2024 Open Championship DFS Preview – Picks, Strategy, Fades | The First Cut Podcast

Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme preview the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon from a DFS perspective with picks, strategy and fades.

Intro, Course Breakdown: 0:00
10k: 10:53
9k: 21:25
8k: 26:41
7k: 33:23
6k: 40:18
5k: 48:44

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ABOUT THE SHOW: The First Cut brings you everything you need to know in the world of professional golf. Nearly every day Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Mark Immelman, Greg DuCharme, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald bring you the best analysis in the game. From DFS to betting previews, interviews and recaps… everything golf is on the table when you listen to The First Cut.

freaking first cut [Music] golly oh welcome to the first cup podcast I’m Rick gavid and this is your DFS preview for this week’s open which is very very fun to say joining me to break it all down Greg duch is here hello Greg Rick uh very happy to be here very excited to discuss the final major championship of the year I Can’t Believe It’s the final major of the Year already um it’s just kind of Bittersweet but it is it is always exciting and we’re going to a great venue with a great field the best as good as it gets so I’m really looking forward to this one yeah I always try to remind people right now that we are basically seven days away from that the worst part of the Year where you go 260 some odd days before the next major so as if we weren’t G to soak this one in anyway really really soak it in because they go fast when they start but it is a very long time between now in April yeah and and look during this time this is the sweet spot so it’s a lot of fun and there’s a lot to play for and we’re we’re all kind of weigh in on it at this point uh and and there’s definitely a Slowdown coming after this of course we have the FedEx Cup playoffs and President’s Cup and things like that to look forward to which are great but ultimately these four tournaments are what it’s all about um and and there’s one last shot at glory which I think the old saying for the uh PGA Championship that’s right and then it became not the last shot at glory so they had to retire that shot at glory exactly so let’s not waste any more time let’s jump right on into this thing Troy if you want to share my screen we can run through it I’ve got my website up rickun good.com and as with most open championships Greg a lot of the storyline is the golf course and this time we go to Royal trun that is where we were in 2016 you probably remember it from the Henri Stenson Phil Mickelson duel where they were lapping the field over everyone signature holes let’s go with the postage stamp number eight uh which is a very very tiny green and coffin bunkers 11 will play as probably the most difficult hole potentially of the entire year but let’s start talking about what royal trun is what types of players might be able to find success here and and then we’ll get into the field GP okay so um first what what royal trun is uh it’s a very interesting test of golf that is kind of divided uh and I think it’s pretty clear in your um in the graphic that you have up on the screen here Rick that the front nine specifically the first six holes are very getable um the first three holes are par three or par fours that are under 400 yards you didn’t see a whole lot this in 2016 but you may this year where players actually are are driving the fronts of greens driving it right up near the Green in some cases I think that’s a very real possibility this year and you have to take advantage of the first six holes so after those um after those par fours you have two of the uh two of the three par fives on the golf course in number four and number six also on the front nine that being said those par fives are no picnic they are both over 600 yards well one’s 599 one’s 623 this year so they are um long par fives but they’re certainly still scoring opportunities but then things kind of take a turn you mention the difficulty at number 11 yeah and you look at this back nine I mean just just breaking down the scorecard I mean the on on the front nine you have five par five five par fours they’re all under 440 yards and number nine is 440 yards um and so all the previous par fours are much shorter than that well on the back nine you have six par fours they’re all over 450 yards three of them are over 470 um so it’s a really you what you’re going to see probably on Thursday and if you’re not waking up to watch the first t- shot there’s a very good chance you turn on the TV and you see somebody five under par through eight holes six under eight uh and then all of a sudden their name plummets off the leaderboard because the golf course changes dramatically as you get up into the sand dunes and as you start turning back toward the clubhouse the test of this golf course gets significantly more difficult so I think that’s a very interesting thing to watch um throughout this tournament so you’ve got the ability to to get some Strokes to par early and then hold on uh this is the first time I’ve done something like this for the correlation model Greg so we do have data there there was shotlink at the 2016 Open Championship so we do have a little bit of data we also what I also did for the first time is I took some other um I was a little bit cautious with this but I took some other Open Championship Rus setups I think Royal TR has its unique aspects to it obviously but I did take some other Roa style golf courses to to generate almost like a it’s almost like a projected correlation model over over the the normal weeks where we have 10 12 15 years worth of data and I don’t have to put my fingerprints on on anything at all and what the model uh really likes in and most Majors This Is Not Unusual is is a very solid ball striking very good T to Green play but you always see at open championships you always see around the green play um come into it a little bit more and I think that is because not only of Link style golf not only where you have golf uh holes with with a lot of runoff but those pot bunkers that