Take aim at TPC Deere Run with our PGA DFS preview & best bets for the 2024 John Deere Classic!
Can Aaron Rai (20-1) rally from a near-win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, or will Sungjae Im (14-1) steal the show?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for Silvis, Ill., on “The 19th Hole (S4 E26).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:57 Rocket Mortgage Classic Reaction + Tarps Off?
06:23 What Are We Drinking?
10:23 Caddy Notes: TPC Deere Run Breakdown + Tournament Preview
14:51 Club Twirls: 2024 John Deere Classic Best Bets
33:05 No Trunk Slams: 2024 John Deere Classic DFS Core Plays & Fades
47:53 Final Picks + The Hat Pick
50:49 Plugs + Outro
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✖️ Follow the hosts of the program on Twitter/X:
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the 19th hole we are live on in between media we are sports we are lifestyle and everything in between make sure you like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell for notifications we have had two weeks in a row of Birdie Fest birdies everywhere except for Sunday last week which was a little bit windy and cold either way we’re going to the quad cities in Illinois right on the Iowa border for the John Deere classic you better stay tuned for this one it’s going to be fun we’re going to get right into it here [Music] [Music] [Music] well Connor we have reached another stop along the birdie train in Molen Illinois is that where it is uh it’s in Illinois it’s rural Illinois silvus silvus take another drive on my big green tractor H we should just talk in country accents the whole show would be awesome oh that’s easy where I come from we all talk like this we got some folks in the chat already this is great we’re already starting off good on a not not very exciting golf tournament so pour went out for our baby angel auction baa two straight weeks of heartbreak well guess what he’s 22 and he’s still really good at golf and I think the couple weeks off he’s going to take are going to be really good for him uh regroup uh hey he he was pretty upfront about it pressure was on he got nervous his birdie putt that was big the big sweeper left it way short that was the one that killed him you can’t be leaving yourself a four-footer knee knocker left to right break for par to force a playoff you you he would he was hoping that either the birdie put was going to go in or that he had a tap in to force the playoff he got neither got in his head and You Yank A putt like that it’s over let it’s curtains for o batia and it let a guy who we were on in DFS but not necessarily betting wise Cam Davis congrats on his second PJ to our win both in Detroit uh poor one out rock shet though uh subscribe to the whole damn Channel Seth says yeah yeah that’s what I said verbatim actually he come back stronger though like I think he’s he’s a mentally strong dude yeah and I think I think he I think he needs a couple of bumps and bruises you know what I mean like I it feels like he’s either like right there winning or he’s like out of contention completely so I think the more he gets in the hunt the better he’s gonna get and yeah now he’s I’m gonna miss him at the baruda in a couple weeks because he’s going to be at the open are you going to the Barracuda I thinking about it depends on how my weekend Stacks up last last year was nice because I pretty much had a whole day to myself and brought Addison up the hill she wanted to come with me for some reason and so it was really hot even up in the mountains there where usually we go to escape the heat it was in the mid 90s and at that elevation that day and it was it was hard cuz it’s like you get a lot of sun up at that elevation it it Heats you up quick yeah well I would if I were you I’d be doing anything to get out of that heat cuz what what you 105 degrees 110 today and uh with this is the first of six days in a row of 110 plus tomorrow is going to be 113 and so I did tease the show I think we have fewer viewers than ever before because I did threaten to be shirtless um all I had to do unfortunately for the people who tuned in to see me shirtless was turn the ceiling fan up to a higher setting it’s not quite on tornado uh helicopter mode but it’s the one right below that we got a lot of show left though we get get the juices going that shirt might be coming off it’s 5:30 Pacific it’s Peak heat right now I think it just ticked up to 111 uh it’s it’s a dry heat that’s it that’s the consolation prize is I’m not sweating I’m just dying from the inside out like it like if I put myself in a giant air fryer it would take a huge air fryer but this what it feels like I think you and I both should do a show with no shirts on I think the people I think we got to give the people what they want Tim definitely wants it I we never doubted Tim Burke wanting a shirtless show the I did not read that comment before I said what I said so starting to share a brain with people apparently yeah and we don’t want to get the Tims mixed up we don’t want to and Tim Burke obviously wants it to happen but Tim Welch we need to we need to get you in the chat uh we want he wants oxa to get his glasses prescription checked at the optometrist soon uh good good advice maybe that’s something um but yeah get a shorter broomstick I don’t know Connor does not like to take off his shirt yeah you say that before he’s got some drinks in him Chelsea I will I will I mean when when it’s easy to fool people though because when you take off your shirt you’re still wearing a sweater that’s true and like I was going to tell you when you’re a physical specimen much like myself I know you appreciate the the troubles that come with that I can’t just