5 Observations from Our Fans-Only Mock Drafts | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

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Join us for an in-depth exploration of the latest trends and insights from our fans-only mock drafts for the upcoming 2024 fantasy football season. Dave highlights five key observations, prompting reactions from Dan and Heath as they analyze the implications for your fantasy lineup strategy. They delve into ADP (4:00) disparities like Puka Nacua vs Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave (11:30) vs Jaylen Waddle vs Davante Adams, and (21:45) Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen vs Jalen Hurts, among others. Plus, we tackle draft (29:52) strategy: RB-WR or WR-RB? Dave notes the prevalence of wide receivers (38:40) in rounds 3-5 and the subsequent rush (46:40) on running backs. And let’s not forget the fascination with top-tier tight ends (49:40) – are they worth the hype? Don’t miss this crucial episode to gain the edge in your fantasy football planning!

0:00 Intro

4:00 ADP says… Puka Nacua vs Garrett Wilson

9:30 ADP says… Marvin Harrison Jr WR9

11:30 ADP says… Chris Olave, Drake London, Davante Adams

16:20 ADP says… Michael Pittman vs Jaylen Waddle vs Cooper Kupp

21:45 ADP says… Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen vs Jalen Hurts

25:35 ADP says… James Cook vs Isiah Pacheco vs Josh Jacobs

29:52 Most drafters will begin RB-WR or WR-RB

38:40 Wide Receivers Dominate Rounds 3-5

46:40 Once those WRs are gone after Round 5, the RB run begins

49:40 Drafters Love the Price Tag on Top-Tier Tight Ends

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ABOUT THE SHOW: Want to dominate your league and get Fantasy Football bragging rights? Join host Adam Aizer, analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and the rest of our crew throughout the year. Start or Sit, Waiver Wire, Buy or Sell, Grade the Trade and mailbag from your emails and #AskFFT tweets. This is the only podcast you’ll need to win your league.
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[Music] oh baby it is July and you know what that means in Canada July 1 it’s Canada Day July 4th in the states it’s Independence Day and about three to four weeks from now training camp opens across the National Football League and that’s when all the the casuals are going to start paying attention to fantasy football because they’ll see it on TV or they’ll hear about it on the radio or whatever uh they’ll see it on social media training camps are open there’s going to be highlights everywhere but everybody watching and listening right now you’re on top of it you’re a step ahead and we’re going to reward you for it here on Fantasy Football Today by going over our offseason ADP remember all these mock drafts that I’ve asked you guys to be a part of well not not Heath not Dan they’re here but they didn’t take part in any of these mock drafts you guys the fans well we’ve run a lot of mock drafts and we’ve got an season ADP and we’re going to let you in on the five biggest observations that we have from these mock drafts and we’re basically giving you a cheat code before the rest of your league gets it so with that in mind it’s good to see you again Heath it’s good to see you again Dan did you have good weekends I know what Heath did this weekend so Dan I’ll start with you anything exciting happened this weekend for you man uh very good weekend for me uh played golf both days Saturday Sunday which was amazing for me uh played with two good friends I haven’t seen in like three months on Saturday and then Sunday was actually a little bit of bad luck I was playing the best round of my entire life through 14 and it started to poor rain on the course so I sat there in the rain for 30 minutes trying to wait this thing out and eventually had to give up when the greens were like soaked wet so other than that amazing weekend for me how about you guys uh you know what’s funny is that’s like starting a draft and loving your first three or four picks and your internet craps out and you’re on autodraft the rest of the way and you end up with two dsts and two kickers nothing good so I I can relate to that I don’t golf but I can relate to that Heath you were at the Scott Fishbowl draft in Fort Lauderdale you saw two Scott Fishbowl drafts can you give us one observation from those two drafts something you saw that might be of interest to everybody first it was awesome and I’m so glad that Scott fish set up these live drafts and I’m looking forward doing my live draft in Kansas City next week um but like this it was just such a great reminder that yes Josh ADHD is going to do a great job of building his Scott Fishbowl ADP app and telling us where people have gone in different drafts that means almost nothing like each individual draft with the way that Scott has set up the scoring is going to be so different guys like Trey McBride had a really wide range of where they were drafted um go get your guys don’t worry about trying to wait around so you don’t take somebody too early go get your guys all right very good if you want to know more about Josh adhd’s uh ADP or if you want to see Heath in Kansas City just reach out to Heath on social media on X he’s Heath cumings SSR uh Cummings the S and then Sr Heath Cummings senior you get what I’m saying it’s on the screen if you wanted to watch it on YouTube yeah which you should be by the way and if you are thank you don’t forget to subscribe and if you’re listening to us on a podcast you can always see us live on YouTube when we’re going we’re going and you can be notified of it by liking and subscribing it okay the first observation I turned into a game that this is my attempt to be like AER as the host uh I created a game and the game is called ADP says and so I’m going to give you a scenario I’m gonna give you two or three players Keith Dan you’re each going to tell me who you would take first in the draft and then I will tell you what the ADP says so here we go with the very first one and this is one that we’ve talked about a bunch so far who you got first in ADP who would you take first rather Garrett Wilson or puka nakua Dan schne I would take Garrett Wilson e Dan how do you know about that e i I have these two guys back toback but I would take Garrett Wilson as well I’ve got them both back to back and I have Garrett Wilson ADP says Garrett Wilson over puka akua I don’t think we need to talk about that very much I think that there’s a there’s definitely Target volume or at least expected Target volume that’s going to be in Wilson’s favor Wilson’s the number one in New York puka is going to be like the co- number one in La probably should have more targets per game than Cooper cup and he’s healthier theoretically than Cooper cup so I don’t think there’s much of an argument here does anybody have anything to add G Wilson versus puka no I I think like these guys are both really risky um like when you’re talking about first round wide receivers like a little bit more safety but like we’re just counting on 40 something year old Aaron roders coming off of an Achilles being this enormous upgrade and Garrett Wilson doing something he’s really never done in his NFL career and then we’re counting on puka being the clear number one wide receiver over Koopa Cooper cup when it wasn’t really that way when they were both healthy last year is it enough to make you consider a running back over either or both of those guys Heath I would take like four running backs five