protect a lot of the greens and Fairways um they really do ask for a uh a lot of creativity a lot of skill so anytime you model on Open Championship stuff around the green play seems to get a fairly significant boost yes and and the other aspect specifically here at TR which is different than every course in the open Roa um specifically St Andrews but but the greens here are not very large yes they may be on the smaller side and when you’re dealing with wind you’re dealing with small greens you’re dealing with penal rough what happens is a lot of greens are missed so the because you’re missing a lot of greens there’s a lot of opportunity to gain or lose Strokes around the greens yeah the cost caution I have with around the green play in an open specifically very different than a US Open per se is it’s it’s a different style of short game in many cases right the pop bunkers a great bunker player may not be a great bunker player in an Open championship for sure you know that when you’re chipping from these Fairways you may use a wedge but you may not you may be putting off the green a lot you may be using a more flat face Club you may be using a hybrid or a fivewood there are so many different options in the around the green play it it becomes and I’m not in any way saying it’s not important it I I just think it becomes a little more difficult to handicap when you’re typically looking at traditional short games yeah they’re all very they’re all very fair to I mean to even put just a recent um example in that column I mean Victor hin gains like four strokes around the green at St Andrews and it was because he pulled putter every single time he miss green right which is a it’s an option right um and and so some so I think that it allows for some variance in the type of player um I also think the TD green stuff leads to some variance in the type of player you know oftentimes in open championships you’re rewarded for putting the ball in the Fairway driving accuracy has a tendency of becoming more important than driving distance that’s different at St Andrews U but it could could very well be a factor here like it was a Factor last year at Royal Liverpool right so you know there are some difficult things to figure out I think this is one of the most difficult tournaments year-over-year regardless of the venue to handicap and predict uh I I don’t think at this point weather is going to be a huge Factor where you’re going to have a a massive swing in the draw there may be a slight Advantage um one way or the other but I I don’t think you’re see a huge Advantage based on what I’ve seen today on Monday um so but weather can absolutely play a role um so these things complicate the handicapping procedure and what I like to do when you’re dealing with complicated procedures like this is two things who’s playing well now that’s a really important aspect um and and also who has some pedigree in open championships on Links Golf I I think that is a very important aspect because some guys just don’t know how to play it they haven’t figured that out yet um whereas other guys seem to excel in this kind of environment well let’s start naming some names we will go through this field and find the Diamonds in the Rough the obvious ones the ones that we are more concerned about and we’ll do it all after a quick word from our [Music] partners ladies and gentlemen are you [Music] ready I [Applause] [Music] know and we’re back here is the cheat sheet and there are six golfers over $10,000 I will uh put in the qualifier as usual that these salaries did get released before the conclusion of the Scottish open so keep that in mind we’ve got Scotty sheffler leading the way at 12,800 Bryson dambo at 115 Rory maroy at 114 Xander Schley is 11,200 John Rah is 104 ludvig oberg is 101 it’s a major championship Greg all the big boys are here and they’re at the top of the board yes um and again going back to this is important to consider going back to Link’s golf Acumen I think it really Narrows this down in my mind right now to two players okay now I I don’t think I think there are more that are playable I just think it’s really hard to avoid both of these guys uh and that would be Scotty Sheffer and Rory mroy um I alluded to the Rory case last night but Scotty Sheffer just I mean this resume is just incredible and I can’t get over it this is a Prof so if I was doing testing on the website right and I just was just testing data this is the type of profile that I would load in right I want it to look really pretty and like look cool and I would take a screenshot of this and I would use it for marketing and all that fun stuff this is his actual stat profile it is just unbelievably green tons of winds it’s got just huge exaggerated stats it’s it’s unreal so so this is really I think what it comes down to Greg and I and you started doing this it might have been on Sunday night a apologize I don’t remember but you started making the case about how this could be different from Pinehurst and I think that that’s the big question right that’s the question that people are going to want to know when they click Scotty sheffer’s name for 10 $12,800 yeah I mean take a look at uh the when if you’re looking at this data one glaring piece of information that stands out that ruins your your marketing material Rick and it’s losing six Strokes putting at the US Open um but ever since he went to the Mallet putter which was uh the Arnold Palmer Invitational that’s the only event he’s lost Strokes put in it at Pinehurst he couldn’t read the greens they were extremely fast they got a little bumpy a little crusty at times they were extremely difficult and I I look at this Open championship and open championships in general and they tend to be more benign greens St Andrew is being an exception but they’re a little slower they’re small greens you hit a lot of greens you’re going to have a lot of good looks at birdie and there’s not a ton of break in them and I think that gives someone like Scotty sheffler a really big advantage in a strange way now his um his record in open championships is not spectacular um but it’s certainly not terrible right three he has three starts they’re all top 25s an eth A t21 and 