario the rest of the country you can take advantage of some sweet deals at coolb.com right now obviously they’re going to have the PME boost throughout the course of the week i think I’m going to get them to pump up Bryson that’s where I’m going to land to get him up to 10:1 11:1 13 to1 fingers crossed on that one no guarantees on the 13 to1 but if you are with Cool Bet you can have access to those if you live in Canada outside of Ontario plus if you hit the description right now you can get a deposit bonus of up to $200 and there is a contest to opt into all you got to do is opt into it and bet on golf easy enough probably something you’re going to do anyway but you opt into that contest with the link that I have down in the description right now and you put yourself into a free trip for you and some friends to go play the Cabbat courses Cabbat Cliffs and Cabbat Links later on in the summertime on airfare hotels the rounds of the course it’s going to be awesome i suggest that you go into go use it at coolb.com right now looking back at the past winners of the US Open Bryson won it six under a year ago at Pinehurst beating Rory coming down the stretch i attempted the Bryson shot out of the sand at Pinehurst earlier this year did not go well windham Clark won at minus 10 at LA Country Club at Brooklyn in 2022 matt Fitzpatrick won at minus 6 rahm won at minus6 at Tory Pines and then at Winged Foot Bryson won at minus 6 the last time that Oakmont was hosting the US Open Dustin Johnson won at minus4 in 2016 the first round leader that year was Andrew Landry it was his only 60 for the week dustin Johnson fired a 67 to open and just played immaculately that round just couldn’t make enough birdie putts to go through but it was an easy 67 but his worst round of the week was a 71 he just had the highest floor and that’s what you’re looking for this week you’re looking for the players with the highest floors possible lee Westwood was playing great until Sunday and then he shot an 80 and took himself well out of contention last year albeit at a different course you’ll see that Rory shot a 65 tied with Patrick Kentlay for first round leader ludvig was one shot back at 66 and just thinking about how the odds have worked at the US Open over the years bryson won last year as a 20 to1 on the odds board windham Clark was 100 to1 at LA Country Club but now we’re back into the more classical designs la Country Club not a classical design not a classical US Open core so that shockingly was not that much of an outlier for that year that that kind of makes a lot of sense but you see 20 to1 winning matt Fitzpatrick wins at 30 to1 in 2022 who was the best he was playing another old style course dustin won this event at 12 to1 in 2016 rahm won as the second favorite on the board in 2021 as well at Tory Pine so it’s been a lot of chalk at the lot at the top of the board and we reflect a little bit more on what we saw what we’re going to see in terms of the stats and who’s playing well coming in the top three guys at the top of the betting board are the ones that are going to pop up most often unsurprisingly it’s where we can mine value elsewhere that’s going to be important but before we figure out what’s going to go in to that research we got to talk to guys that are either playing in this tournament have played in a tournament at this course or a PGA professional that goes to the course every week and gets a sense of what’s going on behind the scenes that’s all coming up andrew Novak first right after this i was having some problems sleeping when anyone has little kids that’s probably going to be the case they’ll come up wake you up in the middle of the night for no real apparent reason so you’re waking up you’re going back to sleep you’re going get up going back to sleep it’s not the best sleep i I put my 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can go to helixleep.com/mo for 20% off sitewide that’s helixleep.com/mo for 20% off sitewide be sure to enter my name at the checkout so they know that I sent you helixleep.com/mo i want you to think about two things one what makes your father special number two what makes all fathers the same the answer to number two is that they are impossible to buy Father’s Day gifts for who knows what your dad needs but I can tell you one thing that the vast majority almost all of fathers enjoy steak barbecuing it’s perfect when it comes to Father’s Day some things never change a recent survey shows 75% of Americans agree there’s no better way to spend Father’s Day than grilling with the family so shop omahastakess.com and give your dad the legendary Heartland quality he deserves plus my listeners get an extra $35 off with promo code Mayo at checkout omaha Stakes has been America’s original butcher since 1917 a family-owned company with over 100 years of expertise in the meat industry they also 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a specific strategy at a US Open that you have to consider because I I was thinking about just even watching Memorial over the weekend and there was a couple shots where Scotty just he was in the rough he was buried and there was even one where he I think he was like 212 or something away i think the wind was gusting up on the Saturday and I forget what hole it was but the pin was on the left and there was just a shorter corridor to get over the water onto the right i think it was actually the par five on the back he’s just like “Nah I’m just going to put it to 45 ft in two putt.” Like it doesn’t feel like there’s enough guys out there that I mean at Memorial it’s one thing to do you kind of have to do it at the US Open a lot of the time even going back and watching what Dustin did in 2016 that was his entire game plan it’s like I’m going to hit it to 45 ft in two pot maybe I’ll make one yep i mean if you par every hole at Oakmont for 72 holes like it is almost guaranteed you will win like I just based on the fact Dustin Dustin won it what three under well he had the penalty whatever well we don’t know if that was a real whatever he was he was only assessed after he had enough strokes to to have it he was like he finished like under par though i’m pretty I’m pretty sure like I should watch the Saturday lowry shot seven under on Saturday the people at Oakmont do not want underpar winning they they’re going to make sure that overpar is winning this open uh pars are fantastic i don’t care what hole it is out there pars are fantastic at Oakmont um after playing Memorial I’m guessing the rough will be somehow worse than that which that might have been the other US Open I played was uh at Brookline and I would have said the rough at Memorial this week was probably worse than what we saw at Brookline i’m guessing Oakmont will be worse than that so just don’t ever hit a bad shot for 72 holes because you’ll probably not enjoy the rest of the hole after that you You much rather be in the bunker wouldn’t you oh for sure for sure and but that goes for I mean like Tory Pines that like that’s true i mean it’s Yeah it places where the rough is that bad as long as the bunker lips aren’t horrible the thing with Oakmont is that they have thought about that they know what they’re doing with the bunkers you have church pews you have steep faces you have a lot of like kind of smaller bunkers or sectioned off bunkers like you’re not going to just fall in a bunker and have 30 yards to a lip so you can just hit up clean typically typically there’s some added element like okay you’re going to have to think about a lip here you’re going to have a funny stance you’re going to have something like they they don’t ever want you to really get away with one at Memorial this week like when you got it into the rough what was the hack it out versus you could actually hit your ball like ratio because I remember last year at Pinehurst I think it was Scotty who said it like when it go and I played it earlier this year it was like when it goes into that wire grass like a lot of the time it’s fine sometimes you’re absolutely [ __ ] and like how is the rough going to play like are you going to have although the rough might be long obviously if it’s not sitting down all the way you can probably still get it it’s not I’m probably not the right guy to ask for more i just I was chopping every time but then I’d go like watch coverage and like I’d be watching Ben or Scotty and it just be like hitting on the green and I’m like what are they doing to these golf balls to like have lies where I mean I was like struggling to advance at 100 yards a few times i mean I had I had one I laid up on Thursday on 11 and I was two feet left of the first cut i had 90 yards to the pin for my third shot it’s part five i missed fairway on my layup and I didn’t feel super confident about it but I’m 90 yards away so I’m like “Oh I’ll you know I’m going to give it a rip i’m going to try and get it on the green i’m 90 yards.” It dribbled into the water hazard which is what 15 20 yards short of the green i mean full swing wedge it went 50 yards maybe i mean it the rough was insane at Memorial this week obviously the rain didn’t help either um made it that much worse but I I almost never had just clean oh you can hit this maybe I I would have said like 7525 like 75 just chopping find it hard to believe somebody’s going to fake it around Oakmont and win one so it’s going to be some good golfers at the top of that leaderboard i was looking at the the 2016 leaderboard it really struck me as strange some of the name like thinking about US Opens and like looking at this list of names and just kind of like side eyeing it for a second because Dustin led the field in driving distance and basically accuracy too it’s why he ended up winning he didn’t even put particularly well that week but of the guys who mashed the ball the most distance-wise off the tea most of them ended up near the top of the leaderboard where most weeks that’s going to be the case especially at US Opens that’s going to be the case but then you had like Jim Furick and Zack Johnson so the emphasis on accuracy was there too even from the shorter hitters but if you had to pick one skill this week would it be hit the ball the far farthest in the field or hit every fairway i still think you’re going to gain more of advantage from hitting every fairway um I think I think course conditions like change things so like last time they played Oakmont scores were super low first couple rounds because it rained a ton like I don’t even remember if they started on time like they had really bad rain they were like behind schedule they were finishing Thursday’s round on Friday uh Friday’s round on Saturday like it was the whole thing got super messed up because there was a ton of rain which softened up the course a lot uh that also kind of leads in like it makes it a little easier for the bombers because the rough gets a little bit worse when it rains so if you have only an eight iron into a hole or a nine iron into the hole from the rough versus a six or a five iron that makes a huge difference um you had a guy I think Andrew Landry was up there through two rounds he was like leading it but I mean I think he was just going like full blackout with the putter but if we get a firm and fast week I think that opens it up a little bit more for the field at Oakmont just because it won’t play as long so if you’re in the rough potentially you know say I have like a seven iron out of the rough or an eight iron versus a five iron like that that could be the difference of getting it to the front edge and having an easier up and down versus just taking a wedge and chopping it down the fairway bringing in Keith Stewart from Read the Line you’re becoming a mainstay on these major preview shows that I do because you’ve been to all these places and you you’re a pro so we got to get your insight on all of this you you’re joining a collection of people today we got we got a little bit of Andrew Novak on the show some Alex Blickl two guys who have played the course alex actually played it as the Pennsylvania Open the year before in 2015 before it was at the US Open but do you think it’s weird that this is going to be a tournament that we all enjoy to watch because we all expect carnage how hard it’s going to be not a super fun tournament to talk about going into it is it you know that that’s a great first question because to be quite honest that there’s not going to be a lot to talk about until these leaderboards start to break the fact of the matter is is that this is like a perfect marriage between the USGA and the membership at Oakmont when you think about it no other golf course has hosted this event you know the national championship 10 times and I I think there’s a reason for that i I think that uh whether you were Alex and you played in the state open or Andrew Novak or the day that I showed up like over a decade ago it it just I mean it’s like they’re ready to play the US Open every single day um it should be a lot of fun to watch but at the same time I I don’t know I don’t know how much you can say about this facility until we actually get there do you think this is going to be a betting situation where you look at eight guys and you’re like “Hey you have Scotty you got Rory and Bryson after him and then maybe five other guys have a chance to win this.” Or do you think this is a tournament in particular where someone from that mid-tier pack can put it all together and get the right breaks throughout the week that they can win this i I I think we’re going to get exactly what we got at Quail Hollow which is on the first two days everyone’s going to freak out that the leaderboard is all over the place uh and that’s because the golf course is going to play super super hard so guys are going to get some breaks some guys are going to make over 100 feet of putts per day and you know they will jump up the leaderboard and everyone’s going to be so congested but then over the course of the first 54 holes you’re just going to see people start to fall off and then you’re going to see the big three you’re going to see Rory Bryson and Scotty and then maybe some semblance of one other guy i mean you said eight i I really think there’s only like three and a half four names that really that really have proven in any way shape or form over the last six months that they should be even be considered to like contend against Rory and Scotty who are definitely at a you know a league of their own right now