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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to Call’s calls this is the 2024 John Deere classic DFS tactics show first off happy Independence Day happy 4th of July to wherever you are in this great country of ours hopefully you have a lot of good plans to grill out uh watch the Nathan’s hot dog contest perhaps you’re taking in your own version of that contest um but happy 4th of July to everybody we are here for everything John deer classic for your DFS slate we’re going to be covering the projected forecast uh ownerships of course my rankings everything that you need to win this week with the John Deere I am quite excited so don’t mind the um fireworks and occasional flashes of light uh that might come through uh as people are already celebrating uh around me but we are here for the John Deere so let’s get into it ALS statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf analytic tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter Golf gaml and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description of the video there are links to all the social media first off my ex and Instagram where earlier this week I posted some research around the past 10 winners of the John Deere classic the patterns uh that those winners followed and the players in the field this week who fit that criteria so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contests I play that comes out every Wednesday night after the DFS tactic show so that’ll come out later this evening if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X as well lastly gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat after the calls calls DFS tactic show as we continue the DFS talk over there it’s always a great discussion every week highly suggest you uh subscribe to that article again uh and join us over there and go show him some support follow him over on social media lastly we are live chat’s open want to hear from you all in addition to um your winner this week I just realized I needed to type up a quick poll question so I’ll be doing that here momentarily uh do you have any plans for the fourth uh would love to hear uh what the community is up to uh this week so uh without any further Ado let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 John Deere classic and we start as we always do on a Wednesday evening with the uh extended forecast excuse me the the super forecast over at windfinder let me start a poll here very quickly I’ll post this poll question here for the players who are playing this week who also played last week at the rocket mortgage how much are you factoring in last week’s performance uh not at all little moderate significant amount or quite a bit we turn our attention to the U super forecast here at windfinder and I it does not appear that silvus Illinois got a whole lot of rain like they were projected to on Tuesday or if they did it didn’t have a significant effect on the golf course as several players have said that they are shocked a little bit by How firm the fairways are so it doesn’t seem like the rain if they had any was um much of a factor but we look at tomorrow and Friday which we’re going to focus on of course trying to get six to six lineups through tomorrow looks pretty hectic in regards to the rain coming in earlier today there was a pretty clear Advantage for the Thursday a.m. portion but I don’t see that now especially with the rain now Friday there looks to be a fairly decent um Advantage for the Friday PM portion as you see Friday the sustained winds really pick up around noon or around lunchtime and stay throughout the rest of play uh on Friday or at least that’s the forecast with gusts you know into the 20s but tomorrow is a complete wild card if we get the rain that there’s uh projected to get could cause delays delays could cause um you know play into Saturday as of right now I am only factoring in players who are bad in the wind and generally just taking them out of consideration considering Friday they’re going to be dealing with wind regardless of the tea time and then if we take a look uh at Saturday and Sunday now Saturday morning looks kind of kind of windy but it falls off and then Sunday looks windy a quite a quite windy so it looks like wind’s going to be a factor on at least two of the four days but I’m I’m hesitant to declare any kind of wave Advantage considering this rain that’s supposed to come in tomorrow and it’s going to cause you don’t know what it’s going to do to be honest it could cause delays for the players that are playing during the rain it’s going to be a hassle uh it’s not going to be pleasant conditions um but you know are is the PJ tour going to uh play ball in hand um from the beginning of the round if they played ball and hand at the beginning of the round man that’s it’s going to be real easy for them um for the players who are playing in the morning so a lot of questions and as I do every week I’m just going to suggest that if you have the opportunity to wait until the most recent uh windfinder forecast later this evening or even tomorrow morning I’m suggesting that you do that if this is your final winf finder forecast that you’re able to get I’m just going to play the players who are that we know are decent in the wind because this is just too much question around this just way too much volatility around this is there going to be a delay are they going to play ball in hand I just don’t know I I I just don’t know so with that we’ll move to Fantasy National you see that I’ve got the moderate and windy filters uh selected in the last 2 years in moderate and windy conditions our top performers have been Jordan spe Denny McCarthy Harry Hall Patrick Rogers Sun J kovak Adam shank Brenan Todd and Eric Cole continuing on on down just a little bit uh hubard straa Sam Stevens Dylan woo piery Michael Kim Roger sloate Lashley Callum Taran Aaron Ry there’s your top 20 or so in terms of top performers in the wind and then the other side of that coin players who haven’t been good in the wind Uh Kevin kizner Carl Yuan who had a very good uh rocket mortgage Ryan brim Harrison indicot Russell Knox uh vas Wesley Bryan James H West Morland David skins Harry higs Justin low hasn’t been particularly great in the wind you see in the windiest of conditions he’s been okay it’s moderate uh much like Tom Kim that’s hurting him um Griffin lonto