All right, I think we’re good to go. What’s going on, guys? We’re back again, another week with Green Means Go here at uh at Wolf Sports previewing the weekend golf tournament. Hey, maybe not as much excitement um as many people have going into the Masters weekend, but nonetheless, I think uh you know, there’s obviously there’s still money to be made, right? There is still there’s still um cash on the table. So, that’s what we are. We’re going to run through some information, preview this tournament, try to help you uh steer you in that direction, right? Um Green Means Go here again today. What’s going on, man? How excited are you for the RBC Heritage? I’m hoping that last week’s fireworks will pull more people into the sport of golf. I think there were a lot of casual viewers who watched the final five, six holes unfold at the Masters. And I know the RBC heritage is not normally something that pulls a lot of attention, but I’m I’m hoping that we can use the momentum of the Masters to get people interested in the RBC RBC heritage. So, I’m excited. I’m always excited for golf um signature event this weekend, which means slightly smaller pool of players, more money, more FedEx Cup points. So, it’s still a good uh good course at Harbortown. Um, so I would encourage anyone who was excited about the Masters and may not call themselves a golf fan to tune in to this one because I think it could be equally as entertaining. Yeah. Yeah. No doubt. Um, but I guess before we get too deep into this, should we do a little quick recap on master stuff from last week? Yeah, we can do a quick recap. Uh, and I’ve color coded this and and I’ve not given you the code to the colors. So, I’ll I’ll explain that. I posted this on Twitter and somebody called me out about the highlighters that I did not clarify what they meant. Um, so that’s on me. Yellow means they were top 20. So, eight of the 22 players listed here, the model found top 20. The three that were blue were 21st. So, I kind of want to skew the data a little bit and plug them in. Say that over half of the guys on here, or I guess exactly half were in the top 21. Five of the 22 missed the cut. And then at the top, the model loved Rory and Rory ended up winning. Scotty didn’t do too bad. Xander uh found his way eventually. Um and then Sunjm here, the sixth on there at the longest odds of 110 to one. the model just absolutely loved him for some reason. We couldn’t necessarily figure it out and he got fifth. So, it feels pretty good to have the model per perform in the way it did and we’ll run it back this week and see what kind of options it gives us. Yeah, absolutely. Um, and yeah, you know, I I can, you know, speaking from, I guess, my, uh, personal endeavors here with, uh, the Masters last week, uh, I think on the top end, we had some guys, right, we nailed it. It was, uh, we had some anchors that dragged us down. Um, unfortunately, I had some late additions. Uh, you know, I will say one thing, one guy who’s not on this sheet that I did, I feel like I was kind of pounding the table a little bit for um Patrick. Yeah. Yeah. I was just saying like, ignore the numbers, ignore the data. Uh, this is Patrick Reed’s uh turf, so you could expect him to deliver and he did. Um, and the guy that I was incessantly um insulting, Bryson, yeah, we were wrong there. We were wrong there. Final group, uh, kind of fell apart on the last day. But all in all, uh, you know, he was on here, so I guess I’ll I’ll take some credit for that, but I didn’t endorse him, so I guess I have to take away all the credit from that. So, uh, yeah, Willie Z is the guy who killed me. Uh, I had him I we didn’t I didn’t even remember talking a ton about him on the stream. He was a guy that I uh decided to make as a late addition into some pools and DFS lineups and stuff and, you know, just he’d never had a bad round. He’d never finished any worse than top 10 in three three times. And, you know, he uh decided to um he really just went out and [ __ ] the bed, you know, to put it pretty bluntly, I guess. But, you know, hey, we move on. Uh, we had a couple live fires I think on Xander that uh helped um, you know, not make it too bad. And, you know, the Patrick Reed stuff, like I said, the Patrick Reed stuff helped uh, put some food on the table there. So, yeah, you know, I guess uh, we can start moving forward into the upcoming um, RBC Heritage. Yeah, let’s talk briefly about that in terms of history here. Par 71. So significantly shorter than what we saw last week at Augusta. It is a signature event as I mentioned which basically means that it’s worth more both monetarily and pointswise in terms of the aggregation towards the FedEx Cup playoffs. Um so people do care about this event. Hideki and Rory I believe are two if I don’t want to say o the only two and be wrong but they may be the only two of the main guys from the field last week who are not in this field looking at three previous years at this event. Um, Scotty won it last year, Fitzpatrick the year prior, Jordan Spe. And, uh, a guy we love to talk about on this show, Patrick Kentlay. Third last year, third the year before, second the year before. So, Kentlay has an eye for this course. He has success here. Interested to see where the model puts him. Outside of that, Spith, you see a top five two out of the last three years. The gala has been in the top five two out of the last two years. So, it’s a it’s a pretty sticky course in terms of if you do well once, you tend to do well, which we saw at Augusta. Um, but it’s it’s a different setup. So, we can talk about what that setup actually entails because like I said, it is almost the opposite in terms of what we saw at Augusta. So, the most important statistic on this course is strokes gained approach. These greens are tiny. They are the smallest greens on tour, which means iron play into the green is going to be the most important statistic. And the least important is driving distance, which we said was a huge thing last week. So, we’ve again flipped it completely around. Distance quite literally does not matter here. one of the least important statistics possible. Um, it’s a short to medium course. I I would call it a short course. Fairways are incredibly narrow, treelined everywhere, lots of dog legs. Um, the way that I’m thinking about this is Scotty could probably break his driver on the first swing and still win this tournament. Now, could he do that at Augusta? Probably not. He couldn’t win it with his driver, but the driver is is is way less important here. Um, it is on the coast, so wind can be a big deal, which again ties into that approach play, being able to not only be accurate on your approach, but adjust for the wind. This is a thinker’s course more than it is a bombers’s paradise. Of the 14 holes that are not par 3s, 11 of them, accuracy