Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Open Championship at Royal Troon Golf Club on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
1:09 – Scottie Scheffler
2:21 – Tommy Fleetwood
3:25 – Bryson Dechambeau
4:25 – Patrick Cantlay
5:48 – Corey Conners
8:10 – Rasmus Hojgaard
9:32 – Collin Morikawa
12:00 – Akshay Bhatia
13:23 – Austin Eckroat
14:24 – Russell Henley
16:02 – Romain Langasque
16:49 – Si Woo Kim
17:59 – Tony Finau
20:10 – Alex Noren
20:55 – Cameron Young
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welcome to links and locks action betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy laack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartor for these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the British Open before we dive into this week’s episode or a reminder that the linkx and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with that than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we’re on the first te here for our British Open Best Bets get us started yeah so I’ve uh laid off uh laying the chalk and choosing the favor in the past five or six tournaments but now that he’s back I am going to go back and do it and that’s Scotty sheffler 5 to one at bet MGM of course lamest bet you can make on the board but I was actually pretty shocked that he opened at 5 to1 I made it uh as more of like 4 to1 or plus 425 so I think anyone anywhere above 475 is going to be a pretty playable number for him as ridiculous as that sounds for someone at a major championship but he’s it’s repetitive to say at this point because everyone knows what he’s been doing but he’s won six of his past 10 tournaments he’s an extremely Elite company historically if he’s going to keep this rate up and even the times he hasn’t won the four other non- wins over that 10 tournament stretch he finished second second eth and 41st so obviously the 41st wasn’t a great performance but even the three other times that he didn’t win he was right there and um outside of the US Open he has gained true Strokes putting in nine of those 10 tournaments and as we know that was like his biggest flaw um entering this season and if that part of his game is figured out there’s just really nothing stopping him in terms of his ceiling and his potential so again I I thought this number was going to be four and I wouldn’t have taken it at four but when I saw five to one and that was good enough for me to take Scotty I’m gonna go with Tommy Fleetwood to lead off my uh my outright card at 25 to1 I know he’s been a bit of the uh proverbial brid made in a lot of these major championships but I just think if there’s ever a spot for him to break through it’s going to be in the British Isles uh he’s had so much success at these open venues in the past he finished 10th at Liverpool last year third at Royal Port Rush fourth at St Andrews uh I love his combination of accuracy off the tea and Elite approach play he is playing some great golf at the moment I know that his putter derailed him a bit on Sunday at the Genesis Scottish open but he still gained over two strokes off the D he still gained over two strokes on an approach I think the name of the game here at Royal trun is you want to identify players that are in great recent form that have a strong resume track resume of success on lengths golf courses that are very accurate drivers of the golf ball Tommy Fleetwood checks all of those boxes for me hopefully this is the week he breaks through with the big one that would be awesome I’d be a big fan of that um outcome happening uh my second out right guy is going to be Bryson to Shambo at 16 to1 and the reason I like this play more so than even just the number itself is where he is on the odds board so he’s longer to win than Rory Xander and ludvig and with all du respect to those guys there obviously all these guys should be in the same conversation but in my opinion I have uh I rate Bryson as higher than those three guys right now and that is not what the odds are saying um I just think he’s maybe still not getting quite the respect he deserves among the elite of the elite because he’s just over on live and people aren’t really watching him unless he’s over on the majors um but with that said we just saw win the US Open and what I liked about that in terms of comparing it to this week yes obviously piner’s completely different type of course but it’s a it’s I think it’s going to be very very difficult to score this week and that was the case at pinus as well so Bryson proved that he can win a major when it’s a low scoring one at that and I think that’s the type of golf we’re going to see this week and that’s why I think if based on what he did at the US Open he can replicate that and also win this tournament this week I’m going to go with another player that was uh in the mix at Pinehurst and and Patrick Klay 45 to1 I just thought that this was a great number I couldn’t really understand for the life of me why he was so high coming off a contending performance at the US Open coming off another fifth place finish at The Travelers I think the thing that we’ve been looking for for Klay over the last couple of years we know that he has the ability to get hot and win a lot of these PGA Tour events we really want to see him hit some shots of consequence in a major championship and we finally saw him feel that heat of the battle and Pinehurst and I know he didn’t go out and win the fit thing and play better than Rory or Bryson but he didn’t really eject either like he hung tough on that back nine on Sunday and had many chances to win he had a couple putt slide right by the edge or he really could have been the one holding that trophy on Sunday at Pinehurst I think those reps In the Heat of the battle that experience coming down the stretch on Sunday in a major championship is going to pay major dividends for him in the future and hopefully is a jumping off point um in his career trajectory at major