2025 Truist Championship Friday Recap + Weekend Bets | The Early Wedge

Rick Gehman and Sia Nejad discuss the first two rounds of the 2025 Truist Championship and look ahead to the weekend.

0:00 Intro + Philly Cricket Club & the Thursday/Friday conditions
4:42 On the Podium: Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka
13:45 The Big Boys Lurking…Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and more

#SportsBetting #Gambling #Betting #PGATour #GolfPicks #TruistChampionship #GolfBetting #RickRunGood

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[Music] Welcome in. It’s the early wedge. I’m Rick Gamman. That right there, it’s CIA Nad and we are halfway home in Philadelphia. Sea, it is good to see you, brother. What’s up, man? It’s good to see you here and all over TV. Very uh very good stuff coming from you all week so far. Uh, with that said, I I’m excited through two rounds of the truest. I We talked pre-show about some Myrtle Beach stuff. Can I tell you, Rick, I’m a little embarrassed. Do you want to know who my three outrights were for the truest championship? Think of like three guys that are very high quality, 30 to1 or shorter, that are like at the bottom of the leaderboard. All right. Um, Justin Rose. Oh gosh, no. I I went shorter, so it’s actually uh Victor Hoff. Yes, that’s one. Um trying to think who’s at the bottom. Jordan Speed. Yes, that’s another one. And the other one, just to save you the time, is Ludvig. Like three kind of short shots that have no chance to win. Fortunately, at Myrtle, I’m doing pretty well with my outrights there. But uh not a good tournament for me, but it’s, you know, Rick, it’s good for a few guys, a few big names that are near the top. It’s been interesting. There’s actually a a a gap that’s forming and then a lot of star power right beneath that gap at at uh Philadelphia Cricket Club. Let’s start with the golf course first. It’s just a a completely different two days. See you, right? The opening round just prime conditions. It was sunny. The the fairways were were running out. The greens were receptive and the boys scorched it like three strokes under par if not a hair more closer to three and a half. And then the storms rolled in overnight. They moved up tea times. And while obviously uh it was a better situation because preferred lies were in play on Friday during the second round just like dealing with the wind and the gust and the rain coming down all around. It actually played about three shots more difficult today. Yeah. And there were some low rounds, but yeah, I mean it was it was pretty obvious too when the wind and rain started to come sort of together. I don’t know if that was around like 12:30, around 1:00 Eastern time where they were just kind of colliding. I mean, you saw just a what what looked like a lot of bad shots and it was is attributed to just vastly different weather conditions and and I guess in a sense even though with these no cut signature events, you have 72 guys rolling out and you don’t consider like a wave advantage, but clearly if you were out early today, you were in much better shape than if you were out later. Well, it’s a good point because I mean all the tea times were within two hours on both days, right? They went off split te’s, three balls and condensed the tea times for both days and there still still was that like 90 minute or twohour window um that really did play more difficult the a lot of the discussion around the first two days has been how this golf course can hold up. I mean it’s 100 years old, right? It’s a classic golf course that we are taking the the modern the modern stars to. Uh how do you feel it is standing at this point? You know, I think it’s a good question. I mean, obviously with weather that came into play a little bit today, like you said, it did seem like a tougher course. Some guys went pretty low. We’ll talk about guys like Shane Lowry. I’m looking here, Gary Woodland, who by the way is 110 to1 to win the tournament. 100 to1 depending on where you look. I just think that’s interesting. He’s six back. whatever that we’ll table that for later on in the show. But I mean, yeah, I mean, it did prove to be moderately tough today. I mean, if it’s going to be premium conditions, most courses are going to play on the PGA Tour like pretty easy. Uh, but we didn’t have premium conditions. So, there was a lot of up and down. You had to make good golf shots. And that those that did had good rounds, and those that didn’t uh were were given plus numbers next to their name. Yeah. Shocker of the century is I think it would be better if it was firm and fast, but I I don’t yet control the weather. I’m still working on I’m still working on that. Uh details to details to come. But yeah, listen, 12200 PAR through two rounds. And like I said, the the T4s are at 