It’s a new location, but the same great names are competing for the top spot at this week’s 2025 Truist Championship!
Now at the Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course, can Ludvig Aberg get his second win of the season at 16-1 odds, or is this another gimme for the favorite Rory McIlroy at 4-1?
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 19th stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E19).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:29 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
03:34 Scottie Scheffler Wins The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
07:49 2025 PGA Championship Early Betting Preview
11:07 Caddie Notes: Philadelphia Cricket Club Breakdown
16:48 Club Twirls: 2025 Truist Championship Picks & Predictions
17:13 The Favorites
25:20 The Mid-Range
31:48 The Longshots
40:19 The Hat Pick
41:19 Final Picks
42:11 Plugs + Outro
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🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the 19th hole. We are live on In between Media. We are sports, we are lifestyle, and everything in between. Uh it was a wash out in rainy Texas this week. Uh Sky Shuffler did his thing. He did it extremely well, painfully well to our pocketbooks. We’re moving on to the truest at uh the some cricket club in Philly. Uh we’ll get over all that uh right after the drop. Oops, there we are. Hey, Connor. How you doing, buddy? Uh, this couldn’t be any better, Bo. Couldn’t be any better. You look great. All right, this is a truest week. This is a new tournament. Uh, everybody’s excited, especially the investors in the PGA Tour. Uh, Connor Coughlin, we we we had a long weekend with the Scotty Sheffler running away. Uh, do you have anything to drink tonight or is are we just going to tip our cap to Scotty and move on? I will be indulging in ice water and uh chasing it with the flu at some point. Well, Phelis Cinco de Mayo, this is the first of uh continuing Monday night slots, 10:00 Eastern time going forward for the rest of the season or until we change it again. Stay tuned. Got to keep got to keep you on your toes. For the foreseeable future, Monday nights at 1000 p.m. Eastern will be the live version of the 19th hole. We’re always going to do it live, but we wanted to let you know that this is the first of a few at least a few Monday night shows. Uh I’m I’m ready for it. Let’s Let’s dive right in uh with the news nibck. Oh, in case you were wondering, Connor, I’m drinking a tequila and spin drift pineapple sparkling water. That actually sounds amazing. I It’s really good. I could just drink this. This is just It’s really good. Well, I think you probably will just drink it. Cinco de Mayo. I didn’t even have any tacos or anything like nothing today. I we I was going to make fajitas and I just didn’t have the energy. So, uh I we ordered uh tacos from Seoul and it was it’s awesome every time. But we got tacos on singo. That’s I’m not going to break the streak. That’s not not so much as a corona. I did nothing today. Ah, take the L, my friend. Speaking of taking the L, it was a shellacking. It was a lacquering. It was a Texas size butt whooping by the Dallas native himself, Scotty Sheffller on the rest of the poor field at the CJ Cup, Byron Nelson. Obviously, Scotty Sheffller is intertwined with Byron Nelson in Texas golf history and lore. Uh they’re both legends in their own right. They even met when Scotty was just a kid and Byron Nelson was in his 80s. This is a This is a good win. It’s the first win on the on the season for the world number one. We knew it was a matter of time. You probably could have guessed that he was gonna win after he shot an opening round 61 and then followed it up with a very spittle little squeaky clean 63 on Friday after starting his round with eight pars. We’re like, “Oh no, Scotty’s not he’s going to backslide because everybody else is going to score.” Oh no, no, no, no, no, no. Scotty Eagles number nine, followed by a very long weather delay, which pushed the afternoon wave into a tough bracket, which also helped Scotty win by a ton of strokes. He comes back uh scorches the front nine again. He I think he’s he would have won the tournament if he only played the front nine. So if he played 36 holes of just the front nine, he would have still beaten Eric Vanroyan. That is mindblowing. That’s mindblowing stuff. It’s his best round strokes gained to par in four in since he started his career and it’s one of the best strokes gained rounds of all time. I think fourth best ever. Uh talk about Scotty Sheffller at Texas. Mr. Connor. Well, I hope people read my my column because I did have Scotty