Free Best Bets and Expert Sports Picks | WagerTalk Today | MLB Predictions | Player Props | 7/12/24

Friday July 12, 2024: Get daily free picks, sports betting tips, and advice from Kelly Stewart and Teddy Covers Tuesday through Friday on WagerTalk Today. On every show, the Dynamic Duo breaks down the biggest games on the board with special guest handicappers, giving out free NBA picks, NFL predictions, college football betting advice and so much more. Each week we check in with Las Vegas bookmakers and professional sports bettors to get the inside scoop on the sports betting industry.

On Friday’s edition of WagerTalk Today, Adam Trigger joins Kelly and Teddy to give MLB predictions for today! Andy Lang drops by to give player props around the world of sports and Art DiCesare closes out the show by giving a betting market update from the other side of the counter!

#WagerTalk | #mlbpredictions | #playerprops

Introduction 00:00
Andy Lang: WNBA – Allisha Gray Scoring Prop (Atl Dream v LV Aces) 3:45
Andy Lang: UFC – Drew Dober v Jean Silva Total 6:59
What Bettors Learned 11:35
Adam Trigger: MLB: Yankees vs Orioles 14:55
Adam Trigger: MLB: Brewers vs Nationals 25:00
Teddy: BGB MLB Nationals vs Brewers 25:16
Arthur DiCesare 28:35
CFB 33:24
NFL 37:49
NFLX 39:56
MLB 40:50

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[Music] welcome to wager talk today the first day I finally got to have a cup of coffee all week long still no sleep but that’s okay we’ve got a star studded lineup today Andy Lang WNBA UFC Adam trigger is gonna bring some energy like he always does on the diamond and of course Westgate super book risk room super visor art de Caesar with some more football welcome in Teddy has it finally cooled off in Las Vegas are you guys uh still sweating out there at 8 am it’s stupid in Vegas right now I mean this this last week is you know again I’ve been out here since 98 and I don’t remember a hotter week you know maybe you know it hasn’t it’s one of those deals you wake up in the morning you know me I wake up in the morning what the first thing I do I go out and have a smoke you know I don’t smoke in the house so I go outside and have a smoke and usually you know you got to on a t-shirt now it’s like I want to walk outside naked because it’s I mean it’s it’s 98 Degrees you know a press type Vis visual our poor audience uh comment below if you guys uh were disturbed by that uh because now I picture 6 foot4 Teddy out there having a smoke oh God never mind so yeah uh just trying to give you visuals Kelly that’s you know the the dead show last night that pre was at he was having visuals so you Canna have him here this morning oh boy yes uh Teddy was telling me about the text he was receiving from his missing co-host who’s having entirely too much fun uh acting like a teenager on a Grateful Dead show so shout out to pre he will not be back Monday nobody will be here Monday but next week they have a very entertaining show during MLB allstar break Teddy will be there and uh the pre will be back and he can tell you about all of his uh trippy activities while he was in Las Vegas yeah just to set that schedule for next week very clearly no show on Monday there will be a wager talk today every other day in the week Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday um so be sure to tune in no show on look there’s nothing going on Monday all right but the rest of the week tune in I’m very excited I’m very yeah I’m very excited for the Dave Mason episode I will be in Italy so I will be asking to just get the clipped version uh talk about some uh political betting odds couple other housekeeping things before we bring on Andy Lang coupon code kiv 69 makes a 7day all access pass just $69 I’m Gonna Save you guys $30 because I’m nice like that less than 10 bucks a day you get a handicapper of your choice or handicappers of your choice yeah that’s right $69 for seven days of their package let’s say you buy it today and they pass during All-Star break well you still get your additional six days good for every single wager talk handicapper no limit on use and you can choose as many guys as you like so this is your first time to wager talk I’m also going to give you an additional 15% off of that $69 Price teddy let’s bring in Andy Lang uh we kind of had a little back and forth here about Alicia gray Andy yeah well first all how dare you say there’s nothing going on on Monday we can play Chris Doby over over Richie Ed house at the world match play darts tournament which starts on Saturday tons of action going on rephrase on Monday there is not much going on on Monday There’s there’s something going on but not much I’ll give you that okay not much but also it all Ser is uh golf major next week the Open Championship so I’ll look forward to that yeah let’s talk to Alicia gray Atlanta Dream um what I’ve noticed with these WNBA players is when you’re looking at their their streaks on going over with their points or their points rebounds and assists they generally don’t go over more than four or five games in a row before having a little regression and I believe that’s what we’re looking at with Alicia gray here her point total is 18 and a half and and I will take the under she’s gone over this total five games in a row but we look at her last four totals 20 19 19 and 19 so she has just barely gone over this total and she is shooting the ball a ton 71 shots in the last five games she had 19 shot attempts in the last game uh so I know she’s the primary scorer right now for this team but she’s facing the Las Vegas Aces number four in defensive rating over the last five games um and this what I like about this trend is she has not had more than two games in a row going over this point total all season and now she’s at five so