Profitable Sports Betting For People Who Aren’t Very Smart

You don’t need to be a genius to make money betting on sports. In this video, we break down a simple, profitable approach to sports betting — even if you’re not a math wizard or analytics nerd. No complex spreadsheets, no advanced stats — just a clear strategy anyone can use to beat the sportsbooks over time.

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NBA
NBA.com (advanced statistics)
Addmorefunds.com
Cleaningtheglass.com
Popcornmachine.net
MLB
Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.com
Brooksbaseball.net
NFL
PFF.com
NFLsavant.com
Pro-football-reference.com
Teamrankings.com

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Hard work means nothing if it’s not efficient work. And efficient work means nothing if it’s not effective work. And that right there is sports betting in a nutshell. You work harder than everybody else to find an edge, to beat the books, to turn a profit, only to figure out in the end nothing actually works. It’s like being the fastest person to run a race only to find out you were running the wrong direction the whole time. And then the thought creeps in, maybe I’m just not smart enough for this. Well, here’s the truth. If you’re watching this video, no, you’re probably not smart enough to build the next groundbreaking sports betting model from the ground up. Neither am I. But here’s the good news. You don’t actually have to be a genius to find an edge in sports betting. You just need to know where to look. And then once you find it, you need to learn how to exploit it. So these five edges I’m about to tell you about, they’re super easy to deploy. Sure, there’s a learning curve with everything. And some of them are more complicated than others, but I promise you, you stick around to the end, you’ll have a much better understanding of what an edge actually is in sports betting and how to put money in your pockets. So, let’s make it happen. Promo hunting or betting bonuses, betting boost, taking advantage of every promo across all of the books is the most lowhanging edge, the most lowhanging fruit in all of sports betting. And don’t ever think it’s beneath you because anybody, no matter their limits, should be betting these every time they get the chance. And no, it’s obviously not a get-richquick play, but why would you not take the edge that a sports book is willingly providing you? And if your accounts are in good health without limits, these books are going to give you pretty decent bonuses, pretty decent limits on these boosts and these promos, which means that you are already going to place bets anyway. And now you’re adding 30% profit boost onto them. And this is the easiest way for, let’s say, not the sharpest better to turn a bad bet into a less bad bet, a bad bet into a good bet, or a good bet into an even better bet. The key to this one, though, is that you should have accounts on as many sports books as possible because they’re all running boost essentially simultaneously, but they’re going to be different. The promos will be different. The bonuses will be different. Exploit all of those. Take what they’re offering to you. Now, sure, there are going to be some people in the state of, say, Florida who only have access to Hard Rock. doesn’t apply to you. Still bet the boost promos and bonuses on Hard Rock, but if you have access to Caesars, Bet MGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, uh the list goes on. Bet 365, go ahead and sign up for all of them. Even if you’re working with a small bankroll, rebalance it from where it was. Add funds to all of those accounts and bet those bonuses every day. Remember guys, in the end, you were already going to bet most of the stuff you’re betting with boosts anyway. So now you can turn some h maybe sketchy bets into something really good. Also, if you’re not on those books yet, I put all of the best bonuses and signup offers down below in the description. Click those, take advantage of it. Make sure you’re on every book if you’re going to hunt these bonuses. It is the best and easiest way to build your bankroll from the ground up. If you’re starting small or even if you have a somewhat significant bankroll already, I’ll bet five and $10 promos. I don’t care. No sweat home run promos. Let’s do it. If you’re going to give it to me, I’m going to take it because free money is free money no matter how you cut it. One warning and very important warning for these promos and boosts and bonuses though. A 30% profit boost, okay, is going to be pro it’s going to be profitable for you long term no matter what you do. You’re you’re turning whatever bet already a plus EV minus EV bet into a plus EV bet with a 30% boost. Right? If you’re getting any type of bets where the book is pre-making these parlays for you and then saying that they’re boosting it, run from that like the plague. So, let’s say four home run parlay that they put together for you, right? Four players that hit a home run and they say, “Look, we boosted it.” I’ll bet you if you went and looked on other books, the odds are still better on some of those than they would be on the one where they