Shepler on my card and I did take him at plus 280 because I looked at I looked at the stats and we were I was looking at Scotty and I was like, look, he is such a level above the rest of this field. Two to three. I mean, just insane. And and 280 somehow felt like a little bit of a value for him. So, I did grab him. I think he slid to as much as plus 350 at one point uh when he was on his par streak. But um but yeah, I I did get I did continue my streak and uh just goes to show you just goes to show you not only listen to the show, but read the article. Not everything from the article makes it to the show. Yeah. And the show unfortunately didn’t include you last week because you would have talked some reason into us about how we shouldn’t ignore that Scotty Sheffller was number one in our models by quite a stretch and it was just a numbers game where we sprayed and prayed that Scotty wouldn’t be the boogeyman this week. And boy was he ever the grim reaper. Even from Thursday on it was Scotty was he was pl he was minus 220 after the first round. Lights out. Just go home guys. You’re not going to catch him. I think I think what we’re starting to realize is that we’re getting one of two things happening this year on tour. It’s either the favorite wins and you and you kind of hit yourself for not being there, which is why I’ve kind of started being there or it’s or it’s a first- timer or a long shot. And so, um, yeah, I’m going to probably keep doing the same thing. Overinvest a little bit at the top and, you know, buckshot the bottom and and hope I get lucky on one end or the other. It sure seems like a trend right now. So, yeah, let’s go with that. All right, I am adding up this stat model here because I didn’t like the first run. The first run was a little rough. I’m on my third one. Oh, you are? Okay. I’m just running this first one because uh did we have another story? Yes, we’re looking ahead to next week because I I’ll talk about this week a little later, but next week is the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in Charlotte. It’s going to be an awesome tournament. The PGA has rarely had a better course than Quail Hollow. And just because it’s on the the full-time rotation on the PGA Tour does not make it less of a golf course. It is a spectacle attention viewing every year when when the PGA Tour comes around to Charlotte at Quail Hollow. That’s that’s the the difference is the PGA Championship should be something that reward that shows off professional golf as a whole and Quail Hollow is a great atmosphere for that. And we got the all the stories coming in. It’s Rory’s house. But if Jordan Spe wins it, he gets the career grand slam a cup the ne very next major after Rory completed it. Uh there’s lots of cool things to look ahead to. Connor, how do you feel about looking ahead to Quill Hollow next week? Well, I love Quail Hollow and to your point, I love anywhere that Rory historically does really well. I mean, I I think I could have guessed that. Wow. I mean I when you the Quail Hollow I mean the nice thing about this event the truest is outside of this year we’re going to get that we get to see Quail Hollow every year for the next five or six years. Um so I always enjoy this time of year um just because of that. I love watching Quail Hollow. Um and like like I just said I love I love watching Rory excel. Um you know that I I like Rory and I like Scotty up top. I think they’re both at plus 500 right now. Um, you know, I don’t hate betting on both of them. Uh, getting a number ahead of uh ahead of it sliding a bit. You know, the speed narrative I want to believe, right? Like I I want Jordan to get it done. How crazy would that be? Rory gets it done, then Jordan gets it done the very next. He’s definitely in that trending category with his recent form. He is, but it’s just it’s Jordan’s feet, man. I just I don’t I don’t know that I see him having having the having the gumption. He is a ratings bonanza. That guy is a thrill to watch play. That’s that’s what everybody loves about Jordan Speed is you’re looking it’s a train wreck every time. You can’t take your eyes off it. You know, he’s either going to blow up into smitherreens or he’s going to somehow miraculously get out of trouble over and over again like he’s MacGyver out there. Uh that’s that’s the appeal. And I would love to see him complete the career grand slam next week. I’ll be I’ll be cheering for him for sure. I mean, I I like Spee’s got his idiosyncrasies, but I I I enjoy Speed. I’d like to see him get it done. Um, but yeah, he’s he’s always a wild card. We’ll just we’ll have to see what what game he brings, but um yeah, I’m looking