I think we see a little bit of regression and I will happily take the under 18 and I’ll will happily take the under 18 and a half points based on the graphic there yeah under under it work that way oh you know over works that way but under you just can’t say it with that same Nuance but I want to ask you so Al Gray she’s the star she’s getting all the shot attempts and she played Vegas once already this year and torched them flew over this total she’s gone over five in a row to me this doesn’t feel like a play that’s right in your wheelhouse Andy talk to me about why this one stood out to you and how you think the aces will respond after getting torched by gray the last time these two teams met yeah she had such a fascinating box score so she scored 24 points Teddy she was six of 15 from the field but she was six of seven from threes she’s oer from twos didn’t make one two-point shot and then she was a perfect six for six from the free throw line so I look at that box square and I go that’s a little bit of an anomaly going six to seven from three-pointers and just to show what an anomaly that is in her last three games one of five from three one of two for three one of three from threes so that game against Vegas I’m kind of chalking up to an outlier and I will uh I will take the regression Factor here tonight on the under I found another thing we can bet on on uh Monday I’ll be flying to Italy with Ariel Epstein I’m gonna say between the two of us over under 11 and a half cocktails no no takers okay great I’m thinking about it give me a second 11 because 11 and a half is a good number 11 and a half I mean like nine and a half we’re going over but 11 and a half you know you have five drinks you pass out you wake up it’s you know that’s 10 a.m. when you land you might not you might not get an appol Spritz just yet yeah I know I’m pretty good at this number game uh all jokes aside let’s get into the UFC UFC Fight Night is coming up on Saturday and Andy Lang has a 4% UFC best bet he has been RedHot the last six months 66% winners in the MMA on his 4% plays or higher talk to me about Drew Dober versus John Silva yeah so we got this interesting matchup here between two guys who are are purely Strikers and I would expect it to be a lot more of a striking Fest as opposed to wrestling here you’ve got Silva who’s taking this fight on short notice he just fought a couple weeks ago and he won in knockout fashion but here’s the thing first off these guys are tough they have great chins Silva’s never been knocked out gober’s only been knocked out one time in his career when he has lost it’s losing by submissions and that’s not Silva’s game we saw Drew Dober put on a he put on a great performance in his last fight against boano but he lost because of the wrestling and once he got on the ground he was overmatched but on the feet he was able to do damage um it was a war and when we look at this Kelly the big thing this is in Denver high altitude and we’ve seen these UFC uh fight nights and we’ve seen these pfl fight nights in Utah where the altitude just gets to them I actually expect both these guys to come out a little bit slow because they want to Pace themselves I expect that kind of across the board with this you do not want to be the guy that is gassed at the beginning of round two when you’re going up against a striker and we only need this to go over one and a half I think both these guys are going to be a little bit cautious because they know the the other one is a dangerous Striker and the other thing that we have with Dober being a vet is uh Silva comes from one of the best gyms if not the best gym for game planning for fights right now it comes from the fighting nerds they are on an unbel aable run and they know what Drew dobber’s uh path to Victory is they know it’s the Striking I think Silva’s going to be great on the feet I think he’s going to move around and don’t be surprised if one of these guys tries to test the wrestling and grappling of the other one as it’s their weak spot I love the over one and a half not ready to take it to go the distance because I don’t think a late finish is out of the cards but over one and a half at this minus 120 yeah I’ll take that one so first let me start with this Andy you talked about darts and there is a big darts event on Monday if you want to do a 45 minute show on darts on Monday knock yourself out uh but my hunch is that uh uh there’s not going to be a huge audience for that that being said of course we will have shows every other day uh next week but you said something there that was a little bit counterintuitive to me my thought process when you’re talking about the thin air a mile high air in Denver is that someone’s going to get gassed early and it’s more likely to be a shorter fight you’re saying no they’re going to Pace themselves and it’s more likely to be a longer fight talk about that because it to me it feels like the the the the the intuitive thought process says under in a uh in a situation like this not over yeah so what we see at these high altitude things is when these guys get gassed they kind of lose the ability to finish they don’t have the power left they don’t have the ability to wrap up a big choke or a submission and at high altitude these guys get tired and they start sweating really early which means it’s hard to Grapple and it’s hard to grab a hold of them and when both both of them get equally tired Teddy you see a lot of this kind of dead time where they kind of hog each other on the fence they’re both kind of grasping for air and the other thing that’s happened is UFC has uh added new gloves and we’re seeing less and less Knockouts these gloves are just not really setting up great for a whole lot of Knockouts so there’s a lot there’s a