already artificially boosted it. So, yes, 30% profit boost, all of that type of stuff, bet it every time. But the pre-made stuff, stay far away from that. Now, origination is an edge that, well, put it this way, you can be extraordinarily smart and originate your bets, which is a bottomup approach, right? Like, you are actually evaluating the statistics, the matchup, the situations, the injuries, the the weather, the coaching, the umpiring, all of that stuff. And you are building it from the ground up. And you are finding your bets that way. Now, you could be a genius and model out something beautiful and have the best projections you can find, or you could be someone like myself, I’d say slightly above average intelligence that is able to originate certain bets in a specific way, right? And typically that will be situational whether it’s injury news whether it’s understanding teams rotations in the NBA on a backtoback in football understanding as crazy as this sounds certain coach speak and what what’s true and what isn’t before the game is actually played. So there are ways to originate even if you’re not building out a model on your own. If you plan on using something like this as an edge though I’d be very careful to understand how you’re doing it. Remember at the beginning of the video I said, “Yeah, you you ran the race. You were the fastest person in the race. Turns out you went in the wrong direction.” Right? You look like an idiot now and you’re wondering why nobody’s coming up to congratulate you. In this case, you’re wondering why you’re not profiting. It’s because people originate their own bets, but they’re not using any predictive data. All of the stats they’re using are essential garbage. Garbage in, garbage out is exactly as it goes with sports betting. So, if you’re using last 10 data, right, and like, wow, he went over this prop in eight of his last 10 games. Well, first of all, the prop you’re looking at, the line itself is likely going to be different. You’re not accounting for any additional context, like who was on the floor and off the floor? Was everybody a active? Was anybody injured? None of that. The matchup is different, right? Is this a a big man going up against a small ball team that’s going to space the floor and now he’s going to get pulled off the court? There’s so much that goes into that when you’re using these tiny samples like last five, last 10, I’d even say last 20 because everything is constantly in flux. That’s why you’re not winning. And that’s why origination is only good if you actually have an edge. And I’ll give you a perfect example of this. You could give me any prop right now for baseball. Give me a pitcher prop. Strikeouts over under five and a halfks for USA Kikuchi against the Chicago White Sox. I could sit here right now. You give me 10 minutes and I could come back and I could give you a fantastic answer why the over is a wonderful play and I could give you just as good an answer on why the under is the same quality of play as the over without telling you one or the other. I could convince you that both of them are great. Why? There’s so much going on under the hood in baseball in so many of these sports that if you have a bias going into something, let’s say you see that you’re like, “Man, I think I like this that that looks good today. Let me go and try and back that up.” Well, you already have a bias. There’s a preconceived notion that you’re going to bet the over on kikuchi strikeouts. So now you’re going to find things that are verifying what you already believe. Whereas if I came in wanting to bet the under, I could do the same thing. So that stuff garbage. Forget about that. You need to know that the stats you’re using are actually providing you an edge. But if that is your speed and you want to do that, because I’ll tell you what, it is fun. You know, for a lot of these sports, for the NFL, pouring over data and statistics and and the NBA and the MLB, it is a lot of fun. It’s time consuming, and I don’t always have time to do it, but for football, when I can, I do. I threw a bunch of links for free uh stats and data down there in the description. So, let’s say it’s MLB, NFL. I threw a bunch of links down there for all of the free sites that I use to gather my information and my data every single day on betting these sports. Now, remember I said origination is fun, but it’s time consuming. I know people who spend 15 plus hours a day originating bets, and they’re super profitable. There’s no doubt about it. And they’re very, very sharp, and they have a process that works. But when you don’t have the time and maybe you don’t have the skill to originate your own bets, that is where top- down or market-based betting comes into play. And I’ll tell you what, for the NBA season, about 90% of my total bets come from a top- down approach. Here’s why. Number one, I don’t have enough time in the day to find enough bets to make me feel comfortable each and every day of the NBA season or the MLB season for that matter. And number two, I’m simply not smart enough to build out a model where I feel like I’d have a significant edge over the books, where they have tons of people