2025 Truist Championship DFS First Take

In this episode, Andy and Ryan discuss the upcoming PGA Tour event at Philly Cricket, covering key golfers, their form, and course fit predictions. The discussion highlights Rory McIlroy’s potential performance, analyzes the strengths of players like Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Russell Henley, and considers the betting odds and DFS strategies with a focus on golfers like Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Daniel Berger. There are mentions of course conditions, the impact of weather, and field composition. The episode wraps up with brief discussions on the performance of other notable players and a brief mention of the Myrtle Beach Classic.

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00:00 Introduction and Sponsor Message
01:04 Shorty’s Golf Partnership Announcement
01:47 Philly Cricket Week Preview
03:13 TPC Craig Ranch and Byron Nelson Recap
08:34 Quail Hollow Predictions and Analysis
14:16 Philly Cricket Course Breakdown
35:01 Proximity Buckets and Course Conditions
35:41 Betting Strategies and Player Picks
36:26 Analyzing Mid-Range Players
37:20 Keegan Bradley’s Course Fit
40:31 Sam Burns and Other Contenders
43:05 Justin Rose and JJ Spaun
47:24 Low-Cost Picks and Course Fits
55:20 Final Thoughts and Predictions

[Music] [Music] This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by Inside Sports Network. What’s up everybody? It’s uh your boy Boston Capitalist Steve on the Hold the Green podcast. All right, we are live. Tap in Birdie. All right, Carson Young is here. I bet love a 28. Let’s go. I bet I bet I bet him at 25. Low sevens. I think there’s some guys in here. We like Harris Ste at 7300. I love Brian Harmon at 3 and 12% this [Music] week. What’s up, guys? It’s producer Cam here. ISN is now partnered with Shorties Golf. Shortys Golf is designed to provide kids with the perfect introduction to the game of golf by offering high quality clubs and equipment specifically tailored to their need. They offer custom sizes for various age groups, ensuring that the kids have clubs that are tailored to their height and strength. They feature fun, vibrant colors and lightweight stand bags that are easily adjustable. Each set features real stainless steel clubs, high quality materials, and sturdy construction, making them long lasting while providing a real golf experience. So, go check them out. golfshorties.com. Use isn15 at checkout for $15 off your purchase. All right, we are live. Philly cricket week. I would say maybe the golf tournament on the PGA Tour I might be looking forward to the most this year potentially outside of maybe a couple of the major championships. How are we doing on this Monday afternoon? RB, how’s it going? Good. Yeah, always fun to tackle a new golf course. Um it’s it’s just as interesting to hear what other people say about the golf course than actually tackling it myself. Um and and we get the benefit of having an opposite field event uh as well. Um sorry, responding to one message. Um yeah, I mean I’m not going to spend any time on Myrtle Beach. I’ll just be transparent about that. Like if you have Myrtle Beach takes, we can 100% get to those. But for the extent of uh my contributions, I am going to spend all of my time on Philly Cricut because that’s the golf course I I spend a vast majority of time on. But I have seen a lot of Myrtle Beach discourse in the Discord already. I know you have a full Myrtle Beach card. Kyle certainly has a full Myrtle Beach card. So, we can cover some Myrtle Beach stuff at the end as well, but any takeaways from TPC Craig Ranch and the Byron Nelson before we turn the page? That might have been the most frustrating golf tournament and the most frustrating leaderboard I witnessed all [ __ ] season. I mean, I didn’t watch any of it. Um, I had my girlfriend in town this week. I was trying to unplug a little bit, balance out the amount of time that I spend on this company with the amount of time I spend in my romantic relationship because those have been a little out of whack in 2025. And so I tried to get everything a little bit closer to even this week. And I’m very glad that TPC Craig Ranch and the Byron Nelson was one I decided to unplug from. Yeah. Um not surprising. This of course has uh has shown us what it can and cannot do. Mostly cannot do. Um and the tournament was over on Thursday afternoon. You know, Scotty was what minus 125 uh as he was tapping in for a 61 on Thursday. And obviously it didn’t slow down from there. Um, from a betting in DFS week, I mean, obviously I didn’t bet Scotty, but um, did you bet without did you bet the without Scotty market? I didn’t. No, it just Yeah, it just didn’t matter at that point, but I think my entire player pool made the cut and finished between 40th and 60th. So, uh, everybody was there. Joerger, Nap, uh, Toasty, Celinda, you know, they were all there. Um, pretty frustrating week overall. Yeah, I like I men cashed. Um I played EVR. I gotta be honest, like EVR was probably the guy in my player pool that I maybe felt the worst about. Like I was literally I was literally just trying to find somebody in the 6K range this week. By the way, Johnny Vegas suddenly decides Johnny Vegas and Kirk Kittyama suddenly decide to just finish top five this week and make a million putts after we’re playing them all freaking season. Like he gets his superpower back in Texas, I guess. So, what the heck was that, man? Um, and I don’t know. I bet Spith. I felt like that was a good bet. I cord Sam Burns. I cord Sew Kim. Yep. I made again I I treaded water and DFS and Minash mainly because of EVR, but like all the guys that I expected to finish top 20 based on the course fits like um Jerger and Volamaki and Celinda and Nab. None of those freaking guys finished top 20. None of them. And it was all like it was such a weird leaderboard at the top. Like the top 10 I was like what is happening here? Yeah. It’s just uh it it ended up being just bombers and guys from Texas that was kind of that’s kind of where we settled here. But again when you got somebody shoot that’s what we said like that’s what we thought was going to happen. But it was all just like the ones that weren’t playing as well as the ones that were playing well. So I had 12 of my 13 from the player pool made the cut and my high finish I think was Kevin U at T29. Like everybody was in that range and again like I mean they played well. They shot 12 13 under whatever it was and uh lost by 20 shots. So same exact thing happened to me man. Like I played 50% Scotty. I should have played 100% Scotty. We I suppose we were due for one of those