Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) and Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) are joined by Eric Polzin (@925_Sports) to break down his Top 10 RANKINGS, BETS and DFS options for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic!
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it is the roller baller PGA show and we’ve got a good guest on the show tonight we are drenched in blue looking fancy across the board I’m actually kind of really impressed with our color codes and we’ve got Eric Pine on the show with us from 925 Sports so how are you doing tonight my friend you know pretty pretty good uh a little bit later than I typically do my content and I had I don’t want to get into too many details I accidentally did like a 24-hour fast today so if I’m a little bit uh less energized than I typically am on my videos that’s going to be why so quick apologies there if that occurs don’t you worry a little bit I know all about the fasting I got my baby raised barbecue sweet sauce over here so whatever that’s got to do with anything Spencer how are you I’m doing well Byron we were talking a little bit off air before we came on last week felt like every single thing that could go wrong during the traveler seemed to happen to you and I I talked about fading zalot taus in different iterations of the market and we got this pre-tournament structure of it where every single matchup was Juiced out to be on what was betable and the one play that I could find on him was Adam Scott to beat him on day one it’s the one day of the three that he loses have a round four matchup with e Road over hadwin which hadwin ends up making a 14f footer on the final hole so uh that ends up becoming a push there ended up losing two units not NE necessarily the best tournament but I joked about it on Twitter yesterday even with that two unit loss for whatever reason that has just not been my event since I’ve gotten into the space in 2018 two units is actually the best week I’ve had there so happy to be gone with this tournament excited to be in Detroit this go around then I think it should be a good show yes dude it’s GNA be a great show I had Xander cost me a top 10 shot shot a 70 in round four around TPC River Highlands world number two US Open Champion Xander shley you loser on a Sunday but it’s okay you got the US Open hopefully that can energize you a touch here Eric and kind of get you back in the s for us um how was your week last week uh kind of the same I think as your guys is I don’t know that event just seems to be a little bit more uh I wouldn’t say hit or miss just like with the being a nocut event it was just more random than I think most times just in general and just kind of a weird weird week in general nothing great nothing terrible yeah I did one you know I typically try and do like one I’m starting to do like single entries a little bit more when Scotty’s playing and I had Benny on in my lineup so that worked out wonderful for me as well as ew deed with a fever but um hey you know what Us in the Indiana Fever we’re going to rock and roll there and see how it goes where do you you’re in the midwest are you Eric yeah I’m I’m in Wisconsin but uh shout out to Benny Anne for telling us Friday morning after he had withdrawn that he had a fever that was I mean he’s on Twitter a lot I was like come on you could you couldn’t have just tossed us the bone there and satday on Thursday you weren’t feeling or Wednesday you weren’t feeling that good and looks like Sunday the fever passed because he was roasting Scotty sheffo about the security the police officers being on the green so tough scenes over there but we’ll just kind of get uh The Travelers behind us in time travel towards this week’s rocket mortgage classic which is probably going to be even more random than last week despite the the quality of field we had and the golf course we were playing on so Spence hit us with What’s um actually you know what let’s go with Eric and then you can touch up on the side of things I totally totally kind of screwed that one up there but Eric what are you kind of looking for this week for the for the rocket mortgage well yeah you kind of mention it this one could be a little bit more I guess Hit or Miss than last week but it’s kind of a weird week from what I’ve noticed with the rocket mortgage it’s like the good plays that you’re going to be on probably are going to really hit or be terrible like I think Hadi is a good example of that last year he went from like I think a 69 to a 74 vice versa just missed the cut that’s kind of the nature of this event where it can be a a bit more hit or miss chances are you’re probably going to hit on some plays that maybe you wouldn’t typically bet the top 10 that probably will hit and maybe a couple of the favorites that you’re going to be on I don’t know may I’m not saying it’s gonna be Cameron young but a lot of people like him this week maybe he’s someone that randomly misses the cut like that’s kind of what I’m expecting this we can really kind of prepared for so betting wise G know I’m going to miss some bets that typically probably shouldn’t Miss and then vice versa where it’s just like I’m kind of fine chasing some more bets at the same time yeah I think kind of leaning into that variability this week is going to be a way to kind of get around that to a degree is embracing it and knowing that that’s going to come our way spend so um anything else that that you can add to that that might help the people kind of navigate their way through the rocket mortgage chaos classic no I I would just double down on that sentiment I think anytime you get one of these birdie Fest sort of a tournaments where you get that volatile nature of putting that’s going to get Amplified in the model building perspective there there’s just more chaos that comes into the mix with that and I you know I’d love to come on here and give a different answer than that um it’s really difficult though like I I think the one difference maybe is is if you look at distance off the te and short iron play those are the two areas where we can try to create a model and build it in that fashion but I kind of tend to think that the edge comes more from books making mistakes from Individual players because this is a very straight forward tournament any single podcast you listen to or anybody who releases content is going to talk about how putting is important here you you’ve had an average winning score of 23 under over the five years that it’s been played we know that there’s some bomb and gouge mentality that comes into the course and the proximity buckets from zero to 150 that see that heighten nature there when everybody’s building in the same sense a lot of models look the same a lot of ownership concentrates in the same spots and when we look from a betting standpoint here numbers start getting skewed in different directions because books know where the action’s going to come in One Direction or another and I agree with what Eric said there there’s going to be players near the very top of this board that will miss the cut like we can get into this when we get into our top 10 just because somebody’s inside of the top 10 of my model or any of our models doesn’t mean that we necessarily think there’s a value in it Cameron young would be one of the Prime examples in my model where I I have them inside the top 10 there’s decent upside trajectory in my model but there’s also this volatile nature that comes into play with it where you know look at what he had provided entering this tournament and now all of a sudden after all these results we’re gonna just forgive everything I understand that his distance and short iron play is really well tailored for this course and there’s a reason why he’s produced the one time he’s played it but there’s not necessarily this rollover course history nature if you look at the predictive sense of it so I think you need to embrace the chaos you’re going to have to make builds that are a little bit unique and different and that’s no different than most weeks but you know if all the ownership’s going to concentrate in the same areas you’re G to have to try to find ways to get unique and different so hopefully we can talk about a little bit of that on the show yes I think that’s it this is the most like it’s always Game Theory from DFS perspective but I feel like this week in particular provides you with the best opportunity to really Embrace game Theory and and just how to construct your rosters and and Dodge the landmines that are likely going to blow up in our face like Eric said in the beginning right so Eric let’s start off with your number 10th guy and kind of go from there and see see who we have the same we have three different first rank golfers this week which is going to be it just goes to show like with no Scotty sheffler we’ve got problems so you have Matt Wallace as your 10th ranked option yeah which I was actually pretty surprised by um it’s it’s like so I’m really valuing par five scoring and birdie a better percentage which he ranks out pretty well in the field and he also has been playing pretty well as well recently five straight made Cuts so I think that’s part of the biggest reason uh but it like looking at it it’s very kind of tight in general like he’s tied I think with the next player that we’ll mention as well uh for the 10th spot uh played pretty well in his last round on I think it was the DP World Tour as well so he’s just been playing pretty solid golf now for about months or so earlier on the season really wasn’t playing well but we’ve seen some more upside with him but that kind of just goes to the nature of this event it’s just like someone like Matt Wallace is popping up that much don’t exactly love that but at the same time I wouldn’t be shocked to see him you know really outproduce his price tag on DraftKings or betting wise really give a nice desirable result like a top 10 BET or top 20 like that wouldn’t be shocking as well yes dude I I love that I love also that like right off the bat you’ve mentioned we we’ve been because me and Spence have spoken about this and we don’t want to Rattle off explanations for guys that are inside our top 10 that we don’t even really care about or like but that’s what the model’s presenting to us we’re going to digest that information and and act on it accordingly right so that’s what we’re trying to do here this is the whole point of this this segment and I appreciate you leading us off with that Spencer has Matt Wallace as number six for him yeah I guess my only concern with Matt Wallace if I was going to throw out a negative and and we can get to the positives in the second because if he’s grading six for me there’s obviously a lot to talk about I don’t love the trip from the Netherlands getting straight to this event I know that he’s talked about that he loves this event he loves this course