be roaming around town with my shirt off like we’re going to need a bigger bunson burner for this specimen possibly the biggest I just keep gaining weight and so like I found I found all the weight that all of you lost combined my pool gets smaller every time my fat ass gets in it so yeah they I they call that displacement less water more surface area yeah well are you drinking anything I’m uh I’m going with a little uh tried and trusted standby that actually sounds good right over here in this general direction the Rocky Mountain Cold filtered silver bullets I I am actually going to go with a bottle I just scored at the local liquor store they had they had some Blandon Single Barrel I got the letter B because I don’t have that letter yet and I do one day maybe in 20 years when I have all the staves collected get the get the big plank from them for free after you spend over $1,000 on all the bottles of Blandon to to get do security escort you out when you have a bottle of Blandon in California do you have like two security guards that like walk you to your car no cuz right next to it was a papy vanwinkle and they cared a lot more about that than a little bit of Blandon and they were selling the BL the the papy for like a couple thousand so it was it was something we uh we we compromised they put it in a a black plastic bag so it was it was incognit ah back uh back like back when you used to purchase those videos I don’t know what you’re talking about Connor Enlighten us oh I have to return some videotapes B Be Kind Rewind Dee with an updated name yeah Dee placed an order with Big Time flavor Co this last week and I hope she’s enjoying it thanks for the business Dei we appreciate you how could you not enjoy it your stuff I I don’t give you enough credit for how good your stuff is everybody drop the drop the link do you remember the website no I know the website I Haven it saved on my phone why don’t you just have the link underneath your name I should BigTime flavor. Co there you go right there for everyone in the chat you can go to that website new product just dropped my collaboration with my my friend Anthony fluffy Hernandez top 10 middle weight in the world in UFC he’s going to be fighting at the sphere this September for Mexican Independence Day first ever sporting event at the Los Vegas sphere oh Chelsea Chelsea knows what’s up but yeah I’m going to be going to the sphere to watch Anthony fight uh uh Pereira not the Pereira that just head kicked a dude into Oblivion but the other Brazilian Pereira in the middleweight division uh and Fluffy’s going to choke him out I already I already posted some smack talk on Instagram in Portuguese I said go to sleep Pereira I know it’s not a UFC show but with the disappointment of uh the McGregor um Chandler fight getting canceled I thought this card was going to be a bust there were some really good fights on it it was strong yeah so I am collaborating with fluffy on a new seasoning blend called lcck rub and yes it is everything it implies it is a poultry seasoning because fluffy famously has a pet rooster named elcock pretty pretty literal and uh he has his own gold chain and he has cowboy boots and he has a sombrero and so we’re paying aage to the to the chicken himself and it’s a really good blend it’s kind of like tahen meets uh like Montreal chicken seasoning so it’s like really versatile you can cook any kind of poultry in it and I actually added elcock rub to Pico Deo and it was incredible I need to get some of that and I need to get some of your Green Envy yes o that’s a fan favorite already ready well now that we’ve done an infomercial for how good you’re Let’s uh let’s I mean this the John Deere classic is great I like watching it it’s it’s a fun tournament to watch on TV especially for nerds like us that have been talking up these less orn names for a couple of years uh you’re going to want to stay tuned after this drop for cadd notes with Connor coflin at TPC Deer Run [Music] all right Connor TPC Deer Run take it away John Deere classic TPC Deer Run in silvus Illinois depending it it could be syis it could be some other rural a city but so par 71 7289 yards bent grass Fairways bent grass greens I think we said this a lot last year it’s a pretty unremarkable course um with a fairly unremarkable field um I would expect a lot of volatility though random names popping up this week course itself is pretty damn getable uh a lot like last week some of the same skill set applies should be a birdie Fest barring any kind of extreme weather changes if there’s anything to be aware of it’s a lot of tree line Fairways so a little control off the T be preferable but hasn’t typically been a maker break the greens are uh pretty damn big um but they do have a lot of challenging slopes and undulation to them which is possibly it’s really like maybe the only defense uh is the elevation changes the slopes and the undulations throughout this course but pretty damn easy course um I think it’s a pretty boring course yeah but it is it is neat from the standpoint that we get to see a lot of names that are going to be competing so we’re going to get four rounds out of guys that we talk about every week but um you know are a little less known and we’ll talk about some of them in a little bit couple nice things with the weather the weather it’s this whole part of the world has been uh pretty moist lately so the cour is the course is going to be pretty soft and receptive we’re going to keep getting a little moisture throughout the week wind is going to be around but it’s uh sustained around 10 miles an hour every day you’re going to have some Us in the low teens low mid teens over the weekend but shouldn’t be anything super crazy um we’ve