Griffin Tyson Alexander will Gordon those are the players who have not been good in the wind uh in the past two years or 36 rounds uh in the field this week so with that let’s go ahead and move to the mixed condition model that I’ve made for the John Deere this week uh and we start with the fact that I ended up putting in a little bit off the tea got 5% on off the tea when Fairways are easy to hit now normally I would have used maybe the easy relative to par filter or uh you know some other things but with the wind I do see a scenario where this might not be as easy as we might have thought originally throughout this week um I still think the winning score will be in the High Teens I do not think we will get a minus 20 winner just due to the amount of wind that is in the forecast uh throughout the the week now Saturday looks fantastic there should be great scoring on Saturday but Friday and Sunday looks looks pretty tough at least in terms terms of wind so 5% in off the te when Fairways are easy to hit you could argue to look at the driving distance but um I I just felt more comfortable going with off the tea considering there are areas of this golf course that it is just more prudent to lay up or or find the Fairway as opposed to um just mashing driver 15% approach no surprise uh to me the most most important shot type in golf uh it’s been pretty darn consistent year-over-year at the John Deere as well so 15% 10% on Fast bent greens this might be a slight err if they get the rain that they’re forecasted to get I could see the the greens being a little bit soft uh a little bit slower but it you know with the with weather we just don’t know um that’s why it’s unpredictable every single round the past two years has been fast majority of the rounds in the past four years been fast so that is the angle I’m taking at least with putting um you definitely want to look at bent greens you can argue to to maybe not look at fast bent greens but that’s what we’re doing here 10% fast bent green putting 10% good drives gained when the rough is long and and if you remember from Monday night’s show this is exactly what I looked at when in or in last year’s mixed condition model I only had 5% in it but it was actually fairly predictable and with the John Deere classic and TBC deer run the rough is the main defense of the course so I really the more I thought about it the more I liked looking at this good drives gained meaning you know uh if players are hitting the fairways or they are still Adept enough to hit the green From the Rough but you know with this long rough which is the biggest U defense of TPC Deer Run I just the more I thought about it the more I liked what I looked at last year in this regard so I have 10% in good drives gained on long rough hey good evening p uh happy fourth to you as well uh I’m sure you’ll see some occasional flashes of of light and here the fireworks in the background they are already celebrating where I am even though there’s a storm going on too people are crazy uh but happy fourth to you as well hopefully you have some good plans um for it and uh we are at a tournament that is you know relatively local to you so um looking forward to a strong week this week hopefully we’re back on the winning ways 10% opportunities when scoring is easy to par I mentioned this Monday I I really liked opportunity I think the course might be a little bit softer at least the greens might be a little bit softer if that rain does indeed come through generally speaking the John Deere is easy so 10% opportunities 15% in birdies are better game like players are still going to have to make birdies even if I don’t think the winning score is going to get into the 20s like it generally does players are still going to have to go low this course is not difficult might not be as easy as we generally think it is but it’s definitely not difficult so 15% in birdies are better my slight angle this week 5% in total procs the more I looked at total procs the more I thought it was pretty correlating the players who play well here 5% total procs hey wagan happy fourth to you as well hopefully you have some good plans for it um and we are ready for the John Deer classic uh thanks for jumping in chat this evening so don’t mind the flashes of light I’m sure you’ll hear the fireworks U throughout the show in the background here uh as people are already celebrating uh but 5% total procs 5% in total par fours 10% in the par fors 400 to 450 this is just the most important length of par 4 here at TPC Deer Run and then of course to finalize the mixed condition model 15% in the specific length of par fivs in fact all three par fivs on the score card measured to this length they will get shortened or lengthened based on T’s and pins and and whatnot but generally speaking this is where uh about 70 to 75% of The Strokes gain in par fives Falls in this range so I think it’s safe to say we just want to look at this range so there’s a look at the mixed condition model this weekend uh any that’s crazy we we like our fireworks that’s that that is one thing uh about uh about the Hooser state we we uh we go crazy with them fireworks um but there’s a look at the mixed condition model for this week’s John Deere classic uh some areas where I might be weak again if the if we get that rain that we’re expecting the greens might not be raided as fast so you know it would probably a be a more conservative and more safe approach to look at just bent putting but I went with fast bent um if the course does not play as easy as it generally does which I don’t think it will but if it’s not rated as easy per fantasy National I could be a little bit weak with that as well considering I’ve got opportunities and birdies or better when it’s easy uh but there’s a look at the mixed condition model for this week um we move to Microsoft XL the reveal of my rankings and again a quick reminder to those of you who are returning viewers for your information if you’re a new viewer my rankings are based on three criteria the fgc rank which is a you know a straight numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model we just covered in fantasy National the metrics and the percentages in them course value uh which is an attempt at giving a player a numerical value based on how well they’ve played that course in the past 5 years uh do note that since the John Deere classic was canceled in 2020 this is only four