he is a little bit tired and we’ve seen players in the past when they make that trip overseas and they end up back in an American tournament that there’s been some jet lag that’s come into play but as everybody who listens to this show frequently or digests any of my content in any fashion knows my model’s pretty straight on for the most part with the top of the board like I run things from a really long-term duration compared to most and when you get these aberrational results like a Matt Wallis who’s 7,400 on DraftKings and open in the 66 to1 range to win this tournament there’s a lot to like about him so uh for him the land six it made him one of my favorite DFS plays I ended up not punching an outright ticket on him which maybe I’ll come to regret I did have some negative trajectory in my model for upside some of that travel is what concerned me at the end of the day but the profile as Eric talked about like it’s a very jarring result when you see Matt Wallace jump into a top 10 of your model when you build it because that’s not something that either one of us expected and when I have these deviations from the norm those are typically the plays where I’m gonna try to attack them a little bit more aggressively for DFS although I will say to that Byron I think he’s gonna be very popular I don’t think Eric and I are the only two that have that um sort of a thought process here with Wallace if he’s popping up in 7% of the three best models around the country I mean obviously he’s going to be popular right so obviously saying that with a little bit of tongue and cheek Spence you’ve got your guy number 10 knocking out OE B here I’ll let you talk a little bit more about OE than me like this is one of those examples where I think he’s going to be very popular I know the current form looks great if we’re talking from an upside answer here I don’t love some of the Donald Ross results that I’ve gotten within my model I think you can correct me if I’m wrong Byron I think you have an outright ticket on him I do but I guess this is the fun part of it because he’s not inside my top 10 it was uh I woke up this morning not knowing how to bet outrights and clicked his name so because he’s playing some really good golf right now the drive is amazing and I thought about what he did at the Valero the guy was sizzling with the putter right so him and Denny just kind of broke away from the field this is exactly what you kind of need here this week this is a maniac play you know the model has him sitting somewhere just outside the top top 10 or so so it’s not like crazy bad for him but you know he’s really trans he’s transitioning his game he’s 11th you know so he’s just outside there so I really fancy him this week yeah yeah any any take backbacks there um Eric you know I’m not I’m not that high in him so I don’t want to get everyone paws on him but I get I get the play I mean he does pop up staff hit wise um kind of what my data does is a little bit different I have the specialist data rank which is pulling in all the unique characteristics for that we tourament like Donald Ross courses for example that’s where he’s ranking out the poorest he’s like 32nd in the field if you combine all the unique things you know for the course and so I think that’s why the data on my end doesn’t like him as much but you mentioned the form great form really good stat fit as well so that’s a play I wouldn’t talk anyone out of at all yeah it’s eight tournaments in a row also I mean like him and Tom Kim both have that and I mean we’ll see where Tom Kim is in my model as we get further in the show so you can’t say it affects one guy and and doesn’t the other but when like I agree with Eric on that when you have to make decisions and you can’t play everybody and your model or I should say my model’s already a little bit lower on him compared to public consensus if you start throwing some of those narratives into the mix that pushes me in the other direction that’s just where I get a little bit lower so like Eric said it’s tough to talk anybody out of him he’s inside the top 10 of my model I just worry that between the ownership and the price tag that we’re getting here and all the golf that he’s put in with I mean he’s outside of the top 140 for me in Strokes gain total on Donald Ross courses that’s not where you want to be to win a golf event yeah I do want to just kick back that Donald Ross dust at your guys face a little bit quickly and say that you know he changed the broomstick recently and when how much of the Donald Ross coures has he played since moving to that right so um with Tony fow last week I think that was a a perfect example of you went to the Five Finger Death Punch grip and you know whatever you call that thing that he’s doing on the on the handle of that putt at the moment it really changed how his putt is going right and that’s it’s just been since that we’ve seen a complete transformation these putting stats so this is the hard part about golf is we’ve got these psychos that are changing grips they’re changing putts they Chang like it’s just what are we doing we trying to hit this thing these guys just do the most random stuff all the time you know what’s funny Byron is I mean I guess we can bring him up for DraftKings wherever he lands on that range of it too like I I’m the only one of the three of us that actually has him in my top 10 and the most glowing review and it’s not even close has come from you so it’s it’s just a funny nature of the industry here it is is he he’s our number five guy so he’s right up there over there I’m gonna just knock out Alex naren I’m going to probably bet this guy at top 20 I’ve used him in a top 40 parlay I think that’s the way to go with him if he goes low own this week I’ll dive into him you know a lot of these top four guys and that we can chat about the 10K range once we get out of here but I think it’s going to be ownership dependent I’m willing to Interchange those four guys as much as I want I really like that 9k range so we can chat about that when we get there Ricky Fowler the guy whose Soul got sucked out his body when he made that winning Patcher and has just never been the same I think it’s been like one or two top 20s since it’s been disgusting after he was rattling them off like 75% of the time so that was a bit sad from his side there but we got Keith Mitchell there ranked number nine for you leading in the field in Strokes gain total for 2024 Eric yeah so I mean that’s a big factor is um a lot of my data is looking at the results from this season pretty much only and then a little bit of you know last five and whatnot but yeah he’s really popping stat fit wise I actually have him as the best stat fit for this week so that’s G to tell you mostly the biggest story that you need to know with him but he’s been someone that has pop been popping a lot for me thus far this season and one of my biggest worries is that he really hasn’t had that many Elite finishes like he’s had a top 10 finish recently and then like a top 15 top like he’s been top 20 or so are his good starts really this season a couple of top 10 so he hasn’t really been in like contention to win at all DFS wise that doesn’t matter he’s at a great price take I feel comfortable playing him batting wise that’s my concern but DFS wise 8.5 on DraftKings I’m happy to just like kind of load up on him this is one of those plays where if it burns me I’m kind of okay with it burning me because to me this is kind of the correct play on paper the one concern is that no course history I believe and that’s that’s my biggest concern like maybe chasing those golfers that are around him that have that course experience but that’s about it I do think it’s such a straightforward course you can potentially if there is you know a golf course to get away without course history it’s this and yeah it’s not often that the number one Strokes gain total guy in the field hasn’t had a top five this year and his last top five was the 3M which is approaching soon you know like we’re in the midwest swing that was his last top five last year so him yes our swing you know the Maes roing through there so um yeah Spence hit us with your guy uh at eight for Keith number two in my model and expected weighted scoring for this course so that doubles down on a lot of what Eric’s talked about it’s really going to be the putter for him the ball striking always looks magnificent and I feel like I have fallen victim to Keith Mitchell I mean I I don’t want to start comparing on the negative end of it but I feel like I’ve fallen victim probably more than most people in this space where there have been a ton of events where has finished Friday inside of the top five for ball striking and he ends up missing the cut because his short game has lost 10 plus Strokes I think the positive that I would Point towards is one of the things that I always look for in my model are players that get an increase in expected putting for the course that they’re playing so Keith Mitchell is 85th in my model in Strokes gain putting over a two-year duration when I run my model he’s 53rd specifically for this course so if he does have that positive trajectory upwards in my sheet and you see it in a lot of the iterations of how it’s built the price tag is too cheap for DFS and and it feels like it’s the same answer that all of us are going to give on this show I worry on the flip side of that though that the outright number probably has no value in the price that we’re paying so like them at 8500 have more trepidation on the outright ticket yeah it seems like the the best value for Keith Mitchell is in DFS and we’re going to have a clean up on aisle nine clean up on aisle eight and clean up on aisle freaking five over here with with the ownership that’s going to be rolling through from Keith so you know it’s going to be it’s gonna be nasty we had the throw up in the chat last week Eric it was chat’s gonna have to take their meds and make sure that they can keep it clean in you but um let’s roll on and see who Spence’s number ninth rank golfer is it’s a guy that I’m not even clicking on because I don’t know where it’s going and it’s Camaro n Young um according to the shicha and Spence who’s this dude and what’s he doing I mean that’s already the problem we can’t get his name correct I think that kind of signifies everything that I think about him this week like the upside numbers look great the price tag is too expensive I keep finding myself in this spot where we can have an ownership discussion and let’s see where this is on Wednesday before completely discrediting him because I talked about the distance in the short iron proximity but it’s really difficult for me to want to get to Cameron young over over a Tom Kim it’s really difficult even for me to want to get to a Cameron young over A Min W Le there are a lot of other players that are beneath him in price tag that I