definitely had worse conditions over the last eight weeks or so so that’s all I really know about I’m pretty sure not to interrupt you actually I’m am going to interrupt you please interrupt me Dei I believe with this uh with this investment in the show wants the shirts to come [Laughter] off Dei uh maybe confirm that blink twice if you’re in danger well at least you got the hat backwards we’re we’re matching now we’re getting going go Deee it’s your birthday thank you Dee so yeah I I do think this this course is right for the taking especially if the weather cooperates with a little bit of moisture especially on Thursday uh the weather last week played favorites with birdie making up until Sunday when the temperatures plummeted in the wind picked up it made those par fives unreachable I don’t think that’s going to happen this week I think you’re going to see some warm weather uh with some thunderstorms that can soften the course out even more uh this could be like a few years ago when the winning score is 27 under I think Michael Kim did that in 2019 uh yes Royal that is the best idea uh super donators putting the super stickers in the chat donating to uh offset DD’s investment in our stripping tonight it is really hot here and I’m sure in even South Dakota it’s at least 65 degrees you’re not too far off actually I’m pretty good at this uh overall I think that we’re going to see some really good scoring this week and this field is very talented and don’t don’t take it even though Patrick Klay dropped out even though Sun JM is the betting favorite that we’re going to start by talking about in a little bit there’s so much talent this field that people are going to find out about and you might as well throw a little bit of money on this week don’t risk too much but I think that I think if you threw a couple threw a couple shekels on some of these lesser known names with really strong betting odds you can you can make some a really good chunk of change this week uh following Our advice uh with that being said let’s bet on some golf Connor I’d love to you’d love to Let’s to some clubs [Music] y so did you did you see it last week I posted on Twitter I I posted my own club twirl I went to the range I had a really really rough day and I was just stressed out it was a crazy day and all I wanted to to do once the sun kind of set a little bit and cooled off I went to the driving range and I got a large bucket of balls and I just let the big dog eat and so if you want to see a real Club balls yeah yeah I had to I you know he had a carbo load before you get the large bucket uh but yeah I did pretty much I just swung as hard as I could and and I was hitting the ball pretty well honestly and that’s as soon as I play on the real course it’s that’s not going to be any where to be found yeah we don’t we don’t talk about the show at all beforehand but but we’re always there to critique each other’s golf swings so but I appreciate it like one of my best friends is a teaching pro uh up up in NorCal here um back in our hometown and he was like hey I need to get some of your stuff from the website and I was like I’ll trade you for some lessons he goes dude you’re were the captain when I was a when I was a freshman in high school and I was like yeah and you’re way better than me now you’re teaching golf now and just because you weren’t good as a 14-year-old doesn’t mean I’m any good as a 37-year-old it’s like it’s a long time in between there and I need your help and he goes you got a deal dude I I swear to God I was infinitely better as a young person like at the older I get everything freaking hurts like uh we did you’re way older than me so I I get it I mean it’s a cautionary tale when I listen to you talk about it Sunday I did 18 18 in the Sim and then uh took an hour break we played some golden tea and then had a tea time and at real golf played another 18 let me tell you how good don’t let Connor challenge you to a game of golden tea he will smoke you I am pretty good you’re really freaking good at Golden tea if only you carried that over to the golf course uh it was the golden tea world championship this past weekend I was not in attendance but yeah spared them I spared them I let somebody else win the 35 Grand this year so I’m interested in Sun J at 16 to1 I don’t know about you but Sun JM on this golf course in this field is a very strong pick um yeah I I so so in transparency I’m not betting him but I I I see what you’re talking about so I’ll let you kind of talk about him because I do think that he’s worth I think he’s worth somebody betting on for sure yeah so he’s third in my model he’s top 10 in five categories including birdies are better gain total Strokes gained par five scoring and Par Four scoring as well as his short game and putting are very good uh his this year has been kind of rough off the tea but I don’t think that’s that penal this year I I really think that he’s just got a really strong all-around game and making birdies on easy courses he has played very poorly on tough golf courses this year but on the easy ones or the moderately difficult ones he’s done excellent this year and that’s that’s kind of what I’m looking at is if I filter by easy scoring relative to par Sun JM vaults to the top and so no I will not play him at the Open Championship when it’s windy but in in Illinois at the John Deere classic where he’s the betting favorite 16 to one that’s pretty strong I’ll take that yeah like I said I’m I’m seeing the same stuff you are and it for me it just came down to I was only gonna play one of the favorites so for so for me it’s SE straa um the defending Champion defending champion in also an excellent form uh I think over his last eight starts he’s got