2025 US Open Picks & Predictions | PGA Tour Bets

It’s another Major week in golf as the PGA Tour heads to Oakmont, Pa., for the 125th US Open!

With Scottie Scheffler unsurprisingly topping the odds as the favorite (+275), plus Rory McIlroy (+850) & two-time US Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau (+900) right behind, the stage is set for an incredible tournament! The only question is who will come out on top, but we have the best bets & predictions for the 2025 US Open, plus all the news you need to know from around the PGA Tour.

Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 24th stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E24).”

⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:19 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
05:39 Ryan Fox Wins the 2025 RBC Canadian Open
07:37 Is Cameron Young the American Tommy Fleetwood?
10:52 Sam Burns Chokes Again
11:49 Joaquin Niemann Wins LIV Virginia
15:14 What Happened to Rory McIlroy?
18:02 Caddie Notes: Oakmont Country Club Breakdown
30:26 Club Twirls: 2025 US Open Picks & Predictions
32:07 The Favorites
45:34 The Mid-Range
50:11 The Longshots
53:04 The Hat Pick
54:17 Final Picks
55:16 Plugs + Outro

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🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
🏌️‍♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the Nineteenth Hole. We are live on InBetween Media Sports. Lifestyle, everything in between. We have reached the third major of the twenty twenty five golf season. The U.S. Open, the USGA’s version of carnage. Probably the most carnage we’re going to get all season and maybe the most carnage we’ll get until the next decade when Oakmont hosts the U.S. Open again. I cannot wait. You know how much I love carnage. If you like carnage, go ahead and like this video because there’s going to be lots of carnage in this video. You might as well subscribe to the whole channel, IBT Media, and jingle the bell for notifications for when we go live with more carnage. After this, we’re going to get right into it. I hope you’re ready. Ooh, baby, I got to add Connor. Where’d you go, Connor? Connor! Let’s see. Producer of the year here. We crush when we’re left to our own devices. Like, just kill it every time. Oh, yeah. Good stuff. Well, we have reached the ninth hole. It is US Open Week. Connor, how are we doing today? I am fantastic. I and, you know, had had Cam Young not gagged away last week or Rory McIlroy showed up, I’d probably be richer, too. But what do you do? Yeah. And if some butts were candy and nuts. yeah last week uh not really that noteworthy uh we’ll go over the news and the niblick but it’s gonna be a quick one because we’re looking ahead just like rory was to oakmont western pa home region of our fearless leader seth woolcock uh western pa oakmont country club the best U.S. Open golf course, maybe besides Pebble Beach. It’s a toss-up. Oakmont, the most vintage golf course on the U.S. Open rota. Carnage. We might get scoring in the pluses for the whole field, Connor. Last time this tournament was held, only four players broke par for the week. And the time before that, nobody did. Angel Cabrera won it plus five back in O-six. That’s tough. That’s tough golf. Four days of carnage. I hope you’re buckled up. Since there’s no trees or water at Oakmont, I’m drinking water tonight. You got anything drinking, Connor? I went to Costco and they had some teeling on sale for thirteen dollars. So I know it’s a cheap bottle, but I enjoy it. I enjoy teeling. It’s kind of a kind of a rum and rum bomb a little bit on an Irish whiskey. So I don’t hate it. I don’t hate it either. Teeling is. Classic Irish whiskey. Vintage Irish whiskey. Vintage. A lot of vintage going on. A lot of vintage. Oakmont is vintage. I’m excited to go over this golf course. But let’s get into the news because we do have to go and laud our guest host last week, Keith Fleming, Pride of Georgia. The southern boy comes on here, replaces me while I was on assignment. Nobody can replace you, Bo. but I mean they should at this point this guy comes out here at the rbc canadian open and drops some wisdom and benefited himself more than anybody because this dude won eleven grand in dfs on his picks that he brought onto this show so golf clap for keith fleming we’ll we’ll have you on anytime if you help us win eleven grand at dfs that’s that’s incredible Yeah, dude. Keith is a smart, smart dude. Tons of knowledge. And how he got Ryan Fox in his model. I have no idea because he was nowhere near either one of ours. He sent me a message on Friday night. He’s like, I’m in this single entry and I’m the only one that’s got six of six through. And he was in like third place. And I’m like, you got this locked up. Yeah, he sent me the same thing. And I sent him the brave heart. Hold on. Yep. No, Keith, Keith is a smart, smart dude. And, uh, Bo, you missed out, man. It was a, it was a fun show. We had a lot of ideas bouncing off, off of each other. So Keith is welcome back anytime. Many things are bouncing on the show and I’m on it and ideas are not one of them. Mostly our guts are bouncing around. Oh, yeah. That’s what I was referring to. Let’s get into the news around the world of golf. Not without Ryan Fox and his victory at the Canadian Open. Let’s get it. Well, in case you missed it, there were a lot of guys that Connor and I bet on and played with at the RBC Canadian Open who were close to winning. But the guy who did win was… New Zealander, the big, strong Kiwi with the funky swing, no practice swings. Ryan Fox, second win this season. He won at Myrtle Beach, and now he’s won at the RBC Canadian Open at the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, the Hoot course. It was a Hoot. He won the fourth playoff hole over Sam Burns, who fired a final round, sixty two. to match Ryan Fox’s seventeen foot birdie putt on the low side lip that went in on eighteen to force the playoff, breaking my heart into a million pieces. And then, of course, they they go through three playoff holes. They have to move the pin placement after the third playoff hole on the eighteenth hole because it was just too much the same. They kept making par after par after par. Burns had all these chances to beat Ryan Fox and he converted on none of them. But I think the shot of the