forward to it. Um Quail Hollow in major major for like major uh conditions. I think I think it’s great to it’s it’s going to be great golf to watch. It’s going to be a great tournament. It’s going to be challenging but fair. Um y super pumped about it. Let’s go. Well, let’s move on to talking about this week’s tournament at the truest. Uh let’s see what kind of caddyy notes we might have for a golf course that nobody’s seen except for on the senior PGA Tour. Well, uh, Connor, tell me what you know about this this place where they’re playing this week. Uh, it’s the cricket club. Uh, no. So, uh, this is the Truse Championship, formerly the Wells Fargo, typically held at Quail Hollow. This year being held at Philadelphia Cricut Club, the Wisah Hakan Course in Flowertown, PA. It is a signature event. 72 players in this field, no cut. Everybody gets four rounds. It is a par 70, 7,19 yards. Greens and fairways are bent, rough is fescue. Um, and really the the course itself plays I mean obviously the yardage would tell you this, but it plays on the shorter side and I think that’s amplified a bit uh given some of the strategic bunkering around this place. This place has got upwards of 120 bunkers uh that are actually in play. Seems excessive, Connor. Yeah. Apparently they had an overage of sand on the lot, so they had to build some bunkers. I don’t really know but or they just really had fun digging those holes. It’s like it’s like they read the blueprint wrong. built a bunker over here and they’re like, “No, no, it’s supposed to be over there.” And they just left it. The designer is AW Tilahast, who is notorious for seeing a sand dune and saying, “Let’s carve holes in it.” Oh, and we’ll get to him. Um, but uh yeah, so distance here, distance never hurts anywhere, but this this place really emphasizes accuracy more than anything else. Fairways are wider than tour average, but but like I mentioned, uh there’s a lot of bunkering that really um forces you to be accurate. It squeezes you. It does. Yeah. And it’s it’s again, it’s it’s a second shot course. We talk a lot about that, but you I almost wish Scotty was here. Honestly, it would be fun to watch him plot his way around this place. I think it’d be cool to watch like a um foreshadowing of him versus Rory. Just get a get a test run. Yeah. Um, what else do I know about this place? Uh, greens are above average. Continuing with the, uh, above average everything here. Uh, they are very firm and fast. So, you do, um, you do run into some trouble with these greens, especially if you’re out of position. You’ve got to, you’ve got to have good shot shaping. You’ve got to be able to spin the ball and stop it. Which kind of ties into my next point, which I honestly think without having much to go on here, I think the biggest secret is going to be uh, managing your your second shot lie. like being in position, not being in the fescue. Uh you don’t want to be catching flyers out of the fescue. The ball’s going to sit up. Uh it’s just it’s not going to be a good scene if you’re missing fairways. Um I’ll let Bo talk about this a little bit because he already hit on it, but um uh there are some uh callouts to some notoriously massive difficult courses with Beth Paige and Wingedfoot. This is nothing like those in my opinion. It’s like if those two had a baby and they really didn’t love the baby that much. Yeah, it’s, you know, tilling I I think uh notoriously those are those are two of the most difficult challenging courses around. Um and you got to respect the design that goes into those. I uh I know I know he personally was a big fan of this place. Um I uh I think it pales in comparison to some of his better works. It’s the stark contrast between Winged Foot, Beth Paige Black, and this one, The Cricut Club. in Philly. This is uh this golf course. Flower Town. Yeah, Flower Town, PA. That’s the most Amish thing I’ve ever heard in my life. No offense to the Amish. It’s just comical that there’s a place called Flowertown, PA outside Philly, and they have a very fancy cricket club with the very fancy Tilling Hats designed golf course. Uh it’s it’s it’s crazy. And it’s it’s kind of like a money grab to me. It’s like it’s like what do we need? another no cut signature event that’s got a huge $20 million purse. It just seems to me that they did a poor job of replacing Quail Hollow Wells Fargo week because that was a special event. And just because we get Quail Hollow next week doesn’t mean we don’t still miss a good challenging course like Quail Hollow this week uh for this tournament. Uh I think these guys are going to light this place on fire. I tend to agree with you. I mean, it’s had