years of data only four years 2023 22 21 and 2019 and then the third bit that goes into my rankings um is we are playing DFS we are trying to find unique options so percent owned or projected ownership per fantasy National is also part of my rankings so my rankings go as such for this week’s John Deere classic number one is Lucas Glover champion in 2021 Kevin U Adams Vincent sep straa and sunj round out my top five Aaron Ry Keith Mitchell Bo Hustler Doug gim Justin low round out my top 10 um again no real surprise here even though um couple of these players like Keith Mitchell missed the cut last week uh sunj didn’t play last week Keith Mitchell’s just been generally pretty darn good uh this year it’s really the putter that has betrayed him as you see there uh deep red 130th in this field uh but nothing to complain about ball striking wise top 10 with the iron still third in par fives or at least the length of par fives here at at TPC Deer Run so a lot to like there with Keith Mitchell um vinon who missed the cut last week uh I’m back on Adams Vincent if you can’t tell um I just I think this is a pretty good fit here he’s played well here so no real surprise in the players that are in the top 10 you can always argue uh the ordering perhaps Doug gim might be the biggest shock he’s getting helped by the fact that he seems to be at least per fantasy National pretty unique ball striking has come back to Doug gim uh ways he’s never going to be a good putter he has he will have to be better on the par fivs but you talk about um good drives gained I mean just hitting greens hitting Fairways he’s not the longest player but uh gives himself plenty of opportunities we just have to hope that the putter uh cooperates uh and by op rating meaning field average cuz he’s never going to spike like Denny McCarthy or Brenan Todd or any of these players but otherwise not a whole lot of surprise here for me in the top 10 I mean Justin low last week’s number one player had a decent tournament top 25 or T25 exactly um so we uh let’s move to um sorting on this price board figure out where at least per fantasy National members are gravitating towards in these various areas of the price board and see the players who might be potential pivots so in the five digits in the 10ks we have four players thanks to Patrick kentley’s withdrawal now we have Jordan spe SE straa sunjay and Aaron Ry the interesting part about or interesting uh challenge this week with the John Deere in terms of DFS is that our most expensive player is 10,500 again with Patrick cley’s withdrawal a very very cheap uh top end this week with the John Deere classic you can see I like three of these players fourth fifth and sixth in my rankings I’m just nowhere near Jordan spe he’s not been very good his tournament history here is is extremely solid a two-time winner here but he hasn’t played this tournament for n years and with the Open Championship coming up you know Scottish open there’s been some talk like why are why are bigger names here like Jordan spe like sunjay like Jason day unless they’re trying to work on something in their game now one of those three players I really like and you can probably tell by the rankings but I I just I’m not comfortable with going to speed this week I’m just not even though he is seemingly the pivot in the 10ks I just can’t get there otherwise I mean it it really isn’t going to matter who you choose in the 10ks that are all going to get used um anywhere between 18 to 20% I would not be surprised if all three of these ownerships creep over 20% um in our big gpps sunj does appear to be the most um the most projected owned player um but I would have no reason to to avoid him not a red or pink statistic among the ones that we gathered you see sep straa he’s actually not been great on the par fives of this length this year Ry has not been great on specifically fast bent now yes last week was bent in po Ana but it’s not they they weren’t pure bent I all three of these players will be fine I’m going to go towards sunjay even though he’s the most owned uh at least projected on the Slate I just like where sunjay is going back to the Masters I don’t think people realize this going back to the Masters the only time he’s missed the cut has been in a major literally every other tournament since the Masters he’s top 15 he’s been playing extremely well he just doesn’t have the wind so because of the perceived floor the perceived High floor I’m going to be more uh overweight on sunj I’m still going to have a little bit of straa I’m still going to have a little bit of Aaron Ry the the putter does scare me a little bit with Rye I mean shaka’s been fine but I’m just most confident in sunj and that’s where I’m going this week if I’m in the 10ks I’m building two two pretty distinct types of lineups uh and we’ll cover that you know towards the end of the show but I’m most comfortable with sunjay and the 10ks so I’ll make him my number one player in the five digits uh I’ll probably go St a second Ry third and then I just won’t want any part of Jordan Speak moving into the 9ks MAV Davis Thompson McCarthy jday Mitchell Poston and Stevens despite the fact that Stevens play play very well last week I still I’m still not buying into it yet the iron still haven’t been great um he is more of an off the tea Centric type player uh I’ve only got that at 5% in my mixed condition model now he does take care of par fives and you absolutely have to do that here so um yeah maybe a little bit of a gamble on my end but uh I’m just I’m just not there jday he is certainly very unique in the 9ks I can’t get there again the irons have not been particularly great he is a great putter on bent um but you know the irons have been bad the proximities or the opportunities have been bad the proximity’s been bad like I just I can’t get there even at a 4% Jason day literally everybody else in the 9ks is fine it’s fine I’m not crazy about it McNeely Thompson McCarthy these guys are all going to be very popular in terms of DFS uh we’ll see some of these players on my betting card later tonight and that’s that’s the exposure that I’m choosing to take with a lot of these players but in terms of DFS they’re just extremely popular and because the 10ks are so cheap I just I much rather just go into the 10ks particularly sunjay but I would just much rather go into the 10ks if I’m up here in the upper nines yeah Davis Thompson’s