The PGA Tour continues to heat up as we head to the historic Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge!
Will the 2024 co-runner-up & heavy favorite Scottie Scheffler get his vengeance at 2.5-1 odds, or will a longshot like NorCal native Maverick McNealy at 30-1 come out to play? Tune in for the top finish picks & predictions at the Charles Schwab Challenge, plus all the latest around the PGA Tour!
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 21st stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E21).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:45 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
07:05 Scottie Scheffler Dominates the 2025 PGA Championship
13:55 Rory McIlroy’s “Quail Fail” at 2025 PGA Championship
16:37 Ángel Cabrera Returns After 30-Month Lockup, Wins on Champions Tour
18:20 Caddie Notes: Colonial Country Club Course Breakdown
27:20 Club Twirls: 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Predictions
27:58 The Favorites
34:46 The Mid-Range
40:32 The Longshots
49:50 Final Picks
51:23 Plugs + Outro
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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the 19th hole. We are live on Inbetween Media. We are sports. We are lifestyle and everything in between. The PGA Championship was won for the books. Some guy named Scotty Shuffler just keeps winning golf tournaments. Darn it, we didn’t bet on him last week. We get another chance this week at the Colonial Country Club. They call this the Charles Schwab challenge. It’ll always just be colonial week for me and Connor. We’re old school. We’re just old, grumpy men uh contankerously waiting for another tournament to hopefully fade Scotty where he won’t win and break our hearts. Make sure you like this video, subscribe to the whole god darn channel, and join us right after this. Bump it. He Here we are. Connor’s back in the his house. I have arrived. Yeah, you were you were joining in with us a little bit. Uh Tim will be happy to be for the return of the hat. We tried to go you into the hat, but you were off you were off the camera for a while there and when we were finishing up the show. That’s okay. The hat is back this week. Royal Slate’s back in the house. Shout out Canada. We stand on guard for the uh we got the news niblick, the world of golf and lots of news tidbits. We got the caddy notes where we’re going to wax poetically about Colonial Country Club. That’s actually pretty easy. Great golf course. And of course, we’re going to bet on some golf with club twirls. I was twirling my new golf club on Saturday night at the driving range. Oh, first one, right? first first drive right out right like I hit like five or six half wedges to get my shoulders loose you know get the the limber get limber as as limber as a 38-year-old out of out of shape sedentary lifestyle man can be and I hit it really straight about what I usually hit it and I was like oh that felt pretty good I’m going to look at the face just clean face brand new driver and it was off the toe it still went long and straight And I was like, I can get used to that. I uh I did not have as good a results. I played in Kolkata over the weekend and uh missed my quota both days by uh in excess of 15 points. Uh finished dead last in my flight and uh yeah, it was it was brutal, man. First day was uh 40 degrees at T off with 45 mph wind gusts. Oh, ouch. Yeah, not not great. Dead last. Oh, sounds like you had a really good day. How do you finish again? deadl. Yeah. So, uh, so yeah, my my current handicap is not doing me any favors in that format either. So, uh, it was it was a rough go this weekend. Hey, I’m scratch on the range and 12 to 15 on the course. So, what are you going to do? Well, yeah. I had So, I had to I had to rush and get my handicap established for this season. So, my first few rounds really good. I was I was coming in around like a seven, which for me is good. Yep. And, uh, the reality is I’m a lot like you, Bo. I’m probably more in that 12 range. And so I’m I’m fighting an uphill battle. Hey, we’re just going to camp out in the mid 80s and wreck the net. I mean, you don’t want to give us strokes on the course. If we’re playing net, it’s going to be it’s going to be a very nice day for us, but if we’re playing gross, it’s going to be gross. Well, well said, sir. Well said. Uh Royal is asking which driver I went with. I got the Ping G430 Max. It’s a 2023 model. Uh, but obviously great for me since I was playing a Nike VRS Tour from 2011. Big upgrade for me. I had to So, speaking of new clubs, I I had to put the Scotty on the shelf for the weekend. Like, I just haven’t gotten it figured out. So, I went back to the old two ball and I was actually making putts. So, that that was good. But, I have the I put a new Superstroke grip on my my 2005 Odyssey black insert. uh uh what’s it called? The fastback putter that I have had forever and ever since high school. I’ve never given that thing up. Just put a new grip on it when it starts shredding in your hands and you know you need a new grip. That’s what I did last week. So I’m I’m good to go. Another five years I I’ll I’ll be able to ride that the Superstroke grip and Yeah. And and you can buy just about a hundred of those grips for what I paid for this Scotty Cameron that will be on uh collecting dust for the uh the the the putter back in 2005 I paid $90 for and I spent 30 on the grip. So there you go. See, it doesn’t take investment money to be good at golf. It takes investment time on the practice facility on the golf course, lots of reps. That’s why Scotty Sheffller’s so good. That dude is just practicing all the time and he’s so much better than everybody else. It’s ridiculous. You cannot buy your way to victory. It turns out Nope. Turns out that it just takes hard work and we are not we don’t have time for that. No. And no one would ever accuse me of being a hard worker. So, well, let’s let’s get into the news. The nibck is upon us. Uh, a lot to catch up on. The world of golf is buzzing at the Scotty Shuffler’s third major victory and everybody else who seems to be a little bit sore about it. Well, you hit the right the wrong drop within 5 seconds. 