a redesign and they haven’t had an event on it since. So, I it’s hard to it’s hard to say. Um I think that there is trouble. Like I said, some of the guys that struggle with accuracy, I think are going to have a rough time here. Um yeah, if you’re out of position on approach, especially shortside yourself on this golf course, it’s not going to end well. But I just Yeah, I don’t I don’t see this being much of a challenge. I the what what maybe you can hope for is that some other guys get a get a shot here and that Rory and Colin and Xander um JT like some of these guys are really treating this as a tuneup. Um otherwise I think it’s going to be one of the favorites and I don’t think it’s going to be particularly close. Well, what do you say we dive in and bet on some golf, Connor? I love the sound of that. I love it for you. I love it for me. Let’s do it. All right, DraftKings Sportsbook updated odds. Conor, as of right now, Monday night, Connor, some guy named Rory’s in this field. The other guy named Scotty’s not in this field. We have a lot of great names other than Scotty here. It is a signature event after all. Uh, where does your card start? I mean, obviously with Rory, but are you interested in other members of the top of this board? So, I am interested in Rory, but only because like Oh my goodness. I just want to say I just want to say I can see I can see this being kind of a kind of a tuneup fine-tuning event for Rory. There’s a lot of or a look ahead thing ahead effect is real. There’s a lot of short approach shots here and though he’s been like marketkedly improved in that regard, like I think that’s going to be his focus this week. Pebble Beach especially. So, so I, you know, I think I could see Rory just just coming out and burning burning the field, no problem. Or I could see him coming out and just kind of putts around for four days, you know. So, I’m definitely going to be there plus 450 in this field seems like a actual decent value for the type of season Rory’s having. So, uh, I will have that. But getting to the point, um, other guys I like up there, um, I’ve got a lot of interest in Colin Morawa and I got a lot of interest in JT. Um, those are the two that I’m My guy JT, our guy JT. Yeah, it’s about Justin Thomas, friend of the show. Love to have you on one day. One day. Uh, that’s where I start my card. I was tempted. I I ended up getting JT earlier today at 20 to1, but he is down to 18 to1. That’s still a good value because this course is made for a player like Justin Thomas. It’s a guy who can go low. I mean, how many Connor, how many course records does this guy have on tour? It’s crazy. Uh, can he go low? Yeah, it’s JT. He goes lower than anybody more often than anybody. And can he also pinpoint short iron approach and wedge approach shots? Yes, that’s JT’s forte. That always has been JT’s forte. His struggles off the tea are not amplified on a golf course like this because driver is not going to be his hand very often. So that’s that’s for me it was either him or Ludvig Oberg because I can see Oberg getting hot enough to go low here even if it doesn’t necessarily match his skill set as well. This guy is just a threat and I think the scoring is going to be premium this week. So I’m going to take my shots on the guys who can crack 30 under par which is where I think it’s going to be. and Ludvig Goldberg was tempting, but JT is ultimately going to get more of my investment uh at the top of the card knowing that I’d love to see Rory win here. I just think he’s going to be looking ahead to next week more than anybody else in this field. Yeah, with with JT, I mean, there’s nobody better from 150 in right now on tour. Zero people. And then you start getting into the longer uh approach buckets and he’s been he’s been great there, too. He’s number four in the field. What I was surprised about looking at his stats this week is he’s number 11 in putting and like the eye test to me I got him at ninth in putting which like I think I think the putter has gotten really good over the course of maybe the last month or so but like it started out pretty rocky so to have him rating out that well in this field with some really good putters. I mean there’s some Yeah, very stout putters in this field. Best of the best right in here. Yeah. So um JT’s form is fantastic. Um I see no reason especially if you got him at 20 that’s even better. I got him at the 18 number and I feel really good about that. Um he is number one in this field and birdies are better gained. That seems good. Yeah. And to your point like the the wider the wider fairways um should help mitigate some of that driver stuff but like honestly the