Betting tips and picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson!
Hello everybody. Welcome to Rake the Take, a golf bitting podcast hosted by me, Chris Lewis. And this week we’re going to be talking about the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which takes place at TPC Craig Ranch in the great state of Texas. This is an approximately 7,300 yard par 71 golf course. Um, I definitely have to say that this is one of the easiest tests on the PGA Tour. Um, you know, if you really want to be able to contend at this event, you’re going to have to create and score plenty of opportunities. Um, overall, it’s pretty average in terms of its length. So, distance is not a huge predictor this week, whether or not you’re short or long off the tea. You know, I think both types of players can really attack this course. Um, and the rough is also really not that penal as well. So, missing the fairways will not really preclude anyone from scoring this week. Um, you know, there are some fairway bunkers that are difficult to approach from approach the greens from if you miss the fairway, but outside of that, I mean, this course is really simple to attack. So, having some excellent irons and wedges is going to be really important this week. Um, just to be able to maximize your rounds. Um, round the greens, there’s really not that much trouble outside of a few tricky bunkers. Um, so yeah, just avoiding bogeies is going to be critical this week because there’s going to be so many birdies. Um, you don’t want to set yourself back. A bogey will be uh definitely twice as penal this week than in normal weeks just because most people aren’t going to be making them on these holes. Um, and on the ping greens, um, they’re prime for scoring as you know, as long as you’re able to create chances, you should be able to score. Um, unless you’re just like abhorenttly bad at putting, but you know, we bet those guys anyway. Uh, I’m just joking. But, but yeah, um, let’s just kind of get into the card this week. It’s a pretty small card this week. Um, you know, I’m not trying to stretch myself too thin at an event like this, especially when you have a player as great as Scotty Sheffler leading the odds board at plus 275. I mean, geez, that is just such a low number. Um, you know, I’m not going to be on there this week. Um, but, you know, hopefully I can get a one of these long shots that randomly wins in an event uh that he’s in. Kind of like, you know, a Davis Riley type of guy. Um, or even Steven Joerger when he won the Houston Open last year. But yeah, um, Taylor Moore, he’s the first guy on my card this week. Um, you know, he’s been quietly having a very solid season on the PGA Tour this year. um he hasn’t had very many opportunities of contention, but the former Valbar winner has really done some good at the American Express and the WM Phoenix Open this year where he had two top 10 finishes. Um the main key for him is just, you know, the lack of mis cuts. He’s been making a lot of cuts, you know, putting up some decent results, maybe not great results. Um but I think the big thing for him is that his driving’s been great. He’s in the 84th percentile on driving. Um, mainly because of he’s, you know, pretty, he hits it pretty far off the tea, like in the 80th percentile. Um, and not to mention his short game has also been very good where he yanks in the 84th percentile around the greens in the 79th percentile in putting. Um, you know, where he’s been average is with his approach play, which that ranks in the 55th percentile. So, not it’s not either terrible nor is it great. Um but you know at this week you know I think players that maybe struggle with their approach play could do better just because these greens you know are pretty large like like many players are going to be making greens in regulation so you can kind of make putts from anywhere. Um but you know overall like ideally yeah you want to be hitting it close so you can create as many easy chances as you can. Um but I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for him this week. He’s played well here in the past. Um the only time he’s played well here was that uh he finished tied for 32nd in 2022 and he gained strokes in all three TD Green categories. Um and he just kind of had a bad week putting. So I think that’s a really encouraging sign for me because he typically is a great putter. Um and I think that you know I think he has a really good chance at contending this week. Um, I like his odds at plus six um at 60 to1 at plus 6,000 and I think he’s a good bet for top five. I got that at plus,000 and you know I have three units on him to finish in the top 40 at plus 105. I’m also in the top 10 and top 20, you know, like I usually am for all these guys, but um but yeah, no, I think Taylor Moore is really going to be a good bet this week, you know, but you don’t have to bet the top 20 and top 10 if you’re trying to limit your exposure this week. I definitely recommend the top five. The outright in the top 40 though for sure. Um yeah, let’s keep it going. We got Doug Gim, the Gim Reaper. He’s back on our card after, you know, kind of disappointing at the Congress Classic a couple months ago. He was in contention for us and he had really such an amazing approach week. If he just had a better week putting, he probably would have won that week. Um, so it was definitely very disappointing that he he missed the ball on that one. Um, but I still have major confidence in his game from T Green. Um, you know, since then he’s had some bad results here and there, but it’s really all just kind of because of the putting. The putting has just been so bad. He’s been in the sixth percentile in putting. Um, but T Green, like I said, he’s been great. 