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The Chicago Cubs have officially called up ace pitching prospect Cade Horton, and the future of the rotation just got a lot more exciting. What’s going on with Ryan Pressly? With Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga out, do we like these bullpen moves? On today’s CHGO Cubs Podcast, we break down Horton’s scouting profile, pitch arsenal, and what fans can expect from his MLB debut. Don’t miss our full reaction, analysis, and what this move means for the Cubs’ postseason hopes. Corey and Brendan break it all down on this edition of the CHGO Cubs Related Podcast.
00:00 START
03:00 San Francisco Giants Series Recap
04:40 Cade Horton
18:18 Cade Horton Charts & Graphs
32:20 Dansby Swanson
37:30 Pete Crow-Armstrong
40:30 Kyle Tucker
46:00 Carson Kelly
50:40 Justin Turner
53:40 Ryan Pressly
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On tonight’s episode of the CHGO Cubs related podcast, the Cubs drop a tight series at home against the Giants, but they head to New York to play the Mets, and they are bringing top pitching prospect Cade Horton with them. We’ll talk about that and more on tonight’s episode of the CHDO Cubs related podcast. [Music] [Applause] [Music] Heat. Heat. [Music] This is the CHGO Cubs related podcast driven by Toyota. Let’s go places and bet 365. Whatever the moment, it’s never ordinary. Use code cho365 at sign up. Hello everyone. Welcome in. My name is Corey. I am joined as always by Brendan. We are coming to you on May 8th. And Brendan, the Cubs are still in first place. Still in first place, Kate Horton. Cory, it’s the Kate Horton show. We’ve been waiting years for this. This will be a Cade Hortonheavy episode. Want Brendan to break down what you can expect, what he does well, what he has not done as well at the Miners, if anything, and and just what we’re getting with the Cubs top pitching prospect. It’s obviously very exciting. Uh but we’ll talk about some other stuff as well. Obviously the series with San Francisco, a tough one coming off a nice week for the Cubs and uh we’ll talk about Carson Kelly continuing to look like Barry Bonds, Vans B. Swanson who just needed to go on the road and be dropped in the order to completely heat back up again. Uh we’ll talk about maybe Justin Turner’s role, Ryan Presley’s role. Those conversations might be a little similar. Uh we’ll talk about it all. But before we get into Kate Horton, Brendan, just setting the table a little bit, especially on this off day. If you’re listening on Friday morning, Cubs not playing until uh the evening in New York against the Mets. Uh 4-2 road trip against the Pirates and the Brewers, their first against NL Central competition of the year. And then the Cubs come home. They blow the doors off the Giants in game one on Monday and then lose a couple of close frustrating games uh to kind of finish that series. Uh Dansby Swanson a major highlight throughout that. Carson Kelly continuing to do that. The series in Milwaukee was the PCA and Kyle Tucker series which was a wonderful site to see. Uh so a a lot going on. Uh Brendan and it’s it’s unfortunate the way that Giants series played out. Giants a very good team. They have a very good pitching staff uh to start this 2025 season, but it felt like had they come back in that game on Tuesday and they walk it off in the 10th inning, that would have been one of those nights on Cubs Twitter where everybody’s getting a little carried away with themselves. That was a signature win that they let kind of slip out of their hands and then they drop the finale. Still in great shape though. I the getting away has already happened. seeing PCA continue to do this. You have Kade Horton making his debut this weekend. They’re still in great shape. The bullpen’s coming together despite Presley not showing his best form. And despite injuries with Steel and Shota, you still feel good about this team. So, I’m getting carried away. I’m starting to believe more in the depth of this team. And despite all of these small hiccups, it seems like they’re just little tiny obstacles in their way. And that’s the best feeling to have. And then when you have Barry Bonds Jr. and Carson Kelly, you don’t need anyone else. You know, maybe you should extend Carson Kelly in addition to extending Kyle Tucker in in in that priority order, right? Yeah. So, look, it’s been a very tough schedule. So, I know I’m sure some people are kind of tired of hearing about that, but it has been a tough schedule. Cubs are 22-6. They have a three-game lead in the division in first place. Uh there’s worse places to be. So, now let’s transition into the big news. We are still, as we record this, we are live here on Thursday night waiting for an official transaction. There’s obviously going to be 40man implications, uh, corresponding moves, and we need to hear from Craig Council probably on Friday when he meets the media in New York on what actually is going on here. But the tweet made the rounds earlier on Thursday afternoon uh, from Tommy Burch uh, of the De Mo Register. great uh work for the Iowa Cubs that the Cubs are indeed going to be calling up Kade Horton playing uh playing a little bit koi throughout the week, not naming a starter for Saturday, not saying what the move was going to be. Even after Chris Flexon pitched the other night, Craig Council still like kind of non-committal on what it would be, but we still don’t know, Brendan, exactly what the role is going to be. Is is he making that start on Saturday? I would certainly think so. Uh what are the official moves? So, keep posted on CHDO Cubs Twitter. Our guy Jared Willis should have those press releases when they come through. Uh, but Cub’s top pitching prospect Brendan, he is coming. We’ve been talking about it. We’ve been monitoring. Is he going deep into games? Is he throwing this many pitches? Is he holding his VO? And he’s coming. He will be in the major leagues and pitching for the Chicago Cubs probably on Saturday. The first question everyone wants to know is, well, how longlasting will his role be? He’s thrown 30 innings. Is he gonna be called up? Is he even gonna be sent back down? Is this a one, two, three start stint, then he goes back down? The answer is, I don’t think we know. And I don’t even think the coaching staff or front office has an idea of what’s going to happen. I think truly it’s one of those situations where if he pitches well, you figure out the innings. Yeah. And I had thought about this this morning. What if he’s on an innings limit? Is it 100 innings, 125? Do the Cubs value innings limits anymore? Do they have better markers of fatigue? Whatever it might be, we know given some of the shoulder injuries recently, it’s not going to be 170 inning workload. There’s just no way that happens unless he miraculously grows this stamina. It’s not within his history, even dating back to uh college. So, let’s say he does only have 70 more innings and that would total 100 innings. You can still work this out. That averages out to about 15 innings per month during the remainder of the season. That’s about two to three starts per month. And if they don’t want to use him, let’s say once every 7 to 10 days, you can piggyback them. Have them go three innings, four innings, have Chris Flexon piggy back off them. Have Drew Pomeran’s piggy back off them. and