driver’s actually been decent. I mean he’s still losing strokes off the tea week on week but it’s been better. Um and then the my other guy Morawa like so when you talk about Ta Green play and approach play. Um Morawa is still number one in uh T Green and number two in overall approach. He’s really good from that 150 to 125 range. Uh he rates out 15th there. Doesn’t miss a whole lot of fairways. So you know the thing you got to worry about with Color Orca is um um or he doesn’t miss a lot of greens rather. I’m sorry. Um fairways. Holy cow. The illness is kicking in. Uh the thing you got to worry about I’m seeing triple the uh is his putter. It’s always his putter and he’s 44th in this field of 72. So that’s not great. Um that’s rough. But I think I think he can I have him at 56. Yeah. The thing with Morawa though is like that the rest of his game is just so darn good that like if we could just get a flat putting week and we say this all the time. Um His around the green game is bad, too. It’s 50th. But like you said, everything else is fifth top five. Like top five ball striking, birdies, everything else you want. It’s like if this guy’s on, he could do it. If he’s off, he’s not going to do it at all. He’s going to be he’s going to be floundering at the bottom of this pack. He’s had some really good runs in some of those metrics, you know, over the course of this season. He’s had some good finishes. Um slipped a little at RBC Heritage. um had a really bad around the green game and specifically a really bad putting week. So yeah, I like I like this spot for him to bounce back a little bit. So I shudder to think, but I do want to pander to our Canadian fans out there, especially Royal Slade. Um I got a hit. There was a hit at number two in my in my model here, this first run model on Cory Connors. It makes sense. Birdie making machine, premium ball striker, uh much like Morawa. absolutely no short game. Uh but if he’s on with his irons like he is prone to be on a golf course like this, we’re we’re in Cory Connor’s territory. Are we not 30 to1? That seems decent. Yeah, he popped top 10 for me. I 30 to1 to be honest. My money is going to Henley. But um Oh, yes. Another valuable pick in these 7100 yard golf courses. Henley rises quickly, 100%. But to talk about Corey Connors, yeah, is TA Green has been awesome lately. Uh, hits darn near every fairway, every green. That uh that shorter wedge proximity he’s super super good at. He’s always in or around the top 10. So, I like it. I mean, he does in transparency. I mean, at least in my modeling, he rates out like almost neck andneck with Morawa for uh putting it around the green. So, yep. Not good. But I’m gonna play with Mora. Just hold our nose and pray they don’t have to use their short game. Exactly. Then we can get there. We can get there. Put the beer goggles on and pray that they have a great iron ball striking week. It could happen. But I think I feel a lot more confidently at at that 30 to1 number in Russell Enley. I he rs out number one in my model overall. Like you said, shorter course like this. Um, you know, he’s fourth in mine, so I’m not going to squabble with you on it. No, the only thing I worry about with Henley, just in transparency, and 30 to1’s probably reflective of it, is I I don’t know that he has the ability to hit that 28 to 30 number like Yeah, he is 25th is his worst stat in my model is 25th and birdies are better. But boy, I’ll tell you what, just well-rounded game all season long. Henley, no weaknesses. No weaknesses. Yeah, he’s I I feel very confident in him. I think I’ll probably shop around and try and get like a top 10. I think I think that’s definitely well within the range of outcomes. Well, after that bracket, I really drop down. Uh do you have anybody kind of in between? Because I’m not I don’t have anybody till 60 to1. Do you have anybody in that kind of mid-range? Yeah, I’ve got two. I in transparency, I don’t have a big card this week. I don’t know enough about the course or what it’s going to look like to really beat. I’m doing the same exact thing. Connor, you’re a smart guy or we’re both really dumb. But uh I got I do have some interest in Seph Straa uh popping for uh number one in stroke scan approach uh number seven in proximity from 125 to 150 and number five in Ta Green. So um you know Stro is another guy not you went to the Morawa Connor’s school of short game. If you’re seeing a little bit of a trend on my betting card it’s upside approach specialist. Yeah, approach specialists who we hope don’t have to chip too often. Um, but Straa at 40 to1 I think when you look at the people that are a little shorter than him at that 