is the most important in terms of accuracy versus distance. Hole nine is the one of the three exceptions. Hole nine is a fun one. So if if you want to tune in to this, even if it’s just going to be Sunday, watch for hole nine. It’s a 324 yard par4. Some guys will lay up, but I think most will try to go for the green there. So it’s always fun to watch guys try to drive a par4 in one. But yeah, the bottom line is everything you looked at last week or we talked about last week in terms of statistics that matter, scratch it off because this is uh a different beast at uh Harbortown course history. We good or you want to comment on uh any of any of this stuff? No. Yeah, I just I always find it interesting the contrast going from Augusta to this and like it just kind of shows how um how well-rounded some of the the very top end golfers are, how wellrounded their game is to be able to kind of shift um you know, there’s guys that are obviously course horses, right? But then there’s guys that their game travels and to just kind of like play almost a comp, you know, not a different game, but uh really have a completely different strategy. Um and what works and what doesn’t uh week after week, you know, it’s just I think it just kind of speaks to how impressive some of the the talent level is on the higher end. Agreed. Yeah. And so you’re going to see Scotty, no spoilers, but you’re definitely going to see Scotty on the model pop up. Um he’s a guy who can who can do it all in any course. Um and if anybody that is watching has questions, don’t forget there is a comment section. There is a chat box. We’re happy to clarify anything or answer any questions you may have. This is some course history statistics. These are the players, the rounds they’ve played at this course, and then their total strokes gained at this course. So, Scotty Sheoffller, only eight rounds. I say only because of every player on this list who has gained at least a half a stroke at Harbortown, he has played the least. So, how do you factor that in? Do I think he’s going to go out and gain strokes this week? Yeah, probably. So, it’s it even though it’s the smallest sample size, I would I would still say it’s pretty accurate. Again, Kantlay, we talked about his backto backtoback top five finishes, so you wouldn’t expect him to not be up there. burgers up there. Uh, some guys I have put a little red tea by that I think are interesting. Matt Coocher, if you want to go strictly based on course history, that’s a guy whose price is probably uh, nuts if he’s in the field. Uh, Brian Harmon, same thing. Cory Connors, he’s Go ahead. I was just going to say the thing on Cooer though, like it makes sense because this is a guy that’s not necessarily a bomber, but he is going to he’s like a straight down the middle of the fairway. um consistent guy. So if that’s what you’re saying is the uh let me see his odds the name of the game here um that makes a lot of sense. Yeah. Uh 200 to one on FanDuel. So yeah, if if you want to I know he’s a guy that on these type of courses that are narrow and you know require accuracy uh he a lot of times is a guy that I’ll throw into my DFS lineup because it’s super super cheap but like he’s not going to kill you. he’s very very likely to make the cut. So, um yeah, that I just said that was funny that you know you mentioned Matt Coocher that immediately popped out to me. It’s like, hey, this is a guy usually um really strongly gravitate to on this these type of tracks. Yeah, definitely a DFS or or a top 10 or 20 guy if uh we look at the odds in a little bit. Uh Brian Harmon, I can’t even tell you what he did last week. um if he made the cut or not. He looked okay the first round, first few holes. I mean, he was coming off that win. But again, another guy who doesn’t hit the ball too far, but if he’s putting well and his approach plays good, he’s played 20 rounds here and he’s gained almost a stroke and a half, so he might be worth a look. Cory Connor kind of fell apart on Sunday at the Masters, but he still ended top seven, I think. Russell Henley really fell apart at the Masters. And I said in last week’s video, even though I liked him, his his distance off the tea could be the one thing that hurts him. And I think in some ways that was true. Distance doesn’t matter here, so maybe he can bounce back. And then Sea is another guy who caught my eye. 18 rounds here. Missed the cut last week, did he not? Um or or close to it. Didn’t have a good week recording. I think he did. Yeah. So, um, another guy maybe worth a look. Um, so we can talk just quickly about the model trials that I ran. I ran 10 trials again. Um, so how I do this is I I focus on different weights and metrics for each of the trials. um you know strokes gained, course history, putting uh par three scoring, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoid just you name it, the stats are in there. Um and so I focused just kind of on a feeler just just based on what I know about RBC and the stats that matter. Uh I focused on who is in good form recently. Focused on course history, not only here um but at similar courses. I took five of the most similar courses to this course and um plugged those in. Focused on five key stats approach uh par three scoring short courses um scrambling birdie or better. Um and again you guys most likely don’t care about all these trials but I just want to kind of show you some of the things that that I that I do to build it. I’ll show you the aggregate in a second. Um, so if you want to just screenshot these and you can look and see who appears where and and how often, you can do that. I don’t need to talk through them. This is sort of the aggregated list. That might be a little bit easier. On the left is the main chart that I would really use. On the right are just the guys who out of 10 trials appeared only once. You know, what do you do with that? I if they appear only once, I probably don’t give them much attention just because there was probably some blip in in one of the weights that caused them to shoot on. I’m more looking at guys who appear, you know, five, six, seven, eight, 10 times. Um, which are are these guys right over here. So, um, as you see, there is a player, a score. I’ve aggregated not only their number of appearances, their total score, and then what their average score is, which we talked about last week. Sunjm’s average score was lower, but he appeared six to eight times. So I said, what matters more? More appearances or a higher score? I think in some ways more appearances matter. So again, you see it Sanjay Him has appeared uh appeared six times out of 10, but he didn’t have he didn’t appear too too high on on the model, but I would prefer a six and a 67 over, you know, a four and a 71, a four and a, you know, 79. So again, golf is hard. This is difficult to