would rather get to and then Tom Kim is just a very easy pencil in that um for $300 more I’m gonna probably move up there every single time so it kind of goes to your point Byron of you we have a lot of discussions on this show about our top 10 players and not every single name that’s going to land is going to necessarily be of value for us I would say the batia Cameron Young route would probably be the two for me that I am most likely going to be lower on than consensus and we can check back again on Wednesday if there’s no ownership we can have a different discussion when trying to talk about leverage but um One Finish has completely changed the name of the game to give this price tag back yep and a 59 last week is not gonna help that because everyone’s like oh he’ll do it again you know and the moment Cameron young gets anywh near contention it is a disaster and I hate that he’s my number one golfer this week but he’s good he’s a good great course fit you know the form is awesome but whenever he gets in the mix oh boy he is the guy that will throw up all over you y I think that’s speed from last week this is Cameron young like a chalk Cameron young is a guy that’s been drinking heavily and the throw up is it’s curdling boys it is curdling so I’ll dive into my number nine guy and rattle him off real quick Steven jger amazing course history at this venue it’s one of his fa faite courses when it comes to Strokes gained I’m a big fan of him I don’t know if I could bet him outright I don’t know if he can get to the 25 under par kind of situation but he’s obviously played well yeah in the past so um we’ll see how it goes I want to monitor the ownership but he’s he fits right in that 94 range which I think is going to be really really appealing you know to kind of go to so I like him a lot um will zelot Tores is our $9,200 golfer at the eighth most expensive option on the Slate and then we’ve got Eric with Davis Thompson sitting number eight kind of going back to a little bit of a shock to me I was a little bit surprised by I kind of had to look at it a little bit more I’m like okay coming in off of a top 10 finish that’s good has played this course twice played it well twice relatively strong stat fit across the board like for the most part it it’s kind of the the form of him missing a cut recently that’s the biggest concern for me uh but the fact that he is coming in with recent starts that were top 10 finishes one was at the Myrtle Beach Classic I know a lot of people aren’t probably loving that too much but played well at the US Open like like that there you look at his miscut the Canadian open it was still um just like one bad round that caused that miscut 69 74 so I’m kind of okay with like looking at something like that when prior to that he was playing strong off kind of writing off one bad round in there and so I am shocked that he is coming in that high for mine this week at the same time looking at a little bit more it does make sense I really do like the price take on DraftKings and batting wise I kind of wish the number was a little bit better like to me Keith Mitchell compared to like Davis Thompson I’d much rather go with Keith Mitchell um just like in my head that’s probably a bias but definitely sticker shock here looking at him more though it does make sense I’m kind of would you guys see him as a cash play because I kind of view him as a gpp only play this week I’m just kind of I’m curious what your guys thoughts are on him I don’t see outside of the US Open unless that is the moment in his career where he found a bit of upside I just don’t see him ever finding himself in that was his first top 10 in like the last 12 months so I would play him in cash cuz his top 40 rate is nuts right so I would completely flip it around if I was playing that and I would I’d bet him top 40 as well because I think that’s the market for him in my opinion but you never know you know pares at this golf course he loves them Spencer what’s your take on Davis I’d like to see where his ownership lands but um when I look at my model he’s 14th overall when I took a gpp approach to he was 25th he jumped to 11th for safety which is where the cash is it’ll come down to ownership for me because he has a lot of playability if he ends up being the Overlook commodity in this range for gpp contest but I kind of agree with you Byron I think he’s a good cash game play that’s inside of the top 10 of my model for weighted scoring that weighted par five Outlook is really what propelled him in my sheet and anytime we look at ball striking courses with him my model always really likes him in these spots so um I would make an argument that just in general whether this is a cash or a gpp discussion the market is generally too low on him in a lot of these spots maybe because of what you’ve said Byron that you don’t have a lot of those high-end finishes but the skill set like this is the prototypical sort of a course that I would expect him to find more high-end success so I guess I would give an answer that I think he’s playable for both but if you made me pick one I guess I lean towards cash with it so so my model is basically set up to it what I always say it’s like both measuring safety and upside so it makes sense why he’s popping up and it makes sense why you guys are saying he’s a cash play but like to me I was just like there’s no way that he’s popping up that much but it makes sense I kind that’s my way of saying thanks for talking me out of the bias that I had no dude but that’s the thing is like Keith um Davis Thompson these are the kind of guys that they seem like they perfect course fits all the time and they the stats speak to us and tell us look this guy’s ready to pop just like you just see them top 10 over like Friday night and you’re like oh baby I got this guy right and then we we all know the story right it’s just like t17 after Saturday t23 T30 by Sunday afternoon you know it’s just unfortunately the way it goes I hate using this argument I just want to bring it up very quickly on the show if you look at some of the head-to-head matchups with Davis Thompson out there he has already boosted out into like the minus 130 range against Chris Kirk he is a favorite at some of the shops I’ve looked at against Taylor pendrith and that’s kind of the Intriguing one cuz I think all of us like Taylor pendrith this week so that that really starts hammering in what the sharper early money is thinking of Thompson I don’t think that that’s Square action coming in because I cannot imagine that he’s one of those names that the average Joe is looking to punch a ticket on in any capacity here so I think he’s a sharp mover right now and you know I my model’s not necessarily as high as Eric is but he’s also a top 15 play that shows as a value inside of the DFS range yes and to get to that Taylor pendrith situations Spence he’s 22% more made Cuts than than Davis I mean sorry pendrith is a high Boomer bus kind of guy whereas Davis is just this ho hum I’m gonna make Cuts Like Crazy Eric F royan I think is the only guy that we have on my guy and he’s the eighth rank golf for me I just I love what’s evr’s been up to man like I think using his his upside rankings this is where my rankings are coming from for the the DFS side of things I tend to lean a bit more safety for bedding and EVR is just man he’s he’s fun to see off the tea and we we know what what he can do on these like soft getable golf courses like we saw at the cognizant where had that rain delay not showing up I mean we could have seen a really impressive round from him so big fan of EVR this week I haven’t bet him yet I may still I have a bit of space left on my card and I think in that 50 60 to run range um we looking looking rather tidy so that’s my guy we’ve got some Maverick mcnees I don’t have him you two do let’s see where that’s going Eric yeah so Maverick mcney again kind of like the fact that he does have the course history here two out of three mid Cuts one of them being the top 10 finish his better results were two or three and four years ago don’t exactly love that aspect of it but really good in par five scoring this year 14th in the field good and birdier better percentage which you do need to score on this track top 10 there so like that what I really like about him though is if you kind of look at his form it went from like descending so was getting worse leading up to that miscut and then you look at his past four Starts Now it went from 41st 23rd 17th and 7th so he’s been getting better each start so that’s all encouraging to me uh and just kind of across the board looks like a solid play across the board this is the beauty of this week though I’ve listed off mcney Davis Thompson Keith Mitchell and Matt Wallace typically players that wouldn’t be popping too much and we’re getting the at Che price Ts for the most part kind of a DFS wise kind of a fair balanced week it could potentially be we’ll talk about some of the other studs but I don’t know mcne is a play that I’m kind of comfortable playing as well so I’m kind of happy to click him as I guess Davis Thompson I wasn’t that excited to play similar plays though yeah he can make tons of booties you know if he makes the cut he can outscore his his finishing position because I think the way he can putt but he also is one of these guys that The Closer he gets to the top leaderboard he can to like hit the braks but the majority of the field is that this week so it’s like whose breaks hits the least you know Spence I I like Maverick mcne he was fifth in my model um I did include so I always take the dispersion of scoring just from what we’ve seen over the last five years and I will build a weighted Strokes gain total in my model so um he ended up being 17th in that area which is a little bit below his price tag but where he really starts climbing is in a lot of the weighted scoring categories he got inside of the top five of my model there a lot of that reason is going to come down to the Putter and his ability to score on some of these par five courses I think he’s a safe play at 8900 Eric talked about what we’ve seen from him recently where you’ve gotten this really built-in floor from him in a lot of these events and uh I would say that there’s a lot of golfers in this if we want to call it the I mean I I guess him and Aon Ry would probably be the two that are like the most suited in my model for this answer where just really safe options in my the way that I built my sheet I didn’t end up betting them because of some of the long-term upside concerns that I had with them at the price but it doesn’t mean that they’re not a good value on DFS I I do think they’re both going to be popular though so just something to keep in mind as you’re making builds this week yeah and just touch on Nikolai hoot as you’re doing scooting on by there I mean that’s GNA probably be the one that I am the most against consensus