championships so mainly just a number play I thought 45 to1 was far too high on a player of K L’s caliber in this form yeah absolutely love that I can’t remember last time we’ve seen him at a number like 45 to1 um that brings me into my next guy I’m going to go a little deeper down the oddport and that’s going to be Corey Connor at 80 to1 so I talked about him last week as well as well but he’s just one of the best ball Strikers in this field and I think ball striking at absolutely going to be the name of the game this week um so that is just my opinion on itself makes 81 too good to pass up on someone who I think is a top five ball striker in this field Conor has made the weekend 26 consecutive tournaments with 14 top 25 finishes over that trash so it’s not like he can’t compete yes he’s never won a major and he’s only won two tour events but I think if he is to win a major it’s something it’s going to come to fruition a venue that’s going to be such a ball striking heavy venue and also he finished Ninth at this year’s Us open again going back to pin so he proves that he can compete against these High Caliber fields in low-scoring events which again is what I think we will see this week so again just he’s such a good ball Striker and with how that is going to be the likely path to success this week I like Connor is at 80 to one uh I agree with you I don’t know if I have the confidence in him to win the golf tournament I took him as a top 10 selection at plus 650 as opposed to the outright but I’m right there with you I think that this is going to be a great tournament for Cory Connor I mean he’s coming off a Ninth Place finish at the US Open he just finished top 10 at the Scottish open as well and one of the things I talked about a little bit earlier and this really mirrors what was happening with Brian Harmon last year leading into that Open Championship is that some of these more unheralded players at longer odds that are just in great recent form and are incredibly accurate drivers of the b ball golf ball and are great approach players that is exactly what Cory Connor is like there are a lot of similarities between the skill set that Brian Harman had what we were seeing from Brian Haron in terms of his recent form and in terms of what Cory Connors is displaying right now as well I think the thing that I would add is that seems like he’s figured out something from a short game and putting perspective like he is chipping and putting the ball incredibly well of late I think that he has a lot more success maybe a lot easier of an A Time on slower greens he puted very well again last week at the Scottish open he’s been chipping the ball really well too gaining around the green and four straight starts so I’m with you man Cory Conor’s plus 650 top 10 I think he’s going to have a big week this week at TR I think so too I’m glad we’re on the same page with him my final outright is gonna be a bit of a d throw which I obviously have to do when I have Scotty and Bryson on the card but um my final guy is gonna be Rasmus hoard at 175 to one so obviously big number here but he’s one of the best players already on the European tour and he’s just 23 years old and in terms of potential I think he’s going to be a guy that’s going to be has a potential to be a contender at um major championships do I think he will actually contend and win this one probably not but I think it’s a little more likely than 175 to one would suggest he is he has 13 top 25 finishes over his past 21 tournaments between both the European tour and the few events he’s played over here on the PGA tour and a lot of that success his ability to bomb off the te and follow that follow it up with a strong approach game we keep talking about ball striking that’s important the one thing that holds me back B him and we talked about accuracy already but is his accuracy off the te the reason why I think he can get away with it this week at least get away with it enough is because at the Genesis Scot open last week he was right at the field average in accuracy off the te and that resulted him finishing in 21st if he can just maintain at least just relative accuracy he’s going to be gaining distance over people for sure and his approach game is just as good as many of the Young tour guys so again just at 175 to1 do I think he wins this week probably not but I think the price is that’s just a good D thr at that price love that yeah I’m going to take us back into the top 10 market and go with one of the players that just missed my outright card in Colin morala plus 190 top 10 I was really looking for a way to include him this week I he was hanging around at 20 to1 earlier in the week now he’s all the way down to 146 to1 which is probably where he should have been I just missed out on the top on the 20 to1 so I’ll probably just setle for exposure to him in the top 10 Market but I just love the way that morala is playing right now I think the way that he’s getting it done is incredibly sustainable he’s doing it with a far more balanced attack than we’ve seen from moraca in the past previously you know this was a player that we could always count on for his accuracy off the te and his Elite approach play but this is some of the best chipping and putting that we’ have seen from Colin morawa in quite some time and I think based on the way that he’s chipping and putting right now that’s significant gley raises his for I think he is outside of Scotty Scher and maybe Rory mooy maybe the most likely player to be relevant in this golf tournament based on the floor that we are seeing from both his ball striking and his chipping and putting right now based on his prior success in open championships Colin morala plus 190 top 10 so that’s a good transition cuz I was looking at him the same exact way I wanted to back him so badly this week and I just did not love 161 on the right so I have him in the first round leader Market at 33 to1 so he ranks second on tour of the season