2025 PGA Championship – Can Anyone Beat Rory, Scottie and Bryson? | Early Wedge

Sia Nejad and Mike McClure discuss the biggest question at this week’s 2025 PGA Championship – Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Scottie Scheffler

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What’s up everybody? Welcome to the Early Wedge live chat. It’s me, it’s Mike Mccclure. We got a lot to talk about related to the PGA Championship. And frankly, we’re going to talk about what you want to talk about. Any question you have, whether it’s DFS related, maybe it’s ownership, uh maybe it’s wave advantages, which I’m not sure there’s a there’s a huge one uh this week. Maybe it’s betting. Who knows? Whatever it is, you can ask us. And I love Mike. I always love having you here because especially when people have DFS questions and betting questions, win equity questions, all of those things. How you doing today? I I’m good, Sia. I you know, I’m just looking at uh some of this DFS ownership. I’m looking at where the betting markets have kind of settled and we’ve seen quite a bit of movement uh around more so than you typically see, you know, the week of the major, right? you typically see the odds shuffling you know weeks in advance when you see results from other majors but I don’t think we’ve seen odds shift kind of like this uh you know day of type stuff like we are this week any in particular that caught your eye that that you were like well that’s a dramatic move I’m surprised it moved one way or the other on that particular golfer Uh I mean it’s got to be Bryson for me um you know see you and I we we liked Bryson a lot uh you called it out at plus400 uh last on Sunday when we were on this very channel live sweating uh a bunch of action. I want to check everything here. Yeah, it’s he’s down to 700. The odds have truly cut in half on on Bryson. Um which is pretty incredible. Now, I like to see it because my simulations that are on Sports Line, I made Bryson around seven to one to start with. Um, and we we obviously pointed out how uh short that number was, but to see it go from 14 to plus 700 the week of the tournament with Scotty Sheffller and Rory Mroy in the field is pretty incredible. I I do want to ask you too, by the way, I was looking away. I’m I’m I’m tweeting the show out and uh if you all are out there and you like this show, um, help us out. Tweet the show out as well. again. Anytime, Mike, I know I always sing your praises, but anytime you’re on a show, and it doesn’t matter what we’re talking about, could be NASCAR, could be NFL, could be MLB, whatever it is, I think people learn so much just listening to you, regardless of the sport, just about betting as a a sort of like a global topic. And and that’s where I want to go with you next because what we also talked about on the Sunday show was the win equity that’s trapped among the the big three. And I just want you to speak to that maybe what the numbers probably should be on guys like let’s say Rory and and Scotty Sheffler and how much win equity is is being gobbled up by the big three here and that of course includes Bryce and everyone. Yeah. So the the big three is gobbling up a ton of the true win equity and even more of the implied win equity when you’re talking about what the sports book odds are. Uh you’re basically Scotty 4 to1 Rory 4 uh 450 and Bryson plus 700. I make them all in the plus 700 range personally. Uh again, if you want to see exactly where I make the number, you can see those on sports line. Uh if you are a sports line member there, the simulations are there. The exact win percentages translated to American odds. So I had Scotty at 719, Rory 754, Bryson 755. So out of all of them, the one that’s closest to true value is still Bryson. As you can see, Bryson was exceptional value when he was 14 to1 and 10 to1 and 9 to1 and trickling down to kind of that fair price now around 7 to1. But, uh, you’re you’re definitely talking about basically 40% of the win equity going to the top three golfers in the field, which is just incredible. It is incredible. Uh before we get to questions and a lot are trickling in here. Is there somebody outside the big three that you’d actually be willing to bet from an outright standpoint? Yeah, there was two actually. I did take a little position on JT and uh Patrick Kentlay. Uh you know, see we talked about Patrick Kentley on Sunday as well. Uh and just seeing that number next to his name, I kind of thought there might have been a little value but ultimately didn’t know until I ran the numbers. Had some value on Patrick Kentlay. I want to check out where. So JT’s kind of holding steady 22 to1. Patrick Kentlay, he might still be at 45 at some place. Yeah, between 45 and 40. I’m seeing him down to 40 in some