been playing very well he he plays well when it’s easy he’s probably the one player that you know kind of concerns me the most but he’s also the most um projected owned of these upper nines McCarthy’s probably the one that has the best Spike ability uh or chance to win just because of his putter but man his irons haven’t been as great lately so I’m just I you know I’ll have each one of these guys maybe a time or two but this is this whole region here is just kind of a fade for me uh and really the entire nines is really kind of a fade I’ll talk about Mitchell and Poston here in a second but especially these three I’m going to be pretty pretty far underweight on these three specifically cuz they’re looking like they’re going to be pretty popular I would much rather just go into the 10ks cuz it’s the the 10ks are just so cheap particularly Sun J sha even so in the upper nines I’d probably make Thompson my top player just because of the way he’s been playing lately but I think the one that has the best chance to to win I think is Denny McCarthy because of the putter I I think uh talking about Keith Mitchell and posting I’m going to have some Keith Mitchell it he burned me last week you know you just got to believe that the that he’ll make some putts some you’re not asking for a lot um and if he doesn’t he’ll struggle again like he did last week but everything other than the putter is pretty darn good yeah the birdies are better when it’s easy isn’t great but irons have been have been great the par five performance has been great top 10 off the te top 15 in procs like it’s literally just about the Putter and then the other side of the coin the inverse almost of Keith Mitchell is Poston who again I’ll have maybe a time or two but the irons haven’t been good for him he hasn’t been good on the par FES he has been good with the putter now Poston won this two years ago he’s got a pretty good course history okay but both of these players have flaws that make me a little hesitant to commit to uh and put them in a lot of lineups this is more of a uh covering myself making sure I have them in one or two lineups as opposed to really gravitating towards them so in in all honesty the entire 9k region is a fade for me understand by me saying that’s a fade I’m going to have these guys once or twice but I’m not going to part make them a part of my core especially considering how um uh how chalky they appear to be moving into the eights I really like Kevin Yu I know we just talked about the Putter and and Keith Mitchell but um Kevin Yu played here one time he finished sixth he also gained eight Strokes that week you can’t expect that at all you just you cannot expect that but the he is shown in a very small sample size that that he was able to read these greens well he spiked and that’s what you’re looking for you’re looking for the ability to spike so Kevin U has shown that specifically here at the John Deere classic despite the fact that his putter is generally wul you see number two number two in irons in this field top 10 in Opportunities fourth off the te those guys a ball striking extraordinaire again like Keith Mitchell you’re just hoping that he has a decent putting week and by decent means field average gain one and he’s going to be pretty darn solid for you so I really like Kevin Yu I like Lucas Glover a lot I do worry that he might be a little bit more popular uh then this 11% that fantasy national projects just because he’s a former winner here but the course value I mean he just loves playing here the irons have still been good he’s probably a little bit better putter now that he has the broomstick um than what is showing here second in good drives gained third in Opportunities third in proximity it’s off your screen but third in proximity a lot to like with Lucas Glover and if he’s anywhere less than maybe 14% I’d be happy 14 to 16% sync starts to get a little bit much but considering the fact that I’m fading the 9ks I’m going to have my fair share of Lucas Glover the amateur Luke Clinton a lot of things line up for him pretty well and of course he’s hot coming off a fantastic uh rocket morgage Eric Cole could be interesting this week we talk about Eric Cole and he’s the number one birdi or better guy when it’s easy um he’s he gets a bunch of birdies he’ll get some bogeys too cuz the irons haven’t been good you know great I think they’re a little bit better than this um and you know he get he can get a little bit Wayward off the te he can get a little bit Wayward off the te but you know it’s the fact that he can just get a bunch of birdies because he’s a pretty good putter so I like Eric Cole Adam vincon another player that I really really like I’m shocked that he’s sub 10% I guess people are off of him from his performance last week give me all the Adams Vincent I can handle if he is indeed sub 10% irons are still fine he’s a very good putter on bent very good putter in general plenty of opportunities he demolishes this length of par fors I really like Adams Vincent this week I do um Hustler pretty unique irer unserious um but number one par five guy also a good putter should be good pretty unique hey good evening Darnell thanks for jumping in chat happy fourth to you hopefully you have some fun plans for tomorrow uh thanks for jumping in chat uh yeah let’s go we’re going to be trying to uh to get back on the winning ways it’s been a rough couple of weeks admittedly for me so we’re going to try and turn our fortunes around so yeah in the 8ks I mean I didn’t even talk about Nick Dunlap he should be fine he’s going to be popular but Nick Dunlap should be fine I mean demolishes par FES which you have to do here um hubard Power fine uh I just didn’t mention them because they’re pretty pretty popular instead like like I said Kevin U at 9% I’m afraid Lucas Glover will be a little bit more popular than 11% that fantasy national projects but he is the number one player in my in my rankings I I do like Lucas lover and give me all the Adams Vincent I can handle if he is indeed 10% Like I just I I I’m not scared off by last week’s performance from Adams Vincent so there’s look at the eights move to the upper sevens you know again Ben Griffin with the with the eye issue it hasn’t prevented him from playing well um or at least you know making some Cuts lately anytime I know a player is dealing with something I’m just going to chy away um and if if Ben Griffin plays