first round scoring average only Trail Scotty in that uh department and um this course’s profile is well from workout you talked about already the accurate ball striking especially off the T that is going to play a huge role this week and he knows how to he obviously knows how to navigate link style courses but not only that it’s just he’s a two-time major Champion it’s not like he can’t compete against these guys or at this level we’ve seen it all year already he won the 2021 British Open so you know he can win overseas as well we know the steeling is there that there’s no question it’s does he have the finishing I think he ABS has the finishing again top 10 top five so that’s why I like your bet as well but he still has not won in quite a while not since last year Zozo I don’t think so I just don’t trust him in the outright Market at 16-1 for a guy who just has not finished despite being in the top five top 10 but I do trust him for sure to have the ability to lead after Thursday and at the end of the day he will probably be around there on Sunday as well I’m going to go with I’m going to take us into the top0 market and go with OE Patia plus 400 top 20 I know that this is ox’s uh First Open championship appearance but like we were talking about with Colin morawa I actually think there’s a lot of similarities there we’ve seen the modern pro golfer this young younger newer generation of pro golfer been able to not really necessarily have to have that length experience that we’ve always thought that you needed at the Open Championship to break through I mean very similar to marawa OE is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball and he’s a great overall approach player um and he’s he’s got a really great short game and he he’s got some upside with the putter as well he’s a really well-rounded player he’s got the well-rounded skill set that I think you need at an Open Championship that’s really booed by the strength of his accuracy off the T and his overall Ro play which was kind of that exact same skill set that we saw from Colin morala leading into his 2021 Open Championship victory at Royal St George’s without you know having any Open Championship experience in the past I don’t know if I’m quite as bullish on on oxay to win the whole thing but plus 400 to finish top 20 I think we get a very very strong performance from the 22y old love it I’m going to keep us in that exact Market I’m going to go after Austin ekro top 20 at uh 7 to one so at 25 years old ekro delivered his breakthrough tour performance with his win at the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches earlier this season when you include that performance he has made the weekend in 11 of his past 14 tournaments and a large part of the success is due to his accurate ball striking he has gained true Strokes on the approach in five consecutive tournaments while also remaining more accurate off the te than the field average in four of those five events not only is he capable of winning on tour which he proved okay let me rephrase that so he won on tour right but that was a pretty weak event we field he’s still capable of posting a top 20 finish at a major championship he finished 18th at this year’s PJ championship and 10th at last year’s US Open do I think he has the uh ceiling to reach that win like he did the cognizant no because his Field’s gonna be a million times harder but I do think his ceiling does include a top 20 finish I think that is capable for guy whose games only continuing to improve so at 7even to one ekro top 20 is that is that play love that play I’m going to give one more top 20 I’ve got a top 20 a top 40 first on later and then one more outright I want to hit on as well uh but my final top 20 is Russell Henley plus 400 uh to finish in the top 20 and it kind of goes along with the very similar skill set that I’ve already talked about with OE batia that I’ve already talked about with Cory Connors that you know I’ve already talked about to a certain extent as well with moraca and Fleetwood too um Henley is just an incredibly accurate driver of the ball he’s a great overall approach player he’s got a sneaky St strong major resume like he’s really started to show some more form in these major championships he finished seventh at Pinehurst and I know that his open form may leave a lot to be desired but he really checks that box that I’m looking for that we we saw out of Harmon last year with just who is a player that is a very accurate driver of the ball keeps the ball in play off the tea avoids trouble this is going to be a golf course with a very high Mis faway penalty happens to have an awesome short game Henley is one of the best bunker players in this field I think that’s going to matter tremendously around the greens a lot and it’s just a great overall approach player very solid short to Middle iron player will be able to take advantage of the scoring holes on the front nine good enough long iron player to hang tough on the back nine holes as well I just think this is a really good golf course fit for Russell Henley and he checks a lot of the boxes that I’m looking for and that we’ve seen from open Champion champions in the past in terms of their accurate driving and overall approach play yeah I I love that I got another top 20 guy as well and that’s Roma langas at uh plus 750 now this is obviously the biggest example of recency bias that we’ve probably ever had in our show but he just finished third that last week’s uh Genesis Genesis Scottish open so just why not ride the hot hand he has finished inside the top 10 in four of his past nine events now granted most those were over on the European tour against fields that are going to be nothing compared to what we see this week but he has made the weekend in six of his seven career major championship appearances and he’s now playing the best golf of his career so if he’s flirted with this uh finishing position before against these types of fields