to model. There’s so much variance. There’s so many things that can happen. Um, but according to what we know about the RBC Heritage, according to what we know about Harbortown, according to the stats that that have historically mattered here, this is the list. Um, so what I thought we could do, if you didn’t mind, Zach, is I did not fill this out. Normally I have been. So I thought if you wanted to I think and and and people in the chat could chime in uh just walk through this and we can kind of build our own betting card as we go, see what we like, talk through some of these guys in specifics rather than me just coming in here and saying this is this is what I’m betting. Um so if we want to do that, this is this is the data I have. So, we can we can look through these. I just want to know that somebody’s in here. I mean, good grief. Throw a throw an emoji. Throw something in here. Yeah. Maybe you’re our uh our guys aren’t gunning for the mod position anymore, you know? Yeah. I mean, are there are there other shows right now that are that that are making the cake? Are there are there is there a boxing m a boxing match today that I wasn’t aware of? What’s what is happening? Yeah, maybe another um you know, many people are watching uh the other RBC Heritage streams, right? Okay. Well, they can watch it on the rerun. Um I know you’re not a Scotty guy at low numbers. you uh you interested at all in Scotty here? Not particularly, do you know? And it’s not it has nothing to do with like I mean as we’ve covered before has nothing to do with like doubting his ability or like it’s not fading him. It’s just a he can’t win every single tournament and you know and true. Can he win this one at four to one? Yeah, sure he can. Um, he could have won the Masters, too, you know, but I look, I’m not going to like pat myself on the back and be like, “Hey, I said he wasn’t going to win and he didn’t because obviously much greater odds that he’s not going to win than he would.” But oh, and you know, it’s not like they really offer a no market on um, right? Upper cash, welcome. Yes. Here’s what I’m going to say. I’m gonna give it a yellow. at four to one. I need a C5 or better to really like get me to That’s fair. Yeah, I’m gonna give it a yellow because, you know, defending the title, I I just It’s hard for me. It’s hard for me to not have him. But, but I think you’re right. The number is a little slim. Okay, Colin. What’s Colin sitting at? 12. Yeah. What’s going on with him? What What’s the There was some weird He made some strange comments, I feel like, and it was just it kind of like steered me off of him. Um, you’re getting the personal You’re like me with with Bryce. Well, no, it I I honestly I to be honest, I don’t even remember what he said. I don’t even remember what the comments were about. I just remember there were some weird comments and it just if I need an a reason to like not be on a guy or like talk myself out of him, it’s like all right, well, we’re not doing this, you know? Sure. Yeah. I see a lot of people on him. Um I just the putting scares me. Yeah. I just feel like he he’s always there, but the putting just never fully comes around. I I don’t think I’d be on any of these at 12 to one. Yeah. Um I mean outright. And then yeah, I I don’t think his numbers here are going to be worth it there. So, uh, what about Xander? I mean, you you already know that I’m uh I’m buying on Xander. I’m hoping to see maybe a 20 here. I haven’t uh It’s 14. Yeah, it’s a little low, but um little low. Yeah. Yeah. You take it at 20 to1. Oh, I mean, I was on him to win the Masters at 22 to1. Um Okay. um took after the first round I took some live like top tens and you know he uh look Sanders my guy I just feel like he is consistently not priced. When did he end up last week? 21st I think we said. I think he was 21st. Yeah because that’s what um yeah because he was on the list and I think he was one of the blue guys that that just barely missed the top 20. Yeah. It’s like I just think there’s honestly more value in Scotty at 4 to1 than Xander at 14 to1. I I think I don’t know. I’ll I’ll pass. He finished eighth at August. Oh, Xander finished. Yeah. I I was like I know that he got inside the top 10. Yeah. Okay. Um H and it’s like a quiet eight, right? like he he finished with the same um you know he yeah he was five under. So okay let’s do this. I keep doing that. Let’s let’s give him a let’s give him a red. Let’s give him like a like a maybe. Yeah. 14 to1. We’ll give him a h. We can maybe make the argument. All right. Tommy Fleetwood. Any feelings there? Give me a price. I’m just trying to Here’s the thing. I’m just trying to think when was his last win. um 2008. I don’t know. I mean, and like look, we’re we’re obviously talking about like objective um judging metrics here, but it’s like when you’re kind of an always the bridesmaid, never the bride type guy, like that’s that’s a top 20, top 10 guy for me. That’s not an outright ticket. So 33 to1 and and he’s shown up fourth in terms of what the model likes I believe. What is it nine times? I think I have him and to be honest yeah I do in my like just shoot from the hip snap judgment like let me throw together a quick Yeah he popped up because like I said I I always try to do that with a DFS lineup is the first one I do I just run through it. I click guys. I don’t, you know, I might look at their their player card. What’s his top 10? Do you have DraftKings open or Yeah, I do. But he made my first cut lineup. Like the first lineup I threw together, he was in there. So, okay. Um, let’s see. Give me Shane and Tommy this week. I mean, he makes the call. Yeah. So, biased Brit. You like Tommy Fleetwood, Jay? Jay is on Tommy 33 to1. He likes the number, but he’s a bi. He’s a bias Brit. I was I was going to say that before I even read that. I honestly I I before I even read that he uh selfidentified as a bias sprit, I was going to say those exact words. What’s what’s what’s his top top Let’s see some top 10 stuff. If you can get top 10 at plus 200, two 250 including ties. I might be interested. I mean, this says DK has plus 275. Caesar’s 275 for top 10. 275. Okay. top 10. Let me let me look let me look at his history here because see 33 to1 feels too long. I’ll be honest. 