so on. And this exact example is why Carrick Council was hired to deal with guys who are going to go through the developmental timeline. It’s why he had success in Milwaukee during those early Corbin Burns and Brandon Woodruff years. So the takeaway for me is he’s here. The role is not etched out. And if he succeeds, naturally, it’s going to etch itself out. And I could very well see him never going back down to Iowa if he succeeds from day one. Yeah. As far as how that all looks, it’s I I wish I could provide uh you know the official answer, but I think nobody really knows. The the people who work for the Cubs and who have put his pitching plan together probably know. Kate Horton might know. Uh but we do not know. Uh and even what they tell us initially may not be exactly how it plays out. But what the Cubs are getting is a guy who so far in 2025 has a 1.24 ERA across 29 innings of work. That is six starts for Kate Horton. Overall in the miners, a 2.7 erra in 36 starts, 151 innings dating back to 2023. Uh just nasty stuff. uh if you guys have seen, you know, on just some of the highlights and stuff, his his breaking stuff is absolutely filthy. He’s ratcheted up what he can do with that fast ball. I’m sure Brendan, you’re going to go into more detail on those two things. And I I think the question for me as the season was rolling on was it’s a matter of when, not if, he comes up. When you lost Justin Steel, there was there was that immediate urgency to like, all right, let’s just go Kate Horton. But at the time he was really only pitching barely like into or past the fourth inning. Not really going dips. Yes. And having velocity significant ones as the game was going on. Since that time he’s improved in all of those areas, going a little deeper into games, going a little, you know, past the 70 pitch mark, things like that. And I think once you lose Shoda, maybe in an ideal world, everything’s perfect, everything’s going great. Shoda and Steel are chugging along. They’re both competing for Asai Young. Maybe you’re not pulling this trigger yet. You’re going to continue letting him build up. Build up that stamina. See what he’s got. When you’re down your two top pitchers, you got to make this call. I’m glad to see they made this call. I know there was people maybe they should wait for the Marlins or the White Sox. Do you want to debut him against an offense like the Mets? Who cares? You got to shoot for upside. Everything I’ve read, everything everybody talks about these prospect writers and guys that know suggests he is the type of guy that is up for this type of challenge and he is a guy who wants the ball in New York. Let me make my debut pitching to Juan Sodto. That’s the attitude that Kate Horton is going to have. And you got to shoot for upside. We have seen that this offense on this team is capable of giving us a really fun season, Brendan. And the injuries to your top two starter show obviously hopefully only just a month, but you’re not going to get Justin Steel back. The pitching staff seems to be the area of concern as far as like matching what the offense has been capable of. And when you go down those two guys, I think you got to pull the trigger and go upside. They could have brought up Jordan Wix. They could let Chris Flexon stretch out and do it, but go for the upside. Try to strike while the iron is hot. Kate Horton’s pitching well. He’s healthy. See if he can go out there and even if it’s only four or five innings at a time, see if he can make those really quality innings. It’s a little different though than PCA’s call up last year. PCA was called up when he was struggling offensively and then he had that that sururgence in May even though that was not the the intention for the callup. Horton’s clicking. So this is not hey our pitching depth is suffering and we need to make a move. This is Horton proving that he’s ready to pitch. Th difference in how they’ve used guys in the past from the positional side and the pitching side. He is ready. He’s going deeper in the starts, throwing six innings, and his fastball shape has held up, and the stuff looks really good. So, I I’m confident. You talked about it was a matter of time for Horton to come up, and it was, but truthfully, entering the year, I did not expect this to happen so fast. The main reason is due to that shoulder injury. He missed the entire second half. And that signals to me like ah, you know, young top prospect. They’re going to be very careful with him. There might be a slow ramp up period. And for him, he’s for me exceeded that timeline. And the stuff looks better this year than it did last year, Cory. So, it’s not just a matter of health. It’s a matter of him actually improving from last year. The shapes look better, the stuff looks better, getting more whiffs. He looks like a majorly caliber pitcher. And if he continues to show these types of pitches, typically those pitch types yield results. It’s a matter of staying within himself, staying, you know, mentally confident, convicted on the mound with a greater environment, stress with the crowd in New York, and just tightening it up. And this group, this Cubs clubhouse being veteran rich seems like a a perfect scenario for him to to succeed. Yeah, absolutely. And I was reading uh a great article over with our friends at Bleacher Nation from Brian Smith, the one and only Brian Smith, uh friend of the podcast, and he was saying, you know, not to get he doesn’t know the specifics, but he felt kind of like the Cubs have maybe treated him a little too carefully in terms of some of the limits and, you know, the pitch limits, the innings limits, and not suggesting like look, if he if Kate Horton was on the Dodgers, he would throw 110 pitches on Saturday and probably need, you know, surgery for a cor labum in two months, right? But it was just interesting to read that that, you know, of course we see the conservative approach that they’ve been taking, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that once he is up in the majors, it is exactly that conservative. It it’s going to be sort of an ever evolving process to make sure that as he continues I if he each start he has Brendon if he’s doing well enough may be the longest start each time he goes out there maybe the most pitches and then he goes out there and does it again and it may be a season high each time he goes out there potentially. So, you’re going to have to see how he recovers, how he feels, how his body is adjusting, and again, what their exact plan for him is Saturday. Is he starting that game? Is there going to be an opener? Is there a set piggyback? We just don’t know how they’re going to execute this. He’s thrown six innings multiple times. So, I I don’t think it’s as general as that. He’s ready to throw six innings in a game. So, if he does well, then there should be no reason to expect otherwise. He can’t go six. I I don’t expect otherwise. I expect him to make this start and for him to be treated somewhat normally. I’m just saying at this moment we just have not heard them say that. That’s the only thing I was um I was listening to Sahara and Patrick give you know their thoughts on how correct house communicates to the media. He never says what we’re going to do. You just see it. You never saw well why give the Mets any preparation. Right. And not only that like like you saw like okay Dan Swans was struggling never said explicitly I’m gonna drop him the order. He just does it and he goes off, right? So, it’s better just to see what they do. That’s a true way. We’re going to keep talking about Kate Hordon. We have to hit our first ad break here, but we’re going to get into some of the specifics of what he’s been doing. Brendan’s got some very detailed graphs. So, everybody get your reading glasses, maybe a pen and paper. Reading glasses just to make sure there’s little dots. I saw it already. There’s a bunch of little dots and stuff. But, we’re going to take our first ad break. 