22 and a t23 um last year where he really did struggle on the greens I still think that the anomaly is what happened at Pinehurst I think this is a different test on the greens I think it’s one that Sheffer will figure out so if you’re in this hey um it’s really difficult to handicap I want to get the ball Striker if you think driving accuracy is really important if you think short game is important if you think like it always is iron play is important yeah Scotty’s the guy and I think he’s shown enough putting Acumen to keep up if it’s a birdie Fest he doesn’t 3ut very often unless he’s at Pinehurst and so I think there’s a really strong case to be made that um that this tournament belongs to Scotty shuffler I believe that one of the things that indicates Green in regular ulation which I agree with you at an open with small greens that is more important than most places is distance control and Scotty’s distance control is second to none and even if he does Miss some greens he got the maybe the best short game in the world and when he gets on the putting surfaces and they’re slower than Pine Hurst and they’re smaller and they’re easier to read uh yeah I’m with you but the the the other man you mentioned is Rory mroy but but Greg he can’t handle the pressure he coughed it up on Sunday at Pinehurst we couldn’t possibly we could possibly go back to Rory I think you can go back to Rory oh okay it’s important and this is something I’d be doing if I were in Rory’s camp like let’s go to let’s go over to Rick rung good.com okay Rory I’ll I’ll send I’ll send him a log if he needs one him a login yeah get him those promotional codes yeah I mean I’d put a limit on it I wouldn’t let him look forever buto code and say all right you Afters which is kind of always a turning point for Rory mroy You’ basically contended every week You’ve Won twice you came in second in the US Open you came in tied 12th at the PGA Championship um you came and tied forth at the Scottish open and it felt like you had nothing right it felt like a poor play and and it’s tied forward you should have won that tournament you know it’s a it’s a wild place to be for Rory um again I go back to the same thing on the greens um I I think that that the greens like this benefit someone like Rory mroy his record in the open is extremely strong it may it may surprise you actually how strong it is since he won in 2014 he really has figured out Link’s golf I mean right after that it was a a T5 a T4 a T2 and he didn’t even get a chance to play in 2015 because he was hurt maybe that that soccer game he played maybe the biggest reason why it’s been 10 years since he’s won a major wow could you imagine right probably nine years but he wasn’t there um he came in third in 2022 tied six last year he has figured out how to play major championship golf uh and and like I said on Sunday there’s just nothing to lose whatever happens this week it’s not going to be as bad as Pinehurst uh it just can’t it cannot get any worse so you’re either going to be in the same position or you’re GNA have the best feeling you’ve had in 10 years maybe ever probably ever so I think it’s a really interesting place for Rory to be I think it’s a good place for him to be and I think um there’s ‘s nobody in the field more deserving of a of a major championship you know you were send if the RNA was taking resumés looking for the Open Championship winner and all you had to do was submit what you’ve done in the past and they were finding the you know most uh most qualified candidate it would be Rory mroy I I will just put a bow on Rory with this because I do like looking post um postm so this is everybody in the field since the Masters Scotty shler is gaining 2.7 Strokes per round Rory’s gaining 2.4 second best in the world and he’s done it in five more rounds than Scotty has so uh it has been despite despite the oxygen being spent on on telling us how how bad Rory mroy is H he is he is very very good um okay let’s assume that those two don’t exist how do we rank the other four which are dambo Rah ludvig and Xander in the top of this range um probably Xander dambo ROM now there’s a lot of attention on Bryson where does ludvic go in there sorry oh uh I think ludvig would go behind Bryson ahead of so Xander Xander Bryson ludvig ROM yes okay I think that’s what I would do gets a little murky down there right I I I don’t like where John ROMs heads spaces um I I love his record in the open which I think is great um but I’m not crazy about his year and I don’t know that that’s really gotten any better um I think it’s safe to say that his foot is better which is nice but his head space I I don’t know yet um so it’s probably dangerous to put him last Bryson has just been playing great goal but I don’t really like his open his links resume I think it’s a tougher test for him and if he hits those t- shots like he did at the US Open um where he’s missing Fairways like that he’s gonna have a much more difficult time here at this venue than he did at Pinehurst where it seemed like there was fortune on his side that’s just not an option here T T8 is his best Open Championship result outside of that he doesn’t have another top 30 which is it’s it’s a concern for me stylistically Xander has been great continues to play great and is extremely safe for kind of what we’ve been seeing lately top 10 top 15 kind of lock like T15 at the Scottish open he didn’t play great but he’s right there he’s won the Scottish open contended at Carusi I think he has the stuff to compete in an open um but open championships for him through his career have been kind of that it’s almost like a low-end Xander performance T15 t13 t18 that you know kind of finishes like that I think it’s very likely we get that at at the worst and there’s there’s a chance that he if he plays well he will finish top five no problem there is as you can imagine a very Stout 9k range in this field it start with Colin morawa Victor havland Terell Hatton and then it goes to Tommy Fleetwood Patrick Klay and Brooks Kea um not without some interesting names here Greg what what are we liking what are we staying away from this is a fascinating range yeah the 9k range so um colum morawa I I find impossible