The world’s top players are set to tee off on Thursday for the 2025 PGA Championship.
This year, the calendar’s second major happens to be located at a venue that has treated one of the favorites quite well over the years.
Rory McIlroy, who claimed his first Masters Tournament victory last month, should feel very comfortable at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, as he’s been quite successful there through the years.
Eyes are on the sport’s stars this week, but there are several value picks for your PGA Championship pool. Here’s how it works: One player is selected from each tier of 10 inside the Official World Golf Ranking’s Top 50.
Let’s get to the picks!
Odds from BetMGM.
Tier 1 (1-10) | Rory McIlroy
Odds: +500
I almost picked McIlroy to win The Masters (here’s proof), but was swayed by the numbers and went with someone else. Applying that same strategy to the PGA Championship, McIlroy has to be the selection from the top tier.
One stat in particular jumps off the page, and that’s McIlroy’s number of wins at this venue. He’s won four times in 13 events at Quail Hollow. That’s a batting average above .300. Aside from the wins, he’s also finished T10 or better in five of his other nine starts.
The past wouldn’t hold as much weight if it weren’t also the case that McIlroy is in great form. He’s won three times in nine starts this season, including The Masters, and hasn’t finished lower than T17 in any event this year.
He’s been excellent off the tee. McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained from the tee box and ranks second in this week’s field to Bryson DeChambeau (we’ll discuss him shortly) in true strokes gained off the tee, according to datagolf.com.
Hello, friends. Rory McIlroy just went 56 (!) yards longer than anyone else off No. 1 (and made birdie).
T2. One back. pic.twitter.com/Pwf5M7BjZC
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 12, 2025
In the last 10 years, only two players, Gary Woodland in 2015 and Harris English in 2023, have snagged a top-five finish at this course without gaining strokes off the tee.
Quail Hollow rewards players who can absolutely crush drives, which leads nicely into the next tier’s selection.
Tier 2 (11-20) | Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +800
Because he’s playing on the LIV Golf Tour, DeChambeau is ranked lower in the WGR than he probably should be, which makes him a great pick at this tier.
He is leading the LIV tour with an average driving distance of 333.3 yards, and his 1.98 true strokes gained off the tee this year leads the PGA Championship field.
DeChambeau is also in good form. Here’s how he finished his last four events:
April 6 in Miami: Fifth
April 13 at The Masters: T5
April 27 in Mexico City: T2
May 4 in Korea: First
He hasn’t played at Quail Hollow since the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, but he finished T9 in that event while gaining 1.04 true strokes off the tee, according to datagolf.com.
.@brysondech has been driving greens all year 😅👀#LIVGolf pic.twitter.com/4ueQujS6cG
— LIV Golf (@livgolf_league) May 13, 2025
Tier 3 (21-30) | Min Woo Lee
Odds: +9000
The two options at this tier were both repeat selections from the aforementioned Masters pool picks, Lee and Daniel Berger.
Berger is probably playing better all around golf and is gaining strokes off the tee. But he’s doing so with accuracy as opposed to distance.
I’m scouting for the long ball here, which decidedly tipped the scales to Lee, who ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in average driving distance this season (316.1).
The Australian isn’t the most accurate driver, and the form he’d found with his irons and putter ahead of The Masters hasn’t been there since. But this course rewards players who hit for power, and Lee has had no trouble with that this season.
Min Woo Lee’s 2-iron is a weapon at Sawgrass 🔥 pic.twitter.com/yTtCC5EpO9
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 14, 2025
Tier 4 (31-40) | Andrew Novak
Odds: +15000
Novak won’t be winning any long driving contests, but he’s swinging the sticks as good as anyone on tour right now.
Here’s how he’s finished his last four tournaments:
April 6 at the Valero Texas Open: T3
April 20 at the RBC Heritage: Second
April 27 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Team event): Win
May 11 at the Truist Championship: T17
While Novak’s worst finish over the last month came at his most recent tournament, he closed Round 4 strong, shooting a 64 — the lowest score of any golfer that day.
Since the beginning of April, he ranks seventh in total true strokes gained (2.26) among the PGA Championship field.
What a break 😅
Andrew Novak’s tee shot *almost* went south @Bermuda_Champ pic.twitter.com/ky6sewT26A
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 16, 2024
Tier 5 (41-50) | Mackenzie Hughes
Odds: +20000
Here’s another player who doesn’t fit the power-hitter mold of the earlier picks but does come into the tournament playing some strong golf.
Hughes ranks just below Novak in total true strokes gained (2.02) among the PGA Championship field since April 1.
He’s coming off a T2 finish at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, where his putter was working well.
Hughes also finished T6 last year at Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship.
Wild card | Keith Mitchell
Odds: +10000
Mitchel hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since March’s Valspar Championship. His solid results have been boosted by hot starts at each tournament.
Here’s what he shot in his last four Round 1s (excluding the Zurich):
Truist Championship: 61
Corales Puntacana Championship: 64
Valero Texas Open: 64
Texas Children’s Houston Open: 65
He’s been so good in Round 1s this year that only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has more total true strokes gained (4.56) on opening days, according to datagolf.com.
A hot enough start at the PGA Championship could keep him in the mix.
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