33 to1 feels like there’s value to be had. Well, yeah, because he doesn’t win. He doesn’t win tournaments. Like that’s I think that that’s being priced in here. The guy doesn’t win. But does the value trickle down to the top top placements, right? Is it is it all is it all aligned? Yeah, it’s like top 10 Tony when Tony Feno would be like top 10 all the time and he just couldn’t win. 21st 62 164 11 5 22 21. Let’s see his history at the RBC. 49 15 10 cut 25. So his past three trips here he’s made the top 20 two out of three. Last year he was 49th lost strokes and approach. Lost five strokes on approach. Lost five strokes on approach and still made the cut. Did it happen on uh it happened the first two days and he Oh, it’s no cut event. That’s also important. I should mention no cut event. Um but he’s gaining strokes approach in six out of his last seven starts. Maybe top maybe top 10 isn’t too bad. 275. I’m going to Here’s what I’m going to do. I was trying to find the last top 10 he had. Um, also I mean he’s he’s had I guess August 1st if Well, I don’t that’s the Olympic. Uh, I wouldn’t even count that. Um, what’s top what’s top uh top 20? Are we I was seeing like plus 105 maybe. Um, granted I need to double check if that includes dead heats or not, but yeah. Okay. So, here let’s let’s do this. Let’s say that a top I don’t know. That’s one thing I’ve noticed DraftKings has has shifted this year is they now you can get it with with Dead Heat or without like they offer both markets. Yeah. Which is nice. I would be okay with a very small confidence top 20 if it’s at plus 100. Yeah. Not I’m not, you know. Okay. All right. Uh Daniel Burgerer sort of our first uh wo our first woe of the of the card here. 55 to one for Daniel Burgerer. He’s fifth on the model. Uh any any thoughts about Daniel Berger as it relates to to anything at all? I think we mentioned him a couple weeks ago. He was he he actually finished 21st at the Masters, 30 Valero. Um at the players he was 20, top 20, Arnold Palmer 15, Cognizant Classic 25. Uh finished second at Waste Management. So, um I know how we he came up when we were discussing him a couple weeks ago, I think, about how, you know, this was a guy that was um I used to love he was like an automatic top 20 bet for me like most tournaments. uh just price value based alone and he had the injury uh issues, right? Where he took some time away. Um yeah, was it injury or back? Maybe back. Yeah. Uh took a year off, took some time away, but he does appear to be um back in good form right now. So top 10 like listen, I’m I cra me crazy. There’s something about this number that I’m thinking maybe we maybe there’s an outright to be had. 55 to one light sprinkle. Yeah, I think there’s value. Uh top 10. Let’s see his history here if you care. 21st, 13th, 3rd, 33rd, 72nd. when he gains strokes on approach. Yeah, he’s he’s he’s been third, 13th, and 21st, so he doesn’t hate the course. And you know, he’s playing well. Is his is his top 10. I wish there was a if if anybody has an odd screen that shows top placements, that would be very helpful. I just can’t find one that that uh has anything. I’ll I’ll hang out on FanDuel if if that’s easier. If you’re on DraftKings if Yeah, I mean what I’m also I have DraftKings up. I’m also using like the Action Network app where like if you click on a guy Oh, it’ll show it’ll show the markets. Now, I don’t know how you know up to the minute those are and as I also said um some might include dead heat, some may not. So, I don’t want to use that as gospel necessarily, but I think it gives us a pretty rough um a general idea of what what to expect here. Burger top 10 is 320 including ties. Do you uh have a feeling any any way about that? I mean, I don’t hate that. I I’ll tell you this. He’s probably going straight into my lineup right now. Um I don’t know who I’m going to pull out, but yeah, we’re taking him out or we’re uh getting him into the DFS card, that’s for sure. Okay. What’s his price? 75 68 83. Oh, okay. So, actually a little bit steeper than I thought, but um yeah, I mean, we’re going to trust the model. We’re going to trust fifth best golfer suited here. Um Russell Henley, let’s move on to him. Uh blew blew it last week. No other way to say it. He was one of the aforementioned anchors that uh really killed me and kind of shot all my cards to hell. Yeah. um from a DFS and pool perspective. He uh really screwed the pooch with the uh with Russell Henley last week. So, he’s got some some splaining to do, some making up maybe perhaps here. Yeah. Uh which I think he he he should and could here. Let me check his his course history. But this I think this this course suits him significantly more than Augusta. So, I would I would be okay with shaking off last week’s performance knowing that it’s it’s not Yeah, he lost a stroke and a half putting his history here. 12th, 19th, 9th, 12th, 19th, and 9th. Wow. Uh did did miss the cut in 2022, I guess, when it was a not a no cut event. So, yeah. I mean the three out of four top 20s fringe top 10s playing the best golf already won this year but at 28 to1 I don’t know if I want him out right do we like a top I don’t know maybe he maybe he needs to uh regroup it yeah okay uh what about Luvik here because if not for that triple bogey on 18 or whatever it was at the last day um would have had a top five finish. Well, and what really bothers me is that after last year I spent I I basically told I remember saying, “Oh, this guy I’m going to take a flyer on him to win the Masters next year.” And I’ve had that thought in my head for a year as this guy was emerging onto the scene as he was kind of a this budding upand cominging uh star in the making it looked like. And uh lo and behold we got to last week and I kind of got a little scared away I think by some recent form um concerns and uh I think he put a lot of those to bed. He he showed up um really strong out outside of like you said, he had a little blow up there that kind of cost him, but outside of that, I mean, he was very much in the mix uh to even, you know, be be in that final playoff. Do you like him as the same price as Colin? Uh I would I mean I would prefer him over Colin to be honest, but um are there any head-to-heads? Maybe you get a Yeah. Yeah, I would look for him as a head-to-head. Um, versus Colin, maybe anybody not on this list, right? Or Yeah, if you could find him versus Colin in a headto-head, I would take him. Yeah. All right. Justin Thomas. I’ve seen a lot of people a lot of people on on the Twitter talking about Justin Thomas, including Tap for Cash. Yeah, 20 to1 isn’t isn’t generous. Like, I don’t I’m not running to the window right now at 20 to1. Let’s check his history. Um, well, Masters 36th lost three strokes off the tea, which should not be an issue here. Approach play and around the green has been good, which is what matters here. History 5th, 25th, 35th, 8th, 75th, 11th. Played pretty well last year. Um, yeah. I again, Thomas is another one of those guys that I just never quite get to. Yeah. Uh, what’s maybe a top 10? We got a plus 150. I don’t hate that. Um, I I almost view JT as a little bit of an inverse of Xander where he gets I feel overpriced a little bit based on the name, brand recognition, expectations, you know, all that, whereas like Xander gets I feel like underpriced. Um, yeah, I don’t know. JT is just an ick at this point. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, agreed. Um, yeah. I don’t know that we want anything here. I mean, like you said, I mean, maybe you could look at a top 10, but I’m not I don’t know. That’s not really uh Yeah, I’m not looking for that. Aaron Ry 45 to one has success here. Is playing pretty well. hits the ball as straight as as possible. Is it Aaron Rise time to shine? Uh, he’s a guy I had into the DFS um lineup right off the bat. Uh, 7900. Yeah, 27th last week. Gain strokes and everything except putting at the RBC. Oh, wait. He does not have success here. Sorry. 48th two years ago. Um, and that’s it. So, h didn’t putt well at all. Lost two strokes putting last year. Um, okay. So, the course history is a little bit Yeah, not tons of data on that. Um, but he could be in the mix. 45 to one. Yeah. I don’t know. I think I’m What’s this top 10? 270. It doesn’t It doesn’t It doesn’t speak to me. No. No. I was going to say I’m out. Okay. Um what about SE? 45 to1. Same as Aaron Ry. Yeah. Let’s see. I was going to see. Um, yeah, I know he missed the cut last week. He had a bad uh first round. Uh, he was had a really good run of form going into the Masters. I know a lot of people um liked him uh to perform at least as kind of that mid-priced guy, but Oh, wow. Okay. um gained strokes on approach in every event this year except one when he has struggled. It’s been off the tea, which we’re going to just assume is negligible at this course. Putts much better on POA greens, which is what this is. Putting splits are significantly better as compared to bent grass and Bermuda. And the kicker history fifth cut third. I think I’m finding a way to get to SE. Yeah. Yeah. I don’t I don’t hate that. Um so may you know even maybe uh a little I like a 45 to1 and a little bounce back spot too. Yeah. A little juice on an outright. Maybe what’s a what’s a top 10? 280. I’m okay with a little 280 on the top 10 even. Yeah, including ties. Okay. Uh Shane Lowry, one of my favorites this year. I mean, imagine the storyline. I mean, if you want to decode a little bit, a Rory victory followed by a Se sorry, a Shane Lowry victory. I I mean, imagine the headlines. Yeah. And he uh was really in the mix. He completely kind of pissed down his leg on uh Sunday at the Masters. Otherwise, I mean, he was like firmly in contention, I felt. Um yeah, what did he He went 7168 72. Uh I believe he was in the top 10 going into Sunday. Uh, and he shot an 81 on Sunday, so that’s not gonna get it done. But, um, yeah. Oh, his history here is not amazing. 6467, third, ninth, cut, third, 44. So, uh, couple few top 10, very streaky. Um but this season he’s gaining on approach off the tea. When he’s struggled, he’s struggled. I don’t love the outright as much as I once thought I was going to. Yeah. 200 top 10. I may end up staying off of this completely. Yeah. H Yeah. Yeah. And he’s like he’s a fairly pricey DFS guy as well this week. So, no for you. Yeah. Yeah. All right. What about Sunjm? Can he go Can he uh turn it around and do it again? 45 to1. Great mo great great week last week. Full of momentum. Oh gosh. I was going to say, wow, I wonder how he’s done the year. Um, his approach play this year has lost strokes. Has lost two strokes, six strokes, seven strokes, three strokes, four strokes, five strokes, five strokes. Um, and I’ve told you, oh gosh. Oh boy. Okay. What do you do with this info? lost strokes in 80% of his event events this year which is the most an approach which is the most important statistic historically at Harbortown gained approach 12th 7th 21st 13th nearly top 20 every time he’s been here but this season he’s losing an approach. So, do you care about course history and and uh what he has proven or do you care about recency in what he has struggled with? Uh I would that’s probably enough to steer clear here. Okay. Um top 10 is 280 similar to SE. Well, see, look, it is it does correspond. 45 to one is 280. 45. Yeah. Aaron Rise 270, which is 45. Yeah. So, they all kind of trickle down. So, that’s why I think maybe with Fleetwood, there could have been a little more value if he’s going to perform but not win. Um, I don’t know. I mean, I want to be on Sunjm if he wins like, but you’re right. It it he’s missing something. Okay, I’ll tell you the truth. Lucas Glover was the one guy on this list that I said, “Hold up. What’s going on here?” So, uh, what’s his DFS price? 6,900. But he was, uh, on a little bit of a tear going into the Masters. And, um, tough first day. Kind of, uh, had him miss the cut. Yeah. And I don’t think he was set up for that course. So that the recency of that does not even remotely bother me. Um yeah, cuz he lost strokes off the tea. His approach plays been fine. What’s his history here? Come on, give us some top 10. Give me some faith. 33rd cut, 48th, 33rd, 21st, 33rd, 33rd. He’s played here so much. Oh my. He has played here. Why does he Why has he played here so much? He’s played here almost every year since 2005. He’s played here for 20 years straight. Um never never performed. His he he has a top he has a seventh place in 2008. A handful of his cuts. His most recent success is 21st five years ago. Huh. But is it his time? If the glove fits, you must bet his outright. I don’t know. That’s That’s a little concerning to me. Um, what’s your guys’ thoughts on Thomas? Um, we we we kind of are under the impression that he is being priced because of his name in some ways. We don’t love the 20 to1. We think there’s maybe some mild value in a top 10 at plus 150. Red is like, “Okay, fine. I’ll bet it. There’s there’s little value.” Yellow’s like, “I feel good.” Now, Zach doesn’t feel good about the outright on Scotty Sheffller. I do. And then if we get a green on here, that’ll be like absolutely hammer. This is the play. Um, we haven’t found any that we just are completely blown away by. Um, think think of like red as a sprinkle. Think of yellow as a as a standard unit. And think of green as a as a mega whale max, as a supermax, as a horse lock, if you will. Um, but 90 to one. But 90 to one. What’s top 20? What’s top 20? If Lucas Glover is above 250 top 20, but he’s played here a hundred times and he’s never finished top 20, has he? I mean, not I don’t know. He’s 170. He’s 170. I’ll pass. Okay. Yeah, I’ll pass. But, you know, I’m going to put a teeny dot. Okay. Just just just like there’s something in me that just feels like maybe it’s Lucas’s time. McIntyre, does he rebound after last week thoughts? I don’t like it. Yeah, Bobby Mack kind of let us down uh quite a bit last week. I think he’s probably uh appropriately priced here. Yeah, I don’t know that I like him as a lefty because uh correct me if I’m wrong, there’s a lot of like hard left dog legs here. Yeah, I think Yeah, it mixes up. There’s a lot of I could figure out what what the breakdown is, but there there’s