four top 10 and and three of those are top fives so yeah he’s he’s playing really good golf um all year long really I me two over on Thursday last year and still won that’s how hot he was on the last three rounds well and I think he gained like 14 and a half Strokes to the field at this course last year so yeah after shooting two over on Thursday yeah 64 63 62 something like that it’s insane I can’t I can’t argue against either one of them like I said just for me me I took a little bit of a little bit of course history and a little bit of recent form bias and that’s why I landed on staka but I was I was very very close to sunj so I think I think both are great bets so there’s a couple guys at that 20 to 30 number that I’m interested in maybe not for betting but definitely for DFS uh the first one is the guy who came up runner up alongside oxa and others last week Aaron Ry I was off him last week but he looked impressive this a very similar type golf course he’s playing hot I think if he can get his approach game in order which looked pretty good last week I think Aaron Ry is hot enough at 20 to1 to kind of keep an eye on I think if that slips a little bit to 25 I’m all over it yeah Aon Ry rated out number one overall for me and I think I think a fair amount of that’s recency bias not recency bias but recent recent form yeah I think the thing that I’m still wavering on Aaron Ry with is that putting is GNA regress at some point and when it does he’s like a polar he’s still 9 second in this field in putting that’s a it’s a pretty good red flag his short game pretty much not existent 92nd putting 91st and around the green uh he’s going to have to get it done off the te which he has done he’s number two on approach and number one in good drives gained and uh that’s been serving him well the last few weeks and to that point I I saw the same thing when I looked at it but what what was interesting was with the putter he game 4.8 last week at Rocket mortgage and if he had putted his Baseline though which is usually right around flat he probably would have finished just outside the top 10 so I I know Tim’s imagining where that third glove would go he also wears iron cover he uses iron covers because his dad always taught him to take care of his equipment so uh I don’t hate Aaron Ry I just usually don’t want him to win when I don’t bet on him and I have all the other guys in the top five as bets so I was rooting hard against Aaron Ry last week but this week I’m I’m rooting for him yeah in Aaron Ry I mean I think a lot of the people that are watching right now have watched us week on week on week Aaron Ry has been in and out of the rotation pretty much all season so I think this is a course though much like last week if you are gonna bet Aaron Ry this is probably gonna be your last chance to do it this year where where he actually has a shot at winning so true I would probably take the 20 to one number yep I’m playing him in my one and done so that’s that’s uh last last chance and burned to everybody else so uh I really really really like a couple guys in this next tier but I know you have a couple in between fire away Connor so in the 30 range is where I go to next I’m looking I’m looking at JT Poston and I’m looking at Nick Dunlap yeah Poston former champion of this event uh number six in my model excellent choice Connor you’re so smart I kind of figured you might be on one or both of those guys I’m usually on I’m usually the one on Dunlap and I’m not off of Dunlap this week he’s a very strong exposure play in DFS for me but let me know what what you’re seeing with Dunlap because I’m very interested yeah so with Dunlap the thing that I really looked at was if you look at Rocket mortgage and if we’re if we’re going to keep saying that it’s a similar similar setup he uh he gained 8.3 Strokes last week to the field and that was um yeah it’s it’s not bad and uh good so looking at that looking at some of the same guys in the field and then looking at his birdie making prowess so he’s fifth in this field over the last 24 rounds for birdie or better rate which is kind of crazy and you’re gonna need a lot of birdies here one thing that Dunlap has kind of shown us this year is that he can get hot and he can go low so at 35 to one I don’t think that he has any real like marked like difference in skill set from the guys up top like these are all kind of a very similar player that we’re just needing them to stay or get hot and dun can definitely do that yeah and he’s he’s a little bit down the ways for me because of how I filter it but one thing he is strong at is wedge play like if you have a course that has a lot of wedge approach game like this one TPC Deer Run’s going to put a wedge gap wedge or sand wedge in your hand on approach on three quarters of these holes and that tells me that I want a guy who’s can who has good proximity in that shortest two buckets from 75 to 100 and 100 to 125 those two buckets got the heaviest amount of weight in my model and he’s number 12 in that in that category on approach that’s going to lend to making a ton of birdies if you’re close with your wedges you’re gonna score on this golf course and Nick dunlap’s got a ton of talent so I talked about Dunlap I’ll let you talk about posting if you want to he’s just an outstanding putter this guy gets hot birdie making machine kills par fives gains Strokes on this field number five and total Strokes gained on easy golf courses it just seems like he puts himself in a lot of scoring chances because he’s really good off the te’s accurate he’s good on approach he’s not great on approach but this guy doesn’t have to be as close as the field because he makes putts this guy putts the lights out the postman delivers