2025 PGA Championship – Tap In Birdie

In this episode of Tap In Birdie, Brian has Andy Lack on to preview the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, discussing player performances, golf course specifics, and betting strategies. They dive into the strengths and weaknesses of top players such as Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and several others. The conversation also covers historical course data, player comparisons, and personal biases in betting. Additionally, they briefly touch on NBA playoffs, Knicks fan experiences, and personal life updates. The duo navigates through their individual picks, strategies for the week, and addresses audience questions, making it an engaging and insightful show for golf enthusiasts and bettors alike.

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00:00 Introduction and PGA Championship Week
00:25 Quail Hollow: Anticipation and Challenges
02:56 Discussing the Knicks and Personal Life
05:28 Recap of Philly Cricket
08:50 Quail Hollow vs. Other Courses
15:49 Betting Strategies and Player Analysis
32:03 Personal Reflections and Betting Strategies
33:05 Analyzing Xander Schauffele’s Chances
35:12 Debating Colin Morikawa’s Potential
37:15 Discussing Hideki Matsuyama’s Strengths
38:53 Evaluating Justin Thomas and Other Contenders
40:19 Long Shots and Undervalued Players
44:47 Final Thoughts and Personal Updates

All right, we are live. Tap and birdie PGA Championship week. I’m here with dear friend and boss Andy Black. How are you? I’m good, man. I you know uh Quail Hollow, huge week. Yeah, I I um we’ll talk about it, man. And I I just this having um a major championship at a golf course where we know it really well and we have a ton of data on it. At the beginning of the week, I was like, “Oh my gosh, this is going to be awesome. It’s going to make my life so much easier. I’m not going to have to work half as hard as how how I would normally work on a major championship week when nobody knows the golf course.” Um, but now we’ve kind of got here and it’s like I have nothing more to say about Quail Hollow. So Hollow. Yeah. I honestly think, you know, after Rory winning the Masters, we were kind of due for a dud. And I know nothing is a golf shot hasn’t been hit yet, but this is definitely the least anticipated major I can really. Does it feel like a major week to you? It does not feel like a major week. I think most people are very much in agreement there um of just like oh I didn’t even know the PGA championship was uh next week and you know you you touched on it but I think the the best part of major championships for people like me and you are that we get a new course um we got something different than what we see every single week and um not getting that this week with quail is is a bit tough and makes it a little bit tough to get up for it. Well, I I mean, we got it last week for Philly cricket, I guess. I mean, there was a trade-off there, but it it feels like the anticipation for Philly cricket um was a lot higher than there was. And and obviously that’s always going to be the case. My numbers are always going to be the best when it’s a golf course that nobody knows about because that’s when people have the most interest in the stuff that I do. Um, but like I don’t know. I would love to come on and zag and you know tell you all of these things about Quail Hollow and how, you know, I’m talking to members in Morse code about how it’s so much different than what everybody else thinks and I have all of this um top top-notch secret information about how Quail Hollow distance doesn’t actually matter and it’s just like it’s not I that’s not the case. It is not the case. It’s the most straight. If this wasn’t a major championship, I would think Quail Hollow is one of the most straightforward handicaps just for a regular signature event. So, here we are. And we don’t I’ve also found out that we don’t need to play the tournament either because we’ve all decided who’s going to win. Decided. Um could we break down the first quarter Nick Celtics? Um I was watching some they look decent. Um, they got to step up on D a little bit. But Abby, honestly, I I know you’ve had a lot of stuff going on this year. You started a company. You know, we’re all very proud of you. Haven’t heard any Knicks chatter from you? Like literally, like I don’t even know if you’re a Knicks fan. And that’s kind of the one sports team you actually like. I got something out of you after the game to win. But like, where are you at with your Knicks fandom right now? It’s been bad. I used to there was a time in my life where I watched not only did I watch every single regular season Knicks game but I also watched the Knicks film school postgame podcast like um as you know isn has consumed my life to some would say my girlfriend would say the brink of insanity Natalie would say yeah and so you know I’m currently working right now on creating more balance in my life where the time and effort that I put into the company um is a little bit more equal and congruent to the other things in my life that used to bring me a lot of joy like basketball and golfing. Yeah. So, I’m working on that balance. Um it’s not going to happen overnight. Um but yeah, I’m excited to watch the rest of this game after we finish. I didn’t think we were going to win this series to be honest with you, but I mean I think the Celtics being minus 1,000 I mean I think that kind of checks out. Um like I don’t think many people thought the Knicks have a chance, but look, they got to win tonight. Must-win game for the Knicks. Do we? Aren’t we up to one? Must I think it’s a must-win game. I mean, you got to take one at home. You’re not going to win, you know, the next two in like I I think tonight’s a must-win for the Knicks. I No, I’m I’m with you. I mean, 3-1 would be really nice. Um, I I I got to say this team, though, like I haven’t been able to fall in love with this team the way that I have with Knicks teams in the past and and it seems like this is our most complete team on paper. Um, but the Celtics are just so tough. So, anyway, um, you know, I’m hopeful and excited to watch the rest of the game, but let’s talk let’s talk Bryson. No, like genuinely I I don’t and again this is a major championship pot. I know a lot of people, you know, want to listen. You know, this is probably the least I think we have to say about a major championship