Scotty weeks. I didn’t expect it to happen in that fashion, but like literally every single guy that I play, Taylor Moore missing the cut hurt a lot. But outside of Taylor Moore missing the cut, every single guy, you’re right. It was like all between, you know, Selinda, Toasty, Volaki, Nap played a ton of nap. He finished Fox, Cam Davis, Venny on like they were all Cam Davis, Victor Perez, all of those guys literally made the cut and did absolutely nothing over the weekend. Yep. I guess just upwards and onwards, man. I mean, it’s just so disappointing because it’s a stupid golf course. Like, it’s such a stupid golf course, man. It’s such a stupid golf course and it’s properly getting destroyed. Yeah. I think this week where the narrative on this place is like, “What the hell are we doing?” Like, “Why are we giving Lanny Watkins 15 million to try and fix this golf course?” Yeah, it’s true. Yeah. And uh I don’t know how you fix it. I mean, you need firmer conditions. Uh like Scotty was able to stop every iron and stop every pitch shot within a foot of the hole. Um, but yeah, we just I think we have to move on from the bunny ranch. What do you What do you make of Scotty as it pertains to the PGA? Like if you’re sitting here now break thinking ahead to Quail Hollow and you know Rory, Scotty, Bryson, who in my opinion I would make as the three favorites. What does this Scotty performance do for you as it pertains to Quail Hollow? Um, not much because again, like he was always going to be a favorite, a co-f favorite. Like, yes, it’s great that he won and I think that will help him mentally a little bit, but again, it’s a just another perfect golf course for him. You have to drive it well. You’re going to be hitting uh pretty long irons at all these courses. Um, I think it’s perfect for him, but again, like you now have peak Rory, you have potentially peak Bryson playing great right now as well. Um, hard to imagine one of those three not winning or at least not being in the final group on Sunday there. Yeah, I was gonna I was gonna ask how would you rank the three in terms of how properly scared you are of them at Quail? I mean, I’m I’m I’m still going to put Rory one. I think uh the combination you’d put you’d put Rory ahead of Scotty right now. Did the market change? Because I was thinking after the Masters, Rory would be the favorite at Quail. And now I’m going to assume that Scotty is going to be the favorite at Quail. Yeah. Um Rory was four. No, I think I saw him at five or 550 LA. I still think Scotty will be the favorite by the time they get there. But again, the combination of, you know, Rory’s playground plus um has the ultimate monkey off his back going in there, like I think he should be the favorite, but um you know, probably co-favorites is what we’re looking at. Has that’s gonna say right right now Scotty and Rory are both five to one and Bryson’s 12 to one. Interesting. Yeah, probably a little short on Bryson. Like I would probably consider him if he was still at that 18 to has Scotty played quail. I feel like he skipped that event a lot. No, he he he never plays it. Okay. And so that’s interesting. Um I don’t know if that’s a scheduling thing, but I you know I always tend to look at that if a guy just has avoided a golf course historically. Maybe there’s something there that he doesn’t like. But it’s it’s going to be interesting because you have the ultimate course history with Rory against zero course history from Scotty. Scotty’s never played quail. Obviously, Rory is like the king of quail. That’s been his best golf course over the course of his career as a professional. I believe he has four wins there. And Bryson um Bryson at Quail. Bryson has a ninth and a fourth and a T33 to miss Cut at Quail. So, in 2018, Bryson finished fourth at Quail. In 2021, he finished ninth at Quail. So, actually, interestingly enough, you would think that he dominated off the tea at Quail, and he did. He drove the ball well, but in both of his top 10 finishes at Quail, he gained over five strokes putting, which is interesting. Interesting. I mean, he’s an elite putter and you get greens like that, probably perfect for him. Um, yeah. I mean, I think steam is going to be with Rory still heading to Quill Hollow. That’s so in my opinion, it actually seems like because of the way that Rory and Scotty are coming in and coupled with the way that Bryson’s playing on Liv right now, and I think what many people would just acknowledge is obviously a super intriguing course in terms of how powerheavy um Quail Hollow typically tends to be in terms of like the driver heavy nature approach to a golf course that’s super long. I will say it actually seems like you’re going to get like a 24 to one on Colin Morawa for once and maybe like depending on what he does at Philly cricket this week like some of those guys like Klay they’re going to start drift Kentlay Havlin like all of those guys are looking at around maybe 3540 to1 I mean do you feel do you feel like it’s going to be one of the proverbial big three to you or would you try and take advantage of catching a number on, you know, that next tier of guys that never [ __ ] win. Never [ __ ] win. You know what? I shouldn’t say that because Justin Thomas just I was going to say I have a future on uh Justin Thomas. Uh I believe it’s 28 to1. So um you’ll get you’ll get CLV there. Like I think JT will probably settle around 2022. Yeah, I don’t have a lot of room to add anybody at the top. I would consider a Bryson probably, but I would need him to drift closer to probably that that that 18 to1 number because Yeah, I mean, look, I think there are guys in there like, I don’t know, Matsuyama, Lowry, Victor Havlin. Like, there’s guys that I could see playing really well there. Um, I just like you just don’t get those numbers anymore. It’s it’s just unfortunate. But um I would take the big three against the field for Quail Hollow. Yes. Okay. Well, a lot of Quail Hollow discourse and discussions uh over at Inside Sports Network in the next couple of days, but let’s turn all of our attention to Philly Cricket because there’s a lot to talk about there. My question for you, I broke this golf course down um at an incredibly in-depth level. I I posted my article on the website this morning. So, I’ve got about 5,000 words on Philly cricket. Our Discord is 100% the place to be for the most in-depth information on that golf course. Not only do we have a super in-depth article, but we also have multiple folks in the area that will be at this golf course for the practice rounds. A ton of great info from members. I’ve talked to a ton of members this week, but