on of probably any player in the tournament and that’s going to be my spot where I’m going to be the most aggressive like I Envision a completely different year for him win this open I I always run my model before we start the season and just put them on a standard expectation track try to figure out who are the players in my model that I’m higher or lower on than where the market is going to be early on in the year and then a lot of those things will deviate based off of the courses that we’re playing and hoard and minwu Lee were the two options for me that I was very aggressive on wanting to try to figure out a way to get exposure to and had hoard early in the year when he came in second at the farmers couldn’t get across the Finish Line when he lost to pavon there but if you take that out of the mix and then the Desert Classic in Dubai he has yet to post a top 15 on his resume and 12 starts since that you’ve had four miscuts and additional four finishes landing outside of 50th place or Worse there that’s going to obviously discourage some people but the way that he built and and tracked in my model specifically for this course I’m always trying to course specific fits and players that I’m higher on than the market on the venue that we’re going to be played in hoard just continued to pop in that capacity first in my model when I took distance proximity and putting and put it into one grade and then if you look at the one downside that we want to talk about which has surprisingly been the driver I I talked about this being a bomb and gouge facility so I love his ability to hit the ball far here if the one problem has been his inaccuracy off the te I think he’s able to miss and he his distance is going to be able to take him away from you know there’s thick rough here there’s a pretty easy driving nature to begin with but you know there are going to be players that Miss so I think his distance is going to put him further along and then he’s going to out hit a lot of the bunkers that sort of a blueprint for this venue is the exact reason why I liked Windam Clark last week where a lot of people early on in the week were off him and then it seemed like late people got on to him I’m curious to see if the same situation occurs here with hoard but this was the first outright ticket that I punched at 66 to1 this was my favorite outright number that I had on the board I usually bet to win seven units I bet this one the win 10 I’m going to take the advantage I have here and we’ll see if we can figure out different iterations of the market to also get more um exposure down on this because when I do have an edge in these spots this is typically where I like to attack it’s good dude I I love it and the thing is he hasn’t shown up what he can and we all expected some really good stuff some of the majes have been like his best few strings of events and then he kind of fumbled the bag but I bet a guy at 110 to1 is basically the same thing as you Spencer finished third at the at the farmers bom and gouge played nicely at Mexico nice long course I think Jake knap at this price I couldn’t couldn’t leave my hands off this dude he’s the only outright I’ve hit all year I’m going back to the well so um if you guys go watch the Mexico open show and I’ll tell you exactly why I like him so I’m laughing right now because well he was talking about hogard I was like man that that’s my thoughts on Jake KN yes dude that’s funny it’s exactly the same thing so we don’t even have to chat too much benser pretty much mentioned Jake nap in a nutshell so I’m off nap already we we can move on to Taylor pendrith being the sixth rank DFS golfer and Eric has Taylor pendrith as the sixth rank golfer for himself yeah chalky right there um yeah I mean pretty much just Taylor pendri he’s been playing well he’s a little bit longer off the T probably you know maybe has a little more winning upside if that’s if that’s coming into play a little bit more this week uh for straight May Cup’s been playing well played this track really well 14th second place finish here he is also some of that scores really well top 20 in both uh par five scoring and also birdie or birdie or better percentage so like that there from him form wise you know everyone kind of grades it differently I have him top five this week so looking you know just pretty solid in the field as well just across the board it makes sense why he’s priced this way it’s kind of just if you end up on him there at 9.6 like DFS wise I’m happy I call these shoulder short plays I’m happy to go out of my way to click him to close up my build I don’t know if he’s someone I’m trying to go out on my way to play because I’m probably trying to do more fair and balance but he is someone that I’m definitely happy to click on yeah I love his UPS I love him as a DFS option you know you don’t want a guy I mean he’s gonna make the cut he’s going to play well for you if he’s not he’s just going to miss the cut like we spoke he’s making half his Cuts so I also bet him outright so Spencer you’ve got him third I also bet him out right he was number one in my model at easyc scoring courses also number one in my model in recent Strokes gain total you can look at any of the recent finishes that he’s put together seven top 33 finishes over his past eight he’s posted a victory four additional top 25s I think he probably becomes pretty popular but I’m fine eating the chalk in this position with it um there were not necessarily a ton of $9,000 golfers that I overly loved like it’s probably for me pendrith joerger Batio is how I would rank the three but like there was a bit of a difference in where I think ownership is going to land on those names which I do think pendrith will be popular but like I would rather play joerger than batia just because I think that the ownership is going to be I don’t want to say substantially less but I would be surprised if joerger came in higher than baa is all I’m going to say there so there’s not a whole bunch of $9,000 golfers beneath that that I overly love like zalatoris I’ve been I mean he beats me every single week in matchups and he finishes in 65th Place in every event so go figure on that and then uh I think Ricky Fowler it’s just an ownership discussion if if everybody like if he’s going to be 3% owned he’s 21st in my model those are some of those spots where I’m fine trying to create leverage against the field there but if we’re not getting a leverage discount I don’t necessarily have any interest on Fowler amen um we can what’s your take on Fowler Eric I think he’s he’s just well with Fowler it’s in a weird way it’s kind of the same it’s not datawise but it’ be kind of the same logic as to why You’ want to play Cameron young where all right it seemed like Ricky might have found something last week I know he kind of tailed off in in the weekend stretch but obviously he’s played well well he won here last year there’s gon to be good vibes here Rick’s not someone I’m getting to uh but you kind of mentioned Spencer mentioned a few times like ownership this we and I think this week compared to like the last few like it’s kind of been boring ownership wise the last like month or so it’s just it’s been correct it’s the best way to put it for the most part maybe some small things here there this week there could actually be some very big leverage spots here where you can make some strong Game Theory plays uh I don’t know if I would say Rickie is gonna be one of them but I I just kind of want to Echo that I think this could be a huge ownership leverage week because what was it oxay that you just used as an example and Jagger like that could be something that probably very similar plays like stuff like that is what I’m looking for but to answer your question with Ricky I I think I would talk someone out of it that’s kind of how I always like to do my takes like would I talk to him about it probably with him this week I agree and I I hope he gets popular because I you know I don’t think he’s got it anymore um I hope he gets popular too so I’m not tempted to go down that route for the sake of our our self sanity yeah the there that’s kind of the best way that Eric answered it though like there’s going to be players that are 5 to 7% or less that are inside of the top 25 of your model that may be incorrect when you’re comparing their price tag uh to where your model has them but when you look at the leverage number that’s created in ownership you may have a substantial Edge that can occur in those spots so I don’t know if that ansers is going to be Ricky here and I don’t want this to become Spencer likes Ricky Fowler and that’s what everybody takes away but I I do want people to take it away from there’s going to be players and just always keep that in mind that if it’s a player that’s grading inside of the top 25 for you give or take there’s a way to create leverage if the whole field doesn’t want to get to them right if that area presents itself you need to pounce but M Lee grades out sixth for me he’s a guy that I bet you know like I I’ve used the Jordan Speed Roller Coaster situation you want to be on that roller coaster on yourself on your own so you just throw up on yourself I think we’re going to that Coast is going to be packed with with chefs with and if they’re going to be cooking the wrong food I mean the food he’s been cooking lately has been White Castle burgers and freaking Uncrustables man like it hasn’t been it hasn’t really been anything since the cognizant you know I think he shows up at these Mages maybe he shows up here um you know if he’s going to be popular I’m easy to leave him alone so um yeah cool no one else in the mood to speak about Min wo because I think he’s we just it’s obvious right it’s like it’s rinson Rapa it’s obvious guys that are going to be very popular we trying to dodge them he’s in the tops there we got to go so let’s chat about Alex Nar for you there there go he’s your fourth fifth guy yeah so I don’t like the fact that Alex norn is popping up maybe as much as he is originally and I don’t know if you guys Factor this in but I recently started to put a little bit more emphasis into Vegas data a little bit more so he was the second best at one point and then the V good odds came in to make the cut an out rate wise knocked him down to five which I was I was happy to have happened because I don’t like targeting someone that’s missed two out of his last three Cuts yes one was at the US Open kind of didn’t expect him to play well at the US Open um Miss cut the RBC Canadian open don’t like that but prior to that he had been playing some great golf multiple top 10 finishes so it’s not shocking that he’s popping up as much as he is uh and he has played well at the course two top 10 finishes uh G to be a good stat fit as well I mentioned that specialist day that I do I have him number one in that as well so really strong course fit if you want to call