In this episode Caden goes over this weeks PGA tournament, the RBC Canadian Open, giving his best bets and plays for the week.
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Welcome back to Statistical Swinging, a production of the InTouch Ball podcast, previewing another golf tournament. This week we got the RBC Canadian Open coming up. Before that though, let’s look at what our results were for last week. We didn’t have anything on Scotty Sheffer. He went out dominated that tournament really the last two days really coming in putting on a show to win his fourth tournament of the year and his eighth consecutive top 10. He’s not competing this week so we don’t have to worry about anything with Scotty. Also with last week we were able to cash Straa top 10 and Taylor Pendre top 20. We were just a shot off of getting Pendrith in that top 10. Mraco was in it for a little bit trying to compete for that title. Just a little slow start to the week. Maybe really kept him out of contention there. Still got him inside that top 10 though. We miss out on Bazoon Hoot and High Smith who missed the cut. And then Denny McCarthy played a really good first two days. Was really in the thick of it. Had a good chance. He could have stuck himself his way into that top 10 for us. Unfortunately over the weekend he played some really bad golf. finished really. They’re like right there at the bottom of the players that actually did make the cut. So, in total on that week, we’re down uh 15th unit there. Um so, nothing crazy, nothing bad, like about a break even tournament. We hope to do better. We are going to do better this weekend. And with this weekend, with this tournament here at the RBC Canadian Open, it’ll be held at TPC Toronto in Osprey Valley in Kaladon, Ontario. It’s a 7,389 yard par 70. So, we’re putting more into the extreme than this week. You need to be good with your irons, be able to hit greens, be good with the putter. Not only that, this tournament, not this tournament, but the course is unfamiliar to most of the players in this field. TPC Toronto has not been used as a PGA uh course yet in its lifespan. So, we haven’t seen many players in this field. They haven’t even really played this course before. So, we’re gonna see a lot of newcomers coming to this and just their experience at this course. So, whether it’s your 15th year on tour or second, you got about the same experience when it comes to this course in particular. The favorite in this tournament is Rory Mroy. And kind of like with Scotty last year, we or last week, we don’t have anything with Rory in this tournament. I know it hopefully it doesn’t bite us in the butt like Scotty did last week where he just went in and cruised to that victory over at Mirrorfield, but Rory, he’s ever since the Masters, he’s not been playing uh up to his level, especially that we saw earlier this year, whether it be at Pebble Beach or at Augusta. And he took off last week at Jack’s place with the Memorial. So, this is going to be like a tuneup tournament for Rory before the US Open next week at Oakmont. It seems like, at least in my eyes, we’re not going to be see Roy. He’s more just making sure the game’s all good, everything’s all right before the major. Not like he’s going to be ultra aggressive, pushing for this uh trophy. And we have seen his iron play has slowed down ever since that Augusta victory as well. He he’s lost a couple strokes each tournament since then with his iron play. And so we don’t have anything with Rory. He is the favorite at plus 450. We don’t got anything with him. We got some names here. top tens, top 20s, and we got a couple other winner flyers. Like I don’t think I said this last week, but on all my tens and 20s, I do put a full unit on all of those. Maybe a little more if I’m really liking it. And then with winners, I’m only throwing two fifths of a unit, point4 units on there. Go doing nothing crazy in there because I mean, it’s a winner. That’s very hard to, you know, kind of look at and predict for a golf tournament. So, starting off with our bets for this week at the RBC Canadian Open, we have Sam Burns. I have him top 20 at plus 125 and top 10 at plus 250. Sam Burns is in the midst of the best stretch of his career right now. We’re in his last five starts. He has four top 10s. That includes another top 10 last week at Mirrorfield where in that uh tournament on Friday he had the second best round of his career in terms of strokes gained where in that round he gained 8.01 strokes. So, not only that, piled on top of the four top ends. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career right now and on a course that no one knows, putting is going to be important. People aren’t going to know the right misses or the right exact right parts of the greens when it’s a very unfamiliar course for all them that Sam Burns is first on the tour this year in strokes gained putting. So, to get him on those greens, as long as he’s around those greens, he’s going to be one of the best putters we have on the field. He’s leading the tour in strokes gained with the putter right now with that flat stick. And I think we’re going to be in for a very good week of Sam Burns here. Maybe we see him break into the winner circle. I don’t have a winner’s ticket on Sam Burns, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him competing down the stretch on Sunday. The next player we do have is one of my flyers to win. It’s Shane Lowry. It’s I have him top 10 at plus 190. And then like I said about point4 units on him to win at plus 2200. Shane Lowry this year has nine top 25s in 13 starts. That includes four top 10s and two runner ups. He’s one of only a handful of players in this field that do have multiple PGA tour wins. He has three of them. And he’s been trying to break back into the circle this season like I said where he has two runner ups as well this year. Shane Lowry is playing some amazing golf as of right now. And not only that, he’s third on the PGA Tour this season in approach shots and strokes gained like on approach. So, we’re seeing Lowry when after the T- shot, he’s been one of the best on tour and getting there getting there up around the greens or on the greens, green in regs. that this could be where we finally see Shane Lowry break through, get back into that winter circle right on time before the US Open and then the British Open and right around his homeland of Ireland in just about a month. So Shane Lowry playing some of his best golf. I think this could be where we see him not only finish in top 10, but get back into that winner circle. So I have him at top 10 at plus 190 and then to win at plus 2200. The next call for we have is a little bit of a uh home country pick where I have Mackenzie Hughes. I have him top 20 at plus 160. Well, he might be a little inconsistent with his game this year. He does have three top 10s in his last nine starts. It does also include a couple missed cuts around there, but with him he’s being a Canadian. What even though this isn’t his home part of Canada, all of these Canadians, no matter where they are in this picture, they take the RBC Canadian Open very seriously. All of these want to win, put on in front of their home country, in front of their home fans. This could be a big week for Mackenzie where like I said, three top 10s in his last nine starts. And in this tournament last year, he was tied second going into that Sunday round. Ended up finishing in a tied for seventh. So in Canada, Mackenzie Hughes has been showing up. Already has a top 10 in this tournament last year, albeit at a different course, but still a top 10. And he’s going to be playing hard. try to put on for that country. So, while I might not be as as aggressive as some putting Mackenzie Hughes top 10, top five, I do like him top 20 here at plus60. 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That’s why we don’t also see me stacking top 10 in here as well because while he might be playing really good one week, you don’t know what you’re getting dayto day week to week with Eric Van Ruin. But one thing to note with him and that’s going to be really good just four weeks ago at the CJ Cup at Byron Nelson when Scotty Sheffller dominated to that victory. Van Ruin finished second. He finished second in that tournament just four weeks ago. And then just a couple days ago on the longest day of golf, the US Open qualifier, 36 holes, one day, Van Ruin cruised to winning his winning his qualifier, not just qualifying to the US Open. He won his group, his course, the US Open qualifier by six shots. Dominated that field, 36 holes one day. So he’s feeling it right now. He’s feeling some of his best golf and when you’re hot, you’re hot. So, Van Ruin top 20 I like at plus 300. I think that’s great odds. And then while with how good he’s playing right now, yeah, I’m throwing a fly on him to win at plus 90,000. Just just like before yesterday, before he went off, he was plus 100,000 to win the tournament. And then he goes off. Yeah, because I’m recording this on a Tuesday night. just yesterday he was plus 100,000 to win the tournament. So we already saw it take a big jump. I still think at plus 90,000 it’s worth a flyer. It is 100% worth a flyer. And then the last and final player I like in this this week’s field is Cameron Young inside the top 20 at plus 210. Cameron Young has been a little inconsistent with his finishes on tour right here, but something that I think bodess well for him going into this weekend is he has a couple stats really in his favor. Uh Cameron Young this year is second on tour in strokes gained off the tea. He’s one of the longest hitters we have on tour. Not only that, he’s finding fairways, finding great spots to miss where it might be the shortcut, edge of the fairway, or he’s been one of the most consistent drivers on tour. That’s going to be great again for a unfamiliar course. Not only that, he’s 21st in proximity to hole on his approach shots. So, he’s a top 25 in these approach shots, getting it closest to the hole. And then on top of that, while he’s second in strokes gained, 21st proximity to hold, 15th on tour in strokes gain t to green. So not only can he be long off the tea, he’s hitting those good shots onto the green and is and when he gets to the green, he’s 12th on tour on putts per green in regulation. So