Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for the 2025 Mexico Open. Watch for Top Picks, DFS Strategy and One and Done Picks.
If you understand Strokes Gained stats, you understand the narrow ability to gain strokes on putting when OTT and APP are both positive (unless you're scorching earth with scoring). If OTT or APP dissipate, ARG and putting stats have a larger opportunity to go positive (if all remains the same). For instance, if shot 4 always finds itself 1 foot away from the hole… then ARG and/or Putting can only gain strokes when OTT and APP is negative.
The difference between Scottie last year vs this year really only comes down to OTT and APP. I'd argue he's always been good at chipping. Nothing has really changed with his technique. Putting has always been shaky, but he's not hitting it as close as he was last year. That's why his short game stats look so good… he has the opportunity to actually gain on those stats this year (due to his poor ballstriking). And to Justin's take, putting for par is different than putting for birdie. In a vacuum, it shouldn't… but for those that have played competitively, we all know it does.
Anyways, great to listen to pros talk about golf. You tend to know the intricacies to golf and what these touring pros are experiencing to bridge the gap between psychology and stats.
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Speaking of Scottie…
If you understand Strokes Gained stats, you understand the narrow ability to gain strokes on putting when OTT and APP are both positive (unless you're scorching earth with scoring). If OTT or APP dissipate, ARG and putting stats have a larger opportunity to go positive (if all remains the same). For instance, if shot 4 always finds itself 1 foot away from the hole… then ARG and/or Putting can only gain strokes when OTT and APP is negative.
The difference between Scottie last year vs this year really only comes down to OTT and APP. I'd argue he's always been good at chipping. Nothing has really changed with his technique. Putting has always been shaky, but he's not hitting it as close as he was last year. That's why his short game stats look so good… he has the opportunity to actually gain on those stats this year (due to his poor ballstriking). And to Justin's take, putting for par is different than putting for birdie. In a vacuum, it shouldn't… but for those that have played competitively, we all know it does.
Anyways, great to listen to pros talk about golf. You tend to know the intricacies to golf and what these touring pros are experiencing to bridge the gap between psychology and stats.