it that as well so it’s not shocking that popping up that much but this is one where I’ve mentioned I’m probably doing more fair and Balan I just maybe outright wise I don’t mind him 25 to oneish but DFS wise it’s it’s a tough click for me even though he’s popping up top five like I think I’d rather get to just the guys that are cheaper than him honestly we’ll talk about a couple the other players that are popping up a little bit more for me but are you guys like what are you guys at with nor and I know he was 10th for you uh Byron but it’s it’s I don’t know it’s a tough click yeah I mentioned I’ll be if he gets popular I’ll just be betting him top 20 or top 40 you know whatever makes sense and um he he just doesn’t have the upside you know we’ve got he’s one of the two people though that has the top five at the CJ cup which I guess is a kind of a comp course here but um I think he’s going to be popular he’s always always popular right so ever since Spencer mentioned him on the Action Network like two years ago um adex sar’s just been in everyone’s mind that wasn’t good publicity I think he missed every single cut on all the action networks I I went on that best bet show with uh uh Chad milman and Simon and the big takeaway that everybody got from that was Rory was going to win Augusta which if I ever do that on a golf show again just pull me off the air Byron like ju just have me muted with that and then Alex norin was one of my favorite value plays and I mentioned on the show he was an extremely volatile play I feel like I was two years too early on what we’ve gotten from him at this point right now I like him better ins of the safety markets that you’re talking about Byron like he’s 13th in my model um I don’t have a massive take on him in the outright Market I think he’s a fine play I think he’s a little bit overpriced but I don’t have a reason to tell people that they should or shouldn’t play him he’s a negative value in my model but there’s a lot in my model that also likes him yeah and I think maybe because of his price tag we might see him a little less owned than than what we expect right which might make him a NE value for you Tom Kim Eric number three for you yeah I mean so we mentioned it so where we at with uh playing eight events in a row him and Ox do you guys care about that because like with these young guys I I really don’t like good for them keep playing like they can I don’t know do you guys have a stance on that I’m curious I have a stance on AE because he’s missed more Cuts than Tom Kim so he’s played a lot less golf I would say you know you can take those weekends off that’s that’s a lot of rest time that Tom really hasn’t had you know and he played quite nicely at the US Open but Spence what’s what’s your take on the on the rest no I I think if somebody’s playing well and my model likes them there’s there’s no reason why I’m going to take them out of my player pool for that reason and he’s he’s number one in my model this week so click the wrong button there’s there’s a lot that my math liked about him for obvious reasons yeah so I mean it kind of reminds me of sunj when he was playing a lot in his rookie year like what was it like 12 straight starts or something like that where we just didn’t really care we were just firing him off so I’ll let you touch on him since he’s number one I mean obviously a great form going to be a good stat fit um but yeah number one yeah inside of the top 10 for me so one of the things I like to and I included in my My article that I do over at Roto Bower always is I have seven main categories that I ran this week and it encompasses a lot more than just what shows on the surface there’s a lot that’s built into it there’s course specific fits there’s a whole nature that goes behind it with just like not the rudimentary Outlook of you know your expected Strokes gain total like it takes a bunch of different facets to it but if you look at those seven categories Tom Kim graded inside of the top 10 of six of those categories and where I talked about hoard being the one name for me where I was going to be higher than consensus he was also six out of the seven those were the two names that had the most top 10 grades for me Kim was number one in two different of those categories you can get that inside of my model at rodo baller but um yeah it goes back to the question like I kind of even answered it a little bit with oxj if there’s a reason why I’m looking to get off of somebody and it gives me another reason sure on it but I I don’t think that’s a good reason to get off of some we’re talking about young kids here that are playing really good golf at this moment yes they are young and they are playing some scintilating golf I love his floor I think he’s got as much upside as the rest of the guys but I think his safety is obviously a little bit better so um Spencer you’ve got Aaron Ry over here as your fourth rank guy and you know what I’m going to do what Eric did to you and I’m going to let Eric go ahead and tell you why you want to play Aaron R as your number one guy yeah so once again my data really looks at like both safety and upside so he’s been summoned that um over his last six starts has made the cut one Mis cut recently if you go back further multiple top 10 finishes over his past nine starts you know just solid form top 20 in his last start top 20 before that as well so really good there top uh 10 finish here last year as well stait wise uh I’m looking at ball striking as probably everyone top 10 there in the field really good strok approach the one concern is that he doesn’t score that much and that is a little bit of a concern you know 56 and birdie BR percentage but still scores enough on par fives like I’m not too concerned about um like him struggling this week I feel pretty confident about him DFS wise and even outright wise I don’t know if he’s still 40 to1 but I’d be like he was my first click he stood out obviously he’s number one in my model but he was one player that when I was doing like the preliminary research I’m like man Aaron Ry is going to be really popping up this week I wonder where he’s going to rank out and he was number one so I was kind of happy that that happened because he was someone that just like in my head was like this is gonna be the perfect place for him and that’s what the data is saying as well for me on my end um there’s just not that much to hate datawise like everything is pretty strong across the board uh really his miscut like seven starts ago the one concern other than that just really popping up for Aaron Ryan yeah seven STS is long time ago man so I I love it but it’s just for me the lack of points scoring ability but I mean this dude’s flaw has just been ridiculous lately so really impressive stuff from Aaron Ry for me my fourth ranked dude oh sorry Spence I just want to touch on this really quickly because I think Ry is is a very intriguing name to have a little bit further of a disc discussion about here so Byron we talk a lot on this show about lack of upside La lack of Birdie Mak potential players that are not necessarily reaching their ceiling as frequently as you would like to whether it’s punch an outright ticket play them in DFS whatever the answer ends up being there my push back has always been that these courses are different that they’re playing every single week and where you don’t have upside in one area doesn’t mean that you don’t have upside in another area so take par five scoring here he’s 33rd in my model in par five birdie or better percentage over a two-year duration when I ran it specifically for these four holes that he’s going to be playing he jumped up to number 13 overall his par four scoring did the same thing his par three scoring did the same thing all of those factors turn them into this top 10 expected scor so if there’s somebody that I do not have an outright ticket on and he opened at 40 to1 as Eric talked about that number got hit very quickly I think he’s down in the 33 to1 range now I don’t have that ticket and if somebody was to win this tournament that I don’t have and we do this every single week last week it was Tom Kim and Tony F out this year it’s Aaron or this week it’s Aaron Ry I will have regrets if Aaron Ry ends up winning there is a lot to like in a model and I think sometimes that public narrative that comes into play of this guy cannot win a golf tournament runs a little bit too rampant in the minds of of DFS players or betters and I I kind of feel like that’s what we got early on when books opened them up at 40 to1 and there were enough Savvy betters out there that jumped on it right away and push that number down and uh that’s going to be my regret spot so I I just want that to be able to be clipped after the show and Aon Ry wins I love him for DFS I’m gonna play a lot of him there didn’t get the outright ticket I do think he’s a really intriguing name though um the sum of his Parts is greater than the whole right that’s what Aaron Ry does and he’s got more gloves than anyone else on Twitter so hey um let’s see what he can get up to my number four guy no comment let’s move on I don’t know what the hell he’s doing over there it might be an issue um I don’t think he’s ever going to get anywhere near where I expect him to I should have jumped this to you when I had him for number nine but you’ve got number two and I figured we’d let you kind of chat about Steph Jagger and give him some air time yeah Eric yeah so it’s a lot of the same things uh as to why Aaron ry’s popping up that joerger is also gonna be popping up um the issue with joerger is like he had some weird form kind of leading up to his victory where he was someone that was kind of trending towards kind of what happened which was either he was going to win or Miss A that’s just what we see when someone’s playing that good a golf turns out he missed a cut and then eventually won as well so it’s kind of weird there then after that Victory he missed a cut and then since then pretty good finishes the one Mis cut recently was at the Memorial tournament which completely different course you know that’s a harder scoring track where he just you know he didn’t play well safe to say there this is gon to be easier scoring track so we don’t have to kind of worry about that but that that’s my biggest concern is that you know missing the cut recently I I don’t like that aspect of it other than that pretty good I mean top 10 finishes at this tournament raids out really well uh par five scoring ball striking and then also bir your better percentage could be a little bit better stroking approach this season that’s not even really a concern but would like to see that a little bit better but third best specialist in the field again that’s kind of the course fit that I look at um obviously strong course history strong stat fit so just across the board kind of measuring those metrics just coming in slightly