running backs over both of those guys name them Christian mcaffrey Bree Hall bejan Robinson Jonathan Taylor jir Gibbs I’m with you on the first three Dan Jonathan Taylor jir Gibbs where do they rank for you compared to Garrett Wilson and pukaa so just the style of drafting I mostly play in half PPR PPR leagues which is obviously impacting this um I also don’t typically like to go running back round one or even round two a lot of the times so I would have those two rece I would have Garrett Wilson for sure over those backs uh puka scares me I I I think I’m with you guys I don’t think if you really look into it Cooper cup was just not healthy last year and I don’t think that should be you know discount I I think that is not being counted enough in his price tag this year assuming yes he’s older but he could easily get back and have a healthy season with a good offseason which I think he can and would still be the to me I think he’d still be the number one target so that scares me but jir Gibbs is I talked about this with Adam last week on the show he scares me so I I think he’s one of the scariest first round picks in fantasy because we rarely ever see a player who is almost a guarantee to not get a Workhorse role drafted in round one I mean David Montgomery is not going away David Montgomery will get 40 maybe 50% of the snaps like possibly 60 if the game script is in his favor that week Red Zone Gibbs will work in he obviously worked in last year is he going to take all the red zone touches doubt Dave Montgomery is going to play a role there so I just don’t know how many times we see a running back drafted in round one that’s in this type of time share situation um we don’t see it with mcaffrey beon Jonathan Taylor all the other guys you mentioned already in that mix so he’s the one who scares me the most of those guys I have basically boiled it down to kind of what you’re looking for because these are late round one picks maybe one of these guys falls into early round two and instead of necessarily focusing on the players I focus on the position and a strategy around it I know that that drop off at wide receiver from like wide receiver eight to wide receiver 9 and then from wide receiver nine all the way down to wide receiver 10 and it you know it’s only one number but it feels like a huge drop off from wide receiver 9ine to wide receiver 10 I want to get one of those wide receivers if they’re there and I feel like there’s going to be a lot of running backs a lot being defined as like five that could be on the board when I’m picking late in round one and I can come back and get one of those running backs it why not be jir Gibbs it might not be jnan Taylor but it could be saquon Barkley could be kyen Williams could be Travis etn and that way I can just start my my draft balance and I’ve got one of those first eight wide receivers Wilson and AA figure to be wide receiver seven and eight off the board and just to Throw Another Log on the pukan nakua is scary fire he averaged 15.7 PPR points per game from week five through week 17 that was with cup but he did perk that number up quite a bit he was at 20.7 P points per game on nine targets per game in weeks 15 through 17 cup was on the field NCA stepped up we know what ncua did in the playoff game against Detroit that was a huge game for him so I I’m encouraged by that late season Surge from Thea with cup on the field and I think he can beat 15.7 PPR points per game I’m okay taking him with a late round pick I have it ranked full PPR Gibbs Watson Wilson rather Gibbs Wilson ncua Taylor nobody Nam Watson is a first round pick for me all right next up on the ADP who is wide receiver nine Dan who’s your wide receiver nine uh this is a game where we’re guessing wide receiver nine uh I’m thinking it’s going to be I’m guessing what the ADP says correct yeah let’s change it to what you think the ADP says not what I think the ADP says right I think the ADP says Marvin Harrison Jr is wide receiver nine eth you agree with that or you got a different name that’s the name that’s the name you guys are right on that one I don’t have a noise to you know ding there it is year one top 10 8 wide receiver nine yeah I mean he he’s kind of been there for us all offseason long so it’s not a surprise see the offseason ADP there does anybody have a problem with that does anybody not have Marvin Harrison as wide receiver nine I don’t I don’t know if I have a problem with it I just think I don’t know if I’m the one making that pick I don’t know if I’m going to be the one taking that gamble I don’t have a problem with it though I see the upside I see the case for it sure and I’m not even so sure there’s even receivers after him who I love or like feel so confident are a guarantee to be a more safe play than Harrison so I guess the more I talk myself into it I am okay with it I mean thing oh I’m sorry he please go if you don’t want to draft running backs in round two and the first eight wide receivers are gone like what you what are you gonna do you gonna you I mean you could draft Mike Evans or Michael Trel a lot in that range honestly I know it’s considered early but not for me yeah definitely early we’ll touch on that in a little bit Harrison I’ve got ranked 17th I’ve got him behind sequan kyen Williams Travis etn for now I have ahead of Pacheko I have him ahead of derck Henry and then obviously every other wide receiver that’s out there that’s not top eight I’ve got him in there and it’s just based on projection the fact that Kyler Murray has over targeted his top guy pretty consistently over the course of his career and so I want to try and get a piece of that Dan and and Heath you know this too the guy was an amazing talent at Ohio State two years leading the Buckey with unbelievable numbers from two very different quarterbacks and that just stands out to me as somebody who’s got this awesome pedigree raised by Hall of Famer etc etc I think he’s worthy of being wide receiver nine but it is partially because there isn’t other there isn’t another obvious wide receiver and I’ll get into that right now with our next game of ADP says who you got here this is ADP says olave versus London versus Devonte Adams and yes I have an answer that I believe in now after last week I kind of fumbled it and didn’t have one Heath you can go first what does ADP say who’s higher ove London or Adams uh it’s got okay so I think this is wrong because he’s not one of my top 20 wide receivers but I think it’s probably Drake Linton okay I think the ADP says Adams based on the drafts we’ve done but again it wouldn’t be my pick of the three but that was what I think the AP says I will reveal the answer then you guys can each tell me who you would take of these three ADP says Drake London over Devonte Adams both of them ahead of Chris olve all right who’s your favorite of the three I rank it olave Adams London i’ probably go a la London Adams but I’m close on the second to Heath what was the what what are your down what are the reason you’re down on I’m sure it’s projection based as well but what is the reason you’re a little bit more down on London uh yeah I’m I don’t I don’t think I’m down on Drake London I’m projecting him by to have by far the best season of his career everybody else is just crazy um like what what what is Drake London’s best finish wide receiver 40 something yeah this year and I understand like we’re doing this it’s the same thing I said about Garrett Wilson I’ve got a little bit more fith than Garrett Wilson because he’s done a little bit more