tournament was on the seventy second hole when Fox needed a birdie to force that playoff and hit a five wood over water to what a shot. I mean, what a shot. That is a career-defining shot for Ryan Fox. That’s what won him the tournament. Got him into the playoff where he eventually did beat Sam Burns, our guy Sam Burns. Sad, I’m crying. But kudos to Ryan Fox. Hung in there and on the most important hole of the day, made it happen. Give me your take and let’s not dwell on it because it’s really depressing to see our guy Sam Burns completely take take over the show on sunday and still didn’t quite have enough dude what was more depressing we’ll get back to burns in a second but what was more depressing for me was I was all over cam young all over cam young and I wasn’t that crazy and I’m watching him I’m watching him lining up the shot coming in on eighteen and I’m just like this is right in his wheelhouse like all he’s gotta do is put a nice move on this ball get it on and and we’re going to a playoff with burns And what’s he do? Blast it. Fifteen, twenty yards over the green. Proceeds to duff a chip. Then hit an equally bad chip. Then blow a putt. It’s just like. Cam Young to me. Is the American Tommy Fleetwood. Without any level of Tommy’s consistency. Right? But it’s like every time Cam gets into position. He finds a way to gag it away. Every time. And I should know. I think there’s a distinction between the two. Where a couple years ago. When Cam Young was on tour. He was runner up like. eight weeks in a row. It felt like he was always pushing for a win. He was always at the top of the leaderboard in majors and signature events before they even existed. And he just didn’t quite have enough to win those tournaments. But then he went through a year and a half where he couldn’t make a cut. And now he’s finally coming back to where he’s hitting top tens again. And now we’re starting to get the tease that is Cam Young. Cam Young has all the talent in the world to win golf tournaments, but he’s got the choke gene. The clutch gene is zero percent. Madden, you got your toughness rating. Cam Young, not great, Bob. Tommy Fleetwood is not a tease. He’s your steady Eddie. I’m going to make top twenty and you’re going to like it. And I’m never even going to really threaten a championship. Like if you think I’m going to win a tournament, it’s really not going to be close. Even though at the end of the year, when you look back at, oh, look at Tommy Fleetwood had the most top tens and the most top twenties on tour. He only missed two cuts out of thirty seven events. That’s Tommy Fleetwood. He’s not a tease. He’s a he’s a you’re steady Eddie guy who just is never going to win. I can’t be on this week. I love Fleetwood this week. We’ll get there. But why? We’ll get Cam Young. Cam Young is he’s a tease and he’s just got doesn’t have the clutch gene. Tommy Fleetwood’s a good, not great golfer at this level. And it’s yes, it’s a grinded type of golf course. We’ll talk about that. But I think that there’s a distinction between them. Is Cam Young the American Tommy Fleetwood? He is the American Greg Norman. that’ll work because big norman did win some majors I think cam young he’s still really young he might be a major winner like a pga he’s kind of in the mold of brooks kepka without that toughness clutch gene that brooksie obviously had back in the day uh I think tommy fleetwood is more of your pollen uh call him Montgomery, where he never wins a major. He never really wins a lot, but he shows up at the Ryder Cup and he’s an absolute thorn in your side at the Ryder Cup. That’s Tommy Fleetwood. He’s Ian Poulter, even though Ian Poulter also won golf tournaments that Tommy Fleetwood never did. God, it’s going to be a long show because we are going to talk about Fleetwood. So we’re going to go head to head on that again. But getting back to Sam Burns, like the most frustrating thing I think for me is Sam Burns comes in as the number one putter on tour and can’t get it done from six feet. And it’s just, I mean, it’s, you know. I wanted to cry because it’s just the worst putter on tour makes his putt. The best putter on tour misses theirs. It’s just. Yeah. What do you do? Thanks, Sam Burns. Thanks, Cam Young. Without you, I would have no money in my bank account. And more hair on top of your head. I don’t know if that’s a whole deal. Long gone, long gone. Even before Cam Young was Cam Now. I don’t have a lot of hair, but I have hair. Yeah. Well, if you keep betting Cam Young, you’re not going to have much hair. You keep taking me to task on Tommy Fleetwood, I’m going to rip your hair out. How do we get it? Well, there was some winning from a guy who has done a lot of winning this season on the live tour. That is Chilean Joaquin Neiman. That was impressive. Fourth win on the live tour. This dude has made fifty three mil just in winnings on the live tour since he joined the tour. That’s really good. He won four million total in his career on the PGA Tour before he made the switch. And I’m sure he made a five to six figure seven or six to seven figure bonus payout when he did switch to live. This dude, he made a good choice. He’s winning. He’s making money. He’s finally competing in a major at the PGA with the eighth place finish and riding Playing pretty hot. Like four wins this year is nothing to shake a stick at. And going into Oakmont, it’s got to be a good omen for Joaquin Neiman. He’s one of my favorite guys to watch. But up until the PGA, he had never finished in a top-twenty in a major, despite how good he is at normal events. What’s your take on Joaquin Neiman last week in Virginia and going into Oakmont this week? Yeah. Joaquin Neiman. I think, I think the one thing you and I have always loved about the guy is he’s, he’s got a lot of different shots, like got a ton of different shots in the bag. Love the power when he needs it. Love the consistency on approach that he has overall. Like he’s just, he’s a really, really talented golfer. And he’s probably the, I would say the exception of the rule in terms of like staying competitive. Yeah. Bryson Bryson pushes the envelope with this too, but, I think Joaquin not only is playing competitively on live, but he’s also coming over and playing competitively in majors. I think there’s a lot to be said for that because a lot of those guys have