well I’ll lose I accept that I mean the irons have been very good he’s generally a better putter but that’s you know another reason why I’m taking a very very cautious approach on B Griffin um because the putter if you if you’re if you’re not able to see or not able to see at your best Adam shank should be fine course value is is off the charts uh irons haven’t been very good this year especially lately so that is reason you know cause for concern the putter is always good on bent can go low when it’s easy I do like some Adam shank especially at 7% Doug gim talking about the inverse of shank great P great irons no putting you got to hope that he he putts well but I’ll have some Doug gim this week I’m back on the Rio hits atsun train like I was last week at the rocket mortgage number one in par fours from 400 to 450 we know how important those are at John Deere third and birdies are better when it’s easy the irons’s been good I I I like a lot with Rio hits atsun so much like the 8ks you know Adam shank I’m going to be using Doug gim I’m going to be using hits at Sun and that’s why I’m fading the nines because I I can I can find some some uniqueness elsewhere mid six or excuse me mid sevens Neil Shipley this guy hasn’t done anything wrong um I understand Luke Clanton was competitive you know or you know competing to win last week Neil Shipley hadn’t done anything wrong he’s getting a little bit of ownership sure but um you look at the performance of the Masters and and at the US Open I like Neil Shipley this week uh Andrew Novak’s a little bit too um owned or too chalky for my liking particularly because the putter on bent hasn’t been great and not necessarily the best um at birdies when it’s uh when it’s easy so Novak’s a fade for me and a full fade so if Novak this is where I’m planning my flag if Novak plays well I will lose this is my bold call or whatever I’m not playing any Andrew Novak be steamed up so much I mean he could be again all I can go by is is these projections on FY National people do seem to be coming around on Rio hits atsun so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is indeed a little bit more than this 10 12% darell but I mean there’s a lot to like here so I’m going to be using him um but but you have plenty of options here in the uh upper and mid sevens uh again I know you play Yahoo so I don’t know what the pricing is over there but you know if these are the same players that are around his price point you got plenty of options that you don’t have have to use him uh by any means um moving into the low I mean like yeah I’m sorry in the mid in the mid sevens Neil Shipley is really the only one I I’m interested in you can maybe think about Burger but uh him missing the cut last week I I used him a little bit in the in the 150 contest and it didn’t P pan out so just still a little gun shy until we get uh more consistency from Daniel Burger um in the low sevens there’s several players what do you think about uh Luke Clinton I mean he’s fine he’s just popular at least per fantasy National I mean he’s he’s at 11 11% uh if he’s been price that’s that seems like a horrendous mispricing um you almost kind of have to use him but I would not be surprised if he’s very popular at the Min price but at M price I mean gez you could squeeze in whatever you wanted up top considering it’s so cheap up there so yeah I mean it’s fine I don’t I I I don’t mind it at all I’ll be using some Luke Clinton uh not as much as some others just because I think he will be fairly popular but I yeah that just seems like a horrible mispricing on Yahoo’s part um yeah coming back down to these low low sevens there’s several and I mean several players in here that I like and that’s this is the kind of the area of the price board where I’m going to take a lot of chances not going to be really all in on anybody down here uh just going to kind of scatter take the scatter shot approach if you will um and try to hit on one of these guys uh let’s talk about Jacob Bridgeman uh sub 10% good irons par fivs he’s been great you got to take advantage of those he’s been a decent putter on Fast bent greens as well proximity pretty solid so I like Jacob Bridgeman he’s somebody to think about Joel Damon’s gonna get a lot of attention probably for decent reason he’s been playing pretty well but I would be a little bit cautious on Joel Damon you see this course value he’s not been very good here uh and the putter hasn’t been great so I would be quite cautious on Joel Damon I understand why you somebody would like him but I think there’s enough in the low sevens that you don’t have to use Joel Damon I’m back on shkim again I know it didn’t work last week I know this course value is not great I I’m just a believer in sh Kim and his game goes low he gets plenty of birdies gets plenty of Bogies but he gets plenty of birdies par fives are good fast bent greens he’s putt well so I like sh Kim of course Justin low being 10th uh in my rankings when to use plenty of him he is getting some attention um so maybe not as much on Justin low but still going to use him you can look at Dylan woo um he topped 10 last week uh as a very unique play one of the few players that I got right last week was Dylan woo I was very high on him um I I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be serviceable again this week Rico Hoy I think is pretty solid for this week uh MC Meisner Chan Kim both of those players I kind of like at 7,000 even I do love hkim I do um I mean analytically what’s other than the fact that his irons and I think the irons are better than what is being shown here let’s go to Fantasy National just very very quickly cuz I really do think his irons are better than what has been showing let’s go to sh Kim real quick I’ll change the page view like he’s a decent putter yeah PO is his preferred surface but the decent putter maybe not the best in the wind but you can argue that the John Deere I mean John Deere is not difficult so you don’t have to worry about that his ball striking hasn’t been good extremely lately I get that but it wasn’t too long ago like you know around the Master’s time I know he didn’t play in the Masters but look at the ball striking before that the irons were fine they were fine he’s never been much of an off the tea guy and the putter is hot right now I mean red hot right now so yeah I I I do love me some sh Kim um and if he doesn’t play well I’ll lose