when he’s reaching stock, he’s getting there two putting everything, maybe throwing in a three putt. No, he’s 12th on tour this season on putting when it come when when it comes to putts per green and rag. He’s been one of the better putters on tour this season. And then to throw that on top with the putting, he’s third this season on converting greens and regs to par breakers. Whether that be Eagles or birdies, he’s third on tour this year. And when he’s getting these greens and reds, finding one putts or if it’s if it’s a par five, maybe getting there in two, two putting four birds getting these red numbers. Well, yeah, he might be a little accustomed to maybe a blow up here or there, a bad couple stretches of holes. I like what all these numbers are telling us with Cameron Young. I’m I’mma throw it out once again. Yes, it’s a very unfamiliar golf course for most of these golfers. So if Cameron Young’s able to be one of the best in the field off the tee and then one of the best in the field as well on te to green and then putting he’s going to be one of the best. Well, I don’t have him top 10. I don’t have maybe a winners flyer as some people might have. I think if you get him top 20 at plus 210, I think that’s great odds to see Cameron Young because I think we could very well see him maybe push inside that top 10. I’m not going to have a ticket on them top 10, but I would not be surprised whatsoever if we see a very big week out of Cameron Young. So, like we did last week where I threw out some of my favorite plays out of everything I’m giving out, I’m going to do that again. I have a two favorite plays here and then we we’ll give a full recap before. So, my first one is Sam Burns inside the top 20 at plus 125. Kind of like what I was saying, he has four top 10s in his last five starts. Has his first and two on strokes game putting. I think all this bodess well for Sam Burns going into RBC Canadian Open. Maybe try to pile on another top 20, top 10 finish before going into the US Open. And then my other favorite play for this week is the one we just talked about with Cameron Young inside the top 20. I mean, I’m not going to redo resay all the stats I just said, but he’s going to be one of the best in this field off the T Green and then be one of the best putters we have in this field as well. Yeah, Cameron Young at top 20 at plus 210. I think that’s just I’m just licking my chops, especially looking at those odds. So, yeah, before we go, we’re going to go through all these plays that we do have this week for the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Ontario at Osprey Valley. Once again, it’s just shy of 7,400 yards and it’s a par 70. So, we’re going to have a couple of extra of these par fives to see these players find some extra birdies or maybe even Eagles. So, yeah, all the plays we do have for this weekend is Sam Burns top 20 at plus 125 and top 10 at plus 250. Shane Lowry top 10 at plus 190. We’re going to sprinkle on him to win at plus 2,200 as well. Then also inside the top 20, we have McKenzie Hughes, the Canadian, gonna put it on in front of his own crowd. Compete for the championship here, but make sure to finish inside the top 20. Then we have Eric Van Ruin. Kind of a popular like golf watcher pick for this week is Eric Van Ruin to have a good week. I’m with it as well. We have him top 20 at plus 300. We’re throwing a flyer on him to win at plus 90,000. plus 90,000 for Eric Van Ruin to win this week. And then the final play, probably my favorite play even over that Sam Burns top 20 is Cameron Young top 20 plus 210. I think he’s in for a great great weekend here in Canada. Once again, we don’t have anything with Rory Mroy. I know he is the favorite looking like he can come in and dominate. He’s played very well in Canada in his career. Four for four in make cuts. Has won a tournament in Canada. has a couple other top 10s. He’s been a very good player when it comes to these Canada tournaments. I just don’t see it this week with Rory. I think either Shane Lowry, Eric Van Ruin, maybe even like a Sam Burns or something is going to find their way into getting a victory this weekend at the RBC Canadian Open. Either way, I hope it’s a very exciting weekend of golf. I hope all you guys enjoy this weekend of golf as we’re just one week away from the third major of the US Open. We’re going to have a big pod next week breaking this down. Maybe bring on a guest or two to see what everyone’s thoughts are for the US Open. But until then, this is the RBC Canadian Open. We got some big stuff coming up for this weekend. If you guys did enjoy this episode, make sure to leave a like down below. Turn on post notifications so you never miss an upload. Leave a comment. Who do you like going into this weekend? Am I stupid for fading Rory like I was for fading Scotty last week? Can someone like Eric Van Ruin continue this house or maybe turn up a dub here at the RBC Canadian Open? Share this with your fans, family, strangers, neighbors, anything like that. Make sure to check out the main episodes of the InTouch podcast as well. Thank you all for listening and we hope to see you next time. [Music]