30 to1 number and we just hit on two of them. Straa can score uh Oh yeah. 11th. So I I the 40 number seems like a decent value on him. And then uh Sam Burns. So I wrote up Sam Burns last week and I was early to the party on Burns and I’m going to keep riding it. He uh he did he uh finished uh tied for fifth last week. And all the same stuff I liked about Sam Burns last week. I continue to like here is his he’s number one in the field right now for putting. It’s somebody that we know can get very creative and very hot with shorter irons. Um his overall approach game hasn’t been great this season, but that shorter range is where he’s really like stepped up and and shown an ability to to stay with the field. The other thing I like about uh Sam Burns that some of the other guys we’ve talked about so far don’t have is Sam Burns is really good out of the sand. Like Sam Burns rates out in the top 20 in this field for getting up and down out of He’s number four in short game for me and number one in putting. So the complete antithesis of the the previous group of guys that you were on. But also, I’m a big fan because Sam Burns, by virtue of his amazing short game and putting makes a lot of birdies. He does. And here’s something that I typically don’t get to say about Sam Burns either, but he’s gain strokes off the tea in his last three starts. And so, love to hear it. So, the trend the trend is there. He’s relatively flat on overall approach, which for Sam Burns is actually a good number. Great. That’s so great for him. It’s it’s like Scotty putting just just don’t be terrible on approach please Sammy Burns. The other thing too Sam Burns in these no cut events man like he’ll have he’ll have that fire round one one of the four days he will have a go low type of round and you just hope that he you know keeps up with the pack the rest of the time he’s there and you know you got a recipe to win. So 50 to1 seems pretty good on him. I’m going to ride the hottest of hot Mr. Andrew Novak. I got him at 70 to1 earlier today. He’s already slipped to 60 to1. He’s hot. He’s He’s like Hansel. Andrew Novak is so hot right now. So hot right now. And this dude is dialed in. Every facet of his game is rocking right now. Uh this is the kind of place where we get to see the Andrew Novak we saw a couple weeks ago at the Zurich with with his co-ch champion. Uh the week before that was just a a stripe show from Novak, very nearly stealing that tournament uh at the end in the playoff. Uh I’m excited. This is uh this is the kind of this is the kind of uh leverage that you get on the hottest golfer in this field. Like you can say Rory’s hotter because he won the Masters, but Novak is playing a continued month of top five in the world golf. Uh 60 to1 even. Yeah, I got I’m thrilled to have him 70, but 60 even is is still amazing leverage for a guy that’s got so much upside. Well, you know, you don’t have to sell me on Novak. I love Novak. I’m coming around to him. He’s he’s he’s getting my fandom because I mean he’s a good old boy from South Carolina. He just goes out there and plays the game the right way. He’s just he’s exactly what I like to watch where he’s out there all ho h but the dude’s got game. Yeah, dude. He’s got a crazy good iron game, crazy good short game. He plays fast. Um he’s he’s cool and collect for the most part. Um you know, and you look at what he’s done. I mean, third at the Bolero, second at RBC. uh winning at the Zurich. So, it’s just, you know, yeah, he’s he’s rising on my board overall of people I like to root for. Uh and 70 to1 is amazing. Uh I also wanted a piece of Osha Batia because of the style of golf course. And again, this is a guy who when he’s hot goes lower than anybody else. He’s a 61 or 62 waiting to happen on a golf course like this where you’re going to get a lot of wedges on approach. And I can’t think of anybody in this range or even a little shorter that have a better wedge game on approach than Ashe Batia. And I got him at 75. He’s already down to 70 to one. I’m again thrilled to get one of the guys I pictured winning this tournament at such a great line. So, what say you on those two uh mid-range picks there? So, I I like I like Batia. I’m not I’m He’s probably not going to make my card and and just because I think I think the consistency is the struggle with him. And I think in in this event, he’s going to have to be consistent. Like, he can he has a good um around the green game. He’s got a good like creative iron game. His putter has actually been really good lately. He’s fourth in the field over the last 36. I mean, so there’s a lot to like about him, but it just always seems to me like he has