setting these lines and monitoring them and moving them each and every day. With a top- down approach, I don’t actually need to do any research because I’m letting the market do all of the work for me. Think of it like this. Aaron Judge is plus 170 to Homer on 15 different books, give or take, right? plus 160, plus 150, maybe a plus 180, plus 185. But over there on DraftKings, Aaron Judge is plus 225. Well, where are you going to bet that? It’s not going to be on those 15 books. It’s going to be where you’re getting the plus 225 and marketkedly better odds than anywhere else, which over the course of time is going to make you a boatload more money than not paying any attention to where you’re placing those bets. Now, consider this with a top- down approach where you’re getting hundreds of those bets every day for you to bet where you can then click a single button and it’ll add 20 of them into your bet slip at a single time. That is efficiency right there more than anything else. You are grinding small edges by identifying the true odds and that is essentially what the odds on a bet should be. So, let’s say Aaron Judge plus 225 on DraftKings. Okay, plus one say average of plus 160 everywhere else. and you’re using a top- down model that says these odds should actually be plus 190. Well, guess what? You’re getting it at plus 225, which means you’re objectively making a fantastic bet that’s going to make you money. And when I said earlier that some of these processes can be complicated. This is one of them because you’re you’re identifying the discrepancies in the market and you’re using it against that specific sports book. One bet it may be DraftKings, another it may be FanDuel, one may be Bet MGM and Caesars. The list goes on, right? And then you’re betting as many of those as you can every single day and watching that edge build up. And compounding returns with something like market-based betting are huge because the whole objective is to bet your bankroll through every single day while you can. Once it grows enough, you’re not going to be able to do that. If you have a $20,000 bankroll, it’s going to be tough to do that as you get limited across books, which will happen inevitably if you win money and you’re getting good closing line value. With top down betting, if you’re using a good tool, you absolutely will get closing line value and you absolutely will make money because that is the key to success in sports betting is getting better odds than the books are closing at and eventually you’ll get limited. But if you’re starting with a hundred or even 500, $1,000 bankroll, you can easily bet that every single day. And now that 5% ROI that didn’t look all that great looks a whole lot better when you consider that that is a 5% average daily ROI. Not an S&P 500 5% at the end of the year and I made oh wow I made $50 on my thousand. No, this is every single day and it compounds quickly. I’m limited to like 10 15 $20 bets across most sports books and still turned almost $6,000 in profit with a top down approach last month. 3% ROI, by the way. And it’s basically passive income. It’s not like I’m sitting here pouring over data every day. I’m just clicking a button. The bets go into the bet slip. I bet them 20 up up to 20 at a time. And then I put my phone back in my pocket. That’s all I do. I use the portfolio EV tool, by the way, from Odd Shopper. And if you wanted to check it out for yourself, start your top down journey, it’s a good one, and you’re going to make some money. Use the promo code edge ege at checkout. get you your first two weeks, not one week, first two weeks free. Link to that in the description. Code Edge for your first two weeks free. This next one might be a little bit controversial, but I don’t care because I know that I’m right. Tailing winners. Tailing proven winners. You might look at me and say that’s not an edge. Well, I’d say you’re wrong. If you are making money in sports betting, it genuinely does not matter how you are making money. It doesn’t matter. Somebody could tell you that just by tailing someone there is no edge. Well, I’ll tell you what the edge is. You found somebody, maybe a diamond in the rough, who is a proven profitable better who shows his results and offers you a subscription or a service that you can then pay for and make more money than you’re paying for the subscription. It’s that simple. It’s an edge. It may not be the most illustrious one. You may not go to your friends and brag about it, but if you have found someone that you can tail that is constantly making you money week over week, month over month, year over year, guess what? You found an edge. The problem is the sports betting space is littered with garbage in this respect. And there are people who will brag and boast about their wins, but never mention their losses. They will show you a picket without a name on it, a bet tracker without you understanding who they actually are, and the cycle continues. If you get caught by them, that is not an edge. Actually, that is the anti-edge. So, what I’d say in this instance is you should 100% be vetting these people if they’re unwilling to show you results if they’re un