RotoWire Rundown: How hard is it to win a PGA Tour event, plus top DFS/betting plays

In this week’s RotoWire Rundown, Keith Stewart of Read The Line and RotoWire’s Len Hochberg ponder the probing question: How hard is it to win a golf tournament on the PGA Tour? (Spoiler alert: It’s probably hard.) Then they’ll shift their attention to the John Deere Classic and what it takes to play well there before closing as always with their favorite DFS and betting plays.

here we go it’s time for another edition of the Roa rundown my name is Keith Stewart from read the line of course I am joined by my counterpart in crime the award-winning writer from RotoWire Mr Len hawber Len happy Fourth of July week to you and of course happy happy John Deere classic week is there two things more Americana than July 4th and and John Deere and it probably is it is a huge deal there so I actually look forward to this well you know what uh you and I tend to get a little critical about the schedule at times and uh well it’s warranted but this particular week to have the John Deere as a set Alone um professional golf tournament with the holiday and John Deere itself as American institution I mean uh somebody got lucky on the timing on this didn’t they yeah the John Deere classic uh certain certainly did you know in all seriousness I used to think it was you know know it’s been the John Deere is sort of like the butt of jokes in golf whenever anything bad happens what is this the John Deere classic or something like that and I I’ve come around on the John Deere I know how important it is to the people of the Quad Cities there’s you know there’s not Sports there I mean when until college football starts up there’s nothing going on there it’s really one it’s a success story it’s never going to be a signature event it’s never going to be a big time thing but for what it is it’s just a you know it’s been with the PGA tour for forever and uh it should be applauded for what it is and I know the people love it and they will turn out no matter who shows up yeah the crowds out there they definitely get the job done and I mean Jordan spe win it at 19 Bryson winning it at early age I mean they’ve had some very cool winners some upstarts some have not panned out but they still won there like a Michael Kim and then others like a Jordan have done some really special things Bryson of course this year himself but you know that kind of it kind of got me thinking about um you when I start to prepare the rundown and and what we’re going to discuss and I I was watching the end of the rocket mortgage classic and this is one this is a Tale As Old As Time right it’s it’s really hard to win on the PGA tour I look at oxe and the way he closed that tournament and the guy’s won twice in the last 11 months and people are all over Twitter you know destroying these guys for not getting the job done on a Sunday I mean what’s your take on that I mean you’ve watched a lot of golf you know over your years and and you’ve seen a lot of guys succeed and fail on a Sunday why do you think it’s so hard to win on the PGA tour well I don’t think it’s any harder on the PGA tour necessarily than anywhere else at the highest level of worldwide sports it’s just it’s the margin for error is so slim when you’re the best of the best of the best um not to go up on a tangent but I’m Roger Federer recently gave a commencement speech at Dartmouth and oh there was a clip on social media where he was talking about how he won 80% of his career matches but he won only 54% of his career points which shows you the mar yeah stunning which shows you and he was trying to convey that the margin for error is so slim and he was trying to convey to the graduates that you have to play every point every point of your life uh it it would give it your all I mean he won the big points and it just made him a winner so the the the margin for error and loss was so slim for him and he was obviously one of the great champions of all time so I think it just it’s so hard to win because well first of all everyone’s trying to win the other guy’s trying too and um it it it’s just the highest level of something in the entire world it can’t come easy I think in a lot of ways you know and and we’re all victim of this but you know social media gets a little over or hypercritical or overcritical of guys I mean cam young wanted to win so bad the other day he broke his driver I mean that’s how much he was in it and he knew he wasn’t playing well but uh and maybe the breaking the driver helped him who knows that’s arguable but for him to shoot plus one on a Sunday on a golf course where you know he he’s essentially his course average is probably somewhere in the high 60s is um just kind of the wildest thing and it goes to show you how much pressure is involved I go back to Scotty sheffler now here was a guy when he was a kid he won everything then he went to college then he won some things and then he went to the corber tour and he won and then he went to the PGA Tour and it took him a long time to win it took him a really long time over 70 events to win I think that first Waste Management Phoenix Open was like his 72nd event now here’s a guy that we assume is going to win every week he teas it up whether it’s the Olympics or the John Deere classic or whatever it might be whatever they put in front of them