I want to hear from you. What are your thoughts on this golf course? What are other people saying? Because I have my breakdown of the golf course and I haven’t consumed anything yet. So, I have no idea what the market thinks of this golf course and I’m going to find out a lot about that when I run ownership tomorrow. Yeah. But I basically know what I think. But how does that interact with what you think everyone else thinks? Yeah. So, the first thing I saw just was people looking at the scorecard, right? Par 70, pretty short. I mean, wedge play, iron play, that sort of thing. Um, I assume the rough is going to be up. It’s obviously firm, fast ben grass greens. And like I think these courses up here, whether you’re Midwest, whether you’re Northeast, they’re always going to play a little bit harder, right? And so like you think about like the scrambling, there’s a ton of bunkers here. I assume you’re going to have a lot of rough around the greens and it’s going to be tough to scramble and tough to get up and down. So, you know, I guess that means way around the green less than normal, I would say. Um, but I still think distance will matter here even though the scorecard doesn’t necessarily reflect that. There’s only a couple of par fives. Um, yeah, I looked pretty extensively and again, we haven’t had a ton of course history, but stuff from Pennsylvania, you know, it could be Marion, it could be Ron, Mink, and even places like Cog Hill and Olympia Hills, like it’s the Keegan Bradley types. It’s the Justin Rose types. Like, I I think that is I think that’s what we’re looking for this week. Um, and really interesting wrinkle not having Scotty in the field, I would say. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I gotta be honest. I’m not really as much on the distance train this week. If that’s a if that’s a overwhelming narrative that is beginning to formulate, then in my opinion there might be some value personally for me in fading that because I think guys like Seb Straa and Russell Henley are like incredible fits at at this golf course based on their ability inside 150 yards and the way that and the way that they’re putting right now. Um, but we’ll see what ownership comes in. I will do my first run of ownership tomorrow. We can talk it through today on the show and make some guesses. I’m curious to hear your thoughts, particularly at the top of the slate, but let’s start there. I mean, to Rory or or not to Rory at $12,000. Um, I think in this field with no Scotty, um, with how he’s playing right now with a no cut event, I think it’s yes to Rory. Um, Scotty was what, 45ish% last week. Um, I don’t think Rory gets quite that high, but I do think Scotty was Scotty was 48% last week, and he was still I over I I finished up with him. My final ownership run was 43% and I went higher than all the other projections I was seeing and he still ended up at 48%. Yeah, I’m going to say Rory doesn’t get to 48, but I’m going to say Rory is going to push 40 to 42. Um, so and I think that’s sort of right at the line of demarcation where I can probably talk myself in DFS at least into not playing Rory just because he doesn’t have the floor that Scotty had, right? Scotty legitimately had a top five floor last week. Like Rory could finish 18th here or 17th here. So, um, I’m going to say 40% and I’m going to say I will probably not be using Rory this week. The pushpull of Rory this week is pretty simple to me and I talked about this a little bit on the Sunday pod. I actually don’t think that this is a golf course that fully accentuates like what Rory is best at. Like just straight up at a macro elementary level. Yeah. Rory’s biggest advantage is on long golf courses. like because Rory is such a good long iron player and because he has so much power off the tea and I broke this down extensively in the Sunday pot about like the delta and the advantage that players like Rory Mroy have on long golf courses is so much greater because the difference between like Rory at 175 yards is so much greater than like a Russell Henley or a Brian Harmon at 225 yards. Then the difference between Rory Moy at 75 yards in and a Brian Harmon or a Colin Morawa or a Russell Henley at 125 yards in. Like if Rory just mashes driver on every single hole at this golf course, he’s going to have like a lot of really awkward distances coming in. like he’s going to have like a lot of very difficult 75 yard touch shots and he could absolutely convert those. Like he he could be awesome at those shots, but there’s no guarantee that he’s going to be more awesome at those shots than someone like Russell Henley or Morawa are going to be at 125 yards. Do you get what I’m saying? Yeah. like you well and I think like we talked about with Scotty last week, he separates himself more with those mid to long irons, right? He’s not correct he’s not a bad wedge player by any stretch, but everybody else is a good wedge player as well. So yeah, obviously the counterargument with Rory right now is like the two golf courses that he won at this year were Sawrass and Pebble Beach. Like those were both golf courses that in my opinion are super hard to separate with distance off the tea. Like I actually think Pebble Beach, not I think statistically straight up, Pebble Beach is one of the least like driver separation courses on the entire PGA Tour. Like that is a touch wedge golf course, a second shot golf course that’s all about like proximity from 70 75 to 150 yards and putting from 5 to 15 feet. And yeah, in fairness, Philly Cricut is like kind of a northeastern bent grass firm and fast version of that. Mhm. Particular if he’s hovering around 40%. Like I think it’s a fade for me, man. I I I would say on course fit alone, if you combine his salary and the ownership, um I don’t know. I I’m not there that it’s 100% he’s going to get to 40%. Because I do think people will follow what I’m saying in terms of it not being the most typical Rory Mroy golf course. Um but for me, I’m probably looking a little bit past him. So once you get past Rory, who would be your favorite in the nines and tens? So, I went back and forth on on this a bit because I do think, look, I bet Colin Morawa as much as anybody. I think this could be an ideal course for him. You have the new Caddy narrative that seems to be working. But, Ryan, it’s an amazing course for Morocawa. Yeah, I just um I just uh I I’m just not feeling it there for some reason. So, I actually went um I guess what I think will be a Zag, but I bet Xander at 16 to1. It’s a good bet. I’m circling around it. I haven’t crossed him off yet. He’s on my short list. The approach game has been