and considering he’s the hottest he’s ever been in his professional golf career then I don’t see why it’s not worth at least taking a Dar thr on him to finish inside the top 20 at plus 750 I’m going to take us to the top 40 market and take a player that is you know very similar to the skill set that I’ve have already outlined many times in this podcast already in terms of accuracy off the T and overall approach play that’s sewu Kim plus 145 to finish in the top 40 uh this is another guy that has that exact same skill set and we saw it on full display on Sunday at the Scottish open when he shot eight underpar one of the best rounds on the entire golf course he gained over four strokes on approach that day um he’s won big events in the past before right we are talking about the winner of The Players Championship another golf course that obviously there a lot of aesthetic differences and agronomical differences in terms of Royal trun and TPC sagras but in terms of the required skill set of overall approach play keeping the ball in play off the te both golf courses that I expect to have an incredibly High Miss Fairway penalty seiw Kim consistently raises his Baseline on these types of golf courses plus 145 top 40 I think he’s going to have a great week I love his course fit yeah he just missed my card as well so I’m glad we were able to get him on the show in some Capac capacity I’m going to take us to the first round leader Market again and I’m going to go after Tony fee now at 60 to1 so this is another guy who I was talking about Mor Cabo earlier fos steing is obviously among the highest in this field but the finishing ability has also just not been there no wins for him this season but he has made the weekend in nine consecutive tournaments with four top eight finishes over that stretch including a third place finish at the US Open so the the skill set in being able to compete against this field is not a question it’s whether can he close out against this field and he hasn’t shown it that part of his game this year so therefore I like him more in the first round leader Market at 60 to one than his outright number and another uh thing I want to add on to that is that fena ranks 12th on tour this season in first round scoring average which again kind of fits that mold of he’s been starting strong and not necessar closing out on Sundays and so at 60 to one with a guy of that high of a ceing I like Fino in that market perfect because that is the uh the one outright that I wanted to sneak in here as well and that is Tony fenal 50 to won uh to win this golf tournament um I know that he hasn’t necessarily had the major championship success that we’re looking for in terms of the wins um but he’s got a great open track record and similar to Patrick Klay he was right there in the mixs down to the very last putt at Pinehurst that was a super impressive performance he’s finished third at Port Rush before he’s got another top 10 finish at Carusi and he even finished uh top 20 in his first Open Championship ever at Royal trun um something about these lengths golf courses seem to to fit his eye uh he’s just hitting his iron so incredibly well at the moment and uh similar to Colin morala as well the short game and putter we’ve been getting a lot more out of the short game in putter from Tony fow lately he’s gained Strokes putting in three straight starts he just gained over four strokes around the green as well I I think the fact that you know we can always count on his Elite approach play but the fact that he’s starting to Chip and Putt a lot better gives him a lot of lot of upside to win this golf tournament so Tony fow 50 to one uh to win the Open Championship I love it my final play is another first round leader play and that’s Alex nor in that 80 to one so he’s never won on tour and I don’t think that ceiling is going to be there in a field this loaded but I do think the his floor is high enough to where he can compete during any single round so why not Thursday’s opening round he ranked six sixth on tour of the season in first round scoring average and has made the weekend in 19 of his past 22 starts he boasts 14 top 25 finishes over that stretch the majority of which Ur because he’s an accurate ball Striker both off the te and on the approach which again we keep profiling of how important that’s going to be this week um he just profiles well for this quar specifically and he starts strong in tournaments usually doesn’t finish as strong so I think he’s just a good flyer to take at 80 to1 in the first round leader Market I’m going to finish this off with one more first round leader and Cameron young at 60 to1 I just think that this is a player with a ton of upside to absolutely destroy this golf course I mean I think the prudent strategy off the tea is to play a lot more conservatively um but we have seen the occasional player Cameron young did this last year at Royal Liverpool uh we saw JB Holmes do this at Royal Trin in 2016 if you are able to thread the needle with your driver on some of these holes and drive the ball both long and straight you will possess a tremendous Advantage I love the way that Cameron young is driving the ball right now um he’s got two strong finishes in a row at the rocket Mortgage in The Travelers Championship even if we don’t trust him to put it together for four rounds he tends to struggle on Sundays um I think he is one of the best candidates to get out to a hot start he’s finished top 10 in both of his last two open appearances uh and that will do it for our Best Bets episode for the Open championship before we get out of here a final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary area B 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick brettw return with host Roberto aruo tomorrow for our Open championship betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartor I’m your host Andy laak and we will see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365
