Masters round one recap, Round two preview, Updating LIVE bets

The Golfbet team is recapping day one at the Masters. Justin Rose holds a three shot lead over Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners and Ludvig Aberg, with Bryson Dechambeau four shots back. We give our picks for who you should be eying the rest of the week.

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It’s time to update your bets for the Masters. Round two on Friday and we saw some interesting things on Thursday. Very different endings for Rory Maroy and Scotty Sheffller. Who you picking this weekend? Who else on that leaderboard has good value? We have all previews and predictions for round two at the Masters with Justin Row sitting at top right now. His fifth time leading the Masters after the first round. He’s never won before. Will Gray, Chris Bree, Casey Johnson. Uh guys, this leaderboard is awesome. A lot to talk about. Will, first thoughts about tomorrow heading into Friday. Yeah, quite an interesting day here in Augusta. Uh maybe more interesting last hour or two uh as Rory Maroy uh rode the roller coaster in a big way and now uh everyone’s chasing Justin Rose, but it does feel like Scotty Sheffller has yet to wobble. So, uh, the the field has thinned, uh, maybe not as considerably as we thought. I know we’re going to get into some of those historical trends that that really show that this is a front runners race here at Augusta National, but, uh, it was it was definitely an interesting afternoon more so than the morning. All right, let’s do Scotty and Rory. Man, Rory, that seven on 15, let’s just call it like it is, will uh, did he demoralize himself? Did he have those pretzel moments that you talked about uh the other day or can this guy actually come back and forget about the last four holes? Uh well, I will uh seed offering my opinion. I will instead uh shine light on what Jack Nicholas said this morning in the interview room after hitting one of the honorary T-shots. He said that he had lunch with Rory Maroy a couple weeks ago and they went through his entire game plan for Augusta National. Rory explained it to him shot by shot and Jack said, "I didn’t say a word. It was the exact game plan that I would use here at Augusta. The problem is Jack said Rory will sometimes stumble into a seven or an eight and it derails him and lo and behold, here we go chipping in the water on 15, makes a seven. Compounds his error with a sloppy double then on 17. It’s it’s amazing. You know, our colleague Jamie Kennedy had at the screen grab. Rory standing in the middle of the 15th fairway after bombing a drive and he’s at four under and he doesn’t break par today. It’s I think demoralizing is the word I would go with and and listen, he was doing everything right for 14 and a half holes and then it came undone so quickly as it often does here at Augusta National. You guys know my stance on Rory uh and winning this week or winning the Masters in general and I have no reason to stray at this point. So these odds are too low. Way too low. Yeah, I mean I I think so. Maybe the Can he get into the top five? Yes. Would I bet it at plus 210? probably not because he he does I mean listen this is a quick turnaround right the the way that these t tea times are are set up he’s going to be back on the course very quickly he opted not to speak to the media after his round and I think that just like he’s not going to try and make up seven shots on Justin Rose tomorrow he’s probably got to work it in chunks and try and uh you know make up two or three and get a little bit closer and a little bit closer to give himself a chance but yeah I I think that last four and a half holes have really just sunk his battleship yeah will I got to tell you I I I I had a double take when I saw these plus 1,200 live to win. I was like, did did they see these holes I just finished? And I know it’s Rory and there’s probably some money coming in, but I mean 12 12 to one after what we just saw and you know the deficit he’s got. Um you know Chris, we spoke about it yesterday. Rory’s first rounds and majors, especially in the Masters. Uh he’s got two sub70 first rounds at the Masters since 2011, I believe it is. Uh another one that doesn’t check the box today. But here’s my take. That was some classic Rory back n Sunday of a major. Okay, maybe he got it out of the way on Thursday and he’s like, you know what? I still got three rounds. I’m still in this thing. He always blows it when there’s no time to come back. He’s got three more days to battle back from it. Maybe he got his blowup out of the way on Thursday and we see him battle back a bit. But I think we’re going to know through the first, you know, three to five holes tomorrow where his mental at it. But I think guys, remember this this was the whole exam for him. Rory was the guy coming into the opening round where it’s like you just need him to not shoot himself out of this tournament as he has often done on Thursday whether it’s a 73, 75, 77, what have you. And he did it. He had it on a silver platter sitting there. Not only, you know, someone that was chipping away at one or 200, he was right in the mix and for it to just fall apart so quickly uh is just it was shocking and and I really think it’s going to be a gut punch for him. It’s that 75 they always talk about, right? Rory always has a random 75 in a major. And let’s be honest, it