700. Like just just fine right there. And it’s a really cool course. It looks really good on television. That par 314 is like the cutest little thing I’ve ever seen. And I love it. And uh I need I need more of it. But let’s let’s talk about the three on the on the podium right now. And Keith Mitchell is until otherwise noted just an absolute first round leader automatic click. Is that right? Three days ago in the sports line. So sports line has a discord, right? And there’s there for all sports, NBA, MLB, NFL, of course, golf as well. And there was somebody in there, I wish I looked to give them before the show to give them credit. They gave me a shout out like was flagging me down being like Tons hadn’t been out yet. It was like Tuesday morning and they said, “Keith Mitchell, first round leader, right?” And I said, “Well, I’m going to wait for tea times even though there’s not much of a wave. I’m going to wait for T times and I’m just going to see.” And it turns out I only had two first round leaders and they they they didn’t they didn’t make it. But the fact that I didn’t just autoclick Keith Mitchell at 50 or 55 or 60 to1 given what he’s been doing in first rounds is like kind of silly. Like credit to him for doing it in the second round as well. But I I do think and I know we’ll talk about it, but I’m always sort of in that live outright mindset. I I do think that the odds that Keith Mitchell continues to do this are relatively low. I mean, even though he’s been a great ball striker, you know, just he’s just been awesome. Uh, with all that said, I mean, I I what I wonder what the true lead is here. I mean, Lowry’s played really well. Straa I is Justin Thomas at minus 7. I just wonder like I just don’t think those top three are going to win. And I think they’re all good golfers. I really do think the top three are all good golfers. I don’t think any of them are going to win. Uh Keith Mitchell opened with a 61 where he closed in 29 and then he followed it up with another good one. He picked up three strokes to the field shooting a 67 in the second round which has you know this has been the trend. He’s been he’s been off to this quick start see and then he’s just been basically plummeting down the leaderboard over the final three rounds. The one caveat that’s really interesting here is that and it’s just again these are all small sample size. We’re only through two rounds, but he’s been really delivering with the putter. And I just, again, we’re talking about, I think, almost six strokes that he’s gained with the putter. And I wonder, you know, how much that we know that’s going to decline here, but I wonder how much that’s going to regress his strokes gain approach. I mean, he almost lost two strokes on approach. Obviously, he had a good Thursday, but uh this is the kind of situation where it is sort of tailor made. I don’t know if I lost Rick or not. There he is. Ta Rick, I It’s all tailor made for Keith Mitchell to regress here. I mean, he’s not going to be gaining the next two rounds. Six six strokes with the putter. You didn’t lose me. Josh was just soloing you because you were doing your you were doing your Keith Mitchell rant. It was great. Um, when I’m when I run for president, I will have one I will have one platform platform. Yeah. And it is that it will be illegal to offer only a yes market or only a one-sided market. you’ll have to offer by law, federal law, you’ll have to offer both sides of this. That being said, I’m wondering what the odds are, maybe maybe it is out there somewhere that Keith Mitchell like does not finish in that top five. Like I would like to see what the numbers I can get for him to finish sixth or worse. Yeah, speaking of sixth, it was Sixers sixth man in the Discord that uh gave the Keith Mitchell shout out that I like pretty much ignored, which is embarrassing, but thank you, Jen, for that. Um, yeah, like so, okay, so let’s call it a guy. Is that the like the real overunder would be like three and a half, but the we know Keith Mitchell overunder is is it six? Well, I better be getting some I better be getting some some odds on that. I mean, he’s he’s five shots better than T4 right now. how he’d he could have a pretty miserable weekend and still probably finish inside the top five, but I’m not I’m not against it. Like I I think I would take my my plus money on that and see what happens. The the closest chaser. Sorry, S. Go ahead. No, I was going to say you you were talking about Shane Lowry as the closest chaser and then you’re talking about the podium with Seraka being third here. When you were asking me to sort of litigate how how this course is is holding up at the beginning of the show. when I look at this leaderboard because remember the narrative coming in there was competing narratives and there was good reason for competing