whatever field they put in front of them but it wasn’t too long ago I mean in 2023 I had to look this up but he had 14 top 10 and he only won twice so like that was 14 more chances he could have closed right there and he didn’t get the job done and we don’t seem to be overly critical about I mean Aaron Ry the guy’s won six times all over the world like he’s a winner the guy could win cam young has won tournaments before um I just I think it’s I think you said it really well with the Roger Federer point you know you’ve got it you the ultimately the guy that won on Sunday was Cam Davis and why did Cam Davis win because he’d won there before he was probably the most comfortable of anyone at the top you know and he talked about just starting to see a hypnotherapist which got me thinking back to wendam Clark and how these guys have you know maybe it’s unfair to say they’ve underperformed uh but I think and probably a lot of us would think that based on their pedigree and all that and you know maybe cam young needs something like that his OnCourse demeanor was called out on CBS as being uh you know not Optimum to compete if you’re gonna let that stuff get into your head well Roger F Federer never lost never pulled a cam Young on the court he NE we never saw his emotions his negative emotions anyway we saw his positive fish fish pumps and things like that so maybe cam young needs to uh you know very often to determine back to the original question it’s not these guys are all physically gifted the ultimate ultimate winners are the most Steely you know and have the the strongest mental capacity Michael Jordan would want to kill your his nephew playing checkers at a July 4th picnic and that was just that was his mindset and Roger Federer was just ultra competitive these guys are all ultra competitive but you know it is just the the Li of margins and and Camy young probably should be uh you know trying to deal with his emotions out there because it was a winnable event for him just like the previous week you know what um to to tie a bow on this when you watched OE on that last green you know and knowing what how good he has been over the last year and how good he’s been as a junior golfer and everything on a scale of one to 10 10 being the most surprised how surprised were you that he three putut that and didn’t just kind of t- putut it and walk himself into a playoff yeah I you know I’m not going to say 10 but nine eight I was surprised and even then I thought okay that’s a tough part what he leave himself four five feet something like that and he just made a couple of those earlier in the round and um I was surprised but I mean at some point you’re going to miss one Rory missed one for the first time in 500 in uh you know a couple of weeks before at the at the open and you’re just never going to go a thousand a thousand so I was surprised he was playing for what the ninth week in a row eighth week in a row it was the end of eight weeks in a row I you know would it would it have happened if it was the third week in a row where where was his mindset well how tired was he even at age 22 I started thinking of all these things so I I was surprised but I mean you would never say zero chance of missing that no yeah I was pretty I’m up with you eight or nine out of 10 I was very surprised that he didn’t at least get in the playoff there that he didn’t T putt that I didn’t think he would make the birdie but I I I was like oh this kid I mean he’s been really really rock solid lately and uh it just goes to show you how tough it is it’s funny you bring up Rory there a lot of people talking about AE afterwards standing there in front of the firing line and taking those questions and just just being honest and saying this sucks you know like Yeah I wanted to win Etc and it just brought up Rory another time for him not staying there at Pinehurst and uh well we I guess we’ll get to him in a week won’t we we will we will yeah so yeah the the speaking of one time in a thousand the one time in a thousand that Rory doesn’t doesn’t speak he gets he gets hammered so but whatever yeah Rory Rory gets hammered a lot so all right let’s get back to July 4th apple pie um Tom Petty songs and of course the John Deere classic now as I started to you know build out my betting card for this week I’m like man this is like rinse rewind repeat it seems like for the third week in a row I’m featuring a very similar skill set and uh a very similar core group of players um are you still with that this week you know putting wedge play Etc or are you throwing something else into the mix and have some guys shown you something maybe out in Detroit that you know have changed your mind going into this third week in a row of a wedge Fest uh birdie party well if there are guys playing well that’s certainly going to be a consideration for me and something I you know will will lean on but you’re right it’s very I’m going to you’re going to hear the names shortly there’s going to be a lot of similar names from last week that I gave you and gave everybody and they were in my article and uh yeah it’s they they did well and you know I usually like if a guy is playing pretty well and certainly the course doesn’t change much here from last week H I’m gonna ride that I’m not gonna I’m not gonna bet on the streak ending the streak will whatever streak