5-second rule. totally redeemed myself. Was that you? You did that. Yeah, I hit the wrong one and so I immediately realized it and hit the right one which obviously fixed everything. Nobody noticed. Talk to Nichollet. We got to take those buttons away from you immediately. The launch codes are in my briefcase. Uh we I wanted to shout out West Tennessee talking West Tennessee 101.5 FM. you’re catching us live, so forgive us if we slip up and give you some bad information. Actually, that’s all we do on this show, so take everything with a grain of salt. We tend to be pretty good at what we do. But the disclaimer is that we don’t always win, as in last week when neither one of us bet on Scotty Sheffller cuz he hadn’t been he never played a competitive round at Quail Hollow like some other guys who had won there four times in the past. Uh they’re neither one of their tailor made drivers, the QI10s were conforming from overuse. So what happens is the face thins out and when you thin out titanium, it gets hotter and eventually it becomes non-conforming, too springy, too thin. And both Scotty and Rory had non-conforming drivers. They had to swap heads and one of them did very poorly for the whole week and tie for 47th. That would be Rory Mroy, the guy we both bet on. And the guy who’s number one in the world and winning everything he plays. Didn’t seem to be too bothered by the new driver head. He had a couple pulls on the on Sunday in the front nine. Figured it out. Turned on the afterburners, left John Rom and everybody else in the dust. Green mile on Saturday was the most amazing thing. Like 14 through 18. Last five holes on Saturday. Scotty Sheffler was five under par, including one of the craziest 300 yard shots with a 3-wood you’re ever going to see on the par 41 14th three feet for Eagle. That’s That’s stupid. That’s stupid. That show That shot was amazing. Connor, what is it going to take for somebody to A beat Scotty at anything on the golf course and b is he ever going to relinquish number one in the world? So, the way that they started on Thursday, I I did not think that it was going to be Scotty’s week. Um or Xanders or Rory’s. No, it was bad. It was uh it was pretty gross. Uh yeah, dude. Honest to God, I mean, I you can’t take anything away from Scotty. Obviously, he’s amazing golfer. Uh he’s he’s winning a ton. Uh you know, I is he the world number one? I don’t know. I mean, you know, you know that I have opinions on that. I mean, I think I think Rory had a bad week. I think right now you could really make the argument that they’re still both neck and neck. Rory’s doing some serious damage this year. Um, you know, and frankly, I think if we had Bryson 247 on the PGA tour, there he’d be up there for sure. Yeah. I just I think there’s a lot of players that on any given weekend can definitely give Scotty a run. Um, but it’s it’s five under. 500 on his last five coming down the stretch on Saturday for a final round for a third round 65 that left everybody in the dust. You He was even with the rest of the field and then all of a sudden you’re teeing off on Sunday and he’s got a three-shot lead. Good luck. Yeah, he’s still I mean I will say it’s it’s it’s not as uh as consistent as it was, you know, like if you look at I mean a 71 on Sunday. Um not not great. Um you know, he bounced back really well in round one, but he started pretty rough like we talked about. Um so I mean there’s there’s some chinks in the armor, you know, like I I don’t I don’t know that he’s I don’t know if he’s as put together as he was last season is all I’m saying. Like he’s he’s still an amazing player, don’t get me wrong, but I just I think he’s more getable this year than he was last year. Were you as happy as I was watching John Rom have fun on the golf course again? Because that was nice. That was that was like, okay, John Rom is finally figuring out this this whole professional golf career has a lot to do with legacy. and his legacy as a hotthead, as the person who throws tantrums when he doesn’t play well. I think that’s behind us because we saw him play immaculate round up until the 16th hole on Sunday. Pulled even with Scotty Sheffler entering the back nine. It was shortlived, of course, and then of course he went through the green mile five over par to finish up his final round, dropping him out of the top five entirely. But for a fleeting moment, we were like, “Okay, John Rom smiling. John Romh having fun. John Rom human being.” Scotty was shaky at that turn. And of course he made birdie at 10, 14, 15, and that was it. But uh for a while there, we were we were like, “Okay, John Rom is here to play and he might even be top live.” That ended up being Bryson. But uh if we get a reinteg integration of these two tours in the near future over the next couple years, this is going to be some fireworks every week, not just four times a year. John, Ron, Bryson, uh we might even get a resurgence from other guys that have made their way over to the Live Tour. There was so many great names that went over there that we don’t get to see enough because they’re not playing as many competitive rounds against the rest of the best in the in the world. I’m not going to say one or the other is better because it kind of goes week to week. Yeah, I think I think there’s plenty of guys over there. I mean, Neman jumps out at me. Um, his first top 10 in a major this week. Cam Cam Smith, though he hasn’t done much. I mean, you think about the rhythm that he can get into when he’s competing with these guys. I mean, Cam Smith is still one of the one of the best players in the world. DJ was number one in the world five years ago. What happened there? Well, what what happened there was right. Holy cow. What he finished? He finished this week dead last. Yep. Uh, not great. Yeah, DJ is a a puzzling case of