just taken their foot completely off the gas. This guy just continues to hone his craft and get better and better every single week. He’s benefiting in the pocketbook by keeping his foot on the pedal. Yeah. And I think I think it just goes to the type of player that he is. Even when he was on the tour, he was the same kind of way. Like it was constant improvement, constant grinding. You know, we always thought he was going to be like the next big thing. And I still think that there’s a shot at that. What is he, twenty four, twenty four years old? Well, and dude, if we reintegrate the two leagues or yeah, the two tours back together at some point here in some capacity, even, I mean, Neiman really can make a run at being, being one of the best in the world. So I’m excited for that. I’m excited to see him this week. You know, I think, I think one thing that really popped and helped him at the PGA championship, it carried over to Virginia a bit is he he’s got, he’s got his putter going and the putter typically is kind of that Achilles heel for him. Yeah. So, I mean, he gained almost four strokes at the PGA Championship. So, if he keeps the putter rolling this week, carries similar approach numbers, I mean, Joaquin’s going to be a force to be reckoned with this week. Yeah, the only place I’ve seen him really struggle is scrambling on occasion and then short iron approach. He’s a really good long iron player. We’ve always known that he’s really struggled short iron buckets, which there will be a few of Oakmont. He’s he’s actually trending in the top fifty and putting coming in. So at least by my my filtered metrics. So I’m not worried about his putting at all. Neiman, my only worry about is his odds, which we’ll cover in a little bit. On the other end of the spectrum, besides Joaquin Neiman, is Rory McIlroy. Plus nine through two rounds at the Canadian Open when the cut was minus three. Missing the cut by twelve shots the week before a major. Not exactly inspiring. connor for your guy rory mcelroy is is there something wrong here or was he just he caught looking get caught looking ahead um when he was kind of stuck in toronto for for a week stuck in toronto is an interesting way to look at it since he skipped the memorial to play in toronto um but uh um I don’t know. I think he was looking ahead, but the thing about it, man, is he’s really had a lot of down weeks, especially on approach since the Masters, which… That wedge game went away, but it went back away. We were like, oh, yeah, Rory at Pebble Beach. Rory at the Masters. His wedges were dialed, and now it’s like, yeesh, this is way better than even before. Yeah, like what happened? So, yeah, I think he was looking ahead a little bit, and I think Rory’s give-a-crap quotient was probably tilted pretty good on the negative. Negative give-a-crap quotient. So, yeah, I think we’re good with Rory. I think this is a lot what we talk about with Rory is that if he isn’t literally winning, you know, everybody hits the panic button on him. So I like him. I like him this week. I think another week under his belt, getting used to the new driver, getting used to some of the bag changes he made. um I think he’ll be fine to go here and you got to remember with rory he is the best driver of a golf ball on on planet earth you just you’re never going to be able to take it away and that will be very important this week yeah so so I think rory’s fine I think uh you know I I think we both wanted to bring it up though because I think everybody again is just panic button right like what’s going on man what’s what’s he done and it’s like well there’s so many talking points it’s like a soap opera with this guy all season He’s either winning or he’s blowing up or he’s losing and he’s not caring. He’s not interested. He’s skipping the Memorial. It doesn’t even call Jack about it. He goes to Canada for some reason, just for a, Hey, how you doing? I’m going to shoot plus nine and bounce on Friday. Uh, I was still like him this week at Oakmont, which, uh, you’re gonna, you’re going to wax poetic about one of the best golf courses on the planet. That is one of the iconic us open venues. Connor, are you ready? I am ready to read my pre-written notes. Okay. That’s super inspiring. Can’t wait. Connor Kaplan, you know, the audience can’t see it, but now I got Nicolette in the background. Give me, give me crap in the private chat too. I just can’t get a break around this spot, this place. Hey, if you didn’t deserve it, we wouldn’t give it to you. One hundred and twenty fifth playing of the U S open. That’s a lot of versions. And how many times has Oakmont hosted? I think it’s more than any other golf course. Yeah, and I had the number. I had the number. I think it’s ten. This is the tenth time. This is the tenth U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club in Western PA on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, the Steel City, the Steel Curtain. The Berg, as our illustrious leader keeps calling it. We got fries and slaw on the sandwiches, like insane people, but they got the pews and the thick Kentucky bluegrass rough and the biggest greens east of the Mississippi. Connor, tell me about Oakmont. Oakmont is a par-seventy, seventy-three hundred and seventy-two yards. Greens are poa. So Oakmont is definitely one of the most, if not the most difficult course in the U.S. Open Rota. Par fives are all exceedingly long with two of them over six hundred yards. The par threes can be stretched out quite long as well. During practice rounds this week, the six hole have been stretched out to nearly three hundred yards, which was kind of insane to watch. Par fours on this course are actually relatively short in comparison. So the players will get a little bit of reprieve there. But yeah, the layout is really built to encourage accuracy. The fairways are super narrow. There’s several points at which the fairways are like less than twenty yards wide. Tons and tons and tons of bunkering at this course. There’s somewhere between one hundred and seventy five and two hundred bunkers firmly in play, including the iconic church views that Bo mentioned, which I believe run between hole three and four, three and four. Yep. massive massive and they the berms that are in the church church pews actually are like layered with native grass as well so