lot going into this but um I get what you’re saying where you’re like oh high altitude guys get tired man surely this would set up for finishes it actually kind of works the other way where they get so tired that they just lack the the power and lack the the the energy to get the finish so um it’s a it’s a it’s a little bit of a risky one but I love the price here you don’t normally see over one and a halfs at minus 120 so I think we’re getting a very very fair price Andy Lang do you have anything to promote at Andy Lang bets on your social channels and of course at bump Sports on Twitter I don’t know why he did that but anity tell me what you got over on wagertalk.com uh it goes back to the very first podcast that I ever started way back when uh way way back when I don’t even know if wager talk was alive uh back then so that’s where it comes from um yeah 4% UFC that’s the best thing we have going for us this weekend we’re sweating out a couple golf bets uh over at the Scottish open but uh MMA is going to be where we do our damage this weekend it’s a very betable card and I love that 4% best bet so go grab that over at wager talk.com WTB backal is where you can get all of Andy’s plays on wagertalk.com Teddy covers what did betters learn yesterday oh we got to talk about some beats we have to Marco came on the show yesterday he liked blue jays Giants under seven and a half and I’m not calling him out at all but he was wrong in one sense that game was three to2 after the first inning hard to cash under seven and a half when they score five in the first that said Marco was unbelievably right for the next seven Innings we saw a total of two runs scored it’s 5-2 in the ninth that under seven and a half’s going to cash bottom nine one out two out strike one strike two you’re one strike away nobody on base no balls M had the plate he had seven dingers coming to the game this year 15 last year we’re not talking about a monster home run hitter he’s got two outs two strikes well guess what he starts fighting foul ball foul ball foul ball ball now it’s a three2 count a nine pitch at bat and the ninth pitch with two outs and two strikes in the ninth is of course a home run the next batter strikes out three pitch is 5-3 final under seven and a half no good if you had the under in that game and were sweating it out it’s like getting your heart ripped out you know what the are you effing kidding me unders are the worst beats the worst beats on unders I can’t watch him when I have an under you know me Kelly I watch I don’t watch unders the worst beat I ever saw I looked it up again yesterday just to refresh my memory white socks Mariners June 5th 2013 all you need to know is it’s nothing nothing into the 14th inning that’s 13 scoreless Innings any run would have won one- nothing final in the 14th what happens chaio scor five in the top and the Mariners Kyle Seager two out two strike Grand Slam in the bottom next thing you know it’s a five5 tie Bo White Sox end up winning seven to five and 16 it was disgusting these unders can be disgusting when they lose and I’m very sorry if you had the Giants Chase under yesterday it wasn’t the right side but it was a tough brutal way to lose that’s what I Le yeah I don’t know Teddy I feel like the daggers maybe I just don’t bet enough baseball especially in totals but I feel like those daggers like whether you have the over and there’s a late goal line stand and they don’t let the team score a garbage touchdown or the opposite where Nick Sabin just lets Arkansas waltson the over hits so that you know they don’t get shut out at home you know those types of Beats I feel like happen it’s those pick sixes and I had three of them last year late pick sixes in college football that just stabbed me in the heart and just all the way through that I can’t get over myself Adam trigger we’re gonna bring him in from wager talk.com to talk some baseball of course we got Arta Caesar bat and cleanup to talk more football Adam trigger at topflight SI on all your social channels talk to me about Yankees Orioles and don’t think that I did not ask Dan to bring that Bell from first pitch you got 90 seconds my friend ah 90 seconds is tough all right both these teams are scuffling of course that’s that’s pretty obvious at this point Orioles get swept by the Cubs Yankees two and seven to start July but I still think it’s a solid kind of spot to buy low on Garrett Cole he of course got a late start to his season had some elbow inflammation but he looked awesome in rehab um you kind of Breeze through three three rehab starts pitched up here in Rochester New York at 10 strikeouts so I think he’s probably like over were pitching a little bit since he’s got back to the big leagues um you know his fastball V was still a little bit down that’s something that I think is going to start to improve as he as he builds up his arm strength um so I think he’s going to be better ultimately will be better he settled in against the Red Sox after Des took him deep he was fine eight strikeouts he only made it into the fifth but but I still think we’re going to see him get better uh and so I’d be willing to sort of Buy Low on him on the other side you’ve got Kade Povich he’s a young guy got called up earlier the year he was very effective at the minor league level um he throws like six pitches and at Triple A all of those pitches played at the big league level it’s looking like he’s you know got two pitches that are ready for the big leagues the other stuff is getting hit um so you know he had a batting average against below 200 for his first three starts the league is starting to figure him out a little bit uh and got really figured him out last time out one inning against the A’s got completely blown up a lot of times you see a