left and rights. Yeah. Yeah. Um, now the only thing that makes me nervous is before his mis cut, he was ninth, ninth, 11th, cut sixth. So, no, I know that’s why we loved him last week. And it’s funny how quickly like things kind of turn, how uh sentiments can change. He’s only played here in 2021. and lost five lost five strokes approach. Yeah. No, I don’t like it. I don’t like it. I don’t like it. I will say it’s interesting. I because I’m I’m looking at uh you know the the winner and the second and the runner up of every um every event here, right? And it’s not a lot of like big time names that have been on the winning side. I mean last year obviously Scotty won but outside of that like you know speed two years ago but then it’s a lot of uh Steuart Sink Webb Simpson Satoshi Kadra Panch Chong Sun uh Wesley Bryan Brandon Grace Jim Furick I saw uh what’s his name Harold Varner was on there too yeah like runners up what’s that did Harold Varnner go to live yeah he’s one of the four aces. Okay. Yeah. Um, who could forget? Forgot about him. Um, yeah. I mean, exactly. I think it’s a that’s why like a Daniel. Oh, yeah. Of course. Um, that’s why some of these fringe guys tempt me. Se Burger, Lucas Glover. Now, listen. I know you don’t like the lefty, but Brian Harmon 80 to one, one two weeks ago doesn’t need to hit the ball far. I don’t know. Is he gonna I I can’t see like again this is objective reasoning here, but is Brian Harmon going to win two tournaments in three weeks? Like like that’s I don’t know. Um, okay. You know, I think that’s a fair assessment, but let me throw you some numbers. Like 15 times he’s been here, okay? 7th, 9th, 13th, 7th, 12th, 35th, 28th, 23rd, 45. Do we like a top 10? Do we like listen at 80 to one? I might I might find a way. Yeah. I don’t know. But but but but I won’t I won’t uh I I won’t I won’t mark it down. What’s his top What’s his top 20? If his top 20 is plus money, are you interested? Uh if his top his his top 20 will almost certainly be plus money [Music] 160. Oops. Nope. Put in the wrong slot. I don’t hate it. I’m even seeing plus 175 plus 200. Again, I don’t know if that’s dead heat or not, but um yeah. Yeah. I mean, I guess did he he was uh pretty pretty bad last week? No. Um, yeah, but the distance I think off the tea, he lost two and a half strokes uh last week, which I don’t think Oh, well, he finished 36. It’s not terrible. Yeah. Well, I think I think a 160 top 20 for a guy who knows the course isn’t isn’t at the worst price you’ll you’ll find. Yeah. Um, okay. Now, two guys I’m fine with just talking about these two because they’re uh Brian Campbell, Ryan Gerard. So, Ryan Gerard only appeared four times in the model, but at an average of 72. And then Brian Campbell also four times, but at an average of 80. So, when Brian Campbell fit the metrics, he really fit the metrics. Um, do you have a guess at what Brian Campbell’s price is odds? I mean, it’s got to be in the hund three digits. Yeah. Uh, plus it’s 250 to one. So, here is where I think maybe we can find a play that makes sense because while Brian Campbell is not likely going to win this event, this is giving me Sunjm vibes from the Masters where okay, this guy is a clear outlier that popped up multiple times. Why? So, let’s look and see just at his recent performances. Let’s parlay Brian Campbell and Brian Harmon and do the double Brian top 20. Brian Campbell, $6,000 on DFS. He might be a must play. Loses strokes off the tea in almost every event. Not great. But here, let’s maybe say it doesn’t matter. Has never played at the RBC. Okay, this is starting to this is starting to fall apart quickly. Gained five strokes approach at the Masters. Tied for 32. Putted well. Has been putting well all year. Top 20. Let’s see what his number is. 290 for top 20. I think maybe he’s just a DFS guy. You think you can get to him in DFS? Oh, I can’t hear you. Oh, uh, yeah. No, I was saying that I um I originally had him there on the uh the DFS and now I think I’m starting to get talked out of it. A lot of the things you was you were saying are it was adding up to that 250 to one. I think it uh it starting to make a little more sense. Okay, we’ll erase it. What about Ryan Gerard and then I’m good to move on to DFS if you’d like. I don’t need to talk about these other guys. Yeah, I know because those guys Yeah. Uh yeah, first Gerard and then I’ll give a quick note on some of those guys under there. Who’s underneath Kantlay? It’s um Denny McCarthy. Okay. Uh okay. Ryan Gerard second and ninth last two tournaments. Didn’t play at the Masters. Never played at RBC. Gaining strokes on approach nearly every event. Putting well off the tea has not been fantastic. Right. But if we knock that off. Okay. So, yeah. Um, what do you think his outright is? If I had to guess, somewhere 90 120 to one. 125. Okay. Would you sprinkle an outright on Ryan Gerard? Um, again using uh non non analytical research here. Does he have any outright wins on the on the tour? Of course not. But don’t you want to be his don’t you want to be one of the the guys who had his first outright win? I don’t know. I don’t If he wins, he wins. You know, we we don’t need to waste money on I will say this. I just um I did just come to a pretty uh a conclusion of a nice prop bet that I’m going to try I’m going to look up a price on real quick. Okay. Something that I do like. But yeah, stand by on that as I uh as I search. But I might go our first green here. Really? Ryan Gerard top 20 at 240. Okay. Yeah, that’s not bad. I don’t hate that. Yeah, might be the best bet. Might be the best bet on here. Top 20 including ties at 240. Okay, what’s your prop bet? What do you think about this? Will there be a playoff? No. Scotty’s going to win by four. So, what do you think the price is on? Yes. I would take will there be a playoff at above. Let me go see how close these these have been historically. Uh well, don’t no don’t don’t I can’t. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. My gut my gut says 370 is fair value. Yeah. So plus 350 is what I saw on DK. I’m checking a couple other spots. Um, two of the last three years have gone to a playoff here. Okay. And a playoff. Yeah. Uh, no, he won by three strokes over Thagala, which shocking to see The Gala placed here based on um his player profile, but uh, nonetheless, so three strokes by Scotty, then playoff playoff, four strokes. Um, the runners up were tied. Then one stroke, one stroke, playoff, one stroke, two strokes, playoff, one stroke, playoff. So that goes all the way back to 2013, right? And 12 years, 50% of the time nearly like over half the time they’re going into playoff. I mean, what? Let’s see. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. nine of those years, nine out of 13 years, it’s either a playoff or one stroke. Okay. And then if you went even like beyond like, you know, before that, like 2011 playoff, 2010 playoff. So true. What are their average? There’s been there’s a lot of playoffs here is what I’m um It gives me the uh to par. Yeah. Like are we minus 11ish? like what’s what’s the um so what do you want? So I mean Scotty was 19. Um oh okay then back-to-back playoffs were 1713. Spith and Kentlay had a playoff here. Um that was uh minus 13. Webb Simpson won by one stroke despite shooting 22 under. Uh be Abraham answer by one stroke minus 12 was one stroke minus 12 playoff minus3 one uh 18 playoff 11. Yeah. So okay minus anywhere from – 9 to minus 19 has won this thing over the past uh you know 12 13 years. Okay. plus 350. I’ll allow it. Over half of those are playoff. So, yeah. Okay. Yeah. It was just something that stood out to me when I was looking here at results and I see how many playoffs there have been. It’s just like I mean that’s a lot. I wonder what Yeah, it’s a lot. That’s a lot of playoffs uh or one stroke winner. So Ash Batia at 71 actually doesn’t I don’t hate that. I’m just trying to finish. He was uh suspiciously priced low on DFS and from an odds perspective. Yeah. Not going to be able to ride in here because this bar is in the way, which is just I mean just just an awful I mean this is just pathetic setup by by this. But um can’t lay 18 to1. What’s McCarthy? Because I’ve been kind of liking Denny McCarthy lately. If he’s over 100 to one, I’m I’m taking it. H 55. Okay. Denny’s 55. What’s his uh what’s his status here? What What were we going to say about some of these guys at the bottom? Uh that I mean those are just got like, you know, Connors, Fenale, Kentlay, like those guys are going to be more times than not they’re just going to make this list. Um just kind of based on overall game, but I don’t know. I’m not necessarily looking to invest uh here. Um yeah, here Buzzy’s asking about JT JT Poston if you have any thoughts on him. Um he didn’t make the cut here on this uh and I wanted to follow back or circle back and follow up on uh Coocher as well. Uh interesting note I had pulled up on Coocher, but yeah, go ahead on JT Poston. Yeah, I’ll give you some numbers on JT Poston. Uh he popped up once on the model. Um only once. Um just kind of been average this year, huh? Just a lot of mid20s history at the RBC. Fifth cut, third cut, eighth, sixth. What a call out by Buzzy Bet. Oh. Um Oh. Huh. So played here six times, cut twice, top 10 every other time. Funny enough, lost strokes on approach in two of those four top 10. Dominates on putting. I mean, just putting the lights out at this course around the green, killing it as well. JT Poston may be somebody that’s worth a shot. Might need to ride him in. Yeah, but good for good for Buzzy Bets. I talked about him in on the ballot. Yeah. What What’s uh let’s look at his outright. Um 70 to1 top 20. Are we Do we like a top 20? Um yeah. I mean he’s going to be probably close to that, you know, under two to one above. I’d say he’d probably be somewhere above 150. I mean, I’m seeing some plus 190s. Um 150 on FanDuel. Yeah, that might I I would feel pretty good about a JT posting top 20 at 150. Yeah, we I mean, he may have to be a ride in. You’re right. Yeah, that’s a great that is a great call out. Makes the cut. always just kind of in the, you know, he was had a been in a pretty good run of form. Um, even going into last week, 26, 28, 33. Yeah. And loves the course, it seems. So, that’s good. Okay. Yeah, we’re going to make I’m going to make note of that. Um, okay. I didn’t build any DF. Are we good to Are we Do we feel okay where this is? I’ll I’ll post it afterwards. Clean it up a little bit. Um, any other thoughts? Oh, Coocher. You wanted some coocher cooer knowledge? Yeah. Well, I know that he’s played well here. Um, he was he’s a guy that was I guess he got a uh sponsor’s exemption to play here. Um, he’s basically the very last person in the field. uh the 72nd and final spot into the field this week. Um holy smokes, he has a great history here. Like he has played like fantastic here. It’s almost sickening. Yeah. Like I wish I could show you what I’m looking at. He is the cheapest person in the entire DFS uh pool at $6,000. And like I said, it’s he was the very last person added in, but um it suits his game. You know, he obviously uh knows his way around this track. Uh he has seven top 10s and 13 wait hold on what does this say? He uh he won in 2014. Sure. 10 years ago and has collected a total of seven top 10s and 13 top 10s in 20 prior starts. He has made the cut in five of his six starts this season. Uh, and he was uh 18th at the Valero Texas Open. How do we feel? Yeah, Buzzy likes Coocher. I mean, I was looking like I mean, I’ll tell you one thing that I’m for sure probably just going to bet is Coocher top 40 is like minus 120. Really? Top 20 is 290. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So, we’re gonna add Coocher and and and Yeah. and JT to to this post. Yeah. Not Thomas. No, forget Thomas. Yeah. Yeah. We We’ll let Tapper Cash get all the Justin Thomas action. Not interested. Um Yeah. I mean, looking at his strokes gained metrics, this is this is unbelievable. You have to go back to 2007 to where he didn’t gain strokes. I don’t even want to read these to you because they’re absurd. There he has gained more than 10 strokes one, two, three times in the last 10 years. And he’s gained over five in like nine of those last 10. Yeah. I would say go ahead, throw him in your DFS lineup because he’s going to make the cut. like he’s more likely than not going to play well and he’s going to cost you nothing. He’s going to give you a ton of flexibility. What is his what’s what is his what’s his outright? I mean let’s why can’t we you know 200 to one? Yeah. Take home his third. He’s won twice, right? That should be his third. I mean even a top 20 at 290 it feels good. Top 40 top Yeah. Okay. All right. Let’s uh let’s talk DFS. As you can see, I didn’t I didn’t do anything. Uh I wanted to just build live. 150 to one. That’s what I’m seeing on him. What? Outright. Yeah. What is it? 150 to one. 200 on DraftKings, but Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you wouldn’t you wouldn’t pay five bucks for a grand just to Yeah. I’m gonna throw Yeah, I’m gonna throw some shackles at it. Um, uh, okay. Let’s build a little lineup. I hate to just follow in your coocher footsteps, but it’s a it’s a good foundational piece to have because then it allows you to do anything. Like I mean, how about I have a lineup that I feel really good about with cooer in it that I have $1,200 unspent. Wow. I don’t think there’s going to be many of those lineups. And it has it uses almost all people that are in the green up there in uh on your sheet here. Wow. Double wow. Okay. Yeah. Um almost all. Yeah. I mean, I guess I could I could take out Lucas Glover and upgrade him. Sheffller is so expensive. 