like the aerial view you see of them doesn’t give do them justice of just how like how devastatingly like steep and uh is it better to be in the sand or the pews themselves neither is the answer Yeah, the only place to be here is the fairway, if we’re being honest, but you hit on it. The greens are pretty darn big, but very challenging. The greens, they’re super, super fast. They’re going to be between a fourteen and a fifteen on the stem. Likely you’ll see a lot of guys hitting the green and then rolling off. Just beyond the fringe on almost every single hole is this five to six-inch deep rough. They’ve intentionally grown it way out, and the ball literally just vanishes. I’ve been watching guys try and get up and down in the practice rounds, and it’s just – it’s incredible. Oh, Cardin’s – I mean, I hit the same type of duff shots on my public course, but like these guys, I mean, they’re getting eaten up by this rough. And the rough isn’t just around the greens that way. It’s all throughout the course. I mean, literally, if you’re a foot off of the fairway, you’re in this super, super deep rough. So, yeah, accuracy, accuracy, accuracy. The course is likely going to see players in very modest single-digit scoring to par. even possibly even or over par, given how difficult the weekend is going to get. The weather on Saturday and Sunday is supposed to be pretty rainy, pretty windy. So we’re adding like between twenty and twenty five mile per hour wind gusts to this already ridiculously difficult golf course. So in the words of Bo, carnage. And it’s, it’s something I look forward to every season. We got less of it at LACC a couple of years ago. And it’s just, and we need to return to our roots at the USGA and make it the most brutally difficult, make the pros best. ball and cry and whine and complain I want to hear every golfer with the soundbite of it’s too hard it’s not fair boohoo boohoo I want all of them I want scotty to be slamming clubs I want john rom to spontaneously combust I want tyrell hatton to pull a tin cup and snap every club in his bag I want it to be that tough We got odds on that somewhere. I’d take that bet. I’m getting excited for the carnage. Because, yeah, five-inch rough. And explaining stint meter to people, like, fourteen or fifteen, it’s a measurement in inches. So you have a twelve-inch ramp. It’s at a forty-five degree angle. You put the ball on the top of the ramp, and you let it roll down the ramp on a flat surface. And you measure how many inches it rolls out. If a normal green, you drop it from twelve inches, it rolls out twelve inches. Twelve is a standard green speed. These are going to roll out upwards of fifteen inches from a twelve inch roll. That means they’re like putting on marble. Well, and even week to week, I mean, generally speaking, what we see is like we fourteen isn’t unheard of. We know, but but Augusta National’s thirteen and a half usually, which is considered very fast. Yeah, and that’s what I was going to say. Typically, given varying conditions and stuff, most weeks you’re going to average out to around twelve and a half, thirteen. Typically, greens are going to play fairly fair on the tour, but especially on these. These have got these subtle, slippery breaks to them that just… um and the big ones there’s there’s these greens are gigantic so there’s spots that are super hilly and like even on the par three eighth which is measuring a driver into the wind for everybody in the field it’s two eighty nine from the to from the middle from the back t to the middle of the green is two eighty nine on that par three it’s considered the flattest green on the property and it’s not flat all these greens have huge potato chip vibes to them so yeah good luck putting on a lightning fast version of the hood of a volkswagen well in that part three you just mentioned too I mean it garners a thirty three percent bogey or worse rate I mean like what in the practice round today they were hitting into the wind and everybody hit driver yeah morikawa’s got a nice clip up of him hitting driver I watched that one a couple times It’s that that’s going to be fun. The part both par fives. There’s two on the course. They’re both over six twenty. They’re just they’re beasts like the one that they’re going to have that one. I believe it’s number was ten or eleven. Tends the six twenty one. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, no, it’s twelve. Yeah. So number twelve is six thirty two from the tips to the middle of the green. They can stretch that out like they did back in twenty sixteen to six eighty four. So that will be if they if the wind is down, like if it’s downwind that that day, I’m pretty sure they’re going to stretch it out to as far as they can. And that’s going to be fun like these. It’s a three shot hole. Three shot holes on the PGA Tour are very rare because even at six hundred yards, most some of these guys like Rory and Ryan Fox and and Dustin Johnson can reach it into with a driver and a D.O.D. driver off the deck or three would. Nobody’s reaching these par fives and two this week. And that’s what’s going to be pretty exciting. I think I actually disagree with you. I think Thursday, Friday, you got a pretty good shot of seeing like especially Rory. uh, driver, he can, he can get there. Yeah. Especially if he’s hitting the fairway, the three fifty carry. Yeah, he can do it. And I’m not saying Rory’s the only guy, but you got to be able to, you got to be able to get it about three forty, three fifty. Yeah. And if you can do that and be in the fairway, I think you got a genuine look at getting on into, but, but you don’t want to miss. No, no. Cause then you’re, you’re proper screwed. Yes. Proper screwed and looking at a bogey, even though you’re pin high and two in one of those bunkers or in that rough short-sighted or above the hole, even just being above the hole here is a bad thing. Like you don’t want to be anywhere wrong or you’re looking at bogey or worse. So metrics wise, scrambling, bogey avoidance, double bogey avoidance, par four scoring driving distance helps driving accuracy is paramount. And of course, putting and three putt avoidance. These greens, again, are the biggest you’re going to see in ten years. Like the only place with bigger greens is the century at Kapalua. And even that, those greens are