[SleepyJ] (0:00 – 0:06)
SleepyJ opens the discussion, stating he has one pick for a first round leader but allows “Uncle Dave” (Dave Essler) to present his selections first.
[Dave Essler] (0:07 – 2:05)
🌧️ Opening Remarks: Weather Commentary
Quote: “I really wish you’d send us stuff down here in Florida, wherever. We’re drying up.”
Analysis: Dave uses a brief weather-related digression to highlight dry conditions in Florida. Though unrelated to player analysis, it sets a conversational and relaxed tone for the show.
🏌️ Pick #1: Keith Mitchell – 45 to 1 Odds
Quote: “He’s playing too well not to. He’s also about 70th in the FedEx Cup standings…”
Player Stats & Analysis:
Recent finishes: 12th at Valero, 2nd at Punta Cana (noted as a split field event).
Status: Approximately 70th in FedEx Cup standings, emphasizing urgency due to new cutoff format (top 70 instead of top 125).
Key Insight: Mitchell may not win overall but has potential for a strong Thursday round if putting aligns.
Contextual Note: Dave underscores the tighter qualification stakes in the current format, making early-round performances more critical.
🏌️ Pick #2: Tommy Fleetwood – 30 to 1 Odds
Quote: “He always seems to have that one round that keeps him out of the circle. And I’m going to bet it’s not Thursday.”
Player Stats & Analysis:
Strengths: 12th in Shots Gained Total, 9th in Approach, above average putter.
Weaknesses: Not long off the tee, which is a disadvantage on long courses, but mitigated here due to shorter course (~7,100 yards).
Reputation: Strong all-around player, often just one round away from contending.
Key Insight: Dave finds value in Fleetwood at 30 to 1, calling it “a gift,” especially considering course length suits his skill set.
🏌️ Pick #3: Denny McCarthy – 45 to 1 Odds
Quote: “He’s opened this year on Thursday, five times with 68 or better…”
Player Stats & Analysis:
Early Round Form: Five sub-69 Thursday rounds in 2024.
Key Strength: Hot putter, particularly early in tournaments.
Course Compatibility: Dave believes the course suits McCarthy’s game, especially if his putting excels.
Key Insight: McCarthy is positioned as a high-upside pick if conditions align.
[SleepyJ] (2:05 – 3:20)
🏌️ Pick #4: Justin Thomas – 25 to 1 Odds
Quote: “His game right now is in a great place… absolutely slaughtered the field on day one.”
Player Stats & Analysis:
Momentum: Coming off a dominant opening round at the RBC.
Confidence: SleepyJ believes JT “checks all the boxes” for leading day one.
Key Consideration: Avoiding sand and rough will be critical to his success.
Tee Time Insight:
Quote: “Tee time start here is going to be at 1109… last guy goes off at like 130.”
Analysis: Highlights the absence of the usual early/late tee time dynamic due to the uniform midday scheduling in signature events.
Strategic Note: SleepyJ emphasizes that tee time won’t influence performance as strongly as usual, increasing confidence in JT’s consistent form.
📊 Summary of Player Picks and Betting Odds
Player Odds Key Stats / Context
Keith Mitchell 45 to 1 12th Valero, 2nd Punta Cana, urgent FedEx standing; needs strong show
Tommy Fleetwood 30 to 1 12th Shots Gained Total, 9th Approach, short-course advantage
Denny McCarthy 45 to 1 Five rounds of 68 or better on Thursdays in 2024, elite putter
Justin Thomas 25 to 1 RBC first-round domination, current strong form, midday tee-time leveler
🧠 Final Thoughts
The conversation delivers a well-rounded set of predictions based purely on performance data, course characteristics, and player trends. Dave Essler focuses on value bets and consistency in early rounds, while SleepyJ goes with recent form and top-tier talent. The limited tee time window neutralizes typical scheduling biases, placing more emphasis on current form and course fit than weather or timing advantages.
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First round leaders, I have one. I’m gonna let you rip and run first though, Uncle Dave, this week. First round leaders, who are you looking at? Well, I want to digress to the rain. I really wish you’d send us down here in Florida, wherever we’re drying up. I mean, it’s good to get the roll off the tease, but uh I would prefer the courses stay green. So, if you have anything you don’t know what to do with, you know where to send it. Um, but I digress to first round leaders and I I went with Keith Ke, excuse me, Keith Mitchell at 45 to1. He’s playing too well not to. Um, he’s also about 70th in the FedEx Cup standings, which yeah, I know it’s early to be talking about them, but this year it’s only the top 70 that get in. It used to be 125. And I think that’s super important the way the format is. I mean, there’s not a ton of opportunities anymore for the for the middle of the field with the newer format. and you almost have to win one anymore or be elite enough that you’ve got a bunch of top 20s or better. But Mitchell had a 12th in Valero, a second Puna, which that was a splitfield event and it really only kind of magnifies what I said about points. I don’t think he can win. Uh but if he can putt well, he can go low. Uh my guy Tommy Fleetwood at 30 to1. I know he hasn’t won on tour, but that doesn’t mean he can’t go low. I mean, he always seems to have that one round that keeps him out of the winner circle. And I’m going to bet it’s not Thursday. I mean, he’s not long off the tea. Um, which hurts on courses like last week, 7,600 y, but you know, this one’s only a tad over 7,100 yards. I mean, and the guy’s 12th in shots gain total on tour, ninth in approach, an above average putter. So, you know, I think 30 to1 is kind of a gift for someone of his talent. And I’ll throw one more at you, Sleepy. Uh, Denny McCarthy 45 to one. Um he said uh he’s opened this year on Thursdays five times with 68 or better this year and you know it’s going to take a lower number than that I think this week. Uh but if his putter gets hot, which it often does, I think this is a great course for him. Uh so there’s three guys we’ll be looking at Thursday uh on the nice weather day. All right, so Uncle Dave gave you three. I’m going to give you one. You didn’t mention my guy there, Uncle Dave. I’m going to go with Justin Thomas at 25 to1. his game right now is in a great place and, you know, he’s coming off of that big win there at the RBC where he just absolutely slaughtered the field on day one. I think if he comes in with, you know, the same mindset and and the same type of game that he came into the RBC with, there’s probably no way that he’s not at least flirting with being the first round leader. He checks all the boxes. I think if he can avoid the sand, probably the rough, uh, that he has everything that he needs to go ahead and lead the pack here for day one. One other thing to touch on here, Uncle Dave, you know, with these signature events, it’s not like we have early morning tea time starters. Tea time start here is going to be at 11:09 and the last guy goes off at like 1:30. So, it’s not like we have that traditional early morning, late afternoon. So, I wasn’t too uh I wasn’t too locked in on just looking for early morning starters. So, went ahead went with JT here. So, I don’t really necessarily think that that’s going to be, you know, that much of a factor this week. So, there’s four first round leaders for you guys. Hopefully we go ahead get one of those and tickets to go ahead and