in a long time. Um I, you know, would like to do a quick recap of Philly Crick. Yeah. Um you know, I nice tilly design. Um, you know, I thought it held up decently well. You know, as Kyle told us, Ricky Fowler was on pace to shoot 45 on I think we all overreacted there first in fairness. Um, but I think, you know, the challenge of the Greens really stood up well. Like I think Tilling always has pretty interesting greens except for Beth Paige Black. Um, but like these guys were playing a lot of fivefooters well outside the hole. Um the rough was decently thick. You add some win there. The finishing stretch was pretty tough. Like I I thought, you know, the winning score was 16 under like I thought it was going to be like midscoring kind of like that. Like I thought it held up really well. It was really a solid venue. Um I I enjoyed Philly Correct last week to be honest. What was it what was it like in person uh for fans? Like did you feel like you could get good vantage points and like see the crowding was bad? Like anytime you mess with the actual routing of the course, like it’s did not flow well. Like there were a lot of dead spots where you just like could not see the hole really. Um and like they were kind of interwoven. What? Like it was bad routing. Is what architect is known best for their routing? Uh probably Ali Mack. Probably Ali Mac. Okay. Yeah. McKenzie. I mean modern Corin Cshaw, but Ali Mac. I mean, here’s the thing about Tilly, and you know this because you’ve played, in my opinion, Tilling’s Tilling has greatest course, which is Somerset Hills. Really? Yeah. Somerset Hills is unbelievable, Brian. Did you not like Somerset? No, it was a great It was a great course. I Yeah, I I feel um I feel like you might have not had the experience at Somerset than I did because of Till’s Greens. I remember needed to need I remember you having a difficult time on the greens and I always have a difficult time on tilling has greens. I mean that’s what makes his greens so special and I think that um that showed at least for professional golfers, right? Like if you’re watching that golf tournament and you are like, “Oh, this is the same type of golf course that we see on the PGA Tour every week.” Like I don’t know what to tell you. Like these guys, as you mentioned, are having to putt like so delicately. There was a real penalty if you missed on the wrong side of the hole. Um if you were above the hole, like you probably remember Kantlay shot on 18 where he hit that four iron and it was a really good shot, but it was behind the hole and he left himself with like a 50ft putt. That’s an insanely hard two putt. and he didn’t two putt it. And that’s the type of thing that you’re going to get at Philly Cre that you wouldn’t get at a regular PGA Tour course. Like most of those 40footers for them are like super easy two putts and like you saw it at Philly Creek like the greens make a real difference. Yeah. No, it it was great. And you know, and what I really liked about it is again I like when different styles of play can win. I like when Seaka can win. And when you get to this week, it’s like the absolute perfect just position because I don’t think Sepraka can win this week. I don’t think a guy that is that short off the tea can win at a place like Quail Hollow. And it’s really frustrating to be completely honest because I feel like the way the PGA and US Open are trending, there are just so few people that can actually win the tournament with how long it is and it doesn’t make it as fun of a tournament to handicap in my opinion than places where a lot of different styles of play can get it done like TPC Srass or Travelers or Philly Cricket or Heritage like it. That’s better golf in my opinion. It was like, yo, like we need this at like 7,600 yards. Like, I’m out. I’m out. Well, I will say this, Brian, and I want to get your thoughts on this because I think both of us are probably going to be much bigger fans of Oakmont in a couple weeks than we are of Quail. Quail to me is still the type of golf course and we’ll get into the players like I am very much of the belief that this is really between three players but in like historically at Quail Hollow this is a golf course that you can get nuts hot with your putter and go out and win the golf tournament with your putter. Like historically, statistically, it actually has been more spike putting even than it has been spike approach play. So, I do think this I don’t think it’s going to happen. Obviously, I I think it’s going to be one of those three, but I do think even like if you’re choosing between this and Oakmont at least, which is more wide open for players not named Bryson, Rory, and Scotty, I would still say Quail is more wide open than Oakmont. Is that fair? Yeah, I do because I do think the way the, you know, the US Open is trending like we have not seen an elite driver not win in a really long time. And that’s just tough. And you know, I’m hoping cuz that’s what that’s what’s tough for me honestly this week is like and I know the big three are kind of in a category of their own, but I think this course with the length and with the amount of water and rain like it didn’t rain like drizzle today. It was like an absolute death atmospheric river. Yeah. Like that’s that’s where I’m really struggling betting guys down the board that might be average distance off the T. So, where are you on someone that is not above average distance? Someone like, you know, I know Colin’s a little bit shorter, but maybe like JT or can’t length winning Quail Hollow this week. Take out, you know, the top three in terms of how far do you have to drive the ball to actually hold the trophy at the end of the week. this week. C anyone can win. Like I It’s not like Oakmont where I think certain players are dead on arrival. I’m not betting any of those guys, but like has the pendulum I mean because this week, Brian, the the narrative um in terms of the market and I’m starting to see it once I start doing the math with ownership. I mean the narrative of distance is consensus. Like everybody has basically decided this is exactly how the golf course is going to play and these are the stats that matters and you know like my whole career has been based on saying actually no it’s going to play this way but I can’t really do that with Quail Hollow. that is tremendously predictive based on distance. And if you go through the