great. Again, not he’s not a wedge specialist, per se, but he’s plenty good with the wedges. And I just think like I just think the pendulum swung that way a little bit too far on him. And uh he’s playing better than the numbers look. Played well at the Masters. Uh he obviously led the field in approach at Valpar. He was fine at Heritage. Like I just feel like he’s close. So, um, I think in those non- Rory lineups, I will definitely be doing Xander with probably another 9K at least. Guy, I think for me, the the two players that I think I might actually like the most above 9K are Canon Henley at 95 at 95 and 94. But but like dude at this point it’s like I have properly lost enough money on like every single one of the guys it’s it’s it’s between Kantlay Henley Fleetwood Spith now even Havlin JT Xander Moralo like none of those guys [ __ ] win. So I’m going to have to choose to go back to the well with one of them. And I’ve like properly been hurt this year on every single one of them at near equal amounts. And actually, yeah, like all of these guys for the most part have done well for me in DFS. None of them just freaking win. And I think I think with Kantlay and Henley and maybe to be honest with you, JT and Morawa also deserves to be in this conversation. But I think with Kantlay and Henley, I look at that history at golf courses like TPC River Highlands obviously in the Northeast. The way that Kentlay’s hitting his irons right now. What’s so weird about Kantlay right now is like he’s been such a phenomenally awesome fast green bent grass putter in the past, but he’s just not doing it this season. like he’s just not there was a time when Kantlay was the best putter of the elite players. Like we’re talking about a guy whose ceiling was, you know, you remember that um playoff that he was in with Bryson where he gained like 15. Yeah. Cage Valley where he gained 15 strokes putting. I think I’m still going to trust that, you know, that win at what was the other BMW that he won? Wilmington Country Club Cup. Wilmington Country Club Cup is a lot like Delaware. Yeah. Yeah, I think it’s longer, I would imagine. But, um, definitely a little bit longer, but like the exact same aronomy, the exact same firm and fast spent grains. That was even a golden age design as well. Um, and I think if you’re telling me like the best combination of short iron play and putting right now in the 9K range, at least statistically, it just it is Russell Henley. Like I’m not saying I trust it or want it to be the case, but like if we are just purely looking at the numbers based on the things I am looking for for a course bet, Russell Henley is the best at those things. And to be honest with you, RB Tommy Fleetwood’s not far behind. I bet Tommy Fleetwood. So we’ll get there. I don’t I don’t think Justin Thomas is far behind. Like I know he’s not at all. Yeah. Like I know people don’t like to play guys off the win, but like you talk about him historically, right? He is a prolific winner. He obviously went through a drought. He has excelled on less than driver courses and he is probably the best wedge player from top to bottom in the world. You talk about those half wedges from 80 70 yards. Um and I think again monkey off the back. Um yeah, I have no issue going back to JT this week at all. Do you think JT can win again this soon? Like do you think Yeah, because Scotty’s not in the field. I think any of these guys can win this week. Yeah, I I I agree with you. I like for me when I ran my numbers, it actually went for me Rory one, JT 2, actually Lowry 3, who we’ll talk about, who’s my favorite player in the AK range, Kantlay, Henley, Fleetwood, Morocawa. So, those are my those are my top seven. And you talk about pricing and you talk about the no cut event. You can play a Fleetwood Hemley JT team, no problem. Oh, yeah. And have Z only really need one sixk guy. And so, like if you’re fading Rory and I think this is a good week to do it, you can really make some high upside lineups with those wedge players that you like. 100%. I think Kantlay and Henley are locks for me. And then the big decision for me will be if I’m going to anchor that around JT, Morocawa, or Xander. Yeah. Um, and I will say, how would you how would you rank those three RB between JT, Morawa, Xander? I mean, probably in that order, even though I bet Xander. Um, but yeah, probably in that order just sort of based on uh current form and still a little unknown with Xander on on him coming back from injury. Um, yeah. It’s interesting though, like when you look specifically at those wedge numbers, like you can look under 100, but really like the 100 150. I mean, it’s JT up there. Uh, and I’ll tell you who’s not far behind and higher than Morawa this year on that 100 to 150 range. Uh, is showing signs of life. Victor Havland. Absolutely. Yeah. Also bet him this week 28 to1 last night. Um, yeah, Kyle bet him too. really nice to see the approach play coming back. He’s putting great. Um the off the tea game has been weirdly bad. Um just not accurate off the tea for some reason. I don’t know the cause of that, but again like I don’t necessarily think like RBC Heritage and Valpar and uh and and and the Florida courses are places I would expect him to excel off the tea necessarily. So I’m like willing to overlook that. I just felt 28 to one on a guy who is on the way up uh was a good price for Hofflin. Havlin’s 100% on my short list as a bet as well for some reason in my head. I know he’s in the 9K range, but I I kind of had him in bottom of the 9K range. Yeah. Yeah. I kind of had him in that slightly next tier where I was looking at Havlin along with players like Daniel Burgerer and and Straa and Shane Lowry. But I think right now it’s going to be a pretty balanced approach for me this week in DraftKings where I’m probably going to fade Rory and I am going to start like the my highest price guy on the slate is either going to be one of JT Morawa Xander. I’m gonna I’m gonna play Klay and Henley and then like this lower 9K range into the middle eights I think is really really strong. The one guy that I think we should probably mention in my head just based on the way that he’s hitting his irons and wedges right now. Lvig feels like the weakest course. Mhm. But I’m still like properly afraid of him. Like one of the things I’ve noticed that’s interesting with Lve and I talked about this quite a bit in the Sunday pot too. He’s like really comfortable on difficult greens. Like he putts really well at the Masters. He’s putted really well at Mirfield Village. He’s putted really well at Pinehurst. Like I don’t know if it’s because the Texas Tech golf course that