felt like a 75 today. It didn’t feel like a 72. And Casey, you’re absolutely right. We’ll know by the turn tomorrow morning if Rory Mroy is in this thing. He’s going to be two over or he’s going to be three under. What do you think? Yeah. And I got to tell you, if if we’re based off of how he reacts to bad holes, today was not a good sign. I mean, it took a swing on 15 and it seemed like his whole world fell apart. It was one swing and all of a sudden from there he was a completely different golfer than he was from the the entire start of the day. Um it’s concerning to see when we know it’s such a mental mental thing with Rory Atagusta for the mental already be creeping in this early. Uh not a great sign, but again maybe he got it out of the way early and he’s got three days to kind of battle back and shake that off. Remains to be seen. All right, Will. What about Sheffler? Uh the books already basically have him winning at plus 200. Uh there’s plenty of big names around him and there’s three days to go and we all know how this can change no matter how good Scotty Sheffller can be. Is there anything in your mind that tells you that Sheffller is going to regress in the next three days? Because I personally didn’t think he hit the ball that great today. He’s not going to keep making 50 foot putts. Is he going to get better off the green though? Chris, if you didn’t love Scotty Shuffler at plus 400. If you didn’t like him at 400 before the tournament, you’re gonna love him at plus 200 here after the opening round. Listen, I for me, it’s more just a clean scorecard. He’s the only one that made it around Augusta National today without making a bogey. And so, yeah, if he plays 72 holes, doesn’t make a bogey, I’m pretty sure he can keep that green jacket. And but you’re right, it wasn’t it wasn’t one of those rounds that really jumped off the page like we saw with Rory early on. I know Ash had things going. Lig there were some guys that had, you know, four, five, six whole stretches. You’re like, "Wow, this it’s really coming together. Scotty just kind of was very methodical as we’ve seen so often from him." And the difference between him and Rory is he was missing in the right spots. Scotty also hit it long on 15 where we saw Patrick Canland make a mess, but what does Scotty do? He chips it up short. He makes a two putt. Does he make a birdie on a birdie hole? No. But he lives to fight another day. And that’s really where I think the difference lies between a two-time Masters champion and guys that are chasing their first green jacket is you have to know and and Tiger has talked about this so often about this course. You know where to to hit the gas and go for the birdies, but more often than not, the key is missing in the right spots. That’s what Scotty did today and that’s what a lot of the other contenders were unable to do. Yeah. Well, I’m kind of on the same page of really the the bogey free round is what’s catching my eye. But Chris, when you talk about the regression, I think it kind of catches my eye in that regard. May need to fact check here. I believe that was Scotty’s just his second round bogey free at the Masters. So, you know, history says that in some form of fashion, he’s going to regress a little bit, right? Like there’s going to be some bogeies that start finding their way on that card. Does that line up with more birdies as well? So, uh interested to see where he plays out. It doesn’t feel like a give it a Scotty kind of week yet. Um could feel like that come tomorrow afternoon, though. He’s down by three and he’s plus 200. The guy who’s leading, will is Justin Rose getting enough respect or have we seen this too many times where he gets these leads five times? Now, the odds are saying he’s still got a ways to go even if he’s leading after the the second round tomorrow almost even money at plus 150. What do you think about Rose realistically? Let’s just start with tomorrow. What do you expect from him tomorrow? The thing with Justin Rhodess is I don’t think he’s going to go away. I think that you could have some guys that we’ve seen, no offense to Charlie Hoffman, but he’s a guy that comes up often in, you know, Masters first round leader markets. He’s he’s spiked it before and then kind of fades off. I don’t think Justin Rose is going to go away. I think he’s going to be in the mix uh throughout the rest of this weekend. And I do think the plus 700 is an interesting number. I would have loved to have been on the, you know, 70 80 to1 pre-ournament uh before he went and shot lights out and puts up a 65 to to move ahead of the pack, but I do think that looking at this board and looking at a player of his history, remember, we’re eight years removed from him having one arm in the green jacket before losing the playoff to Sergio Garcia, he’s already a major champion and and he has played really well in two of the last three majors, T6 at Valhalla, T2 at Royal TR. It was interesting listening to him in the interview room today after his round and he’s talking about at age 44, he kind of feels freed up. He says, "Listen, the headlines of my career are already written. Olympic champion, major champion, Rder Cup hero, world number one." He feels like he’s done enough and it gives him a little bit of freedom to go and chase what would really just be icing on the cake and certainly a tournament that he wants to win. But it’s