holes and actually look at the architecture, I would argue that there’s certain holes um at Quail Hollow where like you get even like a super boost if you hit it like 3:30. Like the first hole I’ve used as an example before, the first hole is a hole that Rory could literally have. He had gap wedged into it on Sunday last year. He could have a Rory could literally have a gap wedge on the first hole and like a shorter player could have 220 yards in on their approach shot from the other corner of the dog leg. So, as far as like um it’s just your your path is narrower, right? So, you’re just going to need and somebody is going to do it. Like I know Kyle believes it’s Patrick Reed, but I’m telling you right now, mark my words, there will be somebody in the top five to 10, you know, Bridgemond last week that blacks out on the greens. Like, you can do that at this golf course. Um, but no, I mean, I think distance is a tremendous advantage. Now, the the only the only the next question from there is like how do you you know, in DFS, well, betting, it doesn’t matter. You’re just playing against the the Bucks. Yeah. Like I just I don’t really remember, you know, distance being this much of a prerequisite at Oakhill, Ocean Course. Um I think I think people are just acting like like this golf course doesn’t favor distance like demonstrabably more than Oakill. I know that’s what like that but like I felt like more people could win at Oakill. Like even though that might have not been I think more people can win at Quail Hollow than Oakill. I think yes 100%. Oakill is a harder Quail Hollow’s not that hard of a golf course. Quail Hollow is going to be one this week at like 15 under. Yeah, Quail Hollow. Oakill is way harder than Quail Hollow. Way harder. And well, the other thing about Oakill too is they played in rain for a lot of it. Um, I don’t know if they’re going to play in rain in Quail Hollow, but like you saw it with Philly Craig. If they play through rain, that’ll make the scoring really hard. Um, it’s supposed to rain during the tournament this week, too. Thursday. Yeah. Yeah. So, kill. Yeah. So, I I am again, I’m pronouncing on the pod and it’s it’s a true no beef situation. I’m I’m going to spray down the board. I I You’re not betting Bryson. I’m not betting I can’t There’s not even a number available for me to bet. I’m not betting. That makes me so happy. Like I just I can’t do it. I feel naked without it. Like I feel like I’m on You shouldn’t People need to stop. I’m not getting into Bryson yet. I’m not getting into Bryson yet. I’m wait. We’re waiting. We’re waiting on the Bryson thing. We’re waiting. Okay. I mean, I think for the for the thousand plus people watching the show that I would say of the 1,200 and 33 people watching, probably 1,232 have Bryson. So, we probably should talk about him at some point. I we will get into Brian. I’m just I’m not there yet. But I, you know, I know your your betting strategy this week I again, and I’m not expecting a winner necessarily, but I feel like this week I’m just going to maybe pick a guy in the 20s, bet maybe like a couple guys in the 40s and kind of like I don’t feel great about it is my overall. I That’s why I’m betting Scotty. I I felt like I was putting the clown makeup on when I was trying to build a card that way. And I haven’t been able to hit winners that way all year. Like I put together these beautiful cards every single week with great CLV doesn’t do in golf because I get CLV out my ass every single week. I always beat the market. They always are like these great bets that I feel like and they never win. And I don’t think anybody, we can talk about like how I would call the best of the rest, but how did you consider at all just taking slightly worse numbers without the big three potentially I might cuz I’m I’m wide open right now. Like I genuinely I had like eight cors lights at dinner and I saw Decki 48 to1 after he shot seven. I was like it was like yeah I mean I’m betting this like I I think it’s a good number. What is he right now? Other than that I think he’s like around 40. like it’s not anything crazy, but I I think it’s you know what I think what you have to do for these majors and I I’m really just doing it this time because the masters was such a like just miss for me. Like I just made so many stupid decisions at the masters where it was like the peak of feeling the stresses of ISN and trying to like make the most sound logical picks and do a good job for everybody instead. And I had been on Rory last year at the Masters and I proclaimed after, you know, the whole Rory thing I was never going to do it again. And it’s like every time I closed my eyes and thought about who’s going to win the Masters, it was always Rory. Rory, Rory, Rory, Roy, Rory. Who do you think’s gonna win this major? Like, when you close your eyes, like who’s winning the major? Um, his name starts with a B. You think it’s going to be off on YouTube? Okay. I just I like I again I my thing with Bryson is that I just think he’s due to win a major that’s not the US Open. And this is probably his best like Aronomic next year. It’s like whatever. Like Frisco, yeah, he probably has a good chance or whatever. Like it just feels like Bryson’s time is now in the way. Can I ask you a question is Yeah. Do you think he’s more due than Scotty? I mean, because I’m with you like I look at this in a vacuum. Yeah. I mean, but if you basically look at it like, okay, there’s a lot of guys between the ages of 26 and 34 that have two majors, right? this like mini generation where they all are at the same spot right now with two majors. You have Xander, Scotty, Bryson, Ron, Justin Thomas, Colin. All of those guys are stuck on two, right? Zack Johnson Cabrera, Zack Johnson. So, so of that group, who’s the best of that era, who deserves to get to three first? For me, it’s Scotty. Yeah, I I I get that. I I do. Um, you know, my biggest concern with Scotty would be, you know, him not having any sort of affinity for Quail Hollow, which some players do, which I is unique to this major in one sense. And I mean, he’s obviously one of the best drivers of the ball in the world. Like, you don’t think that’s going to be an issue? Him not saying Quail Hollow. No, that that and like his his the the fact that he’s shorter than Bryson and Rory. No, because he’s so much of a better long iron player than them and he’s not short to the point