but um he’s also he’s I can all you can always count on him being pretty unique as well and again it’s not like I’m putting him in every lineup again remember with these low sevens I’m I’m I’m taking shots at several different players that’s why I’m throwing out so many different um different uh players because I’ve got a pretty tight core uh up in the you know 10 and eights that I’m just scatter shotting the low sevens you know I’ll have some Bridgeman I’ll take a shot on sh Kim I’ll have a a Damon maybe maybe I’ll have Justin low Johnny Vegas Johnny Vegas has been very good here in two trips in the past 5 years plenty of irons good drives gained I mean he’s plenty long as well um but Johnny Vegas is is somebody else that I’m going to take a shot on again Rico hoey MC Meisner Chan Kim like Chan Kim look at this eighth and irons first and birdies are better when it’s easy with a c tied with a couple other players but J game will get plenty of birdies as well so I’m just going to take a big big uh scatter shot approach on these low sevens not going to really focus in on any one player and I’m going to hope that some of these guys hit um probably getting off the Joel Damon chalk he’s all over the place if his player isn’t red hot he’ll miss the cut I mean that’s what happened last week sure uh you gained Strokes on the green and still missed the cut you’re right um but that that’s the risk that I’m willing to take again cuz I play many many lineups so can afford to take a chance on a guy like that if you’re only playing one or two lineups then yeah maybe not probably not but I play several lineups so I can take I can take a chance on throwing him in a lineup or two um moving to the sixes there are a couple of players that I do want to highlight for you all um in the sixes I wouldn’t go crazy with it though but again remember this top half or this this five digit yeah it’s absolutely a hedge playay five digits area is cheap extremely cheap so you don’t have to come into the sixes you don’t I will mention a couple of names for you all uh in case you all want to get uh a little bit more greedy or build some stars and scrubs um Again David skins a pretty solid play last week be pretty useful although he’s not the best in the wind so be aware of that um you can take a look at him Harry Hall again rated out fairly well a lot of that’s based on being the number one putter on Fast bent not in love with Harry Hall but I would I I I don’t want to uh ignore him Kelly C if you’re looking for players that are generally in good form Kelly craft top 10 in irons good putter uh hasn’t been the best here but it’s okay the one the the mad scientist play for me this week in the 6ks we’re going to see him a lot later tonight on my most used players my betting card mad scientist plays Alex SMY guys three for three here at the John Deere classic the irons are better than what’s showing here and the fact that he is a horrendous putter horrendous putter but he’s actually been field average at the John Deere and it’s not a small sample size like Kevin you he’s got three tournaments under his belt here there’s something about these greens that he’s comfortable with I can’t say he’s good he’s comfortable with good drives gained first in Opportunities number one in Opportunities de very good on these short par fours so the mad scientist player this week is Alex SMY uh he is the one player in the 6ks that I’ll use more often than these others that I mentioned if he doesn’t play well I’ll lose but I’m going to have a decent amount of exposure to Alex SMY especially since I think he’s going to be pretty darn unique so there’s a look at the price board where at least the members of fantasy Nationals seem to be going and some potential pivots around them let’s start making some lineups we’ll start with uh those who play tiers contest uh tier one we only have two options thanks to Patrick klay’s withdraw tier one we have Jordan speed or sep straa I I don’t care it’s sep staka for me I want no part of spe if he plays well you know I’ll lose whatever um I’m just not confident in it so give me sep straa in tier one tier two sunjay Ry McNeely Davis Thompson Jason day very clear sunjay for me uh at least in tier two uh I mean all four of these players are going to be pretty popular so I imagine I imagine he might not be the most owned in that tier and he probably will be just because of the name recognition but I don’t think his ownership’s going to be so prohibitive uh that you have to think about fading I’m just give me sun J in tier two I’m just pretty confident in it tier three McCarthy Mitchell Poston Dunlap not crazy hasn’t done anything in three years I can’t say three years but he’s not been good lately you’re you’re not wrong with that he’s not been good in the immediacy um I don’t know about tier three I wish I could just skip it um all these players have reasons to take them and all four of these players have reasons to avoid them like Keith Mitchell’s putter is just woeful Nick Dunlap probably like the most conservative in this range the the highest floor but the lowest ceiling in my mind mind McCarthy to me still has the biggest Spike ability just because of his putter because of that probably take McCarthy but you can you can sell me on taking any one of these four and you can convince me not to take any of these four I’m just I’m just not there I I just I don’t I don’t know give me mcarthy I don’t know this is one a b c and d for me I just don’t have a strong feeling on tier three tier four Sam Stevens Kevin hu Lucas Glover Luke Clinton Eric Cole Mark hover Adams Vincent if the ownerships are anything like what is what fantasy Nationals projecting gim me’s Adams Vincent very very high on Adams Vincent Kevin you could be interesting as well if you want a a quote safer Play It’s Lucas Glover Luke CL is also fine in this tier but give me Adams Vincent I think I think Vincent is going to be shock some people this week give me Vincent in tier four tier five Sheamus boosler Ben Griffin Rogers shank and thorby Orson uh yeah give me shake that’s fine uh Sheamus power probably fine play but he’s going to be the most chalky play in the tier and because we’ve taken sunj and we took deny McCarthy yeah give me Adam Shan in tier five and then tier six we go chain Kim Nick Hardy Springer SMY skins CIO and TW chain Kim is quite interesting I don’t want you to ignore chain Kim if you play