they’re on however well they’re playing that will end at some point but I usually play for it to continue until it doesn’t as opposed to predicting well he’s going to stop playing well this week that seems harder to do yeah there’s no doubt about that I’m with you there um and I would I would say that this golf course is a lot more like TPC River Highlands than it is like last week at Detroit Golf Club but there’s a ton of similarities there I mean it’s a little easier here to make putts than it was there on the Donald Ross design a week ago but um these guys are going to go low the average winning score over the last five years is 22 underpar so I I definitely want putters um I guess on the approach side I’m I’m a little more interested in guys from 200 plus uh you know Alex SMY last year sep straa a couple guys really differentiated themselves from the field by how well or how good they struck the ball from over 200 yards remember we have three par fives these guys can go after in two and then we have three par fours over 475 certainly there’s a third of our approach shots are coming from 100 to 150 yards so that wedge Fest part still applies and um overall much like last week there’s not a huge penalty for being aggressive in the way that you play and you look at those guys at the top you know Aaron Ry cam young um AE batia no you know Davis Thompson a lot of those guys at the top no one would accuse those guys of being the type of guys that hold back when it comes to a birdie Fest minw Lee is a perfect example of that driver everywhere and here we go and uh so for me it’s it’s it is a bit of rinse rewind repeat little more so about TP server Highlands and a little less about Detroit Golf Club but um I think some of the names that that I’m going to mention in all in all of my content throughout the week are going to be similar so I said names everybody wants the names everybody wants Len’s names right off the bat so we’ll go to 10K plus land and there’s only a couple guys there we lost one early but now there’s this polarizing man there at the top of the list Mr Jordan um I’m not quite quite sure why he’s there and we could probably do a whole another question on that but um is he somebody that you’re taking in the 10K land or you going with somebody else I really wanted to I really wanted to pull the trigger on Jordan Speed that this is going to be the week this is the week I mean he’s here because he’s not playing well uh and he wants to play well and get you know some find some form or something so I actually was in my original uh lineup I I in my my picks he was there and I said I I just can’t pick him he’s just not playing well even for even in this weak field uh he’s the top guy well Patrick kley was the top guy at 11 and pulled out and speed is 105 or else speed would have been even higher uh I think all the tens would have moved up a little bit if kley had pulled out sooner but he’s there’s just the the Jordan spe um what do you call it because people like to play him people love him still like him one of the favorites people will play him I don’t know if DraftKings figures that in we’ll bump them up a few hundred dollars because we know people are going to play him just because they like them and for no other the reason with heart instead of head but uh yeah I you know he is um you know just one of the worst Putters even in this field statistically of like he’s really done EV it’s so crazy because he’s done everything else he’s played very well otherwise this year but my two guys in the 10 that I’m looking at are SE straa who defending Champion he does everything well nothing Elite he’s just solid across the board and I think that plays well here I mean it did last year and you know Sun JM you know he uh it’s very interesting last few months for sun he’s missed a cut in all three Majors yet his last four starts other than the majors top 10 so uh you know he’s he really had a poor start to the season he was falling way back in in the rankings he was just you know he’s never been more higher in the top 15 we think of stung JM as sort of borderline Elite or something or at least I didn’t never ceases to amaze me he’s never been in the top 15 in the world but he’s on a very strong stretch right now I’m not going to pick for it to end I’m gonna pick for it to continue especially in a weak field he’s not the greatest putter but uh he’s played had top 10 at River Highlands and and and Rocket mortgage and um you know wasn’t putting Elite there either well you know what’s interesting um I was looking at those four guys I throw kentley in there too and Jason day and with spe and M and I was like man why are these guys here and then you know he looked at it really quick but um we feel like Sanjay hasn’t played that great but he’s only dropped one world ranking Point whereas Jordan has dropped 17 I mean he’s more than doubled his world ranking with the way that he’s been playing he’s on like a JT run from 2023 so yeah I’m with you I don’t know that I could touch Jordan now here’s another guy that’s been a little bit of a roller coaster like sunjay and I I hear a ton of chatter around him in the 9k land and that’s Denny McCarthy um Can this guy win this tournament just with his putter because the ball striking seems a little iffy yeah he was sixth here last year last year fun fact Jenny McCarthy