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Also today, get access to our exclusive written content, a free t-shirt, plenty of discounts on future merch and events, plus access to our CHGO Discord lounge, where we all hang out and talk Chicago sports, and so much more. Even argue if the Pope is a Cubs fan or White Sox fan. Go to all CHGO.com for the latest information on how you can join the thousands of CHGO dieards in our community. We cannot wait to connect with you on an even greater level. Just like your favorite team needs a home court advantage, your home needs a home floor advantage. And Empire Today can help you get it. Empire Today has flooring experts, dedicated flooring professionals who focus on flooring every single day. We’ve all been to those big store boxes. You wander endless aisles and somehow you’re hauling all these materials home looking for an installer and coordinating everything by yourself. Those big box stores might have a flooring department, but the person helping you with flooring may have been doing sinks yesterday and could be stocking light bulbs tomorrow. Why is Empire today your best bet for a new floor? They live and breathe flooring and they will be with you every step of the way. It’s a whole different ballgame. Schedule a free in-home estimate today because some things are just better at home. CHGO listeners can receive a $350 discount when using promo code CHGO. Yes, you heard that right, a $350 discount with code cho restrictions apply. Visit empiretoday.com/chgo for full details. All right, Brendan back in. Let’s keep talking about Kate Horton. So, the probables that we do know for this weekend in New York, it’s going to be Jameson Tyion on Friday, Matthew Boyd on Sunday. At some point we got to talk about Matthew Boyd because he’s been really good uh for the Chicago Cubs team and but we’re going to keep talking about Kate Horton before we get to anything else. Uh Brennan, why don’t you dive into what he’s doing, what he’s doing well, and how he can be successful at the MLB level. And by that I mean immediately striking out Juan Sodto in of course embarrassing fashion. Maybe a sword that ends up on, you know, the pitching ninjas page. But who who is Kate Horton and what makes him the Cubs top pitching prospect? You mentioned the swords. You’re going to see a lot of swords and the slider that he throws is his dominant secondary pitch type. So for example, if you just ask the question, who does he look like? This graph is complicated. Quite frankly, it’s kind of worthless. The reason I show it and you’re nodding your head in the background. I can see that over there. But the reason I show this graph is because this is not me cherry-picking. This is me asking my computer, just find me like his closest sibling. That’s all I care about. I don’t want to look at horizontal break. I don’t care about any of that stuff. Just show me who he looks like. And the guys who come back are Mason Miller’s slider, George Kirby’s slider. And the reason for this is because they have a very high release point, steep angles, and they tend to generate a unique combination of vertical brake and horizontal brake. So, if you’re curious about what a slider looks like, you can go look at it, right? Or you can just look at someone like, you know, like a George Kirby type slider. Now, the difference though is that Kate Horton slider has about 12 in of horizontal break. Your average slider is around 6 in. And this is unique because the average slider with that type of like drop is much slower. So, he’s throwing like a pretty fast slider with a lot of sweep on it. That’s why he’s unique. Now, if you look at his fast ball, his fast ball is also unique. And remember, look at that release point when you watch him. Okay? It’s a very steep release point. Same exercise. Who does he look like? Find me a comparison. The computer this time says, “Ah, it’s hard to find one. He’s an outlier.” That’s why you see him at the very top of this graph. He’s away from the normal distribution of guys. The computer cannot find a similar guy. But it tries. It says, “Hey, you look like Tyler Glass now. You look like Sunny Gray, look like Spencer Turnbull. And the reason again is because most guys do not have that unique combination of cut and ride. This is a trademark of the Cubs recently. It’s cut ride guys. Justin Steel, Jameson Tyome when they had acquired him, Colin Ray, Chris Flexon, Brad Keller, Porter Hodgej. That’s how the Cubs have had success. And Kade Horton is all those guys on not literal steroids, but metaphorically steroids. He uses this fast ball with these traits as his ominant pitch type. And rarely do you see a fast ball like this. So when you’re watching the games, just dial in on those two pitches. He’s going to throw those about 80% of the time. He’ll sink in a sinker. He’ll change up the pace with a change up maybe once every 10 pitches. and he may throw a curveball every now and then, which is still a work in progress. Slider, fast ball, two very unique pitches. Looks like kind of Tyler Glass now looks a little bit like uh George Kirby as well. Great. Well, there you go. And I I want to give a shout out in our YouTube chat. Edward there, Edward Elrich uh loves the graphs. So, you know, there’s people they tune in for it, man. You know, that’s what they’re here for. They’re not here for me. They’re here for all those charts and data points. horizontal run, things like that. But look, Brendan, ultimately, it’s exciting to see this. This is also one of those areas where you give a shout out to the Cubs scouting development, their draft team. When they made this pick, it was a guy who was injured. Uh, and there was a lot of scrutiny over this pick. It certainly was not like, oh, he’s the guy who’s going next in the draft. They’re definitely taking Kate Horton. So, a lot of conversation around this pick and the Cubs have they they they had the courage, if you want to call it that, to make that pick, stick with their guns and they’ve developed into the point that they’re calling them up with a sub one and a half RA in AAA. You got to feel pretty good about that from an organizational perspective. They’re not, you know, historically an organization in our lifetime uh past Mark Prior, an organization that we get these types of like upper tier pitching prospects like this. So, this is exciting. I’m really Anyway, uh yeah, but I’m looking forward to this, Brendan. And and it’s one of those things, too, where uh you know, again, remembering like this will be his major league debut, it if it is on Saturday in New York, it’s a tough team, tough matchup. Uh but I think again, everything you read and hear about Kate Horton is that if this goes well, he’s going to bottle that