to ignore so he’s probably the top choice if you go with Sheffer and you get kind of pinched out on Colin I understand that although you can with a 5k range you can definitely get both in there Colin has Colin has Scotty’s profile but just in half the amount of time yes and if you look you know past the finishing position it looks a lot like that we just don’t have any ones there yet right but you know how I feel about that I mean this often means that there’s a one coming you put a one on the end of it and this has been what an incredible run of course this happened yeah we should have really impressed with this putter oh my God he’s been D I was was impressed with how he was so stoic and so confident and so locked in for 63 holes last week and you called it perfect he had that one double cross or whatever it was and he just like got the mon stars came and took all his talent you know what I mean it just it was so weird it was so weird he got spooked and just could not not finish that event off yeah and there there’s a little bit of concern there for me but I do think they’ll get that straightened out you take a or you finished the round you evaluate what happened I I don’t think there’s a better Coach suited to handle a situation like that than Rick cessing house so I do think he’ll come back ready to compete in this open so I would let those concern slip away this has been an incredible run and um yeah he’s hard to ignore unless you don’t think he can play in the win because we’re going to have some win I’ve I’ve given up on that I I I think he can play in Wind well okay so so what the way that I think this breaks down is I think you’re GNA get a ton of people clicking Colin morawa Terell Hatton Tommy Fleetwood and then they are going to have no idea what to do with Victor hland Patrick Klay Brooks kka all right um so I I think Patrick Klay is actually a very strong play and ownership aside I like where Patrick Klay is he’s kind of quietly he very quietly finished tied third at the US Open um and because of what happened with Rory and because Bryson won Patrick Klay was forgotten he almost won that tournament very late in the back9 had a chance to win that tournament um and then answered with the T5 at the Trav and has taken a couple weeks off and I think he comes in ready to go he’s played okay in Links Golf as well it hasn’t been spectacular but he does have a T8 in 2022 um t33 last year he came in tied 12th at Carusi as well so I think Patrick Klay is a a wonderful play it seems like we’re seeing like the real Patrick can’t lay back now this is the cheapest he’s been in about 18 months and he’s coming off his best two starts of the calendar year okay so a little bit of confidence in Klay you have any confidence in either Kea or hofland or are we just gonna avoid those two no I’m avoiding both of them I’m avoiding both of them I I think hatton’s very playable um ve very playable if he draws up too much attention I understand and in that case I would pivot to Patrick can’t lay which I may do anyway but I think tiell Hatton has shown that um he has what it takes to compete in Majors he came in tied fifth here back in 2016 and is having a great year he just won on the live tour in late June uh the US Open he played very well with the exception of a horrible putting performance on Sunday yeah and so I think Hatton is a a really strong play I think fleetwood’s a safe play if there’s a lot of ownership around him I’m happy to I’m happy to pass well it’ll be interesting because I think that those three more cah hatan and Fleetwood you I I don’t think you can play them all unless you start in the 9k range which I don’t think people are going to want to do with the six guys at the top so there is g to be some one of those three that you’re gonna have a little bit of a discount on um Hatton is trending to be the most popular one and done selection and uh that usually translates pretty well for DFS purposes although there is obviously the fact that he’s a live golfer and this is the last chance you get to use him but I think that Terell hatton’s name will be on the top of a lot of people’s minds we’ll see as the as the week goes on what those projected ownership numbers are and then the 8K range here Greg um slightly bigger and I think these are guys that are actually coming in in good form flying under the radar a little bit cam Smith Tony fow Hideki Matsuyama Tom Kim Shane Lowry Matt Fitzpatrick wendam Clark where do you want to start yeah yeah some really good options here um and I’d like to start with Tony feno 700 right I mean he has also quietly been just phenomenal I’m ready Greg you’ve been you’ve been prepping me for months for this moment and I’m I’m ready it is it is it is fale time he’s taken a long time to get to a place that I thought he was heading very early on in the year um he was close but it seems now like he’s starting to put it together he made an adjustment uh with his putter um on the greens the grip and the way that he holds it and and how level the putter is now and it’s so much better and it’s paying off uh and growing fashion and it’s led to T8 at the memorial T3 at the US Open T5 at The Travelers and he he could play in opens too he he played great at Royal Port Rush um back in 2018 he played really nice in 2021 at at uh at St Andrews as well he’s got a T9 in 2018 at Cary he has what it takes to play in these kind of events I don’t think that um the links Acumen is in question with Tony P now so looking at what he’s done recently yeah um sign me up on Tony yeah I’ve got the star I’ve got the star on him because I I agree with you the putter has been much much better and that was the one thing that was really holding him back so we’re we are ready to rock and roll I want to pull up cam Smith’s profile here I think that cam Smith actually I don’t think I know cam Smith is quite popular for the US Open this year I think people thought okay well he’s not really playing all that great but but maybe short game is going to be important at uh at Pinehurst he ends up finishing t32 just kind of an average maybe below average finish but I actually think this might be the better setup for him he’s he’s hitting it a little bit