was the top guy in Def DFS in DraftKings last year when he came to this tournament uh they didn’t have some of these other guys obviously but just as an aside the John Deere has been getting better players since it moved to uh two weeks before the Open Championship the Scottish open moving in there between no one would play the uh the John Deere and then want to fly over to uh you know the UK so it’s got a little bit of a boost but in the nines I do like Danny McCarthy anytime you’re going to have to get north of 20 under you know trying you know that you can do worst and go with one of the best Putters in the world and the two guys I like here both were sixth here last year JT Poston won the year before before Seb straa those are the two in the nines I don’t think this is any Earth shattering or breaking any news here all right so um you bring up the world rankings there real quick or the strength of field and I thought something was really interesting and it’s kind of a sign of the times um now that signature season is over we have eight guys from the top 50 in the owgr but we have 33 in the top 100 so quick math half of the guys from 50 to 100 are in this field because they need some kind of points whether it’s President’s Cup points FedEx Cup points world ranking points whatever the whatever the points are you know like I I think that’s going to help the John deers and the 3M of the and the Winds of the world as we go down the list now uh going down the list to 8K land now here’s a guy that you know like a sun JM played every single week and I have heard so much Eric Cole chatter now I know he popped up there what six at Rocket mortgage last week but man he’s had a rough Spring right and is that a guy that you think could do some damage here or who else do you have there in in 8k land well like when I see a guy playing well for a number of weeks in a row and I will stay on him uh conversely if a guy is playing poorly and just has a good week uh I’m not going to think well I’m going to need more evidence before jumping on this guy uh and as you know I’ve said it before very often I’m G to be a week late on some of these guys but uh but I’m willing to take that chance and I think it usually works out more times than it doesn’t yeah he was he’s had a very disappointing year he’s played so many tournaments you wonder if that has contributed to to things um and quite frankly if everybody is on a guy everybody isn’t that smart and I don’t mean to be disparaging but not every you know if if everybody’s picking one guy we don’t see every you know unless it’s Tiger Woods in his prime or something you know that but if everyone’s jumping on Eric Cole then I’m thinking well you know I’m I don’t feel good about that makes me not feel good about Eric Cole so in the eights um cut three guys I think I had last week uh Nick Dunlop who played very well last week I think he was so relieved to get out of a signature event and a major and play with you know a you know lesser field and I thought that you know because he had struggled against the best of the best and um yeah you know and again we see we saw he got to 29 under at the AMX if a guy can get up into the 20s and stuff I’d like to have evidence of that Luke Clanton who I we have no idea how he was so highly priced and low odds last week but somebody knew something somewhere because he had a great tournament um and you know now he’s way up into the 8000s and Mark Hubbert who was 19 for 19 in Cuts made this year had him last week he made the cut he hasn’t had a lot of high finishes uh obviously at $8,400 you’re going to need more than just four rounds you’re going to need some good rounds but um you know he pops really high in in what I was looking at this week as well so uh those three guys were all there last week for me they all pay you know paid off in the way uh that they were supposed to at least based on their price and I like them again yeah I’ve got to give you some credit last week when you brought Luke Clinton to my attention at 80 to1 on the betting board and I’m like this kid’s a junior at FSU you know like what are we doing folks right kid showed up right now this week he’s 50 to one on the betting board and everybody’s talking about him like an Eric Cole or Denny McCarthy um it’s it’s interesting we’ll see if the kid can back it up or um you know will Michael thorbjornson will he be the new uh ludvig will will Clan be the new ludvig he’s only a junior at FSU it’s uh those are definitely the types of players I love to pay attention to on these weeks to see how they’ll step up because boy I mean it this is the show you know you talk about the minor leagues in baseball and guys making it up to the show this is the show so not everybody shows up when the when the when the light is uh shining its brightest that’s for sure um Adam shank I’m gonna skip down to 7K land now right Adam shank has had some great finishes here he’s not had a great season there’s a common theme Here Right dmac inconsistent sunj maybe a little inconsistent um we’ve got uh Eric Cole definitely inconsistent and now we’ve got Adam shank who would have been everybody’s favorite had he showed us anything over the last month or so but um will you go there in 7K land or will you go somewhere else you know that’s always a tough call you know course form course history