that one just stinker of a round where you’re just like, man, if he could have kept it together four days, what could have been? Um, and so yeah, I just don’t know. He’s he’s another guy that I feel is like firmly in that bucket of like, can he go 28, 29, 30? And I don’t I don’t know if he can. I don’t know if he can put together four days. All right. Anybody else? Are are you How How low are you going? This field is pretty versatile actually. Um there’s a couple of guys that I mean I just I I haven’t pulled the trigger on but I have an interest in just random. Uh like Willie Z. Um I I have some interest in him at 70 to1. Um we’ve been on Jacob Bridgeman. I don’t know if it’s time to quit him yet or not, but 90 to1 seems like a really good number on him. number seven in my model. Yeah. So, I think he’s probably the one that most likely finds his way onto the card here over the next day or so. Um, but then I get into like I have two guys uh getting down here actually. Well, actually three. I’ve got one more that’s a may make it on the card. Um, but the first one’s Tom Hogi. Um, and Oh, here we go. There we go. Anybody who’s ever watched this show over the course of the last five or six years knows that Tom Hogi and I have a brutal love. Pebble Beach Whisperer. Uh but on a course like this uh where approach and uh approach and short game are important, uh this is this is another type of deal that sets up really well for Tom Hokei. and at plus 110 for a guy that uh really has some stellar approach metrics. Um despite being relatively quiet this year, I mean, he’s number 11th in this field still. Um you know, I love him in DFS. You’re down there at $6,700 for Tom Hogi who and you get four days of Tom Hogi. Um putter’s good. He’s 24th in the field. He’s great out of the sand. He’s 19th in the field. And then, you know, again, I mentioned it, his iron play, his approach play overall is good. And that 125 to 150 bucket is one of his better better ranges. So, you’re not going to get a lot of length from uh Mr. Hogi. Um no, but you you can get some good iron play out of him. And the putter is steadfast enough. So, the putter has been good for Hogi this season. He’s number six in my model in putting amazingly uh where he’s still struggled as around the green. So if his iron game isn’t sharp, uh which usually happens on longer golf courses, uh we see him shine usually on these length of like Pebble Beach and uh and the like that Sony opens the the shorter golf courses where Tom Hog’s uh wedge game can can apply here. A lot like Ash Batia, but maybe a little bit less volatile. He’s he’s more steady than Oshay is. I just think Ash has a little bit more flare to him. like I can win this tournament any week and Hogi’s like every three years at one of these tournaments that you’ll flip a coin for I’m gonna win or push top five. I mean that’s that’s Tom Hogi in a nutshell. Yeah. And then I then I whine and complain about him for a month or two every single time. We’ve been going through this for years. It’s uh it’s not a good scene when I bet Tom Hogi and the following week’s never good. Poor guy. I’m going to take a guy who has done very good work the last few weeks, months, this whole season. Uh the other Hoygard twin, Raasmus, who last year we we felt Nikolai was the better of the two and it’s completely flipped in my opinion. Raasmus is playing much better golf. uh more of a allaround game than his brother. Uh Raasmas Hoygard going off at 110 to1. I got him early and 110 to1 for as well as this guy’s dialed in and going low. I like Raasmasy Guard and he’s he’s still at 100 to1 on DraftKings. So, uh, that’s a that’s a nice $5, let it flyer, uh, type of bet that I can really dig because absolutely Rasmus Hoygard could win this thing. No argument for me. And, and I, you know, I I slash, we have been saying for weeks and weeks and weeks that Rasmus is the better Hoygard. So yeah, it’s it’s been proven this season and it might change again because they’re so damn similar, but it’s uh right now right now it’s the year of Raasmus. Raasmus. Um my my guy that I’m a little iffy on, but the form is coming around is Michael Thor Bjornson at plus 120. I I just I wish Carl Phillips was in this field. Me too. He’s like fourth alternate, but he would be perfect for this course. Thor Bj Bjornson uh wedge approach is shaky at best. Uh he’s amazing off the tea, but this kind of course might eat him alive. What What say you? And other than birdie making, which he obviously can do. Yeah. Well, the thing I like about him is again 120 to one. First off, that’s pretty nice. That is appealing. can rack up birdies like nobody’s business. Yeah. Um but last week uh at the Byron Nelson, he actually had his first week and uh six starts where he gained on approach. Um and we’ve kind of been waiting for him to gain on approach. We need him to gain on approach. 