better the results are coming in on Liv it’s just one major championship later than everybody thought I think this is a a more interesting time to run out cam Smith yeah I I understand that for sure I wouldn’t um criticize you for playing him this week I I worry personally about his driving accuracy I think there are some venues where you get away with that I I don’t think you get away with it at a venue like this um St Andrews is is the Open Championship that he won and he played great and the fairways are gaping wide other than that is best finishes a T20 he’s got a couple of other top 35s but it’s not like this is a stellar Open Championship resume um so I I think given that it’s St Andrews and very different than other links courses in the Roa his Link’s golf proficiency maybe at least the perception of it is a little higher than it actually is so I I have my concerns with Cam Smith where where else in this 9k range or excuse me 8K range would you prefer to go uh Tom Kim Tom Kim is definitely a player I got Tom Kim and one other guy um so Tom Kim’s been driving the ball great I don’t think distance is a huge Factor here in open championships uh he shot a great round on Sunday at the Scottish open to put up a very respectable T15 finish was disappointing if you’re like me and you hav’t been one and done um but ultimately I I think it was a pretty solid performance out of him um the the ball striking has been great I I rule out the rocket mortgage I think he just played too much golf I think he’s rested now and ready to go and you know a kind of a rising star on the links um he really is T2 last year in the Open Championship great record at at the Scottish open as well I I think it’s weing for a good Tom Kim week he’s made one two three four five cuts in a row at major championships all of them inside the top 30 five five top 30s in his last six Majors the only place he missed the cut was when he jumped into the mud at the PGA Championship that was there right Southern Hills was it Southern Hills I thought it was I thought it was oakill was it o it might have been oakill I think it was oakill because I think I was in the media center when he did oh okay yeah that would make more sense uh yeah that’s the only place he miss the yeah no you’re right he has a lowkey like very good um Link’s history very good major history and he is much better now than he was when he started off 2024 in kind of a wonky fashion who was who was the other guy Tom Kim and one other yeah wam Clark uh I thought it might be Windom the backto back top 10 yeah and the price I mean yeah look you you could argue and I would hear you out that he has the same issue as cam Smith with inaccuracy off the te um but I could see Windham Clark going to a very reliable 290 yard Stinger with a long iron all week long and I could see that working very well for him I think he is too talented to be $8,000 flat especially coming off at two top 10s back to back one of them being at the Scottish open on in Links Golf so I’m very impressed with Windham very impressed with his put in performance um in general and lately if you look at what he’s done in opens he has a t33 a t76 he’s he’s puted terribly in both 2023 two and 2023 I’m wondering if you figured something out last week gaining over six and a half Strokes on the greens um I I think it could be a sneaky play to get Windham Clark in there Windham Clark $8,000 uh rare it has been rare to get him at at that price over the course of the past couple years since he started winning at a more frequent clip we’re going to continue this conversation we got to get to the sevens and Below but first we’re going to take a quick break and hear a word from our partners we you need your sports news anywhere we’ve got breaking news to bring you then get your sports anytime you want them big trade news overnight to discuss because we know you need Sports all the time a lot of movement in the rankings this week a legend adds to their legacy we’re bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ CBS Sports HQ anywhere anytime all the time and we’re back the 7,000 range oh mama at the top Jordan spe Walken Neiman Robert McIntyre the middle of the range that’s your cam young Justin Thomas and then the bottom of this range is OA Patia Matthew Pavone I will also note the three late ads to this field have have I’ve just added them to the website they are in now Aaron Ry is 7300 Alex noren is 7200 and who was the third one uh Roma langas or was he already in I thought he was already in oh man I now I got to look it up sorry I’m derailing us oh Manel Richard Manel that’s right he shot like a he like shot the course record on Sunday he is $5,900 so there you go uh what do you want to do in the 7K range GRE I actually I like the 7K range I think there’s some good options here um I think I think we got to start with Cam young um cam young has shown an incredible proficiency to compete in Majors um we know that he’s competed in PGA championships he’s competed in Masters he’s competed in US opens he’s competed uh in the Open Championship as well nearly winning at St Andrews and I know this is a very different test than St Andrews but it’s also really important to note that he came in tied eth last year at Royal Liverpool very different test than St Andrews last year wasn’t a great year for him and he he still figured out how to play well but this time he’s coming off a T9 at The Travelers a T6 at the rocket mortgage classic he’s hitting the ball great uh and seems to have the putter in a more you know understandable um spot a spot with a little more potential so I love what I’m seeing from cam young and to get somebody with the kind of Firepower that he has at at 75 00 I think is just a great deal yeah he’s done he’s done a nice job of writing the ship this year so um I’ll be interested to see what he does I I think that he’s laying a couple breadcrumbs down I’m I’m interested I’m interested cautiously um what else do we do here um I’m I’m also interested well I think Aaron Ry is still playable for all the same reasons that we mentioned last week um even talked about it on Sunday plays such a steady game he’s coming in off of three top 10s five straight top 