well let’s think about who those guys might be i It wouldn’t shock me to see Xander compete with these guys i don’t think that he’s on their level right now especially coming having come back from injury but we’ve seen enough pieces of his game where the driving’s been great and then the rest of his game sucks or he’s the best iron player in the field and he can’t drive it that day the putter was awful but then the putter started to come back and the touch has come back around the green that if he was to magically put it together over these four days and he’s been a tremendous US Open player over the past decade regardless of where the venue is that wouldn’t surprise me was he the name that you were thinking about because I throw Rahm into that mix i throw Morawa into that mix i don’t think that he’s playing up to his regular self over the past month or so but he does possess outside of Scotty the one skill set that I’m It’s not that I’m leaning more towards accuracy over distance but some combination of the two that if you are a particularly accurate player I do think that can save you a lot of headaches well the two names I was thinking at for four were either Rom or Xander so we’re in lock step on that the I mean what a It’s this is going to sound harsh but like you know to quote Jack I mean I guess Colin’s just a nice player Pat right i mean at the end of the day um I mean Seph Straa’s played better than him i I I’ve bet I’ve bet Sea to win this tournament at 80 to1 i don’t think you’re Cool Bet still has that number right now shout out to our friends at Cool Bet they’re they have awesome giveaways nice deposit bonuses if you play if you live in Canada outside of Ontario hit the description go get your cash maybe win one of these free trips definitely worth it and Seb Straa is still 80 to1 up there right now but he is a player that in a perfect world everything goes right for him i do think that he has the proper skill set to contend lowry I think has the proper skill set to contend too i mean Shane was there i mean he had a what three or four shot lead going into the final round which you know was a quick turn on Sunday back in 2016 because of the weather and everything but Shane had the lead um he’s one of the few players i think there’s 32 guys that played in 16 that are going to play in this edition of it so not a lot of crossover mostly just the big names like Aory or Shane or somebody like that but uh I mean I’m not I guess DJ’s the defending venue champion but I’m not sure DJ’s really up to the challenge but um I mean that kind of goes along with the like the whole narrative of this is that Bryson prepares like no other player on live for these events and it’s proven that now he’s showing up in majors and maybe the extra time that he has week to week that he’s not playing in you know these events all over the world that he just breaks down the golf course like nobody else and then he works on exactly what he needs to do in order to you know excel on whatever the venue or the host venue is and you know Scotty’s the same way i mean those two manage a golf course like Tiger used to manage a golf course you know back in the day when we would see you know Tiger prepare for a major championship down at Worth you know the extensive nature with which he would do things was just unbelievable and he would hit situational shots as almost like instead of Butch Harmon like Bill Bichc was his golf coach like do your job right and I’ll never forget he used to hit these rope hook 3-woods all the time uh on the range and he would set up like cones out on the range where he would then hit these 3-woods and I was so finally one day I had the opportunity where the timing worked out i’m like what are you doing like hitting this shot because it makes no sense and he was like “Hey I know you’ve probably never been on the T- box at 13 at Augusta but like you can imagine we’ve measured it out this is what it looks like.” He goes “And I’m going to need this 3-wood.” And you know sure enough he’s used it a couple times i mean he used it in 2001 to beat Phil in the final round when they were in the final pairing and then he won the you know the Tiger Slam so like I I think that Bryson and Scotty their ability to course manage is so far superior over everyone else it just kind of puts them in a league of their own um talent-wise Rory’s up there with them it’ll be interesting to see how Canada plays out because um I mean you gave this great saliloquy as to like the evolution of the RBC Canadian Open and how Rory kind of saved the event and I think it’s very interesting that him still going up there the week before Oakmont and after the career grand slam i mean we know Rory’s won a bunch of events the week before he goes into a major similar to Wells Fargo last year before you know Valhalla it’ll be interesting to see how Rory goes but those other two guys the way they manage a golf course is so really interesting to me like as a PJ professional and like a coach and playability and and like the way they analyze a golf course and it’s exactly what Tiger used to do back in the day they’re just so situational and it’s so successful well Bryson’s prep I saw him at the White House earlier this week and that didn’t look like five and a half inch rough in the backyard of the White House no um you know I I mean everybody loves the show you know i mean Bryson is golf’s um maybe second to you Pat golf’s greatest marketer you know like I mean at the end of the day the guy is incredible um for what he’s done for the game and his image and everything else but don’t fool yourself um whether he’s on billboards or at the White House or whatever he’s doing he loves to compete he is like Scotty like those guys can’t turn they can’t turn it off like a Michael Jordan or something you know like Tiger they just can’t if they were having a free throw contest they would be as competitive as they could whether they were good at it or not um he is being competitive in everything that he’s doing especially because he puts himself under under such a microscope day in and day out i mean when Scotty goes and practices he goes and he talks about how he separates from his personal life and he gets into golf life and then like he’s able to concentrate and be mindful of what he’s doing like but he does that quietly i mean like Bryson is constantly under the microscope and that level of I guess critical analysis 247 whether it’s YouTube or whether it’s live or whether it’s the next major championship I think has done good things for Bryson his performance I I I think that the lap schedule has done a ton for Bryson but I disagree that he’s under the microscope all the time I think that social media wise public perception wise you’re right but he controls all of that Now leaving the PGA Tour was the best thing that he ever did because the more we ever saw of Bryson the more people hated his guts this is true this is true but don’t kid yourself he is doing things you know where he shows up on videos where he is constantly testing himself whether it’s break 50 with who cares right um he he puts himself under the gun to hit good shots those aren’t multiple takes that’s him hitting those shots under the gun and I think that it’s making him more comfortable with his own game and he’s the one that I want to bet this week i I I keep coming back to it i I believe I’ll ask Blickl a little bit later on i I shockingly enough I’ve already recorded that portion of it you know when you you double up when you have guests on earlier in the week you get their thoughts on things especially because he had played the course before in a competitive setting but I want a reason to bet on Bre i’m so afraid of Scotty but I’ve been afraid of Scotty at each of the past five US Opens spoiler alert he didn’t win any of them yeah what’s different about this version of Scotty going into the US Open where last year different than last year’s version when he had six wins by this point or whatever it was i guess the difference is that when I got to Pinehurst last year instantly I was like we have to fade Scotty this week because this is going to be a putting contest every single person is going to have to hit to the same part of every green and this wire grass isn’t nearly as bad as everyone says it is so people are going to be able to miss fairways allah Rory Allah Bryson Allah Kentley Levig Pavone all those guys that were in contention last year they were missing fairways and they were still all hitting to the same part of the green and then it became a putting contest which we knew at that time was certainly you know Scotty’s weakest strokes gain category um this version of Scotty the iron game is even better and I think there are going to be scoring opportunities at Oakmont if you can control your superpower if you’re Scotty and you can continue to hit it pin high all the time and he what he’s I think top 25 top 27 in strokes game putting on the tour which is you know astronomically better for him than it has been over a large portion of this this extended run now so um for those reasons and and a bunch others uh I mean Jack’s place is only 200 miles west i mean the aronomy everything there um you know I think Jack took it on as a personal challenge at the memorial to put out something that was like comparable to Oakmont now it it’s not fair to compare them but the fact of the matter is that the field looked like they did especially over the weekend when they all backed up and Scotty continued to go forward and plot and that may that may have been more helpful to Scotty than anything else um I think what’s most interesting about this three guys below 10 to1 is that to me immediately it’s like well I don’t want to bet any of those guys pre-ournament that goes against all the things that we always all talk about we all believe in and then it’s like could this be the week where we get a grand shift towards more people paying attention to live betting which I know you love to do and I love to do and then we can really watch markets and then you know golf betting content can kind of like take that next level step because that to me would be something that would be signature about this Oakmont experience because right now I mean at least until I get on property there’s there’s not an awful lot to talk about from a betting perspective at the top of the board well I I think for me I can still grab an 11 on Bryson right now shout out Kbat once again and I can probably get that boosted up as the official PME boost if that’s what I ended up going with on Monday and get that like 13 to1 potentially i think at 10 to one he’s got to be the guy i think he has the best chance of running down Scotty and he’s going to be quadruple the odds i don’t think that Scotty has a four times chance better of beating Bryson this week bryson I guess it boils down to this yes Scotty is by far the best player in the world it’s not even close at this point is he four times better than Bryson to win a tournament i don’t think that’s probably the case but this course in particular and this is where I really want to get your insight to it of all of those top guys the guy that is going to keep the ball likely enough in the short grass the most often is going to be Sheffller obviously he doesn’t have the power of Rory or Bryson but he has plus distance and plus accuracy which is not something you can say for most of the world’s top players they just have go distance and they’re kind of accurate more so when they want to be but Blickl again brought this up that and I watched it when I watched Dustin win dustin didn’t have very many misses that were slightly off the fairway now he drove the ball incredibly all week he probably should have won that tournament by 20 strokes how well he played compared to everyone else TD Green but when he missed he missed big and when you miss big it wasn’t as bad well true because the footprint there you know every hole is on top of one another other than the seven that you go um across the Pennsylvania Turnpike and then you know you play those but even those are are next to one another so um as you start to put hundreds of thousands of people through the turn styles there and they’re walking around yes they can rope off areas that are 15 to 20 yards off the the edge of the fairway but then past that if you were a Bryson or a Rory and you hit it off the planet but you hit it 340 um then certainly you know you’re going to be out in some trampled areas and you could get some luck what what’s interesting to me about this particular venue and probably the thing I’m going to pay attention to the most is that you look at the leaderboards and it’s I certainly the the longest guys of each kind of era we’ll call it right without to go too Taylor Swift on you but of every era right 9407 16 or whatever you know you had Cabrera you had DJ you had L’s I mean these are the long guys these are the guys that end up winning right but these top 10 are like scattered with guys like like David Tom and but but this is why the accuracy thing it keeps coming back to me like why can’t Aaron Ry come sixth here oh he could he he very well well he couldn’t because he’s not a good enough putter i mean I think you really need to be a very good putter here i think Burger Cory Connors Mike Connors can’t putt either but three guys that really can’t putt i don’t know well I mean yes putting is obviously going to be important because you’re going to have knee- knocking sevenfooters the entire week but so much of the US Open historically especially at Oakmont is hit the ball to 30 ft and two putt be on your way and the guys that can do that the most often are going to be the guys that are there in the end and the the path of least resistance to do that is hit it down the middle of the fairway hit your mid iron your sixiron to 30 35 ft and just don’t blows by yeah i mean could J could Jacob Bridgeman be our first round leader you know he played there in the 21 amter made match play won a couple matches guys top 10 on the PGA Tour probably top five in this field um for strokes game putting could he be the guy sure and there’s going to be guys like that but overall I still think at the length that this golf course is and the length of the rough um I look at Tory I look at Wingfoot I look at last year I just the US up and the the US up yeah the US Open strike that the US Open has just become such a bombers’s paradise um it’s very interesting