Alex Hunter provides his top DraftKings fantasy golf value plays for The American Express.
Following back-to-back events in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR travels to La Quinta, California for The American Express. Since 2016, this tournament has featured three courses in La Quinta — the Pete Dye Stadium Course (par 72, 7,210 yards, POA overseed greens); the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course (par 72, 7,147 yards, POA overseed greens); and La Quinta Country Club (par 72, 7,060 yards, POA trivialis/ryegrass overseed greens). This is a full field of 156 golfers, each of whom will play one round on all three of these courses. Then, there will be a top-65 and ties cut. The players who advance will play the final round on the Pete Dye Stadium Course, making it the home course of The American Express. Nick Nunlap is the defending champion of this event, winning at -29 last year, one shot clear of Christian Bezuidenhout.
With two of the four rounds being played at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, plus all the previous SG data for The American Express exclusively coming from this par 72, the Pete Dye Stadium Course is the venue we need to be focusing on for research.
The Stadium Course is a short Pete Dye design home to large greens, narrow fairways, over 90 bunkers, and water in play on eight holes. Like most Dye creations, the Stadium Course is a less-than-driver venue that requires elite work with both your irons and putter. Of the past five American Express champions, three have finished the tournament top-eight in both SG APP and SGP.
The Stadium Course presents four very easy par fives and walking away with at least a birdie every time you face one of these holes is crucial, making strong par-five players great targets for this event. Including Dunlap last season, three of the past five American Express winners have either led their field or finished runner-up in par five efficiency during their victories.
Below, I dive into four of my favorite DraftKings bargain plays for The American Express that are all priced under $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $500K Pitch + Putt [$100K to 1st]
Bud Cauley ($7,300) – Ever since The American Express took on the three-course format in 2016, Cauley has thrived at this event with four top-15 finishes in five starts, including a T3 in 2017 and a T4 in 2020. The Alabama product clearly has a knack for these three tracks. Returning to the area in strong form this week, Cauley is a terrific value play.
Coming off a T30 at The Sony Open last week, Cauley has finished inside the top-35 in four of his past five starts, most notably with a T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October. Over this five-start stretch, Cauley has moved himself up a whopping 342 spots in the world golf rankings.
Lucas Glover ($7,200) – Glover has made five-of-eight cuts at The American Express and he travels to La Quinta this week riding a seven made cut streak. Five of these finishes have been top-25 results, including a T21 at the Sony Open last week in which the veteran posted a six-under 64 during the third round.
As always, Glover’s ball striking has been immaculate, ranking fifth in SG APP when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Plus, the former major champion’s putting has been strong, with him gaining strokes with his flat stick in back-to-back starts. Glover should have been priced near $8K in this type of form and must be rostered at only $7,200.
Alex Smalley ($7,200) – Smalley has never finished outside the top-25 at The American Express in three attempts and he is on the heels of a T16 at the Sony Open last week. Smalley was one of only nine players to gain strokes in every major category at Waialae CC, and this finish marked his sixth made cut and third top-25 finish in his past seven starts.
Smalley ranks 11th in par five efficiency when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. He is a sensational bargain at this low salary.
Michael Kim ($7,200) – Kim missed the cut at the Sony Open last week, but we shouldn’t let this stop us at this cheap price tag. After posting a three-over 73 in the first round last week, Kim fought back in the second round with a five-under 65 and he ended up only missing the cut by one shot. That 73 at Waialae CC was his first over-par performance in 16 rounds, and before this missed cut, Kim was on a tear, finishing T5th, T30th, T12th and T11th in his previous four starts.
Kim finished T6th at last year’s American Express and he should bounce back this week with a high finish. On top of Kim clearly being underpriced for his upside, the 31-year-old should naturally come with low ownership with a missed cut in his most recent start.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