narratives. Nobody was going to be super right or super wrong necessarily but it does feel like through two rounds this isn’t necessarily the the the bomber get it out there and then just handle it from there. This does feel like we’re looking at a lot of ball strikers. I mean Keith Mitchell’s a little bit of both. Uh Shane Lowry is kind of like in that vague territory but we look at Seph Straa. We look at guys like Ashe Batia, Colin Morawa. I mean these are all Patrick Kentlay is kind of different but Siwu Kim another shorter hitter like this is this is a ball striker not necessarily driving distance paradise. Well I think the idea that there were conflicting narratives shows that the truth is the truth was actually that a lot of people had a chance and that nobody was really boxed out. Um yes guys would have an advantage but nobody was boxed out. The other thing is uh look at you know like the Shane Lowry and Seb Strakas of the world they get a benefit getting to play ball in hand in the second round. So now all of a sudden uh the the fairway which we saw Rory Mroy miss the fairway by like two yards a couple of times uh in in the second round. They get an added advantage there as well. So kind of flips the the numbers a little bit. Shane Lowry 6465 and there’s always this idea that Shane Lowry because he has because he is from Ireland because he has won a an open championship at uh at Fort Rush is like some mutter. I don’t think I necessarily believe that. Well, I know what you’re going to say because of that one. I’ve said it. I’ve said it. I’m done saying it. Yes. the moment where he got a little wet at Honda and melted. That’s the moment. But he proved me at least somewhat incorrect with the 65 today. It’s impressive. And again, if you’re looking at sustainability through the first two rounds, I mean, if you’re looking at the tournament strokes gained, his is extremely impressive, and it should be because he’s second. But what I mean is other than being neutral off the tea, I mean, he’s a huge gainer on approach and he’s a moderate gainer around the green. I shouldn’t say better than moderate gainer around the green and with the putter with the short game in general. So like the sustainability factor when you look at him I mean Keith Mitchell’s kind of more the same. And again you’d expect this with the top three guys but Shane’s a guy I can never necessarily peg correctly which is why I typically don’t play him but gosh this would have been a great tournament to kind of take some contrarian not contra fully contraan in Shane Lowry’s case but just some names that weren’t mentioned a lot like Shane Lowry is certainly one of those names. Uh, Sebstraka the other man there at 10 under par or better. So he is in solo third. So that’s Mitchell at 12 under, Shane Lowry at 11 under, Sept Straka at 10 under. Seed well on Thursday, then got off to a pretty good start on Friday, birding three of his first five holes and was a little bit I mean just kind of listen guys were just trying to hang on as they uh as they played this course over the closing holes. This was a big benefit of playing out of the fairway. Sebstroka’s 2025 Promesia has been incredibly underrated. Remember, he’s won a golf tournament this year that I think people have just completely blocked out of their minds and he’s piled up top 25 finishes. He’s good. Like he’s been good for about what two to three years now where it’s like we can’t because you remember Rick back in the day like Seb Stracoa we were almost using as like a oneanddone punchline to some degree. I know. Remember the tag separ we used to uh we used to raz coach for that. That’s that’s exactly what it was. That is aged much better now. I mean, okay. Can I can I ask you just and I should probably know the answer to this question, but you you’re certainly better suited to know it. Are we playing ball in hand tomorrow as well? They haven’t announced it yet, and they will likely not announce it until within an hour of of tea times tomorrow. They will assess and and see everything. I don’t know. There were expected to be more rain this afternoon. That’s why they moved up tea times. I haven’t looked at the latest forecast. Um, my guess is they will. I I agree. My guess is that they will and and and for the sake of betting and for the sake of matchups and things of that nature, that that would leave us leaning with the guys that have already had a lot of success and that are like the true ball strikers and in accuracy type uh golfers. Yeah, you’re well Justin Thomas drove it really well um really well today, but like Colin Moricle plays really well when he gets to pick up his golf ball and yeah, Seb Straa gets to play really well because he’s not going to win on distance. He can win on accuracy and then oh by the way because I’m in the short grass I get this