i mean these guys contend don’t get me wrong you know we are going to see the Jim Furicks of the world but at the end of the day I think if you’re if we’re having a conversation about who’s going to win it’s going to be somebody who has some high level of ball speed and and I will put Scotty in that category because he drives it around 300 yards it’s going to be somebody who has some high level of ball speed because the rough and it looks like you know the for the early forecast is that it’s it’s been wet there it’s going to be wet there the weekend before it’s going to be wet on Monday and Tuesday i’ll get I’ll get there first thing Monday morning um it’s going to be wet Monday and Tuesday so it’ll be interesting to see how much they can dry out now the green surfaces will be perfect they will be absolutely perfect they were roll faster than anyone has ever experienced complaining in their competitive life unless they’ve played there before like Alex or somebody else or they were there in 16 so that won’t be as much of an issue but it but I don’t know man it’s it’s tough for me to get away from the speed thing well so does that mean like Minwoo the Hoyards like these need to be targets for you if not necessarily to bet outright but one of those three guys ends up becoming super competitive because of the ball speed absolutely 100% i I think at the end of the day when you look at the top 20 there’s going to be 10 guys with ball speed and there’s going to be 10 of your practitioners that you’re talking about 10 of your chess players and so well let’s try to focus on those guys to see if we can sus them out because the name I keep coming back to a guy that does well at US Opens has played well at long courses even with thicker rough you brought up Tory obviously it’s not going to be the same sort of situation although it’s funny that I I brought up earlier that if you can have the big miss maybe it’s not as big of a deal and that’s kind of why I like Bryson especially the big left miss seems to be so much better than the big right miss at this place but Harris English shows up at these types of venues yeah I don’t think Harris English misses it a lot either um great putter yeah I mean I I think everyone should pay attention to Harris English i think Harris English has Beth Paige on his mind too a lot of these guys are very focused on something that you know they need a carrot because you know a guy like Harris English he’s been around over a decade he’s just kind of like cruising along and when he’s playing average it’s like okay so why do I need today to like I have my card for next year like why do I need to go out today and grind and it looks like you know Harris has obviously been grinding you won it Tory that’s a great comp for this as far as what the rough what the landing areas um what the situation is going to be like you know people are going to get thrown off by the fact that these greens they’re going to read the you know the golf course superintendent report and it’s going to say “Oh you know the greens are 8,000 square feet.” Yeah but these things like the edges melt off like a Dolly Clock painting you know like it’s they added 24,000 square feet Gil did when he did the most recent renovation so they could they could have a couple more cup placements that’s going to make the Greens harder the fact that they’re bigger because now they’re going to be more sectional at a place like this that is so classically designed so you know at the end of the day I I feel like you know don’t get thrown off by things like that i I think that Harris is a nice blend of power and control um and the fact that he is completely driven right now as I know from his camp that he wants to be at Beth Paige and he thinks he should be and he’s playing at that level and he’s driven like that i think he’s I think he’s a great pull from further down the board and I think that all the data darlings that love your rise and your Henley’s and those guys those guys are going to show up too i mean they’re going to be a part of that group um and I would even put like Se in that group se’s not necessarily a power player um he puts the ball in play all the time um Fairway Jesus is another one shane Lowry is another one and Shane’s like second on tour in Ta Green strokes game TA Green um he keeps the ball in play those guys those are the 10 guys I’m talking about that are like your chess players versus your your checkers guys who are like just blasted to the end of the board and king me like Bryson so I have the ball speeds pulled up right here bryson’s number one i don’t know if Marco Pang from England actually got into this field but he’s he would be number two minward Hoygard Hoygard don’t believe Burmese is in i don’t think he qualified neman is up there then Ramen Rory Woodland Windham Hego Jake Knap Cam Young Xander Ryan Fox is Thor Bjornson in i don’t believe he is no did he no he did i I know that off the top of my head because I was looking at the guys that played in the 21 AM which he did and he did fairly well at and he did not qualify yeah I had the list pulled up that’s a part of this intro it’s like Bridgemond and Highmith which is hilarious because I just always get them confused as the same person that they might actually be the same person now you should try betting the LPGA and getting confused it’s pretty Well at least they have like the number six next to their name so you can distinguish them from number three they don’t when they’re walking down the range Pat you know they don’t wear it on like on their hat or something a big six i could use it trust me I can tell you you know uh the standard beer the standard bearer is very valuable on the LPGA tour but those would be like the the big ones like Brooks is still up there ludvig Pendr and I’m now I’m starting to think not so much from an outright winner perspective i’m starting to think of a daily fantasy perspective like who can we populate the rest of our teams with and I would guess that the default position would be the guys that I just rattled off who aren’t roaring like obviously the big guys but then when you go to the next level the Minwan basically what’s with ball speed training in Denmark is this like a thing that they do from age four that they all just hit the ball a mile now i don’t know i mean I when you were reading that list off I was thinking to myself man if I was the Hogard’s next neighbor next door neighbor like growing up I would I wouldn’t want to be there right you know or I guess they were practicing in the garage or something speed training god only knows but uh that that must have been um that must have been an active backyard when they were kids i don’t God knows what they were doing so then you start to think about the chess players we rattled off a bunch of them like Tommy Shane a lot of the Euros frankly like even someone like Justin Rose I don’t know if he has the wherewithal to hit as many fairways as he used to be able to but again as a firstround leader type guy obviously we know he can putt and I was trying to figure out where like when I started to see some of the names that were up there especially early on last time and as you made mention there was a ton of weather like Dustin didn’t end up teeing off in his first round until Friday and then he played I think it was 32 holes on Friday before he came back and finished on Saturday morning but when you looked at the top of that leaderboard it was feisty euros and guys that dominated Riviera feisty Euros and guys that like the first two-day leaderboard i mean Andrew Landry aside because he made every single putt possible it was Bubba and it was Bubba Sergio and Dustin all guys with tremendous track records at Riviera then you had Westwood was up there yep i think it was GMAC who hung on for a little bit that other style of play basically the and Shane No Shane Lowry was the other guy the Shane Lowry style of which is Shane Lowry is weirdly enough Shane Lowry has now become kind of the worst version of Seb Straa the way that you like he’s going to put it in play and he’s going to hit his irons really well except Straa can actually make a putt or two from time to time yeah Shane uh you know I went with Shane at Memorial and like man it’s like all weekend backup noise when the delivery truck comes to your house it was unbel I mean it was so bad and the putter it was awful um but but weirdly when when you take a look at it the guys that although the truest didn’t end up playing as potentially as difficult as it would have later on in the year if stuff had firmed out and obviously it was very wet at the cricket club and you were there and we talked about it that week uh I believe or the week after when you were there but a lot of the guys that did well at the cricket club I could see doing well here too so um you’d want to jump on JT as one of these mid-level guys but he’s not even The thing is he’s not going to be priced as a mid-level guy he’s going to be priced as a favorite which then I have less interest so so that like when we have two different discussions when we get to the DFS you know like WY and I do this all the time on Tuesdays we talk about you know optimal lineups and it’s just amazing to me how the value of a guy like a really good player with high upside in the 7K range versus a guy in the 9Ks that has to earn it um just hasn’t panned out all year like there were averaging like three and a half players at 7K and below and yes Scotty goes optimal most weeks nowadays but he wasn’t when he first came back from the ravioli injury and it it’s just interesting to me that like when I look at this field there’s going to be a ton of what we’re calling chess players down in that 7K and 6K range and maybe even down in the fives i assume that Scotty’s going to be the highest number that he’s ever been because they can’t outpric him so they’re they’re going to have to include 5Ks and then you know I I just I just don’t see anyone that strikes fear into anyone um up there that’s going to be the 9K because like Fleetwood Lowry Morawa Canley Havlin they’re all going to be like your 9K and high 8K guys and then we’re going to have down there in the 7K land your Novak and your Sephraas and those guys it’s just I don’t know i It’s It’s I don’t I don’t think you should ever look and think about things from an optimal setting because no one’s ever going to actually get the optimal people are going to be 75 points off the there’s just going to be players who fit in there that there would be no basis to actually take them no it’s it’s more of a value type of But I I understand that but if you can mine similar value from someone who like someone like we’ll see how he plays in Canada and I think that he’s in the field next week maybe he’s not maybe he didn’t end up qualifying but an Alex Smallley level player where we’ve seen him show up he showed up at the players and like he’ll randomly show up at some of these bigger events and he has that accuracy yet overall T Green skill set not necessarily the distance but you’re talking about the value type of player he’s sort of like the lesser version of Burger right now who depending on who you talk to Burger is either the most underrated or overrated player on tour yeah I mean I understand what you’re saying and Smally’s not in the field he didn’t qualify but um yeah sorry but uh I mean I guess it comes back to like the devil you know or the devil you don’t know i mean how is this golf course going to play right the number one thing you’re going to be able to do is you need to be able to break it down from a course management point of view because you’ve got holes like two and four and nine and 12 and 15 where they have these like random cross bunkers all over the place i mean there’s 170 something bunkers on this golf course right there’s no there’s no water hazards so why do people shoot over par right well there’s there’s very difficult rough there’s there’s no trees and then there’s bunkers everywhere and the the Greens are um you could argue that they’re they’re too crazy or they’re not crazy enough i I mean I I don’t know i mean I walking away from that experience that day was kind of like you know just really you you really just you just kind of like shake your head and you go like what just happened to me right like uh you’re just you’re just so challenged on every single play and that’s what it’s going to come down to it’s like who has the best strokes gained like mentality to just keep it all together and be patient right like I I feel like a guy like a Russell Henley acts like that from time to time i feel like a guy like a a Patrick Kentley acts like that from time to time certainly the guys at the top those are all givens right but like let’s try to brainstorm some more names i like this path that we’re going down i would throw Corey Connors into that mix uh yeah that’s a great one that’s a really good one yes because I I I think statistically the anti-profile that we’ve described high accuracy great irons great short game maybe can do something with the putter seiwoo is the ultimate answer to this but as you kind of point out not necessarily a chess player seeu yeah well yeah yeah see doesn’t have the patience factor but certainly the way he hits fairways i mean the guy is a stripe show i mean he lines the highway um but and he has an incredible short game the putter is what it is people are going to have their moments with the putter here whether they’re a good putter or not that they that we’re going to see a lot of you know four putts and all sorts of highlights or low lightss whatever you want to consider them or their social media is going to be filled with like guys missing two foot putts and stuff it’s just that’s a factor of what happens when you play here the greens are so severe and they are so fast it is literally like dropping a golf ball on a slope driveway right like how do you make the ball stop and I mean the fringe will do it but that’s about it so I like the I like the Connor’s the Connors Furick that level of player I think is really where you’re going to make your meat and potatoes lineups or you’re going to make your money in your placements your matchups all of your live betting um any of the props that you want to play i think that that’s really your opportunity and then with the big three you just kind of monitor the live market you know um I mean there was a point over the weekend at Memorial where you know