than Drake London has so far in his career he’s also London has Kyle Pitts and John Robinson there with him Wilson just has Bree hole it’s a good point I mean I think that there could be others that could step in and take a little bit away from Garrett Wilson but but those guys aren’t going to be as impactful as as Darnell Mooney I don’t think we’re projecting with all these receivers with Garrett Wilson with Marvin Harrison and with Drake London uh I personally I’m projecting with Chris olve as well I like olve the best of these three yeah because I I love I love the target volume that he had overall last year he averaged over eight targets per game his numbers his efficiency stepped up when there was no Michael Thomas on the field had tip to Rich rebar on that one and and I think that this offense if we’re going to talk about the offense being a a change in offense being a good thing in Atlanta with Zack Robinson there then we got to talk about it being a good thing with Clint kubak who actually does have play calling experience by the way in New Orleans I know Derek Carr yeah it’s gross to think about Derek Carr as the quarterback tied to potentially your number one white receiver but it it worked out to a degree last year o did take a step forward last year I say he takes another step forward again I think he could be potentially this is the upside case a souped up version of Brandon iuk more targets and certainly someone who can make Big Splash plays just like Brandon iuk did but it’s interesting how olve is last on the list among the mock drafters and Drake London is at the top of the list there’s been a lot of positive hype around Drake London we’re going to pick up ADP said right after a break but before the break I want to tell you guys I don’t know if you’ve heard this or not we are a nominee for the best sports podcast category in the People’s Choice podcast Awards we talk about this every year we’re a nominee all the time and it’s a big deal to us we appreciate you guys uh everything that you do for us the fact that you listen the fact that you watch we hope you enjoy our show enough to nominate us to advance to the final round so how do you do that how do you nominate us you have to go to podcast awards.com slapps signup kind of a pain in the butt but podcast awards.com slappa slash signup and then toggle down to the sports category now it it probably took me longer to explain all that than it did for you to go and nominate us but if you go and do that just do us a solid it won’t take you more than a minute it’ll be awesome you’ll help us and we’ve tried to help you thank you for it we’ve actually included a link at the top of the episode description as well so you can do that more ADP says when we come back have you heard of semag Glu Tides kmic Monaro apartment this could be dangerous let’s do it South Park the end of obesity new exclusive event now streaming exclusively on Paramount plus I’m going to skip around on the wide receiver ADP says so here’s the next one here are three more names Michael Pitman Jaylen waddle Cooper cup everybody listening at home go ahead and pick who you think the ADP says is the highest of the three Dan I’m going to put it on you first who does ADP say is going the highest Michael Pitman Jaylen WD or Cooper cup ADP says Michael Pitman I would say okay yeah 80P says Michael Pitman and I agree Michael Pitman and I would take Michael Pitman over the three guys we talked about the last segment wow oh wow so Pitman over ove London Devonte I we’re gonna have to have a Pitman discussion at some point but probably not on this show hold on to your pants boys Cooper cup is at the top of the list from our ADP it goes cup waddle Pitman and these are full PPR mock D I know you guys disagree I don’t even know if I can make the case for Cooper cup over I didn’t say I disagree but it’s interesting to me so maybe like real quick both of you why might people be cold on Michael Pitman I’m personally cold on Michael Pitman vers consensus but I’m going to let Heath go after because I know he’s higher so we’ll have a nice little con so for me I look at the conversation a nice little contrast there yeah I look at the targets I look at the targets per game last year when Anthony Richardson was in the game and Michael Pitman was barely ahead of Josh TOs and I look at what happened when Anthony Richardson got injured Gardner muu took over and Michael Pitman became a Target hog which I think could say some good things about Devonte Adams that we’re not thinking about moving forward for this year but for this year for the Colts I’m a little concerned that Anthony Richardson is going to be I’m sorry that Michael Pitman is going to be Anthony Richardson’s guy because he certainly wasn’t in that short sample it’s a very small sample SI rich and things will change but I think when you look and you dig deeper into the numbers you see the low touchdown totals for Michael Pitman the lack of explosive plays a lot of his production came from Target Volume last year and I’m not sure that Target volume will be there this year with a quarterback change yeah I mean it it was a higher Target share percentage for Michael Pitman when Gard Renu was the quarterback but it was still a 26% Target share for Michael Pitman when Anthony Richardson was the quarterback and there wasn’t really a super run heavy approach like I my big concern for Pitman last year was that when Richardson was the quarterback he was going to run the ball 10 times per game Jonathan Taylor would run it 20 times per game and they just wouldn’t throw that much and that wasn’t really the case when Richardson was on the field their pass rate was very similar in fact I think a little bit lower with menu than it was with Richardson I think there’s a chance that this pass offense is actually more efficient this year than it was last year and the volume doesn’t really change that much Pitman was nearly a 10 Target per game type guy last year um I don’t think listen when we’re talking about the Cooper cup side of things I don’t think it’s hard to make an argument for him at all he’s sure when he’s been right he’s been one of the greatest wide receivers in the history of the NFL healing over 20 epr points per game right and and he was still seeing a lot of targets last year so if you want to bet on a bounceback at his age that makes sense um but I I just think we’re still looking at nine targets per game for Michael Pitman and we might see an increase in efficiency and I don’t ever want to bet on a guy just never like we had this discussion with DJ Moore for several years just never being able to score any touchdowns the touchdowns could it’s not the I agree with you on that I don’t I’m not necessarily looking at it like the touchdown since he hasn’t scored he’s not going to be able to because like we know touchdown regression is the best way for us to see the variant in fantasy sports because he could easily pop for seven or eight but I would push back on one thing Heath the the numbers that you brought up with the rushing uh with mchu versus Richardson and the rush rates of the Colts to be fair that was before Jonathan Taylor was on the field for the Colts so it was a little bit of a different offense in my mind at least when Richardson’s playing without Taylor out there and when mchu is playing with Taylor out there I figure they would be a little more run heavy and that again will will factor in a little bit for me this year with Taylor fully healthy ready to go will that alter their approach