little added bonus. Yeah, definitely. Got it. Um those are the big three. Those are the guys on the podium, but there are thorough breads uh right behind lurking. We are going to talk about them and some guys that are on the wrong end of this leaderboard. But first, we’re going to take a quick break and hear a word from our partners. When you need your sports news all the time, we’ve got breaking news to bring to you. CBS Sports HQ gives you a snapshot of all the sports that matter to you. When you need your sports in a snap, find it on CBS Sports HQ streaming free anywhere you are. And we’re back. Let’s reset this here. So, we’ve got 12 under, 11 under, 10 under. That’s the podium. And then the big boppers lining up behind at seven underpar. That’s five shots off the lead, three shots off of third. And they are going to be trying to make moves on Saturday. Some of those names, Justin Thomas, Rory Mroy, Colin Morawa, Patrick Kentlay, every single one of those guys are seven under. Then you throw in some wild cards like Siu Kim and Asha Patia also sitting there at seven under parcia. I mean, this is this is a very cool Chase Pelaton that is trying to capture these guys. And and I I want to give a shout out to some of the six undersunders, most notably Max Homa, who appears to have turned his game enough to be respectable uh in terms of like being at least near leaderboards and I’m looking at how he got it done. Like he’s been really good with the ball strike. Is is Max like before I get into the seven unders, Rick, is Max like kind of back? Not back, but is he kind of back? I don’t I I refuse to commit to that. I don’t think so. I am going to need to see um a touch more. I hope I hope so. I really hope so. This is by far the best two rounds we’ve seen out of him in a while, but I’m going to need to see a touch more. Hasn’t Max won at Quail Hollow before? Uh yes. Wells Fargo, not PJ Championship. I’m just throwing that out there. I think there’s a tournament next week that might be at Quail. He’s He’s going to be like 900 to one. Oh, I’m I’m really That’s true. Uh we got a good number on him. Yeah, it’s not long enough, but I was more talking like DFS and things of that nature. Um, these seven unders are really interesting. Before we went live, I I looked at the the outright odds, which again, I know I’m putting the cart before the horse here, but they’re all respectable numbers because this is a really good situation for live outrights because normally when you’re in a six through2 rounds, if you’re looking at a chase pack, you’re you’re probably looking at a chase pack of guys that are chasing a Scotty or a Rory or somebody at the top. It’s it’s very different when you have Keith Mitchell at the top and guys like Seth Stra who are good but not great and then the chase pack is those guys you thought you’d be chasing through two rounds like a JT, Colin Morau or Patrick Canley. So I actually think these numbers are very fair at the sports books and and when and we we’ll look at them but of the three like big names which I would say are JT, Rory and Colin oh excuse me Kantlay as well. I actually like Kantlay the most from an odds standpoint. Uh, and I I just think the way he does things is really sustainable and that the bent grass stuff is is really obviously positive for him. And through two rounds, again, speaking of sustainability, he’s doing it everywhere except just a moderate loser with the putter. He is. Yeah. So, the way this odds board shakes out is as follows. You basically have Keith Mitchell and Shane Lowry as co-favorites right around three and a half to one. You’ve got Seph Straa who’s two shots back and then Rory Mroy who is five shots back kind of in that next tier five and a half six to one and then those other big names that you mentioned CIA the Morawa the Justin Thomas the Patrick Kentlay 12 to1 14 to1 16-1 the Kantlay stuff is interesting the only knock on Patrick Kentlay in 2025 is the putter it’s been horrible the rest of his game has been stellar you said he was a moderate loser through the first two rounds. That’s way better than most most of what we saw so far in 2025. So, I’m I trust Patrick Kentlay none, but I am very intrigued by this number and the way the golf course sets up for him. Uh again, if you look at So, unfortunately, I wasn’t on Patrick Kentley as an outright and I was debating on the betting show, Rick. I was debating between him and Jordan Speed for my oneand done, which I’m sixth out of like a thousand in and I put Jordan Speed because I’m an idiot. But I when I was sort of explaining my pick Jordan versus Patrick Kentlay, I was I was almost like talking myself into Jordan Speed in the sense that like Patrick Can is really in my opinion rounding into form and because that putter was holding him back, but because this was bent grass