before Scotty went on that run Saturday afternoon where you know he had some decent value on the outright board you know more than double of where he was with to start the week and you had what like 27 holes left to play so I mean those are the things that you really have to pay attention to and when you see live content you know covering the golf betting that week I mean that’s really what I’d pay attention to but I I love the Connor’s um kind of arctype player i I’m just trying to think of what other players fit into that mold tommy kind of does yeah Tommy for sure tommy would be one because because I was thinking Bobby Mack as well because he’s he’s not as accurate as maybe some of those guys but generally speaking he is his iron play I think is very underrated right now great around the greens and I I worry about like but it comes back to I worry about his lack of distance but even if it’s a little bit wetter on Thursday it looks like it’s going to dry out over the weekend i feel like he plays really well in super dry conditions it’s weird like being from Scotland but when you start playing link style courses it’s not like those courses get baked out they just are how they are even if they’re when they’re wet they’re exactly the same that his his ball flight his style of play if he can keep it in the fairway his lack of distance I don’t think is going to be that big of a deal because his ball will roll out more than most yeah i mean you would know this because up where you live now up there on the east coast of Canada I mean you get a lot of links like type turf conditions and that’s what they play in Scotland so even it does rain a lot um you know the lomy nature of the soil everything just kind of like the water just kind of permeates through it really quick that it dries out because it tends to be windy in those places too um I don’t see a lot of wind coming next week i really hope that we can get some somewhat firm conditions you know it rained the whole time during 16 and what there was like three or four guys left under par the rest of the time you know the other two championships the guys were overpar um I think you know people will dis be disappointed if it’s too soft because um they won’t get to see all of the carnage that they want to see especially starting with the the people that are watching for that that are members of Oakmont to begin with but again going back to the playability of this of this golf course I I like the I like once you get outside the big three and you have to if you want to pick one of those to win by all means go do that i think you’re really looking for that Cory Connor type of player you know the type of guy that is an average putter but Tita Green he is just so solid and you look at those leaderboards as you go back through time you know that’s your Shane Lowry that’s the same type of player um that’s the Tommy that is probably like your Terrell Hatton it’s like it’s like half the European Rder Cup team which is why they’re going to kill us at Beth Page but um that’s neither here nor there uh you could get you could get Keegan in that model right is Keegan patient enough to be because I I was looking at his Tita Green ter Green is just absolutely stunning over the past three months and he makes perfect sense he’s someone that I did want to target but do you think that he possesses that patience not to get too aggressive because it does feel like the moment you get too aggressive here double bogey triple bogeies are in play oh yeah you’re going to you’re going to take the shaft hard if you if you go after this place aggress like too aggressively i I think that Keegan at his age now and with all the responsibility he has as Ryder Cup captain is a different Keegan than he was 5 years ago i I think that Keegan is a fine play i I think through the middle of the board I think Keegan’s a fine play let’s try to figure this out so should I bet Bryson I guess is my question i I I just really want to so I probably will regardless but the path for him is there to beat Scotty right yes and what’s the path to Scotty not winning is it he shows up with his B minus game comes in fourth and someone else brings their AMA that week um because don’t don’t be surprised because you mentioned it you’re going to see a lot of guys miss two-footers even though Sheff’s putting is much better than it was a year ago still not afraid to miss a few two-footers yeah I would say there’s two things that that worry me about Sheffller and you know everyone’s calling him Mr are inevitable right now and everything but like that that has a lot to do with the fact that he’s in people’s heads or guys like Xander are just struggling with certain parts of their game that they weren’t struggling with last year i I think that there’s two things that would bother me about Sheffller number one if he starts getting that left miss again with the driver and then he constantly has to save par the weakest part of his main strokes gained characteristics this year has been the short game now don’t get me wrong it’s still very very good but the putting has kind of taken over as the third best thing so it’s his approach game that is off the tea i mean he’s number one and off the tea i mean I’m saying that he’d have a problem but um he you know like if he gets the long left miss because he’s chasing a little length when he sees if he gets paired with Bryson or something like on Saturday um that could be an issue and then the short game could be an issue i I don’t foresee I think he and Kenyon are they’re in a pretty good place right now and he’s confident with his putting and obviously the iron game is like otherworldly you know it’s like Tiger back in the day like what I used to watch on the range it’s just like an absolute like it’s just a pleasure to behold you know it’s just like one of my favorite things to watch is when Sheffller’s just hitting shot after shot with Randy at a major and you’re just standing on the range and you’re like “Man look how good that is.” You know it’s so tight it’s so precise it It’s pin high every time right like that’s the one thing like when when you want to determine if someone’s a really good ball striker they hit they hit it pin high every time not everyone can hit it dead straight right because the ball curves it’s a curve face a curve swing and a curve ball right but like they hit it pin high which means they they compress the ball the same way every single time and Sheffller is so good at that tiger was so good at that you know the greatest player the greatest ball strikers Nick Price those types of guys Faldo all of them they all hit it pin high and you know like I I would say it’s the driver if the driver gets a little loose long and left and then if the short game is where it has been this year um then there’s definitely a chance for Aurori Bryson or somebody uh like a Rom to slide in there for sure because you know this this golf course we haven’t talked about him a lot but this golf course is going to fit John Rom very very well and he’s shown that he’s still probably the top four player in the world and you know I mean I think about last year at Trun when he made it through the bad wave and he finished top 10 in that tournament i mean that guy played exceptionally good and then we were all like all our brains were kind of rotted by the fact that he gave up like a 12stroke lead with eight holes to go at the Olympics but like you know he came back this year at the PGA and he had some fire back in him maybe Ram’s ready to get going again and he’s a he is your prototype prototype US Open player puts the ball in play with a lot of power um and can score and can chip and can chip and putt yeah 100% and played here as an amateur in 2016 and came T23 sheffler despite being inside the top five after the first round ended up missing the cut at that US Open as an amateur himself yeah Rory missed the cut too um no guys are going to miss the cut not Not a bad week to build a to miss the cut parlay with names you are assured in thinking are going to make the cut yeah jt JT Xander Spith Spith Hideki there you go put those four together and play it to Miss the Cut parlay you know it it’d probably still be a negative number like we couldn’t even get a positive number on those four to Honest to God if you put those four players together in a two miss the cut parlay and the cut line being top 60 not to top 65 in ties and having the full field under these conditions i think it’s worth playing around Robin or two with those sorts of things if you put those four together I would estimate that it would be around like 50 to1 oh yeah no I mean especially because you dropped You did drop Xander in there right yeah but could I It’s not that I think that Xander is going to miss the cut but he leaves one of his skills absent so often over the course of the past three months that that will amplify this week if that ends up being the case like he’s not going to grind out a one under if he doesn’t have the driver going he’s going to be like 76 77 yeah i mean if you don’t get the driver going here par 70 and you know 7,400 yards man some of these guys Canada this week is a par 70 7,400 yards it’s actually 17 yards longer on the official scorecard than Oakmont is right yeah don’t don’t think it’s going to play quite as tough no no no but you know man they have some you know Canada this TPC Toronto Osprey Valley yada yada whatever north Course i mean they’ve got some serious par4s there i know they’re probably converted parfs for the public but man like the average par4 length there was 459 yards and that’s the same as it was at Quail Hollow and that’s I mean that’s a serious grown man’s golf course six of them over 480 at TPC Toronto that’s insane you know of course you know for somebody like Taylor Pend it’s like Driver 7 but that’s neither here nor there yeah well this show is coming out after the Canadian Open actually starts on Thursday but I I can’t remember a time when the I I don’t know anyone who hasn’t bet Taylor Pendra this week myself included i bet him too i did not um I I might put him in the Oakmont missed part missed cut parlay just for fun because uh I just feel like the guy um I think it was you I was talking to isn’t he’s from right near there right or maybe it was Wy because he’s Canadian too like well Pendrith is from clo like he’s played TPC Toronto probably more times than the rest of the field combined yeah but he’s from like Richmond Hill or something like that which is on the east side of Toronto and this place is like way west of Toronto am I right there like this isn’t like this isn’t close to Toronto it’s like an hour and a half outside the city yeah okay so whatever like it’s out where wherever it is right like Pender is the closest one like uh Mack was last year at Hamilton right he was like the the local boy right so Pender is the local boy this week i just feel like that’s a lot of pressure that’s a that’s a lot of pressure on that guy i think back to that weirdly enough I think with the Canadians Nick Taylor currently soaks up so like Connor and like Connor is like the player in Canada right now because he’s been good like not so good but very good for so long at this point that he’s been so consistent he’s been top of mind despite only having two wins and Taylor gets all the cred because I think he has five wins on tour and he won the Canadian Open by and large most of these Canadian golfers are not that well known that yeah at the course I think that Pend will have a lot of support but it’s not like the Canadian public you know if he gets up there people will absolutely go mental for it it’s like him and Rory in the final group people will love that if he can do it and I think that he has the right skill set for that course but I don’t think that there’s an overload of pressure on him because there is no one really local to this course well Ben Ben Silverman’s actually from Richmond Hill maybe that’s who you were thinking of jeff Fineberg’s neighbor oh wow is he really but Richmond Close is very close to where Fineberg lives wow don’t let the truth get in the way of a good Fineberg story you know yeah listen he he was the man of the people at the Jays game the other night people sent me like multiple pictures of him just interacting with the public well that’s what people want up there you know he’s a man of the people and uh you know I should get him you know an extra read the line workstation and have him come down next week to Oakmont and let him be a man of the people there you know I think Pennsylvania is going to show up big time um I I you know it’s been a while since Pittsburgh has had this level of golf tournament right obviously the 16 um version of this would been the last time and you know we have some really really good players that are in position um four of those guys at the top I’ll include Rahm are playing some quite good golf and I think they could all push one another there’s a good chance that over the weekend you get some sort of Scotty Rory Scotty Bryson Rory Bryson type pairing um so I you know I I just I want like there’s two themes to this interview number one like I got to get on property right like that’s that’s my favorite thing to do as a PJ professional is that I really want to look at what the golf course is playing like and what these guys are doing when they’re out on the golf course especially around the greens how challenging is it going to be around the greens cuz sometimes just because the rough is tall and everything doesn’t necessarily mean you know that around the green play is going to be that much of a factor so but these greens are crazy um I I I just want to see all that play out and then you know you want to see how how comfortable guys are body language will tell you a lot man you know like every time I see Max Home on the range he looks like he’s just looking for a hole to go crawl in and when I see Scotty he’s walking around like his pants are unzipped so it’s like it’s these two different like like those are the guys we’re looking for whether they’re at 7K or they’re at 13K or 14K whatever Scotty’s going to be so last two things pick to win and winning score i’m gonna pick Bryson to win at minus one i’m gonna go I’ll go Scotty and I will say that um two of the big three will finish underpar and uh it’s probably going to be our two boys and I’m going to go Scotty at four under how many guys do you think finish underpar because as Novak