so slow that it doesn’t even matter. These greens are huge and fast. One thing that I looked at that I added in just to kind of give me a read, and, you know, I do this for reasons other than what it’s intended for, but I added opportunities gained. I like seeing where these guys are kind of setting up for scoring opportunities, right? So, like, even if we’re not going for a birdie, I like the concept of knowing these guys are sticking it close, ten, fifteen feet on approach shots. So I baked that one in just a little bit just to kind of, Just to kind of give us a feel for like, okay, these guys are good on approach, but who’s super pinpoint accurate on approach? Because it’s going to mitigate some of that size of the green, some of the risk of running off the greens. Are you going to tell me Scotty Scheffler’s number one in opportunities gained? I’m going to tell you Scotty Scheffler, at least in the way I filtered, is number one in opportunities gained. Shocker. I’m going to add that to my filter right now just so I can see what it does with my filtering because you know how I do it. I’m just like the most filtered. Well, it was wild too because I wouldn’t have told you Colin Morikawa would have been second over the last thirty six rounds, but he is. And then it goes Sepp Straka followed by JT. JT is not as surprising because when JT’s got the irons going very elite iron game. And then Neiman is fifth. So right back. All right. All right. So number one in my filter and opportunities gained drum roll, please. Defending U.S. Open champion at Oakmont, Dustin Johnson. Interesting. Number two, Scotty Scheffler. Number three, our guy, Bud Colley. Mr. Bud Kali. A little interest in Bud Kali. Yeah, a lot of guys here that we’re expecting to talk about. Lowry, Rahm, Morikawa. Yeah, they’re all here. And opportunities gained. It’s the Alex Noren stat. It doesn’t mean a whole lot until it does. But… Yeah, I was interested. So yeah, Scotty Scheffler number two, shocker. Yeah, like I said, I mean, I’m just using it to try and narrow that gap a little bit. Because you can look at approach game across all these guys and find the buckets they’re really good in. But what you can’t find is that metric, how close they’re actually hitting it to the pin. And so that’s what I’m using it for. I’m not using it as intended, which is to rate how often we’re looking at birdie. I’m just looking at how close we can hit it. All right. Well, let’s bet on some golf. U.S. Open style. Let’s bet on some carnage. You ready? Ready. Club twirls. I think we got to update our things. Like I know you got some new lumber. I got some new lumber. I hit one. I hit one three, eighteen on Sunday. So the old boy still off the sprinkler head down the cart path downwind. Dude, when you get two hundred and forty five pounds going in one direction with a tailwind pool, look out world. Yeah. I feel you. I know exactly what it is. Just add fifty to that and that’s how much weight I put behind it. And you’re younger than me, so I can only imagine. Much younger, much more flexible. I think we still have a pair of great golf swings, honestly. My swing hasn’t changed much, although, yes, the lumber has changed. And I was hitting balls farther, carrying them farther with my new driver off the toe than I could do with my sweet spot on my previous stick. So we’re excited for summer when the weather warms up and the fairways get hot. The ball’s going to be rolling. Yep. You give me, you give me every bet, like every sort of advantage possible. Oh yeah. We’re over three hundred. We can do it. Just a bear. All right. Betting on golf. Scotty Scheffler. Some guy named Scotty Scheffler. Is it plus two seventy? And we normally say, yeah, go ahead and bet Scotty Scheffler because he wins all the time. But this week, are we doing it? Is this Scotty Scheffler’s golf course? Is this his tournament to win? A lot of people will say yes. I’m hesitant to bet on him because I look at Oakmont, and yes, Scotty Scheffler, good off the tee, amazing on approach, but three-putt avoidance, not great. His approach on the shorter distances, not as good. He’s not the longest hitter, which will be an advantage here, and he’s seventh in putting on fast greens. So we’ve seen him put on moderate greens and slow greens and, and he’s eighth on tour and strokes game putting overall, which makes it extremely difficult to beat him at anything. But we’re talking about very fast, very difficult greens to read. He’s not the best greens reader. I think Ted Scott’s better at reading greens than he is, but he doesn’t let Ted come in very often. No, and that’s the most frustrating thing. I don’t know how much of the show last week you caught, but Keith and I were actually talking about this a little bit because I made the comment that Scottie was rolling the ball exceedingly well. And Keith’s counterpoint was, well, he wasn’t making anything. I said, essentially, that’s not what I said. What I said was, Scottie is rolling the ball really well. And to your point, if we could just… The hole looks big for Scottie. He’s rolling it so well right now. It’s arguably the best I’ve seen Scottie roll the putter in… Maybe ever. But that is the problem, though, is he doesn’t read the putt well. Like, the stroke’s great. The roll of the ball is great. Everything is looking so much better than it was even six months ago. But, yeah, if we don’t get a little better greens reading out of him, this is not a course where you can burn edges and get away with it. Like, the ball’s going to be eight, nine, ten feet past the hole if you’re doing that. Right. And that’s the one thing Scottie does have is the ability to place the ball on approach to the below the hole where he’s left with uphill makeable birdie putts. And he puts himself in position for more of those than anybody else. So if Scottie’s good off the tee this week, he might not be beatable. But if he’s a little bit off, everybody’s back in play here. And at plus two seventy, I just can’t justify it. so I am gonna do it um I got him I’m gonna do it watch me do it again I I I got him I got him at um and I I’m not saying that that’s a good number by any stretch it’s not but it’s got each other field of elite players right but yeah but here’s the thing like when you look at statistical analysis of scotty scheffler like he finds