he played in college was a tom do golf course and with like really difficult subtle undulations. But I got to say like I do trust Levig a lot on these types of greens to go out there and gain four, five, six strokes putting. I just don’t really know what’s going on with the irons right now for him. And I I don’t really think it’s a golf course that his driver is going to win the tournament for him. I agree. Yes. I think it can potentially take driver out of his hands. Uh like you said, the iron play is definitely off. And I think that’s going to work against him, you know, a couple different ways. One, he’s not going to get as many close birdie looks. And two, he’s going to rely on his short game. And I don’t know if this is the type of course um where I love his short game. Uh, I don’t know about you, it’s kind of like the anti-hawlin, right? Yeah. And like I look back because he played well at the BMW last year at Castle Pines, but it was really just one round. He shot a 63. It was pretty much even par for the other three rounds. So, um, I’m going to uh, yeah, I’m going to say no love this week. Um, but again, yeah, it wouldn’t shock me to see him up there. Okay, rank these next five guys for me because they are all in theory very good course fits for me. Hideki, Connors, Straka, Burger, Lowry. Yeah, incredibly tough. Um, I may play three out of those five guys, if not four. I’ll start with the guy that I bet. I bet Seraka. Um, I was looking back. I mentioned I love it, dude. I love it. I mentioned going through the approach play, specifically the iron play. Um, and if you filter just in this calendar year from 100 to 151, sorry, 100 to 150 yards, Straka uh leads the tour in strokes gained from that proximity by a massive margin um over number two Justin Rose who I also bet. So, I’m definitely leaning that way this week. So, I guess Straka number one. Um, I’m just a huge believer in what Cory Connor is doing. So, I guess he would be number two. Um, probably Lowry 3, Matsyama four, and Burger five. Even though Burgerer is playing incredibly well. What’s the hate with Daniel Berger? That was the first bet I made this morning. I I think it’s he’s playing incredibly well. Um, I was honestly close to betting him. I just think all these guys are very good players and I tend to just gravitate towards Burger when they’re playing Bermuda. And I think uh probably it’s probably a blind spot, but I think these guys are all great and is going to lead me to more balance builds than usual. Yeah, it’s fair. My only counterargument would be Burger kind of sneakily has played quite well in the Northeast. Like he played well at Rididgewood in 2018. He played okay at Wingedfoot. Like he wasn’t really in great form heading into Wingfoot. That would be my uh retort is what years were these in? You know, like 2018, 2021, but he’s playing incredibly well. Obviously wants to make this RDER Cup team. So, um yeah, he’s got a lot to play for. I think I would rake them Burger one, Straa 2. Actually, no. I love Lowry this week. Burger one, Lowry 2, Straa three, Hideki four, Connor’s five. just by default. Um I love Lowry this week. Lowry is another guy who’s an awesome wedge player. Like he is just like and in terms of golf courses with really difficult golden age architecture. Like Lowry’s played awesome before at a golf course like Oakmont. This golf course is essentially like Oakmont style greens, but if the proximity buckets were TPC River Highlights pretty much. Well, like no, literally it’s like that. That’s exactly what I said in the written preview, too. I was like, and I was talking about this in the Discord. It’s like it’s TPC River Highlands proximity buckets with winged foot oak m greens. It’s like playing a par three course in like US Open conditions. Right. Right. It’s kind That’s kind of where we’re going. Yeah. And I have no idea what to make of that. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, I think I do like I think I’m set. I think the players that we’re talking about are the right guys for that. Um I will tell you right now I’m 100% going to bet one of Lowry or Straka if not both. Like I think I think where I’m leaning in my betting card is choosing one of Kantlay, Xander, Morocawa. Ger I already bet. And then choosing between um Lowry and Straka. And I probably actually have room to bet Burger, Lowry, Straka, and Kantlay maybe. I’m not sure. I haven’t done that math yet. But once we get farther down past um that group at the top of the eights that we really like, who do you like from like Sunj all the way down to 7.5? It seems like Keegan, Northeast Keegan is going to be Chalk. Yeah, I think he Yeah, I think he’s the best play here for sure. Um I think the only other one I would play here is probably Jason Day and I I don’t think I’m going to. So, um I would play Keegan. He is far and away the best play here. Um I could see some Minwi stuff. Um I like Minow. He has the distance. He has the short game. Min Woo is an awesome putter. Yeah, he’s just he’s just really sort of dropped off since the win. I guess unsurprisingly. Um and I don’t know if like a tough Northeast course is like I think the Houston Open was perfect for him. Like if he designed a golf course for Midwee, it would be that. So um I think there’s some regression there. But yeah, Keegan is really the only viable play for me here. But what if Keegan’s What’s your threshold on Keegan? Like if Keegan’s 22% at 8,100, I don’t know if I can endorse that because I like I I like Keegan’s course fit here. Like, let’s just take geography out of the equation. Keegan is a very very good short iron player and a very very good fast bent grass putter. What I am struggling with is I think that he is getting a massive artificial northeastern bump and I think I just think that’s a little bit lazy. Like I I I think that stuff matters to a certain extent, but I will tell you right now, I have never had and will never have a geographic location be more than 5% in my model ever. Yeah. Um it it makes no it makes it makes no sense, RB, because I I’ll tell you right now, like San Francisco Golf Club is a carbon copy of Philly Cricket, okay? Like it is literally San Francisco Golf Club is a tilling golf course with the exact same aronomy that was designed by the same guy in the same style of architecture and I don’t know let’s say Shinikok Hills um is nothing I mean there’s some similarities but Shinikok Hills with kind of this more lengthy wide open fescue terrain is nothing like Philly cricket and So because Shinnikok’s in the Northeast and San Francisco Golf Club’s in the West Coast, like it’s just it’s stupid. So I I