like I would say there’s no like if if um if Scotty’s distance is a one or a zero, it’s a one. Like Bryson and Rory are like twos. Like they’re like jumping off the page with the advantage that they have. But over the average player in this field, Scotty Sheffller, of the 150 guys, Scotty Sheffller is 25th in carry distance. Like his distance is an advantage. Any straighter any straighter. And maybe there’s one or two holes where he doesn’t catch a speed slot in a way that I mean the I I don’t know if we’re doing the whole Scotty thing now, but the best case that I would give for Scotty is that like Brian Scotty is the best PGA Tour player ever, right? And this is not a major championship golf course. This is a I like that take. This is an overseated PGA Tour golf course. And we think about what are the times where Scotty can get tripped up and it’s adversity, right? It’s maybe wind at an open championship. It’s Pinehurst where if you miss the fairway, you have all these random and uneven lies that gets him frustrated. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. This is a signature event with overseated rough, overseated green. I mean, quite literally, it is all out in front of you. And SC, what does Scotty love more than anybody else in the world is controllable outcomes. And Quail Hollow time after time is going to give you controllable outcomes. The rough being overseated is a gamecher for Scotty because when the rough is overseated, he’s going to have the same lie out of the rough every single time. And he didn’t have that at Pinehurst. He doesn’t get that at an open championship. So why does Scotty dominate? I mean, the long iron percentage is the same amount of long irons that he had at Craig Ranch. It’s it’s it’s harder than Craig Ranch, but it’s the same architecture style. No, I I look um That was a good Scotty cell because we hadn’t really I hadn’t really gotten your Scotty cell. I I I still have my fast ball sometimes. Um, no, but like that that genuinely is a good um Scotty cell and he is at, you know, a bettable um number to a certain extent and um you know he you know had the seventh best PGA Tour performance ever in his last um start out. So I get that. No beef with the Scotty B. I’m not going to bet him. Um but I I have no beef with the bat. I like the zag off Scotty and Bryson. Bryson, would you just in a total vacuum, let’s forget everything else. Let’s forget odds. Talking strict vacuum. Would you would you Who do you like more to root for as a golfer? Because I don’t really like love either of them. But who do you like? Yeah. Who do you like more to root for? I think it’s Bryson, man. Fair enough. And you’ve had success with Bryson and like You’ve also had success with Scotty. You hit him at the Masters. Like, no, that doesn’t You were We both were there for Scotty’s first PJ Tour win ever. Yeah. No, I I genuinely my I genuinely think Scotty is a good human being and he is interesting if you ask him the right questions and his golf elicits a lot of emotion out of me. Yeah. But I’m not like But like I’m not gonna like tilt him if he like plays super well this week. Like it just like is what it is. like he’s just seriously good. Like some would say I invented Scotty Sheffller like summer 2021 said he was better than H like you know. So these you know are things plus 150 underdog in Sunday singles to John Rom going out last and we hammered it. Yeah that was um that was some straits. So you know let’s say Rory doesn’t win the Masters. He finishes T7 like doesn’t ever contend like just kind of plays well. Where are you at with um Rory winning Quail? Like, is he more or less likely to win Quail after winning the Masters? Uh, I’m never I was I never like envisioned in my mind this concept of like Rory winning the Masters and then going on a run. I I’m not saying it’s not possible, but like I feel like a lot of people he won the Masters and then a lot of people are like floodgates. Like the weights off his shoulders. Like I could see him ripping off three, four, five majors. I never my mind never went there. Like I I just Is it in the range of outcomes? Yes. Um, and you know, is he, in my opinion, like at worst the second or third most likely player to win the golf? He’s going to be there. Um, he wasn’t there in in 2017. Yeah. You know, he Do you know the last time that Rory hasn’t been um relevant in a US major? So, like US Open or PGA Championship, like the last time that Rory had like a T34, Harding Park, um, Kiwa in 2021. Yeah, he sucked at Kia. I remember. Yeah, Kiwa in 2021. Um, it’s really hard to say this with Quail because he’s like been the king of Quail, but I almost think he maybe disappoints at this one. And then you know Oakman is just such a good golf course. I mean he’s the great he’s the best US Open player in the world. I mean not the question like there’s not Rory is the best US Open player in the world and he will be for the next four years. Um yeah I you know I don’t know with who do you who do you think just total vacuum is more likely to win the event, Scotty or Rory? And it’s Rory. Okay. I I’m not going to argue big time though with you. like Tria got me um situation. Um no, I don’t know. You know, I I I could see Rory T7 um this week. I don’t know if um you know, this is his saloo. I’m super scared of him. U but it will be, you know, a good litmus test. You know, Sia on no layup. Just get in the mix. Just get in the mix. You can’t fire a bad first round. Like just get in the mix this week and see what happens. Like it’s not like a front running, you know, major type situation or anything. So Bryson um you know I’ve been on him a lot for his majors. Um you know had him 6 I I’ll do the the Mayo. Had him 66 at PGA finished runner up. Had him US Open. Had him Masters. Um gave me great sweats at all of them. I truly the outright price right now is absurd. It’s nine to one. It’s absurd. That is the best number on Bryson. And there is a part of me that is like that. I mean, I cannot bet that. I just never bet a future on him. I didn’t bet any number. I was lazy. I’m broke. Yeah. Well, I was just going to say like we sat there and did our Masters recap together. It’s on. We have video evidence of it of me, you and Kyle sitting there and saying to each other, Bryson is going to close at Quail as the third favorite. I didn’t think it would be eight to one. I didn’t think it would be 8 n to one. I