young guy get sent down after something like that but it looks like Povich just kind of earned his the right to figure it out at the big league level he’s a hot he’s a touted enough Prospect in this organization uh but I think this is a tough spot for him he’s up against the Yankees they’re going to see him for a second time that’s where what I think gives the Yankees a nice Edge and so Cole byow Yankees getting a second shot at poic um Oriel scuffling struggling to score I think the Yankees uh is a good bet here if this game gets played because we’ve got some rain potential in Baltimore tonight so the Yankees have played let’s not let’s call it what it is they played bad baseball for the better part of the last month all right and I haven’t seen signs you know sometimes you see signs all right this this is about to turn hey they get somebody back in the lineup hey uh all of a sudden things are looking on the bright side I haven’t seen any of that from the Yankees yet is this a buy sign that we’re just fading Baltimore here or is there something with the Yankees that you think May well be positive expectation moving forward this weekend and after the All-Star break I was going to say you want to talk about bad baseball lately that the Orioles were awful you know in that Series against the Cubs um and and I think it’s a bigger thing for the Orioles like listen this is a team that somehow has managed to fight off any sort of regression for like the last two and a half years and I I thought we were going to see it at some point coming into the season you have a bunch of guys that suddenly went from you know like prospects to all of a sudden the Orioles have big- time expectations even in the market they’re still I’m pretty sure the Orioles are still favored to win this division they came into the season with all these expectations and I really thought that at some point you were going to see you were going to see some regression I thought at some point they weren’t going to be able to get away with just running guys like Albert Suarez John means like some some of these guys they just Tred out there are just having far better Seasons than they should and even with poic like you know I thought we’d see him up at some point in 2024 a little bit earlier than I expected because of the multitude of pitching injuries bradish on the I um and and now I just think that you’re you’ve got a guy that probably could still be you know honing his craft at Triple A against the Yankees who hit left-handed pitching well and I don’t think they’re going to miss him twice Teddy they just saw him a couple weeks ago the Yankees are still a team that I think ends up winning this division I’m still higher on the Yankees than I am the Orioles so I do think the Yankees probably bounce back in this series and it probably happens here all right good quick analysis from Adam trigger Adam before we get into Brewers Nationals can you tell me what you’ve got up for sale over at wager talk.com yeah I’m so shook on this Bell I’m glad you thought that was good um but do you want me to promo you Adam I got you WTB I can’t even talk I don’t back slat I’ve got Adam so shook I love this for me this is perfect six in one this week in Major League Baseball you can get his 30-day all access special for BL does he know does Adam know it’s $210 right isn’t it 210 you just told me 30-day all access $7 a day I didn’t know I had to I didn’t know I had to outline sitewide pricing but that’s okay you know some of us have really busy schedules around here we have to fill in for the Press amongst do all of our other work this is a this is a heavy duty job I want you to know hosting wager talk today is so very important do not let pre go without getting recognized Brewers one and a half over the Nationals Nationals just an absolute National Disgrace over the last few weeks Adam talk to me why you like laying the one and a half with the Brewers team who hasn’t looked much better yeah so I have nothing up for sale yet at wager talk today reason is I’m waiting for a couple teams to announce pitching um the reason I’ve been on such a good run in Major League Baseball and I’ve had success in major league baseball this year is I think I evaluate the triaa guys better than the oddsmakers do I I watch and go to a ton of triaa baseball so this is a scenario where I think I have a better beat on a guy that’s coming up from Triple A than the market does uh and that guy’s Jackson rut he’s a former first round pick of the Nationals back in 2019 um and he’s someone that you know kind of flew up the ranks got to double e daa had a really good start to the year at Double A last year and really hasn’t panned out since he hit the triaa level um he pitches up here in Rochester New York so i’ I’ve seen him a bunch in person uh 1.5 whip at Rochester last year and and he’s actually regressed at Triple A this year um his whips up to 165 he’s got an ER in the mid six sixes and and it’s just I watch a lot of triaa baseball and I see him up against some of the other guys like let’s say aoic or some of the other Frontline sort of starters in in Triple A and he doesn’t pass the it test for me he gives up hard contact I I just don’t think he’s he’s really big league ready yet but I know he’s sort of getting up there in age he was a first rounder and and the Nationals are at the point where it looks like Josiah gray is going to be done for maybe the rest of the season they’ve got a whole bunch of Lefty starters this team is just trotting left-hander handed starter after left-handed starter every day McKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Corbin hers that like it’s you know teams are getting the same look from a lot of their starters and I think that was sort of the motivation