a way to get it done every week he is there in my mind there’s little or no debate left at least on this season like I’ll bang the drum for rory whenever I can about being the best player in the world but the reality is right now scotty scheffler is just eclipsing everyone and so I think it’s almost it’s almost silly not to take it right like yeah um because the chances are the way the carnage is going to play out at this course, like even a live bet on Scotty, isn’t going to be substantially better. So if you like, if you like Scotty, the way I do this week, I say, go ahead and get in on him. He’s he’s at two seventy five right now at DK. So it hasn’t slipped a ton, but it’s going to stay right there. And it’s we’re a long ways away from negative odds that we got on Tiger Woods between two thousand and two thousand and six. Scotty Scheffler still giving us plus money to win and he’s winning two Pretty much half the tournaments he’s been in and for four of his last six. It’s scary out there for the whole PGA Tour. All the live guys coming into the majors. They’re scared, too, because Scotty is the guy. He is the guy. And it’s not even close right now with Rory struggles. I still like Rory’s number. He’s going out plus twelve hundred on DK right now. I love Rory at that price. We’re getting scared money on the books right now because Rory went plus nine in Canada last week. Scared money is my money. I wonder if Rory gets even deeper because of what’s going on with Bryson and Rom. I like, I wonder if you wait this out a little bit, if we start getting closer to like that plus fifteen hundred mark for Rory. Because we were getting Rom at fourteen to one. Now he’s at twelve and we were getting Bryson at twelve and now he’s a plus seven fifty. So obviously we’re having to make a judgment call on value on obviously your co-favorite here, Bryson DeChambeau, who bomb bomber specialists like Rory, but accuracy wise off the tee, Rory’s got Bryson edged out easily in driving accuracy, which I think is much more important than distance this week. Distance helps, but only if you’re in the short grass this week, because nobody’s going for the green from a green, from a fairway bunker or fair off the rough in the fair off the fair. You can’t reach the green, no matter how strong you are. There’s there’s your, you are looking for short grass to make a better score on that hole. If you miss the fairway, The only argument I would make in favor of Bryson this week has nothing to do with the power. It has everything to do with the fact that Bryson can be very calculated about how he plays a golf course. And my hope is that we get that version of Bryson that comes out and doesn’t try to overpower the place, but tries to play it like the mad scientist that he is. Yeah. Because the Bryson that’s thirteenth in bogey avoidance in my model, that’s the good Bryson. And that’s the reality is like if Bryson tries to overpower this place, Bryson is not going to be sniffing anywhere atop that leaderboard. But we know there’s two versions of them. And I’m hopeful that we get the mad scientist and we don’t get the Hulk. Yeah. Well, so I like Rom. I liked Rom at fourteen to one where I got him. He’s going to get shorter and shorter because Rom is that he was a teenager when he came here in twenty sixteen and finished top thirty as a teenage amateur. This golf course is a John Rahm golf course, long and straight off the tee, fast greens. He’s just got that killer instinct that Cam Young and Tommy Fleetwood don’t have. Can he be frustrated and completely bomb out of this thing? Of course, because it’s John Rahm. If we get good John Rahm, he can absolutely win this tournament going away. And at fourteen to one, I’m willing to take that risk, just like I am with Rory playing like. horrible garbage right now. Rory McIlroy, twelve to one is Rory McIlroy. I’m going to bet on every single time because it’s still that guy. He can still let it click in a moment’s notice. And then you have major competitive level elite golfer. Rahm and Rory, that’s where I’m going. Those are the two guys I’m betting on at the top of this board. Yeah, I think. So I’m definitely going Rory. I snagged him at the plus twelve hundred. You are going for the Rory. Well, here’s the thing. I had talked myself out of it completely. But when then I brought you back in. Well, I saw the juxtaposition that happened with the odds and I was like, I can’t not bet Rory at double digit odds. And to be honest, I’m expecting it to go a little bit longer yet, and I’ll probably double back down on it. But but so I think with ROM, what what actually piques my interest a little bit is especially for the weekend, if ROM can put together a couple of good rounds Thursday, Friday. when we get into that weekend where we’re we’ve got a little stronger wind etc like rom with that short compact low penetrating driver that he can hit um yep I I think I think rom is very very alive here depending on how the weather goes as of right now I think I think he’s definitely competing come sunday because I I know what the weather is supposed to do um but rom is super volatile I mean if rom has a couple bad shots on thursday it’s over he may not get himself to the weekend but we don’t talk as much as we used to about ball flight and about swing mechanics but um you know this is a situation where it’s it’s worth calling out because rom has a kind of a unique uh swing that lends itself to playing pretty well if conditions get windy Speaking of guys who do not play well in the wind or under pressure, or if there’s anything going against perfect conditions, Colin Morikawa rates out very, very high in both of our models. Twenty five to one seems an extremely long odds for a guy of his caliber. Can we do it, though? Can we bet on Colin Morikawa to win a major when he hasn’t done anything in three years? Colin Morikawa cannot putt like it’s true. Like, it’s just, I’m just calling it what it is. The guy can’t putt. I mean, he has moments of brilliance, but you just can’t count on him to do it. And you certainly can’t count on him to do it for four rounds. Conversely, on fast and lightning fast greens, Colin Markow is thirty-fourth in strokes gained putting over his last twenty-four and fourth in three putt avoidance. Do with that what you may. Not many of these rounds that