20 finishes Aaron Ry very could very well play a factor in this tournament he’s look look at the putting numbers crit he’s gained three four and a half nine and 5.7 in his last four yeah and and this is all after switching coaches right so there’s like a significant reason why this happened and I don’t see any reason why it would stop now you know he’s so deliberate and and he is very understanding of what it what it takes to make something work I think that bodess really well for Aaron Ry um so he’s one for sure the other that may be more surprising Rick is uh Corey Connors okay so Corey Connor sounds safe you may feel like you never get anything out of him but I mean it’s been very consistent Tia green as it always is and you’re starting to see a couple of popup events where he really putts well like at the Canadian open he puted great at the US Open he puted great and and last week at the Scottish open he puted great as well I think his style of play being the plotter that he is could really play well here at um at Royal TR yeah I mean even you know any of these go go gain Two Strokes with the Putter and let’s I I’ll take my chances for uh the rest of Cory of Cory Conor’s game then you’ve got you know we don’t need to spend any Oxygen on it but maxom $7,300 just going to need to see anything out of him um as we continue to go down this list though you’ve got guys like like that H zator dun Dustin Johnson who are probably historically low priced alongside guys headed in the opposite direction sep straa AA Patia and we’ll get to Davis Thompson in a second he’s 6,900 um yeah the the zalot Taurus and and DJ scenario is I I can’t get behind um there’s a reason their price this low yeah it’s been it’s been bad it’s been really bad so I’m staying away there sep straa I’m interested in even though since the um Memorial it’s kind of cooled off for him but I don’t think it’s cooled off in a bad way where he’s lost something I think he keeps it simple enough uh I I think he’s ready to go contend in major championships he came in tied second in in in the Open Championship last year and and I think he could go do it again this year so sep’s definitely on my radar but who you know who I’m really fascinated with who I think is very underpriced is AE batia I have a star next to his name Greg yeah I mean sign me up look the guy t22 at the memorial T6 at the US Open T5 at The Travelers T2 at the rocket mortgage classic he’s yeah and for one of the younger players he’s obviously extremely young but um you think of the young guys being bombers he’s he’s not a he’s not short he’s not a bomber he’s extremely accurate off the te it makes him a great driver of the golf ball he is a shot maker with his irons especially he can flight it low with the best of them he can hit it high he he’s got he could work it both ways he’s got shots that you need in major championships uh and and what he’s done with the putter in the last three weeks well um that’s been a huge difference maker for him plus two plus four and a half plus 3.8 I I agree with you what’s the guy got to do he’s $7,000 he has priced so we’ve got OE who’s got four straight top 25s he’s won this year cheaper than will zot Tores who hasn’t mustered a top 40 in four months I understand there’s a pedigree difference but come on come on come on so I I think OE is heading in the direction of that kind of pedigree you know in one day I think you’ll see him never price this low again you know so it’s a it’s a steal in my opinion on Ox let’s roll on $6,000 range the top the $6,900 golfers those are Davis Thompson Jason day Justin Rose Sun JM the 6,500 golfers the middle Adrien [ __ ] Billy horel Jordan Smith uh Rasmus hoard Tom McKibbon the $6,000 even golfers Roma langas padrick Harrington Maverick mcney Matthew Southgate Lucas Glover Amano gillo I wasn’t gonna name them all I did yeah um all right what what do you want to do here Greg well um SJ unbelievable s 69 $6,900 three straight top 12s five in his last six six in his last eight any issues seven of his last 10 top 12 finishes the three the three that have not been have all been miss Cuts Greg and they’ve all been major championships it’s a concern it’s absolutely a concern um you know a buddy of mine was s to me as lineups he’s in this contest with his buddies collision at the US Open he’s got sunj like you know I I don’t know I I wasn’t really all that in on sunjay at this time and then sunj is playing really poor he’s like sunjay has just such a capacity to play absolutely terrible anytime I play him so I had I had a little laugh about that um he did finish T20 in the open last year the major resume is not uh as strong as his non- major resume I think there’s absolutely reason for concern there but this is really hard to ignore for me because it’s it’s the sunjay way you’re starting to see the ball striking really come back into form and if you look before the US Open Rick I mean he wasn’t really gaining Strokes proficiently with his iron play at all I I think he was doing a lot of the work in the good weeks uh on and around the greens and and that test it it just puts more and more pressure on your short game and your putting if you’re not hitting it well in majors and right now sunjay is hitting the ball a lot better so I do think there’s a difference between what we’ve seen over the last three starts for sunjay and what we saw heading into the three Majors that he missed the cut in so I I think this is the the major for sunj to turn it around and you at least make the cut I’ve been tracking salaries for the last six years and I only have one instance of sunj being cheaper than he is right now that was the 2018 PGA Championship he was $6,500 he was a full he was a full-time corn fairy player at the time yeah yeah and and he’s coming in on this kind of form very surprising maybe they know something we don’t but I’m probably gonna play them if it’s a trap I’m walking right into it because I love what I’m seeing uh you get a couple of guys who played well last week before the salaries came out Louis usay in T4 live golf Andel Lucia Adam Scott nearly gets himself into a playoff and finishes runner up at the Genesis open I’m th I’m just throwing some bait