just I think Keegan is getting too high of an artificial bump in DraftKings because of that possibly. I think he’s going to be just as popular of a bet. I honestly don’t mind small field, no cut. I don’t mind playing at 20% Keegan because again, I’m just I’m not gonna have Rory. I’m not gonna have Aaron Ry who I assume is going to be chalk there as well. So, like I think as long as you’re careful with your build and you don’t play him with those other two names, I think you’re fine. So, um I’ll admit I’ll be a chalk donkey. I will be playing some Keegan this week. Yeah, I would I think I would almost rather like bet the 45 to one on Keegan and go in a different direction in DraftKings. I will tell you this once we get a little bit lower. I mean, I’ve been playing a lot of Seiw Kim and he’s been quite good for me. Like he was a core play for me at both the Heritage and the Byron Nelson. Yeah. And he delivered like he was good both of those. He’s playing good golf. The guys that I like the most based on course vets in this range I have to say are probably and now I’m basically going like 7500 to 8400 or whatever. Brian Harmon, uh, Sew Kim, Denny McCarthy, and then I don’t know what to do with Sam Burns because Sam Burns was another core play for me last week. And he looked really good. He’s starting to play really good. And if I I think about he’s he’s starting to putt really good. I don’t know. I don’t know if he’s playing well, but he’s putting well. He’s starting to drive the ball well. I let me let me look at let me look at the ball. He’s lost approach in his last seven eight events. I think it’s more than that. Yeah, he got one in there. And so last week last week, all right, at least basically what he’s doing right now is the approach has gone from like terrible to field average. But field average in the Byron Nelson field um might be a little bit different than field average in this field. What he is starting to do a little bit more consistently is drive the ball. So he’s starting to gain more consistently off the tee and he has once again become basically the best putter on the PGA Tour outside of Denny McCarthy. And I do think that you can win this golf tournament with your putter. I do believe that. Um, yeah. And so Sam Burns and Denny McCarthy, those guys can win the tournament in my opinion. Yeah, I know Burns Bermuda guy, but but I just feel like Burns is like morphing into a worse version of Windham Clark and like you can just play Windham Clark at the same price. um who’s also not playing great. But again, I just think, you know, I trust Windam Clark a little bit more than Sam Burns at this point. Um yeah, if anything is interesting, my only retort would be I think Burns is putting way better than Wendy right now, but I agree. It’s it’s a similar It’s a similar profile. like both Wend Clark and Sam Burns, I would throw um their distance out the window, right? Like what’s interesting about those guys is they both have above average distance, but I actually think that they might be better plays on short courses because they do not know how to hit a long iron to save their lives right now, but they actually are pretty good wedge players. Yep, I could see that. Um, which takes me to my next play down there. I I also think it’s a good spot and again buying into some narrative here. Uh, I bet Justin Rose at 65 to one. Shout out Marian. Marian. He’s won at Aronomic. Um, did he win at Aron, too? Yeah, BMW there a long time ago. I mean, you know, I thought I thought that was I thought Aronomic was uh JT and Keegan. I believe there was one before that. There you go. There you go. Yes. But he loves this kind of stuff. Obviously, like not consistent, but the dude just almost won the Masters. He played well at Bayale. He played well at Pebble Beach. Like I think it’s the perfect golf course for him. And again, uh he’s got a lot to play for um as he’s trying to make this Ryder Cup team. And I assume he’s going to be on it. So I like this course fit for him. Um an anti- uh geography narrative. I kind of like this course for your guy JJ Spawn. I feel like he he hit a law the last two weeks at the Masters and the RBC. He was playing incredible all year. Uh almost won the players. Obviously, irons have been lights out. He hits every fairway, you know, just very very consistent. Putts pretty well. So, Spawn’s going to be a very uh lowowned option there. Um and Aaron Ry like I I think we have to talk about it. I assume he’s going to be the highest owned in this range or close to it. You think so? Has there been Aaron Ry buzz that I may have missed this morning? A little bit. Look, anytime you’re talking about a wedge fest, people are just going to go to Aaron Ry. Um, yeah. And data golf likes them a bit, you know, he’s not their number one value. That’s obviously Rory, but uh yeah, but he’s up there as well. So, their stuff their stuff is their stuff is so ridiculous sometimes. It’s like it’s like Nick Dunlap infinity to one. We were talking about that this morning. That was Yeah, that was good. But yeah, Ry will be popular. But yeah, for me, Rose, Spawn, um, and then, uh, yeah, I don’t, you know, I like Aaron Ry. I just, I just think he’ll be popular. Um, what do they have? Yeah. Um, yeah, they have Rory. And then, well, they have Aaron Ry. They have Aaron Riot. They have, and I know that this will affect some ownership. You’re right. They have Aaron Ry 65 to1 as the greatest value on the board. hoping for a bounceback week uh from Taylor Moore cleaning them out as Taylor Moore was Sandeu Green. I mean that was that was a bit of an easy I mean Taylor Moore I agreed with that. I he played well this year. He’s he’s been since Yeah. I mean not since Phoenix. Phoenix. Yeah. He played well last five or six events have been pretty bad. Yeah. Yeah. But he had that course fit that you were looking for in theory. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I listen I lost money on Taylor Moore last week too. I I I maybe course fit doesn’t matter when it’s a stupid golf course. I think you got to bake that in. It’s a good take. It’s a good take. I can’t disagree with you. I thought I played all of the best course and didn’t really do anything for me. They all finished 40th. Um okay. Wait, before we finish up down below, they’re all right next to each other. It’s really interesting to me. Burns, Wendam Clark, Novak, Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson, Brian Harmon. Those six guys who you have to pick two of them for the RDER cut. I’d still probably go Burns, Burns, and Wendy. Yeah, I I’d probably just I’d probably go Ryan Windom, I think. Ry from England. I’m talking US. Oh, sorry. you cut out for a second. Um, yeah, Ben. Yeah, I agree with you. Burns and Windom. I’m not there on the Novak, Denny McCarthy, RDER Cup stuff. Yeah. No, no. They have Well, I mean, for Danny, he’s got to win anything, but for Novak, he’s got to win a real event. Um, you know, he’s been playing great, but uh, you got a long way to go to make a Ryder Cup team. Like, I wouldn’t take him over Daniel Burgerer. Uh, I assume he’s way ahead of Burger in points at this point, but I wouldn’t take him over Burger. I am going to Me too, Connor. Taylor Moore [ __ ] Taylor Moore hit me hard last week. Um, I am going to take a small Viclap on Tony Fen. Now, that guy is a freaking mess right now. And I I said this two months ago and I can tell you right now, not public information. I I can’t say it as public information. He is in the middle of a [ __ ] storm. Yeah. [ __ ] storm legally. Um on the other hand, he’s awesome in the Northeast and like this feels like a Tony Fenel golf course. Like played well at Wingfoot and Ridgewood and so many of those northeastern bankrass courses. Like it so much to me feels like the type of golf course that Tony Fen now would play well on. I just think there’s too much noise going on in his life right now. Yeah. Yeah. Dave, you’re right. Some are saying that I did end Tony Phen’s career with the deer rash pod. It legitimately did make a difference. Um, it is definitely the mo in terms of like pure money that was exchanged after anything I’ve done in my entire life. It definitely was the biggest impact of anything I’ve done in my career, which is quite a low bar, I might add. Um, so yeah. Okay, so bottom of the sevens and sixes, finish us off here. So, um, you talk about possible course fit fast bend grass greens, you know, major championship type feel. Like I feel like a will allures at 6% owned might be something that I do this week. Um, but my favorite, yeah, my favorite two down here, um, probably Taylor Pendrith and then Oshay. Um, I’m going to say this knowing that Pendrith could be eight over through nine holes on Thursday, but I just think this is a great court for him. He’s a, you know, a great putter, obviously great off the tea, underrated wedge and iron player. Um, and he’s not, you know, he’s not playing great right now, but I don’t think he’s playing bad. like he missed the cut on the number last week shooting, you know, I think kind of opening round bogey 367. So like he’s not far off, but yeah, Pendrth A and then a little Zurus in that low seven range for me. Totally agree with you. I was looking at Zalurus. Um Oshay is a sneaky like he’s been hitting his irons pretty well this season for the most part. Great putter. Underrated great putter, you know. Uhhuh. Dave, I’m I’m semi with you on Eric Cole. I don’t know if I like him to the extent that you do, but I understand why you like him. The guy that I would add in there as well is Lucas Glover. I’m saying this semiest. Um, Lucas Glover won a US Open on a northeastern tailing house golf course. I will say I don’t think Beth Paige is a good cop. No, but yeah, look, I think there’s a theme here. We’re talking about uh major uh yeah, major championship winners, major champion conditions. Um and there’s a couple other ones down here. I’ll be honest. Uh and you have to look carefully. There are some signs uh that Matt Fitzpatrick is not in hell right now. I was going to say, what are those signs? Cuz in theory, yeah, like Matt Fitzpatrick loves firm, fast bankrass greens. He literally won at Brookline. Yeah. So, I mean, he gained uh at the RBC Heritage, he gained off the tea approach and around the green. He just he put it awfully. Uh at the Masters made the cut to 40th, he gained off the tea, he gained around the green. He played fine last week at the Zurich, but his brother stunk. Uh and again, like Matt Fitzpatrick is not going to win, but it’s like he was ninth this week. Like you mentioned the comp to Brooklyn line and that sort of course. I think that’s a you know, he’s going to be 2% owned. And the other one, um, you won’t be surprised to hear this, if he’s healthy, uh, is Gary Woodland. I think again, he he obviously won a US Open at a short golf course, also played well at Brooklyn, has really played great this year. He almost won in Houston. He’s just he’s he’s got an injury. So, um, you know, if he tease it up, I’m going to count that as him being healthy. And at 6,300 or wherever he is, like, you know, if you have to go that low, you could do worse than Gary Woodley. Why did he withdraw from Byron though? I want to say it was a back or a neck thing. Um I don’t trust his I don’t trust his putter for [ __ ] man. I just don’t I just don’t either. But I don’t trust the putter for [ __ ] man. I mean, you there’s not You’ve done enough tracking of the guy. He’s one of those guys that like have I I really have some PTSD with. Yeah. Oh, and special shout out here. Alex Norin is back. We haven’t talked about him. He’s been out for uh almost a year. Um I want to say it was a leg injury of sorts. Um I don’t even know how he’s in this field, but he is. This is his first event since October um of last year. So don’t expect him to play well, but always good to have Alex Norton back in. Yeah, I’m gonna need to see it from Sir Alex. Yeah, I’m gonna need to see it. But yeah, I mean there’s just not a lot down here in terms of guys you would think would play well here. Like what about Hogi? Uh question from St. Steven 68. Hogi ownership over under 10%. I’m going to say I’m going to say under. Yeah, I’m I don’t think any of these guys like the models will like Jacob Bridgemond just because he’s now at a price where we haven’t seen him in a while. So I think that would be popular. But um I mean Cameron Young horrible golf course. He’s at a price where you can play him now. He’s at 6200. Cam Davis at 6K. Like in a no cut event, that’s where I would play these guys. I will say this about Cameron Young, Sleepy Hollow. Ah, Northeast comp. Let’s do it. Well, Sleepy I mean, forget Northeast Comp, Architecture Comp. like Sleepy Hollow. From a green standpoint, there are a lot of similarities on the type of golf course architecturally that Sleepy Hollow is to Philly Cricket. You just can’t hit a green, which seems like a problem uh in golf. So, who do you think who do you think’s uh last question, who do you think’s And then, um, if anyone has any, uh, final questions that you want to throw out there before we get out of here, um, send them now because my next pod on Philly Cricut will be uh, the Wednesday night premium show, but join the Discord because I’ll be answering