13,000. Yeah, just skip him. Put Xander instead. Take Xander instead. Although, I will say, well, I don’t think you’d be able to get him. No. You want me to go Xander and Scotty? No, you can’t. You can’t. You don’t have enough money. See what I can do here. Yeah. Yeah. But I love Scotty, man. 13 is just so much. You’re right. 13 is too much. Um, so put in your guy. Uh, you could go Xander, Tommy, Fleetwood, Burger. You can get all those guys. Um, oh gosh, imagine I go Ryan Gerard and really have some money. Oh man, I could go Fleetwood, huh? Jason Day is not on here and he’s kind of been playing lights out. So, let me just read this one off based on uh I made a couple adjustments while we’ve been kind of talking through stuff. So, I go I got Fleetwood, Glover, Cooer, JT Poston, Xander, Sebstraka. Yeah. Yeah, that feels good. Yeah, I could upgrade Straa to speed if I wanted. I don’t know that I do want to, but I could burger. And that’s the thing. I I put JT Post in after Buzzy’s. Uh I had Burger there before, so you could have burger there. Um, I trimmed off. I went down to JT Poston. That Glover spot is one I could upgrade. I could go up to if you liked Harmon, but yeah, there’s a lot of like guys in the seven and eights that just are so very playable. Like I’m looking at this and I don’t I don’t love it, but I What’s going on with Sew Kim? Has he been injured? Like what’s his deal? I don’t know. Um I think he popped up once. Yeah. Um no, he’s popped up twice, but yeah, very low. 63 each time. Yeah. Um I don’t know. Um yeah, falls in the cracks for me. Um hm. Okay. Yeah, there’s a lot of things. I mean, do we have any do we feel any way about Justin Rose? Didn’t come up, but after last week, are we uh I’m It’s kind of a stay away for me. Um I mean, look, he’s a fine player, but he the M like he is a guy that’s just um plays exceptionally well at Augusta National. Like, I’m not going to expect too much of a carryover here. Okay. I would be pretty surprised to see him get a top 10. Okay. Here, Jason Day is the last guy I I’ll want to talk about cuz a really good year this year, but didn’t I don’t know if he popped up at all. Yeah. So, what’s what’s uh what’s keeping Jason Day away? because he was okay last week, right? Yeah. I think middle of the pack. Eighth. Eighth. Yeah. I mean, he was another guy that just kind of snuck into the top 10. Putted really well. Yeah. Him and Sander. It’s like they weren’t getting they weren’t following them at all. 18th cut, 23rd, 30th, 9th, 22nd. So, yeah, just kind of there at Harbortown. Um but but with as well as he’s been playing, you know, maybe what’s his here we go. What Buzzy says. He’s never built a DFS lineup, but um why did we talk ourselves out of Ry? Because I think we liked him. What was it with Ry that we uh talked ourselves out of the putting? Um or maybe he’s been pretty poor here. It was either that or he hadn’t played here. He had a 48th here two years ago. Um 27th cut, 14th, 11th for why did we talk ourselves out? I don’t know. We’ll have to watch the tape back cuz lack of lack of experience here is about the only thing that would maybe hold you back. But um maybe price. I don’t know. I don’t hate it. DFS. I think it’s worth it. Morokawa, Henley, McCarthy, Ry Glover, and Taylor. Yeah. See, that’s the thing. It’s like there’s so many guys about 8,000 that if you throw some cheap ones in, then it just opens up for Yeah. 25 dudes and it’s hard to It’s hard to to I mean, Coocher is he is basically going to be a foundational piece of all my DFS lineups. Yeah. Yeah, which I usually do two. I’ll usually do two lineups and then like enter into it, sprinkle around a handful of contests. So, yeah. Okay. Well, I’m I’m content. I think, you know, I hate to say it, but I think Scotty Maybe he’s not going to win. Maybe I’m just blinded. Maybe I’m blinded by what was once Scotty. Maybe he doesn’t have it anymore. Well, look, he’s still a fine golfer. It’s just it’s what I said at the beginning. He can’t win every tournament. Like, yeah, he is he going to finish top 10? Probably. Has he won this year? I don’t think he’s won this year. I mean, he’s more likely than not going to finish top 10 here. Like, yeah, sure. But, you know, I’m just fourth, second. Yeah, I’m not rushing to bet outrights at 4 to one. Like, that’s crazy. It’s crazy. It is. It is crazy. What What would What would Tiger have been in his in his heyday? Was Tiger four to one? Was Tiger less? I mean, what like is this crazy for for historically in the PGA or or is this just Tiger 2.0? Um, I mean, I wouldn’t say Tiger 2.0 yet, like because because I don’t know, and I’ll probably get some heat about saying this. I think there’s a lot more I mean, not to diminish anything Tiger accomplished. I do think overall the field has a lot more talent than it did. Um, especially, you know, before Liv kind of stole some guys away. Yeah. Um, so you’re a LeBron over Jordan guy for the same reason then, right? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, good. Among other reasons, but yeah. Okay, good. Glad glad we don’t have to argue about that. Yeah. Um Okay. Well, I think what I’m going to do is I’m going to clean this up and I’m going to put out a final thoughts, a final thoughts tweet. I’ll link this video to it. Yeah, we need to get Matt Coocher in here somehow on this sheet. I’ll uh I’ll I’ll add him at the bottom. Yeah. Um, okay. Yeah, let me screenshot this because I know it’s going to go away when I when I leave. Okay. Well, any final thoughts? Any final words from you? No, I mean another uh fun stream here. I think we uh just almost got to um you know, tallied up about 500 views. So, uh, appreciate that everybody who tuned in, listened to two, um, you know, knuckleheads babble about golf and DFS and and gambling. So, uh, it’s been a lot of fun. Look forward to, uh, what what’s next week’s um, oh, the Pentacana. Is that um you know me I’m a weak out of time. Corales Pentacana and then uh the uh Zurich classic which I think that is the one that uses the um is that either the the twoman teams or the uh what’s the other scoring? I do not know. Oh god, I’m this is going to drive me nuts. It’s like a fake event. No, no, no, no, no. Stableford. Um, there’s a sta there’s a stableford. Uh, I think that’s the Zurich, but I could be wrong. Anyway, we’ll get into that uh as we go on uh during the schedule. But, you know, we have the our uh our first major out of the way. Oh, it’s the Barracuda. That’s what it is. the Barracuda uses the uh stable for scoring, so that’ll be fun. But yeah, no, like I said, thanks to everybody who uh who showed up. We’ll uh be running this back, you know, every week throughout the PGA season. So, uh thanks again for checking us out. Uh we’ll see you next week.
Related Posts