and I’m not talking about a parlay win that they hit in the 2023 football season for a fivetime anytime touchdown parlay. I’m talking about proven year-over-year results, right? That’s all you need. If they can show that and you trust them and they’re winning and you’re winning with them, that’s an edge. And while it may not seem like it anymore, especially if you’re on social media, there are still a lot of really sharp and profitable betterers out there who you can buy picks from. Over on the Tales platform at OddShopper, check it out if you think this is what you want to do. There are some really sharp people that are proven winners, who I know personally that would be happy to provide you with winning bets for essentially every sport. And I’ll say one more thing. There is nothing wrong if you want to tail somebody who doesn’t have an edge as long as they’re not bragging about having an edge. If this is somebody that loves throwing out long shots, they have a great personality, people think they’re great to be around in the Discord and they’re funny and they’re they they make sports betting fun and you’re doing it as a hobby. There’s nothing wrong with that. Again, don’t let anyone tell you that there is. Just don’t expect to go into it and win. So, if they’re not saying, “Hey, look, I’m a profitable better. Come in.” and then they lose you all of your money, but they just say, “Let’s make some bets. Let’s make some long shot home run parlays. Let’s bet some anytime touchdown parlays.” Who cares? If you want to give them your money, give them your money. If you’re having a good time and it’s making sports betting fun, that’s great. But there are edges to be out there and tailing people. The only difference is you need to vet them 100% first. And finally, arbitrage betting. If you understand what arbitrage betting is, you already know it can be very profitable. It is essentially, at least they tell you, a guaranteed profit, but there are also plenty of pitfalls. If you don’t know what arbitrage betting is, I’ll tell you. It is very simply being able to bet both sides of an event and guarantee yourself a profit. It’s essentially when the odds are just kind of out of whack across varying sports books. Take this example on Kevin Porter Jr. for example. If you were to bet the under on nine and a half points in this playoff game against the Pacers, you would get it at plus 112 on Novig, which is a peer-to-peer betting exchange. If you wanted the over, you grab it at even money, plus 100 on Bet MGM, and you are guaranteeing yourself a profit. And in this case, say you had $2,000 to bet on both sides of this event. In total, you’d be guaranteeing yourself $58 just by betting both sides of the same event. Here are the problems with arbitrage betting. One, you are going to need a pretty sizable bankroll. Now, you could start small, sure, but you’re going to be grinding out guaranteed profits of like one, two, three, four, $5 at a time. And two, let’s say your bankroll is large enough. Most of these books aren’t going to allow you to bet $1,000 on a random MBA prop. It’s just not going to happen. Sure, you can look to some of these offshore books and the exchanges where that would be where you should be arbing if you decide that you want to do this, right? Profitex, Novig, those type of peer-to-p peer exchanges are going to be a better haven because there are no limits there. But at the same time, you still need a pretty sizable bankroll if you’re going to turn out profit day overday. Or you have to start small and be willing to take time to build that up by seeking out these arbitrage edges every single day. And if this is something you want to do, because it look, it can be profitable. It can be lucrative if you do it the right way. Use the free arbitrage tool over on odd shopper. It’ll list out for all of the books you’re on all of the arbitrage opportunities throughout the day, 24 hours around the clock, constantly updating. But look, you need a big bankroll for this. If you’re doing it on some of these recreational books like a bet MGM or a DraftKings, there’s a very big possibility that you may not be limited. But then you go to bet one and now they have limited you and you’re caught on one side of that bet. There’s also the possibility that after you bet one side and go to close the arb on the other side, well maybe the odds are different and you no longer have that opportunity. So it’s guaranteed money if you’re able to lock in the right bet sizes on each side of these events. But there are definitely ways to screw things up. There’s no doubt about it. I think anyone who was armed before would tell you the exact same thing. Hopefully you guys found this video helpful and as always leave a comment down below if you have any questions. More than happy to help you out. Hit that thumbs up. If you found anything informative in this that is going to help you find your own edge as you go back into the sports betting space and try and figure some things out and follow me over on XLF_D. Any questions you have, any comments, you know where to find me. My DMs are always open. And we’ll see you back here for the next one. Peace.