pointed out in the interview that preceded this one he would take even right now and he thinks that would win i think that less than five will finish under par and the only reason I’m saying that is that because it’s going to be wet not like wet like 16 but it’s going to be wet i I think that um I think there’s a bit of hyperbole that comes out through social media that it’s like oh my god i mean don’t get me wrong it’s going to be like a lot of carnage the the cut will probably be like six over but it’s top 60 in ties like these are 156 like really really good golfers that can manage themselves for two days like the cut will probably be like plus five plus six and then I think you’ll probably have three or two to four guys that finish underpar at which I think Scotty at three or four underpar wins keith Stewart from readtheline.com kj Stewart on X you’re saying you’re getting there on Monday morning i’ll be there Monday morning um you know certainly I want to um say you know tune in watch WY and I on the Golf Pro Betting Show on Tuesday afternoon at three o’clock um hold on hold on the Golf Pro Betting Show he’s not considering himself a Golf Pro now is he no he’s not okay no it’s just you not whatsoever he uh he he um No no in fact the name actually makes him very uncomfortable which is fun for me you know so he uh it it’s it’s the perfect um rapport between he and I because he loves hyperbole and I love actual facts so we go back and forth and he’s like and you know this Pat because you know him better than I know him but like he’s a really good DFS player right like you have Tambo on your team like these guys are like exceptionally good DFS players and you know my specialty is getting on site and figuring the place out which I will do on Monday and Tuesday and then we’ll talk about it so I would say you know these previews are are awesome and I love to get some of this stuff out that I get with you but at the same time um when we’re boots on the ground it does help as well and it we’re going to need all the help we get against these big three at single digits so keep up to date with Keith is up to at the course again you can follow him there and check out readtheline.com for those updates coming up now Alex Blickl from ftn.com to share his experience about the course from him playing in the 2015 Pennsylvania Open if you missed the chat with him on Wednesday he tried to qualify for the US Open made it to the Maryland qualifier and he talks through his experience on that but now we’re talking some Oakmont the Travelers Championship the Northeast one and only PGA Tour signature event can it surpass the excitement of last year’s thrilling finale when Scotty Sheffller broke away from the loaded leaderboard with three straight birdies in the back nine during the final round leading to a dramatic one-hole playoff with Ton Kim winning him his sixth PGA Tour victory of the year will Scotty repeat his champion come watch as the world’s best PGA Tour players try to dethrone him all of them competing all four days at TPC River Highlands the action begins June 19th and runs through June 22nd for tickets and information visit travelers championship.com to see the greats including Scotty Sheoffller Rory Moy Xander Schoffley Ludvig Oberg and the rest the Travelers Championship there is only one alex Blickl is here again can’t believe you were able to come on twice but to talk about Oakmont a course which you have played in a competitive setting we joked on the Wednesday DraftKing show for the Canadian Open that even is probably the winning score and I guess the only caveat to that would be if there’s a bunch of rain on Wednesday night and the course gets softened up honestly though I don’t think that would make it that much easier because it would just mean it’s playing even longer and it would just make the rough even thicker and harder to deal with it’s just going to be a nightmare for guys no matter what so where are you looking at skill setwise do you think because like I think US Open I’m just like Bryson’s a pretty good lock to come inside the top five if nothing else but with the way that you’ve now talked about it playing that having plus accuracy with distance might be like the ultimate cheat code for here that is there like we talked about the Canadian Open course that maybe it was just specifically designed for Rory Mroy this Oakmont just sounds like Sheffller is going to beat the pants off everybody it i mean the the two of them and Bryson I think you you were you talked a lot like for the for the Masters and and the PJ Championship that those three are just so much further ahead of everybody at the US Open they’re going to be even that much further ahead of everybody because of the way they drive the ball and yeah it’s the combination of distance and accuracy I think just has to be far and away like the most predictive thing because if you’re not driving the ball long and accurate it’s not like you’re just at a disadvantage you have no chance on some of these holes it It’s a monstrous golf course i had a really difficult time holding fairways there where Pat like I thought I was hitting some really good drives and they still found the rough and so I think another like very underrated part or underrated skill set will be the ability to shape the ball in both directions and there I think Rory and Scotty separate from Bryson because Bryce can pretty much only hit the draw off the tee but you’re going to have to work the ball into the slopes on the fairways otherwise they’re just going to bound through into the the deadly run so you say that but DJ didn’t really do much of that when he won in 2016 he just either hit it straight or he had his fade he he he really every time he tried to hit a draw he hooked it into the gallery yeah he he also hit a very spinny ball at times which can help uh so that I think the we have very much seen like a move away from spinny shots uh Tiger actually like he used to do this really well where he would purposely add spin to help hold fairways and he he talks even today like um I I know a lot of people really love watching YouTube golf like he he gave uh Grant Horvat a driving lesson and he talked about how yeah he loves to to hit a descending blow with the driver because it adds spin and helps a lot of drives hold their line and then hold the fairway once they land but we don’t see a lot of players doing that sort of thing anymore they’re optimizing carry distance which you want a high launch and low spin rate for so we don’t see it as often anymore but we know the guys who really can play all the different shot shapes and of course Scotty is in a tier of his own in that regard but we also see Rory work the ball ways off the tea with success do you think that someone like Corey Connors has outs here because of how accurate he can be his long iron play and there’s enough holes where it feels like you actually just don’t have to hit driver off the tea if you don’t want to which I do think not that he’s going to club down a ton but he can just simply hit his driver where the other guys have to club down to fivewood yeah it’s also going to be very dependent on the firmness of the fairways because if the fairways are firm it gets back to that idea we we talked about uh that last show where sometimes distance comes from hitting fairways and getting the 30 to 40 yard roll out and at Oakmont it might be a 50 to 60 yard roll out so Connor definitely hasn’t out that way but I I think more so Connor than like Russell Henley for example because Connor isn’t losing strokes with his distance he’s just not gaining henley is losing strokes with his distance boy it’s going to be tough for him when when he misses fairways he’s going to be hoping to get there in three on par fours not just two what do you think that the rough will do because we saw this at Memorial where Ash’s hacking out i talked to Andrew Novak about it that’s going to be on the show tomorrow about him hacking out from the rough he’s like I just couldn’t even get the club on the ball and then you see Scotty he just steps up and like oh he can air it out of there with a five iron somehow everyone else is literally chunking it out to get it back on the fairway and Scotty’s still taking dead aim is there a class of players and how do we identify them that a five and a half inch rough will somehow affect them less it’s a lot of it is the precision of contact like when when Scotty’s playing it well out of the rough he’s hitting it probably a groove lower than he usually does but he’s minimizing the time the club actually spends in the rough i struggled with this at at Woodmont yesterday i kept hitting the ball off the off the top of the club face and it would just come out so dead scotty’s so incredibly precise with his contact that’s what you have to look for and the best thing that you’re going to the best way to like just proxy that is who’s really good with their irons because you can’t be an outstanding iron player without making consistent contact so uh let me give you a list because everyone’s going to sort by driving distance so here you go here’s some good players for the US Open for you rory Bryson maybe Minu we’ll see rahm Xander maybe Rasmus Hoygard Ludvig Scotty maybe Windham Clark maybe Jake Nap Neman Pendreth Brooks these guys should all be like pretty decent plays by and large not that all of them are going to make the cut now let me sort this a different way let me ask you because we saw a bunch of accuracy guys as you mentioned because that ball was going to roll out a little bit more aaron Ry Sunj Morawa Connors Glover Burger Vic Perez Henley Straka Poston Seiwoo and then shockingly Sheffller is 12th in accuracy of all the players who are in this field but I bet Straka at 80 to1 and I think he’s going to be bet down to like 40 by the time it comes down he’s shown to be a guy who plays well at similar courses to Scotty straa’s round three at the memorial was one of the most impressive rounds of the entire season I think from anybody that was a a phenomenal performance uh just a total ball striking clinic i think it was like every fairway every green at least on the like high leverage holes he was just outstanding that day so I really like the struggle call i think all of those guys have a really good chance i I almost want to say at Oakmont I think accuracy might be even more important off the tea than distance because the rough is going to be so penalizing and then you might even get like an emphasis on wedge play because so many guys are going to be chipping out from the rough that a big deal is going to be not just like who can save par from from the fairway when you have to chip out but who can make sure that bogey is the worst score that you can make on the hole because we are going to see doubles and triples on that golf course do you think around the green means anything here with this sort of rough or do you just put club on ball and hope it rolls close it it’s definitely going to matter and I think one of the ways in which it’s going to matter is a lot of time when guys are chipping out they’re not going to be chipping out like just to 100 yards but they’re going to be saying “All right I’m going to put this 40 yards from the green up front and therefore you’re going to get a lot of tight lie chip shots instead of just the you’re buried in the rough.” And and guys will also by the way they will purposely aim for bunkers because the bunker is so much easier than the the crazy rough that we’ll see so bunker play and you know the ability to hit good short game shots out of tight lies will both matter so this is what we found when we did the simulator walk through with it when I played with my friend who’s a pro and he was trying to figure like we he walked through it’s almost like you and I did for the open championship that year when he was talking about the different shots obviously we can’t mimic the rough on a simulator of how that’s going to play but he’s like if I’m here and I know that I can’t get it here I’m actually going to aim at that left side of the green knowing that maybe it holds the green that would be great or it just rolls off into these bunkers in the back and I’m just I have a clean line in the bunker hopefully probably and a ton of green to work with coming back that that’s simply just an easier shot than getting caught up in the collar and it just flailing into the rough yeah agree completely and every single tour player like that’s even more true for because they are so good out of the bunkers they just want to be able to control the spin and they know they’ll be able to do that out of the bunker and they know they’ll have no chance to do that out of the rough so Connors rates out really well in all the things you just talked about except for maybe bunker player but he’s actually quite good from like 75 to 125 less good from 30 yards as we found out over the years morau is kind of the same as well so I’m just trying to think I if I want to build a different way and start thinking about this a different way not necessarily with bets because that becomes very difficult with Scotty at the top like I’ll bet the bet is in on Straa i thought it was a good number i think that he can win obviously all the win equity is going to be at the top so there are very few guys that you really want to take that many stabs at in the betting market especially from the non- elite players which we see win US Opens but either top 10s top 20s draft kings wise especially building a little bit differently what about someone like Seiwoo here i like it i like Sew a lot um I think he he’s got all the skill sets the one thing I worry about with Sew though is course management not necessarily his forte and I think you’re going to need that here so what about let’s see I mean Aaron Ry is the most accurate player on tour deadly with his wedge do you think putting gets somewhat mitigated here like a a good putter someone who putts well during the week is going to end up there who just has no bis Andrew Landry was the king of this last time through that he just made everything therefore he was there towards the end before his putter finally went cold and I think he shot seven over in the final round but it feels like US Opens do mitigate putting a little bit just because everyone no one’s sticking it really it’s not like it becomes a who can make the most 12footers it’s who can putt the best from 48 ft the flip side of