multiple tiers lineups you might want to have some exposure to chain Kim but the mad scientist play this week is Alex SMY so he’s my choice this tier Construction goes straa sunj Denny McCarthy tier four is Adams Vinson tier five is Adam shank tier six is Alex SMY all right let’s move to Classic lineups figure out how we can maneuver around all of this Chalk in our big gpps and find a way to bring in a good payday this week um for or if we’re going to try to to build some chalky lineups to know what we’re trying to work against I’m going to start with sunjay only because he’s the most projected owned for Fantasy National insert straa or Ry whoever you think is going to be the most popular player but I’ll just use sunjay because he’s projected to be the most owned and this is the player that I like the most so we’re going to be using some sunjay as well and in the lineups um to try to um you know get some uniqueness but we’ll go sunj and then it’s Davis Thompson um at 96 and then moving down into the eight like Sheamus pow getting a lot of a lot of attention uh no one in the 6ks at least per fantasy National okay I take that back Troy Merritt is right at 10% in the 6ks so at least per fantasy National if our fellow contestants are moving into the uh 6ks it looks to be Troy Merritt skins is at 8% kazy’s at 8% um Kohl’s and craft are also at 8% so there is a little bit of play in the 8% or in the 6ks but it looks like majority of our fellow contestants at least per fantasy National seem to be stopping at Justin low or even Joel Damon so uh we might have to come off Davis Thompson a little bit but if this is Joel Damon at 73 yeah we’re definitely going to have to come off of him Andrew Novak at 75 who is a complete full fade for me this could be a 6K so we could be looking at a at um the shell of a chalky lineup here but I’m trying not to go into the um 6ks considering it doesn’t appear that many um or at least fantasy National isn’t projecting many people to go in there and so this is looking like the shell of a chalky lineup here um sunj choose whatever nine could be posted maybe Mitchell maybe they come down a little bit to Dunlap or maybe they could be using a Davis Thompson and choose whatever um choose whatever 6K so there’s one iteration the other would be Davis Thompson or McNeely or McCarthy choose whichever I’m just using Thompson because he’s the projected most owned they come off of um maybe they come off of Shipley this is Novak Damon and then this was Troy Meritt this is leaving 200 on the table but similar U level of ownership here if they are coming down into the sixes um the other way that it seems like lineups are getting built perhaps as a more balanced look uh we use Thompson so let’s use McNeely we’ll go McNeely Keith Mitchell uh Mark hub’s going to be popular Sheamus is probably in here as well yeah Sheamus well that’s a little bit too much we’ll go Shipley or Novak uh hits atsun is getting a little bit as well let’s go Novak in fact this is Novak Shipley uh Damon just the same crew of people again leaving a little bit on the table but again a very very very similar level of ownership here more of a balanced look instead of going into the 10ks are going maybe double nines or or a high nine and 28s so how are we going to combat all of this chalk well for me I’ve been building two very very distinct lineups the first is again I’ve been using sunj who is the projected most owned player but I’ve been getting a little bit more greedy considering I’m willing to come down to Alex SMY the mad scientist play and I gave you so many choices and players to think about down here in the low sevens Bridgeman sub 10% sh Kim sub three% Johnny vegas8 and a half% Dylan woo Rico Hoy uh Chan Kim so uh several several several options down here depending on how many times you want to come down into the low sevens will kind of dictate what you’re willing to do up top you can easily go as Sun Jay and Aaron Ry if you’re willing to come down into the low sevens along with a 6K like SMY uh let’s throw Rico Hoy into this who’s you know was solid last week I don’t see this playing a whole lot different than the rocket mortgage and you’re still up in the upper sevens for two spots you can you can come into the low eights if you want maybe you like a Sheamus or Mark Hub Eric Cole could be interesting I’m not necessarily as high on Bo Hustler but Bo Hustler Elite putting Ben Griffin Adam shank so if we go something like Adam shank at least this 8,000 even Ben Griffin not too much there let’s drop a little bit let’s say Doug gim irons team no putt sure but uh you’re at least going on a narrative of the putting isn’t going to be as big of a deal because Aaron ry’s not a good putter Doug gim not a good putter Alex M is not a good putter you’re at least going on this narrative here and then 8100 is Bo Hustler who is a good putter but you know that gives you an idea that you can you can use these double 10 or a 10 and a nine pretty darn easily depending on how much you’re willing to flirt with those low sevens and you see this ownership mean 65% cumulative that’s pretty darn solid this is probably a unique lineup uh sunj and Aron Ry might not be the most uh unique combination you’re probably setting yourself up for a 4v4 but um you know Alex SMY and Doug gim ball striking extraordinaires Hustler’s been playing okay lately so you know this is one way you can combat the chalk uh if you’re willing to to maybe drop into the sixes combine it with a low seven do a double 10 do a sun J up uh mcne Sun Jana straa something to that effect but the way I’ve been going most about this I’ve been building balance lineups with a lot of these unique plays at the center of it is Adams Vincent he might he might be here but I’m just inserting him there for now um again I mentioned how I would use a little bit of McNeely I’ll use a little bit of Thompson maybe a McCarthy I honestly don’t mind starting a lineup or two with Keith Mitchell or JT potion and really just hammering these eights I love a lot in the eights so you know we’ll go Lucas Glover number uh sorry he goes here Lucas Glover Kevin Yu I mean we got three spots in 8100 here we can throw in an Adam shank uh come down to a Rio hits at Sun or a Doug gim uh spawn if you’re there Burger I’m not necessarily as much in love with Jacob Bridgeman who I mentioned this is 9300 again this is that Keith Mitchell but you can mix and match this