MUST-KNOW Golf Betting Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge 2025 Best Bets & Predictions
The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club is set to tee off, and we’ve got your comprehensive betting preview covered. With World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler entering as the overwhelming favorite at +250 odds, fresh off his PGA Championship victory, the spotlight is firmly on him. However, value can be found deeper in the field.
Daniel Berger, a past winner at Colonial, is priced at 25-1 and is drawing attention from experts due to his consistent ball-striking and recent form. J.T. Poston, coming off a fifth-place finish at the PGA Championship, is another contender to watch at 40-1, boasting a strong track record on similar courses. For those seeking long-shot opportunities, players like Emiliano Grillo (100-1) and Adam Schenk (250-1) present intriguing options, especially considering their familiarity with Texas courses and recent performances.
Weather conditions, including potential thunderstorms and high winds, could play a significant role in this tournament, potentially leveling the playing field and offering opportunities for strategic bets. We’ll delve into these factors, providing insights on top picks, sleepers, and betting strategies to help you make informed decisions.
For detailed analysis, expert picks, and more betting content, visit www.fffaceoff.com.
#CharlesSchwabChallenge #GolfBetting2025 #PGAOdds #BestBets #GolfPredictions #FantasyGolf #SportsBetting #FFFaceoff #ColonialCountryClub #GolfTips
Very happy to be on the mic with all of you watching. Going to be previewing the upcoming PGA Tour event in Fort Worth, Texas. It is the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. Uh this is a tournament that has seen Scotty Sheffller, world number one golfer, uh come close to getting that outright win three years in a row, but uh Sheffller has fallen just short. Now coming off of his first major win at the PGA Championship last week, uh there’s a great opportunity for Sheffler to go on a run. And ironically, he hasn’t won three events on the PGA Tour consecutively through his highly decorated career. So, this is a great opportunity for Sheffer to try to get the latest uh feat under his belt, which would be three straight wins culminating with an outright here at uh the Charles Schwab challenge. Uh this is in Sheffller’s backyard. Uh he’s a resident of Dallas, so of Fort Worth, Dallas. They’re kind of like the Twin Cities there. But um yeah, they’re going back to Texas for the fourth time this season uh on the PGA Tour and uh oddsmakers are going ham on on Sheffller and and there’s no reason not to at this point. The guy is in peak form right now. Uh he’s coming off of a dominant eight-stroke victory that was played in nearby McKenna, Texas at the CJ Cup by Nelson a couple weeks ago. He shot 31 under par. Yeah, you heard that right. 31 under par at the uh breakthrough win in 2025 during the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Uh that was at TPC Craig Ranch. Just a birdie fest. This is going to be a lot different. This is not a birdie fest here at the Charles Schwab challenge. In fact, it’s one of the hardest par 70s on the PGA Tour year in and year out. So, uh yeah, we’re not going to see nearly as much red on the scorecards this week. But if you take a look at the current odds, which I have available right here, the outright market, typically you see a player that’s favored to win between like plus 500 plus 900 depending on who’s in the field. Sheffller was a favorite every single event this season prior to his win. So following these back-to-back wins at CJ Cup Byron Nelson and at the PJ Championship, he’s shortened to the price of plus 240 in the outright market. That is astoundingly short uh for golf betting. You know, in a vacuum you get plus 240 odds. I, you know, personally, I’d be happy. But but from the context of of golf outrights, you know, there’s been guys that have cashed at over 100 to one this year at various events. So getting plus 240 certainly will turn a lot of golf betterers off. But I’m here today with my first best bet to tell you that laying the chalk with Sheffller at plus 240 is a good investment. Now these are all one unit plays I’m providing and I’m starting with the uh outright winning market and focusing on Sheffler as the overwhelming favorite at plus 240 odds. Uh the next closest in the field to Sheffler is Daniel Burgerer who won this event I believe in 2020 2021. Yeah, it was uh five years ago he won this event. He’s 