really did not. I mean, I know he won, you know, live South Korea, like, you know, you can’t always factor that in. Um, but the price now is is absurd. I mean, it’s just absolutely I think it I I think it always kind of should have been 12. Like now it’s like at eight or nine it’s like Jesus. But like I did we did talk about that where I was like I think the true odds here of the PGA are probably like Rory and Bryson around five or six. And I think you have this was back when Bryson was behind Levig and Colin and we were we all cuz I you agreed with me and Kyle agreed with Yeah. and Rom. He was behind Levig, Colin and Rom. And we were all like Bryson should be third on the odds board. He should be 12. And of course now you’re sitting here and saying like it, you know, listen, the people that have 17 plus on Bryson should be feeling pretty damn good. Like some of those people that have even 20 plus on Bryson should be feeling pretty damn good. Do I have an insane amount of regrets that I didn’t make that bet despite the fact that I knew that he was heading quickly in this direction? I am just not somebody that bets futures and that works for me. I know a lot of people be and there are a lot of people that I know that are hanging on right now to like 14 to ones on John Roms and 25 to1 ones on Victor Havlin. So people look at these futures like they paint this very rosy picture of futures but the reality of the situation is that most people who bet futures don’t get CLV. They make really bad bets and then they just pretend like it never happened and create a new card starting major week. So yeah, you know, if I was somebody who would bet futures, you would get those rare opportunities where you get that Bryson 20 to1 and a great number, but it’s not the way I bet. It never has been the way I bet. Um, and you know, if anything, like I thought about a Bryson 14 on Sunday after you were sending. Yeah. I mean, we let’s talk about course fit for a second, like or or the golf, right? Because everyone seems seems like that everyone’s just decided the tournaments happen, but there’s still golf that needs to be played. And from a golf perspective, in the same way that I sold to you, Scotty Sheffller, in my opinion, it’s very, and I spend more time on breaking down players in golf courses, you know, than anyone. It’s very difficult for me to make an intelligent and cohesive case against Bryson’s golf fit on this golf course because the one thing that you’re going to say about him is he’s not as good of an approach player as Rory and Bryson and he’s not. But he finished top five at the Masters losing four strokes on which is a way harder approach course and he’s had some better approach weeks since like he can figure it out. He’s Yeah, he’s he’s he’s improved um tremendously on these golf courses with short grass, right? You know, he’s he’s prom improved tremendously at Augusta and and stuff like that. So, um he’s going to be tough to beat. It’s like he’s going to be very tough to beat this week and I don’t feel great about it. I do feel like he he’s very likely to be in the mix and win. I would not be surprised in the least if he won at all. Um, but you know, I’m like, where are you if Bryson wins? Like, are you going to a retreat like your mom in Northern California where there’s like five people and like a no talking place? Like, I’m like, what’s your well-being like if Bryson wins or just like it’s just money? It’s just golf. It’s just golf betting. I I I think I think I can I can live with the reason why I didn’t want to be on Bryson this week. And that’s because um there’s something in my being that I don’t know if I’ve quite totally figured out yet, but I just need to zag here. And something deep inside of me intrinsically is telling me to zag. Um, okay. And and and and I I think I can live with it. I do. No, that’s fine. Like at this point, if he wins, it’s just like, yo, like would have loved to be on that one. That was pretty obvious, but you know, Monday morning, you know, I I’m not going to I can’t bet a nine to one. I’m just not going to do that. I mean, I can literally, but I’m just like I’m not going to do that. Um, so that I think that’s where kind of betting the without probably helps um a little bit like with my well-being and everything. So, we’ll see. Um, there are some numbers on these next guys that are kind of there. Um, I’m going to say my favorite out of the 20 to 30 group is Xander Schoffé to be completely honest. I mean, this guy’s lost to two people at Quail Hollow the past two years and two guys that went absolutely berserk and played unbelievable golf tournaments. Um, this is a place he really likes. He has the affinity for it. He has the history here. Um I know he’s coming off an injury, but he’s played pretty solid this year. One of the best you best major players um of this current generation. I’m thinking about betting Xander 22 to1. Brian, do you really think Xander is going to win three out of the last five majors? No. But you know, crazier things have happened. Crazier things have happened. And I was diving into some of the golf course stuff this afternoon. And I do think like if I was building a case just purely on the golf course stuff, forget the narratives of he can’t win another PJ. Talking vacuum here. Yes. Um I think Quail Hollow is a tremendous golf course for Xander Shley. Um he has two runner-ups here. He has that same type of ball flight that Rory and Bryson and Benon do where he can hit a high draw and get a lot of roll out on some of those right to left moving par4s. Um, his game looked pretty good at Philly Cricut. I wouldn’t say it looked great. Like it looked pretty good. And I I that’s why I ultimately decided upon Scotty because I just feel like with all of these guys, unless they catch an insanely hot putter, which none of them have been doing, I just feel like Xander and Rom and Colin and Kantlay. I feel like they’re kind of just gearing up. And I think Xander may need a couple more weeks. I think he’s going to win. I think he’s gonna win this summer, but I don’t know if he’s ready to win. Yeah, I I I kind of agree. I do. I like I really don’t know what I’m gonna do. Next question. Is Colin too short to win here? Can Colin win here? Um, yeah, but I don’t have heavy consideration. Do you Are you thinking about him? I’m thinking about He could be like Forgotten Elite vibes. Could be Forgotten