current form and stuff and last week Troy Merritt I love to roll out Troy Merritt every year at the at Detroit the guy you know we don’t see him for 51 weeks out of the year and he just rolls out of bed uh figuratively and it plays pretty well what was he 17th or something again last week or something whatever but just even making the cut his price at 6,300 would be good so clearly uh horse for the course and you know maybe shank could go in there but I’m not leaning on on shank two more young guys Thor Bon he’s actually played this tournament before he played it last year he got in on a sponsor invite when he was an amateur and he played pretty well he was 17th this is perfect for him he can just Bomb It Off the te there’s really no penalty anywhere for just hitting it as hard and as far as you want and he can do that and Neil Shipley uh another guy another young guy who played he was right up there on Saturday I think he was in the top five on the leader board at some point uh on Saturday he fell back to about 20th Place but still that was his first PGA Tour event as a professional to finish 20th pretty dang good um Chandler Phillips was in the 5000s last week and he was a pick and he made the cut well now he’s up in the low seven so he’s got taken a bump but you know he’s a great approach player and when you’re down there you know I’m looking at those guys who can just get the ball on the green and go from there you know and if they happen to hit some putts then uh then you know then he’ll uh have you know pay off uh in Spades yeah first and foremost for me when we get down here uh in the depths of the DFS pricing uh I look at grounds uh greens and regulation stats 100% you know can the guy hit greens you know because at least if they’re doing that then they’re they’re probably going to be around for the weekend um speaking of the weekend or speaking of the depths of DFS I mean they didn’t even give us a 5k because I don’t even know that you and I would have known who they were but they did give us a 6K and the 6K is pretty um abysmal uh for lack of a better term so um we need your help in 6K land Len hit me up yeah yeah yeah it was hard and I was surprised I don’t know why there were no fives uh because there were fives last week it was you know a n signature event last week so I I have no idea what they’re doing I’m sure they know what they’re doing so I’m not going to question that uh Matt coocher $6,900 uh he has had a terrible year and he’s sort of in no man’s land of being age 45 and sort of not being relevant on the PGA tour anymore and still five years away from the Champions tours this is always a hard thing in the late 40s for a lot of these guys but yeah he’s 140th in points and he you know to get into the top 70 of the playoffs doesn’t seem really doable you still have time to get into the top 125 but he was about 180th a few weeks back he’s actually made six of his last seven Cuts with two top 25s he qualified for the US Open um he’s been playing better the last two months um yeah and he’s still he does not have The Yips of a 45y old he’s 17th on tour in game putting so $6,900 to get to the weekend you know let’s see what Matt pooer can do not a super long track Pearson Cy was on him last week I think he was in the 5000s last week made the cut he is over the past 24 rounds there’s only one guy in this field who’s been putting better than Denny McCarthy and it’s Pearson Cy uh who is yeah top 20 on tour in driving distance top 20 on tour in um of course there’s a lot going on in between those two clubs but uh that’s probably where his problem lies and why he’s in the 6000s but there he is and then two other guys just because I always like to get super low just and say he somebody needs anything Kevin stman all reliable Kevin Streelman get to the weekend finish 73rd uh you know maybe and Harry higs I was surprised to see Harry higs so low at 64 because he’s been maybe the best player or one of the best players on the corn Ferry this year it’s already predetermined or or all but assured that he’s going to be back on the PGA tour uh next year uh he’s played here before I thought that was a great move by the John Deere to give him a sponsor invite because he’s great on the with the crowds and fun and jovial guy out there just a big lug and uh I think he can get to the weekend too it’s 6400 yeah higs is a great grab right there I love that um also the type of guy that’s that it’s been showing on the corn fairy tour that you know he can score in all sorts of situations and and he could play Under Pressure he won back-to-back weeks um one of them didn’t he chip in for Eagle in order to win so um you know really really Stell play I want people to keep their expect you know don’t take your shirt off or anything over hey higs just uh but but I think he’s better than 65 in ties in this field yeah I mean the only other more important question is has Sergio finished his qualifying round for the British Open yet or is he still playing golf yeah you know it’s it’s really trouble to be around fans when you’re not usually around fans so I can I I empathize with uh with Sergio there uh no he was actually last I checked before we came on he was he was in position or at least he might have to go into a playoff but he was he was doing very well in his qualifier only four get in he was T3 and a bunch