motivation. Brooks seems to have kind of fallen on hard times after it didn’t seem like it affected him one bit the first couple years of the live defection. Uh, he was still shown up in majors and now recently he hasn’t been. Yeah. I mean, it’ll be interesting to see once they’re back. I mean, I I think it’s inevitable. I think we’ll see it. I don’t know. I think as soon as probably 12 months, maybe as long far out as maybe 24 months, but I think these guys start start playing in some capacity. I can’t wait. I can’t wait. Yeah, I’m I’m I’m I’d welcome them back. I mean, I think all the drama and nonsense has kind of subsided and so it’s Right. All the checks have cleared. Everything’s kind of back to where it they were before they defected. all the money’s been spent and now it’s just like four million for winning seems to be the status quo in most events. Uh so what’s the damn difference anymore? Yep. Yep. Get them get him back and get all the best players under uh under 110. So hopefully that happens. We have to we had to egg on a little bit more on Rory Maroyy’s performance. Mr. Quail Hollow absolutely terrible all four days. Just couldn’t figure it out. Wayward off the tea, which we haven’t seen Wayward off the tea from Rory in what, a year and a half. And then his approach game was kind of off again. Like he’s he was flustered by his lack of success off the tea and it just compounded in other parts of his game that we thought were locked in. Uh very terrible performance for Rory. I was so disappointed that I bet so much on him because it was bad. Yeah, he burned a couple of lips with putts and it just I mean just he looked out of sorts. Um, and I don’t know I don’t know if the single, you know, same season grand slam was creeping into his head or or what, but if it probably crept out pretty quickly after Thursday cuz it was uh it was over. It was Jover. And uh I wasn’t a huge fan of him dipping away from media coverage all four days. It’s one thing to not do it on Thursday when the whole non-conforming driver thing kind of leaked out. that that had to tick him off. But the other three days, what’s your excuse for not talk not taking any questions? Even the guys who like even even the guys who played terrible missed the cut, they still fulfilled their obligations. They still answered some questions that they might even just say next question. I’m not talking about that today. Rory just ducks out all four days. That’s a bad look. It’s like I get you are burnt out from talking more than anybody else the last couple years, but come on, man. Yeah, he’s gota he’s got to get his I don’t know. He’s he’s gota he’s got to get the uh fan appeal. He’s not beating the soft as Charmin allegations these days. No. And he’s I mean he’s been doing this now for quite a while where like if he’s you know in his feels for the day he just dips out. And like you know I’m a dieh hard Rory fan but I I will say I it irritates me even when I see him do it. I’m just kind of like, grow up, man. Like, go face the music. You’re taking this whole Irish goodbye thing a little seriously at this point. You’re not even doing it well. Everybody sees you dip out the line. Hey, every day is a half day if you just leave. The key is you about you got to fade into the shadows. Pocket sand. But yeah, no, we uh I I think we I not just us, I think the vast majority of people were very heavy on Rory this week and he just didn’t deliver. very poor s he made the cut on the number which was a small victory very small uh and a lot of people made jokes about oh from jail to quail for Scotty Sheffler he spent a couple couple hours in jail back in Louisville but uh the real story was Anal Cabrera on this on the Champions Tour served 30 months in South American prison and comes back wins his second tournament on the Champions Tour and and then two weeks later wins his first major on the Champions Tour with the tradition. That’s that’s real adversity. You spend 30 months locked up and you come out there on the Champions Tour and win two of your first four events. Mad props to Anhill Cabrera, Masters Champion. Uh that’s I mean it’s just a cool story. Like the guy gets a shot at redemption and he goes out there and plays some great golf. So kudos to him. Do you have any thoughts on Anhill Cabrera? Yeah, I mean it’s a family show now, so we’ll save some details, I’m sure. But uh I’m going to guess his prison experience was um a very stark contrast to Scotty’s. Very stark. I mean, as as poor as the reputation for Louisville is, I’m thinking Brazil and Argentina’s not better. Yeah. Yeah. I’m surprised you don’t have a face tattoo or something. Hey, those are all the rage these days. H that that ship has failed for me. I’ll just keep this baby face going. Yeah, let me get some get some face tats. I got tats everywhere else. Why not do my face? Oh, that’s why right across your forehead. I think it’ll be a good look. No regrets. Not even one. Not one letter. Not not one letter. Know what I’m saying? Yeah. Well, uh let’s let’s actually hit the caddy notes drop here uh for real this time. Connor, you ready for Connor Coughlin colonial colloquialisms? That’s what we’re gonna call this segment for this week. Write that down. This is the Colonial Country Club, Dallas, Fort Worth, Texas. The Metroplex is what they call that area of Texas. Uh, it’s the Connor Coughlin Colonial Country Club colloquialism hour here in Catty Notes. Um, I don’t know how I said that so fast twice in a row, but go for it, Connor. That’s I I I do have that written down. That’s impressive. No, I do not. I just That’s That’s off the cuff. And uh and I’ll never be able to recreate it. I I’m going to give all credit to our Lord and Savior, Mountain Dew. That through that all things are possible. Not a sponsor yet. Yet. Mountain Dew or Monster. I’ll take either one at this point. Uh, monster turns me into a monster. So, I’ll try to stay away from that stuff. Yeah, we don’t talk about it often, but uh this is my my backyard. I was born in