and he won this tournament two years ago 35 to1 for a former champion of this event in a field that’s greatly weakened compared to what it has been JT Poston is a steal at 35 to one you want to hear my my one of my favorite bets for the week let’s do it so Luke Clanton 45 to one amateur amateur yep dude this guy is Ser he’s pretty damn good seriously was he 18 or 19 22 I he’s super he’s a junior at FSU uh he just came off a season down there where he set the University’s single season lowest scoring average at 69.3 his if you go to his page on their website it’s like a page and a half of like accolades and awards and like dude the guy is stupid good he’s coming off the 10th place last week at Rocket mortgage and he is somebody again who just can get really really hot make a lot of birdies um so you can read about him in the article where I wrote him up but yeah Luke Clanton I think uh I think people are going to look at that 45 to one number and go who the hell is this guy and uh all he had to do is watch last week and this kid was hot hot and he’s been hot hot he finished 41st at the US Open like I said he finished 10th at Rocket mortgage last week all these things are true and as we go down the board there’s some even better values on I think even better golfers I mean what’s going on with this board is I’m taking I’m not going to be aggressive with any of my bets but I’m going to spread them out pretty evenly what is going on with putting guys like Michael thorbjornson at 75 to1 we have former Champion Michael Kim 100 to1 we’ll talk about him in a little bit later but Patrick Rogers red hot Patrick Rogers 55 to1 this week what is going on I don’t know there’s a lot of value down here in this like 35 Rio our guy Rio Heats uni number one in my model number one by a long shot in my model is 65 to one yeah it’s kind of weird I mean if you look at this range like 55 to like basically 80 I mean Rio Bo Hustler who’s got Hustler is number four in my model Ben Griffin who just plays incredibly consistent gol Adam shank done well here hes is 120 Chan Kim’s 120 the value is so crazy right now yeah I you got Neil Shipley in here who actually I think yeah that was my money maker last week thank you Neil Shipley you’re my you’re my boy first first first professional event I knew you had it in you top 10 in his first finish but I think in this range if I got to narrow it down to a couple guys um it’s probably Rio and then it’s it honestly it’s probably shiply for me I I just I he’s playing Great Golf and I think he’s gonna break out sooner than later I don’t know if he’ll win this week but I I might get a you know a top 10 top 20 bet going as well that’s what I did last week and it was money in the bank cuz he was what 250 to 150 to one outright but I got his top 20 at four plus 450 and his top 10 was plus 950 cash them both yeah these Young Guns man some of these AMS Young Guns that are coming on tour Talent are serious in field like this the talent is not much different than what you’ll see at the top of this betting slip like sun JM yeah he’s more polished he’s been on t tour for four or five years Aaron Ry these guys they have prior wins on the PJ tour doesn’t mean they’re better than these Young Guns it just means they have more experience on the course and that doesn’t always relate to winning well and I think too with some of the guys at the top of this board I mean these these guys are not immune they’re not the Super Elite of the PGA like no they’re not there’s nothing that says that sunjay can’t go out and miss the cut this week I mean he’s done it a few times this year so y um you know I I think that there’s some Merit and taking a little more Buckshot approach throughout throughout the betting board just because a lot of these guys long odds I mean can do it yeah you got guys out here like Adam long who I’m betting on at 400 to1 should we talk about Thor bjornson for a second before we get down to the longer shots it was so painful to watch him miss the cut by one shot cuz I think he would have just I mean you gave him a chance to push down the stretch on a course that was that getable last week I think he would have been in the hunt after Saturday if he had made the cut but he missed it by one shot what we bet him at last week was it 75 or 80 um no it was lower it was because it was he was his first yeah I think it was 60 but I think it slipped to 75 I think at 100 to one you go back to him I’m not sold that he can do it yet like I think I think he’s got some stuff he needs to work out but we bet him we bet him at shorter odds last week and this field is worse and the course is easier right 100 to one he’s he opened at 75 so he’s going the right direction for us to bet on him I think 10 101’s a good number I mean I I may jump off and get it as soon as we’re done because I I definitely think it’s the same dude we think it is like I mean I think he can win so 100 to one I’d go Lo that in if you got the option to yeah so he is 75 on my book but that didn’t update recently so he’s a number nine around the green number 17 in the short approach bucket and 32nd in this field in birdies are better gained that’s good enough for me good enough for me especially since he hasn’t played his best this year I just refreshed uh DK DK has got him at 100 so yeah we’re on him moving what do you think can anybody any deep deep shots that you got I have Adam long at 400 Austin cook at 500 to one I’m interested in that uh it’s a good number on Austin cook I could other than the potential I couldn’t give you a whole lot of reason to that he to make the bet but if 500 to one he is a really good player that could potentially and and you’ve done a lot of Dumber things with with five uh no