up, build on it, and go try to do better in the next start. and if it doesn’t go well, he’s going to learn from it. And same thing, he’s going to bottle it up and do better in the next start. So, I’m looking forward to seeing a Cubs pitcher and a pitching prospect that is so highly touted get an opportunity. And it comes at a time where the Cubs need it. Like maybe he’s not going to be able to give you, you know, complete game shutouts depending on the pitches and the innings and however they’re managing all of that. But the high ceiling is something that this rotation doesn’t have as much of when you lose Justin Steel and Shanaga. And you know, there’s there’s those times you got to call for reinforcements, man. And I’m I’m looking forward to it and what he can bring to this team. Where do you fall on future expectations for him? Do you think he will be with the team the entire year if he succeeds, or do you think the Cubs will pull the brakes despite him being good? I wish I knew, man. Uh, you know, like I said, kind of trying to read, you know, and I don’t want to put words in his mouth, but, you know, Brian’s work at Bleacher Nation, just wondering if they were being more conservative than they needed to be, just as they’re kind of building this up, coming back from the injury. Um, I I would expect that the Cubs would like him to contribute to this team if he’s able to come up and have success and make adjustments at the major league level for the rest of this season. But how you would manage that and how comfortable they would be with that depending on how his body is feeling is just something that I can’t really answer. So I I I would be kind of surprised if this was like a short just burn it out kind of thing like he’s got, you know, whatever you said 70 innings. We’re going to make those starts every fifth day and then just shut him down for the year. But teams have done stuff like that before and if that covered you, you get Showda back, give him extra time to rest, go make a move at the deadline, maybe that could work. Maybe that’s their plan, but imagine they’re just taking this day by day. So, I’m probably going to go along with that with them. Uh, but it is it’s a fair question because it’s unlike other situations. Like, we just know that they’re going to be monitoring his innings. They’re going to be monitoring his pitches. He hasn’t hit a lot of these levels uh in the minor leagues or since he was in college, some even in college, depending on what you’re talking about. So, these are real things to consider. Uh, and if you see him go out and just dazzle when he makes his MLB debut, just something to keep in mind like how are they going to manage this and can we expect him to be doing this exact same thing come September, October? Just questions we can’t answer right now. Yeah. I mean, you try to look at what Kirk Council used to do, right? And this is years ago. The context has changed. Wooduff, he was not as highly touted as, you know, some folks had him. Khorn has the best pitching prospect in the league last year, right? So, a little bit different, but when he debuted in 2017, he totaled 111 innings, struggled a little bit at both AAA and at the big league level. 2018 was his year where he kind of settled in. Had a striker rate of of 10 per game, year rate of 3.6 at the big league level, but he still pitched only four starts in 2018. and he had 19 appearances. He started 17 games in tripleA. So, I’m not saying we’re going to see the same type of scenario, but there was clearly some focus on limiting the innings, right? And if Kate Horton is successful, kind of like how Woodruff was in 2018, right? You can make do with just 70 more innings. I think the way to frame it is how valuable is 70 innings now through October with well above league average production. That’s incredibly valuable. Think about what you typically trade at the deadline to acquire that value. So, we’re greedy. We want to see him go every fifth day, but just 70 yen of well above league average value cost a lot of prospects on the trade market. Yeah, I I said this to our friend uh Ryan Tomir on Monday night at beautiful historic Wrigley Field while we were watching the Cubs beat the Giants. Uh and it maybe it’s not a perfect comparison, but I’m kind of like preparing myself for a little bit of how I felt watching Rich Harden. Like maybe these outings are going to be short, but he’s going to rack up these strikeouts and it’s going to look sick while he’s so good, dude. That that that splitter he threw. Oh my gosh. One of my favorites. Yeah, you know, I know I know you mentioned it, but uh you know, just looking uh again from Brian Smith’s work, like you mentioned the slider, but uh when he developed it between 2024 and 2025, a 40.5% whiff rate on that slider in AAA filth, Brendan, I mean, that’s what you’re getting. So, it’s exciting to add that to the rotation. We’ll let Craig Council and Tommy Hottie and Jed Hoyer figure out the pitching plan and recovery plan and all of that. Uh but again, with Steel down, SHOD down, I’m glad they’re making this move. I’m glad they’re not wasting any time. And I know a lot of people either jokingly or otherwise, you know, are nervous about this May and June stretch. This has been the area the last couple years where a good start has gone to die. Now, I firmly believe this Cubs team is different. Huge part of that is that Kyle Tucker is here. Have you guys heard me talk about Kyle Tucker before? Who? Who? Kyle Tucker, the Chicago Cub. Yeah. But I know people are nervous about that, but that’s part of what excites me about them making this call. Like, as we said, and Chris Flexon’s been good. Maybe you’ll talk about him coming out of the bullpen, but like they could have thrown him on Saturday. They could keep playing the waiting game with Kate Horton. Well, we want him to accomplish this in AAA or we want him to get to eight innings in triple, whatever. Pick whatever parameter you want. I’m glad they’re kind of saying, you know what, we’re in first place. We’re playing well. We got dealt a bad hand in a way with how it’s playing out with the top of a rotation. We’re going for it. We’re bringing the guy up and we’re going to try to see if we can get that high outcome and just that, you know, maximum intensity here for when he comes up. And they’re making that call. If you’re going to waste, not waste, but if you’re going to use his bullets, use it at the big league level, you know. 