to to bring Rutledge up here uh but I I just don’t really think he’s ready to go on the road and face a team like the Brewers you know they got shut down by skin yesterday but this team’s 23 and eight in their last 31 home games all their home splits are better uh the Brewers are one of the better teams in the league in my opinion and and when they play at home they certainly sort of live up to that the Nationals are 4 and 13 in their last 17 games going in the complete wrong direction the starting pitching has been awful across the board so maybe this is just Well it can’t get any worse so let’s give him a shot but when they gave him a shot last year at the big league level 6.75 ER he got into a big league game earlier this year in relief got touched up so I just don’t see how that works out for him the Brewers just saw Paul SK yesterday the ball’s probably going to look like a beach ball to them here um you know coming from anyone other than generational Talent Paul I think the Brewers bounce back and I probably they probably do it in uh in blowout fashion so one of the rare times you’re ever going to see me tell you to lay minus one and a half with the home team but this feels like a lopsided result here so let me ask you this in terms of the concept because Milwaukee was shut down by skis yesterday pretty well they ended up loading the bases after he went out in the eighth and couldn’t uh punch a run across ended up losing that game one to nothing what’s your take on laying a run and a half for the team that just got shut out yesterday do you automatically expect that that lineup against lesser pitching is going to find a way because part of the Brewers recent slump has been the lineup hasn’t been consistently hitting uh how confident are you that those bats are going to come alive today Teddy I I don’t look at these Trends very often because like here’s the thing yesterday they face Paul SK he’s starting the All-Star game on Thursday today they’re facing Jackson rutage he should still be pitching in Rochester not in a big league game in Milwaukee so it’s like it’s completely irrelevant to me like that’s just not something I I look at that’s not part of my handicap I I do not love laying minus one and a half so I do think like another way to bet this would be to try to like work the money line into some sort of other bet but um you know you could bet the first five we’ve got Freddy Peralta on the mound who I didn’t touch on for the Brewers like he he kind of you know labored through four Innings against the Dodgers last time out but when he’s on he can be like when he when he’s on he has like front line of the rotation stuff so I think he bounces back so couple different ways you can look at this one if you don’t want to lay the run and a half try to find a way to use the money line maybe go like a minus a half run on the first five bet with the Brewers but I do think this is a good spot for the Brewers to bounce back from yesterday God you guys I’m so proud of Adam at topf flight si in rapid response you you may do Let go please help what you’ve got up at wager talk.com yeah so we’ve got the specials um that’s obviously the best you know kind of value we have to offer right now I will likely have a 4% MLB play today I’m waiting on uh to see what a couple of different teams are doing with their pitching I’ll almost definitely have a a kbo play in the morning I’m eight and two on my last 10 kbo plays and and those lines should be up in a minute so we’ll we’ll we’ll more than likely have something up for individual sale today but for right now check out that great special wbuz good stuff from Adam now it’s time for Teddy covers and his big game breakdown big game breakdown let’s go to the West Coast and talk to the San Francisco Giants and the Minnesota Twins right now look at the waiter talk live on screen we’re seeing Minnesota money this morning twins up as high as minus 150 at some books prevailing line in the minus 140 range total 7 and a half juice to the over in a lot of spots and I think I’d rather have the total here than the side I lean mini first five I lean mini full game but I think the better bet here is the under and certainly the twins they’ve been riding when they’re hot fad them when they’re cold all year and they’re hot now four and one the last five 17 and eight the last five 17 and eight the last 25 it’s a winning baseball team on the other hand the Giants kind of underachieved from day one even if y did hit the ninth inning Homer with two strikes and two outs last night to kill under betters they still lost second straight at home to the Blue Jays only scored three runs again and this has been a consistent problem for San Francisco the offense mostly say hit or miss but it’s mostly miss four runs or less seven of their last eight ball games and of course the Giants are losing now they’re W and four in their last five so I wouldn’t argue with a play on Minnesota here but rather than lay the price I think there’s something to like about certainly both starting pitchers I mean Joe Ryan he beat the Mariners and the Astros his last two starts 18 strikeouts one walk four runs allowed he’s been consistently good for the full season Joe Ryan has allowed less than one base runner per inning the only pitcher is better than him look at the aces scoble s Gilbert glasnow uh crochet those the only pitchers in baseball better every one of those guys is an ace Ryan’s not really being priced like an ace he’s beaten the Giants each of the last two years one run eight hits over 11 innings in those two starts and he’s a Bay Area kid his first start at Oracle this is a meaningful game for him a big game and of course he’s facing a team that’s not hitting the question is what do we do with Harrison