no that’s a that’s a good $ five dollar bet the the guy that I’ve got down there is same guy I went to last week in Kelly craft at 250 to one yep still rting out well um didn’t necessarily do what we wanted last week but has has a really really solid golf game just doesn’t have as many reps as a lot of these guys this season so um 2501 on Kelly craft like I said it’s the right game for the course we just needed him put it together this week he’s in my pool he’s in the pool let’s see who else is in the pool I think that’s it Sam Ryder 170 to one that’s dumb there’s so many so many values that if you just write down some of the names and just throw a couple bucks on them I think you’re going to be sitting pretty because uh one of these guys is going to do something this week probably more than one of them are going to do plenty this week to cash in placement bets at the very least uh Connor what do you think we do some DFS in you got your leverage board coming out oh yeah she’s ready and you did defeat me last week in DFS it was a rough week for me cuz I had a couple uh MC’s including Thor bjornson and oh you had zot Taurus’s WD and I knock on wood and say a quick prayer for him I hope that back is not as serious as maybe the last time it went he wasn’t playing well anyway so it might have just been that yep no and we had a and and then in our group one we got taken down by uh by one of our listeners again so we got to we got to get right yeah we will do better and we will destroy you it’s a promise coming hard promise the club is this would be wrestling all right Connor who’s got the ownership at the top Patrick can’t lay is your leverage play play him I’m just kid yeah very low owned not sure why uh it’s spe man and I just don’t know if I can do it at 105 oh man yeah spe is a whopping 79th in this field in my model that’s not good you know why cuz he’s dead effing last and approach he’s sort of dead last in good drives gained he’s towards the bottom in birdies are better and the only thing that he has a green sticker Nick to his name is what we always expect him to have one for and that’s around the green so yeah don’t play Jordan SMI he’s terrible this year no I and then the next leverage play is MAV melian dude like I just don’t know that’s that’s that’s a nice leverage play though he’s a terrible approach player though yeah that’s the problem right is like you need you can’t you really got to have a good game here like because you can’t get strokes back any anywhere and this this course reveals who’s hot like if you come into this course not hot enough you’re not going to contend yeah I’m probably gonna regret this but I’m probably gonna pass on MAV too this week like he’s just not just not there in my so uh yeah Denny Denny’s another one though like the putting world class but yeah approach not so much so I think at the top this week I’m eating chalk and and being said I’m gonna I’m going to stick to what we said in the betting section it’s going to be sep sunjay and Aaron Ry for me up top okay and I’ll find ways to get different down below you’re so different all right as we go down this list here we have Davis Thompson is interesting he should be doing better he had runner up last week almost snuck into a win with with the low round on Sunday uh I kind of like him he kind he’s he’s a pretty damn good approach player in one bucket and a really bad one in another uh total Strokes gained ninth ninth and total Strokes gained I he’s he’s got some Merit here at 9600 in my opinion yeah I have him third in this field from T to Green Strokes game Strokes gain T to green and I have him third in this field for birdie or better rate so that’s great and I liked him last week he was in my top 10 in my player pool so um I think I think in lineups where I’m building a little more balanced I’ll probably actually start quite a few with Davis Thompson I think he profiles really well for this course just like he did last week and um yeah I just it’s hard to poke a lot of holes in his game when it’s talking about a when you’re talking about a lesser field and an easier course like this this sets up really nice for him all right and we’re both we’re both unanimous on Nick Dunlap um Kevin Yu or Lucas Glover or neither I’m taking another look at Kevin Yu I I think I think I’m putting too much faith in Kevin Yu every time I line up to play him I get disappointed yeah he’s a he’s a par five Annihilator great driver of the golf ball good at par fours but uh approach in the short yardage distances and yes dead [ __ ] last at putting that’s that’s not good I think I think when it comes to Kevin Yu and Lucas Glover um I go down to Luke uh Luke Clanton at 86 and go up to Nick Dunlap at 889 I think I’m skipping Kevin you and Lucas Glover here same for me man what is going on all right Eric Cole real short we we’re disagreeing on everything no I know Eric Cole Mark Hub Sheamus power Adam venson any of those guys interest you so the the player and the results interest me with hover but not the price like he’s too expensive to pay it back like he’s he’s finishing like nothing remarkable in the stats either no and he’s finishing like top 30 top 50 every single week which is great when he costs like $6,800 yeah or even 7,900 it’s fine but 84 from our coverboard we love you homeless hubs but yeah especially when you can get the upside of a Sheamus power at 8,300 you can get the upside with Adam senson at 8200 I think I think I could just go down to one of those two guys and it for me it’s probably Sheamus power here um yeah Adam Fenson I think is somehow this is gonna sound funny but somehow more volatile than Sheamus power is so they’re both like plutonium Adam svenson’s dead to me so I was G I