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Check out the full line of Wrightton products today at writonoptics.com. That’s rioptics.com. All right, Brendan. So first 30 minutes was mostly Kate Horton and I think that’s deserved. It’s a big deal. There’s a lot of hype. I can’t wait for that first start. I know they like to do this on the road and maybe that’s not why they made the decision, but I’m hyped. That first start at Wrigley Field is going to be electric when he when he gets out there. The vibes are going to be pretty high. Uh but want to switch to other areas of the team. Again, the Cubs dropped that tough series against the Giants. Uh and you know, enough to talk about there. I I want to start Brendan. Uh last 15 games for one Danby B. Swanson, who by the way, congratulations, is expecting his first child with his wife Mallerie. Uh 948 OPS in those last 15 games. Brendan, they went on the road. Craig Council dropped him in the lineup. Happy learned how to putt. I mean, there you go. Like it he’s just he’s just back. And I know, you know, we I think we talked about him last week and you showed that graph of his kind of like rolling exit velocity. He started the season hitting the ball really hard but not really getting results. then went into a valley strikeout rate went up and not hitting the ball as hard and you know looked really good. Uh again starting in that Pittsburgh series on the road uh continuing it in Milwaukee and having there all told you know we have talked a lot about him being the guy the Cubs signed. I know some people maybe had a different view of what they were getting and they look at the big number uh and the shorts stops that he was compared to, but Danby Swanson has always been an elite defensive shorts stop, a solid base runner, and a slightly above average hitter at the plate, sometimes a little bit below. That’s just who he is. And so those inconsistencies and kind of es and flows in his overall production, that’s what uh you know, if he’s a 101 WRC plus kind of guy, like that’s what that looks like. There’s going to be stretches where they’re great and there’s going to be stretches where they look bad. But overall, nice to see him pick up those numbers. And again, the Kyle Tucker effect, like, isn’t it nice that we can enjoy this kind of resurgence for Dansby? He’s doing it at the bottom of the lineup. I saw the other night on Marquee. I don’t know if it’s updated since. The Chicago Cubs led baseball at least earlier this week in RBI from their 789 spot. Brendan, we pray for times like this. There in in years past, the Cubs had the worst 789 in baseball. Some of the worst players below replacement level. Just garbage. And this year, they lead baseball or they did. they’re close in our in runs batted in from those positions. It It’s so important and takes the burden off those top guys. But Danby Swanson lately has been a big reason for that. Big reason. When we look at those numbers too, we we talked about it. The year started his expected numbers were better than what the actual output was. But regardless, the the traits that caught my attention was just how hard he was hitting the baseball. And again, we talk about this, but the exit VO from the brief stretches he had from a week- toeek basis was higher than what we typically saw last year at any point. So that was why I thought to myself, okay, well, he’s struggling not because he can’t hit the ball hard. and he already showed for about 3 weeks a pretty good approach. So, he’s hitting the ball hard. He’s already shown as of like 3 weeks ago a good approach. It’s baseball. Baseball is a stupid sport. This stuff happens. Guys go through slumps. All it took was one week. He went from a 70 WRC plus guy literally 7 days later to a 100 WRC plus guy. That’s just how the game works. And for veterans like Dansby who are showing the same, if not better, athleticism from a year-to-year basis, you just kind of have to trust it at this point. He’s already within career range of his offense. The defense value is right there as well. He’s likely going to end the year three, four, five wins and making exactly what he deserves. Same guy as always. Same guy as always. Wanted to talk about him a little bit. Obviously, just a shout out. he’s been playing a lot better, which is great. Uh, and I I I do just want to offer I I do want to ask you, you know, your thoughts. Uh, that game on Tuesday, again, like I said, it felt like the, you know, the Cubs felt like one of those games the Giants just get off to a a good start. Um, you know, they the the Cubs played some sloppy defense in the beginning of that game that led to some of those runs. Uh, and it just felt like, eh, this just isn’t their night. It was one of those nights where the bad luck was all for the Giants. Cubs ripped some balls, but they just weren’t falling. Liners to right field. I know Seiya hit one. I think PCA hit one. I think hit a few. Just all finding gloves. Yes. Right. Danby as well toward the end of the game. Uh and they came back anyway. And I I got to tell you, man, like when Kyle Tucker came up and tied that game late, first pitch, they bring in a new reliever to pitch to him because they do the thing. Didn’t they used to do that with Rizzo where they would where they would change to the lefty even though he would still hit the lefty? Felt like that was that kind of move like they brought in the lefty to face Tucker first pitch. Smacks it up to middle. I was like o over the moon. I I was like this guy is so man this is this is the guy that they needed. He’s here. This is just who he is. Uh, the only thing I wanted to say was that I think that game, especially that PCA played appearance in the 10th, reflected kind of just like needing to remember and it and it applies, I think, to Kate Horton as well, like where these guys are at. Ben Brown, too, who I want to talk about. Like PCA is still 23. Even though he’s coming off that weekend in Milwaukee and he’s playing like a star, his numbers are off the charts. There’s still stuff to learn. And that’s one of those at bats where, you know, you got to shorten up. You got to find a way to get the ball in the air. You got to find a way to get that run in and not chase, not expand your zone as much. But that’s also one of the areas he succeeded in. He’s hitting homers on balls that are down near the dirt or above him in the zone. It’s all part of the process. And so, you know, that was one of the areas where I was disappointed they didn’t win that game. I felt like they had it, but at the same time have to remember like just because a guy’s going off and we’re kind of deciding in our heads like, okay, he’s a superstar, give him the extension, like all this stuff. Still stuff to learn and that is okay. That is okay. Like there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s part of the learning process. That at bat got overblown in my opinion. That’s why I’m addressing it. Yeah, that lefty was disgusting. He had a sweeper going across the Yeah. sweeper across his own coming from the third the first base dugout. Rewatch it at bat. I’m not going to spend too much time on it, but yeah, the second strike he whips outside the zone. Disgusting pitch. The pitch he strikes out on, he waits back on it. He recognizes it. He just missed it. The intention was there. So, I don’t think it was a learning experience. If anything, he almost executed. He almost did what you wanted. And I’ll leave it at that. And we’ve seen too with the whole criticism on Seiya not being aggressive at times. Yeah, that’s a problem at times, but when you zoom out, it’s still those traits that make them successful. Yes. So, if you start messing with that, you’re messing with their innate features that got them to that a little bit of Joe Madden, Javi, you can’t coach it out of them type of course. Yeah. Like that’s how Pete’s been successful at the plate. You you can’t always you sometimes you got to pick a lane. So, but I did Yeah, that part of you saying it it was overblown is why I wanted to address it. I agree with you. Um, all right, moving on. I’m just going down the list. We got a lot to talk about. Cubs are in first place. A lot of guys we got to talk about. We got Ben Brown. What else