better and I will say like we’re kind of living in absolutes when I’m like doing the model ranks like this very tight board for like the top five I kind of mentioned norn was two before the outright data came in so very tight board for the top five as compared to kind of the last few weeks where it’s Scotty Xander like more I don’t know about but like those players just keep popping up so definitely a little bit different week but I’m kind of okay with that again the recent Mis cut slight worry but it wasn’t terrible so kind of happy to roll with him at 9.4 so that was kind of the player I was teasing earlier when we I was saying I don’t like paying for Alex norin when I can just get Jagger at a little bit cheaper yes dude exactly and I think I’ve been doing a lot of bball NFL stuff and you you let the board fall to you right and I think the same comes to to fruition when it comes to ownership here we with so many guys so close like you mentioned whoever is the lowest owned will get my click at the end of the day you know for this like 10K kind of range so in the nines as well you can kind of bucket those first three you could basically we have a freaking 5K range and yet we’ve only got those four guys in there right the other three should have been in the 10K range too I don’t know you know like what’s going on I think they I think they pulled a buyer and then kind of just forgot to change a setting and left the 5Ks open but that they you know didn’t plan on doing it the pricing was weird this week I will say honestly you’re you might be honest something there it it seems weird that they priced it this this way this week other weeks that’s made sense this week it was just like huh there’s a lot of cheap plays that are probably going to make the cut that shouldn’t pric that way right dude and like when when Scotty’s like 13,000 and then the the that’s when you have the 5K range now we got Tom Kim as our best guys like 11k made zero sense but what also makes zero sense is Kevin youu at the top of my model but you know what I actually don’t mind him we all know that he’s a stat model darling and we’ve seen this guy pop up in the top 10 so if you’re gonna just nuke it off the tea Kevin youu is your guy so love you know what I’ll be playing him in DFS for sure top 10 in a bit as well I think that’s the way to go with Kevin Yu because that’s his volatility you know he he’s got one of the craziest conversion rates from top 20 to top 10 he’s he’s got as many top 10 as he has top 20s you know like that’s what you want from a DFS perspective so I’m fine with him being my third guy because it it proves out you know in the track record there so um old Kevin University for me let’s I kind of like this actually it’s um we don’t have to keep like dodging the the sides of our borders there so let’s actually roll with it this way we actually look pretty crisp some Gourmet and cray cray guys here as we kind of knock out the rest of the board I’m going to filter on my model over here make sure that we have the right pricing and go from there we’ll start in call it the 8K range again I think that’s that’s a good starting point since we’ve spoken about the majority you know what let’s do yeah let’s do the Gourmet in the eight so we’ve got Michael thoron who’s not really showing up in anybody’s in models and won’t because we’ve got like zero daa on the guy but I’m a big fan hopefully he doesn’t become too popular this week what are your guys thoughts Mike uh Eric Mike Eric on Michael he is a nightmare for me because there’s thoron Allison and Michael Thor bonson and then I’ve got Erikson on my top right here so Eric talk to me about this guy I I don’t think I really can I mean um PJ Championship that that’s about it I he’s just not some I’m getting to this week pretty much he’s sandwiched in between other plays that are popping up much better than me it’s just like a zero click for me honestly just again I my data really likes Keith Mitchel Davis Thompson Chris Kirk a little bit uh you have like Adam Fenson Mark harber that likes a little bit better EVR was someone that kind of popped up for you he he ranks out better so it’s like there’s no possible way that I’m gonna get to him this week just where he’s priced and that just happens sometimes that’s that’s what it is for me this week bin I don’t know if he’s low enough owned I think you could probably convince me to go down that route yeah I mean he’s got the Matthew wolf traits you know to a degree so we’ll see what Matthew wolf I think won you a while ago and we’ll see what happens there but if he’s too popular if someone someone big kind of gets behind him and and steams him up then I’m out you know it’s easy peasy so I I will say though like I I don’t trust any of the ownership numbers that my model pulls in until Tuesday that’s why I don’t release it at Roto baller until we get a little bit more traction but the one name for me because there’s a lot of popular names in this $8,000 section like we’ve talked about the majority of them so far I think the one option if I’m really trying to figure out a way to get contrarian here I liked Ryan Fox he was inside of the top 15 on my model and right now I see him sub 10% ownership which you know is a third of what some of these guys or about a third of some of these guys that we’ve talked about and Ryan Fox is basically the same as Nikolai you know he’s got the same potential hasn’t shown up this year similar skill sets in a way you know like um I think you’re onto something you know if we can find these guys that can pop in this range we’ll see what cooks so Eric who is your favorite your Gourmet option in this range 8000s so what exactly do you mean when you say Gourmet is that is that a special term so Gourmet is like who are you willing to pay up for because you think you know like I know you’re on a f so I mean this is probably the worst segment for you to actually go through yeah because we’re speaking about food and stuff but like who who’s like priced high that you think’s a little bit little spendy but you’re willing to go there because you think they give you a gouret kind of characteristic from their skill set I mean it’s got to be Aaron Ry just for the reasons I mentioned about six trade make cuts for him great course history it’s it’s the price is too cheap he should be it’s not crazy but he should be higher than Wills Al torus like it’s not that much it’s you know $400 but that makes a big difference so it’s definitely him and then Keith Mitchell upside wise next like those are the two uh I do want to Echo I do really like that Ryan Fox call um he’s shown the upside as well somewhat recently so I I I I would say he could be a good leverage spot as well but to your point really Tuesday afternoon ownership really matters so be interesting to see where he comes in though yeah Fox is a perfect gouret option because he’s ranked 71st in my model but you know if we think about what he can get up to I like it you know like I think especially at that kind of ownership let’s dive into the sevens obviously my Gourmet is going to be Kevin Yu I love the little Kevin U caviar over there so that’ll be my guy there um along with some Taylor Moore as well I didn’t quite see him in the mix in my model but I’m a 24th across the board there for me Spence who’s your Gourmet in the sevens uh I mean I guess hoard would be the number one I I like Matt Wallace a lot also those are the two players in the $7,000 range that I’m trying to gain the most exposure to okay and who’s your cray cray whose price is the wrong price what price is crayfish cray cray why are they priced this High when they’re actually that bad I am very different than you guys on the players that or at least I should say you Byron because I guess you’ve named two of them so far um I’m going to be out on Eric Van royan um I’m even gonna be more out on Taylor Moore okay that’s going to work out wonderfully for one of us this week so that’s a good clip that’s good CLI right there this is why you tun to the RO to baller PGA shows that you can get no answers no I’m just kidding you pick your side I think that’s going to be a fun part about this is is you got to choose your narrative right and go with it so um give me your Gourmet and cray cray in the sevens yeah Mr Eric so probably would have been Matt Wallace I won’t use that so Adam spencon you know he’s been in some good form Adam spencon has been a weird play for me over the past like month and a half or so where he was someone that I was like all right we’re kind of playing him he’s a little bit too cheap getting some kind of lucky results out of him in all honesty RBC Canadian open 51st Place finish I was like I’m happy to get a cheap make cut there last week he was just like too cheap for a no cut event I was kind of happy to get to him top 20 that felt very lucky and so it’s kind of been a weird thing where he’s been like top 40 top 25 top 40 top 25 that consistency so we might be getting a top 40 out of him but he’s been someone that’s made 11 straight cuts I mean that’s pretty darn good has made two straight cuts at this tournament I’m not expecting like huge results from him but I am expecting him to make the cut which you know once we get lower in those the pricing here especially in this quality of field that starts to become a premium and so I do think he gives us a made cut again would have said Matt Wallace but happy to get to Adam Fenson go no I’m I’m sorry Eric I’ll let you finish your thought I just want to add one thing to that after you’re done no no go I was going to do the the second part of the segment so all I was going to say is if you look at this like to me and and I talked about two of these players in Van royan and Taylor Moore but of the golfer 7500 to 7900 the most playable option and the one that I do I’m very interested to get some exposure to would be the Adam senson play that you talked about I thought he was the legitimate option to consider in that range there what about so I’m a little bit surprised you guys said Mark hubber though he’s been playing pretty well I mean I know the form recently hasn’t been as good but tougher tracks for him as well this should be a better course for I’m kind of curious you guys’ thoughts Millie goats has had Mark H on his podcast so he’s obviously all the way up in the in the colon the lower colon over there for hubard but what happens with that lower colon is over the weekend everything good about Mark hubard just kind of scoots down the bed the leg there and um Mark hbert had the T3 at the the Pebble Beach pram that was only the third round right like he does this thing where it’s just like he plays such good golf and then the weekend shows up and then I don’t know what happens man it’s like being very disappointing I think outside of that T3 it’s only been a top 20 and I know this off the top of my head because I love Mark H he always breaks