spots. I played him at 45. I like Kantlay in that particular spot. Um I’m not going to get to John Rom. The one John Rom is the one that just I can’t quite get to and I I just can’t agree with where the market continues to price him until we see it again. Um, Xander now becomes interesting at 22 to1 though. Yeah, he’s he’s certainly dropped. Doesn’t John Rom feel like, and I’m not saying I’m playing him in my primary DFS lineup. Doesn’t he feel like almost a perfect DFS play as opposed to when you contrast that to like wanting to bet him outright and I’m not saying it’s an unfair number at plus 1,800. It’s actually a pretty good number. But to me, and maybe you can speak to ownership on Rahm and the top of the board, to me, Rahm feels like he’s just getting left out in the cold here. He he’s kind of left out in the cold. But what’s happen what’s interesting uh you know when I talk about like DFS projected ownership I’m using a few sources and really uh building lineups and running some of this stuff and ROM is still pretty popular here which is mindboggling to me. Uh I’m not playing them at uh at 102. I I get that 102 is a significant discount from, you know, the other three, but I I mean I I wouldn’t be anxious to click him over someone like JT at 9900. So I Rom is showing some ownership. So I I think that’s interesting because I just simply don’t agree with it. I see a question in the chat from Chris. Uh we talked I talked a lot about how I thought Scotty Sheffller was going to be about half the ownership. It looks like it’s started to level out a little bit. the the projections that we’ve seen here have shifted and they’re all essentially kind of even now between Bryson, Rory, and Scotty. So, that’s going to be interesting to see what people actually do on the final click. Uh, but Scotty’s ownership has bounced back in a way that I again, I thought Rory was going to be 40 to 50%. I’m now showing him around 28 to 30 and kind of most of that difference going back to Scotty. So, we’ll see where it comes in. I I still think Scotty will be the lowest of the three, but I would love your take on that. I don’t know what you think, but there there’s certainly um you know, I think people are willing to play Scotty because there’s enough talent in the 5K and 6K range where they can still get two good guys and make it work. I’m not a fan of playing Scotty this week. And actually, it makes me it makes me I’m like comforted by the fact that people are playing him because that means it’s a little less ownership on on some of the other guys that that I’m looking forward to playing. Great question from Chris Kish. Before we move on to the questions, it does look like in terms of somebody actually being, you know, quote, out in the cold, it does look like it’s Ludvig, which makes a ton of sense. Still not playing him, by the way. But Colin looks like he’s showing low ownership, too. Is is that what your numbers indicate as well? Yes. Uh I I I’m gonna say Colin will be fringe single digits anywhere from like 8 to 10. Now Ludvig I we talked about Ludig on Sunday as well. I I said two to 3%. I’m showing about 5% right now. I think that’ll be heavily dependent on the contest you’re playing the stakes of the entry fee on his ownership. Um you know another tip I know we I I like to get on tangents but if you’re watching this show live it’s because you like this stuff. I I can tell you that the biggest way, you know, we talk about betting all the time. There’s a term in betting that’s used called closing line value. Uh essentially looking at where the the bet closes from where you bet it and hopefully it is moved to a worst price in the market, which is in your favor. You can get the same idea and look for the same thing when you’re playing DFS. And how that happens and how that works generally is you can look at like a the the flagship contest and then you can look at really high stakes contests and you can see that ownership. You don’t get to see it ahead of time. You get to see it after it locks, but you can generally start to get a good idea of where some of the sharpest players, where some of the biggest money is when you look at ownership discrepancies between those two. And how you can still use that is you could still once those contests lock look at those positions. There will be always two to three golfers that a very sharp community is taking a stand on. You can then go look to still grab them outright. You can look to target them in matchups. You can look for certain things. So, there’s a ton of crossover between DFS and in the betting markets. Um, and some of those players, like I said, Ludvig, he may only be two or three% own in some contests. He may be five or six in some of the lower uh own or some of the lower dollar contests.