we have? Yeah. And you know, to Edward’s point, I I did want to bring that up recently and we’re talking about PCA. Remember he had a quote, I think in the Milwaukee series after one of those games where he said it’s so easy to hit in this lineup. And to Edward’s point, he says, “With Tucker on the team this year, hopefully he will mitigate the annual June swoon.” So, to PCA’s point about it being easy to hit in this lineup, that’s not all Kyle Tucker, but I said this in the pregame show we did in Milwaukee to tell you. Yes, it I mean part of it. Yeah. But that’s one of the reasons we harped on and I’m sure some of you got tired of it even if you were interested in it. They need a star. They need a star. They need the Mooky Betts and Freddy Freeman of their lineup. We said it over and over and over again. The deepness that you feel, the relentlessness of this lineup is not all attributed to Kyle Tucker, but his presence makes everybody better. And we talked about that even like the first week of the season. Brendan, you could feel it. Seiya doing his thing, Carson Kelly doing his thing, PCA doing his thing. You enjoy that all as complimentary pieces to the most stable person in your lineup, the stud, the star, and that’s Kyle Tucker. And when PCA says it’s easy to hit in this lineup, that is a huge reason why. He dictates the pace. He sets the approach. And when you need that big hit, you’re getting shut out. The plate approach is bad from everybody that day. They’re just not putting good at bats together. Who is going to give you a good plate appearance and a good at bat? Kyle Tucker. He will be that guy that keeps their heads above water on days where they’re just sinking. They’re just not feeling it. And I do think he will be a type of person to mitigate any potential June swoon or any slumps from this offense. And that’s not to say that he can’t slump, but his slumps look a lot different than other guys. And so I did just want to say that like we harped on that for so long. And you are seeing when they talk about this offense being relentless and enjoying a guy like Nico hitting deeper in the order and bringing that elite contact ability to those different situations or enjoying what Carson Kelly is doing. It’s all buoyed by the star Kyle Tucker. Yeah, I mean the the lineup top to bottom is just unbelievable with the production. You look at Kyle Tucker 404 weight on base average 284 with nine home runs. Michael Bush two 363 WBA six home runs PCA nine home runs at 362 WBA Seya 358 WBA Ian Hap leadoff guy Ian Hap 340 WBA strikeout rate Ian Hap 18% walker rate 13%. I so what I was going to add is how nice you know is it to enjoy Ian Hap as the leadoff hitter and as he’s now doing it in a deeper lineup with those stars Kyle Tucker Sea Suzuki behind him currently would be putting up the best on base percentage of his career he is thriving in this role he is such a good candidate for that leadoff spot and how he pairs with those guys behind him then you have Carson Kelly 444 weighted on base average. He’s putting up Aaron Judge numbers and also you have Miguela. Miguel Maya if this were 2023 the numbers he’s putting up 75 played appearances as a 325. Wa batting 257 three homers striking homers off of Justin Verlander. Absolutely. And clutch hits too. So top to bottom you’re getting clutch timely hitting but you’re also doing it in a way that’s not like volatile. You’re not seeing these guys with at extreme rates. And this is a topic you and I have always discussed, but from my fans perspective, I always I’m a little at a little anxious whenever I watch a lineup who’s boomer. And with this Cubs lineup, when you see say Suzuki’s contact rate, Ian Hab’s contact rate, PCA’s 80 plus contact rate, all these guys make above league average contact. It’s unfamiliar. This is unfamiliar even dating back to the golden era when you had a high offensive lineup but you had Jav Bayas you know within that sub uh or greater than 30% rates. It is a different feel to it and it’s very fun to watch. It is very fun to watch. I mean even late in that game I think on Tuesday against the Giants you know the Giants bullpen they they bring those three guys in. They’re ready to shut the game down. Great work. Like not against not every played appearance, not every at bat, but like getting back in that game, taking walks when the closer came in and was a little reminded me of 2016 at NLDDS in game four. Taking the stuff that the pitching staff is giving you and that is not that is something that has been so frustrating from this team for the last couple years. You see those pitchers that are living outside the zone and they’d be chasing and you’re just or that are living on the outside of the zone and you’re not going the other way with pitches and things like that. just felt even from a fan’s perspective sitting on the couch like man they are just like not to play like armchair hitting coach but like they are just not taking what this pitcher is giving them like they are giving into what the pitcher is giving them and this offense just feels different. This offense feels like if this pitcher is not in the zone we’re not going to we’re not going to bite. We’re going to let you live out of the zone. It’s the big hits too. You mentioned it earlier Ian had batting the lead off Dan Boston batting eighth. They were three, four hitters for a large majority of the past several seasons and they’re quality hitters. They’re league average to above league average guys. But when we look at hitters who are 30 plus homer guys in Seiya, in Kyle Tucker, in Carson Kelly now, maybe in PCA now, maybe right, it’s different because that little bit of a power uh boost in the middle, it does play up. And one last point about just the the ease with which you can hit in this lineup. The reason is their starters are out of the game. They’re forcing the bullpen guys out of the game. When you get to the seventh, eighth, and nine hitters, guess what? You’re facing their least effective pitchers because 1 2 3 4 5 is just going insane, pushing him out. So, it actually gives the bottom of the order a more favorable opportunity to get base hits and that amplifies, the confidence amplifies, especially for young guys or even veterans like Danby who need to get out of that funk. Yeah. So, I we talked about Carson Kelly last week. I don’t know if you have anything to add. And then we I mean, he’s the best hitter in the league. It’s really unbelievable, right? Unbelievable. And we talked about it. I I think I I I mentioned to you, but it sounded like Boog said on the broadcast the other day that he showed your tweet to to Carson. I hope so. He didn’t say that it was Brendan’s, but like he was describing it and I’m like, I’m pretty sure that was Brendan’s video, which is amazing. Like the idea of Carson Kelly getting a text from Boog and it’s your trash post from Twitter. Like it’s amazing. Like that’s just really amazing. It’s one of my favorite videos I’ve ever made. But I I I don’t know. I don’t know what else to say. I mean, it is at the point, Brendan, that in that game the other night, Craig Councel pinch hit another right-handed catcher so that Carson Kelly could bat. I mean, it’s amazing. It’s amazing. I don’t know what to think about Carson Kelly. I don’t know what the regression will be, right? That’s the crazy part about this. Of