of guys were T3 and I don’t foret I don’t remember which of the four locations he was at well you know what uh amongst all of those guys on live not to get off on a quick tangent here you got to give that guy credit he’s at least trying to qualify for all these Majors he wants to play in them and um not everybody does over there some people just run their mouth and um Sergio at least has put up or shut up and he’s been playing at Majors he played great at the US Open so good for him did well uh yeah Kudos yeah for sure now who I’m giving kudos to on the betting side my couple early leans here heading into the John Deere classic one of whom you already mentioned uh was sunj M there was a lot of activity yesterday on the betting board um I had tweeted this out through read the line once kley dropped I said you know I am on sun JM this week I I really like the fact that he had four top 10 in his last six events all the things that you pointed out he’s a top five ball striker in this field and when you look at the way he’s been playing lately it’s these shorter birdy Fest type places that he’s really been excelling at versus those Majors which have been brutal so um you know he won in Vegas I mean this is the type of guy that that certainly could hit you know 71 of 72 greens this week and just roll in a bunch of putts and go deep so I I love him at plus 1400 you know he was 2,000 yesterday and I said get to the window as quick as you can and now now he and stra are going back and forth as far as the betting favorite for the week and then the second guy is a guy and I’m with you that here too um I will definitely be guilty of being a week late from time to time especially if a guy only plays good once I believe the trend is your friend and when I look at Davis Thompson right now here was a guy all fall that I kept betting and I said man I saw him play with Windam Clark back at Wells Fargo over a year ago when Clark won and I said man this kid this kid looks good and then I watched him at a couple different events over the summer and I was like this kid’s starting to get it now you got to remember when Davis Thompson was in college he was the number one ranked amateur in the world for a while I mean he we had big expectations for him he’s now 25 years old and as as you and I have established it’s hard to win but he’s been playing better and better he was ninth at the US Open he was second last week at Rocket mortgage he he has the skill set it’s proven and when you look at the way that Davis Thompson plays golf he’s actually a better par 70 guy than he is a par 72 Guy right I love looking at that so we’re in the middle here but a 71 plays more like a 70 than it does a 72 because you’re losing that par five Davis Thompson can score on all types of holes he’s definitely long enough where that’s an advantage on those two driveable par fours and of course the the three par 3es or three par fives um I really like this play this week he’s sitting at plus 2,800 yeah the prices cut and it got cut probably even more he was probably in the low 30s but I was so focused on getting the guys at the top of the board to figure out what I was going to do and I wasn’t 100% sure for Davis but by the time I’ve gotten to this show here uh he’s definitely gonna be one of the guys that I’m looking at he’s ranked third in this field for Tia green over the last 24 rounds and third for birdie your better percentage so I mean if you got to score you got to go low and this kid seems like he’s really starting to to accelerate himself to the point where he’s contending now he’s feeling the juices he felt them last week in Detroit and I would not be surprised if he’s one of these next Superstars like a Bryson or a Jordan who came out at the John Deere classic and really separated himself well that would be amazing that would be a great story and uh you know showing how hard it is to win uh and to to finally break through and to you know and if he did win well I think it becomes easier to win after You’ve Won I guess maybe the first one is the hardest but he’s certainly trending in the right direction that’s a really good call well hey you know what being with you every week is like winning there Len hawber so it’s getting easier for me one one run out after another um the next week we head over to Scotland right so we have a preview for what’s coming for two weeks from now which will be the British Open I know FanDuel dropped the odds for the Olympics this week shocker Scotty Sheffer is your favorite at three to one uh L golf National probably the most American European course you can play so good lucks to those there um I’m feeling strong about the south Koreans trying to get out of uh mandatory military service so I I think I’m gonna be smashing those guys benan and Tom Kim on a positional Golf Course like that but in any event um golf still has a lot of stories to tell so everybody enjoy your fourth of July be safe stay away from the fireworks leave that to The Experts right and uh keep a cold one on tap and enjoy yourself to my friend Len hawber you have any big plans this week for 4th of July I don’t know if everyone heard you there I think you were muted Len all right well the fireworks are going off early in the Hawg house before Len loses it we’re out of here the rundown will be next week for the Scottish Genesis open