in any way that’s just something I’m concerning myself with I just like I know what you’re saying and there’s so much upside for for a player like Anthony Richardson the way you can throw football and it’s not just like the arm talent and the way you watch him throw bombs you watch some of the windows he fit into last year and some of the processing and it’s like this could be the best passing game and in that case Pitman or one of the best passing games in that case Pitman will be a great pick it’s just a little bit too uncertain for me right now he was this is Pitman Pitman was averaging eight targets per game with Richardson that’s the two full games with Richardson 14.1 PPR points per game if we’re gonna say that that Pitman had a great year last year you know whatever the efficiency was with Garner mchu certainly the target share was higher with mchu than it was in the small sample size with Richardson he was still at 15.6 PPR per game and he just there are few receivers in this league that are big physical but they aren’t necessarily explosive and they’re forced into being volume dependent and I think in the case of Pitman he is going to be volume he’s going to get that volume but I think it’s going to be in the eight Target per game range not nine or not 10 and because he’s not as explosive as other wide receivers that are going to get drafted around him I think he’s going to be right in the same range when we talk PPR points about 15 maybe 16pr 15 and a half is where Jaylen waddle was two years ago and 15 and a half is where Jaylen WD was last year in the games that he didn’t leave early because of injury so I think I I don’t think you’re necessarily wrong I just don’t think in this range that 15 and a half is a put down I have Pitman just ahead up I have both of them ahead of Wadd I’m kind of nervous about Jaylen waddle all right I am going to skip the rest of the wide receiver ADP says let’s go to quarterbacks and I only have one quarterback question who does ADP say is qb1 open-ended question you can answer anybody you want but I mean there’s only josen Jos alen Heath says what do you say Dan I I think it’s gonna be a bit surprising I think ADP says Patrick Mahomes ADP says Jaylen Herz is qb1 back to back with Josh Allen which tells me that the general public will not have a consensus on who qb1 is gonna be and it’s very interesting to me because he I think we all have with jimie Patrick Mahomes is our qb1 and not Herz and not Allen I just I find that fascinating I think it’s going to make it interesting to draft uh quarterbacks and and certainly we’ll talk about this later with other ADP observ observations but I I there is no consensus qb1 and no one’s taking quarterbacks with a top 20 pick right maybe maybe they’re wise smartening up a little bit he I think we will see a quarterback with the top 20 pick by the time we get to August but um I Herz is my QB too so I that to me is is more understandable than Josh Allen is just because I don’t worry about Hertz rushing touchdowns regressing as much as I worry about Allen’s rushing touchdowns regressing Herz has been a double digigit touchdown rusher basically whenever he’s been a starter Allen has been a seven to eight per season guy until last year I do think that we might just be like look at what happened to Patrick Mahomes last year they go win the Super Bowl sure they don’t need any wide receivers but he needs wide for Fantasy production does Josh Allen I think he probably does and I think Kell Moore is going to be much better as an offensive coordinator for Jaylen Herz than the mess that they were dealing with last year right yeah I I I I would agree I’m worried about saquon Barkley taking more work away than than we might even initially believe but I still think Jaylen Herz gets minimum nine rushing touchdowns which is close to his floor saquon Barkley at his let’s assume it’s it’s not well not Peak saquon Barkley but it’s he doesn’t lose a step from the last couple of years so it’s still the saquan Barkley he’s not the guy that he was when he was a rookie that guy is not to me the type of back that I worry about stealing all the goal line carries from Jaylen Herz when he’s been so successful that saquin Barkley at his best has never been the you need to get one yard that’s your guy he’s the guy who’s gonna go get you 80 right right but he’s also going to be the guy that could take designed carries away from Jaylen Herz that’s where I think the biggest impact it’s a question of yeah will the Eagles start to with this huge contract with her start to worry about you know should we stop running him right up the middle into contact without Jason Kelce there every single time we’re in the Red Zone I don’t know the answer to that no I think the answer to that is yes when it’s at the goal line no in other situations and I I don’t know if that like even when they’re at the 50 I don’t think they’re going to call as many designed runs for Herz when got saquon Barkley there who can they can use in a number of ways I I just don’t and it’s so hard to judge because he’s been stuck in New York um but saquon Barkley’s real the way he’s elevated teams has not been because of his rushing efficiency the last few years it’s not been because like what you want to do is build an offense around handing the ball off to him it’s he makes big plays and he he’s good in the passing game I’ve got one more round of ADP says and then we’ll get into the rest of the observations and it’s at running back who you got between James Cook Isaiah Pacho Josh Jacobs who does ADP take first what is it where who’s first on the offseason ask fft fan mock draft ADP I think I think it’s Pacho is the answer to this um this is an interesting range guys I mean look this is like two this is like round do three turn this is what you’re getting at the end of round two yes I don’t know how comfortable I feel with any of those guys you just mentioned if I wasn’t such a coward I’d have James Cook close to round one he would easily be my pick from this group and I think he’s he’s going to challenged to be a top three or four running back this year if everything goes right wow but I’m gonna guess Jacobs is the answer from ADP ADP says PCO Dan’s right Isaiah Peko then James Cook then Josh Jacobs and they’re all pretty close to each other and they’re all in that range uh Heath can you make the case for James Cook yeah he was basically a 20 to 21 touch per game guy once they changed offensive coordinators last year that continued into the playoffs it was 16 plus carries four or five targets almost every single week and that’s the off that’s one of the reasons I have Josh Allen not ranked as a top two quarterback because I do think this offense is going to continue to see a whole lot of James Cook and I don’t believe again it’s kind of the Michael Pitman thing I don’t believe he’s just going to score two rushing touchdowns every season he scored two on like 75 carries as a rookie and then two on 220 carries in his second season I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores four more touchdowns and averages more he’s a he’s an actual true Workhorse running back 20 touches per game and other than mcaffrey Hall and bejon there’s nobody I’m certain is going to be better than James Cook this year so I’m nervous that that was just that workload was because they didn’t really like anybody else that they had because you think about the other running backs they had they had latavius and he got numbers he had some work each week and Ty Johnson