course, he’s not going to be a a 200 250 WRC plus guy. That’s that’s greater than MVP output, right? Output him if you want. Yeah. But the question is, well, where is he gonna end up? And I don’t I don’t even know. That’s the crazy part about this. It’s so extreme. It’s such a drastic transformation. The highest walk rate in his career prior to what he’s doing right now was around 13%. It’s about 21% right now. 10.5% would be sort of by far the lowest K rate of his career. He’s only rocking a 300 Babbit. So, it’s not like he’s has some extremely high babbit that it’s like, oh yeah, he’s getting a bunch of like when Cody Bellinger had that one year he was getting a bunch of like ducks snorts to fall in the outfield. That’s not what’s happening here. Mashing the ball. We pointed it out. He’s not chasing. He’s making extreme contact in the zone and he’s hitting the ball hard in the air. Again, he he can’t possibly just all of a sudden be this good. It would be amazing if he was, but as you said, like I don’t it’s it’s not something that you look at and immediately go, “Oh, yeah. This is like total luck. He’s going to be terrible.” Like he’s made some changes to his approach. And he he he may be a really valuable bat for the Cubs here. He’s also a good catcher, too. That’s the funny part about this. He’s not just this slugging hitter who has to be behind the dish. He’s great at receiving. He’s great at the knowledge of pitching and calling games and gets the credit he deserves. And watching his interviews after the game or even dating back to spring, the guy breathes baseball that you can tell his teammates love him. And I forgot. I’ll be honest, I complained about the two-year deal. I swear to God, I did. I’m like, what are they doing? Another $6 million guy two-year deal for a catcher. Did we not just do this with Tucker Bar? I’m an idiot. I’m the dumbest person ever. Correct. I was floored. Clip that. Sure. Go for it. I was floored when I saw, oh my god, he’s under contract for next season. I forgot about that. And then you reminded me, yeah, you actually complained about this three months ago. So, I certainly didn’t think we were going to get this. But my position at the time was like, he’s a badger like it is. I’m on record of that. Oh my gosh. No. No. Anyway, it’s a very exciting it’s a very exciting development and it’s it’s an even more exciting one that you know Miguela is putting together a really nice season as well to continue where he’s been at. Like so the fact that we’re debating like which catcher should be like handling this and the answer so far is like resoundingly Carson Kelly because he’s going off. That’s a really great situation and pairs well with what I said. Now, obviously, he’s moved up in the order, but Amaya usually hitting lower. That’s been a big key to those bottoms of the order. And we talked about it in the offseason, like they did go out and get Kyle Tucker, but need to clean up that bottom of the roster. Need to be getting some production from those guys and the seven, eight, nine spots. Uh, and they’ve done that in some ways. Last 10 minutes though, that takes us to a couple spots on the roster that they have not gotten that. Do you want to start with Justin Turner? Do you want to start with Ryan Presley? It’s up to you. Ryan Presley, we can talk about other bullpen guys. Justin Turner kind of in a vacuum. Le let’s do a quick two-minute segment. Justin Turner. Then we have Ryan Presley and other bullpen stuff. So yeah, I mean I’ll I’ll lead off. Justin Turner no extra base hits. That’s all that’s all I need to know. He’s not slugging. The bats at times do look okay. Seeing the pitches well. He’s making contact. Maybe too much contact. Had that uh RBI hits in the first game against the Giants, right? And a clutch performance. So, it’s not necessarily ugly. It’s just significantly underwhelming and quite frankly not acceptable. And I I get the whole argument, oh, he’s a great clubhouse guy. Gosh, you’re learning from him. I get that. But there is a balance where you’re when you’re below replacement level. What is the value of mentorship when you’re costing significant runs to your team where you may need the one, two, three extra wins by the end of the year? I don’t know the answer to that, but I do expect if he continues to perform this poorly going into June, there’s no way he’ll be on the team. But at the same time, I would not be surprised if there’s a little bit of an increase between now and then. Yeah, I mean, we’ll see. As I said last time, like I I wouldn’t have any problem if they moved on now. I liked the signing. He had a good second half last year, was good against both hands of pitches. Uh know he brings the veteran presence and I, you know, really look, I thought he could spell Michael Bush, play occasionally, you know, put up uh slightly above league average offensive numbers and that would be fine. But he’s not showing that. His strikeout rate is is pretty significantly would be the worst of his career right now. As you said, he doesn’t have any but he’s making contact. any extra base hits. This is weird. It’s just not what the Cubs expected. So, I I I don’t know how quickly they’ll make that move because as I said last week, like they obviously had a vision for how they wanted this to work out and I don’t know how quickly they’ll want to give up on that in the event that they think it’s still in there. But yeah, dude. Like at some point, like especially while we’re trying to figure out the third base thing on a nightly basis, like if Matt Shaw were here and killing it at third base or you had signed Alex Bregman, then maybe no one would care about who’s spelling Michael Bush at first base. But Turner’s playing enough that the lack of any production is an issue. And at some point also like I I I I rarely take issue with much that Craig does, but like if he’s going to play, he should be in the eight or like nine spot. Some of these games he’s in the four or five spot or even pitch hitting there, it’s like I’m not seeing what you’re seeing. Came through with the hit the other night, but it’s clearly reaching an inflection point. It did for Yan Gomes last year, too. Remember how all the pitchers talkly about Yon Gomes, clubhouse guy, veteran guy? They moved on, right? So there is a there is a threshold that’s just too much for the front office. And again, I I appreciate the clubhouse stuff. I think it’s extremely valuable and that’s part of what I said when they signed him. But yeah, you do kind of reach that point where it’s like if you want to be a great clubhouse presence, you could be like the bench coach or something like that. Like some point guy’s got to produce on the field. So we’ll see how they go about that. Uh do want to talk about Ryan Presley though. We’ll see what the Cubs do. Don’t know if maybe he’ll be one of these moves when Kate Horton comes up. know he had his knee drained. Maybe they kind of use that one as like, hey, they got to go figure that out. Maybe he’s hurt because of it. Who knows? He had had a nice stretch. Uh, as I mentioned, I think a couple episodes ago, I think he had gone like 12 straight outings without giving up a run, but you responded that the peripherals still didn’t look good. And the question, I think, is how they go from here. I I think it’s too aggressive for a guy that had given you uh he had