that is you’re going to get a lot of testers for par and everyone’s going to get those and those can be from from um you know predictive distances so I don’t think putting negated but it it’s certainly not going to be a putting contest ball striking will separate players more than pie is there a place that we can look at are potentially different types of greens that will be more predict I assume they’re going to run very firm and exceptionally fast would that be right to say yes they will be probably like 14 to 15 on the stimp and they’re going to be as fast as mother nature will let them so Memorial Augusta where else do you think we could look at potential comp putting in terms of speed i mean I think Memorial is like just such a great comp everywhere not just on putting but the whole course setup the you know the how difficult it is to play out of the rough and how you a lot of the time when you’re in rough you’re chipping out outside of that I think uh I I wish that the truest had been played in firmer faster conditions because that would have been a great great comp i still think it’s going to be a pretty good comp i think I mentioned this to you on on the truest show but when we played the state open at Oakmont the year before we played it at Philly cricket and the difference in the cutline was one stroke and it was the exact same winning score at uh even par so I think you can draw a comparison there as well so taking a look at Scotty played here as an amateur in 2016 he was actually one under after the first round and then bombed out to make the cut but I started looking at some of the names that were up there earlier on and it was a lot of guys who played really well at Riviera over the years why why is that a thing or is it just weird happen stance no I like that too because you get you get the rough you get the the distance like it’s it can be a much longer uh course than even what it says on the scorecard but then you get really firm fast greens there as well i mean think think of like over the last few years I think if you pointed to two golf courses that consistently played really difficult and with really firm greens that players even had trouble holding you think of like the fourth hole the the long par three at Riviera you think of Bay Hill so I think that’s another one potentially but man I I think you’re you’re on to something for sure with Riviera so we’ll we’ll put Mirfield Village we’ll put Riviera and we’ll put Bay Hill and I I g I guess we’ll throw in Augusta to it that makes sense yeah i I think I mean I’ve mentioned this before but like I think one of the more predictive splits when you that you can possibly look at is how a player does on hard courses versus how they do on easy courses so even if even beyond like the similarities in rough or green speed just the fact that you just named like some of the most difficult courses on tour I think that will get you moving in in a good direction as well so I’m just looking at strokes game putting per round denny Olison Ludvig Cam Smith Justin Rose all makes sense i think uh Oberg is is the one like surprised because he’s the one guy in that list that isn’t just like generally a great putter um but we’ve seen him putt really well at Augusta twice one thing I will say there is like I think that sample size might be a little bit small on him and the other thing is I can at least tell you that this year Ober gained a ton of strokes at Augusta not because he was making all of his 8 to 10 footers but because he rolled in like 40 foot bomb after 40 foot bomb which we of course should not expect to carry over no but his sample is weirdly I went back to the past 36 rounds from those courses he has 32 rounds from it okay that’s pretty solid so so yeah maybe maybe there’s more to it than I give credit for yeah like he’s put it well at Bay Hill he’s potted excellently at the Masters memorial he’s actually been quite good a bit of struggles at Riv but that’s about it yeah that sounds pretty solid then and then uh some some more like overall skill set guys that like when you go down the list a little bit like Sunj actually rates out really well here and so does Harris English harris English feels like a random dude who could steal a US Open in his life he really does i I considered playing him last week because he popped so much in our splits both for uh difficult golf courses and for fast screens so that’s that’s definitely a name that we should be mentioning here and then as I brought up to you on the Canadian Open show about guys I was thinking about saving for the US Open Robert McIntyre is there once again as a guy who putts well at all these courses yeah I like the McIntyre call and and he also very much fits the accuracy is going to be even more important than distance but he’s got the length to some degree too especially if we’re getting a lot of run out because he hits like a low penetrating uh like heavy ball that is always going to run out well when he hits the fairway yeah the the other guys that you would expect to be up there Burns is up there Leechman is actually up there but his stats are from way back and he’s won at Bay Hill so that probably helps rasmus Hoygard although his sample is four rounds from Augusta this year straa Xander Morawa Ben Griffin Dietri Victor Havland John Rom Bryson i I feel like I’ve asked this question a hundred times to a 100 people and I I just want someone to tell me yes and I want to pull the trigger but Bryson at 11 to one feels like the bet i think it’s a solid bet but I don’t know that I’d bet it just because I think Rory and Scotty are a tier above him this time around but they are priced that way like it everything has to be price dependent at the same time that is 100% if Scotty’s going to be two and a half to one to win the US Open like I although he he probably is going to win like I I I simply cannot bet that at a especially at a major like if it was the when he was that much at the CJ Cup I was like ah pass but now I’m not I’m not going to if I wouldn’t bet it against like the world’s worst field you think that I’m going to bet it against the world’s best field i I 100% agree with that my point isn’t that we should be betting Scotty Aory instead it’s just that they’re taking so much win equity that I I think 11 is probably fair to Bryson and there’s very few players that you’re going to get fair odds on right what What would Sheffler have to be for you to bet him this week goodness five five and five is what a five what is that win equity wise five out of 20% so probably like 16.67% or something like that which is probably right or even maybe even a little low with the way that he’s playing right now yeah yeah i mean I like this this is kind of just just a personal preference but I’m only going to bet someone that high on the odds board when I know that it’s good value it and probably I have to know that it’s like tremendous value not just a 10% edge or something like that all right any final thoughts about about Oakmont or any experiences from Oakmont you’d like to share one of the uh difficulties that I had on the golf course was that I noticed that week the way it was set up for the Pennsylvania Open misses just off the fairway were a lot worse than misses 20 to 30 yards off the fairway into the gallery definitely into the gallery um but we of course didn’t have a gallery it was just that the rough was thicker right off the fairway then you also have those like the literal ditches that it’s just like fescue rough and you’re lucky to find the ball in them whereas I played with two members that week and they were purposely hitting these like low draws 30 yards right of the fairway knowing that that was the thinner rough my guess is for the US Open that will not be the case that the rough will be disastrous everywhere but to your point like if there are a lot of galleries there we might see better lies 30 yards off the fairway than 5 yards off the fairway which could give bombers even more of an advantage if they can just say “Screw the fairway i’m hitting it over there and I’m just hitting it as far as I can.” So that will definitely be something I want to look out for and it might be something like we might be able to see that just by watching replays of the last time he was at at uh at Oakmont i was going to bring this up dj’s worst holes came from when he just rolled off the fairway cuz he ended up in terrible not only terrible lies but like weird stances cuz there’s bunkers everywhere and the times that he was just able to easily make power is when he really overcooked like he overcooked a four iron that went into a concession stand and he had to take the drop from like over there like yeah no problem and honestly like that might be one of the best uh things to look out for for Bryson because if he has license to just hit it as far as he can and hit it 30 yards right of the fairway or 30 yards left of the fairway and play from a a bad lie in the rough instead of a horrible lie he will probably take that opportunity and do very well with it but again my guess if I had to say right now is that the rough is going to be so bad it doesn’t matter if you hit it where the gallery was it’s going to be awful everywhere and there will be that much of a premium on actually hitting fairways and then I want the the guys that we’ve largely talked about and my other guess there is like especially on DraftKings that’s probably where the edge will be because nobody’s going to go into Oakmont and pick their lineup thinking that distance doesn’t matter everyone’s going to think that distance matters a ton and it will but you see some of the best golfers in the world who continue to have a lot of success without distance and if they slip through the cracks I’ll be on those guys instead well we’ve heard from the people who have played the course who know the most about this stuff so let’s try to break this down statistically using the help of Fantasy National fantasy.com/mo to get yourself 20% off and get access to all of the tools i’ve already created a US Open model we’ll see what it is bring it up on the screen right now for you strokes gained off the tea 15 driving distance 10% fairways gained 5% may even jack that up a little bit for Oak uh just to get some more of that middling type chess player that Keith and I talked about a little bit earlier strokes gained approach 20% proximity the long proximity 175 yards at 200 10% 200 plus at 10% around the green at 10% long par4s 400 to 500 yards and then I have 100 to 200 100 to 125 proximity but I’m actually going to shrink that down a little bit and add in a new proximity range as well of 75 to 100 and split the difference i don’t necessarily want to weight these too much i’m going to put them at 3% a piece but there’s going to be a lot of just mashing it out of this rough and you’re going to be in these awkward ranges we saw a lot of that in 2016 i would expect to see more of that in 2025 unsurprisingly over the past 36 rounds Scotty is number one that’s followed by Bryson Brooks Clanton who I’m not even sure is in the field or not connors Lowry Nean Keegan Damon Burger Straka Meato who again I don’t think he’s in the field we have it just because the official field hasn’t been announced as of the time of this recording i’m just using the odds right now so the odds will try to get you with some of these guys fleetwood Hatton Seiwoo Rory comes in at 16 mainly because of the lack of fairways and the incredible lack of just bad proximity although longer term the approach play is good as we can see with Rory coming in and we’ll see how he finishes up in Canada if it’s just been kind of a lapse his approach play has been kind of ass since he won the Masters now before that it was tremendous and at the Masters it was tremendous but he just really hasn’t had his agame since winning the Masters and that’s not necessarily a path that you want to go into we spoke about Dustin off the top and what he did coming into Oakmont in 2016 and he was just crushing it td Green every single week it’s actually probably something I can throw in i’m gonna wait it at zero just because I feel like I have T Green handled with most of the other stats and just to throw in there so I can see just T Green are there guys that maybe are doing a little bit better than we thought let’s see rory Connors Lowry Nean Bryson Keegan many of the same guys because I had accounted for TD Green already that would pop up you got Ry Ryan Gerard Henley JT Henley Bud Collie is up there as well kittyama Jordan Speed Canley Reed Hideki Rom Thorbjorn and of note to and there there’s there’s my guy Robert McIntyre i keep kind of circling back to him over and over just to see what’s kind of going on i wish that the fairways were a little bit better maybe they are in a smaller sample and we’ll try to break this through with harder courses as well you can always use the US Open tab down at the bottom as well 100% of US Opens have been played at the US Open is good to know when we’re breaking down the field we don’t want to have the wrong information coming in so let’s just actually run this we’re not going to go past 36 let’s go past 12 past three US opens and use this model and we’re going to sort by US opens only as we go through it and click on that very helpful US open tab and see what that spits us out obviously the winners are going to be very good so Windham Clark will be over represented in this but other than that let’s see yeah we can just run we can run how everyone is three to one for Scotty it’s so low the 11 to1 I can get on Bryson may actually end up being the play so we can see them in terms of odds how they rate out the only guys with so Rory at US Opens is top 10 in this field in fairways which is kind of surprising considering Scotty who is best known for his accuracy of this top group is T61 and it’s going to be a lot of talk this week about how and it’s been mentioned how Scotty is inevitable at these things however you know I don’t have putting in this i should probably throw putting into this just to take a look and as Blickl pointed out that there’s going to be the key putting ranges the more predictive putting ranges and mainly for me it’s going to be 5 to 10 feet that’s the only one I’m super concerned about i’ve already mentioned those lag putting stats off the top that Drew Matthews was uh so nice to provide to me uh it’s because everything got taken off let’s try to rejig this up a little