and I think Leonard forette was there he barely played I wonder if they just felt like they had no choice and not that they’ve got huge options now they drafted Ray Davis and Ty Johnson is still there I just I get a little nervous thinking about these bills running backs I think about the track record of them alongside Josh Allen and how they always seem to disappoint uh I I I can’t disagree about two things you said number one just the the touchdowns he’s obviously gonna get more than two I mean don’t be ridiculous but also he’s really talented he’s a he’s a good running back I just I worry a little bit about how much work he’ll really get I worry about how he finished last year his last five games including the playoffs he was really in dudeville did not put up many good numbers at all I’ve got PCO ranked ahead of him and I’m A Jacobs fan so I’ve got Jacobs ranked ahead of cook too but it it just worries me a little bit especially when you start talking about James Cook as a potential round one pick that means some people might start reaching for James Cook after some other running backs go and that’s fine if you believe in James Cook you got to do what you got to do uh Dan real quick 15 seconds on Isaiah Pacho Pacho we love to see at the end of the season he started to get more involved in the passing game Red Zone I think is where the key is going to be though because I don’t will’ll ever see a season like we saw last year with how low passing to uh the low passing touchdown total from Patrick Mahomes especially if Health if Kelsey is healthier healthier and if those rookie receivers can get going so I think the touchdowns might come down but that’s more projection and we’re now we’re going on touchdown regression and luck so you said 15 seconds so I am excited about the passing game roll I’m a little nervous about the touchdowns Red Zone roll I think the touchdowns Red Zone roll could go up if he stays healthy and is in that role for 17 games uh I feel safer with Pacho in over 17 Game season typical PPR League than I do James Cook it’s close but I think peo is a little bit better all right the I’ve got four more observations from our offseason mock drafts with the fans here’s here’s one of them the first two rounds are basically half running backs and half wide receivers which means most drafters will begin RB wide receiver wide receiver RB so they’re going to go for that balanced approach and we’ve seen that in a lot of the drafts that we’ve done too I I want to ask you guys do you have a preference on how you want to start or do you just are you open to just if there’s a running back you love you’re going to Target a wide receiver in round two if there’s a wide receiver that you love and you take in round one you take a running back in round two how how do you kind of split that or think about that Heath when you’re up in round one do you have that type of idea in your head when you go to draft I I don’t at all I have no no real intentional positional strategy uh when it comes to running backs and wide receivers in the early seriously no intentional positional strategy that is correct serious um I the the the only thing out of all the different combinations running back wide receiver wide receiver running back wide receiver wide receiver running running back running back is the only one that I’m like H I don’t want to do this and so like the only way I’m probably going to do that is if I have mcaffrey or hall or Robinson in round one and then I get to the end of round two and James Cook’s still there otherwise if I take a running back in round one I’m probably taking wide receiver in round two but take a wide receiver in round one anything is possible and if you’re taking James Cook in late round two you’re probably looking at let’s name some receivers that we’ve talked about already Drake London Chris alve Devonte Adams you can go back for whoever’s left from that group of receiver for me it would be Evans or Pitman be Evans or pit if you really love Pitman fine but that probably eases the pain of starting rbrb if you’re in the early round so I don’t necessarily hate that if I’ve got an early round pick because I can go and collect that wide receiver third plus like Harrison’s going to be gone Garrett Wilson’s goingon to be gone puka is going to be gone like it’s the same class of wide receiver anyway so I don’t hate running back running back there where I might hate running back running back is if I’m picking late in round one and I’ve got jir Gibbs in round one and I take saquan in round two because now the wide receivers that are left in late round three probably aren’t going to be as pretty as the ones that are going to be there early round three certainly not as good as early round two Dan are you on board with that is is that kind of a death Nell on your team to start rbrb if you’ve got a late round one pick it’s not a death now it’s something that I don’t like to do for a multitude of reasons the first and most important for me is the anti fragility argument I’ve made this case on beyond the box score plenty of times we actually had to we had to explain it to Adam who never heard of this argument but the argument essentially is you know you’re you’re betting on the guys who are less likely to get injured with your early round pick so running back position that typically has the most injuries so if I’m going running back running back rounds one and two with my two biggest assets I’m building a little more with a little more of a fragile build and I’m putting a lot more risk into my build um so it’s not something I like to do but it’s not something I turn my my mind off to like if I have one of those late picks and it’s like Jonathan Taylor and and I mean the problem is the only problem is I do see a tier breakoff after be not Bean Hall beon and and maccaffrey sure so it’s like if I feel like I’m still kind of losing out even if I if even if I go you know AA and I go Jonathan Taylor and another running back I like there I like quote unquote there so it’s an interesting scenario you know what I find myself doing a lot in round two especially when I’m picking in the early half of round one but even sometimes in the middle half round one is just going Travis Kelce in round two and I’m I’m not really sure what the argument against Travis Kelce is other than that he’s one year older than he was last year when we were drafting him in round one and two years older than he was two years ago when we were drafting him at like six overall and he was worth that and winning us week after week he was injured last year he played 200 fewer snaps than he’s played in any season he had three fewer targets per game than he’s had in any season due to the injury his touchdowns went from like 12 n n 10 over the last four years to just five last year and I guess we can say this is gonna happen again or we could say that he was just playing hurt last year he’s only one year older than he was he looked very effective in the playoffs and now he has Xavier worthy and Maris Brown opening up space in the middle of the field by clear out routes and actually drawing attention of safeties because he’s not Marquez Valdes scandling who nobody gives a crap about running in the open field sure so that’s kind of where I’m at with Kelsey and I’m really I don’t really understand his ADP so for me I’m just happy to take him okay I I I I can do the anti- Kelsey thing yeah give me thee I’m happy to do he’s going to be 35 years old so he’s 34 last year 35 he was 34 last year and he