22 to1 plus 2200 odds to win this week at the uh CJ or I’m sorry at the Charles Schwab challenge. That is just insane, man. Uh, another guy who’s a local with a lot of fanfare that has a lot of success at this tournament, Jordan Spe, uh, a big betting favorite relative to the field outside of Sheffler at 25 to1. So, you got Burger at 22 to1, Jordan Speed 25 to1. Both of those guys have won this event, but it’s been a number of years since that happened. Hideki Matsyama is also 25 to1 with Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tours, so I don’t really put a lot of emphasis on on him making a big stand this week. But, uh, yeah, Burger and Spir this year, but they’re they are nowhere close to playing as consistently well as what we’ve seen from Scotty Sheffler. If you want some data to back up Sheffller and why he’s still a good fit uh, as at such a short price, you know, here’s the thing. He’s gone inside the top three, including a playoff loss at the Charles Schwab Challenge, uh, the past three times he’s played this event. He’s knocking on the door. He knows that he can complete three consecutive wins for the first time in his career with a win in Fort Worth this week. Going to be a ton of family and friends in the crowd, I’m sure, supporting Scotty. So, um, I I just don’t see him slowing down at all. plus 240. He is ranked currently first in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained off the tea, first strokes gained approach, 15th strokes gained putting. Now the strokes game putting metric is huge because if you are a golf better or a golf fan, you know that Sheffller’s weakness throughout uh his recent surge on the PJ tour has been putting. He’s cleaned that up substantially in 2025. He’s fifth in putting average, 11th in putts per round, and 17th in one putt percentage. This has led to leading the PGA tour in scoring average on par4 scoring. And um yeah, there there’s not enough you can say about him. He’s third at finding greens in regulation. It’s 70.8%, second in whole proximity, and he’s 27th in driving accuracy. Now, driving accur accuracy is going to be massive at a course like Colonial Country Club this week. uh a lot of doglegged fairways that that are fairly thin. Um and there are some trees in a in play as well. So if you’re getting an errant lie off the tea, it’s going to be a bit difficult to recover. Greens run average about 5,000 square feet, which is, you know, right in the middle of average for a PJ tour course. It’s not small, it’s not huge. The bank grass greens were a recent renovation a couple of years ago and those are known for being extremely fast-paced. I think it’s going to run up to 13 feet for putting velocity this week. So guys who can read bent grass greens as we’ve seen Sheffller be able to do that this season and throughout his career that’s going to give him an edge. But like I said, there there’s not this isn’t I would I would not call this week the week to get cute and trendy and look for one of these long shot guys. It could happen. I mean, we did see uh you know, Sheffller had his work cut out for him after the front nine on Sunday at Quail Hollow Club during the PGA Championship with John Rom. It was not a long shot, but he he was what 20 to1 25 to1 compared to Sheffller’s 5 to1. So yeah, you know, at one point Rom had tied Sheffller and uh then Sheffller just put his foot on the gas, separated from the pack, and he doesn’t make mistakes consistently. Maybe maybe there’s a bogey here or there, but he’s going to bounce back with a birdie on the next hole almost always. So yeah, there there’s the formula for cashing a plus 240 ticket on the PJ tour this week. You ride the chalk. We’re going one unit on Scotty Sheffller to be the outright winner at the Charles Schwab challenge and uh completing his first ever three consecutive event win streak. So yeah, lock up Sheffller as the chalk here. It’s not necessarily uh a great value play, but it’s a play that’s going to look very very enticing come Friday or Saturday when Sheffller’s minus 500 to win. So, a couple other bets real quick here to take at the Charles Schwab challenge includes I’m just going to stay in the finishing markets. If you’ve never bet a finishing market uh wager before, it’s there are dead heat grading associated with that, which means that if there’s over five guys who finish in the top five, you divide the payout by however many come inside the top five. So, there if there’s like a four-way tie fifth and then there’s seven or eight guys that finish tied fifth or higher, you’re going to have to split that