and it was the Northeast where he’s had a lot of success, it it really felt like the worlds were sort of colliding in a perfect way for Patrick Hantlay relative to some of the other golfers that were his caliber. I think when you’re looking at these numbers and again I’m only considering I’m not like Rory’s great but at plus 650 it’s not a consideration for me. So Colin is a consideration absolutely Justin Thomas yes Patrick Kentley yes but I may as well take the longest number and and and frankly Patrick Kentlay coming into this tournament I was more fond of him than JT and Colin anyway so I may as well take the longer number again. I I I really like this. It’s very simple math. Um, if he if he picks up like a stroke putting each of the final two days, he might win this golf tournament. This it’s actually pretty simple for Justin Thomas, too. If Justin Justin Thomas hit 10 fairways on Friday, if he hits 20 fairways on the weekend, he wins this golf tournament. Now, I don’t know how likely that is because he loves he loves to spray it around the yard. But if he he drove it so I think he led the field in strokes appro uh strokes off the tea on Friday. It was like two strokes to the positive. He had picked up two strokes on approach in round number one. I mean, he is he is showing elite high-end flashes of ball striking. He just cannot putt, which drives me which drives me bonkers. But, um, I I’m a sucker for both those guys, JT and and he did lead the field off the tea. And just FYI, the top five. Second was Sunj, then Minui, uh, then Max Homa, and then Rasmus Hygard, and then Eric Van Royan, and then then there’s Rory at at number seven there. But, uh, yeah, I mean, I I don’t anticipate Justin finding as many fairways and so I I think he could absolutely win, but again, 16 to1. Can we Josh, is it possible to scroll down to some long shots here? Yeah. So, I was Well, go ahead. Go ahead, Rick. No, I was just gonna say as as I don’t know if Josh can pull that up in a graphic form, but what I think is really interesting and I think where you’re going with this is because there is a fortified front of of really star golfers at seven under seven under par just one shot back on those guys are like 90 to 200 to one presumably because everybody that they’re going to have to pass but it is only one shot. So it does open up a scenario sea where you are getting a lot of I hate this is an overuse where like oh there’s a lot of value built into that like you’re gonna have to pass the best players in the world but but that is just one shot off of those guys you know if we can let’s keep scrolling down because we see Sanjay here at 60 we see Jerger again he’s at he’s at 7 under he’s at 66 keep scrolling down we have Max home at 80 to1 which is interesting at 6 under or is he at seven under he’s at six under Gary Woodland at 100 to one. Now, look, just I just want you to play the game with me. Let’s assume that you’re right and that I’m right and that everybody’s right that Keith Mitchell isn’t gonna win this tournament. Okay? So, if we think the real number, granted, Lowry’s only one back, but he’s only five shots back of Lowry. And again, you have to almost like convince yourself that Justin Thomas or Mroy or Colin are going to be the guy that’s going to like pass these three guys. So, what you’re asking is Gary Woodland to basically keep up with those guys and and that have everybody pass those top three. But even if you just make Shane Lowry the leader, he’s five shots up and he’s Shane Lowry. It’s not Scotty Sheffller. Gary Woodland, for the record, he probably should be seven under. If I recall, it was either on 17 or 16. He missed a short putt. I mean, he was an approach phenom today. And when he gets hot and he finds the right course, 100 to one, I just I feel like, let’s put it this way, going into Sunday, I isn’t it plausible that he has another nice round and the the top three stall and he’s three back. Isn’t it possible that that happens and he’s tied with Colin or one back of Colin and and Justin? I just think it’s possible. And though that gets slashed to 40 to one real quick. Gary Woodland missed a short putt. Are you sure? You sure it could have been anybody else? Are you positive? No. Um, listen, I am I’m a sucker for the guy who is, you know, flushing it and basically leading the field in approach and who shot a 66 in the second round while losing two strokes putting, right? Like I love that. I am just like my big thing is I just I don’t I don’t think Gary has a plus one putting day in him. I I just don’t. He’s just really, really bad and he’s going to have to out hit a bulky flat stick for 36 holes. I do want to point one other thing out. There are some, and I don’t know that Bit MGM offers this, but there are some books that offer that that crazy without market where