for the Gan he’s no Ace he’s allowed 18 runs in 25 two innings at work over his last five starts he had four walks and three and a third last time out that was his first start back off a four-week stint on the iil with a bad ankle his quote after the start though give me some bet on quote I was working a little too fast I didn’t have my legs under me I was able to get back out there and I felt good I’m ready for my next one for sure that’s one of those quotes that says maybe pay attention to a young hurler with some upside and maybe we look at this one under so first five Under full game under lean Minnesota lots of opinions on this one but I think the unders stronger than the side and you’re not laying a price to do it there’s your big game bre breakdown back to you Miss Kelly I love it I love it I love it I uh do not want to take away from anything from Mr Andy Lang Teddy covers or Adam trigger but I am so excited to talk some college football and maybe a little NFL uh with West skate risk supervisor at the super book there in Las Vegas Art de Caesar welcome in thank you as always for joining us from your home and not the risk room because it would be very annoying to have guys popping in and out I’m almost going to say after the other day that you might be my new favorite Westgate employee but don’t tell John Murray uh Kelly let me give you another one how about a young whipper snapper named Chase Michaelson oh I can’t wait to take Chase’s $500 uh any day now we’re just waiting we’re just waiting he’s claiming that there’s some collusion that I had some sort of inside information uh I just said no I know this guy’s 81 years old he’s not gonna make it to November anyway I digress art welcome into the show as always anything that you have to promote before Teddy and I rapid fire some college football at you I mean listen as always the Westgate guys you know come down check us out come down sign up for the app this is the perfect time to get in on the app especially too if you’re going to be you know you live in town you want to bet football throughout the year all the ingame options and just the full betting menu that we offer down at the Westgate I think this is the perfect time in the Sleepy part of the season to come down and get signed up yep Westgate super contest signups are underway I will be there uh for super contest weekend August 15 through 18th play a little golf sign up for uh the regular contest I have a couple buddies that are trying to push me towards doing a team ticket on the gold I think if I ever did pull the trigger on the 5K I would have to do it by myself or I might end a friendship or two Let’s uh Teddy Teddy shakes he knows Teddy are youing the contest this year I don’t know if I’m going to or not uh I haven’t been the last couple years I haven’t entered and I found that the reason I don’t like that I’ve stopped entering every every year you start thinking about five games five games all week you’re thinking about five games and I found that that didn’t help my handicapping for the clients and that’s more important look the the the super contest from my perspective it’d be a nice reward it’d be a great uh you know it’ be uh an ego boost as much as anything but it’s not anything that’s going to make a difference to my clients and that’s more important to me so I’d rather not think about five games and just keep my thought process is focused on the task at hand winning for the clients as opposed to this looking at what stale contest lines can I take advantage of you know for me it’s all about a thought process I would agree it is tough five games I always love three like like let me rephrase that like three love two maybe sometimes finding that fourth and fifth is very awful Teddy I’m gonna let you start with art because I think you have a funny question that I want the answer to yeah yeah so art Kelly’s been doing the podcast with John Murray over at the Westgate for years all right now you’re all of a sudden doing media with Kelly and Vegas are you guys battling over this talk to me about John Murray and how he feels uh and talk to me about that podcast uh that Kelly and John have been doing for uh for many years it’s an outstanding listen uh every football SE it it is an outstanding listen and even way before I got involved with the Westgate I was doing stuff when I worked at Caesars and I just like my little niche my little corner of the media World Kelly will know someone I do stuff with JJ John jsky he’s one of my favorites I do something with him every week during the football season so I I like to find my little niche I let the big guys the big guns Kelly and John do their podcast and listen if I can come on and do something with Kelly every once in a while it’s all good but I would never dare think that I could steal Kelly from John because I know that I think John would gladly give me away if he could but at this point he is stuck with me uh he is contractually obligated to hang out with me until at least May of 2025 uh but we are going to do some stuff I actually have a uh call with our CEO and coo after the show today we’re gonna be doing a bookmaker show with one of the wager talk handicappers and one of the bookmakers from the Westgate every single Saturday and Sunday it looks like so we’re g to get even more in-depth looks behind the counter now I’m gonna get a little selfish on the show so audience you’ll have to bear with me we all know I love those outright underdogs art and I’ve already started my week one research I’ve got one dog circled I think can wi outright have you guys seen anything from either the sharp guys maybe even it looks like a square dog that maybe I should be avoiding because I think USC has a real opportunity in Las Vegas to Spring the upset against