Memorial Tournament Winner Predictions – Analysis from Dave Essler & Sleepy J
🎯 Conclusion
Both Sleepy J and Dave Essler target mid-tier and value bets for potential winners at the Memorial Tournament, with their selections emphasizing course fit, form trends, and advantageous conditions. Sleepy J nominates Justin Thomas (18:1), Keegan Bradley (50:1), and Sungjae Im (60:1), citing Bradley’s iron play and venue familiarity, and Im’s volatility tempered by recent form. Dave Essler counters with Sepp Straka (40:1), Hideki Matsuyama (35:1), and Victor Hovland (45:1), leaning on Straka’s accuracy and past contention, Matsuyama’s short game, and Hovland’s ideal tee times in relation to forecasted weather. The speakers’ insights revolve around expected weather impact, statistical strengths, and recent performances, all timestamped and analyzed thoroughly.
🔑 Key Points
🎯 Justin Thomas at 18:1: Considered a “chalky” but reliable pick by Sleepy J due to consistently solid form
📊 Keegan Bradley at 50:1: Sleepy J highlights Bradley’s improved putting, excellent iron play, and familiarity with the course, alongside a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship
⚙️ Sungjae Im at 60:1: Cited by Sleepy J as a volatile but promising pick, with notable recent finishes including 5th at the Masters
🧠 Sepp Straka at 40:1: Dave Essler emphasizes Straka’s accuracy off the tee and high strokes gained on approach; notes his strong showing at this event last year
📉 Hideki Matsuyama at 35:1: Despite recent struggles, Essler values Matsuyama’s scrambling skills and improved putting
📆 Victor Hovland at 45:1: Essler praises Hovland’s advantageous tee times, potentially avoiding rain interruptions, and his current form
🔁 Course history: Both Bradley and Matsuyama have strong history at the venue, influencing their pick weight
🌦️ Weather factor: Tee time strategy discussed by Essler with emphasis on avoiding rain delays—especially relevant for Hovland
⛳ Field familiarity: Keegan Bradley’s dozen+ appearances at the Memorial aid Sleepy J’s confidence
🧪 Statistical trends: Players’ improvements in putting, approach shots, and scrambling were core decision metrics
📘 Summary
Sleepy J’s Opening Picks (0:00 – 2:28)
Sleepy J begins by listing three potential winners. Justin Thomas is selected off the cuff for his reliable form despite being a more obvious bet. He then details two value picks: Keegan Bradley and Sungjae Im. Bradley is lauded for his iron accuracy and recent eighth-place finish at the PGA, while Sungjae’s recent performance—5th at the Masters and 23rd at a course new to him—shows potential if all aspects of his game align.
Keegan Bradley Analysis
Bradley has improved his traditionally weak putting and performs particularly well at the Memorial venue. With over twelve appearances here, his course familiarity and recent strong finish at the PGA Championship bolster his credentials. Sleepy emphasizes Bradley’s balanced game and positions him as a strong underdog with potential.
Sungjae Im Assessment
Although inconsistent, Im is described as a high-upside player when his game clicks. His fifth-place at Augusta and solid finish at a new course suggest readiness. Rest from the previous week and trackable improvements hint at a timely peak.
Dave Essler’s Commentary (2:28 – 5:07)
Essler jokingly predicts bad outcomes for Bradley and Im but moves to his top pick: Sepp Straka. Straka’s strengths are a top approach game and strong performance last year when he was tied for the lead after 54 holes, derailed only by severe weather.
Sepp Straka Deep Dive
Ranked second in strokes gained on approach, Straka’s consistent accuracy makes him ideal for the Memorial’s setup. Last year’s Sunday meltdown was attributed to extreme weather, giving context to what might otherwise look like a collapse.
Hideki Matsuyama Consideration
Though burned by him before, Essler likes Matsuyama’s scrambling (3rd overall), recent improvements in putting, and a decent showing at this venue last year. His weakness off the tee is deemed manageable, and the odds present value.
Victor Hovland’s Weather-Adjusted Value
Hovland’s solid form and excellent Thursday/Friday tee times could give him a weather advantage. Essler anticipates scheduling shifts due to rain and thinks Hovland could either avoid interruptions or benefit from them.
Weather Insight
While not a meteorologist, Essler uses forecasts to determine that mid-morning to early afternoon tee times may dodge potential storms. This timing notably benefits Hovland, making him a strategic pick.
Speaker Synergy
Interestingly, two of Sleepy’s win picks overlap with Essler’s first-round leader choices, indicating a shared belief in early strong performances by Bradley and Sungjae.