Dallas, Plano, technically. Um, but yeah, Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas. Par 70 uh 7289 yards. Fairways are Bermuda. Greens are bent grass. Colonial is a Titaneline uh with tiny greens to trees. The trees are ancient here. This course is the longest standing um uh course in the rotation. I think what is it? 25 years straight, something like that. Yep. Um so anyways, accuracy is super critical here. Uh even the even the layup spots that you think you’re hitting to can be obstructed by some of these overhanging trees. Um so that being said, you’ve got to be accurate off the tee. Obviously, distance really doesn’t give you much of a much of an edge here. Um there’s very very specific spots to hit to. Um so yeah, it’s not going to be a bomb and gouge gouge affair. I know we say a lot of times that distance can be uh utilized almost everywhere. This is really not the case here. Like this is not at all. Very very strategic golf. Um and hit it straight. Hit it straight again and make some putts. Yeah. I mean and and really you’re summarizing it pretty well. I mean it’s an it’s a good watch. It’s a great course. I love it. Um, but yeah, the strategy here is just to be excellent from all approach buckets. Uh, really this is not about uh anything other than accuracy off the tea and being able to knock it very close on approach. Like I said, they’re tiny greens. They’re going to be pretty quick. The um the other thing that you have uh that’s a problem on approach is there are a literal ton of bunkers here. There’s about 80 uh 80 plus bunkers in play. All the greens are heavily guarded. Uh so you’re it’s not if you end up in the sand, it’s when you end up in the sand. So uh there is a strong little bit of a correlation with strong uh sand players. Uh good around the green games being being able to scramble and get up and down. Uh there’s also plenty of water that comes into play. There’s six holes uh that further uh further emphasize accuracy. So pretty much everywhere you turn, you can get yourself into trouble here. Uh that being said, you know, historically this course can be tamed by almost any type of golfer. Uh as long as the only thing you’ve got to be is accurate, as long as you’re accurate, um there’s a lot of different guys that have had success here. So, yep. Um like like B said, uh we both look forward to this tournament every year. Uh it’s usually a mixed bag of for the field, but uh you know, uh it’s it’s still a great watch. So, yeah. Yeah. And it it really drills home the fact that you don’t need a course to be 7,500 plus yards to be difficult, especially when you do it the right way. You grow the rough out. You make the fairways narrow. The greens are small and fast, well guarded. Uh good shots are rewarded here and poor shots are repelled here. Uh so that that’s what golf is all about, especially at the professional level is a 7,600 yard course last week is probably going to have around the same winning score as a 7200 yard course this week. And that’s that’s that says a lot about what Colonial is still. It’s still a course you can’t you can’t take advantage of by length. You can’t you can’t just say, “Hey, I’m going to hit it down there as far as I can.” If you do that here, you’re going to miss the cut. It’s It’s not going to be fun. A couple of guys have found shortcuts where some of the taller trees are are not present. Like you see some of the guys bombing it over dog legs, but it’s still a lot of risk to that because if you pull it off, great. You’re going to make a birdie. But if you don’t pull it off, you’re looking at double. Uh that’s the the risk is built in here. And a lot of the guys won’t even take that risk. They’ll say, “Hey, let’s play positional golf. hit some quality shots and try to avoid the the compound error when we do miss the fairway because 27 yards wide on average the third narrowest fairways on the PJ tour. Uh you have to be in the fairway to score here and if you miss you just have to avoid the double bogey. Well, and to your point, you know, you bring up something interesting about compounding the problem. When you do try and cut these or when you do try and uh shape a shot and get a little bit of extra distance, you know, just by by laws of math, you further reduce those those widths of those fairways. So, the level of precision that you’ve got to be able to exercise off the tee to try and uh pick up a few extra yards, you’re just not going to see a lot of guys doing it. It’s a riskreward deal and and frankly, it’s not worth it. Yep. So, we’re looking at good drives gained, accuracy, greens in regulation gain, proximity, all the buckets. I’m I’m going from 125 to 200. Uh strokes gained par4, especially in that 400 to 450 range. Uh there aren’t any par long par4s on this golf course. Most of them in that kind of 4 to 450, and there’s a lot of them. So, you you have to capitalize on the par fours. There’s only two par fives. The first hole is the easiest hole on the golf course. The second hole is the second easiest on the golf course. It’s a shorter par4. After that, this course gets gnarly in a hurry. You get three, four, and five. The horrible horseshoe. Uh, Colonial has stolen some souls on holes three and four, and five after people get a little little cocky after the first two holes. And then the other par five on the back is a 635. It’s a beast. That’s a three shot hole for everyone. And it’s still a birdie hole. you you have to be able to take advantage of the par4s when you’re sitting in the fairway uh attacking a pin. Uh that’s why this golf course doesn’t really have any winning scores better than 15 under par. It’s it’s it’s a classic. That’s that’s the beauty of Colonial is that anybody can win here and it it could be any anyone with any skill set. It’s whoever plays the best this week. Yeah. The horrible horseshoe too. I mean, I I think it used to be a little more horrible than it has been the last couple of seasons. Um, specifically, hole number three, um, is all the way