an LSU team who has not won their season opener since 2019 new defensive coordinator Deontay Lynn andfor deanton I think it’s deanton Lynn another name screw up for Kelly uh is going to be a Difference Maker for this defense because it cannot get much worse than it was last year I just don’t know if it’s going to get them the outright win I like catching almost a touchdown on a neutral but it is slim pickings week one for outright underdogs I’m gonna have to start looking at Double Digit dogs here pretty quick it is very slim pickings and we talked about a couple now are those teams going to win outright like Stanford and Hawaii whose point spreads have moved two or three points and they’re still basically double digit dogs Hawaii still almost a two touchdown dog probably not I think the one that’s real interesting because they used to play all the time and now they don’t play as much is Miami of Florida playing Florida week one and Florida is a slight dog Miami is a two and a half Point favorite I think Florida will be very popular in that Underdog money line role we don’t even have money lines right now we just have sides we don’t even have to just sides but I think when we get there because like you said the slim picking nature of what we’re looking at that is one and I’ll throw another out there because they’ve been down a little bit you know they’re kind of up and down as a program and I think people like to take shots with Mac teams Northwestern is only laying three and a half to Miami Ohio I think that’s an interesting one as well because once again if you’re looking down the board you’re seeing a lot of two three and even four touch down underdogs and those are obviously really hard to cash as Underdog outrights yeah so I will be going to that USC LSU game uh Kell with uh uh some of the guys from Sports grid Gabe Mory and Company I think that’s the last Sunday in August that’s a single event game here at allegion hope maybe maybe art will have time to come join us but my hunch is that’s going to be a busy day uh at the Westgate super book uh my hunch nonetheless I’ll be at that game it should be a whole lot of fun I want to ask if about this concept because this is something I’ve noted over the years and I don’t know that people talk about it week one college football I’m not gonna say I exclusively play favorites but I look for favorites because it feels like all summer long everybody like Kelly is looking oh which dog’s gonna win which dog’s gonna win and it feels like week one more than any other week all the wise guy money all the sharp money is coming in on these dogs and I’m like there’s got to be with the favorites week one much more than The Underdogs agree or disagree art no Teddy I think you get to a point where the number sees its resistance and we’ve just talked about a couple and we talked about it on Tuesday a couple of the dogs that have seen money with their point spread and you’re talking three and fourpoint moves and I think eventually you get to a number where the sharp educated better is not saying that the original move is not sharp because it is you see Sharp money come in but then you reach a number where the buyback back starts to happen and you probably get a discount on a favorite in stay instead of laying 17 now you’re laying 12 now you’re laying 11 and a half something of that nature so yeah I don’t disagree with that point well I want to talk about that Northwestern Miami o game real quick because here’s another I mean here’s a you know a big 10 team laying three and a half where there’s clearly respect for the underdog and it feels like that’s like underdogs get respect week one that they don’t necessarily get at any other point because people are looking for them talk to me about that game and that concept yeah yeah definitely and Teddy it’s so funny right when and listen you could do this with a million games but you know if Northwestern comes out and wins that game 31 nothing you know and that game was then priced in week six maybe it’s Northwestern you know laying eight and a half it’s like the power number can shift so dramatically but there’s a lot of unknowns obviously in week zero and week one and you know a lot of things is you know you’re pricing with the market you’re pricing to see what happens when your sharp players do come in and bet your initial numbers so yeah I mean you see a team who plays in a power conference play a little you know smaller you know Little League conference and you think how can they only be laying three and three and a half it’s uh it’s pretty interesting and I think that’s what makes this whole process from not only my side of the counter but your side of the counter you know really fun I love it uh getting that Peak behind the counter is kind of one of my favorite things I don’t like to use it all the time but I always find it very interesting on Saturday morning when jonell texts the uh Kelly and Murray chat and say God do we need X team this morning and it does seem like more often than not that is the team that somehow wins out right so pivoting to NFL if you had to guess uh what are we seven weeks out from the NFL season what would you think your biggest need is going to be for NFL week one oh man that’s a great question let me just make sure I get the full week one slate let me as I’m looking at that just a couple of teams that have been pretty public the Bears have been pretty public the Rams have been pretty public and that’s public in the sense of all things you know to make the playoffs their win total even some people taking a shot with the Rams to win the NFC there’s some of that type of love so when I look at week one obviously we know how big that week opening one game will be where we’ve already seen Chiefs money