my freaking model but every time I bet him top 20 he’s like bro what are we doing you know so I’m out on him he just it’s disappointing all the time you know like why are we just falling back all the every single week it’s a fall back no Spence no 29th in my model 20th for upside which is a really weird answer to give like I I understand that BAS everything that 20th would be a fair price for him if the ownership ends up being low enough and that’s where we’re having complicated discussions here because we don’t know where the ownership’s going to land he might be the second name of that mix that I would be willing to consider um but for the most part every other option 7500 and up I’m probably out on yeah it’s it’s fascinating is that your cray cray play there Eric hub no so like EVR like I’m kind of right there he’s a good stat fit like he’s a player once again where I wouldn’t talk anyone out of him but he’s someone that I I would rather get to Ben Griffin harbard and and senson so kind of tougher there for me with him it’d probably be him like he’s probably a little bit too high price in comparison to everyone but not a play I would talk like anyone out of like terribly yeah um you guys can’t hear it but the South African flag over my left shoulder is busy screaming like curse words in Africans at you guys because this is this is no place for Eric F Roy and slander folks I’m just telling you that right now I’m just kidding you are more than welcome to Heir your opinions and that’s exactly why we got you on the show um both of you not liking him is not good omen for me but I’m gonna stick by my guy I love his upside I love what you know I’m not going to go and invest a top 40 bet on the guy if he’s low and I’ll be in if he’s not we’re out so um scooting on into the Sixers yeah we got a fun little picture of you which I’ll start off with I I really fancy Alejandra tosy I know that this is the the form is wish Washi it’s it’s very interesting but if we if we expecting this to play like a corn fairy Tour event right with the scoring getting to minus 25 nuke it make as many putts as birdies as you can Alandra tosy that’s how he got on the PGA T through the PG um KF so he’ll be my go may play I know the price the price point is kind of interesting at $6,600 when we got a 5k range but um he’ll be my one guy and then Jake knap obviously I love love his upside here go ahead and me who your Gourmet are Mr Eric and then Spence and then I’ll go with um we can go cray cray after that so I got to go a little bit uh bu here so this player went to my Alum Mo for one year and then he transferred and that’s Mona state if anyone the fun fact there he went to Bo Winona State it’s a Minnesota school yeah so and then he transferred to Boise State I believe is where he transferred does anyone anyone know uh Troy Merritt so obviously Troy Merritt has great course history here probably my most tilting out right back ever was when Cameron Davis chipped in for Eagle on 17 like that still stings me to this day and like every time this tournament pops up it still stings me because it was Troy May at 100 to one there only reason I bet him not the only reason but part of the reason why I bet him was because of you know those that stupid ties there but since then has played well at this track 14th and 17th Place finish had an eighth place finish the year prior to his second place runner-up finish there and he is someone that has never gonna really pop up too much for you but he’s also someone that is really kind of very hit or miss when he is on he’s probably gonna give you a top 10 finish when when he’s on his game he more hit or miss though that’s the thing with him he’s typically someone that’s Hit or Miss but kind of been on more recently I mean Miss cut at the RBC Canadian open that was plus one not terrible prior to that four straight made Cuts including a top 10 finish so given the fact that he has that tremendous course history and then given the price tag I’m really intrigued in that like I kind of in a weird way I kind of view him and Kevin Yu as similar plays like you’d be playing them for different reasons like Kevin is an elite that fit but kind of with the same logic where you’re chasing that upside Troy Merritt’s 63 and like sure more times than I he’s not going to give you a top 10 finisher but I think that possibility is there whereas other players in this range it’s just not there um f little fact about Troy Meritt I broke the news that he had The Yips I asked him about something on Twitter and he repli he quote tweeted it and said that I’ve Got The Yips and I was like should I go into like journalism now but no it was just by pure coincidence how I was just like curious and he was the one guy that replied and was like so honest about it and like he has such a soft spot in my heart because you know these guys they just show you like what they go through I mean I can’t imagine having to deal with that kind of stuff as a professional golfer you know that’s so embarrassing but there’s nothing you can do about it I’ve I’ve had the shanks and I was drinking vodka like in college before rounds just trying to like in my gatorade bottle trying to just like calm the nerves somehow and just get it together but it’s not fun when your game goes across the planes man so Spence gome in the sixes I hear Alma moer and it always propels me to talk about UNLV golfers if you want to throw all caution to the win this week and this is not the player that I’m going to necessarily give as The Gourmet pick because I think there’s safer routes to go but you want to talk about a golfer that’s going to probably be sub one% he has not played in a while because of injuries I don’t know where he’s at right now but if Taylor Montgomery had come to this tournament with any semblance of form and an injury concern that was not there I legitimately think he’d be priced as a top 30 player in this tournament I know the iron play is very questionable the short iron play though is where he’s the best you took if you take total driving you add it to short iron proximity and you add it to comp putting which would be just similar courses with similar green complexes and I mean you could throw Taylor Montgomery anywhere with the putter he’s going to look great he was number two in my model in that area he graded inside of the top 20 for me some of the safety concerns which would be what comes into play from the opposite end of the discussion but for a gpp answer if you’re just trying to throw caution to the win and find that sub one% play I really like Taylor Montgomery the name for me though that I feel safer punching uh or pushing when it comes push comes to shove with it would be Thor beorn at 6900 my model liked a lot about him uh he’s produced five made Cuts during his past six events he landed 16th in this field for that same category that I just talked about a second ago for Taylor Montgomery so I don’t think either one of them is going to be extremely popular I I kind of feel like olison has reached the point now to where when he was playing the PGA Tour events early in the year there was all this hype of what he was going to be and we haven’t necessarily gotten any of that but we’ve seen him turn it around a bit with those five made cuts that I’ve talked about in six events so there may be a safer floor here than meets the eye and I don’t think he’s gonna be more than seven or eight percent own and that’s probably pushing it on the high end yeah and he also has so much talent over at the dp’s kind of started showing up now so Spence who has a fly in the ointment and give us one reason why you don’t like them so Byron we’ve talked about this quite frequently on the show of my every single week having this with data golf where we go back and forth on the matchups and I gave Carson young over Ben Silverman in a matchup bet online pulled it off the board in two and a half minutes opened it back up at minus 138 data golf puts up their numbers it’s now moved back down into the minus 132 range we’ll see if it can continue falling into the territory or closer to the territory of what we got it at opening there but um as much as I like Silverman begin this year at some of these events he was outside the top 100 in my model the other name that I’ll at least throw out there because I think he will Garner more ownership than he probably should would be Cameron Champ just because of the distance play here I think everybody’s gonna want to get to Cameron Champ I if he’s not popular we can have a different discussion I’m still not going to get there from where he grades in my model but um I kind of feel like that the general public might go to Cameron Champ in his distance they do that man he did they did the same thing at Mexico and just he just did his and it was like this is infuriating they don’t deserve this so Eric who’s cray cray for you in the six can can I cheat and do a 7K play or no sure of course uh Eric Cole then just I feel like his name has been around in events a lot recently so people might be like interested to click him but he’s not going to pop up anyways if I didn’t want to cheat can I can I do flip the narrative on Taylor Montgomery because to your point like I do think if he had played a couple events he would be much higher price than he is and I think I think he’s actually going to be higher own for that reason like he’s the one player that I thought had name value in this range that like I would blindly want to click on you know just like oh Taylor Montgomery’s there he’s someone that could pop and and be there so I could see a lot more people just naturally doing that and maybe that’s just two of us kind of me overthinking or you know just both of us overthinking on one side or the other I think it’s a Shar play um at the same time if he is coming in high own like I I probably think he’s going to be a little bit higher own due to name value and so he would have want been the one play name value wise I would have said like I didn’t want to say a 6K play so would have been probably Montgomery but other than that Davis Riley just shows up wins a tournament and peels out and starts sucking again like I’m out on him he’s my cray cray you know like 6,800 I don’t care he’s like 119th in the model like what are we doing over here like how did he just win a I just can’t believe he he fended off Scotty Sheffer no one’s saying that like we the only person to do it was Jager like Davis Riley as well you know like but he’s not he’s a nobody like it just did that out of nowhere so he’s my cray cray option in the Sixers Eric can I ask you a question very quickly before we move on at what ownership percentage and this is somebody that you’re lower on to begin with I guess but at what ownership percentage would you deem Taylor Montgomery to be too high so I’d have to see like the obviously the L go down the less likely a players to make the