up to almost a 12% birdie rate, which is, I thought, kind of surprising. So, you can really get off to a good start. Four and five are going to turn the screws on you for sure. Um, there’s no doubt about that. But, but one, two, three, if you can, if you can, you know, go birdie birdie par and get yourself going and then weather the storm of four and five. um from 6 through 10 really 6 through 11 almost I mean those are all getable holes for the most part um there’s you know I think the course is I think the course has been a little more getable since the redesign um but you know it’s to your point it’s got teeth everywhere so you know it’s it’s speculative but I I think there’s some good opportunities to have some birdie runs here um you know especially if you get a guy that’s really really got it dialed in for the day really and everything accurate, not going to close. You know, the greens are really small. I did look at some of the putting stats, too. Um, there is a strong correlation to people that win here with the with the putter. I’m not saying it’s a putting contest, but this is definitely a tournament where you need to gain as many strokes as you can putting, too. So, um, doesn’t hurt to bake some of those in if you’re modeling. Yeah, that’s that’s what kind of what I’m doing, too, is just kind of putting the whole picture together. Uh, I like hot golfers who are traditionally accurate off the DE and on approach. Um, and unfortunately for everybody, that points us all towards Scotty Sheffller. So, without going too deep into it, uh, let’s hit the drop and let’s bet on some golf. Conor, Scotty Sheffller. DraftKing sports books. What we’re using, you use whatever you book you want. Scotty Sheffller is going to be pretty much considered a coin flip to win this tournament. Plus 250. Uh, not the best odds, but who else are you going to bet on here? And Connor, if you’re not betting on him at plus 250, are you interested in doing the live betting that I like to do where I stalk the live odds all Thursday, pensively anticipating an afternoon wave for Scotty and where the morning guys, somebody goes out there and shoots 64. That’s what we’re hoping for. And then Scotty might start uh par par on one two. That would that would really set things off. And then he hits the horseshoe maybe at one or two overpar and we get him at plus 600 or plus 700. That’s when I’m attacking. That’s my plan. What are you gonna do? I’m going to get him at the plus 250 and then I’m going to live bet him too. Please, Scotty. Please, Scotty. No whammies. No whammies. Yeah. I like here’s the thing, man. and and we we talked about this a little bit last time I was on with you is I I think we’re kind of getting to a point where uh fading the favorite no matter how short is not proving to be a good strategy um not this year. So So I you know would I normally bet somebody a plus 250? No. But like Scotty is clearly a cut above the rest of this field. It’s three cuts in I did one, two, three, I did 10 categories this week in my model and he is number one in five of them. And and no worse than 33rd, which is putting in a field of 133 to get Scotty 33rd in putting means that Scotty has no weaknesses. Scotty’s going to win and he might win by 13 shots, which is a com combined total of how much he’s won the last two turn times he started. Uh, this is Scotty Shuffler’s tournament to lose. I just don’t know if I can do plus 250, but I will be anxiously awaiting whatever it turns into on Thursday. And I’ll probably end up pulling the trigger somewhere around that number. If if he comes out okay, then I’ll I’ll be like, “All right, let’s just do it anyway. We have time. We have time until Thursday to figure stuff out.” But Scotty Sheffller, by far, number one in my model, by far number one, your model in in our hearts. Uh, watching him sign his card with Bennett holding his yardage book and hat. That was an amazing moment. Uh, the dude’s a dad first. Where are you gonna put your waker trophy, Scotty? Oh, it’s going in the golf room with all my other crap. Who Who says that? That’s amazing. That he’s one of us. We can’t We can’t keep pretending that Scotty’s elite if he’s just like us. He’s just He’s always giggling about golf. Just like golf looks fun for him and he’s just better at it than everybody else. So, let’s might be the secret to why he’s so good, man. He just goes out and he enjoys playing. Well, that and he never misses the center of the club face like ever. That helps. That helps. He’s He’s pretty good. Um, I’m going to start my actual card at 30 to1 Mav McNeely. Shout out NorCal, licensed pilot, heir to the Oracle throne in NorCal comes from money. Still a damn good golfer. Yeah, I I like Mav here, too. Uh, 30 to1. I uh Daniel Burgerer is actually where I start mine at uh I think I think he’s still at 25. Let me just double check. Yeah, he’s still at at plus 2500. Um and burger rates cheeseburger burger is two in my model. Uh the other thing too that like I you know I I people maybe forget is burgers won here before uh back in 2020 and he’s having a really good season man. Nobody saw it though. That’s fair. That’s fair. Got a little co. It’ll get you. Um I don’t even know was that was co wasn’t it? Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There there was nobody on no gallery that it was it was Michael Block’s worst nightmare. That’s back when I was betting esports because we couldn’t bet on anything else. Had to get my fix, man. Um but yeah, I was just going to say like I I don’t think people realize just how good Burger is on approach. He’s fourth in my model over the last 36. Uh he’s also third in opportunities gained. He’s hitting the ball really really close. um doesn’t miss a lot of greens, but when he does, he’s got a pretty pretty decent around the green game. Uh especially over his last five ten starts, he’s been been really good at getting up and down. So, yeah, I I like I like the value of Burger here. I mean, when you at 10 times the odds of Scotty, um this this is a place that Daniel Burgerer has won. This is a course that makes sense for his game. It’s not necessarily a birdie fest. So, um yeah, I think Burger 25 is a good number. Yeah, and other than Mav and Scotty live, I’m not dabbling in any any short odds here because honestly, this this course kind of brings it out from all angles. Is uh you don’t see very many first timers win here or even have success here. You kind of have to be the third, fourth, fifth time at Colonial to to score high. I think only one first time winner has happened the last 30 years. That was uh that was our guy Davis Riley last year. uh first time first time in the tournament wins it last year by five over Scotty and company. That was an impressive performance. Uh this is the kind of course that can pull guys out of the woodwork. So I’m going to jump right to the mids and a guy Do you have any interest in Tommy Fleetwood for what? I just when you when you look at guys that are accurate and have solid approach games line what’s the line for top 20 because that’s what I bet. That’s kind of what I was wondering is what you were doing with him because I I know he’s getting a little bit of steam. Um for what? Yeah, I don’t His top 20 I think is plus 110. Nah, no thanks. Not interested. I might do the top 10 on him is plus 220. I don’t I don’t hate that. I hate it. He’s fourth in my model. Uh the the two shorter approach buckets, he’s pretty mid. 61st in putting, 62nd on the par4 distances we’re looking at. No thanks, Tommy Fleetwood. As soon as he does something ever, I’ll be back in on him because I like watching him play. He’s a fun watch. He just doesn’t win anything. He doesn’t finish high. He finishes top five every once in a while, top 10 even more once in a while. But he’s just like he’s your cutm parlay guy. If you if you got a cutmaking parlay, yeah, put him in there. But otherwise, Tommy Fleetwood is a he’s a non-starter for me. God just feels like it’s going to be a course like this that he gets it done at. Yeah. No, I don’t think so. I don’t I don’t know if he has the that killer instinct. He’s too nice. He’s so nice. He’s so nice. I am going to dabble the entire ladder on a new friend of the friend of the show, Michael Kim. Big Mike says my swing is Yeah. Says my swing is nice. He’s my next one on the card. See, I’m going I’m going buckshot on the long shots. I got Mav and I got Michael Kim in the mid-range. Talk me out of Michael Kim because I’m I’m all in and it has nothing to do with him thinking my swing is nice. Yeah, that was nice of him on social media. I need to I need to like get on there. What was that on the old the old X or Twitter, whatever the kiddos are calling it nowadays. Yeah, he was he was in a flight delay back to Dallas with uh with Ben Griffin and Tom Kim. And so I put my swing vid from the from Driving Edge on Saturday and I was like, I don’t like my takeaway. Can you give me a drill to help me with this takeaway? Cuz I set my wrist really early and I don’t I don’t like it. I don’t get any width on the back swing. And I was expecting him to say something other than you look you slot it real nice. I’m like, “Thanks, man. It’s really nice.” But it didn’t help me. Oh, Bo. But it did make my day that a PJ tour professional looked at my swing and said, “Not bad.” I uh I’m glad he didn’t see my swings over the weekend. Michael Kim. Um, yeah, I think I I think for me I’m probably out on Michael Kim this week and the the main reasons the approach game hasn’t been great over the last five starts. It hasn’t been horrible. It just hasn’t been fighting injury to be fair. That completely fair, but I mean you look at the last time I mean PJ championship he lost almost three strokes on approach. Um, the other thing too is I it’s a relatively correlated stat that you got to make putts here and he I mean it’s just not putting well right now. Like he started this season redot. I hope he bounces back. Um I just I think that’s pretty short for Michael Kim given the current form, my opinion. Um but I’ll say in that mid-range I started our our boy Sew Kim who his course history here is so bad which makes no sense. You would think that a guy who plays positional golf as well as he does. I think the only thing that’s tripping him up is that Colonial was not designed by Pete Dye. Yeah, I think that’s it. If we just say it was designed by Pete Dy. I mean, Sew might know the difference. Yeah. Does anybody love Seiw more than Scotty Sheffller does? No. God, did you see some of the miked up stuff they were doing? So funny. They crack each other up. See is hilarious, dude. Yeah. See, they were giving him a hard time. They’re like, “What’s your bar tab up to after that hole in one about 5,500 bucks?” Oh, yeah. See, Siw’s great. Um, and makes it easy to root for the guy, but but in and being real about why I think he’s a good bet here, uh, the approach game is absolutely nails right now. Um, I mean, and typically to your point, Bo, he does play pretty good positional golf. So, but over the last five starts, he’s gaining almost three strokes to the field. I looked at his around the green, which I already said is going to be important here. He’s gaining about 1.3 over the last five starts. And then for Sew, what always is the kind of hiccup is the putter. And though he’s had a couple of bad weeks uh amidst a couple of good ones, uh he’s coming off a real hot putting week at the PGA Championship, he gained almost seven strokes on the greens there. Um he was been eighth, 15th, 17th, and eighth now in his last four starts. I mean, Seiwoo is prime and uh and best I can tell, good vibes are going around him, too. So, I really like Seiwoo here at 40. Yeah, let’s just ignore how terribly he’s played here in the past because he’s hot right now. So hot. Uh I don’t have anybody tell you hit 90 to one. Do you have anybody kind of else in that mid-range or you were going to go deep sea fishing here soon? Let me get let me get my uh info up here because I didn’t uh didn’t