100% we do because to your point, the off the tea game is actually pretty good. Um that he’s relatively accurate for as long as he is. Um and he’s long. he’s very long and so you know we’re not we’re not losing off the tea ever really. Um so we just need the approach to come along a little bit and then the other piece that actually for the first time was basically flat uh which for him is good uh was his putter. His putter was he didn’t he lost.3 of a stroke. So basically flat putter per performance which has been the other like kind of critical piece with him is we know the off the tea is great and we just need that approach to be you know serviceable. We need the putter to be serviceable and he’ll gain plenty uh plenty on his way to the green. So, um I I like it at 120. I think I think it’s taken him a lot longer to get to where we wanted him to be, but I think he’s I think he’s coming around. So So I’m looking at this field and I’m thinking I would be crazy not to take a shot on one of the longer players in this field because it’s 80 men, no cut. Anybody in this field could theoretically win this tournament even with Rory here, right? Like this is what they want is for us to glue our eyes to the TV so they can get their big truest money at the sponsorship deal. And they’re going to make us watch a birdie fest with 80 guys going ballistic on this poor Cricut Club golf course. So I’m gonna go down to Brian Campbell at 250 to one and let a$150 roll. Let’s Let’s do $420. You know, that’s my last guy, too. Yeah. Like, why not? That’s That’s great. I didn’t think there was any way that you were going to be on Brian Campbell. I thought I was going to come in swinging at 250 to one and you’re going to be like, I’ve seen him do it. We’ve seen Brian Campbell do this. This is a Brian Campbell bell course. Oh my god. And he can’t he can’t miss the cut, Connor. He can’t hurt us this week. Well, and he’s like, you have nothing to lose but $4.20. That’s nice. And if you think back to the Mexico Open, I mean, the guy the guy when he’s hot with the short irons is a wizard. Um, he can get the putter going. He’s not going to be pen as penalized for the off the tea game this week. Like even if he’s in the rough, like this fescue is manageable. Like I and yeah, he’s a short hitter, shortest on tour, but everything Ruff is like a good therapist. It’s very supportive. Well, I like that. I like him teed up a little from the longer distances if he misses the fairway. Like this this place makes a ton of sense for Brian Campbell. And to your point, we just watched him do it in Mexico. Like we we should have been all over him then. That course set up almost perfectly for what he does. This course, at least on paper, um, seems like it would be a great fit. It seems like incredibly long odds for a guy that won on tour this year. Well, Connor, what do you say we get to the hat? El Sombrero Elero. Out of the 72 players in this field, the hat has wisely chosen number 42 in your model. Oh my goodness. Oh, scrolling scrolling. Adam Scott, that’s not bad. My guy My guy I think I would have been supportive on this this track if it was last year, but it’s Lucas Glover, dude. And Lucas Glover actually pops for me. Lucas Glover in my model is he’s 42nd in mine obviously, but it’s because of birdie making. 22nd in this field and birdie making is his top stat. He’s 14th in mine. And uh yeah, that the putting the putting is not great, but we know that. We know that. That’s that’s what you get with Lucas Glover. No, I’m I’m If nothing else, I’m excited to see this this course. I think Justin Thomas is if it’s if it’s not Rory just continuing to run all over these role. Yeah, I I I want it to be JT. I I think JT gets it done. I think so, too. I He’s He’s as hot as Rory. It’s uh it’s fresh. Like JT’s riding high. This is the B the most confident we’ve seen him in years. Number one in Bird’s Game, number one in Short Iron Approach, top 10 everywhere else. It makes sense. I think JT is gonna take this at 29 under par. Yeah. I I think I I’m I’m probably a little bit higher. Like I’d say it’s I I think it’s probably more like in that 27 28 range. Um still very favorable. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think they ripped this place apart. All right. Next week we get Quail Hollow. We get the PGA Championship. Oh yeah. Looking ahead with the dome. Yes. Join us next week. This has been the 19th hole live as always on In between Media.