are in the twenty four rounds that I’m filtering for are at Oakmont in the US Open. Actually, none of them are. So I think we have to say, OK, stats versus can we picture a guy who has shown zero clutch gene in three years? to actually pull this off for us at twenty five to one. I’m a little shaky. He’s on an obscene putting streak right now. And just to be clear, clear what that equates to for Colin Morikawa is a half a stroke gained like. And that’s crazy because he’s one of the straightest guys off the tee. He’s one of the best approach players in the world. But. God, man, just give him some putts. Like, see him go in. Seeing something go in on fast greens, he seems to be more comfortable. It’s just, like, this dude cannot figure it out on the greens in majors, especially. Like, Olympic Club, that was three years ago, and it’s, like, it’s a long time ago. It feels like it was a million years ago where Colin was making everything at Olympic Club. Shout out, NorCal. Yeah, I mean, there’s… There’s some work to do there. I like the number more than I like the guy. You love Tommy Fleetwood. I need to move on from Colin because he’s just ticking me off. But Tommy Fleetwood, you’re going to tick me off because you’re going to say, oh, Tommy Fleetwood’s going to win his first ever tournament in the history of the world at Oakmont in the US Open. Well, the first thing I’m going to say is I like Neiman at thirty better than Waste of Money on Morikawa. So we already talked about Neiman a little bit. I’ll rubber stamp that. That’s that’s fine. but uh yeah with Fleetwood look I mean here’s the thing and I said this to you last time we got an argument about Fleetwood which I always win because he never wins what what an indefensible position you put me in with that commentary um but like the reality is this is Tommy Fleetwood has what forty two forty one forty two top ten finishes now And it is noteworthy that his odds of top ten this week are plus two forty. I’m still not interested this week, but you could convince me that on a grinder type golf course that he could finish top ten and he would pay you good money for it. Is he going to be top five here? No. Is he going to win here? Absolutely not. I think he has a good shot at winning here. And I think that mostly because of like, it’s actually not the par fives. It’s not the par threes, but it has everything to do with the proximities for the shorter par fours. Right. I said that there was going to be a lot of holes that offered golfers reprieve. And those are Tommy’s actual like sweet spots. And so on a, again, I like Tommy in a situation that requires grinding. that we don’t have to go super low. And as the weather gets worse, Tommy gets better. Like there’s just a lot of things lining up for Tommy this week. And like, dude, I hate on Tommy all you want for not winning. But the reality is anybody that’s in the top ten as frequently as Tommy is, especially with the stroke, like from first to tenth in a lot of these tournaments, we’re talking about a couple strokes. And Tommy Fleetwood can absolutely make up a couple strokes just on Saturday when the weather is horrible. Fast greens, difficult conditions. Tommy Fleetwood, one hundred twenty second strokes game putting. That’s why he loses. I’m not worried about Tommy Fleetwood strokes game putting, and I’m not worried about his strokes game putting because over this last two starts, he’s gained almost four strokes average. Like the guy is putting really well right now. As a matter of fact, he’s only lost strokes putting once in his last five starts. So like he’s gaining more strokes right now, putting than he’s gained in his last one hundred and forty seven rounds of golf. Like, yeah, the putter looks good, man. Like this is this is a good setup for Tommy Fleetwood. Well, at longer odds, and a guy who has also gotten flack for not finishing tournaments, including the twenty sixteen U.S. Open at Oakmont, is one Shane Lowry, who, depending on the book, between forty five to one and fifty to one, I would take him a million times out of a million over Tommy Fleetwood, even odds. And he’s getting much longer odds and honestly should have won here in twenty sixteen. He should have won a lot of tournaments in between now and then because he’s simply elite from tea to green. And he’s just like Tommy, similar to Tommy, kind of lost his way at finishing tournaments. He’s won plenty. He’s won majors before. This is this is a Shane Lowry week for me. Fifty to one where I got him. That’s a green flag full ladder bet for me. Yeah, the Irish pride in Ben Rory, right? At double digits. I’m afraid of missing out. But with Shane Lowry, the odds actually seem almost insulting. What? Fifty to one for Shane Lowry? He’s playing really well this year. He’s playing great golf this year. And again, another situation where grinding it out, adverse conditions. Let the weather get nasty because Shane’s going to the top. These are typically things that, yeah, exactly, just propel him upwards. You know, if there’s a knock on him, it’s, it’s truly that like, he doesn’t, he doesn’t usually tend to fare very well on longer approach metrics. So like the par fives are going to be a moot point for him. But where he balances that really nicely, very similar to Tommy Fleetwood, is on par four scoring, Lowry’s in the top ten. And when you break it down more to the actual distances that we’re looking at on the majority of these par fours, the bucket is great. And the scoring rate on those yardage is also great. Yeah. Lowry is seventh in my modeling, and we’re full steam ahead. Yeah, he’s a good play this week. Amazing play at the odds. We got to keep moving through this board. Do you have anybody else in that mid-range? In that mid-range, got a lot of interest in stuff. Straka at fifty to one as well. Are you worried about his short game? His short game scares me. He’s very accurate. I’ll give him that. So the putting doesn’t scare me. No, no, no. Eighteenth in three putt avoidance, nineteenth overall in putting. Fairways gained twelfth. Greens in regulation gained third. Opportunities gained third. Bogey avoidance fifth. Third in overall approach over the last thirty-six. He’s similar to Shane Lowry, though. Par five scoring is going to be a challenge for him here, especially with the length. So that’s the