have time to post into our show notes. Apologies for that. You blew it. I blew it. Um got a lot of interest in Ryan Gerard at 65 to one. I think that’s Yeah, he’s playing great this year. Yeah, he’s playing great. Um he’s another guy that uh is is pretty hot right now. I mean, when you look at when you look at um look at what he did at the PGA Championship, eighth place, uh gained almost six strokes on approach, uh had a flat putting week, which for him is actually a pretty decent putting week. Um and then the other thing too that I like to see that spiked at the PGA Championship is he typically doesn’t gain a lot of strokes off the tea, but he gained 4.2 last week. That’s excellent. Yeah. And when you I think people mistake that stat to mean like distance and it’s it’s really he’s short off the tea. He’s just he’s uh he’s been striping it down the middle of the fairway which obviously very important last week and this week is even more important to be in the middle and the distance doesn’t matter as much. Like Ryan Gerard is thankfully a good long iron player because uh he was hitting fairways and he showed up really well last week. He he hung in there quite a bit longer than a lot of people expected. That that uh that form is going to carry over well to this golf course because he’s he’s one of the shorter hitters out there, but he’s always in the fairway and he’s going to give himself shots on approach. He’s he’s a pretty decent approach player, especially from the mid to long iron distance that you will you will have a good amount of uh longer approach shots on this course because of how they force the the force this the spots off the tee into a certain area. Yeah, you should take a look at that one because I think that’s a good number on him, especially with the form. So, if you if you haven’t looked at it, I would. Okay. Jacob Bridgeman. I’ll let you talk about Not on my radar. No, no Bridgemond for you. No Bridgemond. Did he kill you? Uh, he’s hanging out with Tom Hogi. So, Bridgeman just solid across the board. He didn’t really have any great stats, but he also doesn’t have any terrible stats. So, he popped up at 35th in my model. I like the 90 to1 number. Jacob Bridgeman’s a quality golfer. Am I going to invest a lot in any of these guys? No. But Jacob Bridgeman’s the kind of guy who’s accurate in all the ways that you want him to be. And he’s just he’s riding a hot putter. 21st in this field and 13th on the longer approach buckets. Those are those are good things to have at this golf course. Uh do I want to see him find more fairways? of course, but I think that he’s also struggled with driver where he’s not going to be hitting quite as many of those this week. Uh, Jacob Bridgeman 90 to1. The guy who I’m really interested at 120 to1, Mac Meisner showed up really strong last year at this golf course playing really solid golf this year. 120 to1 for a guy who showed up really high, finished last year at Colonial. That’s that’s what we’re looking for is because Colonial is tough on newcomers and he showed up here last year first time and was top 10. That’s that’s something that I definitely pay attention to. His his style of play fits this golf course. Um he’s a good positional player and he can get hot. I like I like guys that can get hot. Uh especially if we’re going up against a guy like Scotty Shuffler. Anybody else kind of in that 100 range that you’re throwing some darts at? I got two at 150 and one at a th00and to one. I have one at 150 and one at 250. And you know who the 250 to1 is because it’s a mispric like every week. So I’ll I’ll go first with my 150 to ones then. Um so the first one I’ve got Sammy Valamaki uh which personally I think is a mispric as well. He rates out four miles. definitely is. Um, you know, prior to the PGA miscut, he was on a hell of a hot streak. Um, cut came courtesy of losing on approach and putting, which is pretty abnormal for him. He, uh, he tends to be around that two strokes gained on approach and almost two strokes on putting. Um, he’s nails from 5 to 15 feet and he’s number third in my number three in my model for opportunities gained, uh, which is usually about a 10-ft metric on birdie opportunity. That’s the Norin stat. I think the correlation is here for Sammy. Um, and he’s playing some really good golf. So, I I would have put him a lot I would have put him closer to that 80 80 90 to one range. So, I think this is a good value we’re getting on him. Um, and then Henrik Norlander. Uh, I was shocked that he popped up. Uh, he’s number two in approach. uh which you know again last 24 rounds so it’s a pretty recent you know uh sample but really really solid on approach right now bogey avoidance he’s in the top 10 um and he was uh number nine overall in my model this week so 150 to1 again I think that’s a pretty good value on on a guy who’s in pretty decent form right now yeah we just don’t want him to putt because he’s bad I think yeah the approach the approach is great drives gain 14th. That’s that’s great. Uh T Green 20th, that’s solid. 113th in putting and 105th on par 4 is between 4 and 450. So other than the two stats that I’m really paying a close attention to, he’s great. But at 150 to1, that’s baked in, right? That’s there’s some holes. Okay. I don’t I don’t fault you for trying, Henrik Norlander, but I’ll see your Henrik Norlander and Sammy Volamaki, and I’ll raise you 17-year-old Blades Brown, who is fantastic already on the Cornferry Tour, chasing leaderboards on the Cornferry tour at 17. Uh, he finally grew up. The kids got some length to him now, and he’s really straight off the tea. He’s really straight on approach and he’s got a a short game well beyond his years. Uh very similar style of player to Scotty Shuffler. Is he there yet? No, not even close. But uh I like this. I like his style. I like the way he goes out there and navigates a golf course. And what better place to navigate a course than Colonial where everything’s kind of equal. This is the place where Anukica Saen Stam uh