Elite. Second start with the new Caddy. Um, you know, not not much history to speak of here. I do like Colin. If I had to like I’m not betting Ram. I’m not betting JT. Like those would be the two that I’m kind of like swimming around maybe betting one of them. And that’s where I wish the course was like 300 yards shorter. And I would definitely bet Colin, but I I just I don’t know if he’s too short to win here. I just don’t know. I think the problem with Colin is I would think of it less that he’s not too short. Like I almost to be honest with you after watching him and tracking him last week, I almost have more concerns about his ability to make enough putts. Yeah. To win right now. Like do you ever think if we just reduce Quail to like a stupid driver putter golf course, is that where you envision Colin winning? It’s not. That’s my problem, right? Is it’s like I I really think and this is why like I legitimately do think and I know you’re not an eachway guy, but like if you think about it, um guys like Thomas Dietri and you know, Robert McIntyre at Valhall last year cashed these like giant eachway prices with top fives because they just stupidly, mindlessly driver putter. Like you could do that at Quail. Quail is more sim this version of Quail is more similar to Valh Hollow last year than it is to I don’t know you know Oakmont or something like that. Like it you really you really can get stupid hot with the putter and that’s why I think in that and Xander’s a better putter so I’m kind of leaning that way. Yeah. Um a little bit to be honest. Um so I I’ll give the Deki Cell. Um, this guy has the longest made cut streak in majors currently. He’s won three signature events in the past year, beaten the best fields in golf. Um, played well at the 2017 um, place here. I know it’s a different golf course, but he still has some familiarity with the course. The Irons were really good last week. Um, he’s spiked putting before. I mean, he’s not consistently a great putter, but he can spike. Um, and I think Decky’s a two major guy. get me a second major deck. He 48 to1. I believe in his ability to win this golf tournament. Um, one of the best long iron players in the entire world. Um, has won on Bermuda before. I I really like Deki. Um, but so I’m that that’s my my Deckey case. Um, I think Decki has the best short game in the world right now. I don’t know if this is a pure short game course. He was awesome at quail in 2017, but I think this golf course is going to play differently than it did clearly in 2017. I think it’s a good course fed. I I again it’s like do you think Well, in fairness, Hideki’s one win this season was um central contest on Bermuda. Correct. So um yeah, I I do you think he’s a two major guy? I do. I do. I do think he’s a major guy. I do too. I don’t I don’t know if it’s gonna happen this week. Yeah. I don’t know. Wait, but like if he ever wins another major, Vic, did we cross off JT? Because I think I’m a little lower on JT than Consensus. I Yeah, I mean, again, me and Kyle were talking about this this weekend. Like, I just I don’t think he’s going to win three PGAs. I don’t think he’s gonna win two at Quail. I think he’s long enough. I think he’s a good enough iron player. I think he’s a good enough punter. I just don’t think he’s gonna win. I agree with you. This is an outside the vacuum thought. I have some concerns about the way that he’s driving the ball if this golf course if they don’t cut the rough over the weekend down the stretch like you saw at Philly Craig um when you get a lot of rain earlier in the week and based on what I’m hearing from members like the rough height is the rough height that they get on Thursday and then they’re not going to do that much mowing. So by Sunday you could get exactly what you got at Philly Cre where the rough is voluminous, right? Um and he I don’t think he can hit enough fairways right now down the stretch. Can I just I think we need to touch on them because like I’ll be honest with you. Um I don’t have like a ton of um massive thoughts about like the bottom of the board or long shots anyway. So, I’d rather spend more time here. Um, do you have any interest in the web contingent because I think they might be a tad undervalued on this golf course? Yeah. I mean, like I could see Neman playing well. Like I I think did you did you did you just jump right past guys like Rom and Brooks and Hatton and just jump past them? Like I think Rahm is absolutely no chance. I think Brooks probably has no chance. Um I don’t agree that Rom has no chance. Yeah, I I do. I I don’t know. I I I am more in the I just I don’t think he’s going to win um this major um you know US Open maybe next year or something going on. But no, I mean he needs to get in the mix at a major um for his career. But I’m I’m very like he’s easily my least favorite in the 20s. Like I have really no interest um at all. Like not even a question. You you like Levig more than Rahm? Yeah, I guess. I mean, it’s a good course for Blood. I mean, the game is bad right now. I don’t know how we won Tori and ruined my life, but like, yeah, I I I don’t know. I mean, yeah, Rahm’s probably more likely to play well. Like, I I really am pretty low on both of them, but Lud um yeah, I the game is not there. I’m good on Lud. Um, we have a question. Well, I was I’ll probably bet you do you want to do Pat or or Jordan first because we have a question about Jordan. Yeah, I um Yeah, I I mean Jordan was great at the President’s Cup here. Completely different golf course, but he went five and0. He was like one of their best um point scorers. He’s playing well. He’s playing pretty good. And like this version of Jordan Spirly make the argument that he is a driver putter guy. Yeah. Like that’s why I bet him at Nelson good actually. The driver’s been really good. That’s why I bet him at He was good at I know Scotty won by nine and we’ve made a joke a couple swings here and there like Yeah, he was really I was really impressed by him and then I didn’t think Billy Krek was ever a good golf course for him. He’s not under serious consideration for me this week. Um and then can’t I mean you watched him in person. How close do you think he is? Because he’s such an Brian. Like, yeah, I was bad. He’s he’s really good. Like, he really is really good at golf. And Fleetwood is too. These guys are these guys ability to finish top 20 on command when guys like Levig