here you don’t have to take it but where else we headed in this in the 6K range yeah I I do think Louis is interesting and playable um but I’m much more interested at the same price in SEIU Kim who has been I think quite good lately um he hasn’t popped off and given us some real contention of late but he’s been very steady he’s been very consistent um he’s played well at the open in 2022 he came in tied 15th um really his best Open Championship performance but but I think there’s a a good chance we get a pretty good sewo this week as well yeah here’s Louis’s profile just uh showed he he withdrew from Houston live golf Houston but other than that he’s put together a lot of really good performances hasn’t won lot of three runner-up finishes this year no wins that is vintage vintage Louis usas you take a runner up this week that’s for sure for sure I mean for any of these guys at at this price then you start to get into that mix of are they DP World Tour players are they PGA Tour players you’ve got Tom hogi 6400 Tom m kibbon who I’m I’m ready to go right back to at 65 anybody else tickling your fancy here in kind of the bottom part of the 6K range yeah I I think Tom mckibben’s a good call you can go right back to him I also like Rasmus hoard quite a bit he he finished t-21 at the Scottish open last week has been hitting the ball great uh on on the DP World Tour and you know maybe he’s headed for the PGA Tour to join his brother um but but he has looked very good lately and and a really strong performance he did beat his brother um Nikolai who’s a little more expensive this week last week so I think you’re going to see a good performance at of Rasmus um and and then I also think Rick all the way down here near the bottom of this range is Roma langos um you know I think where yeah he’s at 6,000 flat I mean he’s a great play he was a he has put together some really strong performances he played obviously unbelievable golf last week at the Scottish open with a great Sunday um but but I really think that uh he’s just a really talented player who’s playing some very good golf right now who’s made three out of four Cuts in in the Open Championship and came in tied 33rd last year so I also think he’s improving I thinkable I think the the one takeaway is um that third place finish at the Scottish was was not a huge outlier I mean he plays he plays a lot of great golf he finished T9 the week before that the BMW International open he’s got a couple other top five finishes on the DP World Tour this year he’s he’s he’s an accomplished player we just don’t see him on the PGA tour but once or once or twice a year maybe gets himself into a major championship or so but he’s a very very talented player and he’s playing great right now so I I agree with you the the $6,000 range um you know instead of taking a chance on padrick Harrington who’s who’s kind of beaten up on the old guys on the on the senior tour I think I’d prefer langas who’s uh doing it on a on a bigger stage right or Tiger Woods or Phil mikkelson right I mean Henrik senson these guys are all priced higher than him we are uh I joke that we’re contractually obligated to talk about tiger anytime he’s in the field doesn’t happen often I don’t I don’t I don’t want I don’t want anything to do with this I don’t either um I will say just to make it worth talking about I have always long thought that the Open Championship was the best venue for Tiger to compete in in a major championship I don’t think this one is all that different it’s not particularly hilly it’s not particularly long he knows how to play Link’s golf it’s a thinking man’s golf but ultimately I just think it’s too hard for him to hold on to uh over the course of four rounds but it wouldn’t surprise me if you saw tiger get off to a great start Thursday yeah I think that’s the the most likely scenario in my opinion is Tiger gets inside the top 20 on Thursday on Friday he makes the cut by a shot and then he ends up finishing last of the guys who made the cut that is like the the most likely scenario yeah sadly because we’ve seen before right it’s it’s not a deterioration of his skill set right deterioration of the body correct it just doesn’t last um so yeah that’s disappointing hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle I’ll watch it but I’m not putting them in my fantasy lineup that’s for sure the $5,000 range take your pick from Ben Griffin Brendan Todd John Catlin at the top the middle Jorge Campo Sean Crocker and oh Zack Johnson $5,500 Min price who do we got down here oh Todd Hamilton Justin Leonard John Daly those are some familiar names down at the absolute bottom $5,000 yeah Todd Hamilton and Justin Leonard both winners here at Royal TR I actually have let’s see what let’s see what Todd Hamilton has been up to I can’t imagine he’s playing no yeah okay he’s played the last two Senior PGA champion chips he’s missed the cut in both of them he’s not making it into the lineup that’s what he’s um this 5K range has some legitimate players right I mean McKenzie Hughes is in here Nick Taylor’s in here the these are legitimate players the first player that caught my attention was Matthew Jordan yeah that was a good call that was a good call on him last week t26 for him he’s been hitting the ball great uh so a lot of those same reasons he actually didn’t even hit the ball as well as he has been last week but saved it with some really good short game really good putting um could be another sign to come but I think he’s played some very good golf I think there’s a very good chance it continues he also came in tied 10th last year the Open Championship I remember that um so yeah he’s a he’s a 5k option I think there’s a couple other maybe their stretches um but let’s see oh here we go at 55 00 Shan Crocker okay uh caught my attention a little bit he finished tied third at the Italian Open tied 20th at the uh BMW International PGA and actually tied 21st at the KLM open he did miss the cut at the Scottish but he lost eight and a half Strokes putting so if you’re thinking there’s going to be a turnaround I think other than that his game is warranted a very real possibility of him making the cut at 5,500 it’s all he can ask for I got a guy