wasn’t worth a second round pick because he got hurt he well you know why he got hurt he’s 35 years old like I just I think that’s easy it’s not it’s fine to take him in round two and say you’re expecting a bounce back it doesn’t make any sense to say you don’t understand the case against a 35-year-old guy when you’re explaining away last year because he got hurt then I just so I don’t me and you are have a different opinion of of what injuries are based on I think they’re mostly luck based I think he fell awkwardly on his knee and got hurt you think it was because he was 34 you’re you’re a younger guy Dan you’ve not gone through this process like 33 or 34 you’re less likely to get injured he did get hurt at 34 but he didn’t at 33 um what what happens is as you get older your body is more likely to break down and it takes longer to recover maybe more importantly the Chiefs are at this stage now where why would you risk playing Travis Kelce too much in September or October or November when it’s clear that you’re going to be in the AFC Championship game that’s what scares me about Kelsey that are they going to arrest him and not and actually is this going to be the new Norm he plays 200 F your snaps and it wasn’t just because he was hurt I don’t think the touchdowns have any chance of staying as low as five though I will say that for sure I I don’t know about that but I will also say that like he was at 10.6 yards per reception last year which was by far a career low his 65 yards per game was his lowest Mark since 2015 like there was and maybe it was just because he was playing hurt yeah but but there was but what happened in the playoffs he kind of looked like himself in the playoffs did he not well that’s because he rested in the regular season okay okay that’s fair do you really think if he if they are going to take snaps off of them do you really think those Snaps are going to be you know inside the 30 third down you know key they’re not have as many snaps inside the in that guy for Patrick mahes scoring from the 40 and the 50 gotwood Brown and Xavier worthy right so I I I bu that argument the fact that Mars Brown and Xavier worthy can take some targets and some numbers off of Travis Kelce I buy that but I don’t buy that the snaps that he will lose will be valuable snaps I still think he’s going to play a lot in the Red Zone goal to go third Downs all those situations here’s the other thing what was the number one reason why people were taking Travis Kelce in round one a year ago two years years ago three years ago four years ago to me it was the positional Advantage thank you it was a huge advantage that you could only really get with Travis Kelce to a degree you could get it with Mark Andrews and with George KD certainly compared to like the streaming tight ends of course but now I feel like there are so many other tight ends that can come in and play and come close to where Kelce could be this year relative to where he was last year that it takes away that advantage and to me Dan I think you’re taking him a little too high the problem is that if you’re picking late in round one that means you’re picking late in round three Kelsey probably won’t make it back to you so if you really want to have him you got to take them in round two and here’s the last point and then we’re going to take a break and then we’re going to move on with more observations here are the wide receivers let’s say that you just you can’t believe it your first round pick is Jim me Gibbs and your second round pick is Jonathan Taylor okay two stud running backs really hard to pass that up in full PPR here are the receivers in r8p that’ll be waiting for you in late round three J Moore Debo Samuel Brandon iuk Cooper cup Jaylen waddle uh DK meaf if those names make you scorm as being one of your being your wide receiver one you probably should take a wide receiver early on even if you have this opportunity to get two said running backs okay one more break we’ll be back with more observations will you need your sports news anywhere we’ve got breaking news to bring you then get your sports anytime you want them big trade news overnight to discuss because we know you need Sports all the time a lot of movement in the rankings this week a legend adds to their legacy we’re bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ CBS Sports HQ anywhere anytime all the time we’ve talked a lot about wide receivers going in round three and we I just ran down six names for you but they really start to dominate that position dominates not just round three but rounds three four and five in our ADP 19 wide receivers go in that range of rounds three through five that’s compared to eight running backs five tight ends seven quarterbacks seven quarterbacks taken by the end of round five in our ADP here’s my first question the fact that there’s 19 wide receivers with an ADP between rounds three and five does this group take the pressure off of taking a wide receiver early or maybe more specifically two wide receivers early and I’m not going to run through 19 names that’s just monotonous but knowing that there’s just this big glut of wide receivers that can probably get you anywhere between 13 and 15 PPR points per game some of them higher than that Dan does that make you feel a little bit better about waiting on wide receiver if you wanted to no because I think the reason we’re seeing this glut of wide receivers and syange is mostly Market determined and it doesn’t mean necessarily that I’m confident in these receivers I would I would suggest that we you know it’s hard for me to feel confident that we were going to get 13 to 15 points per game out of these guys some will and then some will just be not worth anything which we see every year from the from this range of wide receivers and running backs that we draft that’s just kind of how fantasy football is you know it’s very it it falls off fast um but with that said I’m also personally as I draft and you’ve seen this you saw this in the last draft we did well I don’t remember what our last mock was but it was a PPR Mock and I went four wide receivers with my first four picks filling out my Flex before I filled out rb1 rb2 or qb1 or tight end one because I’m a big believer in winning the flex I’m a big believer in your Flex counts just as much as your running back one or your qb1 or your tight end one on a weekly basis a lot of people feel like I don’t need to fill the flex I’ll just fill up my my lineup and then go to the flex I look at it very differently I want to have a big Edge on the flex so if I can get so for me like draft if I even if I draft two receivers in this range Dave I’m happy to go wide receiver round one wide receiver round two and then two receivers with three of the two of these next three picks and then maybe a running back or a tight end or a quarterback do you remember the names that you drafted can you go through your first six if you need a minute I can give you a minute to go find give me a minute I’ll go find the draft I I think like to there’s a big difference between in my projections between Marvin Harrison and most of the names you just said okay like a full point per game difference between Harrison and my wide receiver 18 but there’s very little difference for me between olve and Devonte Adams and Drake London and that entire group like there’s this massive tier so I don’t feel like I have to take a wide receiver in round three because a lot of the round four and round five guys are basically kind of the same guy but you shouldn’t