risk. But a fifty to one for a guy who’s won twice on tour and followed up his last win with a third place finish. Yeah. Number one, fifty two around the green. So that’s that’s a nonstarter for me on Sepp Straka. The around the green game doesn’t bother me as much this week because it’s such a it’s such an anomaly. Like the around the green game here is different than anywhere else on tour. It is. It’s tougher. But it’s an equalizer. Even good guys struggle around the green. I think the bad guys are going to struggle way more than the good guys are. Let’s see here. I’m going to go down to our guys who broke our heart last week. Sam Burns, ninety to one. I’m going all in on Sam Burns because he puts the lights out and his approach game is much improved, especially Sunday where he shot sixty to his approach game was dialed in. You’re rolling in everything until he got to the playoff. I made everything he saw until he got to the playoff against Ryan Fox, then forgot how to, how to finish. But Sam Burns at ninety to one, I’m going all I’m going crazy on Sam Burns at that number. He’s so hot right now. Yeah, I’m not going to back off Sam Burns. I’m only showing him at eighty. So good on you for getting him at ninety. But yeah, I like Sam Burns. I really, really like the top ten number at four hundred too. So that’s so that’s so sexy. Yeah. Guy that I’ll just mention quickly, statistically, probably not a whole lot to back it up, but Patty Reed at a hundred to one. Getting into a little longer shots here. Grinder and great short game. So yeah, Patrick Reed. And guess what? There’s only one comp course for Oakmont and it’s Augusta national where Patty Reed typically plays pretty well. Short game plays everywhere. Yeah. So a lot, a lot of interest in Patrick Reed and also in light DFS, he’s reasonably priced. So yeah. He’s just kind of a nice piece to a lineup. All righty. Moving down. I have Keegan Bradley, captain America hasn’t done well in us opens, but he, he does have the tee to green game to play well here. If he can make any putts at all, we’re looking at pretty good number on Keegan and I’ll round out with a guy. I know we agree on Denny McCarthy, pride of Montgomery County, Maryland, Denny, my guy, the quintessential grinder, amazing us open history. One of the, yeah, represent the DMV, uh, Danny McCarthy, a hundred and fifty to one hit the full ladder on that because this guy is a grinder. Incredible short game. Incredible putter. If he can get off the tee accurately this week, he is going to be in contention. Yeah, zero argument for me. And like Denny McCarthy is the type of guy that goes back to that more plotting methodology that I was talking about, Bryce, and maybe being able to employ here. And so Denny, Denny’s pretty live, I think, with the overall accuracy that he has. Very controlled on off the tee and on approach. And yeah, I mean, world class putter. So a great number on Denny. Definitely going to hammer that one. And then the other guy I was going to mention down in that range scrolling is Matt McCarty. Oh, yeah. This guy’s been under the radar playing pretty well this year. And not only that, but you just called it out. And he had a fourteenth place finish at Augusta. He is four hundred to one in this tournament. Boom. And a lot of things I like about him. Great McCarty. Yeah. McCarty’s going in my DFS lineup. That’s a spoiler alert. Oh, yeah. Hammering it. Fifty seven hundred dollars on on DK. But what I think goes overlooked with him is we know he’s a world-class putter, but long par threes, he is seventh in this field. So I rated out to twenty five plus par threes, which aren’t a ton on tour, probably limited sample size here, but he did rate out seventh on that. And then the proximity bucket from one hundred and twenty five to one fifty and in he’s in the top thirty in that range, which is going to cover a significant amount of the par fours based on the driving prowess. So I think I really, really like what McCarty has to offer at this course. And to your point, Bo just been playing really good golf. He’s had a couple of missed cuts, which I think is really driving his price down. And you know, fourteenth of the Masters followed up with a fifteenth at the CJ Cup. Before that, he had a sixteenth at the Valspar. That’s good stuff. Yeah, he’s playing solid. He’s just as consistent as Tommy Fleetwood. I mean, I wouldn’t go that far, but He’s not as consistently good, but he’s very consistent. Yeah. So, I mean, that’s a deep shot. I’ll have a couple more of my article this week, but, but yeah, that’s, that’s probably the one I would leave you on. All right. You have the hat ready. I got to get the hat part on. So while you’re getting the hat, think about winning score and who’s going to take this thing. The hat has arrived. Sound off in the comments if you want to take a gander at what the winning score is going to be. Dude, there’s no way. What’s the number? Thirteen. Lucky thirteen. I don’t like my thirteen this week. Rory McIlroy. Seems good. My number thirteen, shout out NorCal Maverick McNeely. I don’t hate that. I don’t hate it. I just don’t like it as much as everybody around him. Bryson is my twelve. Hideki’s my fifteen. Xander’s my sixteen. I got all these great guys surrounded around thirteen, but Mav is thirteen on my model. Look at me influencing people. Burke’s all in on Fleetwood. You guys are just flushing money. Who’s winning this thing? I kind of think Scotty or, but it’s okay to say Scotty. I know I’m, I’m going to, I’m going to ride with it. I’m going to say Tommy Fleetwood and I’m going to say, I’m going to say four under four under. I’m going to say four under. It’s a DJ shot. There’s no chance. So I would say if Tommy was going to win, I would say it would be a plus eight winning score because that’s the only chance he’s got. I’m going to say the winning score would be plus four and it’ll be Shane Lowry. I do like Shane Lowry. I was really torn. Plus four, not minus four. Minus four ain’t happening this week. I think minus four is happening. Thursday, Thursday, Friday are supposed to be awesome. Yeah. Awesome means your leader is going to be minus one. Maybe we’ll see. We will see. Carnage. Join us next week for the nineteenth hole live as always on in between media and on the radio in West Tennessee. Shout out Memphis. Join us.