bit just for this specific one we probably don’t want to wait 10 to 50 to 5 to 10 at 27% we’ll just throw that in just go back to what we had before overweighting on approach overweighting off the tea strokes gained and overweighting distance and bumping up fairways a little bit more and just see what that spits us out for just US Open players and hopefully that can make a little bit of a difference so it’s Rory Hideki Scotty Xander Morawa Rom Havlin Brooks Bryson Dustin and this is from the past 12 rounds of playing US Opens now for some players I don’t think Dustin’s made the cut every single time he has made the cut almost every single time so he goes back to when we start getting some like weighted numbers and that’s also one of the things about the US Open we do not have the strokes gain data from 2022 but we do from 2020 on so that is very helpful when we’re digging through some of these stats so if you did really well in 2022 you’re going to be under represented by this model at the moment so 5 to 10 feet putting Reed Pavon and that’s in his 12 rounds he’s been very good at these short putts on USGA greens morawa Clark Webb Clanton in his four rounds scotty has just been dominant from this range so it’s crazy to think that he hasn’t won one of these already grio Lowour ended up qualifying havlin Kantlay Nick Taylor nick Taylor’s so strange because he’s become one of the better accuracy players on tour in 2025 and very good with his long irons but you can see he’s 156th of I don’t know how many players that they had there’s only 156 players in the field but there’s 162 in the system right now which doesn’t include some of the players that have not uh actually qualified and they’ll get weeded out as it goes along minw up there as well in his 12 rounds so it’s interesting to see because there’s going to be so many par putts from this key range like how many of these can you make that’s going to keep you afloat the Tita Green is going to get you there but when the time comes to make a critical putt or two can you make it and these are the guys that have done it at the US Open over their past 12 rounds so three to five years in terms of a sample tita Green it’s Rory then it’s Xander then it’s Hideki brooks and Morawa end up being the top five in that time span i don’t remember which US Opens Morawa was awesome at i think he’s just been very good at all of them i know he was in contention at Tori but other than that let’s see yeah the 2022 US Open that was Yeah that’s the RAM that’s the one at Tori that we don’t have no that was at the country club that was at Brooklyn okay that makes more sense 2021 uh was the John Rom year now I just want to make sure I don’t get this completely yeah that was that was Tory Pines and then Fitzpatrick ends up winning in 2022 so five the approach play has been great the off the tea has been great the putting has been great frankly I he does have two top fives in his past four appearances at the US Open but even in 2023 it just seems like these numbers really should have generated a better result than 14th but I guess that’s LA Country Club for you guys just had astonishing weeks when there was opening round 62s on the board so back to that uh you know Sergio Dustin Guido Henley Tom Kim Burger Burger I just think is very interesting this week as that other level of player obviously he’s going to be one of the more accurate players in the field we can see he’s been 33rd at US Opens and fairways he’s been seventh in approach over that time and just overall when you take a look at what he’s been doing throughout the course of the season the putter has gone cold on him which is not great to see considering he’s usually a better than average putter on tour memorial although it probably comps the best to this event at the US Open could just be a bad week for him he’s missed two cuts in a row coming in but that doesn’t mean he can’t grind out a T16 at this event which is useless for the betting market obviously but it could be very good for DraftKings purposes as we start to go down the list a little bit i mentioned Minwall striking and ball speed numbers uh his longer proximity has been pretty good off the tea obviously has been very very good second third in distance 20th in that short range putting this is kind of the collection of guys that I’d want to be around now the wedge play when he needs to save himself not great well below average at US Opens in those numbers let’s see who rates out the best overall kimer weirdly uh who I think is up in terms of US opens so he’s probably not in the field scotty uh Puj didn’t end up qualifying adam Hadwin is up there hideki rates out very well in both and so does Pavon okay that’s really interesting so this is how Pava has kind of done it over the years is what’s making him Zack Johnson was another one who had a very good run at US Opens and it seems like Pava at least in the way that he has played his first three is mimicking something very similar to that like he’s not going to have a ton of distance he’s not poor in distance but very average very average slightly above in approach play 42nd in this field but top 20 in fairways best in the field from 100 to 125 top 10 in the field from 75 to 10 and second in that short range putting this is how you don’t make bogeies you don’t put yourself in awful positions you’re not going to score a bunch but we’re not looking for guys who score a bunch this week although there are going to be scoring holes as we saw in the flyover that you can take advantage of some of them and some guys are going to have some low rounds but it’s about what happens when you don’t have your best stuff how can you just tread right around par the the Pav method is kind of proven itself at US Opens right now that’s why he rates at 15th in the US Open model at US Opens only you can see Straa is actually up there as well from just US Opens he’s 19th obviously I’ve bet him to win i would like to see his putting improve from 5 to 10 feet on these USGA surfaces but frankly he just seems like a better player overall than he has been over the course of his career so Connors is fourth and let’s take a look at who’s been hitting the fairways at US Opens todd Morawa Seiw Connors Straka Sunj Sunj is going to be a very interesting one we’ll see how he does in Canada but his iron play is awful yeah I will show you right now how awful his iron play has been he’s just been piecing it together those aren’t normally the types of players that I like to back like he’s averaging minus 2.7 strokes per start over his last five tournaments he hasn’t gained strokes since the Cognizant a tournament in which he missed the cut the putting has been good the driving has been outstanding he’s hitting every fairway and the chipping has been out of this world good can that keep up at a US Open i’m dubious but this is the sort of player that all of us he was even T16 at Memorial last week despite well gained eight strokes around the green that’s why he ended up there and we’ve seen top end performances from him doing it already did at the Masters earlier this year that if he just putts well everything else that he’s been doing and just maybe you can get like this CJ Cup week where it’s like a.5 on approach as long as he doesn’t bury himself on approach he should be fine but he’s giving himself easy outs off the tea he’s not putting himself in danger these are the chess players again that we were talking about havlin’s been very good at US opens off the tea as have Rory and Ludvig Harmon and Henley are there as well lucas Glover Matt Cooer Billy Horel who’s obviously not playing he’s injured right now Aaron Ry I keep kind of mentioning his name been very good at the short putts at the US Open but goes into this week when you take a look at the 2025 stats as the most accurate player in the field keith and I actually talked off air about how weirdly one of these big events probably sets up better for Tommy Fleetwood to get his first American win than your run-of-the-mill generic event that seemingly sets up really well for him be it Colonial or Heritage or all of the close calls that he’s had just you ramp up the conditions all of a sudden he starts looking a lot better so we’re going to take off the US Open right now and we’re just going to look at it again now that we’ve added putting in to see if that changes anything over the past 12 rounds so we looked at pass 36 now we’re going to look at past 12 scotty and Bryson are one two Mito not playing then you got Hatton Kittyama Straa Ben Griffin Davis Riley John Peterson Patrick Kentlay there’s Keegan again although the putting has been really bad the short putting hasn’t been as big of a factor so maybe that’s RA you see Rory Pendrith and Benjamin James Benjamin James just like Pend’s almost dead last from five to 10 putting over the past 12 rounds which seems kind of amazing to think about that it really shouldn’t be that way for a guy that’s struggling on the greens this year lowry oh big shocker 161st wouldn’t have guessed that one maybe I would have i think all of you would have if I asked you who the guy is worse from putting 5 to 10 feet and the problem is he gives himself so many opportunities from that range that it kind of just absolutely destroys him it makes it seem even worse than it is is the best player short-term on the long hard par fours though 450 to 500 yards so shorter term this is how it’s looking right now you can see Burger kicking around Gerard and Clinton and Ryan Fox ryan Fox is another one that we did not mention as a part of that ball speed conversation but rates out top 25 in this field he’s going to have the distance he has what generally is a very good short game it’s been pretty middling lately but he is someone who can get it up and down plays long par fours really really well and sometimes he brings his putter sometimes he does not but he is someone who goes on absolute tears we saw this in Europe when he was winning over there that he’d be great for about six weeks then fall off the face of the earth currently he had the win to get into the PGA Championship and then came top 30 at a major top 20 last week at Memorial the approach play has been stellar the off the tee lacked a little bit at Memorial but that did lean more accuracy over distance mirfield Village always does that you add his extra distance back in this week that could end up being something that’s very key for him very big to separate him apart so I do like Ryan Fox not going to bet him at 150 to1 but when I start thinking about top 20s guys to make the cut the types of players I want to target Ryan Fox over someone like I mean Keith Mitchell kind of rates out almost exactly the same it’s just I have too much of an experience with Keith Mitchell especially over the last three years that just doesn’t feel good at all to back him in Canada is one thing and I didn’t even want to do that to back him at the US Open seems kind of even worse i He’s another one i don’t know if he actually even qualified for this field bobby Mack is up there as well i like Bobby Mack this week just the approach play continues to be really really strong and the around the green game has not been very good but historically has been very good in that regard and I think that the condition set up really well for him so that’s the past 12 rounds overall heading into the tournament now what we’re going to do is take the past 24 rounds which will give less credit to live players and European players because obviously they don’t have stats from anything but we need to look at difficult courses who plays well at difficult courses we’ll look at it from the model perspective first and then we’re going to take a look at the strokes gain perspective just to see who is gaining the most strokes because sometimes guys do it a little bit here a little bit there but Scotty is number one Rory is number two Bryson is number three the top three players in the world when you get them to courses that score hard relative to par they’re the best three players they are also one three and two in strokes gain ta green over that time so that’s why they’re up there after that and I I think this is probably the best representation that we’ve seen so far of what the odds dictate what sentiment dictates and how the numbers are actually lining up so I’m actually very interested in how the rest of the top 25 shakes out from here because we’ve now created a model in conditions where we know the proven performers now come out at the top so we’re trying to test around to see what works the best with this ludvig is next at number four connor is number five rom is number six poor Meato gets so much credit for like a few really good rounds but after that it’s still Brooks Shane Keegan Hatton then into Davis Riley Bud Collie Seb Straka Moria that’s your top 15 so I’ve said that I’m probably going to bet Bryson i’ve already bet on Straka so that’s going to be an 11 to1 for me and an 80 to1 for me how do I fill out the rest well it depends on what Lowry’s number is and what Keegan’s number is those would be my two main targets after that you can see that Bud Collie is 210 to1 that I actually think is very intriguing not so much as a win but if you can get a top 10 and I know that the if you play on books that have eachways at the moment now we’re in a situation where you can bet him to win at 200 to one and take his eight places and I I I know I speak about this every major that comes along but I think it’s important to reinforce for new people that are watching i don’t know what the top 10 on him is right now but I can tell you if you get oneif the odds for his top eight at 200 to one it will be 40 to1 i would guess that his top 10 number is less than half than that it’s probably 16 to1 15 to1 so you’re still better off betting although you do lose the two places and you might get chopped as a part of that if too many people tie for that each way but you get chopped on the top 10 unless you play at certain books which don’t have dead heat rules but I’d be willing to take four times three and a half times the payout on the top eight and have the upside equity of the win for exactly the same amount of money that I would need to bet on the top 10 that’s always how I like to play it and Bud Collie seems to be one of the better options for that the one thing that he’s not doing really well coming into this at hard courses is his long proximity but if we go take a look at what