it works the same way at running back like you’re gonna get two really good players in the first two rounds hopefully if I’m at the end of round two I’m not quite as sure about that um even a wide even at wide receiver sure I think it makes sense for Fantasy drafters to grab a rank list could be whoever you choose and cross off names that you don’t like from wide receiver one all the way down to wide receiver 30 and the more names you cross off the more you should prior Iz wide receiver if you’re names your cross off the more you should go after other positions Dan you got your team no I’m struggling here to find it also like Dan’s understand what what you’re saying Dan about getting the flex and trying to lock that up and and trying to have that Advantage there My Philosophy with flex is I’m always trying to get great players I like having the pun intended flexibility to start whatever I can the best available player on my bench after I set all the other spots uh I don’t want to necessarily like wedge in one guy into the flex because if things go wrong you got to take them out you need to have somebody else there eth go ahead I one oh sorry eth you there no that was on me I have one quick point then we we’ll throw it to you go ahead go ahead I don’t care who talks somebody just to wrap that point point up my thinking on it I just want to give my explanation on it my thinking on it is that if you look at the data the data is pretty clear that in PPR leagues you are losing if you’re filling your Flex with anything but a wide receiver over time you are not playing a winning strategy that needs to be a wide receiver so for me I’m very that’s what like we talked about going into drafts like are you care about going wide receiver round one are you locked into positional strategy no but I am locked in the one thing I think about in every PPR draft is I want to make sure my Flex is a receiver so that’s that’s definitely true if you’re comparing wide receiver 30 to running back 30 I think it’s definitely true probably in full PPR if you’re comparing wide receiver 24 to running back 24 but if we get into a situation this is where because like been Gretch was talking about that two or three years ago four four or five years ago like he was not going even a step further he wanted to draft as many wide receivers as he could start plus one more just to make sure that he had all those I do that as well right that works much better when the balance of running backs and wide receivers is even in the first five rounds sure we have a situation like we see in best ball ADP and I don’t know how much this is going to transfer over to redraft ADP when we get to August but right now you look at best ball ADP and you could find rb12 maybe in round six correct I’m all of a sudden comparing wide receiver 36 to rb12 then flexing a running back sounds pretty damn good yes yeah you make a great Point Heath especially when you’re talking about just like the market and how it dictates it and and you you gain like you don’t want to O okay you don’t want to always be zigging when everyone else is zigging you do want to throw zag in because like it said Heath it can you can lead to that where you have the upside of an rb12 there where vice versa if you’re taking a receiver in that range you don’t really have wide receiver 12 upside with that type of receiver is is the point you’re trying to make correct right it’s just it it really is determined by how the draft goes and that’s why I talk like the the no intentional positional strategy joke was is real because you don’t know we’re gonna have some drafts on CBS Dave this year that go ex there’s a quarterback in round one Travis Kel’s going early in round two we got a bunch of running backs and Dan’s approach is going to crush leagues like that yes because you can get four of your top 20 wide receivers or something and it it works out fantastic but there’s also going to be a lot of leagues that look like best ball ADP right now because that’s the thing that’s been out there already for six months or four months and you’re going to have very very good running backs available in round six or seven I don’t hate Dan strategy uh as long as you’re not reaching for any of those wide receivers like if if if you get to the point where you’re taking yeah I love olve if you’re taking Chris olve at 16 overall just because you have to have a wide receiver and you’ve got the blinders on I don’t like that I’m always gonna be a proponent of drafting like the best player available trying not to fill positional need it’s okay if you go zero RB doesn’t mean you have to take nothing but receivers you can take a tight end early on if there’s one that you really like if there’s a quarterback value that’s there in round three or round four you can go ahead and do that I think that that’s important stuff I want to continue with this whole idea of what happens after round five and this is where our next observation comes in once those wide receivers are gone after round five and remember 19 wide outs with an ADP between rounds three and five that’s when the running back run begins and I almost think it’s worth it to look at this is right around RB 13 14 or so in the consensus rankings all the way down maybe not 14 that might be a little too high maybe 16 I can give you some names but our ADP says five running backs went in round six four in round seven six in round eight I think drafters are going to take a beline to those running backs right after round five that’s when they’re going to look for their rb2 the zero RB drafters they’re going to get two running backs back to back one of them will be their rb1 by default but I think that’s the range when we’re going to start seeing running backs go yeah yeah I think does anybody is there a reaction to that or is that like was GNA let I didn’t want to jump I felt like I jumped in front of Heath earlier and I felt bad about that I mean you’re talking about like basically the first two rounds are half running back and then there’s a three round wide receiver run and then maybe the the next three rounds are close to half running back um and that that makes sense and if drafts go like that then I think there’s going to be some great running back values available at that time so let me give you some names Dan let me give you some names and then you can react what if you had to start these guys as your rb1 David Montgomery Raheem moard Aaron Jones this is the order of radp by the way I’m reading it straight down the line all right Montgomery is just outside of a round five pick in R ad Montgomery Raheem moer Aaron Jones James Connor James Connor behind Aaron Jones really yeah it is Naji Harris Jonathan Brooks uh DeAndre Swifts after that I’m not I’m not goingon to read all the names but those are the highlights those those are the studs if those were the highlights then I’m really not excit like I would like to have two running backs before that please aren’t aren’t those running backs that you settle for as your rb2 Dan I it dep it just depends like everybody has such a different approach to Fantasy for me I’m not so focused on like what’s my rb1 and what’s my rb2 I’m focused on like how do I get as many fantasy points on a per game basis as I can get and to me in that sense it’s why I always end up with these very light running back rosters light at rb1 light it’s not always light at rb1 I will take a hero rb1 approach if I can get one of the big three I will do that this year but other than that I’m like okay getting