85th percentile in accuracy off the tea. He’s an excellent approach player in the 87th percentile and decent around the greens at the 61st percentile. Um he’s played well here before with a tie tie 19th finish. Um and then you know he’s had two miscuts but um I still think that the T19 shows that he can do well here. Um overall he’s also done well at other birdie fests like contending at the Shriner Children’s Open in the fall finishing second place there you know despite his bad putting and you know and I think at 125 to1 Gim offers a lot of value given that he’s already contended this season in a much stronger field um you know and I think he’s a good bet for placements as well just across the board um for yeah Tkumi Tkumi Kaya uh the eighttime Japanese tour winner Tumi Tkumi Kaya, you know, he’s been he’s has not been able to create the same magic on the PGA Tour now that he’s a full-time member, you know, and it’s a bit weird that he hasn’t been able to do that, you know, because of his his acumen as a player, but uh you know, his approach play has been bad in the shot league events that we have. Um, you know, it’s a small sample size overall, relatively. Um, but in these events also, his accuracy off the tea has been great around the green game and putting have been very decent as well. You know, and at the Zurich last week, he gained strokes in all categories, helping Rio Hisatsune finish um, T18th for the team event. You know, maybe a good week at New Orleans, you know, will help spark some inspiration for him to be able to retain his PGA Tour cards this year. Um, you know, given it’s a weak field, I think betting Kaya at 2011 is a smart long shot play. You know, he’s an eight-time winner. So, I think him being in contention, um, is not, you know, uh, that big of an ask. And I think he would do well in that situation if given the chance. Um, given that he has win equity overseas. Um, obviously winning on the PGA Tour is a different animal. Um but you know I do think he has um a good game overall and I think you know despite the fact that his approach play hasn’t been good on the PGA Tour um you know maybe that’s a skill set that um could really kind of become a lot more consistent this week given that these are easier greens to make in regulation and that um maybe he can kind of just create some more scoring opportunities that way. Um but yeah 200 to one and with the placements I think he’s a good bet just kind of across the board. Um, and I’m not sure if I I think I missed this as well, but yeah, you know, again, I’m also on his placements as well. Just wanted to make sure I said that. Um, yeah, we got two more guys this week. Grayson Sig, it’s been an up and down year for him. Um, after an excellent start to 2025 where he had a team ninth finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s on a bit of a stretch of lackluster play with a lot of miscuts recently. But I think he’s another player that could have been that could benefit from having a good week last week at the Zurich Classic. Um even though um you know his duo missed the cut uh he gained strokes in all all four categories and he had a you know which could signify that he may have found something. He’s a good approach player ranking in the 79th percentile. He’s accurate off the tee ranking 81st percentile around the greens. He’s very solid ranking in the 61st percentile, you know, and really where he struggles is with his putting where he’s in the 16th percentile and he’s TBC Craig Ranch even hasn’t really been that great of a course for him. He’s missed the cut here in all three of his starts. However, I still believe he could have a good week this week because of his skill sets, you know, and you know, for from Tina Green, there’s really a lot to like about his game. And at 250 to1, it’s a good long shot bet. And I would recommend taking his placements as well. Um, you know, I just feels like that, um, given his acument as a player, he shouldn’t be that deep down the board, um, you know, he’s he’s won two times in the cornfairy tour. Um, so, you know, I just really wouldn’t doubt him. Um, and then finally, we got Tommy Morrison. And Tommy Morrison’s a top 10 amateur in the in the world from the University of Texas. He played at the Open Championship last year, making the cut and finishing T60. Um, which is incredibly impressive for an amateur even though he wasn’t, you know, really deep in the in the leaderboard. Um, he’s very powerful off the tea and with his ball striking. Um, you know, the short game is something that he may need to clean up for this week if he wants to do something special, but you know, I think he’s overall a very high caliber talent and we’ve seen plenty of college players do all on the PGA tour recently. So 400 to1, I don’t see why Morrison cannot be another one of those guys. Um I think he’s a good bet across the board with placements as well. So yeah, really that’s it this week. Um just to kind of review, I got Taylor Moore at 60 to1. Um and with the placements, Doug Gim at 125 to1. Um Tumi Kaya at uh 200 to one. um Grayson Sig at 250 to1 and Tommy Morrison at 400 to1. So yeah, no uh thank you for listening and best of luck if you tail any of these plays.