courses are actually being mentioned and try to take a look at it then he did very poorly on that at Memorial but did very well from the 175 to 200 charles Schwab played harder uh on two of the four days the PGA Championship Valero the players uh so all of his rounds do account for this year and digging a little bit back into last year and frankly I’m not too concerned about Bud Collie from a year ago he was still working his way back from that back injury he seems to be fully healthy at the moment and so he is a player that I’m going to like this week near the bottom draft kings wise placement market and maybe that each way to try to get greedy it’s frankly honestly it’s probably a bad bet you know what it is a bad bet doesn’t mean I’m not going to make it these are the bets that I like to make who else rates out well xander Hogy Havlin Fenow Henley is up there as well another chess type player that we’ve spoken about a few times hideki Damon Dustin Neman so Maverick McNeely weird to see that his short-range putting is so bad at these hard courses over the past 24 rounds and we know that he is one of I don’t want to say the premier putters on the PGA Tour but he’s very very good he has not been as good lately he’s had some big big misses but he’s also had some big spikes so fifth at Memorial that is a tournament like when I spoke to Blickl Mirfield Village Augusta National Bay Hill and Riviera are probably the putting ones putting stats that I want to look at so let’s see how he did at those the Masters lost a bunch i believe it was his debut at the Masters sometimes that does taking getting a acclimated a little bit so at Memorial he had he gained this year after having a bad go in his first time through at the US Open he played the last time he played in the US Open was 2017 no strokes gained data from there the Genesis was at Tory Pines this year so that doesn’t really do us any good but at Riviera in his two appearances he’s gained 2.4 once then he gained 8.4 in 2022 at the Arnold Palmer he has gained each of the past three years on the green so hopefully the putting isn’t so much of an issue for someone like Matt McNeely as you can see off the tea has been very good better distance than fairways at these harder courses but that’s about what you would expect tends to play better with smaller greens but and these are giant greens but I’m I’m going to overlook that a little bit he comes 17th in TA Green coming into the week for that it’s funny because Se is 45th on these courses despite still ranking out on at 14th because I have given so much weight to driving distance and frankly he just doesn’t do that all that well and is around the green at these harder courses has been atrocious 152nd of the 162 players I’m looking at right now and he has bloodstrokes around the green in six straight events so you have to start thinking to yourself how is he going to have an out here and I do think that the thick rough at least green side will mitigate some of the touch that people have you’re not going to be able to spin the ball you’re not going to be able to get it to stop so the closest I can have to that unless I sort by shaved surfaces if he has to lay up a bunch which I don’t want him doing now it’s going to happen to everyone periodically but a player like Stracoa you take him because he’s second in fairways so presumably he’s going to have better lives to go hit greens in regulation over time considering he’s top 10 in approach to go along with it he’s going to have to rely on those longer irons which has not been a problem for him now if it becomes a problem he’s not going to win anyway so I don’t care how he chips so for me he’s going to have to be up there in greens in regulation and when you take a look at a 75 to 100 and 100 to 125 it’s that if that’s where a hackout distance is he’s top 45 in the field in both of those categories so at least I feel like he has some outs that way and he’s currently riding a super hot putter coming into it other players to look at Pendra and Reed Ryan Canley i’ve mentioned Aaron Ry’s name like 50 times on this show so I’m going to just put a little star next to his name he’s that other type of player that I do like nikolai Burgerer go Fox Sergio Speed there is Joe Highmith as Keith pointed out Joe Highmith and Jacob Bridgeman both having success making it to the knockout round of the US AM that was held here when they were playing davis Thompson Sew our guy Andrew Novak is someone that we can look at he does have the 24 rounds at the difficult courses and he has better odds than Adam Scott to win this week he has better odds than a lot of guys to win this week and then you see Bobby Mack ends up through now we’re into the Norin Fleetwood Jordan Smith Matt Fitzpatrick that rounds out the top 50 so this is probably the base of names I want to start building around as we go through both DraftKings starting to look at placements to play to make or to miss underdog wise uh for a to miss the cut parlay i much prefer the to miss the cut parlay to the to make the cut parlay at the US Open because of fewer players making the cut and just the randomness and how hard this can get that one or two holes can absolutely take you out of this tournament if you’re interested in that if you you do want to play these make the cut miss the cut parlays and you live in a state that doesn’t offer that Underdog does offer that the week of on the fantasy app you can play the fantasy props together build out as many as eight that you like if you use code mayo now at underdog you’ll get a deposit bonus of up to $1,000 and go fire away at some make them make the cut miss the cut parlays and you’ll get a free pick to throw it into it now the worst players in the field based in this model and this is maybe another way to look at it as well doesn’t mean all these guys are going to miss the cut but it’s just not working for them hadwin Rasmus Hoygard Ricky Fowler Taylor Moore Thirsty Lawrence Jason Day rates out atrociously in this he’s 156 brian Campbell Andrew Putnham EVR shockingly Nick Dunlap is not last shank Wallace Nick Taylor Phil Ryan McCormick he’s the captain now captain Phillips is down there eric Cole Max Homer Windam Clark despite being ninth in distance 13th off the tea everything else sucks for what he’s doing right now dietri is another one cam Davis Trevor Conn Harmon rates out poorly burns rates out poorly i I’m just going through the guys that you might be considering this week tiger Woods not playing but he does rate out poorly justin Rose Justin Thomas Cam Smith Sunj Ben Anne who else do we got here spawn Oshay Poston Nicholas Norgard Muller these guys have zero or one round so I’m not too concerned about that and Ou’s name is spelled wrong so I’m guessing that’s not him let’s see a name is just spelled wrong that’s because it’s imported from the site that spells his name wrong that’s why so if you’re trying to find Ouay wait until the fe the full field is actually posted or the DraftKings prices come down with the real field because they won’t have misspellings on names on their end therefore not registering it in our system i’m doing this a little bit earlier because I got the live show coming up this weekend want to make sure that the research show got out so that’s a a look at the bottom of the board as we’re going through and just a lot of guys with zero rounds played under these difficult relative to par conditions so now we’ve taken a look at difficult courses how they play out within the model ditto with how the US Open plays out we’re just now going to look at simple strokes gained and we’re probably going to look at strokes gain total because that might tell a little bit of a different story we’re going to keep it at difficult settings relative to power we’re going to look at past 24 rounds overall and just take a look at scoring average who has been the best and by how much sheffller has been by far the best almost gaining three strokes per round in difficult conditions bryson is two Lowry is three Connors is four Rory is five in overall strokes gain those are the five players gaining over two strokes per round in strokes gain total in difficult conditions then there is a massive drop off to number six so Royy’s 2.12 per round russell Henley is sixth he’s 1.57 per round so then you have this collection from Henley down to all within a quarter point per round of each other henley Rahm Xander Morawa there’s Ryan Fox again so again the star is already there next to his name there’s Ryan Gerard again i’m now going to star him because he has now popped up in three or four different iterations that we’ve looked at bud Collie is up there as well ludvig Riley Burns Clinton Hatton Canlay Keegan continues to be there so we’re going to add him to the list patrick Reed continues to rate out well in all of these metrics too i do worry about him a little bit at the US Open because when things go bad for him they go really really bad not necessarily the best type of player that I want mav McNeely is up there as is Denny denny is another one of those accuracy hot putter players that I could see doing very well again this week if you’re trying to find the Zack Johnson Brendan Todd you the lesser Moraicas of the world that’s kind of the role that Denny fits on tour right now and especially amongst this field there’s Harris English who I’ve talked up a bit on this show another one that with the eight placings you might be able to catch he’s 125 to1 right now by the time that the odds reset on Monday he may be 150 that would probably be a go for me to get that top eight to go along with it cuz I think that I could I could most definitely see him coming T3 at this US Open and if he comes T3 he has a chance to win more than likely that he will just continue to grind it out we’ve seen Hogi’s name a few times we’ve seen Spit’s name a few times i’m not super interested in that straa is another one that trends uh is you know in the positives along with Nean and McIntyre and Sunj if we shrink the size down a little bit and this might just be all noise we take samples this small of 12 rounds but if we just redo that again continuing on difficult courses Scotty separates himself a little bit more he’s now over three strokes gained per round rory Bryson and Ben Griffin are the only three players gaining more than two but once again Scotty 3.2 Rory 2.8 Bryson 2.7 and then Ben Griffin at number four is 2.0 0 so a massive drop off on the per round performance from the top three the three favorites and everyone else down the list ryan Gerard continues to be up there havlin and Sheffller make their way up as does Connor and Connors and Lowry continue to be there john Rom continues to be there ryan Fox moves up harris English moves up davis Riley moves up and then all of a sudden here’s an appearance from Fleetwood straa gets significantly better the shorter we make the sample because he has become a bit of a different player over the course of time mcneely moves up pendrith continues to move up bradley moves down a little bit but still very good in these numbers wallace Seiwaserman bud Collie continues to be there too as does Matt Mccardi who’s probably going to be like $5,400 on draftings you can see Russell Henley takes a precipitous drop he seems to be the biggest follower in the short term of this mix there’s Aaron Ry as well just continuing to be point4 strokes that’s not enough to get it done but it’s enough to tread water and be good enough as we go through this that will do it on the Pat Mayo experience i hope you enjoyed the full ride you got the information you need to set yourself up to make your own decisions for Oakmont and the US Open this week tomorrow Andrew Novak full interview on the show me playing the sim with my golf coach going hole by hole for Oakmont and talking about which players are set up where to miss where not to miss that’s going to be a fun show that comes out on Saturday sunday I have a filler show in between as a pallet cleanser and then we’re here for the real deal stretch run me Cust Jeff on Monday Best Bets with Rosen Cam on Tuesday Tambo and DraftKings on Wednesday Cut Sweat Live on the Friday we’re blowing out US Open Week and we need your help to share this show around anytime you see a show tweeted out please retweet it that gets you in a draw for those proval maybe maybe some other fun equipment and maybe even some cash at the same time so you might as well go do all of the giveaway stuff now leave your winner in the comment section go rate and review the audio podcast sub to Mayo Media Network smash the like and make sure you share everything around this week because it’s going to be a whole lot of fun i’m very excited for this US Open i just really want to strap in and watch it all i want to embrace the carnage this week all right thank you all for watching i’m Pat Mayo i’ll see you next time mayo experience experience
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro/Quick Notes
8:23 Course Info/Flyover & US Open History
20:56 Andrew Novak
28:25 Keith Stewart
1:14:33 Alex Blickle
1:34:23 US Open Stat Research & Model
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Bryson
Shane Lowry winner
Scottie stays hot and wins the US Open
Scottie wins over Bryson
Rahm to win
Picking brooks koepka to win because I hate myself
Rahm’s driver gets back on track and he wins another major.
Give me Niemann, its his time. Convinced he'll at least be in contention on Sunday
Great show Pat! Very informative and love all the perspectives
Scotty to win
Keegan for the win
Colin Morikawa wins it
Straka for the W! Love You Pat & Keith is da man!
I'm ashamed as I type this. Denny McCarthy for the win.
Scottie to win by 3 minimum
Rory picks up major #2 for 2025
Bryson gets the W
Keegan 🇺🇸
Harris English for the win
Bryson DeChambeau
Lowry -2
Xander
You are all overlooking Hatton!
As I've been saying all year, long and difficult course means fire up Harris English!
Rory big 3? Have you seen him lately? Is he still celebrating his Masters victory? I'm adding Rory to my miss the cut parlay
Rory to beat the MAN in form sheffler and redeem ALL from his 2nd place last year…… you read it hear first.. Scutterballs oot" 😊
Scottie wins of course
Shane lowery baby! Huge event, brutal track. He’ll show up
Cam Young
Scotty Scheffler wins the US Open at -4.
Tommy Fleetwood
Scottie I think checks too many boxes. His B+ game might be enough to win
100 bucks on An will get you 25k
Bryson for the W