was going to play the Irishman we got to get [Laughter] that but uh yeah I think I think that’s kind of where that’s where I’m at what do you thinking like in the low the low eights upper sevens because I think I think this is where I land um kind of frequently based on how I’m building so I’ve been going between Ben Griffin Adam shank and whether I’m Gonna Roll the Dice on uh Thor Thor bjornson again this week which by the way he’s only projected at 1.9% which is kind of nice he does not have a tea time on my sheet is he still still in this field I don’t see him as a wd in the DraftKings app yeah that’s cuz I don’t have a tea time next to Taylor Montgomery either because he withdrew and then Cam Davis also I’m not seeing one for Thor bjornson maybe we’ll have to double check there but if Thor boron’s playing at 7700 I’m playing him I’m also playing Griffin and Rogers above him and Rio satun is going to get a lot a lot a lot of my attention and I know it’s a chalky play but when we’re getting into that Rio range I love Andrew Novak this week it’s projected around 14% but we’ve talked about Novak quite a few times and this is probably one of the better setups we’re going to see for him um R’s out 11th in this field he’s um 18th in the uh proximity ranges we’re looking at he’s 14th for overall Strokes gain T to green and then the other thing I like for a guy at 7500 he’s 15th in this field for birdie or better rate and he’s 18th in this field for opportunity gain so why I like those two stats in conjunction is if you’re 18th and opportunities gained and you’re converting at a rate of 15th in this field you’re making most of those opportunities you’re getting so yeah I think I’m gonna skip uh our your guy Novak and I’m just gonna go heavy on Neil Shipley because I trust it more is that a is that a head tohe you want to take yes let’s do it Novak versus Shipley yep all right absolutely I’m confident one beer I think right now we’re even on the beer count yeah um as we go down this board some surprising names are getting value here uh our guy Alejandro toasty and our other guy Jake knp and our other guy Dylan Dylan Dylan Dylan and Dylan woo ah our our wuang brother here is probably my guy in that range I think this week yeah I got him rting out 13th and I got him rting out in the top 25 for pretty much all the scoring and approach metrics I looked at seems good yeah so I think I think dialon dialon dialon dialon dialon at 7100 is is a pretty good play I’m gonna I I’m gonna go back a little bit into Justin lower he’s in my field for sure uh and then can I interest you and some Chandler Phillips at 7100 uh maybe not I’m kind of off Phillips for now I I think I’m I’d rather take the upside and the hot streak that Rico Ho’s on at the same price uh our Filipino brother Rico uh he’s he’s a stone cold killer right now he he makes birdies and bunches we saw his finishing stretch last week on Sunday that was impressive uh I’m going to fire up Rico because i’ I’d rather root for him even though Chandler Phillips is an awesome dude uh from what I’m filtering for it’s not pretty so I had to I had to look a little bit because I had I was pretty heavy on Chandler Phillips last week so I had to I had to kind of tweak my numbers a little bit and rerun my model for last week against this this course and he popped up quite a bit for me again even with a 67th Place finished last week at Rocket mortgage and the things that I liked about him going into last week he had a 12th and a tenth leading up to last week Charles Schwab and RBC Canadian and his approach Game and his putting had been like out of control good like gained an average of three and a 3.8 Strokes on approach and an average of 4.2 putts um per tournament leading up to Rockets So I think I’m G to go back to him just because the form’s there the talent’s there it’s somebody we’ve played a few times so I want to believe I want to believe there’s three guys four guys in a row right below him that I’m going to believe in a little bit more chest Hadley year guy chest Hadley Chan Kim your guy Hayden Springer and our guy Bud collie love all those guys give me all those guys what extreme values they’re all rating in the top 40 in my model Hadley and Kim in the top 10 in my model love to see it and I’m going to go skip down to uh our new guy run this by you here but I’m a big fan of the Englishman David skins this week he’s he’s one of my fades this week actually oh what’s his own looking like is is it chalky cuz I’ll be I can be persuaded to lower my exposure no I I would let you talk about him I like because I I didn’t do a whole lot of research on them I’m pulling your I’m pulling your roster ship numbers right now on him I know he was number five on approach number six putting number 23 on par fives and number 17 and birdies are better percentage seems good yeah and I think I ended up kind of fading out on him just because I think he was projected to be pretty high yeah well if it’s too Chucky I will have him in the pool but not as much your dog agrees with me yeah my dog is pissed the kids next door just like threw some kind of baseball bat down the street and it just went clanging away not happy David skins is down in this region this is pretty high roster ship he’s projected around 8.1 so yeah I I’ll probably match the field I not saying play the crap out of him because I have a lot of value plays down here that we mentioned but I’ll have some David skins I I got to see him do something yeah that’s fair enough I mean we we skipped right over him but do you I mean it’s a Midwest tournament Zack Johnson’s always done really well here what do you do you have any interest in Zach Johnson at 7K no I’ll never played Zack Johnson can’t