payout amongst all eight of those. So, for tournaments that have a lot of uh traffic in a particular position, it can reduce the payout a bit, but I still like this market. It gives you action and a lot to sweat uh throughout the week. And for those golfers that do make the cut. Um, so yeah, top finishing markets. I’m I’m looking at DraftKings right now specifically. They have You can bet top five, top 10, I’m sorry. You can bet top five, top 10, 20, 30, 40. Now, here are some of the bets that I like outside of Sheffller to win this week at the Charles Schwab challenge. I have Aaron Ry for a top 30 finish at minus 120 odds on DraftKings. uh Harris English for a top 30 finish at minus 105 odds on DraftKings and Brian Harmon as a plus odds wager at plus 120. All of these guys have fared well at the Charles Schwab challenge in recent uh appearances. I think Ry was T32 in 2024, so he didn’t cash this ticket last year, but uh Ry is coming off of three straight top 30 finishes, including a T19 at the PGA Championships. So, he’s in good form. He leads the PJ tour in fairways hit with with his driving accuracy. Not a lot of power off the tea, but he does compensate ranking inside the top 20 for Green’s hit in regulation and stroke scanned on approach. All of those skills are going to come into play here at a course like Colonial. So Aaron Ry, he he’s 30 to1, which is pretty short for him to win an event. He’s only done it once in his career, but I do like uh betting on Ride to record a top 30 finish at minus 120 odds. I think that’s pretty good value here. Um Harris English had a phenomenal round going six under on Sunday at the PGA Championship to surge into a T2 finish. He’s minus 105 to card top 30 finish. And last season we did at the Charles Schwab challenge see English missed the cut. So maybe that’s why we’re getting pretty decent value on him entering uh this event. But he did record a T12 in 2023. So it’s it’s not all bad when it comes to English’s history at uh Colonial. But um you know he’s he’s great. strokes game putting and strokes gain off the tea are are are kind of his specialty areas uh for English. So yeah, I like Harris English at close to even odds to record a top 30 finish. And then Brian Harmon, Mr. Mega Corp himself, I think one of the shortest players in height on the PGA Tour, but he’s turned in a couple of top 30 finishes at the past two editions of the Charles Schwab challenge. So, uh, he did win the Valero Texas Open, uh, early April. So, uh, and then followed that up with a T3 in a signature event at the RBC Heritage. So, a couple of bad performances sliding outside the top 40 um, and back-to-back events, including at the PGA Championship, I is why Harmon’s available at plus 120 to to post a uh, top 30 finish this week at Colonial. But I I do think he comes through leaning on his T green accuracy. Putting has been an issue for Harmon, but I I believe that uh he’ll be able to score low enough to wind up inside the top 30 at plus odds. Um so yeah, those are all my best bets here at the Charles Schwab challenge uh at Colonial Country Club. It’s a par 70, runs under 7,300 yards. There’s two par fives, four par threes that are between 194 and 248. And a lot of the par4s are under 450 yards. So, if you’re accurate TO green, you’re going to be able to compensate for not having a ton of distance and power off the tee, which guys like Harmon and Ry do not possess. So, to quickly recap, all my best bets for the PGA Charles Schwab challenge that tease off tomorrow morning. I like what is it? Three golfers to go inside the top 30 in the top 30 finishing market. We got Aaron Riy at minus 120, Harris English at – 105, and Brian Harmon at plus 120. And I’m going to bet the chalk, take the world number one golfer, Scotty Sheffler, as he aims to win three straight events for the first time on his PGA Tour career. The guy is redot. He leads the PJ tour in almost every metric and he’s placed inside the top three um three straight times playing at this course. So I I I just don’t see any scenario where Sheffler doesn’t win this event and plus 240 is really short, but come Friday or Saturday when he’s minus 200, minus 300, etc., it’s you’re going to regret not taking him at this number. So, I would bet up to two units on Shalayer plus 240 to be the outright winner and then one unit plays for each of those top 30 finishing prop bets that I just ran through. So, thanks again for tuning in to the FFA off. appreciate the viewership and hopefully we sweep this board, go 4-0 and enjoy watching Scotty dominate at a course in his hometown.