and Morawa and JT throw in stinkers all the time. And these guys like Fle like Kantlay is playing really good from a ball striking perspective. This is some of the best that Canlay’s ever hit the ball in his entire career. He contended at a major on, you know, Southeastern champion Bermuda at Pinehurst. I’m gonna bet I’ll bet him. Yeah. I don’t know. What What do you think your card looks like if you’re not betting top three? Um Pat 100% Pat to be honest with you and this is why this is why I’m not doing it because I couldn’t bring I this was my card last week and I couldn’t bring myself to do it again this week like in terms of the golf course fits like it’d be Pat and Xander and I that just feels so we’re kind of on the same lane. We are. I mean, I think our break but the everyone’s breakdown of Quail Hollow is the, you know, the same. Um, the overwhelming narrative that I created like Yeah. Yeah. Right. Um, the pendulum I swung is swung too far. Swung too far on the swing that I swung. Yeah. Um I That’s I just couldn’t I couldn’t trot out a Xander. Like you really felt like you were putting on the clown makeup. I I I did. I just think Scotty’s gonna kind of kick their ass. Um Okay, I’m biased. Yeah. Um or Bryson kicks their ass or Rory kicks their ass. I mean, I don’t know, Brian. The thing that’s been really difficult for me because um my process for breaking down golf courses like it’s as dialed as it’s ever been and and I can’t get the winner right to save my life. Um, but it’s like there’s been so many times this year where I’ve said to myself, “Wow, I really think the next tier after Scotty and Rory is like super super overvalued, right?” And they have been, right? Like they don’t win at the rate. like this business of Colin Marawa being 12 to 16 to1 all year when he hasn’t won in two years and all of these guys you know never winning in the 20s like okay stop betting those guys and then you pick the course fits in the 50s like I created because seap and Lowry like those were the iron players I wanted and at the her like it just and then JT finally wins at 20 and that range does hit it. It’s just like you’re going to drive yourself crazy trying to figure it out. And at the end of the day, when I close my eyes, I just think Scotty is the best player of this generation. Of all the guys at two majors, he should get to three first. And it’s an amazing golf course. And I don’t want to bet Bryson. I don’t want I don’t want to root for Bryson. I don’t want to do it. No, I get it. I I I get it. I I I’m higher on Scotty than um you know, I once was to to start um a little bit. Can I ask Can I ask you a question? Like what was different about Augusta when you bet him at four to one? Like you felt that much better in him at Augusta than you do this week? Yeah, I mean it was Yeah, I mean he’s just the king of Augusta and he like won a bunch of times before that. Um, so that was I mean he did look good in Grant against Gran Horvad on YouTube. Like didn’t watch Was it good? Yeah, it was good. I like I Scotty was in his element. Like I think I think you should watch it because I think you’ll you’ll want to root for him a little bit more this week. I to be honest Grant Horvat’s like kind of black. Like Yeah, I’m I’m I like really don’t I really don’t I can’t watch the guy. You’re out. I just don’t like him. Like I I just I’ve tried before and he just doesn’t do it for me. I don’t know. That type of YouTube content, the like fourman scramble and and breaking 50. It just like it doesn’t. Yeah. But well, him playing Scotty 1 v one I think is good because Scotty is very open about his golf game and how he attacks courses and like his thought process and it was like one of the most candid Scotties I’ve ever seen. So, I think you should watch it to get a little, you know, rapport um with him before. To be completely honest, Connor, no slander. He’s just he’s not for me. Um I’m sure he’s he’s very popular and I’m sure there are a lot of people that True. No beef situation. No beef at all. Honestly, the things that I like watching on YouTube, you probably wouldn’t like and and I’m okay with that. You know, I like the strapped and and fried egg stuff and I know that’s not for everyone, too. So, everyone has their things. Yeah. Don’t don’t yuck my yum. Like, don’t don’t yuck my yuck. Um, you know, I I I get that. Um, to a certain extent. Can Patrick Reed win? Can Minu Lee win? Shout out to Tom and Marty’s. Dan Burgerer, can he finish top 20? Like, yeah, Dan Burgerer. Can Are you betting Burger? Because Dude, dude, because whatever. He finished T1. At no point was he ever even relevant in the golf tournament. Like it was one of the most unimpressive T11s I’ve ever seen in my entire life. And last week was a better golf course for him. And I also feel like we’ve been betting Dan Burgerer because of his finishes. And there really haven’t been like even heritage. It’s a lot of it’s a lot of backing. It’s a lot of a true like so showdown Sunday like maybe repetit but like it’s not even a good T11 to be honest because a lot of backing. Like Datagoff likes him like whatever. No, no real beef. Um Datag sucks at this sometimes, man. Beef. No, not really. But no, their live their odds don’t really make sense. Yeah. Again, I’m not here to yuck someone’s yum. I don’t I wouldn’t make that like a live or die part of your process. I think it’s fun to look at as you Yeah. I I agree. which I don’t think it is for you by the way. Yeah. Um um no like Yeah, it’s it’s tough when they say you know Levig should be 60 to1. Um you know it’s just kind of like okay well like no book’s ever going to price him at 60 to1. Um Connor’s he makes it okay. He’s been playing some good golf. Sure. Yeah. Where okay where where are we on Hoffland? RK’s on him. Everyone knows RK’s on him. I think he’s someone I could be swimming around 55 um to one. He at the last two PGA championships. He was right there at Oakill. He was right there. Like he likes these setups. They’re signs. It’s not like, you know, the irons are terrible. Like the putters really let him down um to a certain extent, but last week he was good on approach. The approach has been really good. Around the green doesn’t really matter. Yeah. I mean, straight up like 55 is just a good number. Like remember last year at the PGA when Havlin was in form and we bet him at 50 to1 because he hit his irons well at Quail. Correct. And he