gotten outs for you over a long stretch. I I think it’s too quick after that horrible a wretched That was like the worst outing I’ve ever seen. It was uh at Wrigley Field, but to DFA him or move on. They traded for him. He had gotten you uh through a handful of outings without, you know, any issues. And as we’ve seen, Brendan, like the Cubs have brought up pitchers, but that hasn’t been the case. So, there is value even if you’re doing it in an ugly way. You’re not getting whiffs or it’s a lot of liners right at someone, hard ground balls, things like that. The Cubs have shuffled through pitchers that haven’t been able to do that. They’re completely non-competitive, walking everybody, and they can’t even put together one or two outings at all where they’re getting outs. So, there is value in that. The the clear conclusion though, if he’s still here or if they deal with an injury, whatever, he can’t be pitching in high leverage. Porter Hodgej is already your highest leverage guy. That’s how Craig uses him. Julian Merryweather and Ryan Presley are right there next in terms of like the leverage they’re entering these games in. Uh but if you can’t miss bats at all, you can’t pitch in high leverage. We talked about this. It’s much less of an extreme. But with someone like Adbert Ali, right, even when he was at his best, you and I would say, well, if they make the playoffs, I don’t think he can be your closer cuz you got to get whiffs. He’s like a really strong seventh or eighth inning guy. But those absolute highest leverage, you have to get swing and miss. This wasn’t unlucky from Ryan Presley, but the the key with not getting whiffs is that it opens you up to the unlucky ones. Bleeders through the infield, squibs in the outfield, etc., etc. If you can’t strike guys out, you can’t pitch in high leverage. And right now, Ryan Presley has not shown any ability to do that. No. And the stuff isn’t really a significant drop off either. So, that’s where there’s uneasiness and trying to understand why he’s having this poor performance. Some of the fast ball location is a little bit lower in bulk from what you saw last year, but the stuff actually looks okay. I’m actually surprised he’s not getting more whiffs. The command though is a problem, right? There are times where whether it be the sequencing or what have you, but guys are swinging less at pitches inside the zone and they’re making more contact on pitches both inside and outside the zone. It’s just weird dynamic. I think he just might be injured. And if he continues to have this poor performance, then then then you move on. But I do believe the situation’s a little bit different than past guys because his stuff is still it’s not bad. It’s not great, but it should be at least serviceable. I think if he’s healthy and able to need that. Yeah. I’m asking for a fifth or six inning production. That’s all I’m asking. You need serviceable. It’s it’s definitely a question of like he should not be your closer. He should not be coming in with the bases loaded. And look, like that the extra innings thing, it’s a nightmare for guys that can’t get swing and miss. Guys are already in scoring position. If you can’t get swing and miss, there’s almost no way to prevent them from not getting to third and getting in or at least it being really easy for the other team’s offense to do that against you. So, it it’s just not going to work. And you have guys pushing up that ladder where like at this point, you’d rather see Porter Hodgej, you’d rather see Julian Merryweather, you’d rather see Daniel Palencia in his 17 RA, you’d rather see Brad Killer who’s been great. Uh, so in these last couple minutes on that note, just want to ask you like we’ve seen a lot of these guys, Chris Flexon, Drew Pomearan’s, like what do you think about some of these guys? How are you kind of viewing this bullpen hierarchy? For me, game on the line, I’m going Porter Hodgej first and I’m going Brad Keller second. I don’t know how you’re lining things up, but just curious your thoughts on the the good guys in this bullpen. I’m right there with you. Porter Hodgej to back it up. If there’s a left-handed dominant part of the lineup, I might be trending towards Teobar, Merryweather, and even Pomeran, it depends. If it’s a lefty, lefty lefty situation, let’s say in the seventh or eighth inning, I I might go with like Tebar or Pomerance. And then if it’s a lefty lefty lefty situation, let’s say in the eighth or ninth, I might go Merryweather just because he has that tight slider. If it’s righty, righty, then I’m going to go probably Hodgej with the sweeper. And I think it’ll just be contextual. I really do. Regardless, the bullpen is kind of working itself out, but it’s in a position where by June and July, you are going to need that heavy whiff guy. You’re going to need that bonafide fireman guy. Whether you want to call him a closer or not, you’re going to need one of those guys that just project to be more stable because despite what we’re seeing, there’s some volatility to the bullpen because they have not done it with some semblance of consistency. So, I imagine to project August and September, you would want someone who’s done it recently for one to two seasons prior. Yeah. Uh, but I I again, I do give uh a lot of credit. I I’m very intrigued, you know, and uh excited, I think, by how the Cubs have been bringing these guys up, bringing these guys into the organization, playing around with them. And I mean the Pomeran’s thing just 10 seconds. Fast ball curveball exactly the same as it looked in 2021. He even said it himself. He feels exactly the same as he did from four years ago. I’m starting to think, okay, if you’re healthy and you’re throwing that curveball, that whiff rate, it’s like a 30% whiff rate. That that is going to play up if he’s healthy. Yep. Uh so definitely uh an evolving process, but I think the Cubs have done a really nice job of it and you know, they’ll continue to need to. But it’s good to see some of those early returns on these guys that they brought in and are trying out in these roles cuz as you can see, you know, they brought Ryan Presley over, they made the trade. He said, “I want to be the closer if I’m going to agree to this trade.” And it looks like the Cubs are needing to make a different decision or at least be evolving in that thinking. And that’s where it’s so important that you’ve gotten success out of someone like Brad Keller that you can even think about putting him into higher leverage and using him in those situations. So, a good job all around. So, uh CHO Cubs crew will be back with you on Sunday after the finale here. Uh I will not I don’t believe I will be on that show, but want to give uh a shout out. Happy Mother’s Day to my mom who certainly is still listening uh even at this very late portion of the podcast. You called the Justin Turner thing. She was not happy about it and she was damn right. And that is her Mother’s Day gift. Uh but uh the crew will be back with you on Sunday after the finale with the New York Mets. Enjoy Kate Horton’s debut. Brendan and I will talk to you again next Thursday. And as always, go Cubs. [Music] [Applause] We all s like the mayor.
2 Comments
I dropped Leiter for Horton 10 min ago.
Did not expect a show where PCA means both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Principal Component Analysis