okay 5400 Mato Monero yes he’s on my list too he was my third guy in the 5K range nine Strokes on approach last week finished T15 has two top 10 in his last three starts on the European tour he’s actually got four top 25s in his last five starts on the European tour he won in March he’s he’s having a great year he is knocking the cover off the golf ball yeah um I was following him this week because we talked about him on this show last week I think in the 5K range last week as well he was 5700 5700 right and all of a sudden it it pays off T15 he was on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday he was early in the day he was in like the third to last group so run it back 5,400 run it back I will just take uh I mean listen if you want to go out and finish T8 that’s fine but I I will accept a t23 from you mat okay I’ll I’ll give him even a little more slck I’ll accept the t32 okay yeah both both would be fine that he might be however I I might if I was desperate go down to yeser yesper senson the other senson at 5,300 but I believe that uh Mato is probably the lowest I’ll will go all absolutely and I’m not even sure that I’ll go that low I mean I could make Matthew Jordan might be the lowest that I go at 58 at the same time Mato and Matthew Jordan are I think pretty it’s not like Matthew Jordan’s a much better player than manaco I could argue that they’re prices should be flopped flipped flopped whatever you want to call it flocked I uh any chance I can take a look at John Daly’s profile I will I will take advantage of that so he’s in the field here’s what that looks like it is very very red yep he’s losing Strokes all right Craig anything else butd I I don’t think I have anything else I guess look keep an eye on the weather um it’s always an important thing and I have a little weather report that I was looking at earlier today um there is perhaps a late early Advantage it looks like the winds are going to be pretty similar throughout the day on Thursday um South Winds 12 to 20 miles an hour the 20 those are kind of your gusts looks pretty similar throughout the day um for at least when most of the players will be on the golf course Friday the winds in the afternoon look like they could really pick up and get quite Gusty up to like you know 30 mil an hour uh in the afternoon so that’s something to watch as we get closer are they still projecting rain you know if you if you look on weather.com it does say rain like 50% chance of rain kind of throughout the week but if you look on windfinder I know you like that website I do too yeah it kind of has very small amounts of rain in very small windows that don’t really seem to be during the play playing hours so something to keep an eye on it does look like it’ll be cloudy but it doesn’t look like it’s going to really Rain much when they’re playing but I don’t think it’s going to be a firm and fast Golf Course do you know sometimes when they say it’s a 50% chance of rain sometimes that means there’s a 50% chance of rain where you are like a 50% likelihood or it means that it is going to rain in 50% of the forecasted area I did not know that yeah it’s really once you once I learned that I now I don’t know what any like I don’t know what the percentages mean anymore it’s it’s weird how did you learn how did you learn that somebody like told me and then I looked it up so um chance of precipitation wow yeah I know it stinks that is horrible news I know so um yeah it’s the so I guess I guess there’s different ways to do it but the indicated area gets kind of split up in terms of the the likely or is it going to rain in what percentage of the indicated area so if you’re in New York City and you get a 50% chance of rain yeah Uptown it’s going to range downtown it’s not in theory yeah mid half of midtown’s good half of midtown’s out no ring fascinated changes everything so so there is a different meteorology uh analytic are there are there are there weather analytics like people doing YouTube videos of like well they nailed it again in Southern California um should be he look he’s the best meteorologist in the country there’s something called probability of precipitation which I think is I believe that is closer to like that’s what you think that it is yeah I think so it might rain it might not yeah but but chance of rain I think is I don’t know man but it’s weird and I don’t like it I don’t even know if I I might just pretend that that never happened just wipe that from your brain I wish I never look at the weather in my area neither do I where I live you should though you get different weather I know but it doesn’t change what I do what if you need an umbrella I don’t I don’t yeah I don’t need an umbrella if playing golf which is rare I may check not always May um if I’m looking at a tournament like this I will look at the weather in Scotland but I don’t look at the weather in Connecticut hard really less than three times a year I’ll look at the weather I if you go to like yeah my weather underground or whatever all my recents are just it’s like silvus Illinois tour schedule um and I guess for you if you’re never gonna take an umbrella you’re never GNA be surprised by an outlier temperature day like it’s not gonna go from 80 to negative2 you’re G to gradually you you you can feel it’s getting colder yeah and I do wear like at the studio I work in is very cold so even in the middle of summer I’m wearing a quarter zip and in the dead of winter it’s freezing cold I’m wearing a quarter zip anyway because I just got to get in the car drive there go in and then at that point if I go outside after work well I I’m outside I know what it is so I’ll go put a coat a different coat on or peel a layer you know so I just NE I never have a need to look if you need to know the weather just go outside you’ll just find out best way to tell we will be back believe it or not Tuesday Wednesday Thursday twice on Friday Saturday and Sunday for all your Open Championship needs for now big thanks to producer Troy does all the hard work behind the scenes that right there is Greg du you can find them on Twitter at the real gfd and you can find me Rick rungood this has been the first cut we’ll catch you next time [Music]