As professional golf’s fall season continues and the sport remains in its general offseason, it’s a good time for The Athletic to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider it a chance to engage in barroom golf discussion. If you have any topics or ideas you want to hear about from our writers, please suggest them in the comments.
This time, we’re debating how many major championships some of the world’s best men’s golfers will win in their lifetime. This is Part 2 — last time we discussed Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and more.
Xander Schauffele o/u 4.5 majors
Right now: 31 years old, 2 majors
Gabby Herzig: Under
Schauffele’s first two major wins elevated his status and instantly shifted his career trajectory. He went from being the guy who couldn’t close on the biggest stages to winning half of the majors in 2024. There is no doubt Schauffele is, save for Scottie Scheffler, the most complete player in the game. He has ramped up his swing speed by significant margins (No. 9 on the PGA Tour this year; up from No. 28 a year ago), improved his short game considerably and proved he can excel under pressure. But how will all of that hold up? Golf is a fickle game. Firing on all cylinders is tough to do, especially all the time. Is Schauffele’s two-major season form sustainable? How long can he maintain such an elite level of play? There are just too many unknowns. I don’t doubt Schauffele will win another major. But three? Ask me for a reassessment next year.
Brody Miller: Over
This is not an overreaction to Schauffele winning two majors in a year. It’s the opposite. It’s the reminder that these two wins are Schauffele’s elite major play finally gaining positive regression after a decade of steady play. The man has 30 career major starts, and he has finished top-10 in 15 of them. Half. He has finished top-20 in 23 of them! We were all within our rights to criticize him at the time for never winning, but now we all need to take a step back and realize he’s been one of the more impressive major performers of his era. He has the most balanced game to win anywhere. And he suddenly has a killer instinct we didn’t see before. It’s popular to make jokes about his dad, Stefan, but hey, I’ll leave us with a bold proclamation from Stefan at Royal Troon that I actually agree with:
“It’s up to you guys to take a look at the statistics and see who has the potential of being the next career grand slammers, because I think he is the one that has the game.”
Xander Schauffele broke through and got his first major at the PGA Championship. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)Bryson DeChambeau o/u 4.5 majors
Right now: 31 years old, 2 majors
Miller: Under
We have a challenge here. Do we run with his incredible age-30 season in which he seemed to dial in his game better than ever and go T6, solo second and a U.S. Open win at the first three majors? Or do we take a step back and realize that before 2024 he had four major top-10s in his career and a whole lot of messy runs well outside contention? It’s complicated. I believe this version of DeChambeau is here to stay. He is one of the five or six best golfers right now. He’ll win another major. My guess is he probably gets to four, which, my goodness, what a career for such a fascinating figure. I’m just not ready to proclaim him at the level of guys who can win three majors over the next few years. That’s rare territory.
Herzig: Over
Now more than ever, we have all the evidence to prove why DeChambeau has the chance to win several more majors before the end of his career. The evolution of how DeChambeau takes care of his body, for one, suggests a long playing career ahead. The lighter LIV Golf schedule has been transformative for his style of practice regimen — DeChambeau now has the added time to utilize 3D motion capture, fire up his AI-powered swing analysis technology and optimize his equipment. All of these changes already produced his best major season yet, aside from the missed cut at The Open, which I just don’t think is DeChambeau’s tournament anyway. I foresee DeChambeau being a force in the majors for years to come, especially as courses continue to get longer and narrower. His game is optimized for those changes.
Justin Thomas made positive strides in 2024. (Matt Stone / USA Today)Justin Thomas o/u 2.5 majors
Right now: 31 years old, 2 majors
Herzig: Over
I’m all in on Thomas, particularly in 2024. Thomas has seen a variety of lows over the past two years of his career: late-round major implosions, falling short of the playoffs, missing the Presidents Cup, etc. He has something to prove, and I’m confident that mindset will carry over into the majors, potentially as soon as next season. I’ve never doubted Thomas’ dedication to his craft. Love him or hate him, he has maintained that drive throughout his slumps by setting and sharing his season-long goals. I was struck by what Thomas shared at the Tour Championship in August: When asked about what changes worked for him this season, Thomas offered insight on his decision to have his dad, who doubles as his swing coach, take a step back at many tournaments. He’s putting an increased emphasis on personal accountability, and he’s not afraid to acknowledge it. His major performances have been volatile in recent years, but in my mind, Thomas’ stock shot up after that comment.