very easily you know if you’re if you’re extremely high on a Luke Clinton at um at 85 86 86 I mean shoot you know take one of these two off maybe Glover cuz he might be a little bit more chalky than 11% um but if you’re really high on Clinton like there you go that’s a sub 60% uh ownership cumulative ownership lineup this probably unique this is probably unique if you’re willing to build a balanced lineup and just fade the entirety of the five digits and upper nines which I’m willing to do I I just McNeely Thompson McCarthy these guys just don’t excite me all that much I am pretty high on sunj so I’ll have my fair share of sunj lineups but anytime I’m not using a sunj I’m building you know this kind of this kind of lineup here and just mixing matching with Vincent and Kevin U and Lucas Glover I’ll throw in some Luke Clinton I’ll throw in some Eric Cole as well into this you know maybe like if I’ll do if I do one lineup like this the next lineup I might I might switch it up do a do um put in a poon do a Lucas Glover and that leaves me a little bit more for Eric Cole but you see the the the idea behind all this is that I have my very very tight core and then I’m just trying to to find the right combination of two guys maybe three guys in that lineup that um that’ll hit um who do I like more than Damon I like several more than Damon even though Damon rid it out extremely well I don’t it’s not that I hate Damon I I like him he finished he was 20th in my rankings I don’t like him at least in big gpps cuz he’s going to be popular but in a in a single entry it makes a lot of sense it does issue has been his putter the irons have been great opportunities second behind Alex SMY been great with proximity second in proximity it’s right off your screen the issues been the putter this can turn into putting contest and his his history here isn’t the best let me show you Damon just very very quickly it’s it’s not good his course history here so I understand why people like him because he finished runner up in 2018 but look at the look at this performance otherwise miscut miscut miscut so the players around his price that I like again sh K is same price we talked about him earlier Justin low what’s wrong with Justin low he’s been great he coming off a top 25 I mentioned Jacob Bridgeman Bridgeman’s good on this surface he’s not necessarily the the name recognition but he’s been playing really really well L his irons have been better than Damon in the last three months someone to think about there um Johnny Vegas if you’re a big believer in course history Johnny Vegas is two for two the past five years here Brennan Todd’s been very good although here he’s been very good here although you look at the irons they haven’t been very good lately so I’d be worried on Brandon Todd but just highlighting the the the guys that have been good here like Johnny Vagas if you’re a big believer in course history but I like Johnny Vegas Justin low Dylan woo Rico Hoy um MC Meisner Chan Kim all these guys around his price even Neil Shipley nothing wrong with Neil Shipley so hopefully that gives you an answer or or a few possible names that you can maneuver around Joel Damon um I got a couple questions answer but feel free to put any more questions in the chat uh poll question how much are you factoring last week’s performance for those who played I’m in general agreement with the community here uh the winner was uh a little so you’re factoring in in a little uh I’m somewhere between a little and not at all um with putting contests like the rocket mortgage can turn into like the John Deere can turn into into putting is such a volatile and fickle statistic I just want to see the guys who have been ball striking it well lately and hope that they hit you know they Spike with their putter so my technical answer would be a little but I’m much more in the not at all uh side of that answer um so there’s that one and done um I used pendri last week that was that was not good was is not a good choice however I did move up in the rankings or in the standings uh because so many people use Tom Kim so at least I gained a little bit of money this week my first click was Adams Vincent um it it just seems like people are off of zincon because of his bad performance last week and like I just said I I’m I’m looking for the players who are generally still in good form ball striking and putting contests I mean putting is just fickle so and Vincent’s pretty darn good on bent like pure bent so my first click was Vincent I have a couple other options I haven’t used sunj or I have used sunjay actually I mean I could use Aaron Ry I guess but he’s probably going to be one of the more uh chosen people for one and done I imagine Davis Thompson will be chosen a lot for one and done McCarthy probably going to be chosen quite a bit for one and done um Kevin u a little little bit too volatile with the putter for my liking although this is the kind of player I need to start probably think about using um if I want to threaten to win my division but my first click on one and done was Adam spinson I feel pretty good with it I I I’m pretty confident this week in Adams Vincent famous last words you can at me whenever he misses the cut but uh one and done for me is Adams Vincent uh but that’s what I have for you all in terms of a DFS tactic show for the John Deere thanks to P awaken and Darnell for jumping in chat very much appreciated thanks to everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it love what I do taking an in-depth look at the golf statistics and trying to help us win a little bit of money in the process a lot of weeks or some weeks better than others we’re going to try to get back on the winning ways considering it’s been a rough couple of weeks for me reminder that I am going to be over in gabes substack chat here momentarily if you’re not subscribed to his article his handle is in the description um you’re really missing out on a lot of of good DFS discussion over there as well so I highly suggest you follow me on over there uh happy fourth to everybody uh be safe enjoy the fireworks enjoy all the good food and Grilling out and all that um and yeah happy Independence Day to this great country of ours for all the Wagers you have made this week for the John Deere classic for all the defs contests you play this week for the John Deere classic for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