Chiefs minus 2 A2 minus 120 haven’t gotten to three yet listen if we ever got to three we know the Raven buyback would be tremendous I think that will come I think and it’s tough because it’s a divisional team going on the road in week one but a team that’s going to get a lot of love is the Houston Texans they’re laying two and a half on the road at Indie Indie is going to be a scrappy team but people love the Texans stoud right now is number one for us most tickets for the MVP Houston is a hot team to win the Super Bowl they were 16 to1 now 14 to one so I could see the Texans coming in to me that would be public I think the public is going to have Houston in every single thing in week one money lines and all sorts of things with parlays we’ve got just a few moments left with Arthur de Caesar at Art dice2 on Twitter he’s a risk management supervisor of for the super book here in Nevada all I want to ask you one more NFL question and then one quick MLB for the weekend but NFL Kelly said something about seven weeks NFL starts in like less than a month right I mean we have a first week of preseason Thursday August you know what I the NFL starts when the pre-season starts not when the regular season starts uh when do you anticipate having preseason numbers up did that they not come up till the week of the game or is that something we’re going to see a little bit ahead of time yeah I mean the the Hall of Fame game we could probably get up a little bit ahead of time because that’s you know like the one Standalone game which I believe is like August 1 something in that uh nature but usually pre-season every week it’s going to be either the night before the game or day before the game as you guys know it’s such a volatile Market with all the sitting and you got to listen to the coaches and really try to kind of dive into what they’re saying and who’s playing and who’s not and all the wink wink of that but listen NFL preseason betting is as big big as you would think it is and I actually think even bigger some people are a little shocked when I say that yeah I’m a I’m a big believer in the NFL preseason and uh my clients are over the years as well no complaints there it’s the last week before the allstar break last weekend I say before the All-Star break what are you seeing in the baseball action for this last weekend and are there any things that you expect to see after the All-Star break that you haven’t seen before the All-Star break or not really no I I do think you know you’re starting to see some of these teams go through their dips obviously the Yankees are one of them they’re just teams that listen it’s a long season it’s 162 Game season I think you see you know the ins and outs of teams being good and not being good and then obviously we’re going to get to the trade deadline soon so that will obviously be a lot of stuff where we’ll have to adjust you know division numbers and you know win the World Series and win the pennet but just look at some stuff today the public two things that they love and they have in all their parlays laying a big one with the Phillies minus 280 but even a short one at home with the Astros minus 140 against the Rangers that is the two big teams that are in all the parlays and then the sharp stuff overnight Reds open minus 142 at home they’re now 165 at home against the Marlins and a game you mentioned Teddy the twins twins saw sharp action as well they were under a130 at minus 128 now sitting at minus 145 against the Giants in San Francisco and like you said Teddy that San Frisco offense is as bad as it gets so allar break sorry goe I sent you a little text to say I have one more follow I apologize uh but uh I wanted to ask you so next week Allstar break obviously Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday the book open uh what do you guys have going on what’s Allstar break like uh at the Westgate Su Allstar break is tough but I’ll say this Teddy Tuesday with the game People BET the Home Run Derby Monday people bet it and folks do not sleep on NBA Summer League NBA Summer League which tips off today in Vegas there’ll be games all week and people bet that stuff and for all the other summer leagues in the other states we don’t book second halfs we don’t do all that sort of stuff NBA Summer League of Vegas we’re booking second halfs we’re doing bronny props we do everything so we’ll find things for people to bet and we will book plenty of stuff all right over under uh how many drinks Ariel and Epstein and I have on our flight to Italy it’s an 8 and a half hour flight I set the line at 11 and a half actually let’s start when I get to the airport I get it to JFK four hours before our flight so from from when when I get to JFK until we land in Italy it’s 12 hours 11 and a half drinks two ladies well the fact that you have that buffer time at the airport I’m an airport Drinker not an on the plane Drinker I don’t really love the on the plane drink maybe one but not three three but at the airport bar you can have three if you’re giving me the 4 hours before and an 8 hour flight two of you I’m slamming the over and when you move the number I want to bet it again go to the back of the line betting it again thank you for all of your Insight behind the counter at the Westgate Superbook you can follow him at Art dice 21 Teddy covers we had a great week I had so much fun filling in for the pr as you mentioned no show Monday full windup Tuesday through Friday take us home yeah that’s going to wrap it for the week here on wager talk today we’ll do it again next week like Kelly said no show Monday but we’ll be on uh every day Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday and of course way you talk extra on Saturday so check us out thanks for and have a great weekend cheers