cut so I would honestly just have to see datawise I would assume it’ be 5% honestly 5 to 4% so like like how much overweight would you want to be at that point like 10 probably right double the field so like that’s that’s the tough part so it really just depends on his ownership like I do think if he is lower than 5% that is a very sharp play if he is a little bit higher than that then probably someone I’m standing away from obviously the closer to 10% the less likely I would be to want to chase him is that kind of where you’re at too I think for me I would probably like the ownership that I would want to get on him would probably be 12 to 14% maybe 12 to 15% so if all of a sudden I’m not getting double The Leverage there if he comes in at you know seven and a half perc which maybe you are correct with that where you know look I mean there’s a lot of shows out there this is one of them I I don’t know if other people have talked about Taylor Montgomery but it just takes one or two discussions to happen and then all of a sudden he from I I I feel like JT Poston did this last week we came on this show Byron and I talked about JT Poston when he was goingon to be sub five% owned and then all of a sudden Wednesday rolled around and he’s one of the most popular players in his range and everything that we talked about this show kind of went in the opposite direction and there’s always that nature that it could occur but if he’s 5% I will play him for double or triple um if we start pushing higher than that I do believe that there’s a discussion to be had yeah and like I said that’s rooted in I I think other people are going to be mentioning him because he does have that name value and he does have that upside when when his game’s on like we have seen that it’s just he’s kind of like a play you can find a reason to play like for the reasons you mentioned like it’s not a bad call but again if we’re if we’re trying to find someone in that range that would have been the one I would have chose yeah and I didn’t even know he was injured so I you know I would have just clicked his name just looking at all the stuff and like all right let’s go so what what was his injury do do you know sper sorry I have tried to look this up and they have been very tight lipped from what I am able to see on this like he pulled out of the Valero and then he pulled out the next week and I know he shot an 80 during that round and I mean he’s gonna leave when things are not going right there I I don’t know the answer to that though I haven’t been able to find that because that that obviously matters to sure yeah I mean we’ve seen what does to Daniel berer and the short game right so we’ll we’ll see what what he gets up to but my gouret in the fives boys Kevin deti I just this dude is just off the tea he’s Elite dude like he’s got so much distance off the tea and he’s so so solid um give me that kind of skill set at $5,800 Price Tag I’m I’m in $5,500 price tag I’m in um someone that I don’t see doing anything around this kind of golf course is Zack Johnson at $5,500 I just if I had to pick some I mean there’s obviously cray cray options all the way through this 5K range but if there’s one person I’m not playing at Zack at a venue like this so Eric thoughts you give me a second because I feel like there’s two that are actually decent here I just wantan to I want to find sounds good go ahead spin I probably Double Down with the Carson young answer I don’t necessarily feel super confident about him but he does have a higher made cut great in my sheet than a lot of these other names I’m a little bit higher than you are Byron on Zack Johnson it doesn’t mean that I’m necessarily going to get them has Zack Johnson changed his nationality to South African is that what’s happened jpa I don’t know you’ll have to tell me on that one but it’s so difficult to throw a name out that is cray cray just because all right let’s let’s dit to cray cray and just go with the Gourmet because we’re not going to tell people we’re not to play in the fives let’s just go with we we will I’ll say Carson young then I guess okay Eric you found your guy yet well one of them is Pat and kazy and it’s just I don’t exactly want to give that but at the same time I think he’s going to be extremely low owned he is someone that did pop in some other events where he had like one bad round and then a good round where he missed the cut like he’s fine another one that was really popping though for me was actually Paton kazy uh Paton kire coming in off of a miscut at the RBC Canadian open otherwise he’ been pretty good A top 10 finish top 25 top 25 so he would he would probably be the play I’d want to get to the most especially probably not going to be high owned someone that can have upside decently good stat fit as well for this price tag like he’s you can find reasons to play him and so those are kind of the the two I would give that I was thinking of um the other one was Kevin tway but he’s he’s 6K so that’s okay you know that’s o tway we can we can kind of um ni let our let ourselves kind of just round up a touch here um it’s going to be a weird week with these with these guys that we going to have to I mean we got this free 5K range essentially this week you know so I think I think you got to play a few of them because especially this week if people are going to be sliding them in this is the week where the 5K range is the most likely to show up out of there not the majors you know because those guys just don’t have the skill sets required to get up there so without Scotty what the hell are we doing with this 5K range it blows my mind but we’re going to try and exploit it and and I build a lineup that had three 9k guys those three guys that top of the 9k range I would be shocked I mean thinking about it now that’s going to be likely how people like go ahead you know you could even I don’t know so some some wild stuff Doo showing up very late yes you could theoretically just do I don’t know if you guys are people that do hand builds or like if you do mix and match but if you’re doing hand builds you could just do three 9k plays toss in three different variations of a 5.6 or so K play hope that one of them makes the kind and gives you a top 20 finish you know like I don’t hate that idea right I mean that’s just the thing is like this is going to be with they’ve given us this chaotic week and then the pricing was just even more chaotic than the actual event that we’re going to be playing this tournament with so fascinating situation Spence give us your final thoughts on the week before we start getting out of you I think there a are a lot of players and it’s kind of what we’ve been talking about like just go from 6,300 and less there are a lot of playable Commodities down in that mix like I like the Patton kazy call from Eric he was somebody that popped in my model also there’s also a lot of UNLV golfers you can find all of them down there to just double back down on that one but um there are a handful of guys Troy Merritt Jacob Bridgeman Alex SMY Vincent Wy David skins Uh Kevin TWY graded fine in my model uh talked about Carson young like these are all I guess gck kigo if you want to name a UNLV golfer but these are top 60 players in my model that you can get really cheap that have what I’m typically looking for in gpp contest because the the worst type of low price plays to me are the high owned safety rating poppers the ones that are the ones that are going to be like inside of the top 30 of your safety rating and they’re 10% own you want to go the opposite route with it where they’re lower owned and they have that high upside in the build if you’re going to enter them in large field contests and uh we’ll see where the ownership ends up Landing with a lot of those names but I I would have a feeling that there will be a handful of them and we’ll figure that out over the next 48 hours but I do think there will be a handful of them that are very interesting playable Commodities that probably work inside of the top 20 of this tournament yeah I think it’s going to be a fun week Eric you do some wonderful stuff over on your variation of channels I believe you took your 9 to5 Sports and split it into the golf one too so go ahead and just tell all of our uh all of our friends here in the chats and and we’re going to listen what’s going on in your life and and plug away baby I really like your stuff a lot man I appreciate that um so yeah like this past season for the 2024 season I decided to split my YouTube channel up into two YouTube channels there’s the main one which is nineo five sports which is going to cover football once it comes back around but it’s mostly just beding now obviously that’s really huge and so I was so sick of um like having the gol niche market and then having the the huge betting Market on different sports it was just like defeating you know just like you see the analy on it so I made another YouTube channel which is doing pretty well ninet to-5 Golf and a lot of support from people out there as well it’s kind of a risky thing I would say to do but it’s worked out so yeah check that out if you guys want to follow me on Twitter as well um the nice thing about doing the 9o5 golf YouTube channels I feel like I’ve been able to intermingle with a lot of people a little bit more so on Twitter as well or X I guess now so it’s been nice it’s a good transition it’s kind of been good for was it is it mental health month for men or was that last month or whatever I think it’s been a long month so yeah it’s the end of June I think we’re fine so there you go that that’s part of it as well so it’s been nice um but yeah um yeah if you guys want to check out some more of my stuff 95 sports.com you guys can see me on X and YouTube as well so check that up and just I’m going to just keep going on Eric’s stuff here because my favorite thing about Spencer my favorite thing about Eric is you build your own stuff right like you you develop your own models and and when when the um the golf baseball came out you were one of the first few people to really have a tool for that and a very unique and and userfriendly tool man so you know you’ve got wonderful wonderful tools out there and I really I admire how you you know put together everything and and it’s just an incredible package out there so you guys definitely should go check that out um also go check out R balla because obviously this is R balla PGA show and use code t or maniac and you can wrap yourself 10% there so we really appreciate all of you for jumping in here also don’t forget to hit the like button on the way out subscribe to the road to ball PGA show and we’ll catch you guys next week let me answer Edward’s question very quickly
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Heyoo you got Eric on. Good stuff fellas. I liked this format a lot. Nice to have different sources and viewpoints for DFS these days.