almost won. Um I will say this, I was watching him early on Sunday morning on PGA Tour Live because he was going out really early. He is like such an like he just I it wasn’t totally passing the eye test for me. Okay. It just it it seems it seems like he’s a few minor details off, but I think as an outright bet, um he’s got a really high ceiling and a low floor. And I think at 55 to1, 55 is probably anytime Victor gets 50 plus, you should probably consider making that bet. Yeah. Yeah. It’s something I’m I’m thinking about. Nothing. I’m I’m super um interested. I want you to bet Scotty so bad. I’m not. But I’m not. I’ll bet like a Decky Scotty um dual forecast. Okay, I’ll take that. Like nobody wants to join me on Scotty. No one. Yeah. No one. Yeah. I mean what like what is your buy number on Scotty? Yeah. I mean I know you’re gonna bet I just think he’s gonna win. I don’t care. Um I don’t know. Would you think like a get a plus 550? What is What is his best right now? I think 5 to one. There’s a 5 to1. I checked on my He’s 550 on bet online. Yeah, I’ll bet that. Yeah, I could get some crypto down. Yeah, it’s really not like it’s a little bit more expensive. Like you always try and get the seven to one, but you only bet one guy. I think I think I bet him at a shorter number at Pinehurst. Um yeah, I think that was great. That was a great bet. Yeah, that was a great bet. Yeah, that was that was a tough um one. I mean, I’m I’m pretty good. Um Oh my god. You like Pendy? You like m like laid just bombs down the board? Um Joerger, Pendy, D. I like Y. I always like Yags. Cam Young. I like Cam Young. I don’t I’m not totally there yet. I get it. I know people like Cam Young. I’d probably rather play Yags. Um, there was one other guy that I really I like Benon a lot. Okay. I really like Benon. You’re a believer in his I’m a believer in Benon 100%. And if we’re fading the narrative a little bit, I do think it’s a good Harrison English spot. Yeah, I had him last week. I saw him almost whole out for Eagle. Yeah. So, um, he he’s done well in PGAS and US Open. So, I’ll be down. You know what’s funny? The amount of love Sergio got at the Masters and I haven’t heard his name. Just doesn’t exist this week. Like, no. No one is even remotely talking about him um at all, which is just a bit Who do you think is the most popular long shot based on the chart? Keith Mitchell. No, Keith Mitchell will be most popular in DFS, but I don’t think people are going to like bet Keith Mitchell because no one thinks he can win. But Keith, yeah, no, let me let me pull it up. Uh, let me pull it up. I’m sorry. Um, Andy GT TC. Um, the most popular long shot is Patrick Reed. Um, Hatton English is decent. There’s not a lot of tips out yet, but yeah, I would say Reed and, you know, English and Cad Young are like the most popular. Um, but yeah, we’ll see. Sure. So, would Sergio be similar to Phil at Kaw, but similarly directionally? But, um, yeah, you know, if you’re listening, we’d love to have you at isn. We’re having a great time over there. Andy’s breakdowns are always great. Um, excited for BK ad this week um on Wednesday. Good ownership. Really good ownership. Great ownership. Got to have it. Um we we did meet um me and Kyle were standing on the the fairway and this we started talking to this guy next to us who was like sweating DFS lineups or whatever. He’s like, “Oh yeah, I listen to Andy every week like love Andy like play a lot of DFS.” Um who was a chill guy. Um so shout out. He was in the chat. I’m excited to get back to New York, man. I I I need it. I need it for my soul. Play some golf to be to be back in New York. Every day, every day I just um yeah, of course, every day I think about how bad I played at on in Lake Placid and how I’ve never It wasn’t any of our past. Um so the game the game feels good. Um right now working with Joe Mayo on Instagram with my chipping. Um you know, so the game feels good. I I hope you get out. You have any plans to play Thursday, Friday this week? No, not really. But I I will start gearing up. Like I’m starting to I’ve got some golf preps that I’m starting to make some some moves on. You know, it’s tough also because Natalie graduates veterinary school um in a month and so, you know, this summer I have to like kind of move in with her in Los Angeles slash also spend time in my beloved New York. So, I don’t know how I’m going to quite rectify that totally yet, but um I’m going to try. Yeah. Yeah. We’ll have some We’ll have some good times um this summer. I’m looking forward to it. I’ll pick if if it’s And I’ll I’ll preface this with if it’s okay with Andy, I’m taking next week off. I’ll be in London. Um can I ask like I never actually got the story of why you’re going to London. It’s just a pure like the company I work for. Like we do a lot of business with the insurance carriers in London, Lloyds of London, and they’re having like a coverholder academy. And since I’m the man, they picked me to go. So, I’m going to London for a week. It’s awesome. So, um, so I’m not I’m not doing Tib Charles Schwab. We’ll hold it down for you. No beef. Okay. I actually would have liked to hear your major recap, though. That’s a bummer. Yeah, we’ll we’ll see. We’ll see. I like I can do it. Like, my hours are Okay. Another Dave, you know what, Dave? I don’t appreciate the only time you ever come into TIB is when Andy’s on. I’ll say that right now. I don’t appreciate it. Like, I’ve never seen you once in here. I feel like he comments. No, he doesn’t. It’s fine. It’s It’s no beef. Like I’ve I’ve been in Dave’s corner. I entered 20 lineups in DFS for you. How many people in the Discord would have done that? Appreciate you listening tonight, but I’d like to see you around um a bit more, Dave. But no, two is 2K pretty good for you. What’s 2K? 2K live viewers. It’s not live. It’s like total like Yeah, it’s fine. Yeah, the numbers have been good. The numbers have been good. I’m happy um with it. We’ll see everyone for Heritage and not Heritage RBC um Canadian I think maybe possibly. Um Andy pleasure as always. Thanks buddy. This will not be the last time we talk but I think for the course and the everything I thought it was a good pod to be honest. I loved it. I had a blast. I was angry entering this podcast. I was in a bad mood and now I’m in like a great mood. Okay, sweet. Okay. Um hope everyone has a great night. Go Decky andor Scotty. Go next. Go next.