questions in there over the next 48 hours big time. and we got a ton of great more info coming in. A bunch of people that are going to be at practice rounds for us and a bunch of member information in there as well. Um, so that’s the place for more questions on Philly Cricket if you have them. Who who do you um who do you think’s highest owned in the 6K range? Oh boy. Um, I’d just say Bridgemond because I I think the models will like him the best. Um, but I would not be shocked if it was uh if it was Ryan Gerard just because people have played him a lot. So, the hell happened to him last week, too? I mean, again, he just he can’t he can’t hit irons. He his short game has been great. His off the tea game has been great, but he but the irons are gone. So, um yeah, I think Bridgemond, but I think Ryan Gerard will be on as well. Okay, that’s it for me, buddy. Um, who’s your winner? Victor Hofflin. I think it’s time uh he’s going to he obviously won at Valpar. Even though he didn’t play well, I think he’s going to play well uh and put on a big performance and he’ll throw his name in the uh running for Quail Hollow. So, oh, Vegas winning score 19.5. Brian just posted under. I mean, that feels a little You think it’s going to be 20 under? No, no, no. I mean higher score, lower. I don’t think it’s a crazy number. I don’t like I I I will say I I think that you know whether the golf tournament is I think people get too caught up sometimes in like the winning score versus the scoring average, right? So, if the golf tournament is won at 22 under versus 17 under, that should not necessarily change your breakdown of the golf course or the player that you’re looking for, right? Like, we see it all the time where somebody could go shoot 22 under on a golf course, but the scoring average is that of a tournament that gets one at 15 under par. So, I definitely think somebody It’s a par 70 as well, right? So, like, yeah, like you’re talking about shooting 465s um at a new golf course that I think the members are going to want to play hard, right? I would imagine they’re highly the members I will say I’ve been talking about this in the Discord, the members are highly incentivized for it to play hard. I will say there are going to be some very angry people if it’s 20 under. Doesn’t mean that I assume they want to get a US Open here, right? Is that is that the end goal? Or PGA as well. 100% they’re highly incentivized to have this golf course play hard and I that is like I’m a member at two clubs that host major championships and professional golf tournaments and it it is all about making sure the golf course plays hard because that’s all they all the members want to do is say the golf course that I play every single day and the hole that I made birdie on I watched Scotty Shuffler make a seven on um and Philly cricket in particular um like ingrained in Philadelphia golf culture. I’m not going to do a whole thing on this because I already talked about in the pod, but it’s Philadelphia golf culture particularly this club very much prides itself on the difficulty of its greens in particular. This is one of the best memberships in America in terms of how good at golf they are. This membership has 30 guys that are scratch golfers or better. Um, it’s it’s a very proud good membership with people there that are influential at the USGA, the PGA. Um, they will there are some people that’ be very angry if it’s 20 under. And that would probably that would probably lead me to say like I’d probably lean more towards a slight under there, but we’re getting some rain. Yeah. And and and if it rains, there’s not much you can do. That’s that’s the other I assume they can tuck flags in some really nasty spots, though, as you can on on most of these Northeast courses. So that’s the other thing, too. That’s the other thing, too. Exactly. Like what they can just do also is like if the scores are high are lower than they want them to be on Thursday and Friday, they could literally just put pins in corners of the greens and guys are just going to make par on all of the birdie holes because they’re inaccessible. Yeah, they just do that at this golf course. like you could you could just put make the pins in places that they’re just going to two putt for par. Um so anyway, um if you want more on Philly cricket um as well as the best ownership predictions, our Discord this week is the place to be. This is the best time to sign up for a month. Um, I would tell you that right now there may not be a better time in the entire season to sign up for a month because you are getting Philly cricket, PGA Championship, and US Open in that month. So, the value that you’re getting for the next month is probably the most jam-packed month that we have for the rest of the year. Um, and you know what? If you don’t want to get that extra level of insight, um, and you want to have us keep doing free content, um, share on YouTube, subscribe on YouTube, give us a like and a thumbs up. That stuff means a lot to us as well and encourages us to keep providing a bunch of free content as well. So, thanks RB. Um, I’ll see you back. We have a freaking major next week. I can’t have a major back next week. Yeah, we didn’t talk about Myrtle Beach. Your winner is Kevin U. Just going to throw that out there. Give me give give me give me uh 90 seconds on Myrtle Beach. Yeah, I mean just looking at last year, you know, anywhere Chris Gutter up wins by six. Uh that sort of tells you what you’re looking for. So, uh bombs away there. There are a ton of uh really good options. You know, all these guys we’ve been betting non-stop if it’s Balamaki or if it’s Toasty or Riley. Uh, but I love uh you and uh Cameron Champ showing signs of life. I got him 80 to1 last night. So, he’s interesting. I will I texted you guys about an hour ago. Um, I’m going to put that note in the Discord because our guy uh Austin Duncan just Monday queued. Should be in the field at 6K min for anybody who is dumb enough to play DraftKings for uh the Myrtle Beach Classic. But we have a Monday Q who I think has a lot of upside. So, sweet. Awesome. I if you are if you’re watching this video and you’re a Myrtle Sicko, join the Discord because like the level of conversations in the Discord that are happening about Myrtle is heavily concerning. Like we are we are the place for if you want great Myrtle info, the amount of conversations on Myrtle is like comparable to the amount of people talking about Philly Cricut. We are a uh we are an odd bunch um but a family um and and the best family. Um so insideportsnetwork.com thank you RB and we’ll see you back here next week. All right, let’s do it.