made her PGA Tour debut. This is is where a lot of people come to be a spectacle but also show off that golf is so many different things. It’s so many variables. Blades Brown has the game. He doesn’t have the experience yet. I want to see Blades Brown. I’m going to throw five bucks on him at 150 to1, but making the cut top 20. You better believe it. Blades Brown is every bit the future of this game. Even though we probably won’t see that come to fruition for another four or five years, he’s still gonna be there. Yeah, 100%. And I I think you you and I both are on the same page. Every time he’s teed up, we’ve at least thrown five bucks at him. Um super super uh talented prospect. So, he’s a high schooler, man. What’s going on with these kids these days? I don’t know. He’s crazy good at golf. I I will say it’s a he does have some control issues off the tea. Um, but outside of that, um, you know, the rest of the game looks pretty good, especially the approach matrix. So, I definitely think there’s dumber things you can do with five bucks. Like, Blades, Blades is the real deal. Um, and it’s going to be really cool to watch this guy grow up and and come into his own. Yeah, he’s been impressive so far. Uh, and since your last one is so deep that he probably never does, has anybody heard of the guy you’re betting at a thousand to one or is that going to be? Yeah, I talk about him every week. So, okay, that’s good. It’s probably like Frankie Sapen or something. Um, but uh Carl Phillips somehow PGA Tour winner Carl Phillips is still going out 250 to1. So, why wouldn’t I bet another ladder on him when he’s already won us so much money this season? uh great approach player. Can he find the fairway off the tea? We don’t know. We really don’t know. But when he’s in the fairway, his approach game’s great and he can make some putts and he can he can hang in there. Uh why wouldn’t I bet Carl Phillips, the the talent, the future, the Sunday Red, the Stanford kid. He’s got all the chips in his favor. Nothing to lose at Colonial. 250 to1. He’s 100 to one deeper than 17-year-old cornfairy tour part-timer Blades Brown. And that’s a PGA Tour champion this season. What is going on with these odds? Dude, you know I love Carl Phillips, but you know what Carl Phillips can’t do? Find fairways. I hit a fairway. Yeah. Yeah, it’s bad. Um, I like the number. I don’t love the course. I you and I bet him every week as well. So they’ll Yeah, because they haven’t figured it out yet. And he we won it 70 to1 at Puerto Rico. So why wouldn’t we just keep raking it in? Yeah. I mean, right now we’re we’re positive money on Carl Phillips. So Oh, yeah. We will be all year. Got a few more bucks to throw at him. No, I think I think I’d love I love the golfer he can be. Um I my big hope for him this week is that we just keep the driver out of his hand. Let him let him hit a little shorter clubs. You don’t need it, Carl. You don’t. Yeah. If you If you’re watching the show, Carl, just club now. Just just put it in the fairway. Hit your hybrid. Hit your sevenwood, your ninewood, your three iron, your two iron, whatever you got in the bag that’s not a driver that you can hit 250 yards off the tea. It will be just fine at Colonial. I promise. Or over swing and top all your drivers so they just roll down the fairway. I don’t really care, but just worm burners in the short grass. Yeah, fine fairways, please. If you’re if you’re in the trees this week, you are going home on Friday. Uh and you Yeah, you hit the nail on the head with my thousand to1 shot here. Um I am gonna I am going to throw five bucks on Frankie saving the third Minnesota. So a 1000 to1. The guy hasn’t done much yet. Um and again he’s he sure can putt though. What’s that? He makes every putt for double bogey, doesn’t he? He sure does. and and god and god love him. Every now and then uh he demonstrates that he has some short iron game as well. Um so no I think I think the thing with Frankie Sabin is this is the type of course this is a lot like when Brian Campbell hit in Mexico in my head like this is a course type that works for Frankie Sabin’s game. Um and so obviously he’s a relative unknown so that’s why you’re getting a th00and to one on him but he could vary very easily. We want people that are very good on approach and we want good putting. And he does both of those things when he’s when he’s actually playing to form. So, it’s just worthy of a $5, you know, hope for the best. A cup of Joe bet. Exactly. All right. What do you say we do the the hat and wrap this thing up at 52 minutes? We are crushing it. We’re dialed in. Hat hat. Hat hat. Come on. Low number. Come on. Low number. 24. 24 in your model. That’s Oh, I like it. I like it. I like it. I got upside on my 24. Oh, not so much for you. I got Matty Smid. Matty Schmid. Oh, the German bomber. Not a great fit. Colonial. Not Not really where you want him. The the Blitzkrieg is what we call him. The German bomber. Barely gained 105th in this field. Em and Carl. 25th on my model was Henrik Norlander, but 24th is the pride of the Philippines, Mr. Rico Hoey. I would take yours over mine. I would too because he’s number six in putting and 38th in greens and regulation gained, 38 in in good drives gained. Uh top 20 on approach, top five on strokes gained, par four. Rico Hoey, upside pick for your DFS lineups. I’ve been playing some Hoy this year. I’ve been playing and doing all right. He’s on DraftKings $7,100. That’s a great pick. That is a good price. It’s a good price. What? Uh, so if it’s not Scotty, who is it? I got Mav McNeely or Mike Kim. Let’s go Mike Kim because he said my slotting was nice. I’m gonna go Burger or Seawoo. Burger. Burger. All right. Join us next week. Memorial. We’re going to Jack’s place next week. one of the best non- majors of the season. We love Memorial. We love Mirfield Village. It’s going to be so awesome. Join us. Regular night. Yep. Well, we’ll we’ll to be determined. We We’ll talk about it. Stay tuned. Stay tuned. It’ll be for Memorial though.