Miller: Over
I just don’t think I’m allowed to write a column this month saying I’m buying Thomas stock in 2025 and then say he can’t win another major. We have to remember he’s just 31, essentially the prime for many golfers, and he’s turning the corner after hitting rock bottom. The biggest problem for Thomas is that he’s becoming similar to his buddy Jordan Spieth in terms of having one or two rounds where he is playing the best golf at a major, but then following that up with a 76. In Royal Troon’s brutal conditions, he opened in second place after shooting a 68, only to drop to T31 by Sunday. Outside of a T8 at Valhalla, his past two years of majors are astoundingly bad by his standards, but that’s not news. We knew his 2023 was a disaster, and 2024 was a subtle improvement. I’ll say Thomas wins one more, maybe an Open Championship.
Rory McIlroy won another Race to Dubai title this week. (Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)Rory McIlroy o/u 4.5 majors
Right now: 35 years old, 4 majors
Miller: Over
OK, this is just a pure, simple probability play. It’s removing the emotion and going pure computer brain. You cannot be this absurdly good for this long and put yourself in contention this many times and not have at least one more break your way. Do I trust McIlroy? No. I fully bought in at St. Andrews. And LACC. And Pinehurst. We’ve all been burned too many times, and Pinehurst was the most severe. But people, please look at his past three years of majors. I’ll list them all because it’s that impressive: 2, 8, T5, 3; CUT, T7, 2, T6; T22, T12, 2, CUT.
He just won the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai. McIlroy is not going anywhere from his place as one of the three to four best golfers in the world. I cannot in my right mind say at least one won’t finally go his way. He’s good enough to win several more. We just know better than to say such a thing.
Herzig: Over
McIlroy is a world-class talent and has already put together a world-class record — let’s just start there. Four majors. Twenty-six PGA Tour wins. Eighteen DP World Tour wins. And his performances in the majors, even the ones he hasn’t won, have been nothing short of astounding, especially in the last three years as he ages into his mid-30s.
Still, the nearly 11-year-long major drought is concerning. Each year that McIlroy doesn’t win a major, the task gets taller. The scar tissue deepens. The more McIlroy wants it, the harder it’s going to get — as we’ve seen. Those two missed putts down the stretch at Pinehurst won’t just disappear from his memory bank.
That being said, I think McIlroy will squeak out one, maybe two more majors in his career. He’s still in his prime, with recent swing changes seeming to be very promising. He probably won’t win at the Masters or the U.S. Open. But I can see a PGA Championship or Open Championship in McIlroy’s future. And it will be quite the day for the world of golf.
Matt Fitzpatrick broke through and won the 2022 U.S. Open. (Aaron Doster / USA Today Sports)Matt Fitzpatrick o/u 1.5 majors
Right now: 30 years old, 1 major
Miller: Under
Fitzpatrick is the kind of guy who works so damn hard he’s going to have many iterations of his career and last for decades. Don’t take this comparison as solely because they’re both Englishmen, but I see a lot of Justin Rose in Fitzpatrick’s career. He had a terrible 2024, dropping to No. 56 on Data Golf with just seven top-20s in 25 starts, but I’m sure he’ll be back soon because he’s too smart and puts too much work in. So why am I saying all that and still going under? Because we’re in too good of an era and Fitz has only truly been in contention at two majors. He’ll make several more Ryder Cups and win plenty of tournaments, but at the end of the day, I can’t say everyone wins more majors.
Herzig: Over
Fitzpatrick will figure out his game again and win another major. The Englishman has battled a few injuries here and there and simply hasn’t been pleased with his play. But just remember the Fitzpatrick of 2022. It wasn’t long ago that he was throwing up results every week, with a brand-new force of power in his swing, and using statistics to create an advantage over the rest of the field. Fitzpatrick is known to tinker, and tinkering can result in some poorer stretches of golf. That’s where we are right now. But when the 30-year-old U.S. Open champion gets things back under control, I think we’ll see him win at another classic major venue with thick rough and small landing areas — Pebble Beach in 2027, for example.
(Top photo of Bryson DeChambeau: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