it’s kind of an interesting mentality, interesting position for him to be in. I don’t think he’s going to be really scared of Scotty Sheffler. He said that he takes notice of what Sheffller’s doing, but it’s not something that really impacts his mentality on the course. And I just think that the game that he has shown in majors recently and at Augusta historically really shapes up well for him to stay in this thing. Well, that’s a that’s a good spiel. I mean, the the him being a little more freed up is not It’s a great point, but you know, he almost sold me. I was getting close there like, am I going to am I going to flip? But no, we’re standing firm. Uh Justin Rose is gonna go away. Uh I think we find out early tomorrow too. Um will you make good point like it’s not as much as the mental game with Rory that he’s dealing with and that you know it’s he’s trying to get this career grand slam and he knows the history here. Rose is what he is now at this point. You know if he loses this Masters that’s not going to be a huge dent on his resume for his full career. It’ll be you know another first round lead that he got. So, uh, I do like that take of his mental being a little more freed up, but it’s the Masters. We got some big names up there. We got some big names lurking. Um, I’m I’m interested to see, similar to Rory, his first couple holes, uh, because I was ready to come in here strong and say, I think we see some bogeies, maybe even a double very early on for Justin Rose. Um, but you know what, Will selling me a bit here. Let me ride a first couple of holes out and uh, we can revisit this. Ride it for one day and then you can just throw it away. I will say, Chris, going back to what Casey said with with the doubles, that’s something I I really want to keep an eye on and something that goes back to Rory. Great stat from from Brandle Shambbley entering this week that if you go back over the last 40 years, an eventual Masters champion has made a double bogey at any point in the tournament only six times. And that includes the Scotty Sheffller for putt on the last hole that basically was inconsequential in 2022. You look at Rory already having two. That’s that’s a really big disqualifier and something to keep an eye on as we move forward in this tournament is you just cannot afford to make a double bogey. You’re going to make bogeies. You’re going to make hit bad shots. You know, balls are going to bounce in every which way. But the key is keeping those double boxes off the scorecard and that’s going to be a big factor for Rose and the other leaders in the board. Did you guys see the stat? I think it was the last champion to make a seven was Craig Stadler. Did you guys see that one? Yes. 82. Not great for Rory. No, baby. That just gives more boxes for Rory to check historically this week if he does it right. He’s got to stick to it. That’s the story line, right? Uh what I think is the coolest stat this week is the winner of the Masters the last 21 years after the first day is almost always inside the top 10, tied for 10 or better. The only person in the last 21 years is Tiger Woods outside of the top 10. Every other champion has been on this first page of the leaderboard. There’s a caveat here though, Will. Obviously, we have a lot of guys, although this this is 10 because there’s there’s a bunch of guys that won under par who are 11th. Do you think so this is a perfect scenario here. Do you think the winner is absolutely on this page or do we go down the list of a million guys in 11th place who you think who might have a chance? It’s not a million, but it’s more than maybe the statistitians would like. I I do think if you look back, I mean, Tiger in 2005 is really the outlier that we’re working around. He was like T33 and went on to beat Chris Marco in a playoff. Uh Justin Ray had a good a good stat after the round where he had 18 of the last 19 have been within four shots of the lead. So, if you look at it from that perspective, you’re going down to the T5 group with Bryson and Terrell Hatton. Uh, but I think a lot of it hinges on Justin Rose, right? If he goes out tomorrow and shoots anything in the 60s and puts, you know, the plants the flag at 10 under or double digits, that that board is going to shorten in a hurry. If he comes back to the field and now all of a sudden the lead is essentially four under or maybe give Sheffller a little bit more of an advantage, then yeah, the guys at one under that that include some really interesting names are still going to feel like they’re going to be in the mix. So, uh, it is it is a very tidy 16-way tie for 11th at, uh, at one under. You can kind of throw a dart and pick someone in that group and and have something to talk about. But by and large, this is a front runners golf course. This is a place where it’s just hard to play catchup. And, you know, I had a chance to talk to Justin Rose and Shuffler about this. Jason Day has some great comments of just the me the mental tax of trying to be in chase mode at Augusta National for 54 holes is so strong that it eventually will wear on you. And a lot of the guys that I talked to put more emphasis on that element than necessarily the the physical demands of the golf course and the course getting harder and more difficult uh as the weekend progresses. Yeah. Well, I agree. Like you said, I mean it’s this is going to come down to how Rose plays. if we