stand him if if he somehow does well good for him but I’m not playing him I’m just saying he does have a little bit better course history than the guys around him so it might be worth a look yeah I even if he was number one my model I wouldn’t play him like I don’t I don’t like him I don’t think he’s a good person that I will agree with you on um so getting down here a little ways then um Pearce and Cy um yes of the show playing good golf poised to make something happen so I like that and then Kelly craft at 6 600 he’s a little elevated in the projected because I think a lot of people are seeing the same stats we are I mean it’s still only 7% but Kelly crafted 6600 if if we get him through the cut I think he’s got a real shot to compete so I think that’s a pretty real play down here um interesting Ben Kohl’s watch Ben Kohl’s number 10 in my model at 6600 I’m GNA do it again yeah I don’t I don’t hate I don’t hate going after little Ben KS I’m going after him hard this week that’s a screaming value so far you’re going after him hard and you’re taking your shirt off we’re getting a little little hot we’re gonna have to move the start time of this back this a family show Bo hey I am the king of spice for whatever you want that to mean but outside of those guys I just named the ones you did like you could definitely throw a couple couple long shots down here but realistically like the way that I’m building I mean you know you have to venture down here very far I’m really not getting sub seven very often so yeah uh there’s a couple one I’m going to throw Wesley Bryant out there reality star uh made the cut last week did pretty well he makes birdies when he’s on and I think he’s been enjoying some pretty good form lately uh Joe heith the Lefty uh he’s he’s a name that’s going to be like I said this pool this week is going to be really big I’m going to I’m going to build a lot of small dollar lineups just to see sticks I want to see I want to get some action with this week uh I think the wider pool with some of these guys that are raiding out well Uh something’s bound to stick and I’m thinking I’m going to have a pretty good chance to be optimal this week with some of these guys no I like that and this is one of those kind of fun weeks too where if you do any dabbling and like modeling or you do any kind of research but like it’s a good week to like go find that 25 cent tournament or the 50 Cent tournament Max it out build lineups and and see if you’re getting your player pool right like it’s it’s just a it’s a fun kind of I don’t want to call it a throwaway week but you know get a lot of lineups working what this is the week to experiment for sure yeah don’t play beyond your means but get a lot of action going just so you know give you something to root for and get you a little more engaged on this one because it can be can be a bit of B Austin cook 6,100 that’s the lowest one on my board all right who’s winning all right I think uh you’re going to see Aaron Ry pull it out at 24 under par I am gonna go sep straa at 20 I’m I’ll go 24 as well and I think I think we get our second back-to-back guy in as many weeks so excellent first round [Music] leader I’m going to go with I think I think I’m GNA go with the kid I think I’m GNA go with Luke Clanton first round leader I see your Luke Clanton and I’ll go with another kid Nick Dunlap first round leader right above right above him in my list well it was you were right about the Hat last week where my pick was much better than yours uh 96 than my model last week was Dylan woo and he played really well so good for you Dylan I like him better this week shout out Southern Oregon um DD yeah we love you we love you we love DD Tim is ready for the Hat People come for us but stay for the Hat it’s true it’s so true because the hat is hot only the Hat could have a 96 ranked guy finish top 10 suspense is killing me the Hat has selected number 40 in each of our models number o e 40 Old English 40 go ahead with yours is yours bad it’s not the course I’d want him on I don’t think uh 40th in my model is Doug gim he’s higher in my model he’s 18th in my mixed condition one but he’s 40th in the model I’m running yeah so my number 40 is Alex SMY I think gim’s gonna do better I think gim’s got you this week yeah Alex SMY has not been very good this year no and gim is in my player pool already so that’s like at least gim is much stronger and I have gim and like 18th in my model so it’s a lot stronger maybe I should look at gim again the hat that sometimes the hat is very insightful so gim popped to the top for me because I waited part four and part five scoring and he just crushes that stuff see I didn’t do the uh individual um 345 scoring this week I focused more on just the actual like yeah gim is 21st in my model number three on approach that’s strong that’s stronger than I have him it’s stronger than I would have thought but we’ll see we’ll see what happens the Hat the hats had some bold takes that have worked out it’s had some that uh have been real bad but we won’t talk about those all right well next week is the Scottish open from North barck Scotland the Scottish open from Scotland the sacred ground there it is you know what’s good about Scotland it’s full of Scots or Scotch full of scotch they just call it Whiskey over there that’s true whiskey without an e we will be here we will be here with bells on well from Connor Coughlin and shirts probably have shirts on yeah no promises uh I am Bo mcre join us next week for the Scottish open live as always Tuesday nights 8:30 on in between media like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell so you don’t miss it when we go live we’ll see you [Music] [Music] oh I got to hit the button