they throw five names in there and they keep it up the whole tournament. Well, those crazy five names, just so everybody knows, are Rory, Xander, Colin, JT, and Ludvig. Now, Ludvig has no chance to win, and I don’t think Xander has much of a chance to win. However, Rory, Colin, and JT very much do have a chance to win. That adjusted Gary Woodland number, taking those five out, but really, we’re taking three out is 75 to one. I enjoy that number. Just throwing that out there. I would like um I would like a a a market tonight that is the without Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, Seth Straka market, and let’s just let’s just start this thing at seven under and let the let the boys have at it. I Yes, I would like that a lot. Um what else? I mean, we’ve got I I think I mean, can we assume the fives are too far back because of Yes. Yeah. Right. There’s just too many guys and there’s they’re superstars. And to be honest, the only reason I’m even considering the sixes is because I I think there’s some talented guys in the sixes. Like it’s not just anybody at 600. I think Gary Woodland’s the type of guy that can just ball strike a course and if he can get hot with the putter can can be that guy. But I do think it probably stops at the seven unders where that and that happens to be where all the talent is which is why we had such a discussion on Kantlay and and Justin and Colin and and I I opt for Kantlay there. Uh last thing before we get you get you out of here uh because you you mentioned him earlier. Ludvig is three under. He’s in a tie for 33rd. He’s gone 6671 this week. He made 17 consecutive pars to start his day on Friday and then he bogeied the 18th which is just like a bizarre um you know kick in the stomach while you’re already making 17 pars in a row. What is your what is your concern level for Ludvig at this point at all? It’s only concern as it relates to the next few tournaments and including the PGA Championship because you know while I do subscribe to the theory that a superstar can just turn it on at any given moment because that’s what superstars do. I I think we have a like a decent sample size that Ludvig is just not playing. We haven’t seen enough we haven’t seen enough of a sampling whether it be for a round or two of Ludvig like really turning it on where the guys his caliber we have seen that from from Colin the last you know all year kind of Justin Thomas like so because we look at Ludvig from an odd odds standpoint and we see him shorter than some of those guys I just mentioned I I just have no I just have no interest. I think he’s a good fit at Quail Hollow and and I think he could be okay, but the iron game hasn’t been good and we see it hasn’t been good through two rounds. The putter hasn’t been good. So, my concern level short-term is high. My concern level, if we’re talking about, you know, July or August is is is not super high. Yeah, it’s been kind of weird since his victory. He was in it on Sunday at the Masters. um faded a little bit, but other than that, hasn’t hasn’t been a lot of good golf out of out of Ludvig, so which means he’ll probably be in the final group on Sunday, next week, PGA Championship. Also, um editor’s note here, uh Max Home is 150 to one next week at Quail Hollow. So, oh, just thought you should know that. Geez, how about Max for like a a top 20? That’s probably a pretty huge number still not huge, but I also think that we’re going to get I I also think by the time this thing kicks off on on Thursday, he will be longer than 150 to one. So, I think that you’re probably going to get even better top 20 number. Do you have an early uh Do you have an early take on a PGA champion? I I have one guy that I’ve already kind of The problem is Okay. Who is it? It’s Bryson at 14 to1. Yeah. So, I think Bryson and Rory have the they have there’s something we’ll talk about this a lot next week, but there is um if you’re like 10 yards longer than everybody else at Quail, you’re like 40 yards better because of the angles and the lines that you can take that other guys cannot take. So, um it is why Maroy has an unbelievable advantage there. Why he’s had unbelievable success. So, that level of of of elite driving is incredibly valuable. last week. Uh side note, Josh helping us out. The top 20 on Max currently at present is plus 450, which by the way is the middle point between the odds of Scotty Sheffller and Rory Mroy to win next week. So Max top 20 is the same as Scotty or Rory to win at Quail Hollow. PGA Championship next week. It’s almost the PGA Championship. We still have two rounds to go here at the truest championship. Early wedge is got you covered nearly every single day. Big thanks for now to producer Josh. That right there is CIA Nad. I’m Rick Aan. This has been the early wedge. We’ll catch you next time. [Music]