get, you know, guys into that one under group uh getting in the mix. Um, you know, that that one under group, like you said, it’s very deep, which kind of helps with this stat that maybe this is the year it could it could break up a little bit. Um, but but like you said, like with that gap where Rose is after that, you know, that whole T11 group, you know, with the 20 whatever it is, 25 26 guys, they’re all within four shots of each other. So really, you’re getting rid of that really big chase element. And I think, you know, I think when you see Rory, like we mentioned, at the, you know, plus 1200, I think the books think that obviously Justin Rose is going to come back down to earth a little bit and not keep staying out there because Rory wouldn’t be seven back at Augusta and be plus 1200. So, um, it’s going to be interesting what Rose does tomorrow. If I that’s part of it, too. I think it makes it more interesting. He comes back to earth because yes, the the chase element at Augusta is brutal, but there’s not much too too much of a chase right now with a big big grouping at the top of that leaderboard in those first four shots. Um, obviously could change very quickly. Uh, but but should be interesting to see a lot a lot of different variables at play that uh could change up how these odds look at the end of tomorrow. You guys, I I count five major champions at one under par. Six if you include Fred Couppples. Yes, it’s six with Fred Couppples. all those major champions. Victor Havlin has won the FedEx. Uh Daniel Burgerer knows how to win. Minimu Lee just won. I’m naming some more guys you may think are out of it, but there are a lot of players who are under par. And Will, we’ve been saying the records are made to be broken. Obviously, it has a lot to do with the two guys up top here, Rose and Sheffler, what they do tomorrow and maybe even on Saturday. I mean, realistically, if these guys are going to continue to play good golf, you think these guys who are in 11th place right now might be eight shots off the lead by Saturday. Well, I mean, if you’re if you’re going to if you’re at one under right now and you’re going to win the golf tournament, you’re going have to go low tomorrow, right? So, let’s figure that the the lead tomorrow at some point is around 10 under or thereabouts. If I’m at one under, I need to get to five. I need to get to six. I need to cut into that gap, whether it’s Justin Rose or one of these guys at four under uh putting the pedal to the metal. So, they it’s a it’s a two-part uh equation in that regard. I will say I do want to give a flower 865 beat the number two, three, and four players. So only at Augusta pooping sixiron hybrid have and will continue to happen tact I’m curious your thoughts on one you said you know someone wants to get back not 400 not 300 range they’re going to have to go low tomorrow we’re hearing a lot on the broadcast about how this is like an alltime weather out there it’s gorgeous out heard Scott talk about the green start being a bit firm Just from a boots on the ground perspective, like do you think that’s going to be out there? Like is there going to be is it chasing conditions between the course and the weather? Tomorrow is the big question mark with the weather. The forecast show right now overnight into the morning hours. It does look like there are going to be some winds that are going to kick up a little bit more than what we saw today. We’re seeing some forecasts in the 15 to 20 mph range, which is really going to change things in a big way depending on what part of the of the field has to deal with that. If it’s the Rose and Rory group that’s going to be out early or if it’s more of the late guys. So, uh it’ll we’ll have a better feel for it when we when we’re, you know, the sun is rising uh and we we know what’s going on tomorrow. But I I think that after Friday, it is just going to be like the the weather we saw today, kind of a chamber of commerce day. And I I was surprised this morning the course was pretty soft underground and then as the day went on it just really baked out and and it was especially evident I think in some of those new greens 18 15 and 16. We’ve heard a lot of guys talking about it. 15 came into play in a big way between Rory and Patrick Kentlay and Sheffller as we discussed. Those are greens that Augusta National totally redid entering this year’s Masters. They are a little bit firmer it seems than some of the others as they’re starting to grow in. And so I think especially 15 as you get that pin on the left over the weekend that we’ve we’ve all come to know and love in those historical Masters moments, man, that that target is going to get so small of where you can hit and still keep it on the green and not have it roll over and face some of those really tricky chips. So the firmness of the greens is definitely going to be a story line. I think tomorrow is the day to keep an eye on the weather. If there’s going to be an impact, it’s going to be felt tomorrow and then it’s all, you know, downhill to the finish line for the weekend. 13 was playing close to par today, too. It was like 4.9 something strokes for the first time in a very long time. So, it’s it’s very different out there. We hope this helped uh everybody updating their bets for Friday at the Masters. And of course, we’ll be back tomorrow after the cut to talk more about the 2025 Masters. [Music]