Final Odds and Picks Recap
Sleepy J: Justin Thomas (18:1), Keegan Bradley (50:1), Sungjae Im (60:1)
Dave Essler: Sepp Straka (40:1), Hideki Matsuyama (35:1), Victor Hovland (45:1)
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Let’s go ahead. Let’s jump into our winners. Uncle Dave, I’ll go first with this one. Like I said, it might be a little bit interesting as we get further on down the card. So, I have two guys here that I have write ups for and I have one that I don’t. So, let me give you the guy that I don’t have a write up for and that’s Justin Thomas at 18 to1. Uh, I guess I could just go off the cuff with this one. Like I said, JT’s just been really solid and I really wanted to go ahead and and look for a jockey type of guy, but a guy that can win. I think that’s JT. Now, here’s the two guys I do have right absor. Interesting enough, it’s the two guys that Uncle Dave has as his first round leaders. I have Keegan Bradley at 50 to1 to go ahead and win this one. Keegan’s issue has always been his putter, but he’s gotten much, much better with that. And for some reason or another, this venue is one of the better places that Keegan goes ahead and breaks out his putter. His putting the last four visits that he’s been here has actually been really good. And his irons right now are in a great place. His distance and accuracy is very good. He knows this place really well. You know, the fact that he’s been here more than a dozen times. Took last week off. Had a great finish there at the PGA Championship, finishing eighth. Keegan’s just having one of his better years. And I think he is a sneaky pick here to go ahead and win this week. So, I hope Uncle Dave’s ready. I hope he starts out fast right out of the gate. So, I’m going to play him Uncle Dave at 50 to1. And then I got Sunjm at 60 to1. And look, he’s been hit and miss. I mean, this is no no secret. I mean, sometimes he’s on, sometimes he’s off. But, you know, when Sunj is on, the guy just seems to go ahead and finish really really well. He’s another guy that took last week off and he has some good finishes this year. You know, when you probably think that that he wouldn’t have good finishes. The fifth at the Masters was impressive. Uh 23 at the Truist, the course that that he’s never been to was was kind of impressive. I think he’s a good long shot pick here. And if this guy’s stuff is working and generally that that’s his issue is it’s one thing or another and then eventually you know if he goes ahead and he can get it together he shows up. So I think you know having last week off and some decent results recently uh that he is a pretty good darkhorse pick. So those are my two winners there Uncle Dave there write ups for the two guys you have as your first round leaders. I got Keegan at 50 to1 J at 60 to1 and then my one chalky pick here I’m going to go ahead I’ll put I’ll throw JT in there at 18 to1. So there’s my winners there, Uncle Dave. I’m sure that’s kind of music to your ears. Yeah, I mean, and vice versa. So that means we should be taking Keegan and Sanjay to Mr. Cut probably. But um my winner, probably my favorite winner of the three I’m going to give you is Sea at 40 to1. I mean, he has totally got the skill set for this course. He’s accurate off the tea, second in shots gained on approach. And last year he was tied for first after 54. And last year on Sunday was a big time weather day. Kind of survival of the fitness. He finished. He shot four over with Scotty shot two over and most people were overpar. I just think there’s no way he should be 40 to one here. Um and this one I almost feel like whispering um Hideki at 35 to1. I mean, you know, I’m still pissed that he missed the cut at the last major and I know I should be taking the once burnt, twice shy approach given that and I’ve used him recently and it’s been costly, but you know, that’s why we get a good price. I mean, you know, he’s not going to stay dead forever. He’s third in scrambling and he was T8 here last year. You know, off the tea has been kind of his weakness, but as I said earlier, I think that can be overcome on this court. His short game is elite. His putting is exponentially better than it has been. He’s actually gaining strokes on the green this year. So I think that’s totally mispriced for his uh his upside. And uh I threw in Victor Harland at 45 to1. I mean I had to I mean you you obviously recent form um but I also uh love his tea times for Thursday and Friday. He’s kind of got you know midm morning and midafter afternoon. So, I think he’s got the um ability obviously, but I think given those tea times and given the weather, I think guys in that, you know, 10:00 a.m., you know, 1:30 p.m. Friday type slot might have an advantage either not having to go out at all before something gets postponed or completing the round before something gets postponed. So that was uh you know that just kind of sealed the deal for me was Victor’s tea times. And obviously again for anybody doing their own work I think that range if I get exactly when he goes off it’s around 10:00 on Thursday. That range could be the sweet spot for guys. We’ll we’ll see. But you know and I as I said I I’m not a meteorologist and I don’t know when this rain’s going to come. Uh, but based on what I read, it is.