any of these because it’s going to change so much in season as far as who is actually worth rb2 even if you look at some of the guys you mentioned there you know eth mention he’s not very excited about them but some of those first few guys obviously taking out some of the guys we don’t like as much but naming them again like David Montgomery was a very solid rb2 for a large part of last season Jonathan Brooks if he gets that Rashad Wright role will be a League winner and will be an rb2 rb1 uh there if he gets that role of course there’s more ifs with this range but I look at it like I kind of feel like if this is the range where we have where what you’re saying is true and receivers are going rounds three through five I can almost go receiver receiver rounds one and two take a running back or two in that three to five range and then know that I can always come back and start to get you know because if I’m going wide receiver one and too early one thing I do do it’s not like I’m not building out any running backs on my roster I will get my bench will then start to be more running back heavy my early bench picks will be running backs I’m hoping can break out so I’ll now have three four it’s kind of like the zero RB approach where you start to take of these mid round mid to late round running backs and you hope one will hit so I think if if it’s going like you’re saying and receivers are just going so heavy rounds three to five I’m okay taking some gambles here at running back and these are the running backs that you’re taking if your first four picks are wide receivers right correct and I’m okay with a lot of those guys you mentioned personally with the exception maybe Aaron Jones that that’s zero RB that’s that’s what it’s all about okay let’s move on to the last observation that we’ve got Rafters love the price tag on top tier tight ends I don’t think anybody’s reaching for any of the tight ends five tight ends are going in the first 55 picks seven in the first 70 picks none with a top 20 pick so this kind of goes back to what I talked about with why Travis Kelce isn’t in the same type of position in our minds as fantasy drafters as he has been in the past so Heath is the goal to take the first tight end whose value slips even a little bit like a little bitty bit or are we just are we just having a different type of idea toward how we draft tight ends this year I mine’s pretty much whichever and I don’t agree with the the big five I think it’s a big four but my my thought is pretty much whichever one of Kelsey McBride leaport or Andrews is available in round four is the guy that I want to draft and if none of them fall oh we lost Heath sound we did probably not taking a tight end until round seven repeat what you said the last 10 seconds we lost your sound if none of those tight ends fall to round four then I’m probably not taking a tight end until round seven here’s the order of the ADP it’s leaport he’s going his ADP is 26.6 Kel’s at 27.6 I’m scrolling I believe Mark Andrew is next he is at 39.6 love it uh and then Trey McBride 46.7 the best value of the draft any position have Dalton cancade and you’re you have a top four not a top five I guess it’s like a tier thing cancade is not my fifth tight end either okay who is your fifth tight end KD who’s going right after concade so I’ll just give you both these cancade is at 53.3 and George KD is at 63.9 Kyle pittz is ahead of George KD in our ADP Kyle pittz is at 61.2 so that those are the seven that are being drafted in the top 70 Dan is is is there one or two of those values that really stand out to you is great yeah for me this this seems to happen every year for me at tight end I’m either taking Travis Kelce every year or usually I have one or two guys I love in this range typically though I have zero guys I love in this range it’s actually kind of weird I should say that I have guys I like in this range because typically I’ll either go Kelsey uh Andrews or bust but there are guys that I’m targeting this year in this range and those three are going to be Dalton concade Kyle pittz and Brock Bowers those are the tight ends I want if I don’t get any of those three or Kelsey I’m punting on the position I don’t think we’ve talked enough about what Bowers upside is that’s something that we’re going to have to put on our list but I know that the mini camp reports were great uh Heath I was with you on those Scott Fishbowl drafts he was going round six tight end premium leagues uh it just it kind of surprised me that he was sliding a little no yeah I I I mean I’m a pretty big Gardener muu fan yeah um the literal biggest Garder muu vonte Adams is going to get 10 targets per game like that’s you can Antonio Pierce wants to run the football they are going to run the ball and run the ball and run the ball I don’t understand the theory of Brock Bowers as a top five tight end without an injury to Devonte Adams well the is all right go ahead Dan I’m sorry no no I’m sorry David I didn’t mean to cut you off I want you to go and then I’ll and then I’ll do a little bit on Brock Bowers I don’t think Brock Bowers should be drafted with the idea that he’ll finish as a top five tight end and think that either the Raiders are going to have to throw a lot more than we’re thinking or something happens to Devonte Adams for Bowers to get there but I love his versatility the fact that Georgia used him as a short yardage goal line guy exactly in college like and he was used as a wildcat quarterback occasionally he did that in high school that’s something that could be added in I’m not drafting him for those Reasons I’m drafting him because he’s an explosive tight end who’s not a blocking tight end and he could very easily finish second on the team in targets and it could be triple digits it could be 100 targets it could be 105 targets when the season’s over with and his ADP is even obviously it’s lower than everybody that we’ve talked about I almost think you can get them in round late round eight round nine and I think that’s good value but I’m I’m looking for value at tight end overall and when there’s one that that shows up with at least a little bit of value I’m jumping on him and I I’m not worried about trying to get massive value and to steal one away from the rest of the league if if kelse or lepto there in round three I’m probably G to take him if kcc’s there in round five round six I’m GNA take him if McBride’s there round four round five I’m going to take him but if if people are reaching for tight ends in front of me I don’t mind waiting I think that there’s enough at the position where I’m not gonna have a huge Advantage but I don’t think I’m gonna have a huge disadvantage either Dan I think there’s enough tight ends to go around yeah I think you’re right those are the observations that’s what’s happening in our offseason ADP we will continue to run mock drafts with with you guys all offseason and the offse listen the offseason we still got three or four weeks left in this offseason and then the preseason comes around I I consider training camp part of the preseason so I hope you guys are hyped for the fantasy action that’s to come and you guys are now a step ahead of what the general public will feel because they’re not thinking about ADP right now they’re they’re gonna Chomp on their hot dogs and their burgers their barbecues over the Fourth of July they’re not thinking about fantasy their loss our win we’ll be back back on Tuesday with more fantasy football today for Heath and Dan I’m Dave thanks for coming out [Music]